Miami JN 23:57 GMT April 9, 2014
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Master Zeus
Are you still bearish?
At what levels would you say your trade is not working?
Would your butane square on dips?
Livingston nh 22:26 GMT April 9, 2014
For consideration
Very interested in EUR/GBP comfort level of Carney
Livingston nh 22:15 GMT April 9, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
One unfortunate residue of the Bernanke regime is the dopey idea of inflation targets -- remember he came in with this idea -- now it seems every CB has adopted this as a goal // the current crop of morons on the FED (and other CBs) equate inflation as a function/consequence/cause of growth -- we shall see
Only a modicum of civility prevents my suggestion that these CB folks have the intellectual depth of a flatworm
Syd sf 22:07 GMT April 9, 2014
$yen
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when $yen dropped the first time Bot didn't buy but on the second drop into the low 70's it covered its shorts - and went 1 unit long from being 5 short .. it sold the unit at 97 and now has gone 1 unit short at 99.
just given the fact it's only holding a 1 Unit position - I'm doubtful $yen breaks out - and bit more of this sloppy trading.... bid at the top and offered at the low.
Livingston nh 21:53 GMT April 9, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Don't put too much emphasis on today's Minutes - big changes coming as new members join FOMC-- these folks are wrong more often than not, especially at turning points -- the economy calls the tune not the financial expectations -- BEHIND the CURVE (unless it's different this time)
GVI Forex john 21:27 GMT April 9, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
April 9, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tgurssday, April 10.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- Trade, AU- Employment, GB- Bank of England. US- Weekly
Jobless, 30-yr
- Far East: CN- Trade, AU- Employment.
- Europe: GB- Bank of England.
- North America: US- Import Prices, Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas, 30-yr.
GVI Forex Blog 20:39 GMT April 9, 2014
AUD and NZD
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Markets were jolted by the dovish FOMC minutes. US equities were boosted while US interest rates and the US dollar plunged in response. The minutes showed the committee was concerned markets could misconstrue its forecast shifts as implying less accommodation, and effectively tempered the notion that the Fed had recently turned more hawkish.
Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts
NY JM 19:59 GMT April 9, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
As I said earlier, it pays to stay alert and not be complacent when markets are quiet. You never know when...
Amman wfakhoury 19:58 GMT April 9, 2014
EURJPY
correction
pls read 141.37 iso 131.37
Belgrade Knez 19:55 GMT April 9, 2014
EURJPY
EURJPY
Amman wfakhoury 19:51 GMT 04/09/2014
Thank you.
Amman wfakhoury 19:51 GMT April 9, 2014
EURJPY
Reply
Belgrade Knez 19:20 GMT 04/09/2014
_______________________________
medterm 14100 wfakhoury directional level above it uptrend
below it downtrend
141.21 confirmed and already reached.if 1 hr bar closed above it 131.37 will be reached.if closed below it 14082 will be seen again.
london red 19:45 GMT April 9, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
seems market was looking for 6 months in the minutes. certainly acting like six months gone !
yen retests trendline from friday.
dc CB 19:34 GMT April 9, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
the big mover today was the 5y...coming off its flatner.
But didn't Yellen say 6 months at the Presser...which was After the meeting? Whatever happened to the fear raised by the Dots...they were in the minutes. Was this all a Kill the Shorts, Algo engineered Squeeze. On Stox, and on the 5 year.??
Livingston nh 19:22 GMT April 9, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Rubber meets the road here -- economy is not going to accomodate the Fed - inflation has to outstrip employment ( a simple interest rate function ) -- MAY is the testing period
Livingston nh 19:08 GMT April 9, 2014
For consideration
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Will the IMF fund the UKRAINE if Russia takes half?
Given the 600 mio pound switcheroo on trade w/ EU what is Carney's comfort level on EUR/GBP?
Will the Fed have to hike rates before TAPER is done?
Amman wfakhoury 19:03 GMT April 9, 2014
GBPUSD 120 pips move
16812 confirmed ..will be reached..any decline below 16772 will return to it.
london red 19:03 GMT April 9, 2014
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yen seems to be supported for now at 73 a previous low. eurjpy is doing better which is helping. trendline has already been rejected once so if below this low could be signal for run at 47/50 before 20.
Lahore FM 18:19 GMT April 9, 2014
" Trade Ideas "
Sell S&P
Entry: 1860.75 Target: 1800 Stop: 1875
sold now
PAR 18:14 GMT April 9, 2014
Us Economy
In the end, the Fed decided on an open-ended approach: That even after employment and inflation are nearly back to normal levels, short-term rates may need to stay unusually low for a while because the economy isn't fully healthy.
PAR 18:10 GMT April 9, 2014
Us Economy
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Us economy cannot perform as a normal market economy . The economy needs a perpetual liveline of support from the FED . This is becoming a soviet style plan economy .
Amman wfakhoury 18:06 GMT April 9, 2014
GBPUSD 120 pips move
Amman wfakhoury 15:18 GMT 04/09/2014
16772 confirmed will be reached.
----------------------
16772 reached
USA ZEUS 18:05 GMT April 9, 2014
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Added Short EUR/USD 1.3843
Added Short GBP/USD 1.6773
PAR 18:04 GMT April 9, 2014
Minutes
Reply
Perpetual low interest rates is the new reality .
GVIForex Jay Meisler 18:01 GMT April 9, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
nh, good call - minutes not hawkish
Livingston nh 16:25 GMT 04/09/2014
PAR 17:58 GMT April 9, 2014
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Yellen is a superdove convinced that the US economy is rather bad and that most americans are either unemployed or top earning investment bankers needing low interest rates . Anything Hawkish will never come out of these minutes
london red 17:35 GMT April 9, 2014
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thks JM. minutes up soon. trend for all three (eurusd gbpusd and usdjpy) seems higher but last fomc was a hawkish shock so really minutes should be expected in a similar vein hence usd firmer unless there is something between the lines. possibly why usdjpy making most distinct move pre minutes.
PAR 16:56 GMT April 9, 2014
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De facto Greek , Spanish , Italian Irish bonds are backed by the ECB and ultimately by the German taxpayer ( who doesnt know that ) .
A kind of Fannie May , Freddy Mac story bad bonds being backed by the Us taxpayer .
Lahore FM 16:53 GMT April 9, 2014
" Trade Ideas "
Buy usdx
Entry: 1.0884 Target: Stop:
long usd on usdcad 1.0884,usdchf 0.8824,eurusd long usd 1.3805.
Livingston nh 16:39 GMT April 9, 2014
USD/CAD
Reply
USD/CAD just broke thru wkly 21 sma -- on the daily 1.0812 beckons
Livingston nh 16:31 GMT April 9, 2014
He likes cash only.
RF - Putin still thinks dollars are ok as cash?
Livingston nh 16:25 GMT April 9, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
The 10 yr auction should show some profit for lucky buyers after the Fed Minutes -- pretty sure "6 months" won't show up in the well scrubbed minutes (but the "dots" will remain in the other material) // new FOMC govs for next meeting right before NFP (at least no messy press conference) - Honeymoon over in May
GVI Forex john 15:47 GMT April 9, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Late in European trade, prices in fixed income markets are now mostly weaker as U.S. shares are trading higher. European shares are closing mostly higher.
This has been a slow period for major data news, but the calendar picks up on Thursday. The peripheral European bond prices are mostly higher. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.70%, +2bp.
GVI Forex Blog 15:23 GMT April 9, 2014
Reply
April 9, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tgurssday, April 10. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- Trade, AU- Employment, GB- Bank of England. US- Weekly Jobless, 30-yr
GVI Forex Data Outlook for April 10, 2014
GVI Forex john 15:21 GMT April 9, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply
April 9, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, April 10.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- Trade, AU- Employment, GB- Bank of England. US- Weekly
Jobless, 30-yr
- Far East: CN- Trade, AU- Employment.
- Europe: GB- Bank of England.
- North America: US- Import Prices, Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas, 30-yr.
NY JM 15:19 GMT April 9, 2014
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Red. CNBC is talking about the demand for EUR assets, which is not a new story, but highlighted by the strong expected demand for the Greek bond issue.
I show 1.3845 and 1.3875 key levels, with 1.3850 most important if focus is to shift from 1.38.
1.3820 was the breakout level so why it is now pivotal.
Amman wfakhoury 15:15 GMT April 9, 2014
GBPUSD 120 pips move
Reply
Reday to move 120 pips.
16744 wfakhoury directional level.
london red 15:10 GMT April 9, 2014
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JM for me its 31 51 and 63 for euro as markers. On downside 13800 and 3780 then 60 which is judt above 200 hour
NY JM 14:58 GMT April 9, 2014
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I warned about being complacent. Bonnici's comments is what was needed to flush weak longs and setup a run through 1.3820 stops. This now becomes the pivotal level.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:25 GMT April 9, 2014
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This is what sent EURUSD back to 1.38. Typical ECB speak but news algos like the keywords.
4/9/2014 10:16:18 AM
(EU) ECB's Bonnici (Malta): There is no risk of deflation in the EMU, reiterates ECB takes the appreciating Euro into account in policy
- ECB can use non standard measures if necessary, ECB needs the ability to conduct sovereign or private asset purchases as part of the QE program
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Livingston nh 13:17 GMT April 9, 2014
Draghi the Magician
PAR - Beware of Greeks bearing gifts as Greece returns to bond market - "ah, welcome back. Been a while since your last haircut."
Sometimes they do ring a bell at the top
dc CB 13:14 GMT April 9, 2014
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the 10Y auction is the focus of the NYFed's trade desk today. even and steady with maybe a tab of fear.
When that's done, after 1PM, the market will trade a Re-Reading of what the FOMC said in the middle of March, at 2PM or sooner because we all know that the Minutes from LAST MONTH are under lock and key until exactly 2PM.
NY JM 13:04 GMT April 9, 2014
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Quiet markets are times to be alert as they are often followed by volatility. not saying it will happen today but it is still a time not to be complacent. With that said, as long as EURUSD and USDJOY hand around 1.38 and 102, market is trapped. Next key event is the FOMC minutes. So far 20 day mva has capped the EURUSD upside 2 days in a row but range has been very tight.
ottawa ottawa 12:24 GMT April 9, 2014
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I believe that you have to be a scalper working with 1-min charts to trade 6-9 pips in the euro and GBP...
not my style..taking the rest of day off, sunshine outside.
good luck all
Syd sf 12:06 GMT April 9, 2014
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Gold dropped $10 - the obvious trade is eur vs aud/cad imo
$yen targets 101.37 101.21 and 101.12
question is whether we see that or we push up to 102.58 and just chop our way up.
no idea myself - I just let the Bot do it's job .. see what it looks like in Asia tomorrow .. good hunting.
GVI Forex john 12:03 GMT April 9, 2014
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fwiw DAX and S&P correlation is amazingly tight today. S&P vs. USDJPY is diverging at this hour, but it almost always comes back into line by later in the day. S&P is ABOVE USDJPy.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:00 GMT April 9, 2014
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From a bank report (feel free to join the discussion)
I honestly don’t know what drives markets any more...
GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:40 GMT April 9, 2014
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Ottawa, EURUSD is +22 pips (last 1.3795) for the year-to-date in a market that was looking for 1.25 this year (year is still young but would probably take a signal from the ECB or a shift in US rate expectations for a green light trend). On the upside, above 1.40 is seen as problematic for policy makers so you can make the case that the high for the year is in at 1.3967 but would have to establish below 1.38 for that to be confirmed.
By the way, USDJPY is down over 3% so far this year in a market looking for 110 or higher.
Sums it up.
ottawa ottawa 11:17 GMT April 9, 2014
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market is unreadable...I can not figure out whether long or short...
GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:16 GMT April 9, 2014
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One of my favorite trading tips is to beware of tight ranges.
Notice how your emotional sentiment shifts (feels offered when below, bid when above) when EURUSD is trading above or below 1.38.
London Chart 11:09 GMT April 9, 2014
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The chart is very clear but hard bet is for a breakout
1.3818-20/1.3845/1.3875
Long time lurker
UAE AM 11:00 GMT April 9, 2014
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Is anybody betting on higher eur$ from here or are we all sitting on our hands?
GVI Forex john 10:30 GMT April 9, 2014
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Something I heard yesterday on CNBC is that statistically stocks tend not to close down for some reason on Tuesdays.
NY JM 10:28 GMT April 9, 2014
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Red, agree with your USDJPY levels. Yesterday I showed 102.25-30 as resistance as well although charts only show this as a minor level. There is also a former (minor) uptrendline broken yesterday that comes in around 102.22.
This is life in a low volatility market where we get the occasional day but for the most part it has been relatively tight ranges and false starts.
In any case, look for EURUSD 1,38 and USDJPY to set respective trading tones.
Key EURUSD resistance remais at 1.38290, 20 day mva capped the upside yesterday at 1.3812. This mva is at 1.3809 today
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:14 GMT April 9, 2014
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As I posted last night on GVIForex
Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:40 GMT 04/08/2014 - My Profile
As I said earlier, Wednesday is often a correction day so would not be surprised to see an up day for stocks.
GVI Forex john 10:11 GMT April 9, 2014
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Looks like they are trying to drive equities higher heading into the U.S. I pointed out yesterday that I have noticed over the decades that equities in the U.S. for some reason not like to follow the direction for overseas. So watch how U.S. trade after the open.
Equities are the tip off as to whether this will be a "risk-on" on or "risk-off" session.
GVI Forex john 08:46 GMT April 9, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are fairly evenly mixed. Again this is not clearly a risk on or off session yet as markets await the entry of North American dealers. Equity markets are mostly mixed. Far East markets closed mixed with China up and Japan down.
Europe is mostly higher. U.S. equity futures are higher. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.70% +2bp.
nw kw 07:27 GMT April 9, 2014
yen euro
might run xagjpy at support 4h chart
london red 06:54 GMT April 9, 2014
yen euro
Reply
rebounded overnight and has retaken 102.05 fib. while above here 25/30 possibly followed by 102.55/65.
euro. 80 support if broken brings 50/55 into play but shouldnt do too much until fed minutes
PAR 06:32 GMT April 9, 2014
Draghi the Magician
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Italian ,Spain near Us Yields.
Thanks to Draghi ,Italy and Spain can now borrow at yields normally reserved for triple A countries like the USA or Germany.
It reminds me of subprime bonds repacked as AAA securities .
Still demand for these bonds is phenominal as was demand for subprime mortgages.
As usual it will en in tears
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:58 GMT April 9, 2014
AceTrader April 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
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09 Apr 2014 02:52GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3789
The single currency pares yesterday's gain in Asian morning after yesterday's rally to 1.3812 in NY due to broad-based weakness in the greenback as many investors were closing their bets ahead of Fed's March meeting minutes later today.
Bids from various accounts are placed at 1.3780-70 n then 1.3755/50 with stops emerging below 1.3730. On the upside, offers from profit-taking are seen around 1.3800 with cross-related selling interest noted at 1.3805/10 and then 1.3820.
Germany will release trade data for Feb at 06:00GMT with forecast of an increase of trade surplus to 17.5B from 15.0B in previous month. However, exports and imports are expected to be -0.5% m/m and 0.1% m/m vs previous readings of 2.2% and 4.1% respectively.
to dk 02:31 GMT April 9, 2014
Asia
test
Syd sf 00:11 GMT April 9, 2014
Asia
my bot bought at 101.91 101.65 and 101.57
it sold out and went short just now .. I guess it's not seeing much more of a recovery on the day.
I was surprised by the o/n action myself - that late Crimea stuff and BOJ disappointment really upset a few people - despite stocks not doing a whole lot in the US.
don't really have much of a view myself at this point .. its alot harder when your not the one buying and selling all day getting into a groove with the markets.
many more chart points
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