Forex Forum Archive for 04/26/2014

HK [email protected] 23:57 GMT April 26, 2014
Cutting water supply is a crime!!!
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Cutting water supply from people who sought their freedom, is a crime against humanity by all standards, so why don't we hear any condemnation from the champion of human rights: USA?

HK [email protected] 23:08 GMT April 26, 2014
They ask for troubles! In normal times it is a Casus Belli.
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Ukraine cuts water supply to Russia's Crimea

Ukraine have closed the sluices of the North Crimean Canal, halting water supply from the Dnieper River to the peninsula, Ukraine's Unian news agency reported. Supplying water to Crimea can be carried out through a backup plan, the Prime Minister of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, said Saturday. "Crimea will not be left without water! There is a backup plan. There are no problems with drinking water. Agricultural producers will be compensated for the losses," Aksyonov said on his Twitter page. Crimea had received 85 percent of its fresh water through the canal, which stretches from the Khakhovka Reservoir towards the city of Kerch on the east coast of Crimea terminating just short of the city. Earlier there were reports that Ukraine had suspended the water supply to Crimea, but the state department of water services denied these reports. Crimea voted to break away from Ukraine and become part of Russia following the coup in Kiev in February.

Mtl JP 22:50 GMT April 26, 2014
Group of Seven agrees swift sanctions against Kremlin over Ukraine

AL 14:13 - I have difficulty watching Merkel genuflecting to Kerry who appears to be chaperoned by Victoria "fu*k europe" Nuland at the g-7 meetings like a bad fart that has not left the room. Unless the reason Merkel is on the American bandwagon is that 0bama's gang have something black-mailable on the German "leader" - maybe there is something in those snoopings of her phone scandalous headlines - in which case Merkel would be a certifiable idiot in which case she should somehow fake some near-death disease and abdicate instead of letting herself be played like a puppet to the detriment of the German Nation (ie. EU)

dc CB 18:08 GMT April 26, 2014
All animals are equal, some are more equal...
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Benefitting [sic] from faster access to the markets is akin to buying a first-class plane ticket, and “doesn’t sound unfair,” said the top cop at Wall Street regulator FINRA.

Speaking on a panel at a conference sponsored by the Practicing Law
Institute Friday in New York, J. Bradley Bennett, the chief of
enforcement at FINRA, was reacting to a question on high-frequency
trading and a discussion of Michael Lewis’ recent book Flash Boys.

Bennett was on a panel with the enforcement heads of the SEC, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Dept. of Justice.

He compared high frequency trading to buying a first-class ticket on an airline, saying these passengers are paying for the benefit of getting on and off the plane first. “Is there anything unfair about that? Doesn’t sound like it to me.”

FINRA Chief of Enforcement Compares HFT To Buying First Class Plane Tickets

Dillon AL 14:13 GMT April 26, 2014
Group of Seven agrees swift sanctions against Kremlin over Ukraine

Swift sanctions.......The European Union will name 15 more Russians subject to asset freezes and a travel ban on Monday and senior EU diplomats will meet the same day to discuss the next steps, EU sources said.

Is this the only thing that they can think of.... pathetic...

What is clear is that the main gas tap to Europe runs through Ukraine and a little terrorist action of cutting a hole in one of the pipelines could easily destroy any hope of the nascent EU recovery instantly (IE Russia does not need to turn the tap off per see). The US forgets that the trade flow from the EU into Russia is 10x the trade from the US. Hence any sanctions hurt Europe more than Russia
PS An alternative would be for Russia to institute maintenance on the pipelines to reduce the flow to a trickle.
PPS A Russian default along the lines of the one back in 1998 would also hurt EU banks dramatically

The list and possibilities of what Russia can impose on the west are almost endless. Once again 0 and Merkel are blind to un-intended consequences of their ridiculous sanctions
and they also fail to recognize the history of Ukraine which has always been a puppet/over run call it what you wish for 4000 years but more especially they fail to see history over the last 150

FX impact on the majors is unclear and hence why volatility has dropped back to 2005/2006 lows (and may drop even further) in that the push pull so far this year may very well continue right the way through the summer despite (or should that be in spite of) the risk on/off bipolar nature of so called investors who now seem to have a time horizon of 48-72 hours at best. The issue with this is that the major funds whether they be mutual or hedge run by Fink / Ebsworth / Dalio etc etc are too large to have any serious internal bottom line impact unless they decide (unlikely) to liquidate on masse
With the news fixation of the FX market then it seems that 20 mins per day at a max of 2 times per day (invariably at unsociable hours) remains the only driver of very mediocre returns

GVI Forex john 13:58 GMT April 26, 2014
Lots of Major Data Due: Themes for April 27, 2014
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hspace="10"> We don't expect much new from the FOMC on Wednesday. Another $10 bln cut in the monthly Asset Purchase Program to $45bln appears to be assured, as so far there has been no obvious impact from the withdrawal of this extraordinary market support. There is no press conference so we will have only the official statement as an explanation of the policy decision.

Furthermore, the latest Employment Report (April) will not be released until Friday. We don't see the meeting as a market-moving event. Chair Yellen will speak publicly on Thursday...

Lots of Major Data Due: Themes for April 27, 2014

GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT April 26, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

CFTC Net USD short position USD 3.3bln, Inceases 15%.

GVI Forex 10:38 GMT April 26, 2014
Group of Seven agrees swift sanctions against Kremlin over Ukraine
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(Reuters) - Leaders of the Group of Seven major economies agreed to impose extra sanctions on Russia over its intervention in Ukraine, where armed pro-Moscow separatists detained a group of international observers and accused them of being NATO spies.

Group of Seven agrees swift sanctions against Kremlin over Ukraine

New York FOREX Trading 09:16 GMT April 26, 2014
EUR/USD Trend with Events of Week
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EUR/USD Trend
The EUR/USD has seen a very lackluster last two weeks of trade, with the pair consolidating in a tight range between about 1.3790 and 1.3860. As Kathleen Brooks noted last week, EUR/USD volatility has fallen to a multi-year low, though with a highly-anticipated Eurozone CPI release on tap, in addition to a data-packed US economic calendar, this week should be more exciting. As you would expect after a slow two weeks, both the MACD and Slow Stochastics are neutral, indicating balanced, two-way trade. For this week, a break above near-term resistance at 1.3860 could target the recent highs near 1.3900 or 1.3965, while a bearish break below 1.3790 may expose 1.3700 or 1.3670 support next.

Events of Week:

EUR/USD remained subdued around 1.3800 last week
MACD and Slow Stochastics show balanced, two-way trade
Next week’s major data releases should inject some volatility

FOREX Signals

GVI Forex 03:10 GMT April 26, 2014
European Firms Seek to Minimize Russia Sanctions
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BERLIN — With the showdown over Ukraine escalating and President Obama warning Moscow of a tough new round of sanctions, Russia and its allies in the European private sector are conducting a separate campaign to ensure that they can maintain their deep and longstanding economic ties even if the Kremlin orders further military action.

European Firms Seek to Minimize Russia Sanctions