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Forex Forum Archive for 03/14/2014

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dc CB 22:03 GMT March 14, 2014
Spring Global Upturn? 15 March 2014 Trading Themes

If the outlook is so rosey, then ask yourself:

Why is the US poking at the Ruskie Bear.

dc CB 21:58 GMT March 14, 2014
Spring Global Upturn? 15 March 2014 Trading Themes



it is becoming increasingly evident that the global economy is now on a solid improving path. We are not seeing a rapid recovery, but...

GVI Forex john 21:46 GMT March 14, 2014
Spring Global Upturn? 15 March 2014 Trading Themes
Reply   

FOMC Decision/Yellen Press Conference

If you look at the broad sweep of global data over the past few weeks, it is becoming increasingly evident that the global economy is now on a solid improving path. We are not seeing a rapid recovery, but...


Spring Global Upturn? 15 March 2014 Trading Themes

Mtl JP 21:11 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

what Kerry does probably depends to big degree on how much he is willing to digest orders from puppet master Nuland
- maybe he resigns ?
- maybe he causes a putch and orchestrates Nuland's delegation to some outpost equivalent to kamchatka ?
currently it seems likeKerry's situation remains fluid

Cambridge Joe 20:50 GMT March 14, 2014
USDCHF
Reply   
USDCHF looks like firming over the next few trading days...

So it looks to me..... ! GL

Paris ib 20:49 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

JP - yeah you too.

Kerry's opinion really is of no interest to me. I only care about what he does.

Mtl JP 20:45 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

I suggest that Kerry and the gang that claims to represent is of interest to you. They have the power to affect the profit/loss in your trading account or, and perhaps more importantly, your happiness in life.
As for me I have ordered an appointment in a newly opened "mancave" style barbershop: I want a hot cream shave, manicure and they have a stack of pristine condition old Playboy mags to "read" . Some old-style traditions that are making a comeback are hard to beat as little pleasures of life.
avagoodone !

Mtl JP 20:34 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

no trick. just killing time with trivia
-
re the $100 billion dump out of US treasuries
- if the russian really did that... he is even smarter than most gave him credit: first ones to take the money out.. gets full value

Paris ib 20:31 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

JP - just checked the bit you were actually replying to.... which is not what I originally thought. Ooops.

The media circus, the elections.... seriously do they want us to care? I just don't believe any of it any more. So they want to destabilise Russia and maybe China for nefarious reasons. Do they really care if we believe it's all for noble causes? I mean seriously. If the people in Crimea want to vote, that's fine by me. Kerry's opinion is of absolutely no interest to me at all.

Paris ib 20:26 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

JP - who knows? We got the data. Take or leave the conjecture. Is that some kind of trick question?

Mtl JP 20:12 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

ib 17:08 - the reasons may be varied ... tuff to make a judgement on that issue. For fun... have you played the game called Risk ?
There is a million dollar question in it. which country physically neighbored with Alaska

GVI Forex john 19:59 GMT March 14, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Chicago LS 19:34 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

Thanks red, missed some of the thread earlier

london red 18:36 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

jpy. wedge building on intraday hourly/15min. if theres enough to dip below 101.20 dont think anyone will stand in way and have 101 and then 100.75 for reaction lows. below there anythings game.
on the upside have 10165 10186 10235 10250 but thats probably for next week

london red 17:57 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

LS, would think so yes, just think source failed to provide full name in this case.

Paris ib 17:55 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

No worries red. May I suggest that this recent move away out of FED custody of 100 billion in Treasuries can be dismissed - to an extent - but can not be construed as USD positive. The best the spin doctors can offer is namby pamby ideas about why it doesn't matter.

I have to disagree. I think it matters. A lot.

Chicago LS 17:54 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

london red, is that piece by Marc Chandler?

Thanks much

london red 17:52 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

my apologies ib, didnt notice. busy in the field today and trading on the move.

london red 17:50 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

thanks nh, yes you are quite right. i say a third time at 101.20 and it'll be third time lucky for usd bears, otherwise drifts. but for me gap is inevitable as while the west discusses, putin does. the benefits of dictatorship i suppose.

Paris ib 17:49 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

red - honestly was that necessary? I posted a link to that article earlier. There was no need to post the entire thing. In any case it's all opinion, no facts.

london red 17:47 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

apologies as taken from my phone to email and cut and pasted here, so not pretty. Source MNI

US TSYS/RESEARCH: Part 1) Brown Brothers Harriman analysts address the outsized...
US TSYS/RESEARCH: Part 1) Brown Brothers Harriman analysts address the outsized $104.5 bn decline in the Fed Tsy holdings in its custody account for foreign central banks. "Custody holdings have trended lower this year, but the large, possibly record decline, is worth more attention than the market is giving it," they say. The drop "plays into market talk that China has stepped up the diversification of its reserves and could help explain the euro's persistent strength." This could be possible, but seems unlikely given that China has other pressing financial issues currently. Also, "some may try to link this to Russia's recent threat - this would reflect almost half of Russia's dollar reserves and would seem significant," they say. BBH reminds however that Russia's trade and FX policy is tied to the dollar. Russia "does not hold dollars as a favor to the US," but because it is in the country's best interest.
"If it is Russia, we wonder if would not be a sale of Treasuries as a transfer from the Fed's custodial account to commercial banks," the analysts say.

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

14-marca-2014 14:27:30

US TSYS/RESEARCH: Part 2) Brown Brothers Harriman's Marc Chandler notes also...
US TSYS/RESEARCH: Part 2) Brown Brothers Harriman's Marc Chandler notes also that the $104.5bn drop in weekly Fed custody holdings of Tsys by central took place in a week where there was not much change in interest rates (10-yr yields closed at 2.725% March 12 and 2.696% March 5). "...Regardless of who sold them and for what purposes, the point is that the trend decline in Treasuries being held for foreign accounts at the Federal Reserve has not coincided with higher US yields," he says. The $104.5bn decline, in the latest reporting period, "did not see Treasury yields rise, which is a testament to the breadth and depth of the market," he says. More importantly, "it also means that a foreign country's (such a Russia) ability to impact US policy by threatening to sell its Treasury holdings rings hollow," Chandler says.

Livingston nh 17:46 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

red - re:USD/JPY 101.20 -- looks to me on daily that 144ema (101.13) is the last ma - today's close around that level puts wkly close below 21wk ma w/ a lot of white space below to 55 ema (~98.40)

IMO - if it follows SPX we might get a spike below 100 today or Monday (??) - BUT yen trade = humility

Paris ib 17:46 GMT March 14, 2014
ib, Good news

red the thread regarding the exit from FED custody of 100 billion in U.S. Treasuries..... is here.

Paris ib 17:39 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

red you think you'd find someone in the U.S. who would write an article which suggests that real divestment from the U.S. is going on even or could go on? I don't think so.

The U.S. is dependent on foreign capital inflows. That's a fact. Any suggestion that those inflows could stop or - worse - reverse is dynamite. Should China and Russia choose to retaliate during current hostilities by repatriating funds - that would leave the U.S. in a very precarious position.

The removal of 100 billion in U.S. Treasuries from FED custody in one week - a record by the way - can not be so easily dismissed. No-one knows what happened exactly or why. You can make the case though that it is a negative for the U.S.

london red 17:26 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

russia invests in US bonds because its good business not because its doing a favour for the US. Good article by Brown Bros Harriman on subject on the wires today and on how Russia's actions make no difference.

GVI Forex john 17:14 GMT March 14, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are broadly mixed as traders await the Crimea Referendum over the weekend and the Russian response afterwards. The outcome of the vote is pre-ordained by the two choices presented.

Equities in the Far East ended the week lower. European shares are mixed to lower The peripheral European bond prices are mixed.

Paris ib 17:08 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

Joe I still don't get why they need to go through this whole charade: the media, the press conferences, the elections. It's all just a farce and less and less people pay any attention or participate. We just get with the shrapnel while they play their stupid game. Guaranteed what you end up with is more taxes, more surveillance, higher utility costs, less choice. It's grotesque.

Cambridge Joe 17:04 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

ib it's called consultation. They consult, find out what your view point is, and then do exactly what they want to anyway.

It help to create / maintain the illusion of choice.

Try working with or for a large corporation, when you hear the word 'consult' be afraid, or at least somewhat concerned !

Paris ib 17:02 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

They are red. What is not obvious is what the 'international community' which Kerry supposedly represents will do about it. Invade Crimea? Or merely support the team of Neo-Nazis who decide to invade Crimea? I'd guess at the second option.

london red 17:00 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

i would have thought putins view on that would be obvious.

Paris ib 16:58 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

Who knows? Gold? It's neutral, physical. European bonds? Their own bonds.... the options are endless.

Mtl JP 16:58 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

john 16:54 had u heeded my Mtl JP 16:01...

Paris ib 16:57 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

I could stand it if I thought they were even trying to tell the truth. But that's not the case. I do wonder why they bother though. I mean when push came to shove there was NO POPULAR support for the attack on Iraq and massive rallies against it and they went in anyway. So why are they bothering with the narrative? They didn't with Libya, just went in. I don't buy the idea that they need our consent. That's rubbish. Why continue with the farce? There is no democracy. We know that.

GVI Forex john 16:57 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next

Speculation is that it was the Russians who pulled out the $100bln for fear of sanctions. Is this where the EUR demand came from? Where else could they place it?

GVI Forex john 16:54 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

These guys wear me down with their endless meaningless words.

Paris ib 16:51 GMT March 14, 2014
FOMC Meeting Next
Reply   
The FOMC meeting coming up is the next focus. Tapering is expected to continue but who really cares if the FED buys USD 5 billion less in Treasuries per month or NOT. When you consider that 100 billion in Treasuries were taken out of FED custody in just one week?

Financial response in Russian markets is happening. It would be interesting to know who is behind those moves. Has the conflict ALREADY moved into the financial arena?

Paris ib 16:44 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

Russia will respect the outcome of the referendum.

GVI Forex john 16:43 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

All we will know new on Monday is Putin's immediate response to the Ukraine referendum. The outlook for the vote is not in doubt

HK [email protected] 16:42 GMT March 14, 2014
Probably this will be the more important news on Monday.



Probably it is the cause for gold sharp drop.

Talk Gravitational waves means strong Euro hehehe

The announcement will be made on Monday at 4pm GMT.

GVI Forex Blog 16:40 GMT March 14, 2014 Reply   
March 14, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 17. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Final HICP, US- Empire PMI, Industrial Production

GVI Forex Data Outlook for March 17, 2014

GVI Forex john 16:38 GMT March 14, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


March 14, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, March 17. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Final HICP, US- Empire PMI, Industrial Production

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: EZ- Final HICP.
  • North America: US- Empire PMI, TIC Flows, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.


HK [email protected] 16:35 GMT March 14, 2014
Probably this will be the more important news on Monday.
Reply   


Rumours have been rife in the physics community about an announcement due on Monday from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. If there is evidence for gravitational waves, it would be a landmark discovery that would change the face of cosmology and particle physics.

Gravitational waves are the last untested prediction of Albert Einstein's General Theory of Relativity.

LINK

london red 16:34 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

nh, trying to understand the thinking on usdjpy long over the weekend. the vote will take place and the result will be a landslide yes for joining russia. the majority there are russian speaking, have ties with russia or are indeed russian. there is no need to rig this one.
so is the usdjpy holding above 101.20 because it expects the illegal crimea parliament to not go ahead with the vote, or for russia to condemn it? (if so good luck with that) or is it being bid with the hope of a breakthrough in talks with russia (again good luck) or is it just following the s&p?
if we close at or above 101.20 then we will probably gap down to 100.75 on sunday night following the inevitable taking place of vote and result. unless i am missing something.

GVI Forex john 16:33 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

Kerry Starting

Mtl JP 16:31 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

Kerry probably waiting for instructions from his puppet master

Paris ib 16:30 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

JP - absolutely. And much more effective in my opinion. Never go to war on the battle ground of your enemy's choosing.

Paris ib 16:29 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

nh I believe they have loonies in charge in the Ukraine at the moment.

If I were looking to counter this move I would go the financial route no doubt. USD 100 billion is a substantial opening gambit.

Mtl JP 16:28 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

that - "if the response is financial" - would be preferable would it not ? at least and hopefully for the GV trading crowd

GVI Forex Blog 16:27 GMT March 14, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
• A Crimean referendum on Sunday risks escalating tensions and impacting energy markets

• Fed tapering policy on course, but possible adjustment to forward guidance

• UK Budget to avoid pre-election hype, delivering fiscally neutral, targeted measures

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - TENSIONS IN UKRAINE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SENTIMENT

Livingston nh 16:26 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

ib, this is plain vanilla stuff - don't get worked up by anything you read or hear -- Putin knows what he is going to do, US, EU, NATO know their roles - only one that can screw up the show is Ukraine if it ad-libs and moves off script

Paris ib 16:17 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

JP no idea about Martin Dempsey. What a weird situation. This referendum is going ahead and then what? Do we get an attack by the Neo-Nazis? There is talk that Blackwater is over in the Ukraine. There were Nato snipers there. Talk of Jihadis getting involved. Obviously there is a very concerted effort underway to create chaos in the Ukraine. So far Russia's response has been muted. Without a massive escalation that will continue so this might be a slow burn issue. Meanwhile it looks to me that what's going on in the Treasury market (even though it hasn't showed up in yields) may be a pre-emptive response. If so the Russian Chinese delegation may have just started to apply pressure to the U.S. pressure points. No doubt the U.S. would prefer a military conflict (that's what they are geared up for after all: war) but if the response is financial then this may not go the way the war mongering neo-cons would like.

Mtl JP 16:10 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

ib 15:59 can u find out what Martin Dempsey is doing atm ?
couple of days ago he suggested that "he's been talking to his military counterparts in Russia, but he's also sending a clear message to Ukraine and members of NATO that the U.S. military will respond militarily if necessary." which raises some questions seeing as Ukraine is not a NATO member and there not subject to article 5

Livingston nh 16:07 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

anybody remember Baker closed door last chance meeting w/ Iraq counterpart b4 Gulf War?? -- afternoon markets waited, hoped and then DOWN

These things never get resolved so ...

Mtl JP 16:01 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

john respectully suggest to set your price alarm for a breakout either way on one or two or three pairs of your riskoff choice representation and zzzz in the meantime IF you think Kerry may eventually be a market mover

Paris ib 15:59 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

The Russian has already spoken apparently. Says differences remain, they will respect the outcome of the referendum, concerned about security in the Ukraine, says Kerry did not threaten anything but that sanctions would be counter productive. That's what I heard so far.

GVI Forex john 15:58 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

No telling when they will start

Press Conference

GVI Forex john 15:56 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

still waiting for Kerry. Reporters have been sitting there for a couple of hours now. Exciting job?

Paris ib 15:46 GMT March 14, 2014
ib, Good news

Apparently others suggest that the Chinese are unloading Treasuries (an article in the FT is suggesting as much). Though the abrupt selling reported does suggest that someone is getting ready for an escalation in tensions, sanctions etc.

Either way we are not talking about a major shift into USDs.

FT Article

GVI Forex Blog 15:39 GMT March 14, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
It was another weak session in Asia and Europe as traders positioned themselves conservatively due to the crisis in Ukraine and issues in China. US markets have been choppy since the open.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: More Jitters on China and Ukraine

Amman wfakhoury 15:23 GMT March 14, 2014
GOLD 1381
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 14:45 GMT March 12, 2014
GBPUSD 16596: Reply
Chennai AMI 14:25 GMT 03/12/2014
wfakhoury : hello sir, your comment on gold please.

GOLD 1381 confirmed and will be reached ...any decline below 1365.40 will return to it.
------------------------
1381 reached

Amman wfakhoury 15:20 GMT March 14, 2014
EURUSD 13891 confirmed

Amman wfakhoury 09:24 GMT 03/14/2014
Amman wfakhoury 08:47 GMT 03/14/2014
13891 confirmed and will be reached ..decline below 13860 will return to it.

-------------------------
EURUSD expected to reach 13930 area ...first I confirmed 13891 then I may confirm 13930.
_______________________________-
13930 reached

Paris ib 15:13 GMT March 14, 2014
ib, Good news

Some in the U.S. would assure us that this is not actual selling of U.S. Treasuries just a transfer from the custody of the FED. Ahead of potential sanctions and so on and so forth.

After all who can forget what happened to the Iranians: assets frozen for decades. Holding stuff in the U.S. is fraught with all sorts of potential 'issues'.

Exit from Treasuries?

Paris ib 15:00 GMT March 14, 2014
ib, Good news

I just saw this on another site:

For the week ended March 12, US Treasurys held in custody by the Fed dropped to $2.855 trillion: a drop of $104.5 billion.

This was the biggest drop of Treasurys held by the Fed on record.

Is that true?

If it is TIC data is going to be really bad. We only have TIC data to December. The first quarter of this year should be really interesting if that is the case. Can someone confirm?

Paris ib 14:27 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

Now it's a joint U.S. - Russia press briefing?

Paris ib 14:25 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

The vote goes ahead for sure. Where that leaves Kerry I'm not sure. Is he going to make some goodwill trips to the Ukraine and shake hands with the Neo-Nazis who staged the recent coup? That would be a good look. Mind you, its been done before.

Rumsfeld and Saddam

Paris ib 14:18 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

Thanks John

Mtl JP 14:17 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

john watch and see how the MSM will fawn over every single word of BS he utters
-
probably better to watch usdyen, Gold, eurchf

Paris ib 14:16 GMT March 14, 2014
ib, Good news

Thanks nh. The data continues to confirm the trend. I'm not sure making a big deal in the Ukraine is likely to reverse that unfortunate exodus of capital from U.S. Treasuries. The established order is under some pressure.

GVI Forex john 14:13 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

Kerry

Live Press Conference

Livingston nh 14:12 GMT March 14, 2014
ib, Good news

Securities held in custody for foreign official and
international accounts

Marketable U.S. Treasury securities (1) 2,921,999 - 46,596 - 34,028 2,855,397

Last wks amout 2,959 bio = down 104 bio

GVI Forex john 14:12 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

I haven't found a link in the State Department Website

Paris ib 14:11 GMT March 14, 2014
Crimea Referendum Ballot Choice

Next they bomb Scotland.

Paris ib 14:09 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing

His Russian counterpart will also make a statement. Afterwards.

Kerry

Paris ib 14:07 GMT March 14, 2014
Kerry's Press Briefing
Reply   
Is there a link?

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT March 14, 2014
Preliminary March 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index

Note both charts have leveled out and could be turning lower. I like watching the various sentiment indicators but feel they are not particularly strong predictors of anything.

prague mark 14:04 GMT March 14, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

EUR/USD This is the top
prague mark 11:45 GMT 03/13/2014
USA ZEUS 09:59 GMT 03/13/2014

dont forget to note for other traders that your SL is 2500 pips

//////////////////////

folks do your own research

GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT March 14, 2014
Preliminary March 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index



University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment. Preliminary March Michigan Survey weaker than expected. Data subject to revision in about two weeks.


Mtl JP 13:58 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

nh I am trying to AFFECT the S&P not follow it
(plz pardon my delusional ego :) )

Livingston nh 13:55 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

JP - if you are following S&P - should be some selling ~1852 / maybe test 1830 (40 dma, low from last Monday's UKR crisis, etc)

GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT March 14, 2014
Preliminary March 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
79.9 vs. 82.00 exp. vs. 81.6 prev


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT March 14, 2014
Preliminary March 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
79.9 vs. 82.00 exp. vs. 81.6 prev


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Paris ib 13:52 GMT March 14, 2014
ib, Good news

nh - I did miss this. What's the news exactly?

Mtl JP 13:51 GMT March 14, 2014
Crimea Referendum Ballot Choice

those that Kerry represents are probably more p!ssed off that they are not the ones counting the vote
(matters not that they vote or how they vote. matters who counts the vote - old stalin rule)

Mtl JP 13:47 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

looks like risk off is for good part digested: usdyen 101.20 held and is bouncing up now (101.45-ish as I type)

Paris ib 13:43 GMT March 14, 2014
Crimea Referendum Ballot Choice

JP the whole thing is a bit of a laugh. The U.S. Is a laughing stock. The EU is no better. Kerry (the zombie known as lurch) actually referred to Rocky V (something no sentient being even bothered watching) in a recent tirade. So in addition to being insane, broke and desperate they are also demonstrating a total absence of cultural reference points. Vote and we bomb you. Please. Go f..k yourselves.

Livingston nh 13:39 GMT March 14, 2014
ib, Good news
Reply   
ib - in case you missed it -last night's Fed release showed that there was over wkly 100 bio reduction in Fed foreign official custodial holdings - now y/y holdings have declined // interest rates fell over the past wk

Mtl JP 13:36 GMT March 14, 2014
Crimea Referendum Ballot Choice

ib - little morning humor 4 u...
Lurch Kerry gives Russia "Until Monday to reverse course."
Or what?
Retort: Did he specify which Monday ?

Paris ib 13:33 GMT March 14, 2014
Crimea Referendum Ballot Choice

Don't tell me they are actually having a VOTE in Crimea. Can't have that. Best u guys get your B52s out. This kind of outrage needs to be stopped. Unless of course they do hanging chads.

Mtl JP 13:12 GMT March 14, 2014
Perfect example of ignorant punditry
Reply   
and dangers of reading them and getting infected by them:

Euro’s relentless rise confounds traders - Ralph Atkins and Delphine Strauss in FT
-
Bottom Line
- there is a fundamental and deep difference between policy-makers, investors, traders and pundits. I contend that all - except traders - are possibly / probably confused.

Mtl JP 12:53 GMT March 14, 2014
GBP/USD The lesson

IF you are a gbp bull you would not want to see priceaction go south of the 50 dma.... at 1.6541

Syd sf 12:46 GMT March 14, 2014
Oil

it just closed the long trade .. sq at these prices.

Mtl JP 12:39 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

that is assuming that you would prefer magnitude and volatility , not a flat line price action.

Mtl JP 12:32 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Gold... at new HoD

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT March 14, 2014
February 2014 U.S. PPI
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Headline: -0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% (r. ) prev.
Core: -0.20% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% (r. ) prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:29 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

JM if you were to pick one pony to play, which would you prefer:
usdyen or eurchf or ____ ? tia

NY JM 12:25 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Beware if you have a USDJPY stop over the weekend.

Mtl JP 12:24 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

usdyen 101.20 on radar now;
congestion support around 100.75

Mtl JP 12:19 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

when I looked a while ago futures were pointing slightly UP

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:17 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

I cover USDJPY in my daily forex trading outlook video posted on GVIForex. Posting it here so you can see where key levels lie.



Video Market Update

Run for cover but damage not yet fatal. Friday hard hat day.

GVI Forex john 12:13 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Depends on stocks. Tell be where the S&P is headed and the answer is clear. What do you think?

Mtl JP 12:10 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

what are the odds of usdyen to 100.00 ?

GVI Forex john 12:10 GMT March 14, 2014
Crimea Referendum Ballot Choice
Reply   
Crimea Referendum

Voters among the two million population must choose either:

1) Direct union with Moscow

or

2) Restoring an old constitution that made Crimea sovereign with ties to Ukraine.

Crucially there appears to be no option for Crimea to remain as part of Ukraine.

GVI Forex john 12:08 GMT March 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today
Reply   
I not expecting much today. Yesterday should have been the major risk off day into the Ukraine vote this weekend. the 10-yr last was 2.636% -1.4bp. Keep an eye on the 10-yr and equities again today. I would expect markets to thin early today, so beware of possible late session volatility.

Amman wfakhoury 12:02 GMT March 14, 2014
GBPUSD 16560 confirmed
Reply   
16560 confirmed , will be reached ...any rise above 16594 will return to it.

Livingston nh 11:49 GMT March 14, 2014
Ukraine is not that big issue, as some try to magnify.

w/o political comment - situation in Ukraine is a political crisis - it is not yet a military crisis or an economic crisis -- it can probably spawn an economic crisis at some point (IMF, despite the bending of its rules, can't offer much assistance and is never quick) -- each of the three types of crisis can feed each other or get resolved // for our purposes in the markets the economic crisis is the one that can screw things up the most because we are guessing where the fallout lands

Livingston nh 11:29 GMT March 14, 2014
GBP/USD The lesson

RF -- EUR/GBP is up against some longer term MAs in the .8370 -.8380 range on daily and wkly charts - BoE likely to hike before ECB -- where do you think Carney's comfort zone is on EUR/GBP if cable goes to 1.70?

Mtl JP 11:12 GMT March 14, 2014
GBP/USD The lesson

and allow for 1.6480

bali sja 10:34 GMT March 14, 2014
GBP/USD The lesson

well said [email protected], i second that 1.70 target

GVI Forex Blog 10:12 GMT March 14, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Risk aversion sentiment remains prevalent as themes of China slowdown and Ukraine-Russia standoff sending more investors to the sidelines.

(EU) TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: China slowdown concerns and Sunday vote in Crimea keep risk aversion sentiment strong

Syd sf 10:03 GMT March 14, 2014
Oil

I don't know what it sees .. the chart looks heavy to me - the only thing is it maybe looking for a bounce up to 98.73/76 area MA point .. anyways BOL as always.

.. I did try Nat Gas .. but I couldn't develop anything that would make any money so far.

HK [email protected] 09:59 GMT March 14, 2014
GBP/USD The lesson
Reply   


Even worse than expected numbers didn't suppress it, no long squeeze came out to be a success the last few days.

CONCLUSION: Many buyers(big) prefer GBP on the USD, and bad news do not suppress, so we may have bottomed.

1.69/70 range likely will reached within days.

Cambridge Joe 09:58 GMT March 14, 2014
Oil

thks sf.

Nat gas firming 15:00 latest.... according to this.. !

Oil ... 12:15 GMT should see it on track lower.... that's what I have..

GL

Syd sf 09:48 GMT March 14, 2014
Oil

my autotrader which has been doing very well in Oil has turned long 98.30 .. I have no personal idea/view of the market - but its been doing very well this week.

Amman wfakhoury 09:37 GMT March 14, 2014
EURUSD

if not ..will return to 13855

bali sja 09:36 GMT March 14, 2014
EURUSD

yes kuues, after the usual usd cheerleading of imminent crash in euro, what happens next after a few pips pullback is euro goes back to the high and even exceeding it...

Amman wfakhoury 09:36 GMT March 14, 2014
EURUSD

No..that depeneds on breaking 13891

Tartu kuues 09:34 GMT March 14, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
...in other words EUR is bull...

Amman wfakhoury 09:34 GMT March 14, 2014
EURUSD 13891 confirmed

Amman wfakhoury 09:24 GMT 03/14/2014
Amman wfakhoury 08:47 GMT 03/14/2014
13891 confirmed and will be reached ..decline below 13860 will return to it.

-------------------------
EURUSD expected to reach 13930 area ...first I confirmed 13891 then I may confirm 13930.
------------------------
13891 reached

GVI Forex john 09:32 GMT March 14, 2014
January 2014 U.K. Trade GBP (bn)
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Total Trade: -9.70 vs. -8.600 exp. vs. -7.710 prev.
non-EU: -4.00 vs. -2.60 exp. vs. -2.20 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Amman wfakhoury 09:24 GMT March 14, 2014
EURUSD 13891 confirmed

Amman wfakhoury 08:47 GMT 03/14/2014
13891 confirmed and will be reached ..decline below 13860 will return to it.

-------------------------
EURUSD expected to reach 13930 area ...first I confirmed 13891 then I may confirm 13930.

Cambridge Joe 09:23 GMT March 14, 2014
Oil

USDX firms into and thru NY IMO. !

Cambridge Joe 09:22 GMT March 14, 2014
Oil

Very possibly John. However, I have no idea how the Saudis and other Oil people will like to see an oil 'crash'. ...

I limit myself to techs, momentum and time..... ! :-)

GVI Forex john 09:15 GMT March 14, 2014
Oil

Joe- Fears U.S. might could "dump" supplies to punish Putin if he misbehaves?

GVI Forex Blog 08:59 GMT March 14, 2014
"Risk-off" Trade Heading into Crimea Vote on Weekend
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- PPI, Univ of Michigan Survey

Today is looking like another "risk off" session after a difficult day yesterday. Our best guess is that trading will wind down early today ahead of the Ukraine vote.

"Risk-off" Trade Heading into Crimea Vote on Weekend

Cambridge Joe 08:57 GMT March 14, 2014
Oil
Reply   
Oil softening here IMO.

It didn't take off like I thought it would over the last 24 hrs....

IMO. GL

Amman wfakhoury 08:47 GMT March 14, 2014
EURUSD 13891 confirmed
Reply   
13891 confirmed and will be reached ..decline below 13860 will return to it.




GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:45 GMT March 14, 2014
Why on Earth Is the EURUSD so Strong?
Reply   
Worth reading (my article)

Why on Earth Is the EURUSD so Strong?

london red 08:44 GMT March 14, 2014
eurgbp
Reply   
eurgbp, knocking on 8350, main hurdle head of another run towards 8390. downside support remains at 8333 (1.20) you feel must hold today otherwise retreat to 8288/75 on cards early next week.
situation bullish while above 8250.

london red 08:41 GMT March 14, 2014
-

ok no prob

GVI Forex john 08:40 GMT March 14, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, financial markets are in a risk-off posture ahead of the Crimea referendum this weekend. The Ukraine Prime Minister said the outcome is a fait accompli. Prices in prime fixed income markets are mixed to higher.

European equities are weaker. Far East equities ended lower. U.s. S&P futures are higher at this hour. The peripheral European bond prices are mostly up.

Kaunas DP 08:36 GMT March 14, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

eur/usd 1.3760 confirmed... today close or Sunday/Monday after gap down

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:24 GMT March 14, 2014
-

Red can you add a subject name rather than - as the subject. TIA

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:11 GMT March 14, 2014
AceTrader March 14: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic – USD/IDR
Reply   
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11410
14 Mar 2014 05:10GMT

Wednesday's rebound to 11465 suggests choppy trading
Monday's 4-month low of 11345 would continue and marginal
gain from here can't be ruled out before another fall.

Exit previous short at 11450 as only below 11345
revives bearishness for weakness to 11300.

bali sja 08:00 GMT March 14, 2014
Ukraine is not that big issue, as some try to magnify.

Paris ib, yes US indeed is digging its own graveyard, can't be long before this whole madness crumbles, but again human's stupidity is boundless even if they have been shown their mistakes some are just dumb enough to keep ignoring and repeating them

london red 07:55 GMT March 14, 2014
-
Reply   
big multi bln yen expiries at 102 at the cut today, may draw, esp if 86 is overcome (fib) which has capped overnight.
cable big options at 1.66 may draw, some lower at 16570 and 16550.
after cut might be free of shackles for change in direction for many pairs

Paris ib 07:53 GMT March 14, 2014
Ukraine is not that big issue, as some try to magnify.

bali sja... the United States is seeking a diversion. Trying to put off the evil day. It's a bit sad and a bit ironic. The U.S. play book in the South Pacific and with emerging nations everywhere is to offer a nice fat loan (for say an electric power station which then turns out to be way too big for the nation in question) and then once the nation in question is drowning in debt to squeeze like h.ell. Talk about getting hoist by your own petard. The U.S. is in debt to foreign creditors and needs to keep MORE money coming in just to stay afloat. They have naval bases everywhere, wars everywhere and a military machine which has become the centre of the economy. And this was supposed to work? I'm not sure if it's madness, hubris or just being really dumb. Oh wait, it's an interesting combination of all three. ;-)

Chalmers Johnson explains

GVI Forex Blog 07:33 GMT March 14, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
- (SG) SINGAPORE Q4 FINAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 1.8% V 1.8% PRELIM - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB NON-RESIDENT BOND HOLDINGS: 63.3% V 63.7% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB BUSINESS MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.2 V 56.2 PR

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Nikkei down 3% as geopolitical jitters and China growth concerns remain in the spotlight - Source TradeTheNews.com

HK [email protected] 06:37 GMT March 14, 2014
GBP
Reply   


bali sja.

I have 3 targets based on different patterns and calcu. and all falling between 1.67 to 1.70.

Must be something very bad to negate it.
But nations diversifying away from the USD itself is very supportive.

bali sja 06:26 GMT March 14, 2014
Ukraine is not that big issue, as some try to magnify.

amazing, just when you think GWB was a stupid US president, Obama is even worse

bali sja 06:23 GMT March 14, 2014
Ukraine is not that big issue, as some try to magnify.

cant disagree with you [email protected], it has long been my play with long gbp as "safe haven"
if Merkel stupidly get into US ploy then pound will benefit the most

HK [email protected] 06:12 GMT March 14, 2014
Ukraine is not that big issue, as some try to magnify.



This time it is at least Russia, China, India and I believe most nations despise the US policy. It will just not work!!!

Also Mr. Zuckerberg from facebook went banana with O. the spy:) All are disgusted, hehe

Looks like the US is running like a black mafia from Chicago.

As a matter of keep away from EU a bit, I will consider the CHF and the GBP more safe.

Regarding the CHF, one has to be careful with the promise of the SNB to interevene in case of massive influx of money into the CHF.

GBP, shows long period of accumulation(will not discount China buying), so patient will pay.

HK [email protected] 05:58 GMT March 14, 2014
Buy GBP at 1.6550 if seen for 1.69/70 target
Reply   
/

bali sja 05:33 GMT March 14, 2014
Ukraine is not that big issue, as some try to magnify.

Russia is not interested in invading the whole Ukraine. They are just seeing Crimea as geographically strategic to whatever they think is important. US on the other hand is trying to blow this out of proportion by adding spices and herbs everywhere and get everyone behind them to use it as a reason to start another war with Russia just like they did with Iraq.

Syd sf 05:10 GMT March 14, 2014
Nikkei

the Nikkei has broken down through 14300 .. around 14250 now - and subsequently pressuring the Yen Crosses.

Syd sf 05:08 GMT March 14, 2014
Ukraine is not that big issue, as some try to magnify.

from what I read - there are 2 roads into Crimea

with the russians dug in on one end and the Ukrainians on the other .. the Ukrainians say they have more than enough men to stop a Russian Invasion.

also Crimea relies on electricity/water from the North - so this will be cut off if they go ahead with the Vote.

This could get ugly one way or the other.

But if this is important to Global Markets - well maybe not so much -- but that doesn't mean a couple of days of liquidation will not be painful to some people.

HK [email protected] 04:45 GMT March 14, 2014
Ukraine is not that big issue, as some try to magnify.
Reply   


Forget about war, people are going to vote in a referendum; Totally democratic and legal process.
US sanctions sucks; Russia China and India already formed a battery against US sanctions, which may backfire bad on the US economy even more.

A big opposition from inside the US is building against the US policy in Ukr.

Mr. O. wants to create troubles, but possibly he will not succeed.
I wonder whose interests does he represent this time.

The only actively drumming up the winds of war are the Ukrainians themselves willing to drag the whole world into a fight.

So nothing will come out of it.
.........................

................
Outraged Mr. Zuker from facebook called Obama, telling O. that with his stupid NSA are destroying his business and the internet as a whole.

People are fleeing the internet and facebook too.

GVI Forex Blog 03:31 GMT March 14, 2014 Reply   
The global markets are undergoing a bout of profit taking

Morning Briefing : 14-Mar-2014 -0330 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:15 GMT March 14, 2014
AceTrader March 14: Euro falls sharply from a fresh 2-1/4 year peak on increased Ukraine worries and
Reply   

Market Review - 13/03/2014 23:05GMT

Euro falls sharply from a fresh 2-1/4 year peak on increased Ukraine worries and ECB dovish remarks

The single currency rose to a fresh 2-1/4 year high at 1.3966 against the dollar on Thursday as diminished expectations on more easing by the European Central Bank bolstered demand for the euro.
However, gain was capped as investors remained wary due to the escalating tensions between Russia and the West ahead of Sunday's referendum in Ukraine's Crimea region, now controlled by pro-Russian forces.

During the day, despite euro's sideways trading in Thursday's Asian session after rallying to 1.3915 in previous session, this renewed buying at 1.3843 lifted price higher to a fresh 2-1/4 year peak at 1.3966 in European morning.
However dollar's broad-based rebound due to upbeat U.S. economic reports (retail sales and initial jobless claims) knocked price down to 1.3937 in New York morning.
Later, the single currency tumbled to 1.3846 due to active cross-selling in euro against the Japanese yen together with the sell-off in global stock markets on increased Ukraine worries, and with the dovish remarks from ECB's president Draghi. Dow Jones index closed down by 231 points to 16109.

ECB President Mario Draghi said that the European Central Bank has been preparing additional policy steps to guard against deflation taking hold in the euro zone as the strong euro weighs on prices

U.S. Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose 0.3% in February, ending two months of declines and better than market's expectation for an increase of 0.2%.
Meanwhile, core retail sales which exclude automobile sales, rose 0.3% last month, ahead of expectations for a 0.1% rise. A separate report from Department of Labor showed that the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to a three month low of 315,000 last week, from the previous week's revised total of 324,000.

Cable found support at 1.6607 in Asia and price started to rise in tandem with euro during Tokyo afternoon. Price ratcheted higher to 1.6686 in European morning and then further to 1.6719 ahead of New York open before easing in New York morning. Later, cable nose-dived to 1.6607 due to dollar's broad-based rebound on safe-haven demand.

Versus the Japanese yen, dollar fell below Wednesday's low at 102.55 to 102.41 in Asia as lackluster data from China fuelled risk aversion and despite a brief rebound to 102.80 in New York morning after stronger-than-expected data on U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims, renewed risk aversion due to the sharp sell-off in global stock markets triggered another round of cross-buying in yen and U.S. dollar tumbled to as low as 101.54 in late New York before recovering.

Chinese industrial production rose 8.6% in the first two months of 2014, according to data released on Thursday, missing market expectations for an increase of 9.5%, while Chinese retail sales rose by a smaller than forecast 11.8% in the same period.

In other news, ECB's Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said 'we have no Fx target; but euro appreciation can influence inflation outlook, which mean that we have to take this into account for monetary policy.
Watching German house price developments very closely, there is no systemic risk so far, and seeing normalization in money markets in recent months.
we have policy instrument at our disposal if needed to deal with low inflation, there is not much room let for further conventional measures, the need to discuss non-conventional measures together with the legal questions around these.'

Data to be released on Friday:

New Zealand manufacturing PMI, BoJ Feb meeting minutes, Japan industrial production, capacity utilization, Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. trade balance, U.S. PPI and University of Michigan consumer confidence.

Syd sf 01:36 GMT March 14, 2014
China
Reply   
China announces banks will reduce loans to Companies Dealing in Commodities by 20% .. the story goes onto Commentary saying will lead to more defaults.

you gotta take this stuff with a grain of salt .. these China things are all translations and things are changing there daily.

GVI Forex Blog 00:26 GMT March 14, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Yen and Swiss franc benefits from safety flows

* Euro further weighed by comments from ECB's Draghi

* Focus back on Ukraine as Crimea referendum looms

FOREX NEWS - Yen and Swiss franc in demand as risk aversion mounts

Syd sf 00:19 GMT March 14, 2014
Nikkei
Reply   
the high was around 15400 .. we are trading 14400 here now

we had seen heavy selling the last 2 days - so today we probably stick to 14300/14550 .. and then its up to NYK to decipher what Ukraine and China really mean.

 




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