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Forex Forum Archive for 11/25/2014

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Mtl JP 23:59 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

probably a good position. players may take off some of their shorts ahead of Draghi's drivel to maybe try to resell again from higher level

Mtl JP 23:25 GMT November 25, 2014
Nota bene

Speech in Helsinki by Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank
Time Thursday, 27 November 2014, at 1.30–2.30 pm.

-
In connection with the visit to Finland of Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Finland will organise a seminar at the University of Helsinki. President Draghi will deliver a speech on the European economy, after which the audience will have the opportunity to ask questions. The event will be held in English.

gc sf 23:19 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

it is long EUR @69 and short $CHF @64

Mtl JP 23:17 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

gc sf 21:59 / maybe better to let the EA do the trading (it should have no opinion) *-^

Brisbane Flip 22:46 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

You need to be patient.
This is almost always 3 steps forward and 2 steps back (most of the time 3 steps back -haha) and 1.2480 is only 50% of 1.26 (last weeks high) to 1.2360 (monday low).

Dollar is having a rest vs Yen and the baton is being passed around but there are always some clumsy baton changes.

dc CB 22:18 GMT November 25, 2014
Making Money and Losing Money?
Reply   
Hewlett Packard: HPQ
Non-GAAP EPS $1.06, up 5% Y/Y.
GAAP EPS $0.70, down 4% Y/Y.

gc sf 21:59 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

honestly 3 days ago I thought we would be trading 1.2220 .. now we are having to discuss the reasons for EUR being back @1.25 again.

really dislike this currency

Brisbane Flip 21:45 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

Like Japan for past 25years, Europeans savers forced in to buying sovereign debt and in most cases a percentage has to be German, Dutch etc. Problem is because Germany run budget surpluses there is very little to buy. Europe (like Japan before it) has huge personal wealth but these savings are funding Government debt hole and which should be stimulating the real economy. By using QE to fund government debt (like US) this could also this vast savings into the real (non govt) economy but Germans don't really see. care about the rest of Europe.
Instead a strong currency (e.g EURJPY up 50% from two years ago) will import more deflation until it becomes competitive.

dc CB 21:10 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

Bond vigilantes are deep in hibernation. lol
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Terrell E. Polk and her husband, Andrew S. Lombara, a bond trader at JPMorgan Chase, have been coming out to Snowmass for several years. “We tried other areas, but we decided we just liked Snowmass the best,” Ms. Polk said. Last year, the couple, who live on the Upper East Side, took the plunge and bought two condos at the Viceroy — a two-bedroom and a one-bedroom.

Ms. Polk said she recently discussed the idea of buying even more units at the Viceroy, and would have gone ahead if the couple had not already owned several other vacation homes, including two houses in Southampton and a place in Rosemary Beach, Fla.

Colorado Ski Country Homes for New Yorkers

GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT November 25, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 20:42 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

Re-hypothecatable High Quality Collateral.

can't do it with Cash - which most have a ton of
can't do it with Stox
Due to the masacre in commodities and PMetals... well those are now margin calls.

and lastly, what was the best performing assest this year...a "must have shown you own on your books", as the month is now essentially over.

Paris ib 20:41 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

ACC - consider the U.S. position as a nation with a savings deficit which needs to attract foreign capital. A fall in U.S. yields makes U.S. bonds less attractive to foreigners. In Europe there is no such need (to attract foreign capital) so no impact on the Euro per se. The two markets are very different.

Paris ib 20:39 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

JM - for now I reckon we have front running. A lot of this is Central Banks mucking around the market.

Paris ib 20:38 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

JM - if you consider that both Spain and Italy do not need to import foreign capital (that is they do not run current account deficits and have sufficient national savings - indeed Europe as a whole has started to run a substantial current account surplus - that is it has excess savings and is exporting capital) then yes this makes sense. The U.S. savings deficit (current account deficit) is around 3 percent of annual GDP. So the U.S. has to pay up to attract foreign capital. The only question is: what kind of premium does it have to pay?

NY JM 20:36 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

Those yields are depression/deflation levels unless they are front running QE from the ECB.

Sydney ACC 20:34 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

European yields are dragging the rest of the market down.

Ten year yields recorded as per Bloomberg:

Netherlands 0.877% -4 bp
Germany 0.75%
Spain 1.922% -5bp
Austria 0.906%

Germany's recorded low yield is 0.715%.

Most other countries recorded record yields too.

A sell off in the dollar because of declining yields is difficult to explain when yields elsewhere are on the same trajectory.

NY JM 20:31 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

Does Spanish and Italian yields under US yields with Spain below 2,% and Italy approaching 2% make any sense? It is peripheral yields that seem to be leading US rather than vice versa.

Bond vigilantes are deep in hibernation.

Paris ib 20:29 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

John - I was just wondering if the rally in Treasuries is more of the same: a reaction to central bank policy. That would explain the rally in Europe. In the U.S. I'm not so sure. It could all be little more than the start of silly season. So maybe we all need to take a deep breath and let all the position squaring, end of year stuff take place. That is maybe we just ignore everything that happens for the next month and come back and take a look at things in the New Year. It is possible to overthink things.

GVI Forex john 20:26 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

ib- great question. I have no idea!

Makes no sense to me. The economy is OK

I heard there was a huge bid to buy treasuries today. I have heard no details.

Paris ib 20:14 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

Are the markets wrong or is the market preparing for a collapse in economic growth? Anyone got a clue?

dc CB 20:12 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall

can't get enough of that US Paper. Dec Treas Futures rolling into March...looks like convering shorts and going long ????.
_____________________________________________________

ZH reports:
If yesterday's 2 Year stopping through auction was best described as "blistering", then today's $35 billion sale of 5 Year paper, which again stopped through the When Issued 1.614% by a whopping 1.9 bps, was nothing short of a scorcher.

Scorching Demand For 5 Year Treasurys: Indirect Bid Highest On Record

Paris ib 19:50 GMT November 25, 2014
USD falls as Yields fall
Reply   
Without the support of rising interest rates the USD is under pressure. With the FED on hold for the next six months or so there is no reason to expect yields to rise. More downside for the buck and stocks. Sell those USD rallies. :-))

GVI Forex Blog 18:37 GMT November 25, 2014
Mixed U.S, Data. GDP Beats, But Setiment Surveys Miss. German 3Q14 GDP Unrevised
Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS: GB- GDP, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan, New Home Sales, Pending Homes, Weekly Crude, 7-yr

Mixed U.S, Data. GDP Beats, But Setiment Surveys Miss. German 3Q14 GDP Unrevised

GVI Forex john 18:30 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    WEDNESDAY
    09:30 GB GDP Widest Economic Indicator
    12:30 US PCE defl y Top Fed Inflation Measure.
    12:30 US Personal Income Key to demand
    13:30 US Initial Claims Weekly Jobless
    13:30 US Dur Goods Industrial demand
    13:45 US Chicago PMI regional Indicator
    13:55 US U Mich final Long term Sentiment Survey
    15:00 US New Homes Sales Housing Metric
    15:00 US Pending Homes Predictor of Existing Homes Sales 15:30 US EIA Crude Impacts Spot oil prices
    18:00 TRY 7-yr Treasury borrowing
    23:30 JP Core CPI Japan inflation
    23:50 JP Ind Out industrial activity
    THURSDAY
    US Holiday
    OPEC Meeting All day
    8:55 DE unem Kchg German unemployment
    9:00 DE fl HICP Key Metric for ECB
    13:30 CA Cur/Acct  Canadian external Accounts
    23:50 JP Retail Sales  Consumer Demand
    FRIDAY
    7:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer Demand
    10:00 EZ FL HICP Key ECB Metric
    12:30 CA GDP  Widest Economic Measure
    23:30 JP Unemployment 3.60% 3.50%

GVI Forex john 18:10 GMT November 25, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

25 November--  17:55 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Markets remain in a mild RISK ON posture late Tuesday with equities in Europe closing mixed to higher. Bond yields remain mostly higher. U.S.data today were sharply split with 'GDP strong but two sentiment surveys disappointingly soft. Final German 3Q14 GDP data were unrevised.  This is a holiday shortened week in the U.S

  • In forex, the USD is mostly lower. The EUR is mixed on its major crosses. Gold and oil prices are lower.
  • In the Far East, equities ended mixed. Japan reopened after a local holiday..The Nikkei gained and JGB yields are steady.
  • European bourses closed broadly higher. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are down sharply. European peripheral bond yields are mostly lower.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is steady. U.S. shares are up.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:50 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



I prefer the key one hour trendline, currently at 1.2510, as the key on top (along with 1.2504)

london red 17:39 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

euro. hourly trendline now 124565. supports current move. last month high 12485. if looking like a close abv here (end of month ie friday) will ruffle a few feather and some short covering. while below a close no higher than 12430 is favourite.

jkt abel 17:22 GMT November 25, 2014
sell gbpusd

adding short if 1.5720-30 seen,same stop

Mtl JP 17:21 GMT November 25, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

It is very regrettable that 10-yr yields are just around 2.3%

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:17 GMT November 25, 2014
A Thanksgiving Trading Tale
Reply   


One of my forex trading tips is not to be complacent, which is easy to do in a week like this where the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is not generally one when big bets are made. You can already see forex traders resigned to a holiday week where many in the US take an extended break. This does not mean you should not stay alert as I will explain in this Thanksgiving Tale.

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale

jkt abel 17:17 GMT November 25, 2014
sell gbpusd
Reply   
sold 1.5709, stop 1,5756

nw kw 17:14 GMT November 25, 2014
Global Markets News

Canadian house price rises are to keep presser for rate hike called for may but can be stalled for the USA fed
BNN.

Mtl JP 17:05 GMT November 25, 2014
Global Markets News

TORONTO (Reuters) Nov 25, 2014 - Canadian house price rises are expected to slow in 2015 after another strong year and homebuilding will gradually cool from elevated levels, but a property market crash still looms as a risk, according to a Reuters poll.

PAR 16:59 GMT November 25, 2014
Global Markets News

GDP revisions are looking to the past .

GVI Forex Blog 16:52 GMT November 25, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The very good third quarter US GDP numbers gave markets a real sugar rush this morning, putting US futures in the black and sending European shares out to their highs. The rush did not last and the S&P500 is in the red at its lows and Europe has given up some or all of their gains

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: US Q3 GDP Sugar High Wore Off Fast

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:28 GMT November 25, 2014
Holiday Travel
Reply   
Wednesday before Thanksgiving is the busiest traveling day of the year and with forecasts for bad weather in the Northeast tomorrow, perhaps some will leave today. This may account for a book squaring Tuesday.

Mtl JP 16:26 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Euro-area financial institutions should consider creating securities that combine sovereign bonds to give the European Central Bank more assets to buy, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.

nw kw 16:23 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

new usa gov gets power ante nuke poss stop Iran oil

GVI Forex Blog 16:21 GMT November 25, 2014 Reply   
November 25, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 26. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: GB- GDP, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan, New Home Sales, Pending Homes, Crude, 7-yr

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 26, 2014

Mtl JP 16:19 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

loon correlates to crude pricing at about .70
maybe if crude bumps another $20 bucks loon goes to 1.20

GVI Forex john 16:17 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: GB- GDP, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan, New Home Sales, Pending Homes, Crude, 7-yr

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- GDP, Distributive Trades
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan, New Homes Sales, Pending Homes, Weekly Crude, Natural Gas, 7-yr


london red 16:17 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

loonie. support held well, still no hourly close under 11243 but still all to play for until a higher high. but if we get one (north of 11316) should yield a retest of 11400. the pullback has yielded a good amount of lower highs and lows so a break of this trend should be pretty clean and they are likely to follow it at the very least initially (11362)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:15 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455

1.2481 is the current 200 hour mva (interesting is that it is almost a flat line with little slope)

PAR 16:09 GMT November 25, 2014
FERGUSON
Reply   
St. Louis County police released records early Tuesday showing 61 people were arrested in Ferguson on charges including burglary and trespassing. And St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay said 21 people were arrested in the city.
Heavily armed police fired pepper spray and smoke canisters to disperse the crowds of protesters. Police seized a .45-mm. automatic handgun as well.

"We have no loss of life, but I am disappointed the night turned out this way," St. Louis Police Chief Jon Belmar said.

Belmar said he heard more than 150 shots ring off in the night.

"What I've seen tonight is probably worse than the worst night we had in August," Belmar said.

GVI Forex john 16:07 GMT November 25, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

2.30% key psychological level in 10yr we haven't been down here since October..

GVI Forex john 16:00 GMT November 25, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

10-yr 2.297, -0.9

PAR 15:57 GMT November 25, 2014
CRUDE
Reply   
BRENT, U.S. CRUDE OIL FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES AFTER VENEZUELA SAYS MEETING WITH SAUDI MINISTER DID NOT AGREE ON ANY OUTPUT CUT

london red 15:54 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455

euro. cable. watch price action into close of current hour. on cable level to watch is 15721 euro the 200 hour ma.

Amman wfakhoury 15:46 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455

it may go up and to 12455 several times.

Mtl JP 15:33 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

john a reminder about the Commerce Department's GDP release:
it is ONLY an ... estimate

Belgrade Knez 15:27 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455


Amman,

you posted your view when price already at 1.2455

too late

GVI Forex john 15:25 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Trying to look at the Conference Board Survey as objectively as possible. The short-term outlook is suddenly looking a little toppy to me. We will have to see how the next few figures come in.

Amman wfakhoury 15:22 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455
Reply   
any rise above 12455 will return to it sell above it.


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


london red 15:11 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

staying abv trendline 1.24558 keeps upside momentum alive and break of 200 hr 12482 should take us to prev low and old fib at 12502/05

GVI Forex john 15:07 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Data Charts
CHART: Univ of Michigan & Conference Board Sentiment. Conference Board Survey much weaker than expected.





Amman wfakhoury 15:06 GMT November 25, 2014
Wfakhoury's call

1201 is the return..so we need the close above it

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:05 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

1.2480 = 50%

1,2508 = 61.8%

High 1.2479

PAR 15:03 GMT November 25, 2014
MORE QE ?
Reply   
United States Consumer Confidence came in at 88.7 below forecasts (96) in November


United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell from previous 20 to 4 in November

Central Kwun 15:02 GMT November 25, 2014
Wfakhoury's call

1201 first, right then 1205.7? thx

Mtl JP 15:02 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

so GDP overshoots and cons conf undershoots ?

Amman wfakhoury 15:02 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

UK CH 14:33 GMT 11/25/2014
Amman. What happens when a currency does not return to your level and keeps moving the wrong way. Do you give a stop with your signal? These are no longer low vol markets.
--------------------
system has solutions for all issues.

GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

two misses

GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Conference Board Survey November 2014

U.S. Data Charts





NEWS ALERT

88.7 vs. 96.0 exp. vs. 94.5 (r 94.1)prev.


RELEASE: Consumer Confidence Data



TTN: Live News Special Offer




Amman wfakhoury 14:59 GMT November 25, 2014
Wfakhoury's call

GOLD 1205.70 confirm 1201...we need 1 hr close above return to go 1205.70

GVI Forex john 14:59 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Richmond Fed Index November 2014

U.S. Data Charts





NEWS ALERT
+4 vs. +17 exp. vs. +20 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:57 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

Look at the one hour chart I posted in this thread. 1.2504 was the breakdown level last week so the level on top (suggests 1.2500) that needs to hold to maintain it.

Central Kwun 14:53 GMT November 25, 2014
Wfakhoury's call
Reply   
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Master, any direction on gold please

PAR 14:52 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

US yields keep dropping . Probably because of the snow .

london red 14:51 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

think even friday move higher for usd felt a little under duress. since yen made the high people have been looking for a reason to take profits on usd. 11735 now massive on yen.
watch 127 on the dec 10 for more clues on yield chris.

Belgrade Knez 14:49 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed


Amman,

nice call .... well done.

GVI Forex 14:47 GMT November 25, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

R1 = 1.2469 vs. high so far at 1.2465

London Chris 14:45 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

Could the weaker usd be as simple as US bond yields not rising despite the better GDP?

Mtl JP 14:42 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

wfakhoury = devastating call

UK CH 14:33 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

Amman. What happens when a currency does not return to your level and keeps moving the wrong way. Do you give a stop with your signal? These are no longer low vol markets.

Amman wfakhoury 14:26 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

signal says any decline below 12414 will return to it.
so the close of 1 hr bar above 12414 will take us to 12455.

Belgrade Knez 14:09 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed


Amman,

are you still looking for 1.2455 on EU?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:09 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed



1.2444 stands in your way

Technicals have worked perfectly so far with former support becoming resistance. This makes 1.2444 the key level on top.

Mtl JP 14:08 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

break south of 12360/50 probably needs some new + additional catalyst

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS


BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Case Shiller-20 August 2014

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+4.90% vs. +4.60% exp. vs. +5.70% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 13:56 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

+ve surprise no doubt about it. business investment creates jobs and thats encouraging. inventory gain a small blot on an otherwise decent report.

PAR 13:52 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Some of the factors supporting this upward revision are quite encouraging - for instance, the upwards revision to equipment and software spending (business investment, now 10.7% from 7.2% initially), and personal consumption (consumer spending now 2.2% from 1.8%), and residential investment (homebuilding - now 2.7% from 1.8%).”

“There was, as expected, a slight additional drag from the net export sector, worth about $20bn over the quarter (annualised rate). And this more than offset the further increase in inventory building (revised up about $16bn) over the same period.”

“Whilst some parts of this release do suggest that the US economy has more momentum than initially indicated, both inventories and the defence component of government spending are likely to revert to being considerable drags in the fourth quarter, taking GDP growth closer to 2.0% than 3.0%, and the profile for GDP will remain very choppy, masking an underlying growth rate of between 2.5% and 3.0%.”

“At the margin, these figures make it easier for the Fed to move towards pushing rates higher next year. But a lot can happen between now and the April 2015 rate hike the market is pricing in, including much weaker inflation and a possible re-run of the 2013 government shutdown, and we are taking nothing for granted.”

london red 13:51 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

euro. data gap filled now needs to move below 12409/02 for 12360/50, otherwise they might get bored and try yest high and trendline.

GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Canada: Retail Sales mixed vs. estimates.

Canada Charts

PAR 13:48 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

With US economy growing at almost 4 % FED may consider raising rates sooner rather than later .

GVI Forex john 13:44 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Final 2Q14 Revised annualized GDP. upwardly revised mostly inventories.




PAR 13:37 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

US economy much stronger than anticipated . Are Yellen and the FED missing something ?

NY JM 13:35 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Looking ahead: Forecasts for the US 4Q GDP is around 2.7%

GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Canada: Retail Sales September 2014

Canada Charts





NEWS ALERT
Headline: +0.80% % vs. 0.50% exp. vs. -0.30% (r -0.20%) prev.
X-Autos:+0.10% % vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -0.30%(r -0.2%) prev.


RELEASE: Canadian Retail Sales




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:31 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

3Q14 GDP

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+3.90% vs. +3.20% exp. vs.+3.50% prev.


RELEASE: U.S. GDP


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 13:26 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

euro hourly trendline, as yet unbeaten, at 12455, while a fib at 50.

london red 13:24 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

loonie. suggested cad sales will beat and us gdp misses, so pair may test 11225/43. i suspect it will rebound to 11266 or higher by the close if those lower levels seen. the recent low of 11191 should be safe assuming the recent correction is over. below there is an imp fib at 11143 which could be targeted on a bounce to 11225/43 in the event of a break, but in that case stops below recent low of 11122 should be safe.

UK CH 13:21 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

I wish it was 1.3425!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

prague mark 12:57 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3425 Target: 1.3475 Stop: 1.34

1:3 done long

PAR 12:31 GMT November 25, 2014
YIELDS

FXStreet (London) - Dutch government debt is the latest of the European sovereign bond market to record new record lows.

10-year Netherlands government bonds declined to a record low at 0.8811 percent today, down from a session high of 0.9115 percent.

The move lower follows declines across the benchmark Eurozone sovereign bond space, with only Greece experiencing a pickup in yields. Only Portugal, Italy and Greece are borrowing above the 5-year average German 10y bond yield.

GVI Forex john 12:19 GMT November 25, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD & EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




gc sf 12:12 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

I just looked at NZD Monthly chart and count something like 17 times it threatened to break down - but never has as yet.

It is flattening out though so maybe tomorrow Asia will work out better .. 7685 ish.

PAR 12:09 GMT November 25, 2014
YIELDS
Reply   
Yields dropping sharply around the world are boosting world stock markets .Spain 10y 1.93 , US 10 y 2.29 ,
German 10Y 0.70 etc.

Also China thinking about QE and extraordinary monetary actions .

GVI Forex 11:21 GMT November 25, 2014
audusd

AUD/USD currency pair was at 4-year low at 0.8530 after RBA's Lowe reiterated the view that the AUD exchange rate was unusually high (Trade the News)

GVI Forex Blog 11:21 GMT November 25, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The USD/JPY was off its Asian session lows of 117.80. the pair moved lower after the meeting minutes from the controversial Oct 31st BOJ decision had some members express concerns of a weak yen against small businesses

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet session as Germany confirms it avoided recession

HK PC 10:41 GMT November 25, 2014
audusd
Reply   
Why is audusd so weak? Will it see 86 again?

Mtl JP 10:38 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Carney: More likely that inflation will fall below 1%

GVI Forex Blog 10:36 GMT November 25, 2014
Equity Markets Pushing Higher. German 3Q14 GDP Unrevised. U.S. GDP Revision Due
Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS: CA- Retail Sales, US- Case-Shiller, GDP, Richmond Fed, CB Cons Conf, 5-yr

Equity Markets Pushing Higher. German 3Q14 GDP Unrevised. U.S. GDP Revision Due

GVI Forex john 10:25 GMT November 25, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

25 November--  10:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Markets remain in a  RISK ON posture early Tuesday with equities in Europe continuing to advance. On the other hand, bond yields are mostly higher.There has been no impact from the release of final German GDP for 3Q14. Data were unrevised.  This is a holiday shortened week in the U.S.

  • In forex, the USD is modestly higher in quiet trade. The EUR is mixed on its major crosses. Gold and oil prices are higher.
  • In the Far East, equities ended mixed. Japan reopened after a local holiday..The Nikkei gained and JGB yields eased.
  • European bourses are broadly higher. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mostly lower.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is steady. U.S. share futures are up.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

GVI Forex john 09:58 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Global-VIew EZ and German Charts
EARLIER: German GDP unchanged.


GVI Forex john 09:48 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

German GDP 3Q14 Final



Earlier NEWS Release
QQ: +0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
yy: +1.20% vs. +1.20% exp. vs. +1.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

london red 09:14 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

kiwi. just moved below daily trendline 7799. has not closed below this for some time but has traded below it a couple of times. recent low of 10 day ma comes in at 7766, so anything below there will confirm the break of the daily trendline. until then you stay short but have to be cautious.

Paris ib 09:04 GMT November 25, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Thanks Ginko. So that's a full house: prices rising everywhere including Japan while Central Banks go with 'deflation' and Government borrowing continues to crowd out private borrowing at 'doctored' interest rates. Meanwhile the so-called economic recovery fails to show up. What a surprise.

Over in Australia it looks like they are gearing up to replace the Mad Monk with another ex Goldman alumni as iron ore tanks, mining takes a hit and the rest of the economy begins to enter a slump. The AUD is looking down a black hole.

USD/JPY still a 'sell on rallies' though it might take a while before it becomes an outright sell.

And the 'war on China and Russia' continues. No repercussions for the massive JPY devaluation but I read somewhere that the U.S. is looking into imposing tariffs on China.

European stock markets still have a way UP to go but the Nikkei and the U.S. markets are hitting the ceiling. It might be dull into the end of the year but 2015 looks like it will be fun. :-)

Calling AUD lower

Amman wfakhoury 08:45 GMT November 25, 2014
EURUSD 12455 confirmed
Reply   
Still awaiting 12455 to reach as per my yesterday signals


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


Amman wfakhoury 08:43 GMT November 25, 2014
Gold ready for 20-30 $ move
Reply   

The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Gold ready for 20-30$ move .mostly up if keeps above 1200.


Hong Kong AceTrader 06:13 GMT November 25, 2014
AceTrader Nov 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Nov 2014
EUR/USD - ...... Comments by ECB Council member Christian Noyer who is speaking at the Paris EUROPLACE International Financial Forum in Tokyo said, quote:
'when policy rates go to zero, central banks must resort to unconventional measures to avoid involuntary policy tightening;
very low inflation can aggravate situation because this increases real interest rates;
monetary policy must aim at influencing both nominal rates and inflation expectations;
ECB's purchases of covered bonds, abs will ease bank funding conditions, bring down risk premiums on private assets;
ECB's action on nominal interest rates has been strong and efficient; governing council has unanimously stated commitment to using additional unconventional policy within its mandate if needed to fight low inflation;
governing council made unanimous commitment to protect against misperception ECB is more tolerant of low inflation;
governing council statement on balance sheet size is not a firm commitment but an expectation;
governing council statement on balance sheet is clear indication further policy action will not be limited by quantitative restraints;
communication about balance sheet size can help bring inflation expectations more in line with ECB's definition of price stability;
Japan benefits from high wage flexibility, which helps competitiveness but may increase vulnerability to deflation;
in Europe, nominal wages are rigid and keep growing, which provides protection against deflation risk.'

hk ooozmeeh 06:03 GMT November 25, 2014
BOJ MINUTES
Reply   
TOKYO--Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda on Tuesday defended the central bank's decision last month to boost its stimulus measures despite a split vote, saying the central bank needed to show its strong resolve to beat deflation.

In a speech to business leaders in Nagoya, central Japan, Mr. Kuroda even said he is willing to "continue" to act to ensure that the central bank will achieve its 2% inflation target by around next year.

Earlier in the day, the central bank released the summary of its Oct. 31 policy board meeting, where the proposal to implement additional easing measures passed by a thin 5-4 vote.

The minutes showed a sharp divide between Mr. Kuroda and some other board members over the effects of the new steps. Some members warned that the cost of the measures outweigh their benefits and questioned Mr. Kuroda's fundamental strategy to boost inflation expectations through the expanded easing.

But Mr. Kuroda said the BOJ's commitment to its price target is one of the "two engines" that influence such expectations. The other is the actual inflation rate, which is now around 1%.

"Therefore, the bank has considered it necessary to pursue monetary easing (more aggressively)...as well as to reiterate its unwavering resolution" to achieve its 2% price target, Mr. Kuroda said.

Shrugging off speculation that a divisive board could make it hard for him to ramp up further easing measures, Mr. Kuroda said there is no change in his stance to adjust policy "without hesitation" to make 2% inflation take hold if needed. "To achieve the price stability target, the bank has been taking 'action' and will continue to do so," he said.

GVI Forex Blog 03:45 GMT November 25, 2014 Reply   
Dow (17,817.90, +0.04%) traded in one of its flattest range days in quite a long time. The next

Morning Briefing : 25-Nov-2014 -0346 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:59 GMT November 25, 2014
AceTrader Nov 25: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Nov 2014 01:37GMT

USD/JPY - 118.06... Despite dlr's brief rise above NY res at 118.48 to 118.57 ahead of Asian open at the beginning of release of BoJ meeting minutes, price retreated subsequently as the minutes showed 4 out of the 9 BoJ board members were opposed to conducting additional easy policy because they worried about side-effects after expanding an aggressive easing program.
Dlr's intra-day fall accelerated after comments from BoJ's Governor Kuroda and then tanked to 117.80 before recovering.

Although broad-day buying of yen in Tokyo morning suggests selling dlr/yen pair on recovery is recommended, investors can look to book profit on next intra-day fall as last Friday's bottom at 117.36 (reaction low from 119.98 top) is expected to hold ahead of the speech from BOJ deputy governor Nakaso at 04:00GMT, followed by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda press conference at 04:45GMT.

Offers from various accounts are noted at 118.15/20 and then 118.30-40 with mixture of offers and stops located at 118.55-65.
On the downside, bids are placed at 117.70/65, 117.55/50 with stops emerging just below 117.30.

Tuesday will see the release of Japan's BoJ meeting minutes, New Zealand's RBNZ inflation expectation, German GDP, U.S. prelimary GDP, PCE prices and Redbook, Canada's retail sales and U.S. monthly home price and consumer confidence.

gc sf 01:33 GMT November 25, 2014
Asia

Yup .. I really thought we could show some initiative today - if the Nikkei could have powered on

but its a holiday Lull .. and once Nikkei dropped away that was it..

I don't have anything Yen on the books at present and just few range shorts in EUR @40 - but who knows with that when London come in.

Really hoping there is more to this week than this.

Provo John 01:12 GMT November 25, 2014
Asia

Sf, I guess we wait until the gap is filled and see from there.

Brock 01:12 GMT November 25, 2014
Gbp/Jpy
Reply   
Any ideas why pair is sinking.
Bought at 184.73 .
Took profit.

NY JM 01:06 GMT November 25, 2014
Asia

118 trades for 5th day in a row.

gc sf 00:57 GMT November 25, 2014
Asia
Reply   
the story of Asia so far :

Nikkei (in CFD terms) opened above 17500 traded up to 17555 and $yen tracked it fairly closely

we then sold off 100 points in Nikkei and $yen dropped down to 108.10 level

that has sucked the life out of the market here now .. so will be a waiting game for London.

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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