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Forex Forum Archive for 04/19/2014
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GVI Forex 23:53 GMT April 19, 2014
Knowledge is Power
Click below for articles of interest posted this past week and see what the trading theme will be for the week ahead:
- Yellen "Clarifies" Policy Posture: Trading Themes for 13 April 2014
- Ask Your Advocate; Is it Safe to Follow a Trade Call?
- How to Trade a Political Market
- Does the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index Make Sense?
- U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a Joke
Knowledge is Power - Read These Articles
Mtl JP 17:19 GMT April 19, 2014
Long Weekend Reads
BoE and ECB , apparently, have not learned anything
THE IMPAIRED EU SECURITISATION MARKET: CAUSES, ROADBLOCKS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH THEM an author-less ECB and BoE paper
My distinct feeling from the paper is that central bankers are increasingly desperate trying to
1) prevent a new bust and
2) resuscitate a new boom
Suggesting that secularization - wrap, slice n dice and bag - of crap for resale will revive an economy is a cruel joke. More importantly what it suggests is that the bankers still think they can prevent a reset and not take a hit on their poor-judgement holdings. It means that an all-cleaning financial fire down to the concrete basement is not yet imminent. Just pushed out.
HK [email protected] 11:02 GMT April 19, 2014
Grave threats by Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia
"Hopefully, if those people are ready to leave the buildings, to surrender weapons, today, tomorrow, so we can encourage the OSCE mission to negotiate, to mediate and implement this. But if this will not start in a few days, I think that after Easter there will more concrete actions."
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:47 GMT April 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today
John, my view
1) Market is bearish on JPY and bullish USDJPY even though USD is so far down this year. JPY buying has been liquidating positions and not reversing to long side. My guess is core USDJPY longs are hanging in looking for 105-110. What has frustrated JPY bears is no hint yet from BoJ of more easing. If 102 becomes support then USDJPY bulls will look for eventual move back to 105.
2) EURUSD has gone nowhere so far this year (2013 close 1.3773) and high (1.3967) is probably in for the year so risk is for a move to a lower range at some stage (needs to establish below 1.38). ECB has made it clear that it will take action by easing policy if EUR goes much higher although actions speak louder than words.. If ECB eases policy take it as a signal it wants a weaker EUR to counter deflationary pressures.
GVI Forex john 10:23 GMT April 19, 2014
Your Best Trade Today
Im trying to figure out why positions in USDJPY in the COT are so skewed to the long USD side when if you look at a bar chart with moving averages (20-50-100-200 days) are almost dead flat?
Makes no sense to me.
By way of contrast, the EURUSD positioning is a lot less "unbalanced", but the moving average lines are all skewed upward, with the exception of the 20-day average which has gone flat.
What I am wondering is are the "fundamentals" at work here or is it something else? Is the USDJPY chart telling us that a weaker JPY is "inevitable" and the EURUSD positioning telling us that the EURUSD cannot be sustained?
The two set of charts COT and Moving Averages are telling strategic traders a story that coincide with what the longer term fundamentals tend to support.
How do we test this view via the price action? Also, more importantly, how do we know when its gone wrong?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:54 GMT April 19, 2014
As John posted on GVI Forex
Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 20:19 GMT 04/18/2014 - My Profile
Our last five EURUSD closes
dc CB 00:39 GMT April 19, 2014
Long Weekend Reads
History dosen't repeat...but it rhymes..(annon)
There couldn't possibly be another war, Norman Angell was sure of that. His 1911 book The Great Illusion became a wordwide best seller. In 1913... the fourth edition is published.
As ever more vexing noises push their wasy northwards from the Balkans that early summer, the intellectuals in Berlin, Munich and Vienna are abel to calm their nerves by reading the British publicist's book.
In it Angell expounds his theory that the era ow globalization renders world wars impossible, becaue all countries are now economically interlinked to such a high degree. He also says that, alsongside the economic networks, close international ties in communication and abovee all in the world of finance mean that any war would be preposterous. He argues that, even if the German military wanted to pit its strength against England, there is 'no establishment of significance in Germany, which would ot suffer greatly'. This he claims would prevent war, because 'the entire German finacial world would exert its influence over the German government, thereby putting atop to a situation which would be ruinous for German trade'.
the President of Stanford University, utters these great words.....'The Great WAr in Europe, that eternal threat. will never come. The bankers won't come up with the money needed for such a war, and industry won't support it, so the statemen simply won't be able to do it. There will be no Great War'
p129, 1913 The Year Before the Storm, Florian Illies
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