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Forex Forum Archive for 04/04/2014

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nw kw 23:59 GMT April 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

look at gbp

GVI Forex john 23:57 GMT April 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

USDJPY positions remain heavily overbought. Have to watch the S&P closely. If stocks break something has to give in the S&P to USDJPY correlation..

nw kw 23:50 GMT April 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

s&p gets a life line

nw kw 23:48 GMT April 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

chf cot the shorts are hiding this time

GVI Forex john 23:29 GMT April 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

This chart blew me away earlier today because the way net longs track the exchange rate so closely.. It drives me nuts that the data are so old by the time they are released. On balance I don't see much potential for a major EURUSD stop-driven move from the specs (either way).

dc CB 22:25 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

raise Qs about ZH's agenda ?????????

ZH "screamed" about HFTs for Years and was ignored or labeled a Wacko Blog Site...Michael Lewis writes a book and suddenly all of the MSM and all of "Law Enforcement(?)" is ON IT.

give me a break with your "agenda"

PAR 22:17 GMT April 4, 2014
Yellen and the labor market
Report says blacks, Latinos losing economic ground

Labor market problems cannot be solved by QE .

WASHINGTON (AP) — African-Americans and Latinos are losing economic ground when compared with whites in the areas of employment and income as the United States pulls itself out of the Great Recession, the latest State of Black America report from the National Urban League says.

The annual report, called "One Nation Underemployed: Jobs Rebuild America," noted that the underemployment rate for African-American workers was 20.5 percent, compared with 18.4 percent for Hispanic workers and 11.8 percent for white workers. Underemployment is defined as those who are jobless or working part-time jobs but desiring full-time work.

Mtl JP 22:04 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

dc CB / searched the wire .
it is on ZH instead . that pic montage of 0 and Vlad is over the top. raise Qs about ZH's agenda

dc CB 22:03 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

oh yeh----Da News of Da Week Dat Wuz....(when will Eric "P." Holder set his DogsOJ loose on....Where is Jon Corzine)

New York, April 3, 2014 - James W. Giddens, Trustee for the Securities Investor Protection Act (SIPA) liquidation of MF Global Inc. (MFGI), today announced the final, 100% distribution to fully satisfy all claims of former MFGI public customers. With this distribution, a total of $6.7 billion will have been returned to over 26,000 securities customers and commodities futures customers. Distributions will commence on Friday, April 4, 2014, and will continue for several weeks.

“It gives me great pleasure to say that checks are going in the mail that will make all public customers of MF Global Inc. 100% whole,” Giddens said. “When MF Global failed more than two years ago, few thought a way could be found to make customers whole. This is the result of Herculean efforts by many professionals, including Hughes Hubbard & Reed LLP and Deloitte & Touche LLP.”

dc CB 21:46 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

liked ---- linked

dc CB 21:46 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News


sorry not liked to your thoughts, just my late day ramblings.

re: Janet predick-tion. She is the FED's Mary Barra (see GM). The former male GM CEOs are fatly rewarded and long gone...none of them are being grilled by Committees.

Greenspan is sainted, Ben gets $250K/hour for admitting he was wrong.

Barra get's thrown under the bus...thinking was: how hard can they go on a woman. Yellen....well we'll just have to wait see...but how hard can you go on Granny.

Mtl JP 21:27 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

dc CB is that in A to my JP 16:12 ... a Waterloo moment for the dollar headline ?
ya don't say ... more sanctions yik yak if defense of the petrodollar as reserve currency and all that means for US hegemony ?
my Qtns are:
- what can Janet do ?
- what would/will Janet do ?
- and what is/will Dempsey doing ?
against isolating from the dollar ?

dc CB 20:59 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

good call on oil for past Sun...hope you got your 3 bucks.

today's news from the Resource War Front:

This weekend the average "investor" in the US will be having thoughts about getting out, I would think. And now that Da Boys have a "boogie man" to blame - HFT....after all it's in the News so it must be true... and Eric (we can't convict any banker) Holder is on the JOB...could be a good time to pull out the rug.


Cambridge Joe 20:43 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

I might be making a complete fool of myself here.... but SnP crash and burn commence approx 18 April according to the weekly chart.

Scope out 50%. If it ain't nailed down...... well.... at least make safe!

IMO... of course !

dc CB 20:25 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

I had thought that the SnP would tag 1900, or at least 1899 this week before it "corrected".
Close but no cigar.

Maybe the HFT shops are really po's that suddenly the SEC, the FBI and the JustUs Department are going after them, and they decided to pull a Paulson ... aka Crash the market.

Eric "Place" Holder gets on it babeeeee.

WSJ Breaking News @WSJbreakingnews
U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder confirms Justice Department investigation into high-frequency trading.
9:27 AM - 4 Apr 2014

london red 20:15 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

what will be will be JP. cant win them all. but have to buy a ticket to win the lotto.

GVI Forex john 19:46 GMT April 4, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Jerusalem Kb 19:42 GMT April 4, 2014

Dow Jones trade hit SL with 55pips-

dc CB 19:41 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

there's a 10Y auction on Wed.
You expected a good aka 0ver 200K 275K that some idiot "predick-ted". Hasn't anyone been paying attention.

london red 19:39 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

looking simply at quarterly chart. we opened at the high of the last quarter. normally we will trade within part (sometimes all if trend change) of the range of the previous quarter

Mtl JP 19:38 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

red we r in last half hour of stox trading
watching S&P and usdyen prance like conjoined twins, pip for tick
risk is you ll see sub 103 dlryen on Monday

london red 19:34 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

thats my second yen on fibo touch. avg 28. stop at 103.04 for the lot. if we go below fib then we're probably going to 102.40/50 but it gives me a slight cushion.

Mtl JP 19:19 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

that is three too many

dc CB 19:13 GMT April 4, 2014

the No POMO today: $95bln

Reverse Repo

GVI Forex john 19:12 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

only three stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are up.

GVI Forex john 18:56 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

JM- June Nikkei futures is currently down -240 points (14,835). The cash Nikkei closed -8 1503.77. The question is will the cash market add on to the -240pt loss already built in?

NY JM 18:52 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

Getting to be an ugly in equities. Assume Nikkei will follow?

Mtl JP 18:33 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

right and exactly the point of my post , which is why I made it

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:31 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

JP Japan data for April onwards is most important as it will indicate the impact of the consumption rate hike and influence expectations of fresh BoJ ease.

Livingston nh 17:54 GMT April 4, 2014
We should know in the next half hour or so if there will be any nasty spillover from the "no news" sell-off in NDX and RUT -- buy the dips into the close has worked often this year // not much of a lunch time rally, more of a pause, so the yen is the one to watch if SPX joins the downside

Mtl JP 17:28 GMT April 4, 2014
(MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO Lloyd Blankfein pay jumped in 2013 to $19.9 million in total compensation, from $13.3 million in 2012, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission methodology, in a filing on Friday. As part of the compensation, Blankfein received $11.3 million in stock awards. The firm's president and COO Gary Cohn was paid $18 million last year, versus approximately $12.5 million the year before. Shares for Goldman Sachs was up 15% in the last 12 months but has been down 7% year-to-date

GVI Forex Blog 17:15 GMT April 4, 2014
GVI Forex Data Outlook for April 7, 2014
April 3, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, April 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Leading Indicators, CH- CPI, DE- Industrial Output

GVI Forex Data Outlook for April 7, 2014

GVI Forex john 17:14 GMT April 4, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

April 3, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, April 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Leading Indicators, CH- CPI, DE- Industrial Output

  • AU/NZ- Clocks "fall back" one hour.
  • Far East: JP- Leading Indicators.
  • Europe: CH- CPI, DE- Industrial Output
  • North America: no major data.

Mtl JP 17:09 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

GV Econ Calendar:
08/04/14 4:30 JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%
08/04/14 23:30 JP Trade JPYb n/a -2.345

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:04 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

103.75 was the breakout level but not able to close the week above it. Much will depend on whether the Nikkei follows weaker US equities.

Livingston nh 16:54 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

Longer term pressures ?- wkly charts - rising 21 MA have been supportive for many months - but EUR/USD (1.3682), EUR/JPY (140.60) and USD/JPY (102.75 -altho this one has been more active over/under 21ma) are sitting on or near a wkly break below - GBP/USD wkly 21 has cushion to 1.6474 but 89 daily ema is now up to 1.6471 // if you look at these use an MACD indicator as well

london red 16:31 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

thks JP. we are well off weeks high so sunday/monday can kick up straight up as no need to retrace. its a possibility. can still go a bit lower but not much more i think. another buy 20/23 if seen stop under 10. ideally want below 102.93 but too much in one go for me.

Mtl JP 16:27 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

red 15:51 long usdyen on BoJ and trade numbers fundamentals may be the ticket next week

GVI Forex john 16:18 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Correlation trade working as usual. S&P tried to rally, but USDJPY could not hold up. USDJPY fell and its looking like the S&P is FOLLOWING.

Mtl JP 16:16 GMT April 4, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

john... did you miss my earlier posts about 10-yr at 2.8% ?

GVI Forex john 16:13 GMT April 4, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

I never dreamt the fixed income markets would do this before the data were released this morning.

btw- the NASDAQ has been slammed today (froth?).

Mtl JP 16:12 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

what is missing now is some crazy geo / political headline

GVI Forex john 16:09 GMT April 4, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in fixed income markets have turned sharply higher following the disappointing U.S. jobs data and a report that the ECB has modeled for up to EUR 1tln of Quantitative Ease (QE).

After today's data, the risk of an imminent Fed tightening has faded. Equities in the U.S. and Europe are mixed. The DAX is up and U.S. markets are lower. Next week will be a slow one for data news. The peripheral European bond prices are higher. U.S. equities are lower. The U.S. 10-yr was last at 2.72%, -4 bp.

london red 16:05 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

s&p. 1875/6 created a lot of problems below, so may support from topside. if below likely a deeper sell off

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:57 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

Cluster of daily USDJPY mvas are not until 102.34-85 so not running into key levels although probably needs told 103.00-20 to keep away from them. Correlations driving the JPY to state the obvious.

london red 15:51 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

yen long 33. second at 20/23 if seen. stop under 10 for lot.
euro stopped again. will resell move above 13707 in 10-12 area stop over 21.

GVI Forex Blog 15:34 GMT April 4, 2014
Week Ahead
• FOMC minutes watched for a clearer steer on Fed outlook

• MPC on hold, but policy debate becoming more nuanced

• China trade balance to bounce back into surplus, but factory gate inflation to fall further


GVI Forex Blog 15:30 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News
The March jobs report was a mixed bag of contrasting signals, although it did show private sector jobs have returned to their January 2008 peak. US Market Update: Choppy Trading Follows March Jobs Report, Nasdaq Choking

london red 15:11 GMT April 4, 2014
Sold crude 101.20

yen 103.35/20 buy zone. stop under 10
cable trying hard to re-reach my planned level(s) for short. would like 8250 to pop on eurgbp first to be honest as may drag cable higher. my 05 is going to be at risk so will try to sell on reaction to (if) 50 breaks on eurgbp.

london red 14:53 GMT April 4, 2014
Sold crude 101.20

looking at eurgbp for direction. below 8250 probably some sizeable stops. if run should take recent low and euro lower. if not run you have to look at next hour long tail on candle with a higher close

london red 14:51 GMT April 4, 2014
Sold crude 101.20

resold 90 stop at 13706 this time

tokyo ginko 14:45 GMT April 4, 2014
Sold crude 101.20

Added short 101.54

london red 14:45 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

euro stopped out

london red 14:37 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

eurgbp 8250 fib

london red 14:34 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

short euro 81 stop 93.

londonerd 14:30 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

thanks JM, aussie approaching 9310 biggie

NY JM 14:25 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

Red, that is the scenario for the month, until market focuses shifts to EZ inflation.

london red 14:23 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

100 day pierced but not held below. will buy 13665/70 if seen stop under 40.
fwiw april inflation rebound almost a given m/m due to seasonals so any risk will be an upside surprise. a way off yet though

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:23 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

4/4/2014 10:16:06 AM
(EU) ECB has reportedly modeled for up to €1T worth of bond purchases in the circumstance of QE with mixed results - Germany press
- Models indicate the bond purchases could raise inflation by anywhere between 0.2-0.8%
- Officials at the ECB are more inclined to move towards credit easing policies

- Source

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:20 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

From GVIForex

Friday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:18 GMT 04/04/2014 - My Profile
EURUSD just got hit on a German press report that ECB modeled up to EUR1 trillion in bond purchases.

The model is supposed to have shown varied QE results.

Report said ECB is leaning more towards credit easing policies.

Algos probably picked up on the headline rather than details but shows the vulnerable side.


GVI Forex john 14:05 GMT April 4, 2014
March 2014 Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)

Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Ivey PMI weaker than expected in March.

london red 14:02 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

last cable cover 70. re do at 05 then 15/20.

Mtl JP 14:01 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News

now the geniuses at Ontario NDP want ban on sales of Russian vodka ...

I smell a biz opp

london red 13:57 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

option cut out way soon. may just free up after. hope we can do either 21 or 80 again

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:53 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today


To put a squeeze on shorts 1.3730 would need to be taken out.

1.3691 guards the 1.3680 low but would need to take out 1.3730 to confirm it as a higher low.

Weaker EURJPY weighing on USDJPY and EURUSD as well. US equities giving back early gains, led by Nasdaq, which is in the red.

Otherwise focus stays on 1.37 to set its tone but how all markets close today is more important than intra-day chop.

Sums it up.

london red 13:50 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

just a hunch will buy yen at 103.50/3 for quick bounce if seen just ahead of hour. only in that timeframe.

london red 13:38 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

covered first cable 86. euro at 137 option level so may run course until top of hour. wanted 75 but didnt count on eurgbp weakness. stop on last cable short to 95. if stop hit will look to resell this time as close as poss to 05 then 15/20 with stops on all above 25

london red 13:24 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

eurgbp. was talk of some bidding interest in the week pre ecb at 8250. no idea if players still keen but imp level nevertheless. below and confirmed by break of recent low brings 8167 into play.
possibly will need euro to do 100 day ma as cable not looking strong enough to lead gbp side of pair.

Singapore SGFXTrader 13:23 GMT April 4, 2014
Time to Short AUD
Entry: 0.9285 Target: 0.91 Stop: 0.935

Firing the short for AUD

Cambridge Joe 13:17 GMT April 4, 2014
Sold crude 101.20

tokyo ginko 12:22 GMT

Thanks for the heads up. It's brilliant !

nw kw 13:15 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

aud/eur 4h support giving out +aud strength

london red 13:13 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

fwiw yen reaction did 23.6 retrace of recent run from sub 102 to 104. should not break if upside to take place. so if taken look for deeper correction. look for double tail on hourly if its to hold.
euro sub 13704 sees risk to JP's support again.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:09 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

More likely market caught the wrong way.

GVI Forex john 13:08 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

10-yr 2.75% vs. 2.80% beforehand on new doubts about U.S.?

Mtl JP 13:02 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

players already turned to mitigate (with Gold for example) week-end event risk

GVI Forex john 13:00 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

U.S. employment data continue to disappoint. We were supposed to start to see a catch up from the depressed winter weather, but nothing. See below, the data are not improving.

Month  ACTUAL  6mo avg
JAN13	119	171
FEB13	332	199
MAR13	142	199
APR13	199	206
MAY13	176	194
JUN13	172	190
JUL13 	 89	185
AUG13	238	169
SEP13	175	175
OCT13	200	175
NOV13	274	191
DEC13	84	177
JAN14	144	186
FEB14	197	179
MAR14	192	182

Cambridge Joe 12:59 GMT April 4, 2014

Lockerbie ck 12:15

Thank you again ! I was smarting somewhat at the epithet !

Cambridge Joe 09:34 GMT April 4, 2014
Cable: Reply
Cable buys into NY IMO. DYOD .


Cambridge Joe 07:33 GMT April 4, 2014
Game changer ?: Reply

USDX softening over the next few trading days IMO.


BTW, JP is as sharp as a tack and a very decent bloke! IMHO !

london red 12:58 GMT April 4, 2014
Who Had the Leak?

euro stop on last done. first cable sold 166 stop above 16625. first cover at 75. second sell at 16615/20 if seen stop as first.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:56 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

John nailed it with his

Your Best Trade Today
GVI Forex john 10:40 GMT 04/04/2014

See my video for levels on the upside.

Mtl JP 12:55 GMT April 4, 2014
Who Had the Leak?

remember that (biological) human eye starts to lose sight of individual frames and starts to see motion at only 30 flicks/second

london red 12:54 GMT April 4, 2014
Who Had the Leak?

out first here. tight stop under 21 fib for last. worried about about although no reason to not run higher aside from that.

london red 12:53 GMT April 4, 2014
Who Had the Leak?

have no time to look but euro possibly went a second or two as was watching that.
cable res 05/20 stops above. should be a trade.
big euro option 137 today should attract so even if 21 gets pierced would be hesitant ahead of cut.

GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT April 4, 2014
Who Had the Leak?

Gold and Silver did not move early this time.

GVI Forex john 12:51 GMT April 4, 2014
Who Had the Leak?

I watch a bunch of charts into the data and the S&P futures were the only one that spiked VERY early. I thought it meant the data were strong, but what they were saying is the Fed would be kept on hold.

Mtl JP 12:50 GMT April 4, 2014
Who Had the Leak?

yen players did
I was not watching Gold

GVI Forex 12:48 GMT April 4, 2014
Who Had the Leak?
Clearly S&P futures traders got a sudden good hunch 30-45 secs ahead of the data release, or perhaps they saw the data early????????????

HK [email protected] 12:47 GMT April 4, 2014
GOLD 1301

Amman wfakhoury 16:10 GMT March 28, 2014
GOLD: Reply
Amman wfakhoury 08:41 GMT 03/28/2014

Central Kwun 08:34 GMT 03/28/2014
1301.00 confirmed ..with poss to decline 1290.30
any decline will return to 1295.30


london red 12:45 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

mix of 1h 4h daily weekly plus old high lows work best. and of course not least standard ma's. no mumbo jumbo required. as i said before market loves history.

GVI Forex john 12:44 GMT April 4, 2014
March 2014 Canada Employment

Canada jobs stronger than expected.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:42 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Red, what time frame and levels are you using for your fib levels.

london red 12:40 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

yes if can crack 13707 then crack at 21 fib. can fail there but if taken see 45 ultimately 69 but above 30 have to be ready to sell it as number is ok in grand scheme just its wrong side of expectations for overall market today

GVI Forex john 12:40 GMT April 4, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Employment

Monthly jobs U.S.

Employment data stronger than forecast.

Click on chart for more than 10-yr history

Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:37 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

100dma variously at 1.3685-80, still support

Amman wfakhoury 12:37 GMT April 4, 2014
GOLD 1301
Gold 1301 reached our previous confirmed level

london red 12:34 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

covered here as expect rebound. afterall most expect well north of 200k

HK [email protected] 12:34 GMT April 4, 2014

Brian Jones predicts 275,000 workers were added to nonfarm payrolls in January, well above the 200,000 consensus estimate.

Now Mr. Brian Jones has to resign.

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT April 4, 2014
March 2014 Canada Employment


Jobs: +42.9K vs. +25.0K exp. vs. -7.0K prev.
Rate: 6.90% vs. 7.00% exp. vs. 7.00% prev.

RELEASE: StatCan Monthy Employment Report

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT April 4, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Employment

NFP Jobs: +192 vs. +195K exp. vs. +175K (r 197K) prev.
Rate: 6.70% vs. 6.60% exp. vs. 6.70% prev.

BLS: Employment Situation Summary

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

HK [email protected] 12:28 GMT April 4, 2014

Société Générale economist Brian Jones predicts 275,000 workers were added to nonfarm payrolls in January, well above the 200,000 consensus estimate

Read more:

Mtl JP 12:25 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

red 12:19 what u r seeing is feet shuffling and fingers quivering in this mexican standoff. cant let the buzzing of a fly distract

london red 12:25 GMT April 4, 2014
Sold crude 101.20

short euro luckily before that lot will tighten stop seconds before. just a play on a 250 plus number. a fail will give opportunity to work 25/45/69 levels on upside unless catastrophic nfp where have to long.

tokyo ginko 12:22 GMT April 4, 2014
Sold crude 101.20
Sold 101.20 for position play

london red 12:19 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

nearly there JP, looks like a fair bit of front running. unusual THIS early. normal happens in last minute.

Livingston nh 12:16 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

JP - last NFP day 10 yr spiked above 2.80 lvl but couldn't hold - reflex move on 250k jobs should push us to 2.87 // unemployment rate "target memories" may take over on a drop to 6.3% (strong economy pulls folks back into labor force so rate tends to rise for a bit) -- Jan fig was really BAD so still some catch-up to do

Mtl JP 12:16 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

today one could try trade the euro's 100dma

Lockerbie ck 12:15 GMT April 4, 2014

Cambridge Joe - Proverbs was really aimed at JP - didn't want to say directly something along the lines of " better to keep quiet and be thought a fool,...." regarding the "buy cable vs what" comment. Your response to explain cable was more restrained and much better.

I can't quite figure how to trade your short term direction suggestions but very happy to see them. I was long cable but closed for +5 as so slow before NFP.

Mtl JP 12:11 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

john "the news-readers on CNBC touting a +300K number" = 10-yr at 2.8%

someone has probably set the market up
but no guarantee

Q: where do expect the 10-yr yield to hit a high and where do u expect it to close today ? tia

GVI Forex john 11:48 GMT April 4, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Employment

HEADS-UP: Data (forum top)
EURUSD= 1.3705
GBPUSD= 1.6570
USDJPY= 103.92

US 10-yr= 2.80%
DE 10-yr= 1.62%
GB 10-yr= 2.76%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:56 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Video Market Update

EURUSD on the defensive, key levels to watch

Amman wfakhoury 10:56 GMT April 4, 2014
GBPUSD correction
only 16564 confirmed ..any rise above 16583 will return to it.
16544 not confirmed yet.

Amman wfakhoury 10:41 GMT April 4, 2014
GBPUSD 16544 confirmed
16565 yesterday confirmed and 16544 today confirmed both will be reached any rise above 16583 will return to it

GVI Forex john 10:40 GMT April 4, 2014
Your Best Trade Today
Coming into this week, the "clean" (before data) consensus for NFP today was either +190K or 200K. I saw both. Following data this week, i.e. ADP etc., the whisper number is now +225-250K.

I can't count how many times since 2009 that the markets have gotten set up for a strong number and have been disappointed, I'm not certain, but I think it has happened EVERY single time! The financial markets have very short memories. This could be the one time they finally get it right. I heard the news-readers on CNBC touting a +300K number earlier today.

Bottom-line, there is a lot of room for disappointment today, and keep in mind that this number is so highly anticipated that it is bound to leak. Keep an eye on gold and silver before the data, because they seem to be getting the data first.

One piece of advice, be careful when you play with the elephants, you might get trampled.

london red 10:26 GMT April 4, 2014

should be 13769 not 13760

london red 10:23 GMT April 4, 2014

cable res now 16605/20. if above should be seen as significant save.
nfp. think anything below 200k could disappoint. but if euro cannot regain 13760 (interim 45,25) on initial spike then it will probably go down eventually even on a 175-200k scenario. price action will be key in giving away where we go later on so those 3 levels need to be watched if market moves up. if nfp 230+ then good chance 13660/13690 support zone gets taken and bring 13580 and 200 day into view next week.
yen. sell 105 to 105.20 if seen. stop over 50. massive move this week with no real pullback plus big resistance. we will trade in this weeks range next week to some degree so odds strongly favour a sale at those levels if seen. this has nothing to do with trend just experience of how market trades. last week market traded just 30 points making a second similar week even less likely. admittedly such high dollar only likely on 275+ number but i always plan every scenario ahead as thinking during trading makes for bad decisions.

GVI Forex john 10:21 GMT April 4, 2014

Not me, I had to Google it.

Johannesburg HvW 10:17 GMT April 4, 2014

Well said John; spoken like a true gentleman.

GVI Forex john 10:14 GMT April 4, 2014

"Even a fool, when he holdeth his peace, is counted wise: and he that shutteth his lips is esteemed a man of understanding." -- Proverbs 17:28

Cambridge Joe 10:09 GMT April 4, 2014

Lockerbie ck 09:58 GMT 04/04/2014
Proverbs 17:28

Thank you my friend ! Duly noted.

The intention was simply to offer a view of possible outcomes.

GVI Forex Blog 10:05 GMT April 4, 2014
Global Markets News
Anticipation of a strong, USD-positive US payroll report expecting it to rebound from weather depressed readings EU Market Update: Markets await US Payrolls; Greece headed for an upgrade?

GVI Forex john 10:04 GMT April 4, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

Sorry German Factory Orders @ 11:00 GMT.
RE: the time changes AU and NZ move their clocks BACK for winter this weekend. I never can get the hang of their changes vs. GMT etc...

Cambridge Joe 10:00 GMT April 4, 2014

GBPUSD = Cable as far as I know... !

Signal from 30 min feed-back so... apart from NFP etc volatility could be looking for ~ 1.66

Should start to firm approx 11 GMT. IMO

Lockerbie ck 09:58 GMT April 4, 2014

Proverbs 17:28

Mtl JP 09:44 GMT April 4, 2014

Joe cable buys against ___ ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:42 GMT April 4, 2014
NFP Trading Scenarios

What NFP # would it take to send the dollar higher across the board?

What # would disappoint?

Cambridge Joe 09:34 GMT April 4, 2014
Cable buys into NY IMO. DYOD .

GVI Forex Blog 09:11 GMT April 4, 2014
U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data Awaited on the Open. Canadian Jobs Due Also
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: DE- Factory Orders, CA/US- Employment

The U.S. Employment on the open is the major event of the week. Any increase of jobs in March below +200K will be a disappointment. The street view now is for a gain of +225-250K. Of course no one can reliably predict this report. See the FOREX FORUM. for data releases, charts and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen..

U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data Awaited on the Open. Canadian Jobs Due Also

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT April 4, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are broadly lower ahead of what the markets expect will be a good employment report today. Ther is now a lot of room for disappointment. Equity markets are mixed as they await the jobs report.

Far East markets closed mixed in China and Japan. Europe is mostly higher. U.S. equity futures are up slighty, It is hard to say if this a "risk-on" session or not. The U.S. 10-yr is holding steady at 2.80%.

HK [email protected] 08:14 GMT April 4, 2014
Conflicting reports.

a) Ken Sims, from the University of Wyoming, said air and water samples taken from the world's largest volcano suggests it could be dying.
After measuring the acidity in water samples and radon in the air, they found that rather than erupting, the volcano may be on the verge of extinction, the Star Tribune reported.

This is contradictory to

b)Right now, the ground underneath Yellowstone National Park is rising at a record rate. In fact, it is rising at the rate of about three inches per year. The reason why this is such a concern is because underneath the park sits the Yellowstone supervolcano – the largest volcano in North America. Scientists tell us that it is inevitable that it will erupt again one day, and when it does the devastation will be almost unimaginable.

The whole idea is to prevent general public panic at the moment.
Because if anything serious is coming, people will follow the animals...out of the USA. God forbids.

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:13 GMT April 4, 2014
AceTraderFx Apr 4: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
04 Apr 2014 05:22GMT

USD's breach of 1055.7 confirms fall from 1089.9
(Jan) has finally resumed and further weakness toward
1051.3 is seen before the prospect of strong rebound.

Would not advise to chase this move and stand aside
ahead of U.S. jobs data. Above 1059.5, 1062.5.

FR 08:05 GMT April 4, 2014
Nonfarm Payrolls
For those living under a rock, it is US employment report day (and Canada employment and Ivey PMI day as well). The market is looking for some bounce back in the non-farm payrolls number after the winter disruptions have clearly plagued the US numbers to a degree in recent months. I suspect the risk is skewed to a stronger than expected reading well above 200k (Bloomberg expectations are just under 200k). The most interesting scenario would be a very strong number of more than 250k and the unemployment rate actually hitting the abandoned 6.5 percent US Federal Reserve threshold. Certainly, the stronger the number, the more it is likely to threaten the “pro-risk” currencies that are vulnerable to prospects for tighter liquidity. This is on the idea that the Fed would need to step up the tapering rhetoric and bring forward the timing of the first hike to as soon as the end of this year — certainly something the market is not prepared for at present. 250K might not be enough to bring that scenario into full gear, but 300k would certainly throw a grenade on the dance floor of the market’s assumptions about Fed policy (because Fed policy is reactive, anyway, and "firmly anchored" in the rear-view mirror).

Stay careful out there.

HK [email protected] 07:52 GMT April 4, 2014
Game changer ?

Eruption of this magnitude will bring down the whole world.

Amman wfakhoury 07:47 GMT April 4, 2014
Today pips move
GBPJPY 60-70 pips
AUDUSD 25-35 pips
GBPUSD 60-70 pips
EURUSD 60-70 pips
EURJPY 60-70 pips

Cambridge Joe 07:33 GMT April 4, 2014
Game changer ?
Yellowstone Animals Fleeing Park 'Raises Fears Supervolcano Set to Erupt'

USDX softening over the next few trading days IMO.

FR 07:32 GMT April 4, 2014
Nonfarm Payrolls
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hiring went into a deep freeze this winter as harsh weather slowed the economy. A warmer March has raised a key question for Friday's monthly jobs report: Did hiring rebound in March along with the temperatures?

Most economists think it did.

But some of the pickup in hiring will likely reflect a temporary bounce-back from the cold winter months. It may not be immediately clear how much of the job growth will endure.

Analysts forecast that employers added 195,000 jobs last month, according to a survey by FactSet. That would be the highest total in four months and up from 175,000 in February. The unemployment rate is predicted to fall to 6.6 percent from 6.7 percent in February.

Low temperatures and heavy snowstorms this winter closed factories, interrupted work at construction sites and kept consumers away from shopping malls. Hiring fell to an average of 129,000 jobs a month from December through February. That was sharply lower than the average of 225,000 in the previous three months.

Some economists project that a much larger job gain took place last month. That's largely because they think some hiring was delayed until March by the cold weather in January and February, thereby boosting March's job growth.

Drew Matus, an economist at UBS, predicts that employers added 250,000 jobs last month, though he thinks 50,000 to 75,000 of that total will reflect delayed hiring from previous months.

"There's more uncertainty around this number than usual," Matus said.

Leaving aside the weather effect, economists generally expect hiring to average about 200,000 jobs a month for the rest of the year. Hiring at that pace should lower the unemployment rate and support steady growth.

Most recent economic data suggest that the economy is picking up from the winter freeze.

Auto sales jumped 6 percent last month to 1.5 million, the most since November. That was a sign that Americans remain willing to spend on big purchases.

And surveys by the Institute for Supply Management, a group of purchasing managers, showed that both manufacturing and service companies expanded at a faster pace in March. Factories cranked out more goods and received slightly more orders, a good sign for future production. Service companies also received more orders.

Manufacturers added jobs, the ISM found, though at a slower pace than in February. But service firms, including hotels, restaurants, retailers and financial companies, sharply ramped up hiring in March. That mostly reversed a steep fall the previous month.

The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid rose last week but remained close to pre-recession levels. The four-week average of applications, a less volatile measure, stayed near a six-month low. That means companies are cutting fewer workers and might be hiring more.

Home sales and construction, however, have been weak in recent months. Sales of existing homes have fallen in six out of the past seven months. Cold weather has likely caused some of the decline. But higher mortgage rates, rising prices and a limited supply of available homes have also held back sales.

Many economists think growth slowed to a 1.5 percent to 2 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter, down from a 2.6 percent pace in last year's fourth quarter. But most also forecast that steady hiring and less drag from government spending cuts should lift growth to nearly a 3 percent annual pace for the rest of the year.

GVI Forex Blog 06:59 GMT April 4, 2014 Reply   
- (PH) PHILIPPINES MAR CPI M/M: -0.1% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 3.9% V 4.1%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 2.8% V 3.0% Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Asian Market Update: China regulators urge banks to conduct better management of NPLs after recent rise in bad loans - Source

HK [email protected] 05:37 GMT April 4, 2014
Written on March 22, 2014 at 4:06 pm by alpineski Forget Russia Dumping U.S. Treasuries … Here’s th

I just wonder if the Russian(like the Iranian) will demand gold as payment for anything their exports, how many banks and clients will be wiped out because of their inability to payback hypothecated and rehypothecated gold loans.

All deals in Ruble per one banker suggestion is just not practical and probably hard to execute.

The Fed too will find itself in a hard position to secure back the German gold.

Probably the US solution will be to close all it's gold exchanges, and declare illegal any international gold transaction with Russia: BUSTED!!!

bali sja 05:04 GMT April 4, 2014
Written on March 22, 2014 at 4:06 pm by alpineski Forget Russia Dumping U.S. Treasuries … Here’s th

like it or not, with or without problem with Russia, usd has lost its reserve currency status
if you are buying usd just because you are betting on it retain its reserve currency status then you are completely wrong

Syd 05:02 GMT April 4, 2014
Is Australia about to end negative gearing?
quarantining negative gearing losses would save the Budget around $4 billion per year initially, falling to a saving of around $2 billion per year over the longer-term
It would also remove some speculative demand from the housing market

this would help the RBA leave rates low

Syd 04:55 GMT April 4, 2014
Written on March 22, 2014 at 4:06 pm by alpineski Forget Russia Dumping U.S. Treasuries … Here’s th
Russia threatened to dump its U.S. treasuries if America imposed sanctions regarding Russia’s action in the Crimea.

Zero Hedge argues that Russia has already done so.

But veteran investor Jim Sinclair argues that Russia has a much scarier financial attack which Russia can use against the U.S.

Specifically, Sinclair says that if Russia accepts payment for oil and gas in any currency other than the dollar – whether it’s gold, the Euro, the Ruble, the Rupee, or anything else – then the U.S. petrodollar system will collapse:

GVI Forex Blog 03:15 GMT April 4, 2014 Reply   
The global markets are in a consolidation mode after the good rise earlier

Morning Briefing : 04-Apr-2014 -0315 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:05 GMT April 4, 2014
AceTrader April 4: Euro tumbles on Draghi's dovish comments
Market Review - 03/04/2014 23:06GMT

Euro tumbles on Draghi's dovish comments

The single currency tumbled against the greenback on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated the central bank is ready to use unconventional methods, if needed to battle low inflation in the region.

Mario Draghi, in his press conference, said 'recent information consistent with expectation of prolonged low inflation; to maintain accommodative monetary policy stance for as long as necessary; expects to keep rates at current or lower levels for an extended period of time; expectation based on subdued medium-term inflation outlook; inflation outlook based on weak economy, high degree of slack; we haven't finished with our non-conventional measures; all instruments fall within the mandate, including QE; we discussed the possibility of negative deposit rate; negative deposit rate received good deal of attention at today's discussion.'

Earlier in the day, euro traded sideways in Asia and showed muted reaction to ECB's decision to leave its rate unchanged at 0.25%. Despite a brief spike to session high at 1.3808 as Draghi began his press conference, the single currency tumbled to an intra-day low at 1.3698 in New York morning as the President said negative deposit rates were also considered.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback maintained a firm undertone throughout Asia and Europe on Thursday and rose to an intra-day high at 104.11 in New York morning. Later, price pared some of its gains and retreated to 103.82 before stabilizing.

The British pound rebounded to session high at 1.6661 in Asian morning before retreating to 1.6625. Later, cable re-tested 1.6661 in early European morning, however, price fell sharply 1.6581 after data showed a drop in UK services PMI. Cable later weakened to an intra-day low at 1.6570 in New York morning in tandem with euro before recovering.

U.K. Mar service PMI falls to 57.6 from 58.2 in Feb, weaker than the forecast of 58.2.

In other news, UK Chancellor of Exchequer George Osborne said 'must stay vigilant on household debt levels even as household assets rising more quickly than debt; not seen evidence that help to buy plan has bumped up house prices; foreign exchange manipulation issues are potentially very, very serious.'

On the data front, U.S. jobless claims rose to 326K from previous revised figure of 310K. Eurozone Feb retail sales came in at 0.4% m/m and 0.8% y/y, better than the forecast of -0.5% and 0.7%, previous reading are revised to 1.0% and 0.8% respectively.

Data to be released on Friday:

Germany factory orders, Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI, U.S. hourly earning, private payroll, non-farm payroll and unemployment rate.

Mtl JP 01:30 GMT April 4, 2014
NFP Trading Scenarios

Jay bond types are saying they are expecting a gangbuster print (270K or more) with 10-yr yielding 2.8%

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:48 GMT April 4, 2014
NFP Trading Scenarios
There is going to be a lull until NFP so how about sine NFP trading scenarios?

Consensus forecast is +200k but there have been some whisper numbers that are forecasting higher.

Feel free to suggest how the market might react to NFP

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:45 GMT April 4, 2014
Friday's Trading Outlook
EURUSD: 1.3740 was Thursday's Draghi press conference breakdown level (flipped to resistance) so the level that bears want to see hold to keep the risk on 1.37 and below. 1.3740-50 is a no man's land, 1.3750+ would be needed to neutralize the risk although only 1.38+ would negate it. Should be a limit on the upside ahead of NFP, new ball game afterwards. (as posted earlier on GVIForex)

nw kw 00:35 GMT April 4, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

xswiss bit week u/s weekly charts e/s,e/c


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