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Forex Forum Archive for 04/14/2014

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GVI Forex john 21:19 GMT April 14, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

April 14, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, April 15. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar


  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: GB- CPI/RPIX, DE- ZEW Survey.
  • North America: US- CPI, TIC Data, NAHB, Fed Discount Minutes, API Data.

JERUSALEM KB 21:16 GMT April 14, 2014

Entry: 1.4642 Target: Stop: 1.4690

sell stop

JERUSALEM KB 21:15 GMT April 14, 2014

Entry: 1.4715 Target: 1.4515 Stop: 1.4815

sell limit

JERUSALEM KB 21:09 GMT April 14, 2014

Entry: audchf0.9330 Target: 0.9560 Stop: 0.9280


JERUSALEM KB 21:07 GMT April 14, 2014

Entry: 95.90 Target: 96.40-96.85 Stop: 95.60

bought now

Livingston nh 21:00 GMT April 14, 2014
Guardian, WaPo Win Pulitzer

More controversial - bringing this into the world of FOREX -- folks who are arguing that USD will disappear or lose status should keep in mind that "it's different this time" is one of the paving stones on the good intentions highway

Always bet the chalk because the odds are it ain't different this time

Livingston nh 20:54 GMT April 14, 2014
Guardian, WaPo Win Pulitzer

Nothing Changes because "it's different this time" is a punchline to a bad joke - Pentagon Papers

Nobody cares

dc CB 20:45 GMT April 14, 2014
Guardian, WaPo Win Pulitzer
The Washington Post and the Guardian won the Pulitzer Prize for public service, among the most prestigious awards in journalism, for their stories based on National Security Agency documents leaked by the former government contractor Edward J. Snowden.

Through a series of reports that exposed the N.S.A.'s widespread domestic surveillance program, the Post and The Guardian sparked an international debate on the limits of government surveillance, a formal review from the White House and promises from President Obama himself to limit the agency’s powers.

Pulitzer Prizes Awarded for Coverage of N.S.A. Documents and Boston Bombing

dc CB 20:31 GMT April 14, 2014
Tinfoil Hats on?
maybe, maybe not
BLM, Real Estate
first 11:30 contains it.

Fabian Calvo: BLM and Deals for Chinese Investors

Livingston nh 20:23 GMT April 14, 2014
Ukraine -- Market factor or not?

fwiw - maybe visit the Political Forum

Cambridge Joe 20:05 GMT April 14, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

CB thanks.

Possibility of a lift to c.79 .... (or more) and softer from there..... but sell... yes. Thanks for the heads up !

dc CB 19:56 GMT April 14, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Trade Idea: sell Crude

May WTI. hit 104.55 today. Contract exps Tues 22. Open Interest still high...but many have rolled to June, which is $1 lower.

Short week in US, NYMEX and Globex closed in Friday. Specs could make a rush for the exits and get screwed for being late on the roll.

Cambridge Joe 19:52 GMT April 14, 2014
AUSUSD HOD in place ? Think so. Sold for a few hours.... 9423 entry. Looks cool for London open methinks !


GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT April 14, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Livingston nh 19:20 GMT April 14, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

S&P just filled the opening gap (purists might quibble) -- it over 'til bond lady sings

Livingston nh 19:16 GMT April 14, 2014
Ukraine -- Market factor or not?

cb - state dept, DoD, CIA this is "so what, who cares" PUB RELATIONS // who(m) do I trust more? CIA, NSA, Homeland Security apparatchiks or Putin? hmm - ehh - hmm I'll have to get back to you

Mtl JP 19:13 GMT April 14, 2014
Ukraine -- Market factor or not?

this is how worrisome Noland's boy Yats and Biden's upcoming visit is: ahead of Biden CIA Director John Brennan arrived in Ukraine

dc CB 19:09 GMT April 14, 2014
Ukraine -- Market factor or not?

(Reuters) - The White House on Monday warned that Russia would face more "costs" for its interventions in Ukraine and confirmed that the director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, John Brennan, was in Kiev over the weekend.

"We don't normally comment on the CIA director's travel but given the extraordinary circumstances in this case and the false claims being leveled by the Russians at the CIA we can confirm that the director was in Kiev as part of a trip to Europe," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters.

White House confirms, downplays CIA director visit to Kiev

GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT April 14, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands

GVI Forex Blog 18:53 GMT April 14, 2014
Solid Economic Data News from Eurozone and U.S. Monday. Active Calendar Tuesday

Early Monday, Eurozome Industrial Production were stronger than expect. Later U.S. retail Sales data outperformed and the two data reports give equities a lift.See the FOREX FORUM. for comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

Solid Economic Data News from Eurozone and U.S. Monday. Active Calendar Tuesday

Livingston nh 18:29 GMT April 14, 2014
Ukraine -- Market factor or not?

A billion USD to the Ukraine is about 2 wks worth of debt to Putin's energy folks - nobody is gonna save eastern Ukraine -- BUT can the holders of UKRAINIAN debt use this as a chance to unload (Hurry up, please; it's time)

GVI Forex john 18:27 GMT April 14, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are ending mixed to higher as a stronger late day performance by equities erased earlier gains. The peripheral European bond prices remain mostly higher.

Equity markets today are mostly higher n the U.S., while European bourses closed mixed. Far East markets closed mixed to weaker. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.65%, +2bp.

dc CB 18:23 GMT April 14, 2014
Ukraine -- Market factor or not?

WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew announced the signing of a $1 billion loan guarantee agreement for Ukraine. This guarantee, when completed, will complement the Government of Ukraine's International Monetary Fund (IMF) reform program and underscores the United States' commitment to Ukraine.

WTI is @ $104...who pays for both. Energy companies rule the world thru extortion. How could it not be clearer.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 18:18 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Entry: Market bias is down as long as it stays below 1.3835 Target: Stop:

This worked today although range has been small.

Above 1.3835 would see 1.3850 reassert as a magnet

Livingston nh 18:08 GMT April 14, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Watch 10 yr yield for a clue to stox - lunchtime rally over - can stox hold on or will Turnaround Tuesday strike them down // Ukraine is not a factor until money to EU banks and Russian energy company becomes an issue

Mtl JP 17:20 GMT April 14, 2014
Ukraine -- Market factor or not?

Biden is coming to have a word with Nuland's boy Yats
odds are to try to cool and control the eager beaver from putting "the west" into an embarrassing situation

HK [email protected] 15:49 GMT April 14, 2014
Welcome to our territory:)

US military officials say a Russian attack warplane engaged in 'provocative action' when it buzzed the US Navy guided missile destroyer Donald Cook in the western Black Sea on Saturday, April 12 - @NBCNews

NY JM 15:44 GMT April 14, 2014
Ukraine -- Market factor or not?
Global jitters may be seen in EURCHF but not in other places, with US equities up strong and European equities recovering some of the earlier losses.

Firmer cross could also reflect EUR easing speculation after ECB verbal intervention.

To sum up Ukraine is a cloud but not a major market factor.

Mtl JP 15:44 GMT April 14, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

later this eve : RBA puts out Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
could be ringing dovish

GVI Forex Blog 15:09 GMT April 14, 2014
Global Markets News
Jawboning by Draghi and then by ECB's Noyer this morning have forced EUR/USD away from the 1.3900 handle, while the US equity rebound plus the better retail sales report have also helped strengthen the dollar. US Market Update: Monday Morning Rebound

GVI Forex john 14:11 GMT April 14, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

April 14, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, April 15. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar


  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: GB- CPI/RPIX, DE- ZEW Survey.
  • North America: US- CPI, TIC Data, NAHB, Fed Discount Minutes, API Data.

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT April 14, 2014
February 2014 U.S. Business Inventories

+0.40% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.40% (r n/a) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:58 GMT April 14, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

U.S. 10-yr 2.628% 0bp.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:38 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

On the other side, upside is limited as long as below 1.3835 (as per my video update)

tokyo ginko 13:30 GMT April 14, 2014

Noland's boy Yats is a spoil brat who expect that Ukraine can change overnight. By trying to eradicate Russian even as a second language, (naive to think that there is no Russian living in Ukraine). A 39-year old , a young hot blood, too eager, too impatient, disrespectful to Putin in all ways, sending his country to ruin, now expecting UN solders to standby his inexperience and folly?

USA ZEUS 13:21 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

HK Kevin 13:16 GMT 04/14/2014

Thanks friend. Best trades to you!

Mtl JP 13:20 GMT April 14, 2014

Noland's boy Yats now demanding UN's "peacekeepers"

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:17 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

JP, so far 1.3807 = 20 day mva so far capping downside.

HK Kevin 13:16 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

USA ZEUS 01:28 GMT, good trades. Like one of the very few senior members said before , it's called money in the pocket trades.

USA ZEUS 13:12 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

USA ZEUS 01:28 GMT April 10, 2014
GBP/USD All-in More than triple short at 1.6817
Same for EUR/USD at 1.3864

Massive gains.

GVI Forex john 12:50 GMT April 14, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Retail Sales

U.S. Advance Retail Sales. Stronger than expected.

Mtl JP 12:40 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

bit of eur support at 1.3795

GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT April 14, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Retail Sales

+1.10% v +0.80% exp. v +0.30% (r +0.70%) prev.
Ex-Auto: +0.70% v. +0.40% exp. v. +0.30% prev.
Ex-Auto/Gas: +1.00% v +0.50% exp. v +0.30% (r +0.40%) prev.

PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:26 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Interesting, I've been watching the USDJPY vs. S&P (e-mini) futures for a while now and I've noticed that this time of year that the correlation trade trade often does not kick in until around 11:00 GMT. I wonder if that is when some of the algo traders are switched on?

BTW we follow S&P minis rather than the S&P contract because the S&P mini is much more heavily traded than the full contract because the "full" contract is too large.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:15 GMT April 14, 2014
U.S. Dollar Index is a Joke
Check out this article

U.S. Dollar Index is a Joke

nw kw 12:02 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

germons stopped blocking QE so sell eur

GVI Forex john 11:11 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

In terms of possible ECB monetary reactions to deflationary pressures, two possibilities stand out. The first is a risk of negative interest rates and the second could be Quantitative Ease. the consensus view is that QE would be seen by many in the policy board as likely ineffective and complicated eventually to reverse. Negative interest rates in the past have not been terribly effective also, but they would be easy to reverse with a stroke of the pen. Most are focused on the June ECB meeting as the most likely opportunity for a policy change.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:59 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

John, I cover all of this in my daily forex outlook video update. if you want to see today's video, send me an EMAIL

GVI Forex john 10:47 GMT April 14, 2014
Your Best Trade Today
I am trying to figure out what Draghi was up to over the weekend when he said that a stronger EUR could cause the ECB to react. ECB chiefs have tended to shy away from forex comments due in part to a fear of unintended consequences. You never know what the markets will react to.

On balance the EURUSD reaction has been modest and this may be indicative of the steady EUR demand we have been seeing recently. Personally I feel it was a rate protest with EURUSD last week moving steadily in the direction of the 1.40 line. A rising currency is deflationary in the same way a tight monetary policy can be. Some central banks, such as the SNB, use forex policy as a monetary policy tool. To combat disinflation, the SNB has successfully put a floor on the EURCHF exchange rate.

This is a holiday-shortened week, so a lot of the economic data has been front-ended. This goes for some of the monthly data as well. The market focus as usual wil be on stocks.

GVI Forex Blog 10:18 GMT April 14, 2014
Global Markets News
The EUR/USD was relatively steady during the European morning after gapping down some 40 pips in Asia following the Draghi's weekend comments. Dealers noted that the stepped up talk by ECB members still had to yet declare that QE was imminent. Financial press articles on ECB measures suggested that next step would be to adopt a negative deposit rate, perhaps as soon as the June meeting. EU Market Update: Conflicting ideas if Greece will need more financial assistance after return to markets; Ukraine warns Russia to get out

GVI Forex john 09:10 GMT April 14, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are broadly higher as worries about European disinflation highlighted by comments by Draghi over the weekend, and a heating up of the Ukraine situation take their toll. The peripheral European bond prices are mostly higher.

Equity markets today are mostly lower. Far East markets closed mixed to weaker and Europe is weak. U.S. equity futures are lower. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.62% -1bp.

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT April 14, 2014
February 2014 Eurozone Industrial Output

mm: vs. +0.2% exp. vs. -0.10% (r 0.0% ) prev.
yy: vs. +1.70% exp. vs. +2.20% (r +1.60%) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

HK [email protected] 08:33 GMT April 14, 2014

The Ruskies are waiting too long. Y no Ukrainians around?

Journalists on the ground in Sloviansk, however, said that there were no signs of a large-scale anti-terrorist operation thus far.

Probably the Ukr. soldiers have already defected to the Ruskies side.

MV YG 08:24 GMT April 14, 2014

There is al risk that Roissan soldiers will run away when they see that their advantage is less than 20:1
Mr Larvov already called RF spetznas "desperate citizens"

Central Kwun 08:21 GMT April 14, 2014
still no news on ukraine?

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:29 GMT April 14, 2014
AceTrader Apr 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Apr 2014 05:28GMT

EUR/USD - 1.3854.. Whilst ECB President Draghi n fellow policymakers ratcheted up their rhetorics over the w/end on recent euro's strength, in a rare move for the usually soft-spoken Japan's FinMin Taro Aso, he told the IMF panel by drawing on Japan's own experience of a protracted period of deflation - directly warned the euro zone about the dangers of falling prices.

Aso said "Based on our experience, once a deflationary mindset takes hold, it is easy to fall into a vicious cycle, whereby people start to postpone consumption n investment, leading to further deflationary pressures". There are striking parallels between 1990s Japan n the euro zone's plight now: weak bank lending, fragile economic growth, a rising exchange rate, n the central bank's insistence that deflation is not on the horizon.

While Japan has been mired in deflation for most of the last 15 years, the price declines in the early years were so mild that the BoJ was slow to acknowledge deflation had set in. That is why Japanese policymakers warn against complacency even if, as Draghi points out, long-term inflation expectations in the euro area appear to remain "well-anchored."

German FinMin Schaeuble says 'Ukraine is the greatest geo-political risk facing the economy by a great margin; further euro strengthening could have negative effect on economy; says Draghi made a convincing case at IMF meeting that Europe's low inflation rates hold no deflation fears; no signs at all of deflation spiral in Europe.'

Syd 07:01 GMT April 14, 2014
ECB's Noyer: Weaker Euro Requires "Accommodating" Policy -Report
A weaker euro is desirable and requires an "accommodating" monetary policy, European Central Bank governing council member Christian Noyer said Monday in an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro.

"The weakening is desirable," he said. "The stronger the euro is, the more accommodating the monetary policy needs to be."

Mr. Noyer, who is also governor of the Bank of France, said the "abnormally" strong euro isn't due to the ECB's monetary policy but to the capital inflows to the euro zone as investors flee emerging markets. He said the stronger demand outside the euro zone than within also contributes to the strong euro.

The ECB has a series of monetary policy tools to raise inflation rate towards its 2% medium-term target such as sovereign and bank asset purchases, lower interest rates and additional "forward guidance", Mr. Noyer said, according to the newspaper. "The question is to know whether we need to act and when."

Mr. Noyer's comments echoed those of ECB President Mario Draghi, who warned Saturday that further euro strengthening would trigger additional monetary easing to keep inflation from falling too low.

Syd 06:53 GMT April 14, 2014
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is on track for its biggest fall in three weeks
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is on track for its biggest fall in three weeks as investors step aside amid U.S. tech sector weakness and growing geopolitical uncertainty in Ukraine. "There appears to be a buyer's strike as the market is falling on very light volume," says CMC Markets chief market strategist Michael McCarthy. "We still have a lot of uncertainty about the U.S. tech sector and Ukraine, so it's understandable, but a little disappointing that we haven't seen any bargain hunting today.

GVI Forex Blog 06:44 GMT April 14, 2014 Reply   
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 58.3 V 52.8 PRIOR (6-year high) - (SG) SINGAPORE Q1 ADVANCED GDP Q/Q: 0.1% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.1% V 5.4%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB CREDIT CARD PURCHASES: A$2 Asian Market Update: Stocks fall as emergency session of UN Security Council fails to resolve Ukraine tensions - Source

HK [email protected] 06:31 GMT April 14, 2014

That some of the Ukrainian army will join the Russian army in the east LOL.

HK [email protected] 06:25 GMT April 14, 2014

Wat du yu tink, dat the Okrainian army is waiting with a clock in deir hands to begin WWIII???

Patience needed.

bali sja 06:21 GMT April 14, 2014

nah, all talks, they dont have money to pay their soldiers

Central Kwun 06:14 GMT April 14, 2014
Ukraine Govt starts to fight back or not?

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:34 GMT April 14, 2014
AceTrader April 14: Dollar steadies on minor short covering ahead of 3-day IMF/World Bank spring mee
Market Review - 12/04/2014 00:57GMT

Dollar steadies on minor short covering ahead of 3-day IMF/World Bank spring meetings

The greenback pared intra-day losses versus its major peers as investors trimmed recent short dollar positions ahead of the 3-day IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington which began on Friday.

Although dollar briefly weakened to a fresh 3-week low of 101.32 at Tokyo open, bargain hunting by Japanese importers lifted the pair to 101.87 in Europe. Despite a brief retreat to 101.37, dollar maintained a steady undertone in NY session and last traded at 101.63 near Friday's close.

BOJ governor Kuroda said Japan only halfway through meeting BOJ's price target; told G20 Japan making steady progress toward achieving BOJ's price target with positive economic mechanism working; BOJ ready to adjust monetary policy as needed if achievement of its price target comes under threat.

Euro penetrated Thursday's high of 1.3900 and rose briefly to 1.3906 in European morning on Friday due to dollar's broad-based weakness, however, profit-taking pressured price to 1.3864 in New York morning before rebounding after ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann downplayed deflation concerns in eurozone.

Weidmann said 'the risk of broad deflation in the eurozone is very low; expects economy in eurozone to pick up n inflation rate to gradually increase; at the ECB we have made clear that we will react effectively to long-term low inflation; in the case of long-term low inflation, any unconventional monetary policy measures by the ECB would have to fulfill many conditions.'

The British pound weakened versus U.S. dollar after the release of lower-than-expected U.K. construction output, which came in at -2.8% and 2.8% versus forecasts of 2.1% and 5.7% respectively, together with the selloff in U.K. equities. FTSE-100 fell by 1.2% whilst Germany's DAX and France's CAC-40 closed down by 1.6% and 1.2% respectively. Cable declined from 1.6787 to 1.6717 on Friday before recovering.

Data to be released next week :

Italy HICP, EU industrial production, U.S. retail sales, business inventories on Monday.

Australia RBA's April minutes, U.K. BRC sales like for like, CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS house price, Germany Zew current situation, survey expectation, EU Zew survey expectation, trade balance, U.S. Empire manufacturing, CPI, Redbook retail sales, Net long term TIC, Total Net TIC, NAHB housing market index, Canada existing home sales on Tuesday.

New Zealand CPI, Australia leading index, China business climate, entrepreneur confidence index, retail sales, Industrial production, GDP, , Italy trade balance, current account, EU CPI, U.K. claimant court, weekly earning, unemployment rate, EU CPI, U.S. housing starts, building permits , industrial capacity utilization, Canada rate decision on Wednesday.

New Zealand consumer confidence, Australia Business confidence, Japan consumer confidence, Germany PPI, EU current account, Canada CPI, U.S. jobless claim, Philadelphia Fed Business outlook on Thursday.

No major economic data is released on Friday. New Zealand, Australia, U.K. Germany, Swiss France, U.S. and Canada financial markets are closed due to Easter Good Friday holiday.

KL KL 00:23 GMT April 14, 2014

ha ha...out 5/6 AUSUSD short at .94015..... now can move higher with more powerful and bigger chuncks for a good whack down!!.....LOL

sometimes make a few pips is good when it is in big chunks.....LOL

KL KL 00:17 GMT April 14, 2014
sell .9405...... ..keep adding every 1-4 pips worries...she'll be right......glgt...DFM...DYOR...imvho,,,


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