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Forex Forum Archive for 03/29/2014

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HK [email protected] 23:32 GMT March 29, 2014
Anti-corruption police raid the home of IMF chief Christine Lagarde
Reply   
Anti-corruption police raid the home of IMF chief Christine Lagarde after claims she 'authorised £270m payout to a convicted fraudster'

Police today raided the International monetary Fund's Paris home
Relates to £270m payout to Bernard Tapie when she was finance minister
Court of Justice of the Republic ruled that she may have abused her position
Her lawyer said the search will 'help uncover the truth' and 'exonerate' her

LINK

dc CB 23:22 GMT March 29, 2014
Fun with Covers

the paywall a bit complicated to skirt

go here

http://inagist.com/all/449911709650530305/

click on the top Webcache link for the full

webcache

Mtl JP 22:51 GMT March 29, 2014
Fun with Covers

who is Gene_Epstein

apparently "He wrote a book called Making Money in Commodities in 1976" ... required reading in rodney dangerfield's "back to school"

Mtl JP 22:29 GMT March 29, 2014
Fun with Covers

CB lots of shale operators will go titsup at sub $75barrel
including Harper's Alberta oilsands

BRING IT ON !
I am paying $1.44 per liter of gasoline forkrisakes

dc CB 22:18 GMT March 29, 2014
Fun with Covers

from Google search

the full article

link

dc CB 22:11 GMT March 29, 2014
Fun with Covers
Reply   
Joe :))))))

murdocks premiere Weekly

Oil down Kills Putin

nw kw 21:31 GMT March 29, 2014
"The possibility of another Russian incursion is very real"

need the wheat belt to be safe for pudding

Cambridge Joe 21:14 GMT March 29, 2014
USDX
Reply   
USDX continuing softer with a buy breaking out from the beginning of April. Looking for 10703 ish.

Oil selling from open. Looking for $3.20 over maybe 10 trading days.

IMO. GL

Cambridge Joe 20:09 GMT March 29, 2014
"The possibility of another Russian incursion is very real"

CB. Agreed.... the monopoly board could get kicked up in the air....

Earlier I looked at SP 500 which has a major sell on the weekly around end April (20th)/ poss early May. Look for a halving of present values.

Again on the weekly Gold has a corresponding and opposite (buy) signal early July (6th). Look for >+$2000. In fact, nothing I have below 15 mins is diametrically opposed to buy. Daily while not a full on buy appears to be currently on a suppt @ 1290 ish. Weekly, yet to mature ...

I can't be very clear about times... it is the weekly chart.

IMO. GL. Take care !

dc CB 19:46 GMT March 29, 2014
"The possibility of another Russian incursion is very real"

Joe:

This is Cold War 2.0. The West is crumbling under a mountain of debt(and fraud). The "have-nots" are getting restless. In the US the elected ones are across the board viewed as fools, if not worse, a not just part of the problem, but The Problem.
And the Problem is "elections".

Elections this year and next in the US. What would be better to have as issues. Finger pointing candidates...your fault...no your fault...

Or "unite against our common enemy" . If the SHTF and the markets do Crash again, there will be so many fingers pointed you won't be able to cross the room. Really good idea to have an Evil Empire waiting in the wings. And you can't set that up overnight. The "wack-a-mole" Terrorist are gonna' get us - is old meme. No one rallies behind that anymore. (sarc-off???)

Cambridge Joe 19:14 GMT March 29, 2014
"The possibility of another Russian incursion is very real"

CB several (many) years ago I took my two youngest to a Military 'families-day' event.

Using a Milan Anti Tank system (now old hat) the boy of eight years killed 6 out of 10 MBTs and the girl of 6 killed 2 out of 10 MBTs.

That shocked me as to how user friendly these things are.

Both used the SA80 Assault rifle with live and weren't too bad (Not as good as me tho !)

My point is that with a modicum of training a guerilla force can be formed and be highly effective.

If equipped they will inflict death by a thousand cuts on the invader.

In fact, the Soviets were among the first to use road-side IEDs in the defence of Leningrad, as Army Group North advanced.

They even packed great old houses with explosives. Those houses they knew the Germans would occupy as a local headquarters, sometimes using a six month timer !!!

Surprise ? I would think so.

Mtl JP 18:59 GMT March 29, 2014
Knowledge is Power - Read These Articles

dc CB 18:38 - there is no need to get excited about that - everyone knows that everyone else spies on one another.
the only thing that likely pisses off Angela is that the thing has become public comedy.

dc CB 18:55 GMT March 29, 2014
"The possibility of another Russian incursion is very real"

If the US is really that concerned about a Russian invasion of the rest of Ukraine, then you might think that they would have learned from their own experience in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Cheap, deadly, low tech and easily dispersed.......
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

that's the point, even going back to VietNam...when the US threw all the big war hardware at the VietCong. The humiliation of it all.

What is needed to get things back on track is a good old fashioned enemy/threat that also had an arsenal of high tech really expensive war machines. a well defined threat that the "entire country" can rally against, and willing spend billions on moar. Cities we can threaten to bomb, borders that can be crosses. Tanks, planes, ships..... Fight WWII again...hey we won that one. It's been so long since we've had one of those, most of the population have no idea what it's like....Hey we can use it as an excuse to re-instate the draft...that will get those millenials out of their parents basement.

sarcstic? mabey. that some are thinking that way?

GVI Forex Blog 18:47 GMT March 29, 2014
EZ Flash HICP (CPI) on Monday, Also German Retail Sales. Both Could Be Pivotal
Reply   
IGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Industrial Output, PMI, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP CA- GDP, US- Chicago PMI

On Monday flash EZ March HICP) CPI) will be released and that data could be decisive. It is difficult to trust the European Central Bank. We have been getting what appear to be misleading leaks out of the bank, as it appears officials try to trick the markets into weakening the EUR in forex markets. We are sympathetic with the goal, but you can only fool the markets a limited number of times before it back-fires.

EZ Flash HICP (CPI) on Monday, Also German Retail Sales. Both Could Be Pivotal

Cambridge Joe 18:10 GMT March 29, 2014
Week Ahead

" For the last six to 12 months, markets for some reason have been ignoring a lot of the geopolitical risk, "

very interesting JP.

Having looked at some longer term possibilities aka the survey on GV, I looked at the various things and SP500 has a sell big time appearing to be at or around 11 May. This is from the weekly chart, so a few weeks at / around/ after..... best I can get from here.

However... it's a biggie.... could see things halved in value from here.... Sorros will be happy I guess....

War-fever ? No my friend, it's just too sad and predictable how many Janets and Johns, how many Ivans and Irinas will not make old bones if these megalomaniacs decide to get rough. (That's both sides, I'm not pro either... )

Mtl JP 16:50 GMT March 29, 2014
Week Ahead

maybe this week, maybe next week...

Goldman Sachs President Says Markets ‘Ignoring’ Risks - bloomberg

“For the last six to 12 months, markets for some reason have been ignoring a lot of the geopolitical risk,” Cohn, 53, said in an interview with Canadian television network CBC ... .. ... “Anytime we get any sell-off in the market, there’s new investors coming into the market, so we haven’t seen that repricing,” Cohn said. .../..
-
Cohn does not expand on the FED gang's printing much less tapering - i.e. their “exit strategy” - from having inflated liquidity from a sub ONE TRILLION to $4.5 TRILLION and now simply bring the printing to a (allegedly gradual) stop without a nire consequence

how unfortunate of Cohn to pass that over

Mtl JP 15:58 GMT March 29, 2014
"The possibility of another Russian incursion is very real"

Joe have u caught war fever to tangle with the Bear ?
almost sounds like something copied from USATODAY's safe-in-washington-warhawk "military analysts" ...

In the meantime, suggest better prepare to allocate bigger portion of budget for bread (wheat prices likely to rise), cat scans (nuclear isotopes on the up n UP) and house heating amongst a slew of other daily essential likely to rise in price

Cambridge Joe 13:16 GMT March 29, 2014
"The possibility of another Russian incursion is very real"

If the US is really that concerned about a Russian invasion of the rest of Ukraine, then you might think that they would have learned from their own experience in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Cheap, deadly, low tech and easily dispersed, roadside whatdoyamacallits have really rendered old fashioned invasions a thing of the past.

Just ask the USMC how they feel about these things !

Besides, no one is better equipped to deal with large scale troop concentrations than the US / NATO, in a more orthodox way.

Smile as you wave me goodbye. (A song. )

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:01 GMT March 29, 2014
Knowledge is Power - Read These Articles
Reply   
The following are articles published over the past week that are worth reading:

- Your Move Mario! Themes March 30, 2014:
- New IRS Rules on Bitcoin
- Why Can’t I Make Money Trading?
- Why Top Macro-Economic Data News Matters: CPI
- I Got Screwed

Knowledge is Power - Read These Articles

Krasnoyarsk 06:27 GMT March 29, 2014
NZ Dollar
Reply   
Buy
Entry: Target: Stop:

What's happening to the currency of New Zealand?
Summer in New Zealand lasts from December to February. And the current period, the time when the state treasury and business get the maximum profit in the year. The main reason - a surge of agricultural exports at the end of harvesting period.
This is the main reason that the New Zealand dollar hit yearly highs. Moreover, these peaks appear in the current time every year with an enviable uniformity.
However, in 2011 there was a situation in which the exchange rate after the peak harvest season continued to increase by 700 points. What is the reason for this development? The main reason is the good economic performance. With regard to the current time is matching a series of indicators, it can be concluded that the current level of growth looks much more promising than in 2011. This is confirmed by GDP, export, unemployment, domestic demand and tourist arrival. Also worth noting is a steady growth in key partner countries. In China, GDP growth is excellent at 10% per year. Australia and the United States at the peak of their macroeconomic performance in two years. This says about a reliable fundamental position of New Zealand in the current time. The government, realizing the situation, does not miss the chance, increased base rate to 2.75%. This is very conservative.
Tourism is the second most important source of income. During the first two months of 2014 compared with the previous year an increase of 9.5%.
Thus, looking at all the figures, comparing and analyzing the past and thinking about the future, we conclude. New Zealand is on the crest of a wave of growth.
And not surprisingly will be, and even reasonable and natural that the national currency will continue its rapid growth to the point until it reaches historic highs of 0.88409. And in the second currency will grow until the negative signals from the business.
Additionally give one digit of my calculations. Increase the rate of 250 points, 0.15% annual GDP decreases only by reducing the cost of exports. I think it's not scary. Because of this greatly reduced the competitiveness of goods abroad. What influences on reduce exports, or a decrease in net profit. In any case, expect lower exports data before you start to sell New Zealand dollar.

HK [email protected] 05:15 GMT March 29, 2014
"The possibility of another Russian incursion is very real"
Reply   

Russia's buildup near Ukraine may reach 40,000 troops: U.S. sources.

(Reuters) - Russia's reinforcement of troops near Ukraine has brought the total forces there to as many as 40,000, U.S. officials estimated on Friday, as the United States voiced anxiety over the buildup and called on Moscow to pull back its military.

The U.S. estimates of as many as 35,000 to around 40,000 troops are higher than the more than 30,000 total deployments reported earlier this week by U.S. and European sources familiar with official reporting.

Some European sources remain cautious of increasing the estimates beyond 30,000.

The military buildup is adding to concerns that Russia may again be readying an incursion into Ukraine following its annexation of Crimea, which has triggered the worst stand-off with the West since the Cold War.

"The possibility of another Russian incursion is very real," a U.S. intelligence official said, echoing increasingly ominous statements by other Obama administration officials.

The Russian deployments included the establishment of supply lines and the fielding of a wide range of military forces, U.S. officials say, speaking on condition of anonymity.

These include militia or special forces units made up of Russian fighters wearing uniforms lacking insignia or other identifying markings, similar to the first Russian forces to move into Crimea during Russia's recent military takeover there, according to U.S. and European sources familiar with official reporting.

The Pentagon has said there was no indication that the forces were carrying out the kind of springtime military exercises Moscow has officially cited as the reason for their deployment.

U.S. President Barack Obama on Friday described the buildup as out of the ordinary.

"You've seen a range of troops massing along that border under the guise of military exercises," he said on CBS "This Morning" in Vatican City. "But these are not what Russia would normally be doing."

Obama said the moves might be no more than an effort to intimidate Ukraine, but could be a precursor to other actions.

"It may be that they've got additional plans," he said in excerpts from an interview with CBS "Evening News," to be broadcast in full on Friday night.

Ukraine's government has put its heavily outnumbered and outgunned forces on alert for an invasion from Russia in the east, following Moscow's takeover of Crimea, as the West moves to isolate Russia diplomatically and pressure it economically.

Ukraine's estimates of Russian forces near the border are far higher than Western figures, with Ukrainian security chief Andriy Parubiy citing nearly 100,000 troops on Thursday, via webcast from Kiev to a U.S. think tank. His comments can be seen here: here

Exactly what Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to do with his forces on the Ukraine border is not known, U.S. officials said.

Some officials say intelligence information available to policymakers regarding what Putin is thinking, and what he is saying to his advisers and military commanders, is fragmentary to non-existent.

Putin has reserved the right to send troops into Ukraine, the eastern part of which is home to a large population of Russian-speakers. On Friday, he said Russia's takeover of Crimea showed off its military prowess.

"The recent events in Crimea were a serious test," Putin was shown saying on state television.

"They demonstrated both the completely new capabilities of our Armed Forces and the high morale of the personnel."

A good hotty issue/reason for invasion.

 




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