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Forex Forum Archive for 11/30/2014

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dc CB 23:44 GMT November 30, 2014
audusd

Wednesday thru NOW

visualized

an amazing mass of flaming wreckage

dc CB 23:40 GMT November 30, 2014
audusd

posted a Question Fri: Dec = Crash in Energy/Oil and Service Stocks. Equals how much of the SnP? Resource-Crash-O-Rama(Ramala)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It's not just Shale oil stocks in the US that are hurting. Following the OPEC decision to not cut production and squeeze US producers, Saudi Arabia's major stock market index has tumbled into a bear market, giving up all the year's gains. As one analyst noted, "investors are afraid if oil stays where it is, it will negatively impact the government revenues, thus creating potential headwinds on government spending." Dubai stocks - our long-time favorite bubble index - has also been hammered, down over 7% intraday at its worst...

"Panic Selling" Saudi Stocks Crash Into Bear Market Following OPEC Decision

dc CB 23:21 GMT November 30, 2014
audusd

sell some Oil too

Buy US Teasuries. they burn quite well in your gas tank and in your home furnace...HOT HOT HOT radiators for the Winter Cold.

less than 22 trading days in 2014. Let's Get it ON

dc CB 23:18 GMT November 30, 2014
audusd

selling 10K++ Comex Gold contracts in the first 20 mins

ya this is logical

GVI Forex john 22:08 GMT November 30, 2014
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SF WM 21:59 GMT November 30, 2014
audusd
Reply   
Why is audusd opening so weak?

GVI Forex Blog 21:46 GMT November 30, 2014
Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS: AU, JP, CN- PMIs, EZ, CH, GB- PMIs, US, CA- PMIs, COT

As Expected, the Swiss Gold Referendum Fails by a Wide Margin. Monday Global PMI Day

GVI Forex john 20:07 GMT November 30, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, December 1,2014. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU, JP, CN- PMIs, EZ, CH, GB- PMIs, US, CA- PMIs, COT

  • Far East: AU, JP, CN- PMIs
  • Europe: EZ, CH, GB- PMIs
  • North America: US, CA- PMIs, US- COT


nw kw 18:45 GMT November 30, 2014
FOREX FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING

Forex john your feed back is good and no one tells you this more than they shod be?

GVI Forex john 17:50 GMT November 30, 2014
FOREX FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING
Reply   
Chart Directory

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Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: prior to final PMI data this week. Relative economic strengths are clear. The US is improving and then everyone else is soft. Is Japan improving?

Mtl JP 16:30 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

the "worry about Europe" disease - prospect of a slowdown in inflation according to central bankers - appears to be infectious and spreading
CA BOC Rates Rates seen steady
GB Bank of England Rates Seen Steady
EZ Europe Cntl Bank Rates Seen Steady
srce.: john 20:35 GMT 11/29/2014

Mtl JP 16:15 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

long s&p, for now yes and especially if you are 55+ yrs old
you dont wnat to be cautious, prudent and risk averse in this era of very low interest rates for the next - maybe ? - 30years

nw kw 16:01 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

for usa/cad smart call is at 1.20 the bank of ca will hike interest rate

nw kw 15:52 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

was report usa/jpy up its the speed that's important not the price for market can adjust with it

GVI Forex john 15:47 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

for now yes.

nw kw 15:46 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

so long s&p?

GVI Forex john 15:40 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

It would not surprise me if bonds are illiquid. A lot of money has been lost by the big players in the past two years following conventional wisdom. I'm glad not to be in that game. I watch them closely and mostly follow.

nw kw 15:25 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

commodity index run with eur,jpy ,so on

nw kw 15:17 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

was report bonds are illiquid for now?

GVI Forex john 15:17 GMT November 30, 2014
Global-View Trading Systems
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Bollinger Bands Trading System. USD & EUR POSITION TRADING 20 day time frame (Bollinger Band) Support and Resistance levels are Updated Daily.

WIDER BANDS THAN PIVOTS: ADJUST LEVERAGE ACCORDINGLY

nw kw 15:11 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

commodity index // isint jpy commodity dependent as a importer so jpy can be strong now// did find that commodities are cleared in eurs and its year end for commodities to lock in for new year than soft commodities until may

Mtl JP 15:06 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

the euro thus appears correlated to ..... nuffin'

nw kw 15:00 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

nw kw 14:28 GMT October 29, 2014
USDCAD: Reply
cad and the commodity index are correlated last I heard crb looking for support I haven't checked the cart but it can help bit, if usa gdp was bad cad gdp will be soft

GVI Forex john 14:57 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

One last relationship I should highlight is the strong NEGATIVE correlation between USDCAD and gold.Obviously this translates into a strong POSITIVE relationship between CAD and gold.

GVI Forex john 14:55 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

I should also add that weak U.S. equities should be JPY constructive as yen loans to finance stock purchases are repaid. These relationships are important to forex traders because they can have immediate and profound impacts on the forex rates.

GVI Forex john 14:49 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

More importantly, I want to highlight something sf has been telling me that I had missed.

USDJPY and the Nikkei are POSITIVELY correlated. That means when the JPY weakens the NIKKEI gains. This is very logical because when the JPY weakens, demand for Japanese exports increases.



On the other hand, there is a POSITIVE correlation between the USDJPY and U.S. stock indices. That means when the JPY weakens U.S. indices gain. We hear about this relationship all the time from equity traders. This does does not work with the trade argument. Just the opposite should be true.



So now I am looking for an explanation. and I believe it is financial, not physical trade flows. When U.S. shares rally foreign liquidity is drawn into the States. Also some equity purchases are financed with "cheap" yen (carry trades). I am wondering in this case that the JPY is weakened by rising stock prices rather than the other way around.

With the algos trading off these relationships instantaneously, for traders it almost becomes a chicken and egg question.

Nevertheless, a weak JPY is a clear RISK ON trade, and it should be treated accordingly.

nw kw 14:46 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

commodities have a 6munth lag to filter in to retail

nw kw 14:36 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

It could have to do with technicalities for cheaper commodities / from past September jpy not in xau much so cheaper oil to for jpy,good GDP//but bonds support dividends

GVI Forex john 14:29 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

Note the high POSITIVE correlations between USDJPY and the S&P, DAX, FTSE and NIKKEI.

This simply suggests to me that all the major stock indices are positively correlated. I have been noticing this for decades.

For some reason, in the past four weeks, The USDJPY correlation has weakened. I take this with a grain of salt. It could have to do with technicalities I have to figure out.




nw kw 14:04 GMT November 30, 2014
Swiss Reject SNB Gold Initiative, SRF Projections Show

india- its from cheap oil

nw kw 14:03 GMT November 30, 2014
Swiss Reject SNB Gold Initiative, SRF Projections Show

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/india-eases-gold-import-rule-in-surprise-move-573538.html

GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT November 30, 2014
Swiss Reject SNB Gold Initiative, SRF Projections Show

Projections say the vote was 78% to 22% against...

GVI Forex 13:47 GMT November 30, 2014
Swiss Reject SNB Gold Initiative, SRF Projections Show
Reply   
Swiss voters rejected a referendum requiring their central bank to hold a portion of its assets in gold, a measure its President Thomas Jordan termed an “invitation to speculators” that could have hamstrung the economy....

-- from: Bloomberg.com MORE...

nw kw 12:15 GMT November 30, 2014
Four Week Correlations

State-owned Russian news agency Ria Novosti said crews on the vessels from the Russian navy’s northern fleet were “holding drills” in the strait of Dover on Friday, citing the fleet’s press service. But the Russian defence ministry was quoted by other Russian media as saying its ships entered the Channel to wait out a storm after a week of manoeuvres in the North Sea.

North Sea can give GBP a soft tone but timing of it showing up in ECON. not shore

Melbourne Qindex 08:51 GMT November 30, 2014
Crude Oil : Critical Point 73.44
Reply   
Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:




Crude Oil : The monthly cycle pivot centres are positioning at 52.19 - 58.61 - 67.80. the market is stable when it is able to trade above 67.80. One of the monthly cycle projected series is running from 30.94 - 73.44 (see the monthly projected series in my webpage). The market sentiment would change if the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the resistant barrier of the Critical Point at 73.44. The pattern of the monthly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade within 62.82 - 69.90 (see the graphic presentation in my webpage). In an extreme situation it is possible to see 30.94 in the next several months.


Qindex.com

Crude Oil : Monthly Cycle Charts

 




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