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Forex Forum Archive for 03/02/2014

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dc CB 23:56 GMT March 2, 2014

TLDR Traditionally, the phrase too long; didn't read

the calculated move

So WTF do we care?

Just look at the daily 5 to 15 min the US goes ON-Line
The Biggest most Liquid HedgeFund on the Planet lives and dies in the USA land.

So: whose being put foward as "leaders" ain't Golda Meir

Food from Investment
Posted on: The Mysoginists Cockpit

The Evolution of First Lady Media Strategy

london red 23:53 GMT March 2, 2014

JP, of those you mention, usdjpy interests me, the 200 day ma. we may get there we may not, i dont have a view on that but i will say the neck of the double top has just been broken, so some downside is possible, but only eventually as this ones made of rubber it seems - the further the fall the bigger the following bounce. the 78.6 of 101/103 at 101.20 might be a price to look at. if we do see the 200 day ma i think a long there might be a good play esp if it comes on a minor capitualtion. stop would be under the 50 week ma, something that capped the downside well and was a very good signal as to the change in trend c. 80. as for upside, id target then cleanly broken neck. you cant really plan for higher on the trot until this bout of dollar weakness passes.

Mtl JP 23:47 GMT March 2, 2014
Nothing happened!!!

I see euryen down gap now at some 85-ish pips

Syd sf 23:39 GMT March 2, 2014
Nothing happened!!!

north Korea fired off some more missiles -- they fired off 3 last week .. Japan doesn't like this sort of thing.

HK [email protected] 23:17 GMT March 2, 2014
Nothing happened!!!

CHF gave a mute response to the UKR crisis, but Yen responds to possible Stock markets corrections responding to the UKR crisis.

In short within few hours... all will be back to normal.

dc CB 23:08 GMT March 2, 2014

OY. By the time the Bushes and Clintons are finished, they are going to make the Tudors and the Plantagenets look like pikers.

Before these two families release their death grip on the American electoral system, we’re going to have to watch Chelsea’s granddaughter try to knock off George P.’s grandson, Prescott Walker Bush II. Barack Obama, who once dreamed of being a transformational president, will turn out to be a mere hiccup in history, the interim guy who provided a tepid respite while Hillary and Jeb geared up to go at it.

Brace Yourself for Hillary and Jeb

Syd sf 23:04 GMT March 2, 2014
US Futures
just on a CFD basis the US Stock Futures are showing

16190 -- you can actually deal this now

range : 16179 - 16343

close was like 16345

dc CB 23:02 GMT March 2, 2014
Global Markets News

so Gold is no safer than Bitcoin?

Page C-1348574-b-sub 10324G... in The Central Bank Manual(distributed WorldWide)

Mtl JP 22:48 GMT March 2, 2014
Global Markets News

Call Sherlock Holmes: 500 Tons Of Gold Goes Missing In China
- according to Forbes

Mtl JP 22:32 GMT March 2, 2014

red 21:47 my platty's USDPLN quote is stuck at 3.1525 without any spread so as useless as a titonabull for trading atm

how about usdyen, euryen or usdnok as alternative canaries in the trading goldmine ?

dc CB 22:30 GMT March 2, 2014

Break out the Girls (OOOO so "incorrect"...see Skull and Bones...females? nada)

Nova, with a schmear

Who Else Besides Hillary Clinton in 2016?

GVI Forex Blog 22:18 GMT March 2, 2014
Global Markets News
The month ended on a positive note, albeit tempered by developments in Ukraine. US data was mainly better than expected (Chicago PMI and consumer confidence beat, GDP missed), as was Eurozone CPI. The S&P500 made a fresh record high but wobbled near the close (+0.3%) as news of Russian incursions in Crimea unfolded. China's manufacturing PMI (official version) slightly beat estimates.

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

Mtl JP 22:15 GMT March 2, 2014

50 day 103.27
100 day 101.89
current: 101.53
200 day 100.19
unless nh's 21:20 "Whatever is going to happen probably happens in the next 6 or 7 hours - the cover of darkness and fait accompli" the 200dma should be the preferred direction

dc CB 21:53 GMT March 2, 2014
That Was The Week That Was

BONDS: PIMCO Edition...not so much Tin Hat. El-Erian "moves on"

Gross: "I have a 41-year track record of investing excellence... What do you have?"

El-Erian: "I'm tired of cleaning up your censored."

(to read Full the URL ...After the WSJ_A001....change the 01 to 10)

Tues Front Page WSJ: Inside The Showdown

london red 21:47 GMT March 2, 2014

opening prints showing a bit more localisation rather than scatter gun. pln weaker than both huf and try. although poland in much better shape, (so back the white eagle when it all blows over), but for now, pln has most to lose from trouble in ukraine.

HK [email protected] 21:30 GMT March 2, 2014
Reared by the Ukraine, and defected from the rear window.

Just after one day, hahahaha

Rear Admiral Denys Berezovsky was only made head of the navy on Saturday, as the government in Kiev reacted to the threat of Russian invasion.

dc CB 21:28 GMT March 2, 2014
Yellen Blinks? Trading Themes for Week of March 1, 2014

Tin Hat Edition
Mr. Buffett, in Berkshire’s annual report released on Saturday, highlighted the large deals that his company made last year, including the acquisition of H. J. Heinz — and strongly hinted at how future big purchases might take place.

Teresa Heinz
m 1995
John Kerry

Warren Buffett's Annual Letter

HK [email protected] 21:28 GMT March 2, 2014
Reared by the Ukraine, and defected from the rear window.

Rear Admiral Denys Berezovsky: "I swear allegiance to the residents of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea"

Livingston nh 21:20 GMT March 2, 2014

Whatever is going to happen probably happens in the next 6 or 7 hours - the cover of darkness and fait accompli

dc CB 21:15 GMT March 2, 2014
Yellen Blinks? Trading Themes for Week of March 1, 2014

Secretary of State who claims that "Western powers are prepared “to go to the hilt

the Skull and Bones guy is simply playing the role. When he ran against Bush in 04 and was "SwiftBoated", he took it like a "man" and lo and behold 10 years later he get to play Secy of State.

Have you ever seen W, Oliver Stones version of GWB pledging "Skull and Bones"

W. - 1. "Delta Kapster"

London Misha 20:58 GMT March 2, 2014
Hearing - Polish Defence Minister Tomasz Siemoniak: Troop movements in Poland routine, not related to Russian invasion of Crimea. No more information at this time!

London Misha 20:58 GMT March 2, 2014
Hearing - Polish Defence Minister Tomasz Siemoniak: Troop movements in Poland routine, not related to Russian invasion of Crimea. No more information at this time!

London Misha 20:26 GMT March 2, 2014
Hearing - Russian President Putin has accepted 'group' to begin dialogue on Ukraine. Chancellor Merkel of Germany - no independent confirmation at this time!

tokyo ginko 20:21 GMT March 2, 2014
General Note

Good morning all,

Drill Sergeant: Gump! What's your sole purpose in this army?

Forrest Gump: To do whatever you tell me, drill sergeant!

Drill Sergeant: God damn it, Gump! You're a god damn genius! This is the most outstanding answer I have ever heard. You must have a goddamn I.Q. of 160. You are goddamn gifted, Private Gump. Listen up, people...

Syd sf 20:10 GMT March 2, 2014
General Note
I'd also like to add something as a general comment.

I really hope going forward from this week - that everyone can just stop being negative to other people - and just realize its an internet forum - and not something more important than that.

A trading market is made up of so many different views, objectives and reasons to trade - that no one person can ever be right all the time .. that's just the way it works.

So if you have a view, idea, thought, news story or comment on the markets -- please don't lurk but post ... there is no right or wrong .. but the community as a whole gets stronger by more input than less ... and if you disagree with someone or something related just ignore them and add your own view.

Hope everyone has a profitable week.

London Misha 20:07 GMT March 2, 2014
EURRUB rate indic!

ooopppss.... I see what you mean - apologies!

London Misha 20:06 GMT March 2, 2014
EURRUB rate indic!

I think you can deal on rates at the moment!

Syd sf 20:04 GMT March 2, 2014
EURRUB rate indic!

just opened my FX-M trading screen

they show

eurusd 1.3760
usdyen 101.40
gbpusd 1.6720
audusd 8900

euryen 139.50
gbpyen 169.50

just keep in mind these are rates you can't deal on yet - so they will move around abit when they open for trading.

London Misha 19:28 GMT March 2, 2014
EURRUB rate indic!
Hearing EURRUB talked at 51.50, up about 3.5% from Friday night! No further confirmation!

GVI Forex Blog 18:51 GMT March 2, 2014 Reply   

We are leery of weather as an excuse for the recent weakness in U.S. data over the past several months. The explanation might have made sense for some parts of the country, but the weather excuse has started to ring hollow after we probed a little deeper into the data

Global PMIs, Central Banks and Employment data for Canada and the U.S. due this week

Mtl JP 17:57 GMT March 2, 2014
Yellen Blinks? Trading Themes for Week of March 1, 2014

Yellen (and her bankster buddies) better tighten a muzzle and put a short leash on the infinite geyser and windbag of bluster character that passes for United States Secretary of State who claims that "Western powers are prepared “to go to the hilt” to isolate Russia for its military incursion into Ukraine, “an incredible act of aggression” that may lead to visa bans, asset freezes, trade and investment penalties, and a boycott of a Russian-hosted economic summit of global powers in June, Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday" - in Washington Post
So Mr Kerry who, do you think, has not only more to lose but who can better digest a collapse ?

Could be a good time to re-assess my earlier Qtn about how would Yellen handle a dollar crisis - courtesy Vladimir and Co.

GVI Forex john 16:36 GMT March 2, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

March 2, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 3. Updated: Trading Events Calendar


  • Far East: CN/AU- PMI.
  • Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- PMI,
  • North America: US- PMIs. Personal INcome. Construction Spending.

GVI Forex john 15:05 GMT March 2, 2014
Top Macro Economic Data Releases for Trading: GDP
Like it or not we cannot get away from the fact that the release of news impacts the forex markets. Anyone who tells you that the news is all priced in credits the market with having knowledge it simply cannot have. This is not to say that the reaction of the markets to news is always the same or always predictable. Nevertheless...

Top Macro Economic Data Releases for Trading: GDP

HK [email protected] 14:34 GMT March 2, 2014
As Nap said;An army marches on its stomach.No salary no fighting!!!

The local military have not been paid for many months, the source also told RIA Novosti.

“Today the majority of the Ukrainian armed forces deployed in Crimea passed to the side of the authorities of the Crimean autonomous region. The transition was absolutely peaceful, without a single shot fired either by the military or by the forces of self-defense,” an unnamed source told RIA Novosti news agency


Livingston nh 13:20 GMT March 2, 2014
Tell me who are your friends and I.......

EUR gets affected if the EU banks have exposure thru sovereign and non-sovereign loans in Ukraine - for some of the eastern members of EU outside of the EUR it gets a little trickier (Austria (ECB) w/sizable loans may be in a better place than Poland or Hungary) -when a country gets cut up where does collateral go? New currency? // the good news on the Russian side is -- 1. Russian banks have exposure (28 bio?) and 2. Russia doesn't drag out these partitions/interventions so it should be quick if not painless

The currencies of Eastern members of EU probably take the brunt of this - charts from Aug 2008 may be useful

Of course, the EU or US could do something stupid (sanctions or gunboats) and the equation changes

HK [email protected] 12:56 GMT March 2, 2014
Tightening the grip on Crimea and a Psycho. victory for Russia.

Probably those who were speculating for a WWIII, will have to take the back seats.

No one in the west, much less the Eurozone wants to get involved in the UKR. problem.

If Dmitry Yarosh calls the for the help of Umarov, it is likely that the UKR. army is reluctant to take side against Russia(one frigate has already defected to the Russian side).

Likely they(UKR) will be advised to shutup and swallow the frog they cooked.

So don't be surprised if by Monday Mkt. opening the CHF, will sideway or even drop.

Syd sf 10:21 GMT March 2, 2014
Tightening the grip on Crimea and a Psycho. victory for Russia.

"Russia put pressure on Ukraine from another direction when a spokesman for state gas company Gazprom said that Ukraine owed $1.59 billion in overdue bills for imported gas. Sergei Kuprianov said in a statement carried by Russian news wires that the gas arrears would endanger a recent discount granted by Russia.

The Russian payment demand and loss of the discount would accelerate Ukraine's financial crisis. The country is almost broke and seeking emergency credit from the International Monetary Fund." from fox news

HK [email protected] 06:28 GMT March 2, 2014
Tightening the grip on Crimea and a Psycho. victory for Russia.

Ukrainian Navy flagship takes Russia’s side.


Syd sf 05:47 GMT March 2, 2014
Tell me who are your friends and I.......

you always run the risk of being dead wrong with these things.

but I would guess - we see a risk off mode of trading - Monday/Tuesday ---> recovery wednesday/thursday and then a pretty heavy sell off Friday to a new low once NFP shows people that there is no-where to hide.

the forecasts of global growth are going to get disappointed as the year moves on.

Sydney ACC 03:04 GMT March 2, 2014
Tell me who are your friends and I.......

More relevant questions relate to prime energy sectors. The EU imported 33% of its oil imports and 39% of its gas imports from Russia in 2007. Since then US shale production has significantly affected supply and world prices for natural gas and oil. Nevertheless especially during winter months Europe still relies on Russia for much of its energy requirement. If the EU does implement trade sanctions oil and gas prices are likely to rise, the euro falls and freight costs appreciate.
Is it possible that due to the EU's reliance on Russia any response is likely to be muted.

HK [email protected] 01:15 GMT March 2, 2014
Tell me who are your friends and I.......

Probably it will not affect the Euro immediately, as the Euro zone will be reluctant to oppose Russia on behalf of such fascists supported revolution, much less a good opportunity to get rid of their will to join the euro.
Europe had enough of it.

Things may deteriorate into terror attacks on Russian interests, but all time the eurozone will keep out, it will be considered a safe haven.

One may assume that because the Eurozone has enough problems of it's own, and their Ukrainian interests may matter less, probably they will limit themselves to verbal comments.

Probably all including the US will keep out.

dc CB 00:46 GMT March 2, 2014
The Feds 2008 transcripts
“Fed Misread Crisis in 2008, Records Show”, New York Times

the Times wants its readers to believe that the Fed members “misread the crisis”; that they were ‘behind the curve’ and stressed-out, but–dad-gum-it–they were trying their level-best to make things work out for everybody.

How believable is that? Not very believable at all.

Keep in mind, the crisis had been going on for a full year before the discussions in these transcripts took place, so it’s not like the members were plopped in a room the day before Lehman blew up and had to decide what to do

The Greatest Propaganda Coup Of Our Time?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:12 GMT March 2, 2014
Tell me who are your friends and I.......

The question you should be asking is whether the Ukraine will affect the EUR. So far it has been ignored.


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