Tallinn viies 22:42 GMT November 27, 2014
Saudi budget based on $45 oil price ‘ideal’ Friday, 28 November 2014 - 00:00 Saudi budget based on $45 oil price ‘ideal’
Saudi economists expect oil prices to decline further in the coming years if producing countries inside and outside the OPEC fail to reach an agreement to stop the downward trend.
They have also advised the government to peg the oil price between $45 and $50 while preparing the national budget for 2015.
“The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries alone cannot determine market prices now because it controls only 40 percent of the market and there are several players with conflicting interests,” Ehsan Buhulaiga, a prominent economist, told Arab News.
He emphasized that the budget would not be affected as long as the price stays above $85 per barrel, adding that the country’s huge reserves would offset the budget. “The lack of solidarity and vision has weakened the OPEC,” he observed.
OPEC ministers are expected to reach a consensus during their meeting in Vienna on Thursday. Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Ali Al-Naimi believes the market would stabilize itself.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has failed to reach an agreement with Russia, Mexico and Venezuela to cut output.
Buhulaiga said the market is now determined by demand and supply. Producers are competing with one another, creating an over supply that has brought down crude prices by 32 percent since June.
Mohammed Salim Sabban, an oil expert and a former economic adviser to the minister of petroleum and mineral resources, predicted oil prices would continue to dip, despite OPEC’s efforts to stabilize market.
He also stated that oil prices would never cross $100 again. “It will be a thing of the past.”
Sabban said there was nothing surprising in the price plunge for those who follow international market developments as they see some countries adopting policies to reduce consumption. “Depression in Europe, China and some developing countries has brought down the demand for oil,” he pointed out.
He said efforts to push prices above $100 had two negative results. It encouraged consumers to think of alternative energy resources and producers to increase output. US shale oil output has reached 3.5 million barrels. Shale oil would remain in the market even if prices hit at $60, he said.
Source: Arab News
Tallinn viies 22:38 GMT November 27, 2014
audis block OPEC output cut, oil price sinks further Friday, 28 November 2014 - 00:00 Saudis block OPEC output cut, oil price sinks further
Saudi Arabia set the stage for more blood-letting on oil markets after blocking on Thursday calls from poorer members of the OPEC oil exporter group for output cuts to arrest a slide in crude prices.
Benchmark Brent oil fell more than $4 to $73.50 (46.74 pounds) a barrel on fears that the global oversupply will build up in coming months as Saudi Arabia kept silent about what would prompt it to consider production cuts.
With an OPEC statement making no mention of any extraordinary meeting or a need for members to stop overproducing, Thursday's decision represents a major shift in the group's policies away from its usual drive to defend prices.
The outcome effectively means a battle for market share between OPEC and non-OPEC countries as a boom in U.S. shale oil production and weaker economic growth in China and Europe have already sent crude prices down about a third since June.
"It was a great decision," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said as he emerged smiling after around five hours of talks.
Asked whether OPEC had decided not to cut production and to roll over existing output policies, he replied: "That is right".
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Rafael Ramirez left the meeting visibly angry and declined to comment on the outcome.
Wealthy Gulf states have made clear they are ready to ride out the weak prices that have hurt the likes of Venezuela and Iran - OPEC members that pressed for output cuts to stabilise the market and ease pressure on their budgets, but cannot afford to make any themselves.
A price war will also seriously hurt top non-OPEC exporter Russia, which has clashed with Saudi Arabia over Moscow's support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Russia is already suffering from Western sanctions over its actions in Ukraine and needs oil prices of $100 per barrel to balance its budget.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accounts for a third of global oil output.
If it were to cut exports without similar action by its competitors, it would lose further market share, including to North American shale oil producers.
Gulf producers could withstand for some time the market-share battle that could drive down prices further, thanks to their large foreign-currency reserves. Members without such a cushion would find it much more difficult.
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Ali Saleh al-Omair said OPEC would have to accept any market price of oil, whether it were $60, $80 or $100 a barrel. Iraq's oil minister, Adel Abdel Mehdi, said he saw a floor for oil prices at $65-70 per barrel.
A price war might make some future shale oil projects uncompetitive due to high production costs, easing competitive pressures on OPEC in the longer term.
"We interpret this as Saudi Arabia selling the idea that oil prices in the short term need to go lower, with a floor set at $60 per barrel, in order to have more stability in years ahead at $80 plus," said Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix consultancy.
"In other words, it should be in the interest of OPEC to live with lower prices for a little while in order to slow down development projects in the United States," he added.
The North American shale boom has taken many at OPEC by surprise.
"The U.S. is producing in a very, very bad manner. Shale oil, I mean it is a disaster from the point of view of climate change and the environment," Foreign Minister Ramirez, who represents Venezuela at OPEC, said.
OPEC agreed to meet next on June 5, 2015.
Source: Reuters (By Alex Lawler and David Sheppard, Additional reporting by Amena Bakr, Rania El Gamal and Shadia Nasralla; Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Dale Hudson and David Stamp)
23401 01 20:44 GMT November 27, 2014
Guys pls can I meet anyone here that can be giving me signals
nw kw 20:26 GMT November 27, 2014
I did see most commodities are priced in eurs so I hade to rethink big pitcher
GVI Forex john 19:30 GMT November 27, 2014
Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
23:30 JP Core
CPI Japan inflation
23:50 JP Retail Sales Consumer Demand
23:50 JP Ind Out industrial activity
7:00 DE Ret
Sales Consumer Demand
10:00 EZ FL
HICP Key ECB Metric
12:30 CA GDP
Widest Economic Measure
0 US Markets Close Early
Mtl JP 18:14 GMT November 27, 2014
dc CB 17:5 funny chart does not forecast $0.0 , much less negative
prague mark 17:56 GMT November 27, 2014
Entry: 1.2473 Target: 1.2533 Stop: 1.2433
Tallinn viies 17:27 GMT November 27, 2014
GVI Forex john 15:28 - I did not take it as a critics.
Im saying that oil started to go up on 2000-2001 from 25 usd barrel. eurusd was trading at 0.85 at that time. then oil went up to 145 usd barrel and eurusd was 1.6000. both are falling now. todays decision by Opec today gave permission to markets find a new floor where low price will force oil shut down part of the oil production. open thinks first US shale oil guys closing the business but I doubt about it.
other sure thing could be if oil is falling only way for russians can keep budget in order to let weak rouble to compansate lower oil price.
Mtl JP 17:16 GMT November 27, 2014
“We are not sending any signal to anyone, we are just trying to have a fair price,” OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri
dc CB 17:11 GMT November 27, 2014
a big part is still that Pipeline for NatGas that they want to build to reach the European market. Problamo numero uno still remains Syria - Assad - Russia backed. Break Russia = build pipeline.
The PipeDream from the hashish filled hooka.
jkt abel 17:03 GMT November 27, 2014
usd correction is over?
kl fs, just like my warning a few days ago, another surprise snap back rally in store re. cable IMHO, good luck
kl fs 16:57 GMT November 27, 2014
viies, so are you selling euro big here for 1.20? stop above 1.2550 will do?
kl fs 16:45 GMT November 27, 2014
now it seems oil is a renewable resource ;)
nw kw 16:42 GMT November 27, 2014
saudis preparing to trade gold in chin.a
Mtl JP 16:39 GMT November 27, 2014
maybe ... maybe saudis preparing to drop asking dollar fiat for their crude ?
nw kw 16:34 GMT November 27, 2014
Saudis oil spread to usa oil reported a small oil war
Mtl JP 16:34 GMT November 27, 2014
john 16:25 - re saudis ... to drive out the high cost (shale oil and tar sand) producers - and to think that Harper's Canada is fighting something called isis ...
kl fs 16:32 GMT November 27, 2014
plus to punish Putin?
GVI Forex john 16:25 GMT November 27, 2014
wti breaks below $70 LOD 69.11
I assume this is what they were intending, namely to drive out the high cost (shale oil and tar sand) producers...
CAD getting slammed.
Mtl JP 16:23 GMT November 27, 2014
usd correction is over?
as wti just touching 69.00 I chuckle at the Saudis willing to take less n less of the backed-by-nothing-other-than-bombs US fiat for their crude.
kl fs 16:16 GMT November 27, 2014
usd correction is over?
JP there is no tomorrow for cad, they are chasing it higher it seems
kl fs 16:07 GMT November 27, 2014
usd correction is over?
i'll be selling gbpusd again if pops up around 1.5750, stop above recent high will do
Mtl JP 16:03 GMT November 27, 2014
On a straight line basis, at average -35 cents per day, crude will be retail at $0.00 in 200 trading days. Maybe in this bizarro world of deflation fearing bankers and their negative rates crude will eventually go negative.
GVI Forex john 15:28 GMT November 27, 2014
viies- I was not trying to be critical. I thought your observation was very interesting.
When I get a chance I will run some tests on longer time frames and see if I get different results. Any outcome is interesting.
london red 15:24 GMT November 27, 2014
i wonder if they are really willing to chase loonie up here with canadian gdp out tomorrow. reckon time to take early profits here at the 50% fib and buy in on the dip to 11266/43 tomorrow.
Tallinn viies 15:04 GMT November 27, 2014
Both started to fall in the end of june. if no correlation then correlation but just wanted to share the view
GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT November 27, 2014
wti 70.19 -2.50
very volatile and weak
GVI Forex john 14:59 GMT November 27, 2014
Last 76.30 -1.45 (hi 77.06 lo 75.48)
GVI Forex 14:56 GMT November 27, 2014
viies- our correltion table (last for weeks) shows a near zero correlation beteen Crude and EURUSD.
USDJPY to wti is -0.87, which is a very high negative correlation.
all pretty interesting.
GVI Forex john 14:53 GMT November 27, 2014
Report OPEC delegate says production quota unchanged.
Tallinn viies 14:38 GMT November 27, 2014
OPEC soon. yesterday morning 18 out of 30 oil researchers believed OPEC will cut production in a range of 1,5mbd - 0,5mbd.
today news are producing stories that there will be no cut. oil at the lows of the year.
will be interesting to see how they react today....
why it is important? just both oil and eurusd started to fall in the end of june. eurusd down 10% brent down from 115 down to 76.
If no cut today the market could take it as a permission to check new lows. wouldnt be suprised to see brent down another 10% before year-end.
euro down to 1,2000 then.
GVI Forex Blog 14:05 GMT November 27, 2014
November 27, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, November 28. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- CPI, Retail Sales, industrial Output, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- flash HICP, Unemployment, CA- GDP, US- Early Close
GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 28, 2014
GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT November 27, 2014
November 27, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, November 28.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- CPI, Retail Sales, industrial Output, DE- Retail Sales,
EZ- flash HICP, Unemployment, CA- GDP, US- Early Close
- Far East: JP- CPI, Retail Sales, industrial Output
- Europe: DE- Retail Sales, EZ- flash HICP, Unemployment
- North America: US- Early Close, CA- GDP
GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT November 27, 2014
flash November German HICP falls as expected. EZ flash HICP due Friday
nw kw 13:03 GMT November 27, 2014
Global Marklets News
deflation concern for eur is reported from usa stops QE and passes QE piton to JPY, Soft jpy is to compete with German exports.
GVI Forex john 13:00 GMT November 27, 2014
German HICP (CPI) flash November 2014
mm: 0.0% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. -0.30% prev.
yy:0.60% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. 0.80% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Mtl JP 12:38 GMT November 27, 2014
Global Marklets News
"deflation concern" is only a concern to snake-oil peddling bankers
everyone else knows what moves more product off shelves
nw kw 11:50 GMT November 27, 2014
Oil-rich Norway’s krone hit a three-week trough of 8.5693 kroner per euro, Russia’s rouble took another dive and Nigeria’s naira was still licking its wounds after an 8% devaluation on Tuesday.
Mtl JP 11:43 GMT November 27, 2014
concrete ? isn't OPEC about oil instead ?
GVI Forex john 11:28 GMT November 27, 2014
I have not seen much concrete coming from OPEC today, but
I gather most are not expecting much in the way of an output reduction. A major cut would be a major surprise. There are all sorts of crosscurrents at work here.
GVI Forex 10:44 GMT November 27, 2014
However, should it become necessary to further address risks of too prolonged a period of low inflation, the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate. In this context, we have also tasked relevant ECB staff and Eurosystem committees with the timely preparation of further measures to be implemented, if needed.
GVI Forex john 09:58 GMT November 27, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
27 November-- 16:50 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
European markets are trading early in a MIXED RISK posture on
Thursday German November Employment data performed better than
expected, however State CPI reports have been soft. Comments by ECB
President Draghi today have been accommodative, but not surprising. The
U.S. is closed for Thanksgiving into Friday
- In forex, the USD is trading mostly higher. The
EUR is mostly lower on
its major crosses Gold is weaker and oil
prices are steady heading
into the OPEC decisions today.
the Far East, equities ended mixed. In Japan, JGB yields fell.
- European bourses are mixed. 10-yr
bund and UK Gilt
yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are
- The U.S 10-yr note yield is easier.
U.S. equities are closed.
heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.
GVI Forex john 09:11 GMT November 27, 2014
Nothing new from Draghi as far as I can see.
GVI Forex john 09:09 GMT November 27, 2014
Inflation to remain at current levels over coming months
Inflation to increase in 2015 & 2016
Unanimous in commitment to use additional instruments if needed
GVI Forex john 08:58 GMT November 27, 2014
German Employment data better than expected.
gc sf 08:08 GMT November 27, 2014
from what I see Draghi starts speaking in 3 hours 22 minutes
if anyone knows anything different - please post .. tk u.
Mtl JP 04:19 GMT November 27, 2014
something like a shipwreck or two at Hormuz would easily turn "key OPEC meeting" into non-key
Mtl JP 04:01 GMT November 27, 2014
Draghi has blown his windbag already 3x about what he is going to do.
I am with austin mw 02:23
time coming soon for Mario to answer the Q about "where is the beef"
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:00 GMT November 27, 2014
AceTrader Nov 26: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Nov 2014 02:36GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Euro strengthened against the dlr on Wednesday as despite a brief retreat from 1.2495 to 1.2444 in European morning after dovish comments from ECB's Constancio, the single currency rebounded due to dlr's broad-based weakness after release of a slew of weak U.S. economic data and rallied to 1.2532 in NY morning before retreating.
Yesterday's intra-day rally suggests euro would continue to move inside the near '3-week long' broad range of 1.2357-1.2602 and stronger gain toward 1.2565/75 is likely to be seen later today .
Bids are placed at 1.2490-80 and around 1.2470/65 with stops emerging below 1.2450, whilst offers are located at 1.2525/30 and then 1.2545/50 with stops located just above 1.2550.
Investors should pay attention to the release of German unemployment data at 08:55GMT, follow by euro zone economic sentiment reports at 10:00GMT. Street forecast for German unemployment rate to remain the same at 6.7% in November whilst unemployment change this month to be -4K compare to previous reading of -22K.
Last night ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Jazbec said that the European Central Bank's monetary policy alone cannot solved the euro zone's problems on its own and it needed to be complemented by other policies such as investment.
Thursday will see the release of New Zealand's trade balance, Australia's HIA new home sales, Swiss GDP, U.K. Nationwide house prices, German unemployment rate, EU business climate, consumer confidence, economic sentiment, Germn Gfk consumer sentiment, HICP and CPI.
austin mw 02:23 GMT November 27, 2014
I think the market is going to press the ECB going into year end. Either they initiate QE in Q1 of 2015 and if not the EURUSD will trade north of 1.300. Until then the low for the year has been set.
GVI Forex 01:48 GMT November 27, 2014
In what is otherwise expected to be relatively subdued day in the absence of U.S. participants, the market looked to a speech by European Central Bank Mario Draghi later in the session for incentives.
Draghi has recently spoken on the likelihood of more stimulus from the ECB. The focus now will be on whether he reinforces his views on the subject, which market players say could slow the euro's advance....RTRS
Central Kwun 01:01 GMT November 27, 2014
Rigged Metals’ Prices
Entry: Target: Stop:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) were sued in New York over claims they conspired for eight years to manipulate prices for the precious metals platinum and palladium in what plaintiffs’ lawyers say is the first such class-action lawsuit in the U.S.