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Forex Forum Archive for 04/15/2014

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nw kw 23:40 GMT April 15, 2014
$yen

The latest month of TIC data showed China’s holdings of Treasurys decreased by $2.7 billion in February, while Japanese holdings increased by $9.1 billion. Altogether, foreign official and private accounts bought $92.5 billion in Treasurys in February, the most in nearly two-and-a-half years. Some strategists suggested the large increase stems from a flight to quality securities as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia ramped up

GVI Forex john 22:00 GMT April 15, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


April 15, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, April 16. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, GB- Employment, EZ- Final HICP (CPI), Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada Decision

  • Far East: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP.
  • Europe: GB- Employment, EZ- Final HICP (CPI).
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Weekly Crude, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada Decision.


Cambridge Joe 21:17 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

SnP HOD in place IMO. 19.3 ?

Cambridge Joe 21:16 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

SnP HOD in place IMO. 19.3 ?

Cambridge Joe 21:03 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

USDX softer thru Asia into London. IMO. GL

syd sf 21:03 GMT April 15, 2014
$yen
Reply   
the best price you could have bought audyen yesterday in asia was around 95.60 and its moved back to test ard 95.50 after dropping overnight.

so I have a hard time thinking it's going to rally much today .. once Asia comes in past 50-65 .. which would be a good guide as to bullish vs bearish going forward.

once again my bot is selling out what it bought lower in $yen and its gone short again.

nw kw 20:55 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

NZD Consumer Prices Index long n/jpy

Mtl JP 20:41 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Rosengren:
- A 5.2% unemployment rate would be near full employment
- Recent data consistent with a slowly improving economy, but concerns that scars from the recession that have changed consumer and business spending habits
- Fed's Forward Guidance Should Be Linked to Employment, Inflation Data -- WSJ Blog
- Urges Data-Linked Policy Guidance


GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT April 15, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:22 GMT April 15, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


Paris ib 19:19 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

nh - nice summary. You would think that the chinless deviants in Europe might know that. They act as if they don't. Hard to trade this one as there are so many weirdos involved and so many hidden agendas. Not least of which is Soros's mega put on the U.S. stock market. Not everyone wants this to quietly die as an issue.

GVI Forex Blog 19:14 GMT April 15, 2014
"Risk-Off" trade due to Ukraine Trumps Economic Data Tuesday. Busy Wednesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, GB- Jobs, EZ- Final HICP (CPI), Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production Capacity Utilization, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada

About mid-morning Tuesday in N.Y. the markets started to react negatively to mounting tensions in Ukraine by moving into a "risk-off" posture. This move was exacerbated by the upcoming holiday period starting at the end of this week.

"Risk-Off" trade due to Ukraine Trumps Economic Data Tuesday. Busy Wednesday

Livingston nh 18:56 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

fwiw -
"The takeaway is this: the Ukraine bloc owes the EU banks anywhere from $540 to $760 billion, depending on how you measure it. And the EU banks and large parts of its economy as a whole financed this loan by essentially borrowing all of it from Russia. If the West tried to clamp down on or seize Russian official assets or private flight capital, or if it otherwise took actions that destabilized the ability of these countries to service their debts, the losers would be in Kiev, Vienna, Milan, and Frankfurt—and not in Moscow."
LINK

Mtl JP 18:44 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

john J Lew is got to be smiling: 30-year bond yields 3.46%
This puppy is going to cause some pain to holders in not too distant future. Certainly massive pain over the next 29 years.

GVI Forex john 18:04 GMT April 15, 2014
U.S. Discount Rate Minutes
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
No change. Three banks still request rate hike- Source TTN


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 17:59 GMT April 15, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

A major data release Wednesday will be final March CPI data. The flash HICP was +0.50% y/y. The ECB is one of the few central banks that targets the all-items CPI. Typically, the final HICP reading does not change much from the flash estimate.

It is in response to this report that pressure on the ECB to ease has been mounting.

Mtl JP 17:58 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

ya . acceptance is liberating (not to be confused with approval)
indignation burns you; makes u miserable

Paris ib 17:56 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

Easier? Really?

Mtl JP 17:53 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

ib 17:13 when u realize and accept that politics, for the big majority, is a fashion runway for the scumbags of humanity things will be easier on you

Mtl JP 17:45 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

actually sofar it is the other way around:
usdyen bouncing off 101.50 => S&P follows

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:34 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

So mark down 101.50 and 2.60% (10-year) as one correlation point. Stocks bouncing off lows => USDJPY follows

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:28 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

JP, I know how to get you worked up.

Suffice it to say that 101.50 is a sloppy zone but one where there will be BOD in the lower portion unless 101.50 cracks. Content with hit and run trading this week.

Correlation algos driving USDJPY

Mtl JP 17:24 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

there is very little more annoying that answering a Q with a Q
-
c Mtl JP 15:36

eu pat 17:24 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

mess))... controled...holding short...tight sl 101,82.

eu pat 17:20 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

First, you need to look at the Ukrainian history. U.S. along with some EU countries, to promote nationalism to Ukraine. Russians will not tolerate fascists to historical territory. Certainly no one wants to international conflict .. but starts to shoot to the Russians, so it's more serious than you think. Or will divided Ukraine to the east and west and will continue the cold war (Russia, China, India) against the West, or the conflict spreads ..

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:20 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Did you?

Mtl JP 17:20 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

d'u buy 101.50 ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:18 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Held 101.50

Paris ib 17:13 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

Case in point. Not necessarily the most deviant. And we actually PAY these people. Hard to believe.

Catherine Ashton

Paris ib 17:07 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

JP begs the question really: is Carney a chinless deviant?

Mtl JP 17:05 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

marketwatch:
Carney: U.S. looking at ways to support Ukraine
White House sees no military solution to Ukraine
White House: Ukraine situation dangerous, volatile
-
DJ down by +/- 110 points, only -0.7%, S&P by about same %-age

Paris ib 17:05 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

Yeah the psychos in the media need to be reigned in. This whole Ukraine debacle has been one big miscalculation. First they were going to join the EU, didn't happen, they went with Russia, so then they have a right-wing coup which ousts the elected Government, lets the criminals out of jail (the lady with the braids) and voila' it's back on: pro-West, pro-EU regime in the Ukraine. Like who cares? Which chinless deviant cares that the Ukraine is or is not pro-EU or not? Nobody on the ground in the EU gives a hoot. But the deviants keep going with their weirdo war plans which we are supposed to support and even finance. Yeah really. Pass the sick bucket.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:03 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

I saw one view that the G10 meeting gave Putin a green light with no mention of the Ukraine and a reluctance of Europe to step up sanctions.

As John noted, this is occurring in a week where liquidity is thin and will get thinner.

US stocks getting hit, Netflix, as an example, is -30% in past 6 weeks.

US 10-year yield just below 2.60%

USDJPY is not only highly sensitive to equities but to US yields.

philly caba 17:00 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

No casualties (yet) there. More media hyped stuff.

Paris ib 16:57 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

Oh right: show of force, warships and so on is just a bluff then? Maybe you are right. Don't know. If it's a bluff then it's plain stupid. And the U.S. will come out of this with even more egg on its face. What is the game plan? Surround Russia with NATO nuclear missiles? What for? What exactly is the U.S. issue? It's like you are fighting a war which is already over. Either that or you're not and it's just starting. Only two possible outcomes: either the U.S. loses or we all do.

eu pat 16:55 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

They done it yet...will be suprised later on...Nobody can step everywhere..It is dangerou play this time and wrong step...Its more than gambling...

Paris ib 16:54 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

JP You gotta ask: who are the deviants who set that up?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:54 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

Supplying and a show of force with ships is not the same as sending troops. Zero chance the US would send troops other than as part of a UN peacekeeping force and even then there is no stomach for another quagmire. Danger seems to be an increase in sanctions and a mini Cold War.

Mtl JP 16:52 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

on a (not so) joyful note: between Vlad and 0 there is a surplus of some 16,000 nukes of which at least 2,000 are on hair-trigger (less than 2 minutes to takeoff)

Paris ib 16:52 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Obama is a serious concern. Mental competency of some kind appears missing. And Kerry is downright creepy.

Paris ib 16:50 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

So why did they send the war ships? And why is the U.S. planning to supply arms to the Neo-Nazis currently in charge in the Ukraine? What is the game plan here?? Seriously can you explain to me what is going on?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:49 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline

US is not going to get into an armed conflict with Russia.

Paris ib 16:48 GMT April 15, 2014
Love the Headline
Reply   
"Russian forces spotted on ground in eastern Ukraine"..... my first reaction: oh yeah, by whom?

Beating the war drums out there. What do they hope to achieve? Will the U.S. go bankrupt by rushing into yet another conflict, forcing troops to head home on foot when the money runs out, like the guys in Eastern Germany when the Soviet Union folded? Sad really.

eu pat 16:47 GMT April 15, 2014
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sell...before was setup up...but Ukraine change it.Now U.S guys only control it to not fall ...It will hapend...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:46 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Or ask the question whether it is Ukraine or some other factor weighing on stocks and boosting bonds. Wind has been coming out of high flying stocks (Nasdaq is getting close to a 10% correction). .

GVI Forex john 16:41 GMT April 15, 2014
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As for what you buy or sell? Anyone have any suggestions? My strategy would be to hunker down until the dust starts to clear.

Honestly, I think the largest unknown in this situation is President Obama. Its hard to know how he will respond to increased tensions. I don't think he is predictable, because he has no clear policy.

GVI Forex john 16:36 GMT April 15, 2014
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10-yr tests below 2.60% last 2.603%. I never thought we would see these levels again after the "tapering" started.

Livingston nh 16:26 GMT April 15, 2014
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JM - I have kids like that

John - Putin poses unknowable risk but seems to me Draghi did more damage to EUR -- Eastern European currencies have taken the brunt so far // of course, if this turns into a shooting war .... but Ukraine doesn't seem interested

Mtl JP 16:23 GMT April 15, 2014
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so IF you are in for a Civil War, what do we sell and what do we buy ?

eu pat 16:22 GMT April 15, 2014
usd/jpy
Reply   
ok I closed my long for minus 12 pips and turned short....to take my monay back from this mess)))

dc CB 16:21 GMT April 15, 2014
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There will be an attempt to neutralize the sell of in Stox going into the Easter weekend.

The talk around the dinner table should NOT be about "should we sell out this week?".

imho. it remains to be seen if the Bots can pull it off.

NY JM 16:17 GMT April 15, 2014
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It would be like the guest who comes to dinner and moves into your house.

Mtl JP 16:15 GMT April 15, 2014
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would "restore order" be not be preferable to a civil war ?
who is against "restore order" ?

GVI Forex john 16:11 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

To give credit where credit is due, HK RF alerted us all to the deteriorating political situation in Ukraine over the weekend. Its looking like an al out civil war is developing and that could provide Russia with a pretext for stepping in to "restore order" and no one would be able to do anything about it.

So clearly now we are in a "risk-off" posture heading into the long holiday week-end. NO rational trader will be willing to run a "risk" position when trading conditions will be thin.

Any ideas??



Livingston nh 16:07 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

JP - the Ndx and Rut (the focus of the correction) have already taken out the Friday and Monday lows // you're right about SPX but it may get dragged down further if the other two keep falling

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:07 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

USDJPY key support is 101.30-40 with 101.50+ needed to keep a bid and away from key levels. 101/18 and 100.73 are key/major levels

Mtl JP 16:05 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

usdyen resisting S&P's swan call atm
see who ll win the tug-of-war

GVI Forex john 16:04 GMT April 15, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are ending higher due to political instability in Ukraine. The peripheral European bond prices are higher.

As a result, European bourses are trading lower. Key Equity markets are lower as of this hour. Far East markets closed mixed earlier. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.62%, -1 bp.


Mtl JP 15:59 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

usdyen 101.50 matches up with S&P's 1814.50-ish which currently is a 2x bottom (and support so-far) on the hourly

GVI Forex john 15:40 GMT April 15, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

Wednesday looks like a pre-holiday data dump...

GVI Forex Blog 15:39 GMT April 15, 2014 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, GB- Employment, EZ- Final HICP (CPI), Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada Decision Far East: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP. Europe: GB- Employment, EZ- Final HICP (CPI). North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Weekly Crude, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada Decision.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for April 16, 2014

eu pat 15:38 GMT April 15, 2014
eurusd

And who is going to pay for that gas?

All of us pay everything. And also what has been many times in the past. German will finsh what they started in WAR II, U.S. need to be everywhere. Still only intrigues everywhere ... By the way, yesterday I saw about 20 people in backpacks in my village ... Today ... what do you do next? Will I buy them tickets to Detroit? ... What about Banderas? Will I buy more guns?...Maybe made in USA....

GVI Forex john 15:37 GMT April 15, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


April 15, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, April 16. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, GB- Employment, EZ- Final HICP (CPI), Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada Decision

  • Far East: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP.
  • Europe: GB- Employment, EZ- Final HICP (CPI).
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, Weekly Crude, Yellen, Beige Book, CA- Bank of Canada Decision.


Mtl JP 15:36 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Buy USDJPY
Entry: market Target: open Stop: sub 101.50

I am NOT calling this Best Trade Today, just one of few

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:26 GMT April 15, 2014
Does The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index Make Sense?
Reply   
In U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a Joke, Jay Meisler commented on the fatal weaknesses of the INDX (the U.S. dollar Index). Several people subsequently have asked me for my opinions on the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index

Does The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index Make Sense?

NY JM 15:24 GMT April 15, 2014
eurusd

Buying EURUSD on Ukraine concerns (if that is a market factor) makes little sense except market was caught short and there were stops to run.

Mtl JP 15:24 GMT April 15, 2014
eurusd

PAR 15:18 , of course, to the utmost rejoicing of the European princes. Note - happening today:
EU to approve bank rules before May election slows legislative machine - RTRS

..."The rule changes also strengthen the bloc's grip on capital markets at the expense of national governments to an extent few federalists would have dared to dream of"....
--
more stuff falling in place for the reset

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:21 GMT April 15, 2014
eurusd

I read that Ukraine said it may go to the bond market using US $1 loan guarantee.

PAR 15:18 GMT April 15, 2014
eurusd

And who is going to pay for that gas as Ukraine has no money . Let me guess, European taxpayers ?

Mtl JP 15:16 GMT April 15, 2014
eurusd

apparently German energy company RWE has started delivering gas to Ukraine

eu pat 15:13 GMT April 15, 2014
usd

looks carry trdes ( was massive last weeks) are closing due Ukraine....JPY, CHF, USD is prefered now...

eu pat 15:09 GMT April 15, 2014
usd
Reply   
usd should get stronger for while.....

GVI Forex Blog 15:08 GMT April 15, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The April NAHB housing market index was weaker than expected, moving up to an anemic 47 from 46 in the March report. This is the third consecutive month the index is below 50, in contraction territory

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Military Action in Eastern Ukraine Spooks Markets

HK [email protected] 15:06 GMT April 15, 2014
eurusd



Probably things will become clearer with gas supply disruption to Europe???

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:06 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EURUSD 1.3835 remains res.

NY JM 15:04 GMT April 15, 2014
eurusd

Tallin, came close 1.3790 vs. 1.3785 (50%)

Tallinn viies 14:53 GMT April 15, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
seems 50% retracement 1,3790 held and now euro up to 1,39 again. first needs to clear 1,3860-65.
it is like slow motion movie I must say :)

eu pat 14:47 GMT April 15, 2014
usd/jpy

srry, dead...

eu pat 14:46 GMT April 15, 2014
usd/jpy

They speak about 11 daed for now...it looks bad for all...it is starting...

eu pat 14:44 GMT April 15, 2014
usd/jpy

Drop after U.S data but also Ukraine is in mess right now again...I will hold but then look at close it...not good time for this type of trade...

Mtl JP 14:37 GMT April 15, 2014
April 2014 NAHB Index

john the press release is just spin
note the headline: 47 vs. 50 expected = i.e. disappointment no matter the BS from Kelly & Crowe

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:36 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Now have to watch usdjpy 101.50 as that is what needs to hold to keep the focus on 102.

EURUSD, typical price action but so far only able to move into the 1.3820-35 neutral zone.

US stocks gave back early gains - not clear if it was the NAHB or Ukraine

HK [email protected] 14:24 GMT April 15, 2014
This is already the real Mc Coy



Mtl JP

The gap may wait few days more.

The airplanes are dropping bombs not cookies:)

HK [email protected] 14:19 GMT April 15, 2014
VIDEO
Reply   
/

краматорск 15.04.14

eu pat 14:15 GMT April 15, 2014
usd/jpy
Reply   
looks buy...nowit is 101.720 i am in...risk trade with Ukraine

Mtl JP 14:15 GMT April 15, 2014
This is already the real Mc Coy

euro gap from 1.388x-ish still not closed, fwiw

Central Kwun 14:08 GMT April 15, 2014
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RF, agree with you this time, US is the real terrorists

GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT April 15, 2014
April 2014 NAHB Index

Personally, despite happy the NAHB press comments, I see this as another disappointing housing number. The NAHB Index is closely correlated to Housing Starts due tomorrow.

PAR 14:06 GMT April 15, 2014
NAHB
Reply   
United States NAHB Housing Market Index registered at 47, missing forecasts (50) in April

HK [email protected] 14:06 GMT April 15, 2014
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Usually the FED is behind those Wall St. criminals, probably to attract silly investor into USD instruments safe haven LOL

tokyo ginko 14:04 GMT April 15, 2014
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join the fun! sold gold 1297.5!

PAR 14:03 GMT April 15, 2014
February 2014 U.S. TIC flows

Belgium is a fiscal paradise for the French superrich but I dont think they invest in Us treasuries . Imho the FED openend an account with Swift or Euroclear and is placing some of its treasuries overthere.

GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT April 15, 2014
April 2014 NAHB Index


"April 14, 2014 - Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose one point to 47 in April from a downwardly revised March reading of 46 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“Builder confidence has been in a holding pattern the past three months,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del. “Looking ahead, as the spring home buying season gets into full swing and demand increases, builders are expecting sales prospects to improve in the months ahead.”

“Job growth is proceeding at a solid pace, mortgage interest rates remain historically low and home prices are affordable,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “While these factors point to a gradual improvement in housing demand, headwinds that are holding up a more robust recovery include ongoing tight credit conditions for home buyers and the fact that builders in many markets are facing a limited availability of lots and labor.” -- NAHB


HK [email protected] 14:01 GMT April 15, 2014
This is already the real Mc Coy
Reply   


Take notice that Euro may drop to 1.3775.

And Russian army may be in soon.

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT April 15, 2014
April 2014 NAHB Index
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
47 vs. 50 exp. vs. 47 (r 46) prev.

RELEASE: NAHB Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

HK [email protected] 13:56 GMT April 15, 2014
Military storm airfield, town in eastern Ukraine, wounded reported - protesters
Reply   


Ukrainian troops are storming an airfield in the eastern city of Kramatorsk, said anti-Maidan activists as cited by RIA Novosti. The activists added that several people were injured.

Ukrainian troops approached the military airfield in armored personnel carriers between the eastern cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, the people’s militia located at the airfield told RIA Novosti on the phone.

“They started negotiating with the people’s militia, which is in control of the airfield. The shooting started unexpectedly. There are injured among the people’s militia, and there may be deaths,” they said.

Other members of the militia have blocked the entrance to Kramatorsk and are ready to defend the city, the activists added.

At the same time, the eastern city of Slavyansk is being raided by Ukrainian troops, the head of the Donbass people’s militia, Sergey Tsyplakov, told RIA Novosti.

“Currently there is a major attack on Slavyansk, armored personnel vehicles are entering the city… there are many troops. The men are getting ready to defend [the city],” he said.

In turn, the Ukrainian media, quoting the Ministry of Defense, announced a special operation in Kramatorsk on Tuesday. However, they provided no further details.

Central Kwun 13:51 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

manipulated by US people again

dc CB 13:45 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

This morning, shortly before 8:27am ET, someone decide that it was the perfect time to dump thousands of Gold futures contracts worth over half a billion dollars notional. This smashed Gold futures down over $12 instantaneously, breaking below the 200DMA and triggered the futures exchange to halt trading in the precious metal for 10-seconds.

As Nanex exposes in great detail...

1. June 2014 Gold (GC) Futures on April 15, 2014
Note the 10 second halt.

Gold Futures Halted Again On Latest Furious Slamdown

dc CB 13:44 GMT April 15, 2014
February 2014 U.S. TIC flows

In summary: someone, unclear who, operating through Belgium and most likely the Euroclear service (possible but unconfirmed), has added a record $141 billion in Treasurys since December, or the month in which Bernanke announced the start of the Taper, bringing the host's total to an unprecedented $341 billion!

The "Shocking" Buying Spree Of America's Mysterious Third Largest Treasury Holder Ramps Higher

bali sja 13:28 GMT April 15, 2014
U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a Joke

yes i have been using fxcm usd index as well, certainly a lot more useful and successful trades based on it than the traditional usd index which is more and more irrelevant nowadays due to the strange and wrong weighting of the components IMHO

Mtl JP 13:16 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

re I'm never sure if gold is a risk-on or risk off trade.
A: only way to find out is to trade it

London Chris 13:15 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

Is anybody playing the market today?

Paris ib 13:15 GMT April 15, 2014
February 2014 U.S. TIC flows

Nothing tallies. 12 month cumulative total through to February 2014 sees a net long term capital outflow of 245 billion from an inflow of about the same amount in the 12 months to 2013.... what is going on with this account?

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:06 GMT April 15, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen

Yellen's speech tomorrow night is more important.

GVI Forex john 13:01 GMT April 15, 2014
February 2014 U.S. TIC flows
Reply   



ALERT
Net Capital Flows USDb: +167.7 vs. n/a vs. $83.0 prev.
Long-Term Flows USDb: +$85.70 vs. +30.0 exp. vs. $7.3 prev.


RELEASE: U.S. TIC Data


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:00 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

As usual we will be keeping an eye on equities to see if this will be a risk-on or risk-off session. As often true, the USDJPY to S&P correlation is working well. S&P futures are trying to rally but are struggling at their current HOD.

I'm not sure why, but gold and copper have been struggling. I'm never sure if gold is a risk-on or risk off trade.

Thoughts?

PAR 12:55 GMT April 15, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen

Yellen says big banks may need more capital

By Steve Goldstein

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve is actively considering new rules to address risks in short-term wholesale funding markets, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Tuesday at an Atlanta Fed banking conference. One rule, likely only to be applied to large and complex banks, would require firms to hold larger amounts of capital, stable funding, or highly liquid assets based on use of such funding. Another, which could be applied market-wide, could involve minimum margin requirements for repurchase agreements and other securities financing transactions. Yellen, citing one study, said there might be room for stronger capital and liquidity standards for large banks than have been adopted so far.

GVI Forex 12:55 GMT April 15, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen

I don't know. The text of her speech was released a while ago. Its was not on ploicy.

Central Kwun 12:52 GMT April 15, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen

her speech is finished?

GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT April 15, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen

Yellen does not say much. Focus on banking rules.

She speaks on policy tomorrow.

Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Monetary Policy and the Economic Recovery
At the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York
12:25 p.m. ET

dc CB 12:49 GMT April 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index

Eating and the "Housing Recovery", not the weather is to blame.

Headlines: in NYT Business this morning:

Food, Rental Housing Bump Up U.S. Consumer Inflation

In Many Cities, Rent Is Rising Out of Reach of Middle Class

dc CB 12:44 GMT April 15, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen

the new normal. Yellen sched to speak, civil war in Ukraine...Smack down gold

GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:41 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

I believe that choosing the strong side of the market to trade is more than half the battle and this is a good thread to express your bias. So don't be shy. There is more than one way to present and discuss a trade idea.

GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT April 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index



U.S. March CPI rising...

GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT April 15, 2014
U.S. March 2104 Empire PMI
Reply   



ALERT
+1.29 vs. +8.0 exp. vs. +5.6 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT April 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
Reply   



ALERT
Headline:
m/m: +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. v +0.50% pre
y/y:+1.50% vs. +1.40% exp. v +1.10% pre
Core:
m/m: +0.20% vs. +0.10% exp. v +0.10% pre
y/y: +1.70% vs. +1.60% exp. v +1.60% pre


RELEASE: Consumer Price Index


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Direct links to primary data sources

HK [email protected] 12:25 GMT April 15, 2014
“The country is anticipating civil war.”
Reply   

Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s prime minister, was much more pessimistic, responding on his Facebook page to the deaths of two people in Slavyansk on Sunday.
“Blood has once again been spilled in Ukraine,” he wrote. “The country is anticipating civil war.”

LINK

GVI Forex john 12:14 GMT April 15, 2014
U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a Joke

I was not aware of the Dow Jone FXCM USD Index. I can see the logic of it 50% Europe and 50% Far East. I'm not sure if for these purposes that AUD and JPY are a proxy for the CNY?

With most forex trading concentrated in a handful of major currencies, I don't see what purpose indices play? Seems like an invention of equity traders where indices make a lot of sense.

In any case we do not trade forex based on relative trade flows any more. We stopped that in the early 1980s.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:13 GMT April 15, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen

US CPI data for March are also released. Following the strong jump in the March PPI, we expect the US CPI to rise from 1.1% to 1.5%. The core CPI, however, is forecast to remain at 1.6%. After yesterday’s firm retail sales data, the April Empire State survey will be watched for further signs of a rebound in Q2. We look for it to rise from 5.6 to 8.0. Ahead of what looks to be a more important speech to the Economic Club of New York tomorrow, Fed Chair Yellen will be speaking (by video) at a financial markets conference in Atlanta. Markets will be watching to see whether they have struck the right balance after the confusion of the past month.

Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook

Mtl JP 12:11 GMT April 15, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen

how many +/- pip-reaction do u expect Yellen's yak to elicit from players ?

GVI Forex john 12:07 GMT April 15, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen
Reply   
Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Opening Remarks
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Conference: 2014 Financial Markets Conference, Stone Mountain, Georgia
8:45 a.m. ET

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:02 GMT April 15, 2014
U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a Joke

Tks HVW. haven't looked at that one but not much science to giving equal weights to 4 currencies.

Johannesburg HvW 11:59 GMT April 15, 2014
U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a Joke

Forgot to mention that one can find it on the FXCM platform.

Johannesburg HvW 11:58 GMT April 15, 2014
U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a Joke

Hello Jay,

The better USD-Index to use is the S&P one. It uses only 4 currencies in equal proportions of 25% each. The currencies are EUR, GBP, JPY & AUD.

London Misha 11:36 GMT April 15, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Follow on down after indecisive Doji last Friday. Back below (broken) 2008-to-date Downtrend on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Follow on up from Tweezer Bottom but halts ahead of old Neckline resistance, all on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - Continues backing down off 1.6823 resistance but nearing 1.6600 area support, all on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Pullback up after failure to test Mar lows on Daily Chart.
EURGBP - After fails to test Apr highs, now moves to test Apr lows on Daily Chart!
AUDUSD - Bullish Engulfing Pattern after Bearish Harami on Daily Chart but so far no follow through!
USDZAR -Indecisive Spinning Top & Bullish Harami at same time but closes over key 50% Fib at 10.4469 on Daily Chart.
USDBRL - Possible Tweezer Top after two White Soldiers on Daily Chart. 3rd close back over key 50% Fib at 2.1978!


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:27 GMT April 15, 2014
U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a Joke
Reply   
Is USDX relevant?

U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a Joke

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:05 GMT April 15, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

EURUSD
Entry: Negative bias while below 1.3820ish Target: Stop:

I call this the battle for 1.38

EURUSD trades with a negative bias today while below 1.3820-21 but would need to establish 1.38 as resistance for a stronger bias. 1.3820-35 is a neutral zone but only above upper end would put 1.3850 in play again.

On downside, 1.3790 (day low) and 1.3779 are nearby supports, latter needs to hold to keep the focus on 1.38.

Only a 31 pip range so far today so easy to see your emotions swing with a small move.

More details in my Forex Outlook video for today.

Feel free to comment, agree or disagree. Open for discussion.

Mtl JP 10:45 GMT April 15, 2014
Let's see this fundamental in action.

with some unhappy folks - Catalans, Scots, Belgians, Italians and Ukrainians - Europe's Eurosceptics more united than many think: poll RTRS

GVI Forex Blog 10:31 GMT April 15, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Major FX currency pairs remained within narrow ranges. The mixed German ZEW survey failed to inspire price action. EUR/USD steady at 1.3800 area

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Roche and Nestle have negative fx impact on Q1 results; German ZEW mixed

GVI Forex john 10:13 GMT April 15, 2014
April 2014 German ZEW Survey

"The cautious expectations in this month’s survey are likely to be caused by the Ukraine conflict, which still creates uncertainty. Furthermore, the slight decline in economic expectations has taken place against the backdrop of a very positive evaluation of the current economic situation in Germany. The indicator reflecting the experts' assessment of the current economic situation for Germany has gained remarkable 8.2 points in April, reaching a level of 59.5 points. This is the indicator’s highest level since July 2011." -ZEW

jkt abel 10:00 GMT April 15, 2014
sell usdchf
Reply   
sold 0.8809, stop 0.8857, open target too

jkt abel 09:57 GMT April 15, 2014
buy cable! dont miss it!

hehe, gbp long stop survived, now downside is done IMO, snap back rally can take us high high high, sky is the limit for cable

GVI Forex Blog 09:19 GMT April 15, 2014
U.K. Inflation Remained Tame in March. April German ZEW Survey Readings Mixed
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- CPI

Key U.K. inflation data for March fell in line with market estimates and were constructive for a continuation of an accommodative monetary policy for the Bank of England. U.S. CPI Data are due later today.

U.K. Inflation Remained Tame in March. April German ZEW Survey Readings Mixed

GVI Forex john 09:05 GMT April 15, 2014
April 2014 German ZEW Survey



German ZEW Survey. Data mixed. More closely watched expectation reading falls..


GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT April 15, 2014
April 2014 German ZEW Survey
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Economic Expectations: +43.2 vs. +44.3 exp. vs. +46.6 prev.
Current Conditions: +59.5 vs. +52.0 exp. vs. +51.3 prev.

RELEASE: German ZEW Survey


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Lahore FM 08:58 GMT April 15, 2014
" Trade Ideas "

Buy usdx
Entry: 1.0884 Target: 1.20 Stop: 1/0884 for half

Lahore FM 16:53:58 GMT - 04/09/2014

Buy usdx
Entry: 1.0884 Target: Stop:
long usd on usdcad 1.0884,usdchf 0.8824,eurusd long usd 1.3805.
--
half portion usdcad long 1.0884 closed now at 1.0991 and stop placed at entry with target set at 1.20 for the remainder long.

GVI Forex john 08:51 GMT April 15, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mixed to higher as trading starts to slow into end of week holidays. The peripheral European bond prices are mostly higher.

Equity markets today are mixed as well. With Europe mostly lower. U.S. equity futures are lower. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.64% -1bp.

GVI Forex 08:43 GMT April 15, 2014
Up Next
Reply   
Elsewhere, the ZEW will be watched for further signs of recovery in Germany. We look for an above-consensus rise in the expectations component to 47, bringing it more in line with recent IFO readings.

Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook

GVI Forex john 08:43 GMT April 15, 2014
March 2014 UK CPI/RPIX



U.K. CPI & RPIX data in line with expectations. GBPUSD up.

Lahore FM 08:33 GMT April 15, 2014
buy cable! dont miss it!

Red 4 h not negative at all..a sell can get stuck imho !

GVI Forex john 08:32 GMT April 15, 2014
March 2014 UK CPI/RPIX
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

CPI mm: +0.20% v +0.20% exp v +0.50% pre
CPI yy: +1.60% v +1.60% exp v +1.70% pre

RPIX yy: +2.50% v +2.50% exp v +2.70% pre

Core Output PPI
yy: +1.00% v +0.90% exp v +1.10% pre

RELEASE: Consumer Price Indices


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Ldn 08:31 GMT April 15, 2014
buy cable! dont miss it!

1.6713? Sell it!!!!!

HK [email protected] 08:01 GMT April 15, 2014
Let's see this fundamental in action.
Reply   


Ukraine’s coup-appointed acting President Aleksandr Turchinov has announced a crackdown on anti-government protesters in the north of the Donetsk Region, eastern Ukraine.

“The anti-terrorist operation started overnight Monday,” said Turchinov. “The aim of these actions is to protect the citizens of Ukraine.”

According to Turchinov, this ‘anti-terrorist operation’ also aims to prevent “attempts to break Ukraine apart.”

DETAILS TO FOLLOW

london red 07:23 GMT April 15, 2014
buy cable! dont miss it!

Today is inflation day. Risk is for a print of 1.6% or even 1.5% for cpi.
Supports at 16684-88(fibs/10 day) then 44 and 16605-16590 bunch of fibs. Resistance 16740/50.
So maybe a sell today but a buy into tomorrows wage data which will be keenly watched.

eu pat 07:17 GMT April 15, 2014
gbp/usd

closed...hourly pinbars looks bad...I think UK data will be gbp negative, but gbp often make opposite move...for me it is done and I have a look for another oportunity later on

GVI Forex Blog 07:09 GMT April 15, 2014 Reply   
**Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA MAR AGGREGATE FINANCING (CNY): 2.07T V 1.85TE >- (CN) CHINA MAR NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 1.05T V 1.0TE - (CN) CHINA MAR FOREIGN RESERVES: $3.95T V $3.92TE - (CN) CHINA MAR

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Stocks fall as emergency session of UN Security Council fails to resolve Ukraine tensions - Source TradeTheNews.com

eu pat 06:11 GMT April 15, 2014
gbp/usd
Reply   
I am selling before UK datas...

HK [email protected] 04:27 GMT April 15, 2014
Beat them'll as you can. Not very stable Gov.
Reply   

Monday, April 14
23:41 GMT:
Radicals attacked two presidential candidates that were taking part in popular Ukrainian talk show ‘Svoboda Slova’. Unidentified individuals blocked and damaged the vehicle carrying Mikhail Dobkin and injured his aides, the presidential candidate said during a live phone interview later on the show. Other media reports said that the radicals poured green-coloured anti-septic solution and flour on him.

The vehicle carrying a second presidential candidate, Oleg Tsarev, was similarly blocked by radicals inside the ICTV building, where the show was taking place, Tsarev’s press service reported. The whole building is surrounded by unidentified gunmen, according to the statement.

The two candidates were scheduled to join a third presidential candidate, Yulia Tymoshenko, on the talk show.

jkt abel 03:55 GMT April 15, 2014
buy cable

this is the original position, still running well:

jkt abel 09:23 GMT April 10, 2014
buy cable: Reply
closed half here at 1.6772 for +197 pips!! rest is still running for much higher, stop at BE, can't lose only win now

jkt abel 09:37 GMT April 7, 2014
buy cable: Reply
bought gbpusd 1.6575, stop 1.6527, target open!

jkt abel 03:53 GMT April 15, 2014
buy cable! dont miss it!
Reply   
UK data again later, so buy back half position, now have full position again
loaded 1.6714, stop for this below 1.6650, target open same with original one

GVIForex Jay Meisler 02:23 GMT April 15, 2014
International Financial Outlook
Reply   
Contact me for the full report

APRIL 2014

Welcome to the April edition of the International Financial Outlook broadcast presented by Rhys Herbert.

There are few significant changes to our FX forecasts this month. Our year-end target for GBP/USD has been cut slightly to 1.60, with EUR/GBP at 0.80. EUR/USD and USD/JPY targets are left at 1.30 and 110, respectively. The core view of broad-based dollar strength over the year ahead is maintained, underpinned by improving US economic data and interest rate differentials.

We have raised our USD/CNY target to 6.13 at end 2014. The outlook is uncertain, but we expect gradual appreciation to resume. The Indian rupee could be volatile past the election, however, we have lowered our end 2014 target to 59 this month. We have cut near-term targets for USD/ZAR, but still forecast 10.20 at end 2014. Targets for EM Asian pairs have been lowered to reflect improved growth prospects.

We have brought forward our forecast for the first hike in Fed funds to Q2 2015 and now predict 1% at end 2015. Targets for US 10-year treasury yields have been raised modestly to 3.3% at end 2014 and 3.7% at end 2015. We forecast UK 10-year yields at 3.1% and 3.6%.

Lloyds Bank

HK [email protected] 02:12 GMT April 15, 2014
Pretty Funny



Too simplistic.
Using guns with no brain!

What will be the repercussion of bringing down that Russian plane.

The wisdom of the US ship command was to assess correct the non aggressive intention of the Russian plane.

syd sf 02:01 GMT April 15, 2014
Pretty Funny
Reply   
the US sends a top line ship to the Black Sea - and a Russian Fighter Pilot buzzes it .. that guy has balls of steel or watched Top Gun too many times.

the firepower/defences of that ship damage cities let alone a single plane..... hope he retires after that flight.

syd sf 01:59 GMT April 15, 2014
$yen
Reply   
the problem with this market is every time it goes to 60-70 area now up from 30-40 -- bot buys -- then when it goes 90-95 bot sells

very frustrating market this one in terms of wider movements.

good trade Zeus - worked out pretty well.

Euro - Draghi mentions weaker eurusd -- but is 138 or 137 really that much of a weaker eurusd ? seems more like a push in blackjack than a win.

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:41 GMT April 15, 2014
AceTrader Apr 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Apr 2014 01:30GMT

AUD/USD - 0.9400... News fm Reuters, Austrlia Central bank minutes states 'cash rate to remain steady for some time given economic outlook; A$ still high by historial standard, less supoortive of economy given latest rise; board saw further promising signs low rates working may through economy; strong pick up in home building ahead, no metion of any concerns at rising home prices; evidence consumer demand had strengthened, liaison suggestsed some easing in retail sales; exports growings strongly, board noted pick up i non-residential buidling approvals; falling mining investment, weak public demand to constrain growth for some time;

Japan EconMin Amari says 'Japan stocks falling on influence fo Ukarine situation, U.S. markets; regarding further BoJ easing, market is moving simply on its own expectations and disappointment; expects market will respond appropriately as gov't flshes out growth stratgegy.'
Japan FinMin Aso says 'Japan's position at G20 was the wage gains and improving sentiment show economy is in good shape.'

NZ FinMin Bill English says 'Treasury sees growth of 2% to 4% a year out to 2018.'

14 Apr 2014 23:30GMT
White House says 'Obama expressed "grave concern" in call to Putin over Russian government support for Pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine; Obama urged Putin to use his influence with armed, Pro-Russian groups to convince them to depart building in Ukraine they have seized; in call Obama told Putin Russia must withdraw troops from Ukraine's border to reduce tensions, noted Ukraine government had acted with "remarkable restraint; told Putin costs to Russia would increase if its actions in Ukraine persist.'

Obama administration offical says 'Obama's call with Putin came at Russians' request, was "frank and direct"; made clear to Putin that diplomatic path in Ukraine crisis was preferred path, but "Russia's actions' are neither consistent with or conducive to that.'

 




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