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Forex Forum Archive for 03/08/2014

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dc CB 22:52 GMT March 8, 2014

dc CB 20:41 GMT March 7, 2014
Ukraine : Reply
it ain't about bonds or currencies or other "paper" assests. It's about energy. Oil and NG.
This is the perfect cover for a repeal of the ban on US crude Exports, and for a paving the way for more licenses and gob'amint subsidies for the vely vely expensive to start up Exporting of Liquid Nat Gas.
Amerca's Energy Independence meme, transformed by "get those dam Ruskies, squeeze 'em where it hurts"

AmeriKan Politics;
Rule # 1: never hurt the one's you Love (aka finance you and yours)
Business groups are pushing to ensure that any economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States are joined by as much of the rest of the world as possible, warning Congress and the Obama administration that unilateral U.S. action would put tens of billions of dollars of American investment and trade at risk of retaliation.

Top U.S. companies such as PepsiCo, General Electric and others have touted their involvement in Russia as central to their global strategy. That has involved aggressive investing — PepsiCo is now the largest food and beverage company in Russia, earning $4.8 billion in the country in 2012 — and joint ventures such as GE’s with two Russian firms to manufacture gas turbines in Rybinsk. Ford Motor Co. recently announced a partnership with the Sollers car company. Aerospace giants such as Boeing are among the top U.S. exporters to Russia.

As talk of sanctions on Russia heats up, business groups draw cautionary line

HK [email protected] 21:56 GMT March 8, 2014
You Need to Know About the Sniper Leak Read

Video on link


Syd 21:40 GMT March 8, 2014
Weekend news: China trade balance for February: -$22.99bn (yes, a trade deficit) (expected +$14.00b

China trade balance for February: -$22.99bn (yes, a trade deficit) (expected was +$14.00bn, prior was $31.86bn)
Exports for February: -18.1% y/y (expected was +7.5%, prior was +10.6%)
Imports for February: +10.5% y/y (vs. expected was +7.6%, prior was +10.03%)

Some analysis via the Wall Street Journal:

Analysts said, however, that the results, while much weaker than expected, probably reflected distortions from the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday and unfavorable comparisons with unusually high export levels a year earlier.

“I was expecting weak results for February as manufacturers pulled exports forward ahead of the New Year holiday,” said Andrew Polk, economist at the Conference Board. “But I definitely wasn’t expecting results that were this bad.”

HK [email protected] 21:14 GMT March 8, 2014
The Russians are decided to stand their ground by all means.

Russia reinforces military presence in Crimea

SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine (AP) -- Dozens of military trucks transporting heavily armed soldiers rumbled over Crimea's rutted roads Saturday as Russia reinforced its armed presence on the disputed peninsula in the Black Sea. Moscow's foreign minister ruled out any dialogue with Ukraine's new authorities, whom he dismissed as the puppets of extremists.

The Russians have denied their armed forces are active in Crimea, but an Associated Press reporter trailed one military convoy Saturday afternoon from 25 miles (40 kilometers) west of Feodosia to a military airfield at Gvardeiskoe north of Simferopol, over which a Russian flag flew.

Some of the army green vehicles had Russian license plates and numbers indicating that they were from the Moscow region. Some towed mobile kitchens and what appeared to be mobile medical equipment.

HK [email protected] 21:09 GMT March 8, 2014
What are the Soviet Union's ultimate aims? What are the Soviet leaders' real intentions?

After years the west took advantage by encroaching into the Prev. Soviet territories, the Russians have decided that enough is enough, and it is time the west have stopped with this strategy which is placing the whole world in danger.

There is no security matters in all that encroachments, but mainly commercial, because the Russians were not on the way to attack and/or grab any new territories.

From one side the West takes Russia as a friendly capitalistic business partner, but on the other side makes attempts to clip their power wherever it can, including at their doorstep.
So what can we expect?
If we want to have peace, it is first that the West have stopped behaving like a s s holes; Instigate, create and support revolutions in backyards of friends.

Livingston nh 15:12 GMT March 8, 2014
Not too good for the Euro. Good for gold.

JP - just had a longish comment on the article swallowed in cyberspace over on the PF - bottom line Edelman & Co. got it wrong years ago and age has not imparted wisdom // his apology "The crisis in Georgia was a serious matter but unfortunately came in the midst of an American presidential election and at the tail end of an administration that was both physically and psychologically exhausted after seven years of war." -- he misstates the missile issue (undersecretary for policy) and his telling comment about the Defense Budget suggests you follow the money

GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT March 8, 2014
ECB Corrects Market Outlook for Policy: Trading Themes for March 9, 2014

ECB Attitude Adjustment

I was surprised last week that so many observers had been expecting an easing from the ECB last Thursday. It seems as though the quality of economic analysis has been generally deteriorating. As I pointed out in my commentaries over the week, flash February HICP had increased to 0.80% yr/yr from a final 0.70% reading in January plus core flash HICP was 1.00% yr/yr...

ECB Corrects Market Outlook for Policy: Trading Themes for March 9, 2014

Mtl JP 14:26 GMT March 8, 2014
Not too good for the Euro. Good for gold.

nh - from the characters that are (not) behind the curtain:

Why does Ukraine matter so much?

Livingston nh 14:15 GMT March 8, 2014
Not too good for the Euro. Good for gold.

RF - been a surprisingly slow Russian move - at some point Russia must secure some eastern Ukraine land routes to Crimea (only issue is how much) // further to your Kissinger article - "The question is continually asked: What are the Soviet Union's ultimate aims? What are the Soviet leaders' real intentions? It may be the wrong question.... It seems to me more useful, therefore, to view Soviet strategy as essentially one of ruthless opportunism. ... Soviet leaders have identified their interests not with goodwill of countries... but with strategic opportunity as they saw it. To expect the Soviet leaders to restrain themselves from exploiting circumstances they conceive to be favorable is to misread history." from his memoir THE WHITE HOUSE YEARS

HK [email protected] 13:59 GMT March 8, 2014
February 2014 China Trade USDb

Combine it with possible UKR. escalation, and AUD goes down fast fast.

HK [email protected] 13:57 GMT March 8, 2014
Not too good for the Euro. Good for gold.

Mar 8, 7:10 AM EST

Russian troops reported on move again in Crimea

Associated Press


GVI Forex john 13:28 GMT March 8, 2014
February 2014 China Trade USDb

- Earlier News --
-23.0 vs. 14.5 exp. vs. +31.86 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

jkt abel 13:16 GMT March 8, 2014

that's great, euro will fly to the moon if that happens, 1.60 again to be seen

philly caba 12:09 GMT March 8, 2014
The Swiss National Bank is prepared to defend the franc from strengthening further than 1.20 per euro if tensions in Ukraine push up the Swiss currency, Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan told a Swiss newspaper.

“We would intervene and buy unlimited quantities of foreign currency to defend the minimum exchange rate or take other measures if needed,” Jordan is quoted as saying in an interview with Basler Zeitung on Saturday, which also appears in Germany’s Boersenzeitung.

Jordan called the situation in the Ukraine, which the SNB is carefully monitoring, a “risk not to be underestimated.”

via Reuters

nw kw 10:53 GMT March 8, 2014
Event risk - Ukraine

USS. G Bush is in grease last week lock and load

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:49 GMT March 8, 2014
Event risk - Ukraine
MOSCOW — Russia signaled for the first time on Friday that it was prepared to annex the Crimea region of Ukraine, significantly intensifying its confrontation with the West over the political crisis in Ukraine and threatening to undermine a system of respect for national boundaries that has helped keep the peace in Europe and elsewhere for decades.

For First Time, Kremlin Signals It Is Prepared to Annex Crimea

nw kw 10:48 GMT March 8, 2014
China Trade Deficit

what time is china stimulus arriving someone no, copper slammed so hkd gold bid /but trace nzd

HK [email protected] 10:45 GMT March 8, 2014
Tip: Sell Boeing shares.

Boeing 787 wing have 'hairline cracks' on wings says US firm

Plane manufacturers Beoing Co said on Friday that “hairline cracks” had been discovered in the wings of about 40 787 Dreamlines that are in production.

The cracks are the latest trouble for the Dreamliner, a high-tech jet largely made of carbon-fiber composite that has been beset with so-called “teething issues” since entering service in 2011, three years behind schedule.

The cracks have not been found on planes that are in use by the airline, and pose no safety risk, Boeing said, adding the problem also will not change the firm’s plans to deliver 110 of the 787s this year.

But the US company said the cracks, which also occurred on the larger 787-9 model currently which is undergoing flight tests, could delay by a few weeks the date when airlines can take delivery of their new planes.

The disclosure raised questions about repair costs and a possible minor increase in the weight of the plane, but did not seem to spell major trouble for Boeing, industry experts said.

The problem arose after the Japanese Wing-maker Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd altered its manufacturing process. Boeing was notified of the issue in February.

“We are discussing with Boeing how to deal with the problem,” a spokesman for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Tokyo said. He was unable to comment on why the company changed the manufacturing process.

GVI Forex 10:44 GMT March 8, 2014
China Trade Deficit
China's exports unexpectedly tumbled in February, swinging the trade balance into deficit and adding to fears of a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy despite the Lunar New Year holidays being blamed for the slide.

China Feb exports tumble unexpectedly, heighten slowdown fears

bali sja 09:26 GMT March 8, 2014

alimin, that's iffy
but anyway, we have had gap down last monday and we still ended up even higher, so nothing to worry about IMO

makassar alimin 09:21 GMT March 8, 2014

td, but what if censored happens over the weekend and monday morning big gap down, who do you think will rescue suckers above 1.39? something to think about ;)

singapore td 06:36 GMT March 8, 2014

pray that Russia-Ukraine will always give you dips from time to time to ride the trend, otherwise it is up up and away

singapore td 05:38 GMT March 8, 2014
just as it happened to cable, the same is happening to euro now, there is no more looking back IMO soon 1.3 handle is a thing of the past, good luck good trades

singapore td 08:24 GMT February 11, 2014
euro: Reply
this euro reminds me of cable last year, when it was 1.48 the so-called experienced pros kept screaming sell, similar price action when euro was 1.35, sudden snap up and up it flies, maybe not exactly the same but similar psychologically IMO

kl shawn 04:48 GMT March 8, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3866

jkt abel, you really miss the masters of universe? they will come back next week after euro hit 1.3970, probably above 1.40 at the same time as the saxo guy LOL

jkt abel 04:42 GMT March 8, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3866

bali sja, dont forget about gbpusd 1.35, you got to watch the video this weekend, it has some nice background music too :))))

bali sja 04:35 GMT March 8, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3866

jkt abel, yeah i am wrong, it is on a journey below parity but ooops that one was stopped out too at 1.3630
but then again this is the decade of usd, you know? LOL

nw kw 04:34 GMT March 8, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3866

Dr. Qindex .85 for eur/gbp monitoring for eur shift

jkt abel 04:27 GMT March 8, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3866

no you are wrong bali,sja, euro is crashing, epic meltdown, avalanche, imminent crash, 4x made easy :)))))))

bali sja 04:20 GMT March 8, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3866

thanks for the updated levels Dr. Qindex
wow that is a nightmare call early week for usd bulls after what happened last week LOL
so looks like 1.3960-70 is a sure-fire trade next week, [email protected] is also looking at that number
me myself sticking with 1.42 after 1.3850 taken out

Melbourne Qindex 04:14 GMT March 8, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3866

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The market is positive when it is able to close above the critical level at 1.3866 - 1.3870 in the New York session. The market has good potential to tackle the range at 1.3930 - 1.3986 in early next week.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

tokyo ginko 04:12 GMT March 8, 2014
Tip: Sell Boeing shares.

almost 12 hours since the last contact , still no news...???

HK [email protected] 02:01 GMT March 8, 2014
Tip: Sell Boeing shares.

That 777 is unreliable!!!

HK [email protected] 01:55 GMT March 8, 2014
Worth reading

Seems like Kissinger has moderated himself over the years, realizing what his wrongdoings may cause.

So what to do with FX?

Buy Euro on pullbacks if any.

Mtl JP 00:51 GMT March 8, 2014
Worth reading

[email protected] 22:03 - what do you see as the "worth" in reading it ?
tia 4 any hopefully posi-pip trade ideas


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