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Forex Forum Archive for 03/12/2014

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Syd sf 23:56 GMT March 12, 2014
Asia

Machinery Orders were expected like 7% came out 14%

supportive for $yen on the day .. Nikkei opens in 5 or so minutes.

Yesterdays drop in the Nikkei was the 3rd largest -- overall was like 600 points - from prior close to o/n low.

Syd sf 23:31 GMT March 12, 2014
Asia

as far as the Nikkei goes - they are saying - it's not the Japanese doing the selling .. it's all hedge fund liquidation.

Syd sf 23:18 GMT March 12, 2014
Asia
Reply   
70% of Japanese Companies have agreed to give workers pay raises of some sort .. as reported yesterday Govt considering action against those who don't.

Machinery Orders out on 30 or so minutes - has become more important than it ever used to be.

I don't see any change from yesterday -- if $yen stays the same or drops .. Nikkei will stay under pressure.

Aud Employment Data and China Data -- euraud and gbpaud are the things that should more the most today.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:14 GMT March 12, 2014
Australian Lawyer Needed
Reply   
I am trying to help ouit someone in need of an Australian lawyer who can help in a dispute with a forex broker. please send the name to me at [email protected]

Syd 22:31 GMT March 12, 2014
Kiwis Lift Rates, As Expected, More To Come
Reply   
The strong New Zealand economy has seen the country's central bank lift interest rates this morning by a quarter of a per cent to 2.75%, the first movement in rates for three years. And the bank left markets in no doubt that more rate rises are in the offing.

LINK

Syd 22:29 GMT March 12, 2014
How Long Can This Bull Market Last?
Reply   
How Long Can This Bull Market Last?
Switzer Super Report looks at the "investment clock" and just what time it may be today.

LINK

Livingston nh 22:24 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

AL - yep, but some folks didn't read the memo - buying treasurys is being tight ((Ben got that part wrong or maybe not?)

Dillon AL 22:11 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

nh and to add to your currency with a coupon (with which I wholeheartedly agree) one could imagine at some stage just when everyone thinks their backs are to the wall where the FED hands over its portfolio to the Treasury for cancelation. voila at the stroke of the pen x trillion wiped off the debt

Cambridge Joe 21:55 GMT March 12, 2014
Sue Grabbit & Runne
Reply   
The International Law firm of Sue Grabbit & Runne come highly recommended as do Shylock Leech & Filch.

I love Lawyers, but couldn't eat a whole one.

USDX firms into Asia. IMO. GL

Livingston nh 21:55 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

jeeeezz - how do you find this stuff?

dc CB 21:49 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

ya

and that's the truth

Livingston nh 21:48 GMT March 12, 2014
The Achilles Heel

The effectiveness of US expenditure on drug denial, enforcement and incarceration can be compared to the Ukrainian expenditure on its military -- waste is waste

GVI Forex 21:48 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

US TSYS/RESEARCH: RBS analysts Gabriel Man said that "we expect 10yr yields to remain in the grips of a longer term range between ~2.50% and 3.00%. Fade the extremes of this range but expect a choppy ride in the coming days since rates are near the middle of their multi-month ranges." He adds that "we're unexcited about adding new trades at mid-range rate levels with a muddy technical and fundamental backdrop."

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

Livingston nh 21:39 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

There are those who think the US paper is toxic, doomed or cursed - my thought is that such paper is merely currency w/ a coupon -

*** The auction was strong with a 0.8 bp stop-through and non-dealer bidding at 70.9% vs. 61% norm ***
* 10-year auction stops at 2.729% vs. 2.737% 1-pm bid WI.
* Dealers were awarded 29.1% vs. 39% average of last four 10-year Reopenings.
* Indirects get 43.4% vs. 42% norm.
* Directs take 27.5% vs. 19% average.
* Bid/Cover was 2.92 vs. 2.68 average of last four.
* Dealer Hit-Ratio: Dealers take 14% of what they bid for vs. 22% norm.
* Indirect Hit-Ratio: Customers take 75 of what they bid for vs. 83% norm.

dc CB 21:28 GMT March 12, 2014
Oil

Oy the spread Brent/WTI at the Globex close is $10.13

too juicy to let stand.

Cambridge Joe 21:27 GMT March 12, 2014
Oil
Reply   
98.62 says that oil is buying this side of 00:00 GMT

09:00 GMT and oil remains < 98.50 until then..... up up and away.

Shorts... lock it or loose it !

IMO. GL

dc CB 21:19 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

"Bid to cover strong as well - this was a re-open (2.75%) // amazing what folks pay for something that "allegedly" nobody wants"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

used to be the way to tell that "nobody wants" was to look at the various takedowns. If the Primary Dealers took 40 - 50 or The World is Ending for us it's more than ... %, it was looked at as a "failed auction"

Gee maybeeee some bright "intern" said at one of those "the world is ending" post mortems....Hey Dude, why not change the designation at to what constitutes a "Direct".

Whoaaaaaaaaaa....Bofoooooo auctions from that date.

That "intern". He suffered an unusual and untimely termination(death). As the Capo sez: da dead, dey don't talk.

GVI Forex john 21:16 GMT March 12, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



March 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, March 14. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Employment, EZ- Industrial Output, Retail Sales, Weekly Jobless, 30-yr

  • Far East: AU- Employment.
  • Europe: EZ- Industrial Output.
  • North America: US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Weekly Jobless, Business Inventories, Natural Gas, 30-yr auction.


GVI Forex 20:57 GMT March 12, 2014
March 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand

RBNZ Quick Market Thoughts.
Imre Speizer

The RBNZ's MPS, just released, has increased the OCR by 25bp to 2.75% - widely expected - but there was enough otherwise to positively surprise the market.
7:28AM, 13 Mar 2014

GVI Forex Blog 20:16 GMT March 12, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The mildly risk averse theme extended into its third day. There was little fresh news of significance, Ukrainian geopolitics and China's economy again the concerning factors. That

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

Paris ib 20:14 GMT March 12, 2014
The Achilles Heel

Yeah the weed lobby is a worry. Get the whole country stoned that's gonna help !!

dc CB 20:12 GMT March 12, 2014
The Achilles Heel

Paris ib

if you need any better understanding as why, suddenly, all the politicians are scrambling to Legalize Mary Jane. Then the last part---pretty much make the case.

Our governor...who has hopes for a run for the WH has been told that he needs to get behind legalizing in the state(Maryland), if he wants to be a contender in the primaries.

The need to destroy the memory and the thought processes of the population is in full swing. Great Bud Dude....'nother toke.

facts about america:
#13 Only 30 percent of all Americans can tell you in what year the 9/11 attacks happened.

Paris ib 20:08 GMT March 12, 2014
March 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand

John I was wondering about this... we have been living in a benevolent sort of lull with low rates as far as the eye can see.... but as that comes to an end the financial landscape will change globally. Bit early but worth pondering.

GVI Forex john 20:07 GMT March 12, 2014
March 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand

ib- I can't speak for every country, but believe rates are in the process of bottoming NZ is well ahead of everyone else.

Paris ib 20:03 GMT March 12, 2014
March 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Have interest rates bottomed out world wide? Or do we just ignore this?

GVI Forex john 20:02 GMT March 12, 2014
March 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Reply   
Statement issued by Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler:

The Reserve Bank today increased the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.

New Zealand’s economic expansion has considerable momentum, and growth is becoming more broad-based. GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.3 percent in the year to March. Growth is gradually increasing in New Zealand’s trading partners. However, improvements in major economies have required exceptional support from monetary policy. Global financial conditions continue to be very accommodating, with bond yields in most advanced countries low and equity markets performing strongly...

Reserve Bank raises OCR to 2.75 percent

GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT March 12, 2014
March 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Hikes rates by 25bp to 2.75%, as expected


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

HK [email protected] 19:58 GMT March 12, 2014
GBP
Reply   


Everyone is waiting for a new dip to buy GBP lower.

Target over the next few days 1.6920, for those who will be patient and not shaken out.

Paris ib 19:56 GMT March 12, 2014
The Achilles Heel

nh - whatever. You have to make a choice: buy or sell. And the USD is under pressure at the moment. USD/JPY is interesting. Everyone is long, all the analysts are bullish.... but it's fading. They are beating the European deflation story to death and the EUR/USD is rallying....

Livingston nh 19:50 GMT March 12, 2014
The Achilles Heel

ib - PETA has me under a restraining order about beating DEAD HORSES so I can only say that's ridiculous and leave it there

Paris ib 19:47 GMT March 12, 2014
The Achilles Heel

Well he has a point: domestically they can hold the market, the problem (the risk) is the USD.

Livingston nh 19:47 GMT March 12, 2014
The Achilles Heel

CB - you think he might have read the book -- everything is political w/ this mope

dc CB 19:45 GMT March 12, 2014
The Achilles Heel

I'm actually watching this as you post.

I was going to recom it later in the evening.

first 30 mins worth it

Paul Craig Roberts Explains: Oceania V Eurasia, why it's not a novel anymore.

Livingston nh 19:42 GMT March 12, 2014
The Achilles Heel

Paul Caig berts hasn't had a clue for over 20 yrs - see his stupid WSJ article from the '80s about the mythic "crowding out" -- this guy was Kudlow b4 Kudlow

GVI Forex john 19:39 GMT March 12, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Paris ib 19:36 GMT March 12, 2014
The Achilles Heel
Reply   
In a bit of a long winded video - Paul Craig Roberts makes the point that the U.S. Administration is not concerned about bond yields (they can print dollars to buy as much as they want in the U.S. bond market). Their real concern is a run on the USD, because they can't print foreign currencies to buy USDs if the selling starts. He's not optimistic about the outcome.

Here's Paul

GVI Forex john 19:28 GMT March 12, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


Livingston nh 19:20 GMT March 12, 2014
EUR & SPX
Reply   
15 min chart - EUR/USD = 1.39 critical (21 ma) and SPX (declining 40 ma and break of 21 ma 1865) // 1.3870 (4 hr) and 1860 targets (close has been bias up for SPX)

GVI Forex Blog 19:15 GMT March 12, 2014
"Risk-off" Trading to Persist into Weekend? Key Data thru Friday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: AU- Employment, EZ- Industrial Output, Retail Sales, Weekly Jobless, 30-yr

Forex trading moved to the sidelines Wednesday in the absence of key trading news. Trading was dominated by a "risk-off" post with fixed income prices up and equities lower. After a rocky start, U.S. equity markets gained from their lows over the day.

"Risk-off" Trading to Persist into Weekend? Key Data thru Friday

dc CB 18:29 GMT March 12, 2014
Why Stox won't crash
Reply   
not as long as Da Boys can shovel this stuff out.
_____________________________________________

The maker of Candy Crush Saga, the hugely popular puzzle game, said on Wednesday that it hoped to raise as much as $532.8 million in its initial public offering, valuing the company at nearly $7.6 billion.

In a revised prospectus, the company, King Digital Entertainment, said it planned to price its shares at $21 to $24 apiece. At the midpoint of that range, the company would raise $499.5 million and be valued at roughly $7.1 billion.

The company plans to list its stock on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol KING.

JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse and Bank of America Merrill Lynch are leading the offering.

Maker of Candy Crush Game Seeks Valuation Near $7.6 Billion in I.P.O.

GVI Forex john 18:27 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

With 10-yr yields at these levels the FOMC will have no qualms about tapering again a week from now.

Livingston nh 18:26 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Bid to cover strong as well - this was a re-open (2.75%) // amazing what folks pay for something that "allegedly" nobody wants

dc CB 18:24 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

one confirming that the smart money continues to prefer allocation to fixed income, instead of believing the latest "growth stories" explaining away the second coming of the dot com bubble in Bernanke's centrally-planned farce of a market.

Stellar 10 Year Auction Stops 1.4 bps Through, Highest Bid To Cover, Lowest Dealer Award In One Year

GVI Forex john 18:22 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Strong 10-yr auction came in at 2.729%.

Cash 10-yr last 2.726%

2.70% back in view...

Livingston nh 18:00 GMT March 12, 2014
U.S. Warning to Russia??

JP - too much complacency about Ukraine (any time two guys have guns mistakes can happen - the shot heard 'round the world) - so bet the usual suspects - treasuries, USD, gold, swissie, short stox - as a bonus one of the other situations may jump back on the radar

london red 17:15 GMT March 12, 2014
EURGBP

safe haven bid helped it out earlier otherwise think we'd have done the support by now. think above 16650 im wrong and i look for 167 before any real pullback. certainly will be more comfortable after another pop in eurgbp, will clear out some more stale longs in cable and give it a chance.

Cambridge Joe 16:57 GMT March 12, 2014
EURGBP

Cable will doubtless go to the stars now that I've bailed !

Sold e/$ 3907.

Mtl JP 16:50 GMT March 12, 2014
Wednesday's Trading Outlook

I forgot... the swissie

Cambridge Joe 16:45 GMT March 12, 2014
EURGBP

tks red. Very kind ! ATM I have it pitched lower for at least a few hours.
I just snuffed a cable long for a misewrly +20, as it looks as if it will soften soon.

dc CB 16:36 GMT March 12, 2014
U.S. Warning to Russia??

GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT March 12, 2014 - My Profile
U.S. Warning to Russia??: Reply
Now U.S. Energy Department says the SPR release has been planned for a while. If this action were routine, couldn't they have waited for a couple of weeks so their action would not be misconstrued?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

This was a coincidence????????

Just annc the release a few mins before the EIA releases a Huge Build in crude stocks? On top of that every oil Speculator has been way long (up to $105) on the Putin scare....ooopppp that contract takes delivery next week....ooooopps Mr Spec really don't want no stinking oil....gots to roll to the next month....oooppppssss

These guys that are pulling the strings are not fools, they regularly "Kill the Shorts" in the stock market. And "Crush the Longs" on the Comex.

Maximum pain for the Ruskies...sending oil down farther than it would have gone if the timing hadn't been so precise.

london red 16:30 GMT March 12, 2014
EURGBP

200 and 50 week sorry

london red 16:25 GMT March 12, 2014
EURGBP

looking for c 8400 Joe, then willing seller with stop above 200 and 50 day mas. couple of big fibs at that figure too.
cable getting support at 16605 but still think we need to look at support below one more time. 2 day hourly bar chart shows drift lower nicely.

Cambridge Joe 16:09 GMT March 12, 2014
EURGBP
Reply   
eurgbp southbound IMO. GL

Sold entry 8368.

GVI Forex john 15:31 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, fixed income markets remain in a clear "risk-off" posture as the weekend vote in Crimea approaches. It appears the U.S. has made a shot across the bow against Russia, as it has has indicated that it will be releasing a token amount of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for a "test of the system".

European equities are still trading lower, but are well off their lows of the day. U.S. equities are now higher at midday in North America. The peripheral European bond prices are ending lower.



Amman wfakhoury 15:30 GMT March 12, 2014
GBP/JPY

Yes ..it is heading twd 171.10 any decline below 17065 will return to it

london red 15:22 GMT March 12, 2014
S&p
Reply   
If to close now, colossal tail on daily s&p candle would be v bullish. Last chance for bears to flip this at 1867 and can still see low today.

Amman wfakhoury 15:16 GMT March 12, 2014
GBP/JPY

still heading twd 169 area unless it breaks up 171.20.

--------------
170.43 will be reached again
--------------------
Sorry 170.43 already reached again ..it is now possible to rise to 171.10

Amman wfakhoury 15:14 GMT March 12, 2014
GBP/JPY

Amman wfakhoury 15:03 GMT 03/12/2014
Johannesburg HvW 14:49 GMT 03/12/2014
------------
still heading twd 169 area unless it breaks up 171.20.

--------------
170.43 will be reached again

GVI Forex john 15:14 GMT March 12, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


March 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, March 14. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- RBNZ Decision, AU- Employment, EZ- Industrial Output, Retail Sales, Weekly Jobless, 30-yr

  • Far East: NZ- RBNZ Decision, AU- Employment.
  • Europe: EZ- Industrial Output.
  • North America: US- ImPort Prices, Retail Sales, Weekly Jobless, Business Inventories, Natural Gas, 30-yr auction.


Amman wfakhoury 15:05 GMT March 12, 2014
GBPUSD 16596

Amman wfakhoury 14:11 GMT 03/12/2014
16595 will be reached again
------------------16596 reached

Amman wfakhoury 15:03 GMT March 12, 2014
GBP/JPY

Johannesburg HvW 14:49 GMT 03/12/2014
------------
still heading twd 169 area unless it breaks up 171.20.

GVI Forex john 14:56 GMT March 12, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Well the U.S. appears to have raised the stakes with the "test" release of oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve. Crude last $98.75 -1.49. After the fall in oil we saw a +6.200 mln build in weekly crude supplies.

I hate political markets because of the uncertainties they create and because the behavior of political players is not always predictable.

A heightening of East-West tensions would presumably be EUR negative. Russia could counter by cutting back on nat gas exports to Europe. Germany cannot be comfortable with this action.

GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT March 12, 2014
U.S. Warning to Russia??

Now U.S. Energy Department says the SPR release has been planned for a while. If this action were routine, couldn't they have waited for a couple of weeks so their action would not be misconstrued?

Chennai AMI 14:50 GMT March 12, 2014
GBPUSD 16596

Thanks

Johannesburg HvW 14:49 GMT March 12, 2014
GBP/JPY
Reply   
Mr. Wfakhoury, your view on GBP/JPY please or are we still heading for the 169.00-area as previously mentioned?

Thanks in advance.

Amman wfakhoury 14:45 GMT March 12, 2014
GBPUSD 16596

Chennai AMI 14:25 GMT 03/12/2014
wfakhoury : hello sir, your comment on gold please.

GOLD 1381 confirmed and will be reached ...any decline below 1365.40 will return to it.
Incase decline below 1365.40 we need 1 hr bar to close above it to reconfirm 1381 again.

Mtl JP 14:39 GMT March 12, 2014
U.S. Warning to Russia??

nh pray tell how exactly you bet on President Putin
tia

Livingston nh 14:37 GMT March 12, 2014
U.S. Warning to Russia??

Always tentative never specific -- just enough to muck things up but not fix anything (hey how about a pipeline??) -- EU and US and UN and all the king's horses and all the men aren't going to put Ukraine together again // Russia will not respond to economic pressure - my bet is Putin raises stakes before Sunday in order to establish better negotiating position

GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT March 12, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +6.200 vs. +2.000 exp vs. +1.43 prev.
Gasoline: -5.200 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.600 prev.
Distillates:-0.530 vs. -0.500 exp vs. +1.400 prev.
Cap/Util: 86.0% vs. 87.10% exp vs. 86.80% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 14:25 GMT March 12, 2014
U.S. Warning to Russia??
Reply   
U.S. to Release Crude From Strategic Petroleum Reserve
U.S. to release up to 5m bbls of crude from Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), Reuters reports, citing govt “source.”
SPR to be test sale,

Chennai AMI 14:25 GMT March 12, 2014
GBPUSD 16596

wfakhoury : hello sir, your comment on gold please.

london red 14:24 GMT March 12, 2014
-
Reply   
Both s&p and yen bounced off important fibs, s&p in particular 23.6% of late rally. So should be a good marker. If below expect significant downside.

GVI Forex john 14:15 GMT March 12, 2014
Wednesday's Trading Outlook

Building explosion and collapse at 116 Street and Park Ave raise terrorist concerns earlier. Very unlikely to be a terrorist event, but it has halted Metro-North Commuter trains in and out of the Northern end of Manhattan. We are well past rush hour now.

Amman wfakhoury 14:11 GMT March 12, 2014
GBPUSD 16596
Reply   
16595 will be reached again

Mtl JP 13:42 GMT March 12, 2014
Wednesday's Trading Outlook

for up/down risk aversion signal all u need is to watch priceaction of usdyen and/or Gold

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:32 GMT March 12, 2014
Wednesday's Trading Outlook
Reply   
As posted earlier on GVIForex




Daily Forex Trading Outlook


Risk aversion into the weekend?

Tirane lajm-shqip 13:11 GMT March 12, 2014
German Schäuble

http://www.lajm-shqip.com/

lajm shqip

kl shawn 13:08 GMT March 12, 2014
German Schäuble

the most ridiculous call was for euro's journey to below parity IMO

jkt abel 13:04 GMT March 12, 2014
German Schäuble

lol, you guys just realised how the Germans have screwed you all? should have realised that long time ago that the Germans' hidden ambition since WWII and the Nazis is still very much alive! the rest of EU can now become slave economically

zurich fxtrader 12:59 GMT March 12, 2014
German Schäuble

euro is not deutsche mark. germany out of euro or....other countries (italy Mr renzi already pointed out) back to own currencies

GVI Forex 12:55 GMT March 12, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

S&P dragging USDJPY lower. New LOD in S&P

HK [email protected] 12:52 GMT March 12, 2014
Yen will likely come close to 102
Reply   
/

HK [email protected] 12:51 GMT March 12, 2014
cable



The potential upswing for cable is better than that for the Euro

jkt abel 12:49 GMT March 12, 2014
cable

agree [email protected], 100% for 1.70 now, no more turning back

HK [email protected] 12:48 GMT March 12, 2014
cable



Probably cable will not see below 1.6600 for sometime.

jkt abel 12:47 GMT March 12, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

another failed rally by usd, euro should continue moving north IMO, cant see otherwise

PAR 12:46 GMT March 12, 2014
German Schäuble
Reply   
Schäuble : European interest rates too low from a German point of view . 1.4000 before 1.3000.

Livingston nh 12:35 GMT March 12, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Today may be one of those pivotal days - usually the radar screen can only handle one worry at a time but there are a lot of items in holding patterns - different markets may try to push their pet worries onto the worry radar - buckle up, next few days may be bumpy

GVI Forex john 12:24 GMT March 12, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Watching S&P ti USDJPY trade this morning Correlation is very tight at the moment. DAX is getting slammed.

GVI Forex john 11:09 GMT March 12, 2014
Your Best Trade Today
Reply   
ECB officials have been all over te wires today trying to "clarify" Draghi's comments from a week ago. Some call it "damage control". I would not call it damage control. I would say that it is intentional "obfuscation".

The ECB is running a policy (verbal) for everyone. Their monetary policy is geared to Germany. If you want to know what they are ACTUALLY going to do, watch the German economy. BTW its recovery has been gradual and solid. Don't bet the ranch on ECB ease.

Today the markets are in a clear "risk-off" posture. Keep an eye on equities if you want too have a good handle on which way the wind is blowing. At this hour they are all weaker. If the S&P is going to weaken, then it is likely to drag the USDJPY lower.

Any Thoughts?

Syd sf 10:51 GMT March 12, 2014
gbp/aud

it got up to the 00 but now closed below 75 -- > seems back to sideways in this one .. euraud more of a trend in that one.

GVI Forex Blog 10:28 GMT March 12, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Risk aversion theme continued to simmer aided by concerns on potential corporate defaults in China and the intricate link between overextended loans. Copper continued to trade lower and tested fresh four-year lows

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB members clarify stance; PBoC said to be ready to cut RRR if GDP falls below 7.5%

Mtl JP 10:05 GMT March 12, 2014
gbp/aud

is it the aud leg that is doing the moving ?

Syd sf 10:01 GMT March 12, 2014
gbp/aud
Reply   
gbp/aud - just breaking through 1.8575 .. next level 1.8645

GVI Forex Blog 09:53 GMT March 12, 2014
Markets in a defensive "risk-off" Posture Early Wednesday.
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- 10-YR, NZ- RBNZ Decision

Today is off to a "risk-off" posture for the major markets with fixed income prices up and equities lower. The major USD pair in forex are narrowly mixed, which implies that the same is generally true for the major crosses.

Markets in a defensive "risk-off" Posture Early Wednesday.

jkt abel 09:51 GMT March 12, 2014
cable

agree red, only idiots will believe the deflationary story in EU, Soros bought a multimillion dollar property in Spain for a reason.

those believing in deflationary story in EU and buy usd will clearly miss the boat, usd is going down for a few more years IMO

GVI Forex john 09:37 GMT March 12, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, financial markets are in a clear risk-off posture at this hour. We think they may be following The lead pf U.S. equities from late Tuesday. The first significant data news of the week comes on Thursday Prices in prime fixed income markets are broadly higher.

European equities are down. Far East equities ended sharply lower. U.s. S&P futures are weaker at this hour. The peripheral European bond prices are soft.


Mtl JP 09:33 GMT March 12, 2014
While asset prices can rise and fall, debt endures
Reply   
according Mark Carney, formerly of the BoC, now at the BoE.
he also claimed that “This cannot continue''. a claim he first made I believe in 2009
-
ffrwrd to 2014: Debt Exceeds $100 Trillion as Governments Binge according to bbrg

douglas IOM cookie 09:28 GMT March 12, 2014
YEN

Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 9015 Target: Stop:

all on a trip down thanks to china

Mtl JP 09:21 GMT March 12, 2014
YEN

yen (i.e dlryen) is currently breaking its recent downside range

nw kw 09:10 GMT March 12, 2014
cable

good gbp has rom to grow tks

london red 08:59 GMT March 12, 2014
cable

uk, western europe, prices going up. dont listen to rubbish about deflation is europe as deals are being done and asset prices on the ground are firming. money is being spent again,. cautiously, but being spent nonetheless. actually cee is where there is a lag. but there here prices are at worst stagnant looking at larger cities.

nw kw 08:52 GMT March 12, 2014
cable

xgbp going up xeur not eur/gbp can run up

nw kw 08:44 GMT March 12, 2014
cable

red-- are thing getting pricey to live in gbp yet

london red 08:39 GMT March 12, 2014
cable
Reply   
currently attempting to double bottom ahead of yesterdays low, but feel we may need to see a tad lower before rallying. support at 16580 and must hold at 16540 for trend to continue.
someone mentioned crossing of 10 day thru 20 day, generally it marks the bottom of a move in the short term at the very least, so looking for cable to make a low today, with a rally by tomorrow at latest.

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:02 GMT March 12, 2014
AceTrader Mar 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Mar 2014 06:43GMT

USD/JPY - 102.87... Despite dlr's rebound after a brief sell off to 102.79 at Asian open, cross-related selling capped gain at 103.10 in Tokyo morning and price subsequently fell to 102.84 in European morning before stabilizing.

Offers are noted at 103.00-10 and then 103.25/30 with stops emerging above 103.50, whilst bids are placed at 102.65/60 and around 102.50 with mixture of bids and stops located at 102.35/30.


05:01GMT
USD/JPY - 102.98...Japan Feb Consumer Confidence Index came in at 38.3, lower than the expectation of 40.0.

Syd 06:40 GMT March 12, 2014
Australian Dollar Down on Weak Data; China Worries
Reply   
SYDNEY--The Australian dollar was lower Wednesday after more negative economic news and a belief financial instability in China will see more commodity-price falls and equity-market losses.

At 0545 GMT the Australian dollar was at US$0.8952 compared with US$0.9028 Tuesday.

A fall in March consumer sentiment was the first blow to the Aussie dollar in Asia trading and was quickly followed by the government statistician announcing the number of Australian home-loan approvals was flat in January while property investment cooled after a recent burst, traders said.

A Westpac Banking Corp./Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment fell 0.7% in March from February to 99.5 points--below the 100-point level where optimists outnumber pessimists. It was the weakest reading in 10 months.

"The initial declines in December-January looked to be mainly the unwinding of the election-related sentiment boost," Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said. "More recent falls though have had a very clear theme centering on a sharp loss of confidence in the economic outlook and escalating job-loss fears."

Asian equity indices and copper prices were lower during the session--weighing down the Aussie dollar. Softness in regional markets reflect "fear among investors which may be stemming from ongoing concerns over Chinese economic growth," FXCM market analyst David de Ferranti said.

Traders appear "disposed to selling the Australian dollar when they can" because of the uncertain backdrop of Australia's biggest trading partner China, Westpac currency strategist Sean Callow said.

"It is hard to ignore some of the signals coming out of China," Mr. Callow added pointing to a large fall in the price of copper this week.

London Metal Exchange copper fell 2.5% on Tuesday and CME futures fell 2.7% to US$2.95--after hitting their lowest since 2010--to be down about 13% year to date.

Employment data for February on Thursday will be critical in shaping the Australian dollar's near-term direction, traders said.

Recent data have shown little job creation in the economy--raising questions about the pace of growth and businesses' confidence to hire.

With unemployment rising to 6% in January--its highest in more than a decade--the Reserve Bank of Australia will be reluctant to raise interest rates from their current record low of 2.5%.

"Data this week generally have been disappointing after last week's run of stronger-than-expected readings on the economy," Citigroup chief economist Paul Brennan said.

"This suggests the economy remains mixed with concerns about job security rising further in March," Mr. Brennan said.

GVI Forex Blog 05:01 GMT March 12, 2014 Reply   
- (JP) JAPAN FEB DOMESTIC CGPI M/M: -0.2% (first decline in 4 months) V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.8% (8-month low) V 2.1%E >- (JP) JAPAN Q1 BSI LARGE ALL INDUSTRY Q/Q: 12.7 V 8.3 PRIOR; BSI LARGE MANUFACTURING Q

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Nikkei slumps as markets question more BOJ easing; Shanghai Copper opens limit down - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:26 GMT March 12, 2014 Reply   
This is another day when the ghost of the Chinese economic

Morning Briefing : 12-Mar-2014 -0325 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:41 GMT March 12, 2014
AceTrader Mar 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

12 Mar 2014 02:27GMT

USD/JPY - 103.02
Despite the greenback's brief rebound from 102.85 in NY afternoon to 103.04 near NY close, renewed selling there pressured the pair lower n price fell below yesterday's low at 102.84 to 102.79 ahead of Asian open. Dollar found support there, which also happens to be the 38.2% are of recent rise from 101.20 to 103.77, and staged a short-covering recovery to 103.07 in Tokyo morning.

00:30GMT
AUD/USD - 0.8951...Australia Jan Home Loans MoM came in unchanged at 0.0%, lower than the expectation of 0.5%

Syd 02:22 GMT March 12, 2014
China's Mounting Vulnerabilities
Reply   

A series of dramatic episodes over the past few days, most recently the disappearance of a jetliner packed with Chinese passengers, reveals a China grappling to get control of its security challenges.
Up Next

LINK

Syd 02:18 GMT March 12, 2014
AUD
Reply   
SYDNEY--The number of Australian home-loan approvals was unchanged in January, while property investment cooled after a recent burst of activity.

Economists surveyed ahead of the announcement had expected no change. The value of loans for investment housing fell 3.3% in January from a month earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.

Syd 02:16 GMT March 12, 2014
Latest on missing jet: Terrorism cannot be ruled out, says CIA
Reply   
Terrorism cannot be ruled out, CIA director says

The director of the Central Intelligence Agency said on Tuesday intelligence officials could not rule out terrorism as a factor in the disappearance of a Malaysian Airlines plane. “You cannot discount any theory, “ CIA Director John Brennan said during rare public comments in Washington. The head of international police agency Interpol said on Tuesday he did not believe the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines plane at the weekend was a terrorist incident. Brennan, asked about the plane at a Council on Foreign Relations event, said terrorism could not yet be ruled out.

LINK

Syd 02:11 GMT March 12, 2014
DJ AUD/NZD May Fall to 1.0484, 1.0421 Near Term
Reply   
The Aussie dollar hit its weakest in six weeks against its New Zealand counterpart Tuesday after a survey showed Australian business conditions fell sharply in February and as concerns prevailed over weaker demand from China. Technical charts suggest the Aussie could fall further in the near term to NZ$1.0484, and possibly to NZ$1.0421.

The Australian currency slipped Tuesday to NZ$1.0572, its lowest mark since Jan. 29, after the National Australia Bank reported its business-conditions index fell to zero in February from five in January.

The Aussie/Kiwi cross has weakened since Monday after Chinese data released over the weekend showed an unexpected 18.1% drop in exports in February from a year ago which resulted in a monthly trade deficit of $22.98 billion, raising the specter of falling demand from Australia's biggest export market.

Negative sentiment for the Aussie was exacerbated this morning after a Westpac Banking Corp/Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment fell 0.7% in March from February to 99.5 points, below the 100-point level that means optimists outnumber pessimists.

Meanwhile, demand for the Kiwi is buoyant ahead of Thursday's Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision. The RBNZ is widely expected to raise its official cash rate to 2.75% from 2.5%--the level it has been at since March 2011.

The short-term technical outlook for the Aussie/Kiwi cross is negative.

The daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence and slow stochastic indicators are bearish, while the five- and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Also, the rate-of-change momentum indicator is falling in negative territory.

Rallies in spot AUD/NZD would be opportunities to accumulate shorts for a near-term test of support at 1.0484, the Jan. 24 bottom. A drop below 1.0484 would open the way down to 1.0421--the Dec. 5, 2005 trough.

However, the anticipated near-term Aussie/Kiwi decline would be deferred on a global daily close above 1.0759, Friday's reaction high.

At 0156 GMT Wednesday, the Aussie was quoted at NZ$1.0585 in the interbank spot AUD/NZD market.

Write to Jerry Tan at [email protected]

(Jerry Tan is a regional technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires, Asia Pacific. He has been contributing technical analysis, commentary and intelligence on currency markets to Newswires since February 2006. Before this, Jerry spent 15 years as a senior interbank forex market maker and bank proprietary trader; and 5 years as technical analyst in a brokerage firm.)

This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.

HK [email protected] 01:49 GMT March 12, 2014
YEN
Reply   


Is not responding well to S.Mkts decline and China situation.

Maybe late ignition is possible:)

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:36 GMT March 12, 2014
AceTrader March 12: U.S. dollar retreats versus Japanese yen on renewed risk aversion
Reply   
Market Review - 11/03/2014 21:12GMT

U.S. dollar retreats versus Japanese yen on renewed risk aversion

U.S. dollar remained little changed against the euro and British pound on Tuesday and moved sideways versus the yen in light trade after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold and gave no sign that further easing is on the way. However, it later retreated against the Japanese yen on renewed risk aversion due to the weakness in U.S. equities. U.S. Dow Jones index closed down by 67 points to 16351.

The Bank of Japan maintained its pledge to expand the monetary base at a pace of 60 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen per year. The central bank also kept the view that economic growth and inflation are proceeding in line with forecasts.

BoJ's Governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke in press conference after rate decision and said 'sales tax hike unlikely to cause 1997-style recession; economy near full employment, pushing up wages, prices; no change in my view on price outlook; capex to continue to rise moderately as trend; positive economic cycle intact due to firm domestic demand; Japan economy to grow above potential rate as trend in fiscal year 2014 and 2015; core CPI likely to hit 2% around early 2015; Japan economy on steady track towards 2% price goal.'

During the day, although euro retreated after meeting renewed selling at 1.3879 in Australia and dropped to a session low of 1.3834 in European morning due to comments from European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio who said that markets had missed some parts of its message on forward guidance last week. Short-covering lifted price from there and price later rebounded to 1.3875 in New York morning before easing.

ECB's Vice President Vitor Constancio said 'policy stance does not mean we are on hold in terms policy regardless of development of situation; forward guidance was made more precise on March 6 in relation to slack in economy; we have tools on the table, including rate cuts or QE; we are on hold in terms of policy regardless of the developments of the situation.'

Versus the Japanese yen, dollar moved in a narrow range on Tuesday due to thin market condition, despite 1-tick rise above Monday's high of 103.41 to 103.42 in Asia, price traded sideways in Europe and then dropped to 103.03 in New York morning. Meanwhile, euro and sterling weakened from 143.44 to 142.84 and from 172.11 to 171.37 before stabilising as market sentiment remained fragile.

Cable retreated after a brief jump to 1.6653 shortly after European open and dropped below Monday's low at 1.6622 after data showed that U.K. manufacturing output rose more than expected in January, but bad weather hampered the broader measure of industrial output. Later, price fell to a session low of 1.6596 after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney indicated that there is leeway for the bank to leave rates on hold for longer before short-covering lifted price to 1.6647 in New York morning.

According to the Office for National Statistics, U.K. manufacturing production rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for a 0.3% gain, while December's figure was revised up to a 0.4% increase from a previously reported gain of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, manufacturing production rose 3.3%, up from 1.4% in December. A separate report showed U.K. industrial output rose 0.1% in January, slowing sharply after a 0.5% increase in December and was up 2.9% from a year earlier.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Tuesday during testimony on the inflation outlook to parliament's Treasury Select Committee that there was a range of views among the bank’s monetary policy committee members on the amount of spare capacity in the U.K. economy. He also said it was not unreasonable to think that interest rates may rise to 2.0% to 2.5% over the next three years. Carney also reiterated that when rate increases do come they will be gradual.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Australia consumer confidence, home loans, Japan tertiary industry index, BSI large all industry, BSI large manufacturing, domestic CGPI, consumer confidence, EU industrial production.

Syd sf 01:03 GMT March 12, 2014
China
Reply   
China shows signs of worrying about economy

announces they may lower banks reserve requirement

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:42 GMT March 12, 2014
Is Trading Gambling?
Reply   
My article on this subject is suggested reading as it can make a difference in your trading

Is Trading Gambling?

Syd sf 00:38 GMT March 12, 2014
Japan
Reply   
Japanese Govt Official makes a comment :

that Japanese Govt could take action against firms that won't raise employee wages ... comes after Honda raises wages by about $22 a month.

HK [email protected] 00:37 GMT March 12, 2014
Business is business:‘Made In China:’ Chinese Raw Materials Found On U.S. B-1 Bomber, F-16 Jets
Reply   


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - After discovering China-made components in the F-35 fighter jet, a Pentagon investigation has uncovered Chinese materials in other major U.S. weaponry, including Boeing Co’s B-1B bomber and certain Lockheed Martin Corp F-16 fighters, the U.S. Defense Department said.

Titanium mined in China may also have been used to build part of a new Standard Missile-3 IIA being developed jointly by Raytheon Co and Japan, said a senior U.S. defense official, who said the incidents raised fresh concerns about lax controls by U.S. contractors.

U.S. law bans weapons makers from using raw materials from China and a number of other countries, amid concerns that reliance on foreign suppliers could leave the U.S. military vulnerable in some future conflict.

The Pentagon investigated the incidents in 2012 and 2013, and granted the waivers after concluding the non-compliant materials posed no risk, Defense Department spokeswoman Maureen Schumann told Reuters.

Frank Kendall, the Pentagon’s chief arms buyer, issued five such waivers after a change in U.S. law in 2009 expanded the restrictions on specialty metals to include high-performance magnets, Schumann said. The change affected a radar system built by Northrop Grumman Corp for the F-35, which uses a number of such magnets.

Reuters reported in January that the Pentagon permitted Lockheed to use Chinese magnets to keep the $392 billion F-35 program on track, even as U.S. officials were voicing concern about China’s espionage and military buildup.

The other, previously undisclosed waivers covered the B-1 bomber, F-16 fighter jets for Egypt equipped with a specific radar system, and the SM-3 IIA missile, Schumann said in response to a query from Reuters.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office is expected to brief Congress in April on its comprehensive audit of the issue of Chinese specialty metals on U.S. weapons systems.

tokyo ginko 00:01 GMT March 12, 2014
USD: Dow -1000 points coming, and USD likely declining disorderly.

sorry, please ignore the misleading Headline Subject.

 




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