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Forex Forum Archive for 03/09/2014

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GVI Forex Blog 23:39 GMT March 9, 2014
Forex News
* Yen up broadly as China data weighs on risk appetite

* Aussie under pressure, particularly against the yen

* Kiwi supported ahead of possible rate hike this week

FOREX NEWS - Yen in favour, Aussie pressured as China data disappoints

Memphis Charles 22:32 GMT March 9, 2014
Welcome back !

"NOW this is for STG/Yen. I cut my teeth on this pair."

What a pretty trend on the weekly.

Melbourne Qindex 21:47 GMT March 9, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3866

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Analysis

The odds are in favour of taking a long position when the market is trading above the barrier of 1.3687 // 1.3744. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the weekly cycle pivot centre at 1.4104. The current weekly cycle pivot centres are positioning at 1.3847 - 1.3912 - 1.4104 which are marked with yellow colour (see details at the front page of website, ). The next two upside targets are 1.3912 and 1.4006.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts (updated)

Syd 21:42 GMT March 9, 2014
Malaysian Flt MH370: Pilot Headed to Japan Made Contact, 4 Suspicious Passengers? 2 Uighurs on Fligh
Vietnamese searchers looking for a missing Malaysian Airline Boeing Co. (BA) 777-200 said they found a suspected window fragment as efforts to learn the plane’s fate extended to scrutiny of closed-circuit television images of two passengers using stolen passports.

Plane-Debris Hunt Turns Up Suspected Aircraft Window Part

Syd 21:37 GMT March 9, 2014
Better Dollar Tone Coming


Technical and fundamental considerations urge dollar bears to be cautious.
Many of the foreign currencies are over-stretched.
Only large IMM position adjustment was a jump in gross euro longs.

The euro and Swiss franc rose to new highs since Q4 2011, while sterling moved to within half a cent of the best level since 2009 set in mid-February in recent days. The market was all rife with speculation of a break out. However, our reading of the technical and fundamental condition suggests dollar bears tread carefully.

If the past week was about the lack of escalation in both Russia/Ukraine and China, coupled with the ECB holding pat, next week may see the pendulum swing back a bit. This could lend itself to a more consolidative trading, which in the current context may be somewhat supportive of the greenback.

With a referendum planned in Crimea next weekend that will likely lead Russia's annexation, the confrontation may escalate again. Although the yuan strengthened in the past week, we suspect that uncertainty spurred by the first on-shore default and the apparent official desire to inject more volatility may weigh on the yuan.

China unexpectedly reported a large trade deficit in February, and although it was the distorted by the lunar new year, some will see evidence that the yuan is now overvalued.

Syd sf 20:38 GMT March 9, 2014
Student needs help to understand FX market

no thanks

Syd sf 20:35 GMT March 9, 2014
February 2014 China Trade USDb

article today says Chinese are pricing first time home buyers out of the market in the 550,000 - 750,000 area.

lower Aud will only encourage more buyers to come here - it's a bubble imo ..... you can't buy a house in the area I am for less than 1.1 / 1.2 million and that's for a tiny older place let along something more modern.

if this was the US people would be complaining alot more about it.

Syd sf 20:29 GMT March 9, 2014
Student needs help to understand FX market

FX - is not the wildwest it once was - so the value of an Fx Site these days is alot lower than before.

Plus your going to get sued by people when they lose money using the services you provide - whether your in the right or in the wrong via legal disclaimers.

Probably finally once you go through all that trouble your only going to end up with people who look for a fast buck and leave and small accounts where your profit is minimal.

You would be better to just trade your own money - be responsible to no-one and avoid be sued once a month.

philly caba 19:06 GMT March 9, 2014
It seems there's eur/chf, usd/jpy gap down again. Buying both at opening in two hours. No guts no glory.

Nice to see you again Caribbean! Rafe..!!! Welcome back!

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:38 GMT March 9, 2014
Welcome back !

sorry. my mistake

13978 (high) should be (high so far is 13914)

so the next target is 13978

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:37 GMT March 9, 2014
Welcome back !



Caribbean! Rafe... 18:34 GMT March 9, 2014
Student needs help to understand FX market

I'll tell you something kid. Don't waste your life chasing money, wait for it to come to you, same philosophy can be applied to the markets.

gl gt.

Columbus SK 18:31 GMT March 9, 2014
Student needs help to understand FX market

I'm a graduate student at Fisher College, The Ohio State University working on a class project researching if there is a market for Forex websites that provides trade call recommendations from successful traders as well as Forex
educational resources. I would really welcome your thoughts on the concept and what features of this kind of offering you feel might provide value to a retail trader. I would appreciate it if you would respond to the survey linked below.

Please comment or contact me if you would be willing to help. Thank you in advance! Looking forward to learn more about the forex market through this survey.


Caribbean! Rafe... 18:30 GMT March 9, 2014
Welcome back !

NOW this is for STG/Yen. I cut my teeth on this pair.

Anyways... fwiw... I have 162.89, 192.29, 221.69

{162.89+192.29}/2}= 177.59, {177.59+162.89}/2=170.24.

Just take a look at 170.24 on the weekly/daily charts, thats how we know the level is correct.

Just think of plucking a rubber band and watching the pair at any stated levels.

london red 18:15 GMT March 9, 2014
Slow Week for Data. Markets are weighing Draghi vs. U.S. Jobs

referendum vote, actually no need to rig this as majority in crimea are russian speaking with close ties to the ussr and would back a stronger union.
real question is do they have the right to split as recently apointed government is not recognised by ukraine or any state.

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:09 GMT March 9, 2014
Welcome back !

Joe// Thanks for the kind words. Your right the model is very accurate, it has taken me many many years to build it simply sheer hard work, forget about enjoying weekends and just go all out and burn the midnight oil. =)

Need to start working on euro will be back in 5 minutes, considering if analysis on STG/Yen is worth any salt in todays market.

Cambridge Joe 18:00 GMT March 9, 2014
Welcome back !
Rafe a reappearance after some 2.5 years and with a system which never loses. Good for you.

Now, a short film which depicts the future course of the Rouble.

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:58 GMT March 9, 2014

Key levels 101.93, Just take a look at yen on this level, we have been stitching through this level since 2013 and just 2 months left for 1 year.

Next level is 113.05. This is a ULT level and may take years if not months... Just write this level down on a post it note and stick it some place safe.

I'm getting back into the groove and am amazed at my own level of fortitude...

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:34 GMT March 9, 2014
Slow Week for Data. Markets are weighing Draghi vs. U.S. Jobs

Russia has no money, if they get kicked out of G8 then they will only have to resort to barter paying their soldiers with cabbages and carrots instead of paper money.... I guess we will see a repeat of the army people swapping marlboro's for whatever it is they fancy... USA always likes to be like cindi lauper... if your lost, you can look and you will find me...

GVI Forex john 16:31 GMT March 9, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

March 9, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 10. Updated: Trading Events Calendar


  • Far East: JP- GDP, Tertiary Activity Index.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: No Major Data.

GVI Forex john 16:05 GMT March 9, 2014
Slow Week for Data. Markets are weighing Draghi vs. U.S. Jobs

Jay- the Crimea vote is a sham and everyone knows how it will turn out. If it matters, it has no international validity.

U.S. sanctions will be a joke and no one will care.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:51 GMT March 9, 2014
Worth Reading
Articles of interest posted this past week:

- ECB Corrects Market Outlook for Policy: Trading Themes for March 9, 2014
- Beware of Broker Spreads
- Why the USDJPY Correlation Trade Matters to You
- Trading News? Beware of the Freight Train
- Do Spreads Really Matter?
- Top Macro Economic Data Releases for Trading: GDP

Read latest articles now

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:31 GMT March 9, 2014
Slow Week for Data. Markets are weighing Draghi vs. U.S. Jobs

Ukraine has a chance of becoming a factor again March 16 Crimea votes whether to secede

Also US may issue sanctions

GVI Forex Blog 12:38 GMT March 9, 2014
Slow Week for Data. Markets are weighing Draghi vs. U.S. Jobs
High Impact News Items: JP- GDP

February U.S. employment data and (revisions) on Friday were better than expected in light of the bad weather this winter. Some are saying the data now have a decent base when there is a seasonal catch-up in March-April. On the other hand, the ECB is in no position to ease policy in the foreseeable future.

Slow Week for Data. Markets are weighing Draghi vs. U.S. Jobs

GVI Forex 11:34 GMT March 9, 2014
Russian forces tighten grip on Crimea despite U.S. warning
(Reuters) - Russian forces tightened their grip on Crimea on Sunday despite a U.S. warning to Moscow that annexing the southern Ukrainian region would close the door to diplomacy in a tense East-West standoff.

Russian forces tighten grip on Crimea despite U.S. warning

bali sja 10:41 GMT March 9, 2014
February 2014 China Trade USDb

Syd sf, properties boom only in CBD, mostly apartments being rented, they are owned not by Australians but by foreigners mainly rich Indonesians and mainland Chinese.

Syd sf 08:56 GMT March 9, 2014
February 2014 China Trade USDb

the people looking at the past - like the AUD because it has had the best performance of alot of these economies - and obviously the weather here leaves nothing to chance.

.... but when you start looking forward - then the economy has some real challenges to overcome.

if there was some chance of a change in interest rates then things may move quicker .. but there seems little chance of that at this stage.

also for people not living in Australia - there is still a property boom going on here - where prices just keep rising ... its alot like the comments you read about the London Market to be honest.


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