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Forex Forum Archive for 03/19/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd sf 23:57 GMT March 19, 2014
Asia
Reply   
I tend to think if we see aud$ and $cad continue the $ (+) sentiment then later we see the eur and gbp decline some more.

Gold is not helping aud or cad dropping another $5.

If Yellen were to correct her thought process as you guys talked about -- > then that changes things again .. but also her credibility will be in question .. I suspect she just shuts up and let the market figure out there is 2 way risk these days .. so price accordingly.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:20 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

What spooked the market was the shift in expectations (as John pointed out)

so not only did we not get the expected shift lower from 75bp median closer to 50bp end of 2015 target, we got a shift higher in the median from 75bps up to 1.00% at the end of 2015.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:08 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

If she didn't mean it you will see damage control in the coming days. If not, she meant it.

london red 22:36 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

"appears to be" is the phrase in question. she said it but did she mean to say it and did she mean to say it and have the market react the way it did. does she regret it/would she say it a second time?
assumption is the mother all f ups as they say. for now we are all assuming, next few days will give us the answer i expect.
we've had the kiwis, carney goes next, then fed then ecb. that'll be the order of play when dust settles. in the mean time, musical chairs and we make a market.

Mtl JP 22:29 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

red 22:16 does yellen putting out numerical definition show how little she understands how bond types and other market players calculate pricing of risk in the future ?

In any case the Bottom Line is that the current FED appears to be much less dovish relative to BoJ or the ECB if you want a fundy theme.

Cambridge Joe 22:27 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

23:40 showing e/$ trading long. A decent couple of hours at least. IMO.

That's me gone. :-)

Cambridge Joe 22:18 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

eurgbp 8346 beats the 4 hr setup. Then it's just a continuing sell on the 1 hour.... however, 22:35 sees it firm a bit... so I reckon... !

David Brent..... yes, and then some !

Good night all.

london red 22:16 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

JP, she may have been picked for her ability to talk/relay but think what she means and what she said are two different things on this occasion. think a few fed speakers will come out over next few days and underline that the assumption of rates going up a set period after end of taper is a false one.
weather is said to have tapered growth and the last thing they need is rates going up just when the economy is "due" to pick up speed again.

Mtl JP 22:02 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

art ... Joe you can not get an Economist's degree by taking clay modelling, flute or creative dance courses. You need tons of math and statistics courses. Yet the selection process for leadership position (policymaking and public yakking) inevitably puts emphasis on language skills , i.e capacity, ability and willingness to paint a picture with bullsh!t. No mater the art form, it has its place I ll have you note.

london red 22:00 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

i dont know fibo projections maybe...or too much sun!
i swear bbc should commission a series of interviews, some folk would give david brent a run for his money!

Cambridge Joe 21:40 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

'A demonstration is: 13978+13818 is 13898.'

Sometimes after making a post I feel like a complete twassock.

Then again, perhaps I am in good company.

Gold looking less depressed around 02:00 GMT. IMO !

GVI Forex john 21:07 GMT March 19, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


March 19, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, March 20. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CH- Swiss National Bank, US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes Sales

  • Far East: JP- Holiday.
  • Europe: CH- Swiss National Bank Decision.
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes Sales, Natural Gas.


Cambridge Joe 21:02 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

JP thanks for the ask... it's an interesting look.

eurgbp looks like it should be firming or at least holding for the time being. If it can maintain this sort of level ... well then, I'm getting 20:00 GMT next day, then eurgbp flags sell on the 4 hour.

You know this is more of an art than a science... so I hope you'll allow for that. :-) GL

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:58 GMT March 19, 2014
Welcome back !

You guys just watch 13818 on Euro.

A demonstration is: 13978+13818 is 13898.

This is the price at which EUR broke out, now it is hovering around 13818....

I wonder if I should warn before an impending blow out or you guys know when it is gonna happen.

Good Luck.

Mtl JP 20:54 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable

Joe u r making hold off on eurgbp short

Cambridge Joe 20:29 GMT March 19, 2014
Cable
Reply   
Cable showing signs of pulling up on the hourly, approx 09:00... 10:00 GMT.

That's what it looks like...... IMO. GL

Livingston nh 20:17 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

John - the 2yr is only 9 bps away from TAPER high last Summer before Ben & CO convinced market the taper wasn't tightening (i.e., rate hike) - Yellen is telling the market an impossible tale -- she believes in NAIRU but we could be at 5.5% unemployment in July/AUG and her not at "full employment" or "slack" comments will be in conflict with her model // market always tests the New Guy

dc CB 20:09 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

TPTB are still in control. as witnessed by the Usual Smack Down of Gold during an FMOC meeting week.

over $60 losses for those who "bought" the WWIII with Putin scam.

ba baa baaaa ba ...move along sheep

Mtl JP 20:05 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

well to be practical about it all the FED has to do to correct Yellen's faux pas - slip - is to orchestrate publication of some economic conditions taking a severe turn for the worse (smoke signals)
-
trade-wise gbpusd closing under the 50dma would be an initial longer-term sell signal

GVI Forex john 20:01 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

To translate Yellen's words into numbers, analysts are translating her comments into a 1.00% Fed Funds rate by mid-2015. Not much to panic about.

Livingston nh 19:50 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

jp - definitely would have been clearer if she answered the question "We're making this up as we go along" - that would have been much clearer // I mentioned a couple of weeks ago about the 6.6% unemployment rate and 2% inflation in the beginning of 1994 -- the 30 yr was about 6.5% and fed funds at 3.5% -- Ben had an excuse (Depression Obsession) but Yellen's only excuse is Yale

nw kw 19:47 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

check wheat up big and copper a bit some fear and risk on

dc CB 19:46 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision



It was the "Dots" that did the most damage.
Fed Funds at 1% in 2015???

the 5 Y took it on the chin....and futures fell even further after the 3PM close and Yellen kept talking.

1.5% pre anncment ....1.7 after....lots of "Folks" (O Speak) are loaded to the gils with 5vers....

My guess is that DaBoys will run Stox back up to new highs by the End of the Quarter and higher thru Tax Day (Refunds)

Quad Witching friday...so the fun ain't over yet.

The Dots

GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT March 19, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Mtl JP 19:42 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

nh - "was trying" ... trying ? you make it sound as if her level is still at a youtful level when it is still ok to have sex with all the wrong (the ones mother warned about) people. Isn't "excellent communications skills" at the TOP of hiring criteria trumping all other when selecting a CBanker ?
-
Expect her backstops make their imminent reparatory gumflapping appearances ?

Cambridge Joe 19:38 GMT March 19, 2014
pull-back
Reply   
Something of a pull-back about here.... maybe too small to bother with...

either it's a new selling opp or a bit of get out of jail opportunity... I'm flat for now. GL

GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

Considerable Period" After Bond-Buying Ends to Raise Rates Probably Means Around 6 Months. Suggests Roughly 6 Month Gap Before Rate Increases After Bond-Buying Program Ends


Too transparent? I doubt if she wanted the markets to focus on 6 mos?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:36 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

Yellen saying "considerable period" is around 6 months and that is what kicked the markets.

GVI Forex john 19:33 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

red- true the markets don't like this and I'm not exactly sure why...

london red 19:26 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

john, maybe not but +25bps for 15 and 16 on pre fomc. technically its risk off. but market needs to settle first.

Livingston nh 19:24 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

See this week if Treasury 10 yr yields can move above 2.80 and hold - EM should get pounded between TAPER and higher rates // Yellen was trying to describe an ad hoc (seat of the pants) rate regime

GVI Forex john 19:21 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

So far, the tone of Yellen's comments on the economy suggests to me no tightening of policy is remotely in the near or medium-term.

GVI Forex john 19:19 GMT March 19, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


GVI Forex Blog 19:12 GMT March 19, 2014
Fed Policy Steady; Forward Guidance Benchmarks Change. Active News Calendar Thursday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CH- Swiss National Bank, GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes Sales

Thursday highlights include the latest Swiss National Bank policy decision and U.K. Retail Sales. The U.S. highlights include: weekly Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Index and Existing Homes Sales.

Fed Policy Steady; Forward Guidance Benchmarks Change. Active News Calendar Thursday

Chicago AGA 19:04 GMT March 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

My best trade today was no trade!

nw kw 18:50 GMT March 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

stay on cad,jpy, and eur/gbp

nw kw 18:40 GMT March 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

gold
nw kw 18:39 GMT 03/19/2014
xagjpy doing pulling up poss yen drive

NY JM 18:38 GMT March 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Then back to the bunkers....

Mtl JP 18:31 GMT March 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

sometimes trading is like war:
long moments of boredom
short moments of excitement / desperation

Mtl JP 18:29 GMT March 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

gbpusd 50 day 1.6553 - at support , again

nw kw 18:24 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

reports cars are selling not to fast usd swing strength

GVI Forex john 18:23 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

Press Release

Release Date: March 19, 2014

For immediate release

GVI Forex john 18:22 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

Institutional trader telling us
"so not only did we not get the expected shift lower from 75bp median closer to 50bp end of 2015 target, we got a shift higher in the median from 75bps up to 1.00% at the end of 2015."

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:17 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

Looks like either a buy the rumor sell the fact reaction or just following spike in bond yields, led by the shorter end.

london red 18:16 GMT March 19, 2014
EURUSD

buy euro 138 stop under 13770
sell yen 10240/50 then 80/90 stop over 103.10
cable fib at 16537.

Livingston nh 18:15 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

Although expected, the fact FOMC backed off 6.5% says they misjudged last year how quickly their expectations would blow up // forward guidance is even easier to disavow

NY JM 18:05 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

Statement seems dovish (no rush to raise rates) but bond yields up, dollar up, stocks a touch lower. How markets end the day is more important than the initial reaction.

PAR 18:05 GMT March 19, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
Time to buy some Euro s. ?

GVI Forex john 18:04 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

Fed adds new dovish policy statement.

GVI Forex john 18:02 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision

As expected, the Fed drops its 6.50% unemployment threshold.

GVI Forex john 18:01 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision




NEWS ALERT
U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Rates: Unchanged
Asset Purchases: -$10bln to $55.0/mo


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 17:49 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 Fed Policy Decision
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (forum top)
EURUSD= 1.3915
GBPUSD= 1.6640
USDJPY= 101.72

US 10-yr= 2.71%
DE 10-yr= 1.60%
GB 10-yr= 2.69%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 17:46 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, fixed income markets remain mostly weaker ahead of the Fed decision. No rate changes are expected.

Equities are mixed to higher. The peripheral European bond prices are mixed to higher. The U.S. 10-yr was last at 2.71%, +3bp.



USA ZEUS 17:17 GMT March 19, 2014
hk ab comment

The simple way to look at it is to bracket the market with your call then explain later why you are always right.

Amman wfakhoury 17:14 GMT March 19, 2014
hk ab comment

Central Kwun 16:00 GMT 03/19/2014
gold
hk ab 15:48 GMT 03/19/2014
just one more thing to add after analysis:
-----------------------------------------------------

If you followed this "great trader" call yesterday, Gold closed 1361.5 for that EXACT 1 h bar, shall small fish like you buy? then, 1337 was reached minutes ago.
--------------------------------------------
The 1 hr bar if closed above 1360.60 and did not keeps above it..then any decline below it will return to it.
and that what happened it declined 1357 area then return to 1360.60 again.
then 1 hr bar closed below 1360.60 at 1360.10 ..you have to
take sell to 1353 area as signal.
my signals are not for idiots.

Paris ib 17:12 GMT March 19, 2014
FOMC outlook

JP - maybe but I don't think it sets trends for the Anglo-Saxon block. Anyway we'll see. Till then.... snore.

USA ZEUS 17:09 GMT March 19, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

Cambridge Joe 16:55 GMT 03/19/2014

Thanks Joe. Will use this thread as the classic core position trade setup of 2014. Best to you!

USA ZEUS 17:08 GMT March 19, 2014
FOMC outlook

Paris ib 17:01 GMT 03/19/2014

Sorry but the tail doesn't wag the dog.

Mtl JP 17:06 GMT March 19, 2014
FOMC outlook

US is Canada's largest trading partner (exports customer)

Paris ib 17:01 GMT March 19, 2014
FOMC outlook

JP - indeed but then Canada is an Anglo-French affair, so I don't really know if it counts in the general scheme of things. So far we have had New Zealand raise rates, the RBA call time on the idea that rates will fall, with Westpac now calling rate rises for 2015, the BoE has been hawkish.

Seems to me the USA is next - although softly, softly. We'll see. I don't see interest rate differentials making for long term currency trends though. The whole 'wall of money' argument has died a death. What a joke that was. So I'm not expecting to see USD weakness reversed in any meaningful way.

Cambridge Joe 16:55 GMT March 19, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

Hi Zeus ! Good luck and good trades !

Anyone long e/$ might like to secure gains at or around 20:00 GMT..... just to be sure !

IMO. GL

Mtl JP 16:54 GMT March 19, 2014
FOMC outlook

except BoC's Poloz... the dove

Paris ib 16:52 GMT March 19, 2014
FOMC outlook
Reply   
It's hard to think that the FED will be dovish, despite the mixed data. If you look around the emphasis is starting to shift. The U.K., New Zealand and Australian Central Banks have all been rather more hawkish than expected recently. The roll call of Anglo-Saxon economies moving - ever so slightly - towards a tightening bias is nearly complete. So they continue with the taper and their forward guidance will be just a tad more hawkish than the market is set up for right now.

USA ZEUS 16:37 GMT March 19, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

Never mess with a marine sniper and his Barrett 82A1 .416

USA ZEUS 16:34 GMT March 19, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top



This chart will be the top formation guidebook 100% for sure!

USA ZEUS 16:33 GMT March 19, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

prague mark 14:04 GMT March 14, 2014

Yes! Do your OWN research.

Cheers!

USA ZEUS 16:33 GMT March 19, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

prague mark 14:04 GMT March 14, 2014

Yes! Do yuor OWN research.

Cheers!

USA ZEUS 16:32 GMT March 19, 2014
EUR/USD ST Conditions
Reply   


Hard to imagine there won't be a breakout from FOMC saber toothed comments.

USA ZEUS 16:30 GMT March 19, 2014
EUR/USD Weekly Chart Outlook
Reply   


This chart will guide us through EUR/USD weather over several weeks coming.

GVI Forex Blog 16:17 GMT March 19, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Trading volumes are about 30% below average this morning as participants sit on their hands and await the Fed decision. The FOMC is widely expected to taper QE by another $10B to $55B later this afternoon, although the real focus will be on Chair Yellen's first press conference and her choice of words.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Waiting for the Fed

Central Kwun 16:00 GMT March 19, 2014
hk ab comment
Reply   
gold
hk ab 15:48 GMT 03/19/2014
just one more thing to add after analysis:
-----------------------------------------------------
Amman wfakhoury 16:45 GMT March 18, 2014
EURUSD 13900 confirmed: Reply
Central Kwun 16:23 GMT 03/18/2014
Buy Gold
Entry: 1357.5 Target: Stop:

awesome, what is next
----------------------------
if 1 hr bar closed above 1360.60 then 1368.56 will be reached.
if 1 hr bar closed below 1360.60 then 1353.72 will be reached.
------------------------------------------------------------

If you followed this "great trader" call yesterday, Gold closed 1361.5 for that EXACT 1 h bar, shall small fish like you buy? then, 1337 was reached minutes ago.

Mtl JP 15:59 GMT March 19, 2014
Global Markets News

Presidential Order...

front page of ESPN site.. is O discussing his NCAA bracket selections. like er.... dude, you've been so free to follow 64 teams to know what you're doing in terms of picks? like wtf... there's nothing better to do on your plate?

or is that a facade thing to keep up appearances ??
it is getting more surreal by the day

Mtl JP 15:36 GMT March 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

GVI Forex john 12:24 - can u plz pip-quantify your "not much expectation"

Belgrade TD 14:59 GMT March 19, 2014
It's too quiet
Reply   
just sit & arms crossed ...

Paris ib 14:48 GMT March 19, 2014
IT"S GETTING HOT BABY!!! BUY GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[email protected] I had to laugh !!

Iran etc.

Cambridge Joe 14:34 GMT March 19, 2014
January/February 2014 U.K. Employment Data

smooth operator red !

I have usdx showing possible south moves appr 14:44.... GL

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT March 19, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +5.800 vs. +2.500 exp vs. +6.200 prev.
Gasoline: -1.470 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -5.200 prev.
Distillates:-3.100 vs. -0.500 exp vs.-0.530 prev.
Cap/Util: 85.60% vs. 85.80% exp vs. 86.00% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 14:25 GMT March 19, 2014
January/February 2014 U.K. Employment Data

Covering one cable here, on second stop lowered to breakeven. Sub 6605 brings 6585/70 into play.

HK [email protected] 14:21 GMT March 19, 2014
IT"S GETTING HOT BABY!!! BUY GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!



They are all getting out of their minds. All into the shelters!!!

HK [email protected] 14:18 GMT March 19, 2014
IT"S GETTING HOT BABY!!! BUY GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Reply   


Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu orders defense forces to prepare for possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities - @haaretzonlineIsrael Prime Minister Netanyahu orders defense forces to prepare for possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities - @haaretzonline

Paris ib 14:14 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

HK [email protected] 12:08 GMT Glad you liked it. ;-)

GVI Forex john 14:05 GMT March 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

sf good point. Dovish fed implies higher stocks. Higher S&P implies higher USDJPY. Weaker JPY implies EUR demand. Long EURJPY??

Thoughts?

Tartu kuues 13:59 GMT March 19, 2014
USDCHF MyTrade

if long here Before Yellen?

Tartu kuues 13:57 GMT March 19, 2014
USDCHF MyTrade

Tallinn Mytrade Markets 13:03 GMT 03/19/2014

Where you suggest to put stop...if at all...
1.38700000?

Cambridge Joe 13:46 GMT March 19, 2014
AUDUSD
Reply   
AUSUSD looking firmer from appr 14:00 GMT. IMO. GL

Tallinn Mytrade Markets 13:03 GMT March 19, 2014
USDCHF MyTrade



Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1,3790 Target: 1,4040 Stop:

From the technical point of view, EURUSD’s future still has not been decided. Today’s press-conference that will given by J. Yellen could push EURUSD up. If the currency will be able to fix it’s positions above the 1,3790, we recommend buying pair with a possible resistance levels at 1,4010, 1,4040 and 1,4070.

Tallinn Mytrade Markets 13:00 GMT March 19, 2014
USDCHF MyTrade
Reply   


Sell USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

USDCHF continues to move sideways. It probably awaits for the final FOMC decision to be made before actually choosing the next path. Today we should see new developments.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:47 GMT March 19, 2014
Wednesday's Trading Outlook
Reply   
Given the lull until the FOMC decision, I am posting my Daily Forex Trading Outlook that I posted on GVIForex earlier:



Video Market Update

Waiting for the FOMC, beware of tight ranges, watch 1.39 pattern.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:41 GMT March 19, 2014
gold

ab, you posted that on the wrong forum. Pls use the Gold Forum.

Syd sf 12:40 GMT March 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

its important because it will send euryen to 142.50 or 139.50

depending how the market interprets it.

hk ab 12:31 GMT March 19, 2014
gold
Reply   
2nd half-armada entry 1342.

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT March 19, 2014
U.S. Current Account 4Q13 (USD bln)
Reply   



ALERT
-81.1 vs. -87.6 exp. vs. -94.8 (r 96.37) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources


GVI Forex john 12:24 GMT March 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today
Reply   
I'm not expecting much from the Fed today. I don''t see any trade on it. The Fed should taper by another $10bln. As for short-term monetary policy, I expect the Fed to remain dovish.

As for future policy guidance, It would be logical to expect Yellen to move away from quantitative guidance and start qualitative guidance, since it should not upset the markets and today she has a press conference to explain the change.

This should have no market impact, but it will give market commentators something to talk about.

HK [email protected] 12:08 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot



Paris IB. Nice article worth reading. Thanks

HK [email protected] 12:04 GMT March 19, 2014
Bismilllllah 1.6650 SellGBP/Buy gold
Reply   


January/February 2014 U.K. Employment Data
HK [email protected] 09:38 GMT 03/19/2014


1.6650

Paris ib 11:52 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

John you could say that about U.S. GDP (hugely and comically revised), Non-Farm Payrolls.... it's starting to be a bit of an all round joke. But I disagree with you about the TIC data.... I consider it fundamental, if flawed information.

GDP in the U.S. and INTANGIBLES

Mtl JP 11:49 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

until, one day, there is a run on the dollar

GVI Forex john 11:08 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

TIC Flows

I've never paid much attention to the TIC data because what happened a couple of months ago impacted the markets long ago...

Furthermore I have no idea HOW they even track the flows. I suppose I never really have trusted the data. Recall they are subject to massive revisions month to month, so you never could trust the data anyway.

They ought to just drop the series because it is, and has been, garbage anyway.

Paris ib 11:02 GMT March 19, 2014
Crimea
Reply   
"Russia promised to respond “symmetrically.” In its arsenal is: popping the huge financial bubble and causing a resumption of the financial collapse of 2008 by any number of means, from requiring gold instead of fiat currency as payment for oil and gas, to dumping US dollar reserves (in concert with China)..."

An alternative point of view

Horbat Qindex 10:51 GMT March 19, 2014
EUR/AUD : Critical Point 1.5039
Reply   
Buy EURAUD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/AUD : The odds are in favour of taking a long position when the market is testing the critical level at 1.5039 - 1.5235.


Qindex.com

Quantum Index Analysis

HK [email protected] 10:27 GMT March 19, 2014
GBP: Loss of upward momentum after data. At least for now.
Reply   


??? Good news not so good news???

GVI Forex Blog 10:13 GMT March 19, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
FX markets were in a holding pattern ahead of the FOMC rate decision (first under the tenue of Chair Janel Yellen). Markets will focus whether the Fed amends its guidance due to the extreme US winter weather

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Focus on FOMC and whether guidance has been altered by the extreme US winter weather

GVI Forex Blog 09:48 GMT March 19, 2014
Fed Policy Decision Today. U.K. Jobs Data Steady
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Fed Decision & Press Conference

Wednesday sees the latest Fed rates decision. No changes in the present course of policy are expected. With long-term U.S. rates low and the economy doing better. There could be a temptation to accelerate the pace of the Fed asset purchase taper, but caution suggests they will keep to their $10bln per month reduction pace.

Fed Policy Decision Today. U.K. Jobs Data Steady

GVI Forex john 09:39 GMT March 19, 2014
January/February 2014 U.K. Employment Data



U.K. Claimant Count Unemployment about steady (after previous month revision). 7% Unemployment Carney target to consider raising rates.(Note: A declining Claimant Count is stronger and vice-versa.)

london red 09:38 GMT March 19, 2014
January/February 2014 U.K. Employment Data

covered eurgbp here due to cable base view. support at 50/44 so technically some more room to go.

HK [email protected] 09:38 GMT March 19, 2014
January/February 2014 U.K. Employment Data



1.6650

london red 09:36 GMT March 19, 2014
January/February 2014 U.K. Employment Data

not looking good for cable if cannot hold gains up overall +ve data/news.
short ahead of 200 hour stop above 65. target sup at 05 then 6585/65

GVI Forex john 09:31 GMT March 19, 2014
January/February 2014 U.K. Employment Data
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Claimant Count (000): -34.6 vs. -25.0 exp. vs. -27.6 (r -33.9) prev.
ILO Unemployment: 7.20% vs. 7.20% exp. vs. 7.20% prev.
Average Earnings:1.40% vs. +1.20% exp. vs. +1.10% (r 1.20%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 09:30 GMT March 19, 2014
March 2014 BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Rates:Tighten = 0 Unchanged =9 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0


TTN: Live News Special Offer

HK [email protected] 09:16 GMT March 19, 2014
White house puts JP and GS out of business as financial advisers.

/

Forgive please...just a small violation. Just a chapter in Comedia del arte Obamawhitehouse.

GVI Forex john 09:14 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly steady heading into the Fed decision today. Odds are policy will be held unchanged. At this hour, markets seem neither to be in a "risk-on" or "risk-off" posture at the moment.

The peripheral European bond prices are mostly up. European equities are slightly weaker. Far East markets closed mixed. U.S. equity futures are steady at this hour.

Cambridge Joe 08:56 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

PAR 07:33 GMT 03/19/2014
....'they can not just disappear like an airplane .'

LOL ! :-)

Mtl JP 08:54 GMT March 19, 2014
White house puts JP and GS out of business as financial advisers.

so if not you... who is going to file a complaint with the SEC ?

Paris ib 08:22 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Who's scared of the TIC data?

So far we have either had:

- Media silence on the TIC data.
- The circa 3 billion outflow seen in January misreported as an inflow of nearly 100 billion (on this forum).
- Explanations of why the TIC can't be trusted because the United States really has morphed into the ex Soviet Union and the data is just invented on the fly (well that's certainly a comforting thought - yes I'd push that line if I wanted to bolster confidence in the USD and the current U.S. administration).

All this while the U.S. goes blundering around the world with a foreign policy from hell (or Monty Python or the Addam's Family - take your pick). Suddenly the idea of having your money frozen by the Yanks on the flimsiest of pretexts must seem very real to the Chinese who hold over 1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. (And you ask yourself why the Chinese abstained from the recent vote on Crimea. Well not really.) Should the fear of having funds frozen in the U.S. for decades (see Iran) gain currency the implications for the USD would be very dire indeed. Surely the Yanks understand this? No, perhaps not.

And still no coherent reporting on why the U.S. is unable to return Germany's gold..... it's not a good look.

Where is Germany's Gold ?

nw kw 08:13 GMT March 19, 2014
gbp

gbp/jpy has legs

nw kw 08:08 GMT March 19, 2014
gbp

than gbp/cad will pay big--cad week

london red 07:58 GMT March 19, 2014
gbp
Reply   
cable hit 1.66 target now sitting just below 1.6605 fibo, requires move thru there (hourly close) to have a run at yesterdays high. technicals suggest another move lower to test key support (50 day ma and 6537 fibo) but uk jobs data on way soon and could surprise to the upside.

PAR 07:33 GMT March 19, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

If Belgium indeed bought $ 100 billion of treasuries they should show up somewhere or they can not just disappear like an airplane .

Belgium is famous for theyre black economy , maybe they bought the treasuries with black money .

The biggest white wash in the worlds history.

PAR 07:28 GMT March 19, 2014
USDJPY
Reply   
USDJPY looks well bid . Hard to get positive on JPY as Japan showing gigantic twin deficits . The mother of all deficits are in Japan and they are trying to solve it with more debt . Sooner or later Japan will implode .

GVI Forex Blog 05:14 GMT March 19, 2014 Reply   
- (JP) JAPAN FEB MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -¥800.3B V -¥600.0BE; ADJUSTED TRADE BALANCE: -¥1.13T (smallest deficit in four months) V -¥907.0BE - (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: 0.2% V 1.0%

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan trade deficit exceeds estimates but still marks its lowest level in 4 months - Source TradeTheNews.com

HK [email protected] 03:59 GMT March 19, 2014
White house puts JP and GS out of business as financial advisers.



Mtl JP 23:56

Jay Carney just forgot to remind the investors, that investment value may go up as well down.
This guy is simply politically immature. No experienced politician will talk that way.

Should be published in a book named: "Reminiscents from Obama white house fartings"

Sorry, but this is another symptom that the US administration is swaying out of balance.

GVI Forex Blog 03:27 GMT March 19, 2014 Reply   
The global markets are in a mixed mode as it waits for the conclusion

Morning Briefing : 19-Mar-2014 -0326 GMT

dc CB 02:54 GMT March 19, 2014
In Rome they read entrails Now they READ "What's on that Bagel"
Reply   
Hilzenrath: 42 seconds after the Fed (Janet, I never met a a bagel with Lox ...) Opens her mouth....AHilzy releases the What It's All About ...ALGOS GO WILD taking out all the possibly imagined Stops....onl to return to the Question: Capers or Red Onion Slices????

Introducing the New New New Grandma from (some NY borrough can't be sure because of the accent) Fed Chair(WOOOOman)

The Hisszeee bake-off. Which will I Chooooose. tnks all The J.

Syd sf 02:29 GMT March 19, 2014
Asia FX
Reply   
when I saw cadyen last night I knew that $yen was going to have trouble staying bid.

when you see a currency locked in a 30 point range which normally trades closer to 100 it was inevitable to see a break.

I just think we are stuck with a weaker USD until it's clear we have some sort of timeframe for an impeding US Hike.

eurusd held the 200 and its higher today closer to 1.3900 - so it still makes it a cheap trade to buy above and if it breaks go with it.

audusd I'm not surprised it took some time off in asia today - its moved counter to many analysts thinking and I'm sure some corporate flows took advantage of the highest Asia price for some time.

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:32 GMT March 19, 2014
AceTrader March 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Reply   
19 Mar 2014 01:16GMT
USD/CAD - 1.1132... Canadian broadcasting crop reports that Canada's new FinMin will be Joe Oliver, replacing Jim Flaherty who resigned on Tuesday.

18 Mar 2014 23:52GMT
USD/JPY - 101.42... Japan trade Feb balance came in at -800.3B, vs the expectation of -600.0B.

23:30GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9132... Westpac leading index came in at -0.1% in Feb, prev. reading revised fm -0.2% to -0.1%.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:55 GMT March 19, 2014
Top Macro Economic Data Releases for Trading
Reply   
John has created a series of Top Macro Economic Data Releases for Trading and this is the latest one

Top Macro Economic Data Releases for Trading: Purchasing Managers Report

Mtl JP 00:06 GMT March 19, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

Canadian Fin Min Jim Flaherty resigns
no replacement yet

 




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