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Forex Forum Archive for 03/07/2014

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dc CB 22:18 GMT March 7, 2014
Worth reading

the guy is a war criminal from Way Back...VietNam.

yeh pay attention to what he has to say...his "ideas" and "readin" of foreign policy sent almost 60K teenage draftees into the meatgrinder.

HK [email protected] 22:03 GMT March 7, 2014
Worth reading
Reply   


How the Ukraine crisis ends

By Henry A. Kissinger, Published: March 6

How the Ukraine crisis ends

Livingston nh 21:27 GMT March 7, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

US 10 yr tried to hold above 2.80 but failed - 2 yr got a bounce (15 bps from last summer high) -- now we see if flight to quality can be avoided for next week // Plug factor was 124 k

london red 21:10 GMT March 7, 2014
end of week

Syd you read my mind. a few past daily highs there, think 93/93.10 good spot to long with stops below your level (noting 100 day ma) which itself (your 92.70) is a whisker below the 38.2 of 94/90 run.

Mtl JP 21:03 GMT March 7, 2014
end of week

sf yen players are notoriously skittish about risk - would not take much of a growl from the Russian Bear to see them pull back their yen deployment and bring it back home in a hurry
-
S&P closes practically flat

GVI Forex john 20:56 GMT March 7, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Syd sf 20:49 GMT March 7, 2014
end of week

JP .. I think AudYen will drop back to 92.70 the breakout point for this upmove.

$yen can drop back to 102.65/70 with 103.50 heavy now

dc CB 20:41 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine

it ain't about bonds or currencies or other "paper" assests. It's about energy. Oil and NG.

This is the perfect cover for a repeal of the ban on US crude Exports, and for a paving the way for more licenses and gob'amint subsidies for the vely vely expensive to start up Exporting of Liquid Nat Gas.

Amerca's Energy Independence meme, transformed by "get those dam Ruskies, squeeze 'em where it hurts"

for background short read

LNG facilites and terminal permitting are being "held up" by concerns that "terrorists" could light one up, or light up a LNG ship at the dock.

Terrorism Fears cuts both ways.

Can The United States Rule The (Energy) World?

Mtl JP 20:39 GMT March 7, 2014
end of week

usdyen 50dma at 103.08, i.e still support

Syd sf 20:33 GMT March 7, 2014
end of week
Reply   
Friday's trading basically squeezed out the cross yen short positions and the number came out high enough to stop a complete rout in the USD

now it basically stopped because really who wants a position over the weekend after last week.

the picture hasn't changed too much

they say russian troops seized a base in Sevastapol -- I just imagine Gold rallies a bit into the close.

nice weekend all.

london red 20:24 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine

Putin can threaten to sell US bonds/assets and even try to carry this threat out, but we are talking about the worlds number one reserve currency which has not been able to depreciate much even in the face of 80bn a month printing. It may mean a bumpy month or two but he will soon quickly turn his attention to the riots of his own people at his front door after foreign money pulls out and the tail spinning rouble creates hyper inflation in his backyard. Russia is bankcrupt and will stay that way with no hope until there is real democracy, that the bottom line. Since he's a young guy relatively speaking, that wont happen for a very long time unless he creates his own downfall.

Mtl JP 20:01 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine

red as long as the catfight remains amongst the world's "elites" it would be highly interesting if Vlad started to screw around with the dlr or, even more interestingly, western banking system

Cambridge Joe 19:50 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine

red
'dont think west has stomach for it (war),'

I have no doubt that you are right, however, over the last few weeks, the build up and the readiness which has been evident should persuade the Russkies that the West has a great deal of kit which is fast approaching it's sell-by-date.

On top of that all the NATO people have been rotated thru Afghan at least. Therefore, their equipment, systems and readiness is pretty operationally sharp.

Let us hope that reason prevails.

london red 19:38 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine

dont think a small skirmish is anything significant. the decision process could be down to troops there trying to make a name for themselves. putin is probably crazy enough for war if it comes down to it since financial threats by him will hurt russia more than the US. dont think west has stomach for it (war), so he is going to be able to push the boundaries (no pun intended) for quite some time.

Mtl JP 19:36 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine

sounds like a small skirmish. Gold remains relatively unfazed.
After NFP that was billed as the main event , market probably relatively thin with little follow-thru
--
"Negotiating with Obama is like playing chess with a pigeon. The pigeon knocks over all the pieces, shits on the board and then struts around like it won the game." - Vladimir Putin -- Accurately descriptive, but cannot be attributed to Putin. (author unknown)

GVI Forex john 19:26 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine

JP- I believe you read Russian??

story

GVI Forex john 19:22 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine

i believe it is from interfax

Mtl JP 19:18 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine

maybe shmaybe .. what kind of report is that ?

GVI Forex john 19:15 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine
Reply   
Report Russian forces may be storming a Ukraine Base near Savastopol --TNN

nw kw 18:34 GMT March 7, 2014
GBPJPY 17300

monthly charts same as last year that this run up has this month for new high than chop, e/y to

GVI Forex Blog 17:22 GMT March 7, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
• Markets take Ukraine crisis in their stride, but tensions still pose key risk

• Chinese data to provide first clear steer on how the economy is performing this year

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - MARKETS TAKE UKRAINE CRISIS IN THEIR STRIDE - FOR NOW

GVI Forex john 17:15 GMT March 7, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income remain offered on a return to "risk-on" trading following a better than expected February non-farm payroll report and the less accomodative than expected ECB yesterday.

Political tensions in Ukraine are back simmering. European equity prices are closing weaker. U.S. shares are mixed,. Peripheral European bond prices are mostly better.

GVI Forex Blog 17:02 GMT March 7, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The February jobs report took markets by surprise this morning after a week of jitters that the report would be terrible. Interestingly, the employment report showed clear signs of weather disruptions

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: NFPs Surprise to the Upside, Markets Remain Jittery

GVI Forex Blog 16:55 GMT March 7, 2014 Reply   
March 7, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 10. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP-GDP

GVI Forex Data Outlook for March 10, 2014

GVI Forex john 16:53 GMT March 7, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


March 7, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 10. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP-GDP

    U.S. and Canadian Clocks "Spring Forward early on Sunday. Time difference beteen the U.S. and London shrinks to 4 hours (vs. 5hrs) until UK and Europe adjust on March 30.
  • Far East: JP- GDP, Tertiary Activity Index.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: No Major Data.


Cambridge Joe 16:22 GMT March 7, 2014
-

A fair point well made JP.

Oil has been a lot kinder to me than the SnP.

But you are right !

london red 16:13 GMT March 7, 2014
-

yen support at 103.10, imp for bulls to close above. below think 70 poss, maybe only down to 85 if no bounce at 103.10

Mtl JP 16:08 GMT March 7, 2014
-

Joe 14:42 - the day u let past burns affect your next decision is when you leave posi-pips on the table

Amman wfakhoury 16:05 GMT March 7, 2014
GBPJPY 17300
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 12:59 GMT 03/06/2014
ohannesburg HvW 11:47 GMT 03/06/2014 - My Profile
Do you by any chance have a forecast on GBP/JPY, Mr.Wfakhoury?
--------------------
Short term signal shows it is heading twd 17300 unless it breaks down 171.35
----------------
17300 reached today

london red 15:57 GMT March 7, 2014
eurgbp
Reply   
this one poking its ahead thru the 100 day, could translate to further cable weakness if follow thru see. this apir not immune to retracement theory (could see mid 82's first next week even if 8330 gets taken out) but currently looking to close the week on a high.

Amman wfakhoury 15:47 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

Amman wfakhoury 11:49 GMT 03/07/2014
13924 confirmed and will be reached....any decline below 13883 will return to it.
___________________________
awaiting the return to 13883.

Amman wfakhoury 15:45 GMT March 7, 2014
EURJPY 160-200 pips move

Amman wfakhoury 11:51 GMT 03/07/2014
143.50 confirmed and will be reached ..anydecline below 143,02 will return to it.
_____________________________
143.50 reached..and now any decline below it will return to it.
if 1 hr bar closed above 143.52 then will continue up.

Cambridge Joe 15:05 GMT March 7, 2014
-

thks red.

Also your posts are always very insightful, thanks.

HK [email protected] 15:03 GMT March 7, 2014
gold and with relations to euro too.
Reply   


If gold holds above 1328, you may go to sleep with it for weekend, to get a bounce the most at next week start.

nw kw 15:02 GMT March 7, 2014
-

s&p- oil up on gbp military stress Putin out/ poss faster us qe drop /commodity play

london red 14:59 GMT March 7, 2014
-

Joe, bar so low for usd even a horse with a broken leg could jump it. was short cable ahead but now out and awaiting a dip to buy in high 1.66, possible euro 138025/35

london red 14:57 GMT March 7, 2014
-

edit 100 hour

london red 14:55 GMT March 7, 2014
-

s&p now at 23.6 of move from march 03 low to recent high. 200 hour comes in roughly around the 38.2. higher yield/dollar can only mean lower stocks at these lofty levels.

Caribbean! Rafe... 14:54 GMT March 7, 2014
EUR/USD
Reply   
The trend on EUR/USD is UP for the position trade.

I am working off position trade time frames now... hope this does offend those that day-trade.

I will also say this with the hope that some may convert, trade higher time frames and make tons of cash because what you may miss in day trading can be made up for by size in position trading and trading multiple instruments.

You can NEVER lose with this technique.

gl gt

Cambridge Joe 14:42 GMT March 7, 2014
-

To me looks as Sn{P has much more travel south indicated.... I won't be playing it as burnt fingers too often trying to short it tho.

USDX looks like a sea change, which I think will carry over well into the new week.

Lucky to catch a nice short with Cable..... ! :-)

IMO.

HK [email protected] 14:27 GMT March 7, 2014
One nice number will not be remembered.



And the unemployment zzzzip a bit up.

It's a miracle; Creating jobs while unemplo. increases.

london red 14:25 GMT March 7, 2014
-
Reply   
eurgbp good resistance at 8308,20 and 30/40 but another weekly close above last high will do for bulls (10 week at 8256 is downside pivot)

nw kw 14:24 GMT March 7, 2014
One nice number will not be remembered.

inflation monitoring this year eur,gbp,usa,nzd

nw kw 14:17 GMT March 7, 2014
One nice number will not be remembered.

march is now bigger bet?== inflation monitoring

HK [email protected] 14:15 GMT March 7, 2014
One nice number will not be remembered.
Reply   


Euro will move to 1.3970, even on fundamental basis, as the NFP is not that exciting.

Euro numbers are not bad at all, where some of the prev. US number were not that good. Follow the TECH.

london john 14:12 GMT March 7, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

havent looked at estimates yet john but if they are going to be that high consensus, its going to get priced in in the week or two ahead of the number anyway, so it just means buying euro or cable much lower than current levels if you intend to punt on a weaker than consensus figure. not sure those data come into play today though, bit early to start the second guessing.

london red 14:09 GMT March 7, 2014
-

yen at 103.65 is 61.8 of 105/101 fib, marginally breached. a close above here target 104.50/105 next week, while a close above 103.10 required to keep momentum

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT March 7, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Not a bad employment report. Hopefully the very bad weather is now behind us.

Before the data we heard "A major U.S. bank is saying 300k numbers are very possible in Mar and Apr on a weather payback." Thus this is the scenario for the next few months. Not to get too far ahead of events, but now there is a risk that expectations for the next few months might be too high?

S&P futures are now +8pts and the DJ is +80 pts as well.

fwiw USDJPY and S&P futures are trading exactly in tandem. Keep an eye on stox today.

london red 14:04 GMT March 7, 2014
-
Reply   
cable pauses ahead of london am low, if no bounce then 16688 on the cards, where it should see support initially at the very least

tokyo ginko 14:00 GMT March 7, 2014
good morning from tokyo

orders in...GT all!

nw kw 13:55 GMT March 7, 2014
February 2014 Canada Employment

gov. puled out health care,s s ,its not bad

GVI Forex john 13:53 GMT March 7, 2014
January 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade



U.S. Trade. Deficit as forecast.

GVI Forex john 13:50 GMT March 7, 2014
February 2014 Canada Employment



Canada jobs weaker than expected.

GVI Forex john 13:48 GMT March 7, 2014
February 2014 U.S. Employment Situation

Monthly jobs U.S.


Employment data stronger than forecast.






Click on chart for more than 10-yr history




Direct links to primary data sources

london red 13:45 GMT March 7, 2014
February 2014 U.S. Employment Situation

not sure us stocks can hold gains on usd strength.

dc CB 13:41 GMT March 7, 2014
February 2014 U.S. Employment Situation

should be good enough to push SnP futures to try to tag 1900

tokyo ginko 13:40 GMT March 7, 2014
USD: Dow -1000 points coming, and USD likely declining disorderly.

close out NK 40% position @ 15390..

london red 13:40 GMT March 7, 2014
-
Reply   
euro bounced at 23.6 fibo of yesterdays low to todays high. if we get back down again, then 38.2 at 13836 next. that should bounce, if not then we have seen the high of this move up.
aussie 9080/90 pretty important support, below should see capitulation. topside 200 da governs still some way above todays high

Amman wfakhoury 13:39 GMT March 7, 2014
Gold
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 12:15 GMT 03/07/2014
Gold ready to move 15$
up if breaks 1350.60
down if breaks 1346.44
mostly we are going down as 1335 should be reached again.
----------------------------
same as I said

GVI Forex john 13:37 GMT March 7, 2014
February 2014 U.S. Employment Situation

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2014

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services and in wholesale trade but declined in information.

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2014

GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT March 7, 2014
February 2014 Canada Employment

Employment was little changed in February, and the unemployment rate remained at 7.0%. There has been little overall employment growth in Canada since August 2013.

Compared with 12 months earlier, employment increased by 95,000 (+0.5%) and the unemployment rate was unchanged. Over the same period, the number of hours worked rose 0.7%.

GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT March 7, 2014
January 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade
Reply   



ALERT
USD -39.1 vs. -39.0 exp. vs. -38.7 (r -39.0) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
CAD -0.180 vs. -1.500 exp. vs. -1.700 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:31 GMT March 7, 2014
February 2014 Canada Employment
Reply   




ALERT

Jobs: -7.00K vs. +16.8K exp. vs. +29.4K prev.
Rate: 7.00% vs. 7.00% exp. vs. 7.00% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

StatCan Monthy Employment Report

GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT March 7, 2014
February 2014 U.S. Employment Situation




ALERT
NFP Jobs: +175 vs. +150K exp. vs. +113K (r 129K) prev.
Rate: 6.70% vs. 6.60% exp. vs. 6.60% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

BLS: Employment Situation Summary

NY Bob 13:24 GMT March 7, 2014
EURJPY 160-200 pips move

Thank u, waiting for it.

Mtl JP 13:17 GMT March 7, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

red - THNX !

london red 13:14 GMT March 7, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

most scattered between 120 and 170k. only a handful outside.
on a beat think best seen cable weakness. on a miss then 16820 doable but upper bolli should be safe. on a miss think usdjpy dips initially but bounces at 102,70 or 102.45. this one needs to move above 103.10 and we probably get a crack at 103.50/65 today. on a miss audusd touches 200 day ma, but dips back down. the 200 day is a big deal, a close above it is likely to see (almost a must really given how breaks and first close play out historically) 9200 same day, not sure market has the legs after this weeks sprint.
the above assumes we get between 100 and 200, either side of that and there will be some scrambling.

Caribbean! Rafe... 13:04 GMT March 7, 2014
True Experience.
Reply   
Unbelievable! A few years back, I went to sleep at night howling with uncontrollable laughter.

Some of my trading quips and statements got around in India and I got them back as advice in a casual local market chat.

Good thing the person(s) did not know that I am standing right there in front of them paying attention to their copied wisdom... LOL!

GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT March 7, 2014
February 2014 U.S. Employment Situation
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (forum top)
EURUSD= 1.3905
GBPUSD= 1.6780
USDJPY= 102.95
USDCAD= 1.0980

US 10-yr= 2.73%
DE 10-yr= 1.64%
UK 10-yr= 2.73%
CA 10-yr= 2.52%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:50 GMT March 7, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

john 12:06 - what is the range of estimates around the "center around reading at or just below 150K" ?

any sub 100k or even negative estimate ?

nw kw 12:46 GMT March 7, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

caution than usual on this report but 1.47 he nuked it down so 1.47 cap 2014/04/07

Livingston nh 12:29 GMT March 7, 2014
NFP
Reply   
Plug factor last mth was -307k // rule of thumb is this negative fig is washed out over next 3 mos so today should be positive ~100k // Fed's target/benchmark 6.5% unemployment rate likely to be broken (unseasoned figs were worse than the adjusted figs last month) // NFP +210k (ADP w/ a lag)

10 yr back to 2.80% ??

Amman wfakhoury 12:19 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

100 pips from 13860.

HK [email protected] 12:18 GMT March 7, 2014
Will this money draining continue to affect the Euro price? HEEELP!!!!!!!!!!!
Reply   


Banks to return 11.4 billion euro of crisis loans to ECB next week


Reuters) - Banks will return 11.401 billion euros ($15.78 billion) in crisis loans to the European Central Bank next week, more than six times than the amount that was expected, accelerating the drain of extra cash out of the euro zone financial system.

The amount banks will repay on March 12 beat this week's repayments of 3.012 billion euros and is more than the 2.1 billion forecast in a Reuters poll.

It is the largest repayment since the end of last year, when banks returned large chunks of the long-term loans they took from the ECB in late 2011 and early 2012 to ride out a credit crunch.

Many banks used the cheap funds to buy higher-yielding government debt and next week's hefty repayment could be "mainly related to the expiring of some short-dated Italian bonds in early March", Annalisa Piazza, analyst at Newedge Strategy, said.

The euro hit a 2014 high of 1.3892 after the release of the repayment figures.

Amman wfakhoury 12:17 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

HK [email protected] 11:58 GMT 03/07/2014


I only confirmed 13924 .

Amman wfakhoury 12:15 GMT March 7, 2014
EURJPY 160-200 pips move

Gold ready to move 15$
up if breaks 1350.60
down if breaks 1346.44
mostly we are going down as 1335 should be reached again.

NY Bob 12:08 GMT March 7, 2014
EURJPY 160-200 pips move

wfakhoury : Sir your view on gold please.

GVI Forex john 12:06 GMT March 7, 2014
Your Best Trade Today
Reply   
EURUSD is a major focus today following the ECB decision yesterday, which was for no policy ease for the immediate future and ahead of U.S. Non-Farm payrolls (NFP) today. As for NFP, street estimate center around reading at or just below 150K for February. The unusually severe winter weather in February is expected to have been a depressant on the data, but its anybody's guess by how much.

The problem for trading is that a weak number is already priced in, so anyone who plans to buy EUR on a weak report will be buying from those already positioned long int the data. Keep in mind also that data clearly has been leaking out ahead of time these days, so there is that to contend with as well.

On top of all this, a weather-distorted report will be seen as temporary by the markets. So the USD should get a "pass" on poor data.

Beware of the unemployment rate. Changes in Federal unemployment benefits could see an artificial fall in the unemployment rate, not to mention a declining labor participation rate. In short, the unemployment rate could fall but that statistic has increasingly become meaningless.

Bottom-line we advise more caution than usual on this report.

HK [email protected] 11:58 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move



Mr. Prophet...you are a bit late.

HK [email protected] 12:56 GMT March 5, 2014
EURO 1.3970 on the Menu in few days.: Reply
/

Amman wfakhoury 11:51 GMT March 7, 2014
EURJPY 160-200 pips move

143.50 confirmed and will be reached ..anydecline below 143,02 will return to it.

Amman wfakhoury 11:49 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

13924 confirmed and will be reached....any decline below 13883 will return to it.

jkt abel 11:44 GMT March 7, 2014
byebye usd
Reply   
who cares about NFP now, 2013 high was broken easily, what very strong resistance? smooth as hot butter...
1.42 next thank you, good call bali sja

HK [email protected] 11:38 GMT March 7, 2014
THE NERD
Reply   




Don't be surprised if one day you will hear, that the NERD in the attached picture, has disclosed the secret codes of the bitcoin to the CIA, whether under pressure, or as a pre-planted CIA agent, thus bringing to the present problems.

I smeeel it:)

GVI Forex john 11:28 GMT March 7, 2014
January 2014 German Industrial Output

Note: another positive reading from Germany. This is why the ECB was not going to ease yesterday.

GVI Forex john 11:21 GMT March 7, 2014
January 2014 German Industrial Output
Reply   




ALERT
YY: +5.0% vs. +3.90% exp. vs. +2.60% (r +3.40%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Blog 11:01 GMT March 7, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The EUR/USD continued to seek out fresh 3-month highs with key resistance remaining at the six-year downtrend line of 1.3890 (data points also corresponds to 2013 high at 1.3893). Various analysts push back their views on any potential ECB action following the disappointment from Thursday's Draghi press conference.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets await US payrolls; Russia admits different view on Ukraine situation

Amman wfakhoury 10:46 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

If it is surely up..why market awaiting NFP data ?

Amman wfakhoury 10:41 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

manila tom 10:36 GMT 03/07/2014


, surely today's move is up, no need to ask for direction bali,sja
-------------
How did you know it is surely up ?

Amman wfakhoury 10:38 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

bali sja 10:12 GMT 03/07/2014
------------------
If you trust ashraf laidi then follow him..dont follow another one..this may confuse you .

manila tom 10:36 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

this is already prepared and premeditated move, the whole week euro has stayed comfortably above 1.37, surely today's move is up, no need to ask for direction bali,sja
you know the answer already just by looking at charts, NFP won't be needed, it is just a formal excuse later to trigger the move, euro bears just go somewhere else today and comeback next week from higher levels

Amman wfakhoury 10:31 GMT March 7, 2014
EURJPY 160-200 pips move

143.05 is wfakhoury directional level ..if 1 hr bar closed above it then we are going up.
if 1 hr bar breaks 143.05 but closed below it then we are going down

Amman wfakhoury 10:29 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

13890 is wfakhoury directional level....If 1 hr bar closed above 13890 then we are going up.

Amman wfakhoury 10:22 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

bali sja 10:12 GMT 03/07/2014
----------------
Check what ashraf laidi said

Hong Kong Ahe 10:21 GMT March 7, 2014
audusd

manipulation

GVI Forex Blog 10:20 GMT March 7, 2014
U.S. and Canadian Jobs Data the Focus today
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA/US- Trade, Employment

Markets are in a defensive posture waiting for the key February U.S. employment data on the N.Y. open today.. Jobs growth is expected to have been restrained by severe winter weather in the month. So in a sense the USD could be getting a pass on these data. Betterthan expected jobs growth would be the major surprise.

U.S. and Canadian Jobs Data the Focus today

bali sja 10:16 GMT March 7, 2014
buy euro

jkt abel, i think from technical point of view too it is just unlikely for usd to make significant positive move after NFP after new low on fxcm usd index, even a dead cat bounce will surely need a few more bars, not today...

bali sja 10:12 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

wfakhoury, need to provide direction up or down

Amman wfakhoury 10:11 GMT March 7, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move
Reply   
EURUSD is ready to move 100 pips.

Amman wfakhoury 10:11 GMT March 7, 2014
EURJPY 160-200 pips move
Reply   
EURJPY is ready to move 160-200 pips.

GVI Forex john 10:09 GMT March 7, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, financial markets are generally steady heading into the monthly U.S. payroll data on the N.Y. open. Ukraine worries have pretty much faded. continues to ease. Prices in prime fixed income markets are narrowly mixed.

European equities are weaker. Far East equities ended mixed. U.s. S&P futures are steady at this hour. The peripheral European bond prices are mixed.



bali sja 10:08 GMT March 7, 2014
buy euro

what's the proposed stop loss for those possies? 1.3650?

jkt abel 10:06 GMT March 7, 2014
buy euro

yes sja, he went on adding: After Draghi's performance yesterday, it's unlikely that an overshoot in US manufacturing or services hiring will disrupt €

we'll see if he maintains 100% record later, i think he will

bali sja 10:03 GMT March 7, 2014
buy euro

he seems to be pretty bullish on euro and cousins, even the kiwi
he's been on fire lately

jkt abel 10:01 GMT March 7, 2014
buy euro
Reply   
Ashraf Laidi ‏just tweeted:

Sticking w/ both our Premium longs in $EURUSD (entry at 1.3750 & 1.38). Those who want to exit @ 13880 that's OK but we aren't yet

kl shawn 09:59 GMT March 7, 2014
audusd
Reply   
oz puppy is heading to parity now instead of 0.85? ;)
always suspicious isn't it when central bankers go so openly in the media and actually give out the levels like RBA Stevens did, we know what happened afterwards....

Cambridge Joe 09:47 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

yes sja, but IMO there is about to be at least some retrace.

At least a sell on blip opp for the believers ! :-))

bali sja 09:07 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

meanwhile as you guys speak, fxcm usd index just made a new daily low and still dropping, hopeless

jkt abel 09:00 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

kl fs, there is got to be a real giant swoop 400-500 pips in a day to take out 1.3470 in one go (if using euro as an example) for us to consider changing of game plan IMHO
if only couple pips usd bounce here and there, forget it, it is exactly the boiling frog analogy

kl fs 08:52 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

Syd sf, i just feel that this slaughtering will not stop until we have real capitulation, so far it has been pretty orderly like boiling a frog analogy, even if today we do have usd bounce then it will just provide breeding ground for more dramatic losses in weeks ahead IMO

kl fs 08:43 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

Syd sf, make it three in a row then ;) i mean why not...

Syd Sf 08:37 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

Joe .. It's a fair point .. As it's been rare too see 2 days in a row

Where the mkt moved strongly in one direction.

But here we go into a NFP which more than likely would be weak .. And we seem to be at the last resistance level at 1.3895

So it's kind of like what I mentioned about the saxo guy ... You can sell eur with a stop above 1.3895 or you can buy the dip and wait for capitulation to come in.

It's just that everyday we have heard the bullish usd case and well it's day of judgement really .. As a few other people mentioned.

kl fs 08:35 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

thanks Joe, just for fun i will add intraday size around 1.3820-1.3850 if seen, honestly my system still says bearish usd from all fronts so I just have to trade from that side accordingly

Cambridge Joe 08:31 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

Sorry 3838

Cambridge Joe 08:30 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

fs thanks. Depth upon depth of market layers and positions.

As a minnow, most of these long term considerations are simply way above my head !

ATM short term (hours) I have e/$ softer. Maybe 38.

kl fs 08:27 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

sorry..need to continue...

..sitting ducks waiting for NFP release to bail them out, which we know this sort of thing rarely happen, market will inflict the most pain

kl fs 08:26 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

Joe, agree with locking in profits on fridays, but i dont think market is leaning towards selling usd, i think more are actually sitting on their underwater long usd judging from archive history of the forum, in fact they have been adding to losses since euro was 1.3550ish.

At that time the loudest propaganda was year or decade of the dollar, imminent crash of the euro, aud demise to 0.66, etc but as price moves proving them wrong

that's what i think anyway, could be wrong but i share what Syd sf said this morning about usd bulls sitting duck

Cambridge Joe 08:17 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays

All usd related comments seem to be biased to the down side and same with the radio business news here as well..... time to follow the herd ?

Here it looks to be a well supported theory, ( I agree)
.... however,....
the hourly indicates that those with profit from shorting usd might like to lock it in from around 17:00 GMT.

IMO. GL

Melbourne Qindex 08:15 GMT March 7, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3866

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:





The following is still valid :


Hong Kong Qindex 02:55 GMT January 31, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3866 : Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:


EUR/USD : Trading Reference


... 1.3417* - 1.3477 - [1.3537] - 1.3596 - 1.3656* - 1.3715 - 1.3775 - 1.3834 - 1.3894* // 1.3953 - 1.4013 ...

Quantum Index Analysis

kl fs 08:07 GMT March 7, 2014
Friday - Asia/NYC

JP, that kind of stupidity is what always costing US
overreacting really, trying to win hearts and sympathy but nobody cares
fine rich Russians are banned from Vegas and Vegas is out of business, what gives?

kl fs 08:05 GMT March 7, 2014
sell usd fridays
Reply   
abel and sja, this is friday, so like usual sell usd! coming Germany data should continue the positive trend and i remember never go against positive EU data on any fridays because US data have been not so good

Mtl JP 07:57 GMT March 7, 2014
Friday - Asia/NYC

Syd sf 23:35 0 was passing along John McCain's demand that rich Russians be barred from Las Vegas...

jkt abel 07:42 GMT March 7, 2014
euro/yen

agree, i think you would be lucky to see a quick dip to 142-142.30 before resuming further north

bali sja 06:38 GMT March 7, 2014
euro/yen

singapore skr, unfortunately i think it will go further up, a lot of trapped positions down there bleeding
waiting for NFP to bail you out? forget it, better take your loss and move on

singapore skr 06:31 GMT March 7, 2014
euro/yen
Reply   
Sell EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Will Euro/yen drop to 140? Any comments/views on Selling..

bali sja 06:15 GMT March 7, 2014
Mkt.

[email protected], US policymakers never give a censored about their national symbol, their currency; all they care is their stock markets which is also destined to collapse later, meanwhile that is the only thing left they can talk about

GVI Forex Blog 05:55 GMT March 7, 2014 Reply   
(AU) AUSTRALIA FEB AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 44.2 V 48.2 PRIOR (2nd month of contraction; 6-month low) - (JP) JAPAN FEB OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS: $1.29T V $1.28T - (MY) MALAYSIA JAN TRADE

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: RBA Gov Stevens sees the $0.90 line as "too high" for AUD; Investors weather-weary ahead of Feb jobs report - Source TradeTheNews.com

HK [email protected] 05:42 GMT March 7, 2014
Mkt.
Reply   


I really don't know how much the US policy makers do care about their US$.

But what happens now in the market is a combination of bad US econonumbers, + a bigger mistake in handling the UKR. issue.

On this background O. is completely isolated, which only deepening the FX crisis of the USD.

The climax will be a stock market collapse and a deep recession.

Europe is not supporting the US policy in UKR. and also a close ally like Israel do not give a shoulder to O.(one million Russian are living in Israel, and no one will risk losing their votes).
I begin to suspect other shady interests are behind this irrational behavior of this admin.(bet one day Obama scandals will become daily issues).

Probably for this weekend people will arm themselves with gold silver and other instruments against possible breakout of violence.

bali sja 05:12 GMT March 7, 2014
CHF

abel, maybe you are right, charts indicate so, fundamentals and news may catch up soon

jkt abel 04:49 GMT March 7, 2014
CHF

with expected mishandling of usd crisis by Yellen, dont be surprised to see usdchf at 2011 low

bali sja 04:16 GMT March 7, 2014
CHF

[email protected], maybe 1 way traffic to 0.85-0.86 is more likely after NFP's capitulation action

HK [email protected] 04:01 GMT March 7, 2014
CHF
Reply   


Better than Euro: Two ways guarantee.

GVI Forex Blog 03:41 GMT March 7, 2014 Reply   
The Nifty is rallying hard on electoral expectations and improving domestic fundamentals

Morning Briefing : 07-Mar-2014 -0340 GMT

kl fs 03:33 GMT March 7, 2014
buy euro

while Obama is in the office plus Yellen(=Bernanke's gang) forget about seeing strong usd, occasionally you may see a bounce but that's about it always remember to sell those bounces no matter what the euphoria is then you will make a lot of money

kl fs 03:24 GMT March 7, 2014
buy euro

closing 1/4 more here 1.3857 for +184 pips, final portion left for fireworks later, cheers!! trend is your friend, dont listen to so-called gurus

kl fs 04:06 GMT March 3, 2014
buy euro: Reply
closed half here 1.3775 for +102pips, rest run with stop at entry

kl fs 08:14 GMT February 27, 2014
buy euro: Reply
bought 1.3653, some daily support around this level, stop 1.3566, target open

kl fs 03:22 GMT March 7, 2014
buy eurjpy

first immediate target 143.30, then all the way up to recent high and beyond

kl fs 03:22 GMT March 7, 2014
buy eurjpy
Reply   
limit buy 142.10-40, stop under 141.70, target open

bali sja 03:15 GMT March 7, 2014
usd crisis
Reply   


thinking about buying usd? think again! worth visiting this chart again...

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:28 GMT March 7, 2014
AceTrader Mar 7: Euro rallies to a fresh two-month peak after ECB raises inflation expectation
Reply   
[B]Market Review[/B] - 06/03/2014 [I]20:39GMT[/I]

[B]Euro rallies to a fresh two-month peak after ECB raises inflation expectation[/B]

The single currency rallied to a fresh two-month peak at 1.3873 versus U.S. dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank refrained from tightening monetary policy, and slightly upgraded its forecast for growth this year.

During the day, although euro traded sideways below Wednesday's high of 1.3749 in Asia and briefly dropped to 1.3722 in European morning, price rebounded after data showed German factory orders came in better-than-expected in January. Later, euro moved in a volatile manner shortly after the release of ECB's rate decision but eventually rallied to a fresh two-month peak at 1.3873 in New York as ECB President Mario Draghi confirmed the latest economic data indicating that 'the moderate economic recovery in the euro zone is proceeding.'

ECB President Mario Draghi confirmed that the bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the latest economic data indicating that 'the moderate economic recovery in the euro zone is proceeding.' The central bank revised its forecast for economic growth in 2014 to 1.2% from 1.1% in December. The bank revised down its inflation forecast for this year to 1.0% from 1.1% in December. The bank expects inflation to pick up to 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, remaining below the bank's target of just under 2%. Draghi reiterated the ECB's forward guidance on rates and said that interest rates will remain at their present levels, or lower for an extended period. The ECB remains determined to maintain the high degree on accommodating monetary policy for as long as needed, and will take further actions as it sees fit.

Earlier, report showed German factory orders were up 1.2 percent over December, when adjusted for price, calendar and seasonal factors. The office also said it revised the previous month's decline of 0.5 percent to a decline of only 0.2 percent.

Cable fluctuated wildly on Thursday, as despite a brief rise above Wednesday's high of 1.6742 to 1.6753 after the Bank of England kept monetary policy unchanged in a widely anticipated decision, active cross-selling in sterling versus euro knocked price down to 1.6686 in New York morning. Later, cable rallied to session high at 1.6778 in New York afternoon before retreating to 1.6734 near New York closing.

The Bank of England voted to leave U.K. interest rates unchanged at their record low of 0.5%, and also left its quantitative easing program steady at 375 billion pounds.

Active cross-selling in Japanese yen due to increased risk appetite continued to lift usd/jpy pair higher on Thursday. Dollar rose from Australian low at 102.27 to 102.81 in European morning and then further to a fresh one-month peak at 103.17 in New York morning before easing due to some profit-taking.

On the data front, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 26,000 to 323,000 from the previous week's revised total of 349,000.

[B]Data to be release on Friday: [/B]

Japan leading index, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, France trade balance, Italy PPI, Germany industrial production, Canada unemployment rate, labor productivity, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, trade balance, and avg. hourly earnings.

jkt abel 00:29 GMT March 7, 2014
Friday - Asia/NYC

alaidi put it rightly so: those in EU deflationary camp have missed the boat
next we hear is hyperinflation!

jkt abel 00:26 GMT March 7, 2014
Friday - Asia/NYC

i agree with your assessment, they are all nervous now, all lining up to be slaughtered later thinking nfp is gonna be win-win for usd, BS it will be last nail in the coffin of usd instead IMO, there is no looking back anymore for euro and cousins.

jkt abel 00:22 GMT March 7, 2014
Friday - Asia/NYC

Syd sf, similar here as well you see guys say this level should cap euro, gbp, aud, etc only to see those levels blown out later. I mean if one thinks those levels are to be reached why not just go long instead of trying too hard? If it is going that way it will go beyond that as well, trend is your friend.

 




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