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Forex Forum Archive for 04/30/2014

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Cambridge Joe 22:54 GMT April 30, 2014
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Then fingers crossed, good luck and good night from here !

Chennai AMI 22:53 GMT April 30, 2014
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Its a buy,

Cambridge Joe 22:43 GMT April 30, 2014
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AMI long or short ?

I have 1 pos long at the same.

Chennai AMI 22:40 GMT April 30, 2014
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Thanks for your views. I'm holding one position from 99.645

Cambridge Joe 22:37 GMT April 30, 2014
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AMI

I've had a couple of unfortunates with oil lately, but that said, to me it's not short. buys around 02:30 gmt. Looks into and thru Friday from here.

Just IMO of course.

syd sf 22:36 GMT April 30, 2014
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lol . I gotta watch out for ladders and black cats for 2 days.

Chennai AMI 22:31 GMT April 30, 2014
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Hey Guyz, your views on current oil move.

Cambridge Joe 22:25 GMT April 30, 2014
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sf two hopes..... Bob Hope and no hope !

ausnzd buys 00:00 gmt and gets the habit.

gbp aud.. not so clear, but I don't think sooo !

Ha !

Yes, I say Ha ! :-)

syd sf 22:14 GMT April 30, 2014
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- aud/nzd = 10680
+ gbp/aud = 1.8330/50

by friday close.

GVI Forex john 21:51 GMT April 30, 2014
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I'm seeing reports that the markets were speculating that the closed door Fed meeting within a meeting was to discuss a pause in the Fed tapering. Perhaps the view is that if a pause were discussed in the "open" closed Fed meeting that it would have had to have been disclosed the regular Minutes. By having a special meting I assume they could have postponed releasing the details until much later.

With the 10-yr note currently below 2.70%, I don't see what a postponing of the taper would accomplish? If they are exiting the taper without the market blowing up, they should be thanking their lucky stars. I am stretching my brain to figure out another plausible reason for a secret meeting on "Medium-Term Monetary Policy".

GVI Forex john 21:32 GMT April 30, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data



April 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU/CN- mfg PMIs, EZ- Holiday, GB- Mfg PMI, US- Yellen Speaks, Personal Income PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobless, PMI's, CA- PMI.

  • Far East: AU/CN- mfg PMIs.
  • Europe: EZ- Holiday, GB- Mfg PMI.
  • North America: US- Yellen Speaks, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobless, PMI's, CA- PMI.


CT LV 21:28 GMT April 30, 2014
trading styles.

Cool video !

Cambridge Joe 21:24 GMT April 30, 2014
trading styles.
Reply   
A short film not unrelated to trading.

Notice how the guy in the spotted jersey is short Cable, while the guy in the leather jacket is long Cable.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=679974262026397&set=vb.100000414892351&type=2&theater

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=679974262026397&set=vb.100000414892351&type=2&theater

dc CB 20:51 GMT April 30, 2014
Days in May with the OK to Short



With tom being May 1. will the Sell In May Crowd try to be first off the block? He who sells first sells best!

mayday mayday mayday...I'm going down....ejecting ejecting.

case could be made for a Tripple Top ....good run and done....outta here baby.

Cambridge Joe 20:36 GMT April 30, 2014
Achtung Achtung !
Reply   
Cable to the basement USDX to the roof !

Coming soon to a screen near you !

IMO. GL

GVI Forex Blog 20:36 GMT April 30, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
The US dollar and US interest rates fell. The main catalyst was a surprisingly weak Q1 US GDP report. Also contributing was news that a special closed Fed Board meeting was held yesterday, raising speculation a pause in tapering was discussed. However, the FOMC did taper QE by another $10bn as was widely expected

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

dc CB 20:10 GMT April 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

dc CB 19:53 GMT April 29, 2014
reverse Repo today 183.327 Bln
tom is EOM ...see the pretty windows
will it be 250+++bln ...got to wait until after 1PM to find out
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

So step aside any sophisticated claims that the Fed's reverse repo is a means to extract liquidity when the time to raise rates finally comes: all this latest "tool" in the Fed's arsenal is, is nothing more than a Fed-mandated and endorsed mechanism with which the banks can fool regulators and investors that they are in a far healthier condition than they really are.

And judging by the humiliating episode involving Bank of America's made up numbers that punked the Fed into believing America's most insolvent TBTF bank was healthy enough to give be billions to investors, one of the parties most "confused" by what the RRP does, is the Fed itself.

Month-End Window Dressing Sends Fed Reverse Repo Usage To $208 Billion: Second Highest Ever

GVI Forex john 19:40 GMT April 30, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:39 GMT April 30, 2014
Days in May with the OK to Short
Reply   
more than usual
and only 24 billion for the month

POMOs in May

Paris ib 19:35 GMT April 30, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Oh right, I thought it was the expedited procedures or the exclusion of the public or something.... I have no idea.

GVI Forex john 19:29 GMT April 30, 2014
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It doesn't bother me. Why do they have to have a meeting when they are already having one? It makes no sense unless it it because of some ridiculous law?

Paris ib 19:25 GMT April 30, 2014
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What bothers you about that John?

GVI Forex john 19:25 GMT April 30, 2014
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cb good catch. It doesn't look like it was an earthshaking topic?

dc CB 19:25 GMT April 30, 2014
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of course another misleading of the Sheeple

Government in the Sunshine.

As the FED is not a government agency...it is a private Bank Owned organization

GVI Forex john 19:23 GMT April 30, 2014
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Strange


On Tuesday, April 29, 2014 at 10:30 AM, a meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 26lb.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C., to consider the following matters of official Board business.

Meeting Date: Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Matter(s) Considered
1. Discussion of Medium-Term Monetary Policy Issues.

dc CB 19:19 GMT April 30, 2014
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think it might have something to do with the Emergency Meeting that the FED held yesterday...at the SAME time the FMOC was scheduled....but that nobody knows anything about?

Government in the Sunshine Meeting Notice

GVI Forex john 19:10 GMT April 30, 2014
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10-yr yield falling late in the day. Last 2.65% -5bp. I'm having trouble grasping a coherent message.

GVI Forex john 19:05 GMT April 30, 2014
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Thursday-
sees May Day holiday in many centers, but notably not in New York and London.

CHINA: PMI's are always closely followed and can impact the Aussie.

U.K.: Manufacturing PMI will be examined for further evidence that the economy is growing.

U.S.: Yellen is due to speak but not on policy. It appears to me that sometimes she feels the obligation to comment on policy. Remember her job under Bernanke was to work on Fed transparency. U.S. Weekly Jobless are always tracked for its basic trend. U.S. Mfg PMIs will be followed closely for indications of growth. Markets are looking for any confirmation (or not) that the economy is growing.


Our Risk Heat Map earlier was not sending a clear signal. The markets need a coherent signal on where investment flows are heading. On this score NFP on Friday could be decisive.




GVI Forex john 18:48 GMT April 30, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


eu pat 18:43 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

so strategy for this week, buy the dips against usd looks good..
this is my last post here..

Good luck to all))

GVI Forex Blog 18:39 GMT April 30, 2014
Strong ADP. No Fed Surprises. EZ CPI Mixed. German Jobless Improves. BOJ Policy Steady
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: AU/CN- PMIs, EZ- Holiday, GB- PMI, US- Yellen, Personal Income PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobs, PMI's, CA- PMI

U.S. ADP private payrolls data saw a stronger than expected 220K gain in April Private Payrolls. The problem is that ADP data have not been a reliable predictor of non-farm payrolls.

Strong ADP. No Fed Surprises. EZ CPI Mixed. German Jobless Improves. BOJ Policy Steady

dc CB 18:10 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision



The Lost Last Paragraph:

Those eligible will, for the foreseeable future, still be able to borrow unlimited amounts at 0.05%. Those not eligible will continue to earn 0.025% on your retirement savings. For those of you just starting out, the Committee reccomends investing in Treasury Bills, compund interest is a wonderful thing, you can double your money in 35years.

Grammy sez, a spoonful of hiney(sic) makes the medicine go down.

GVI Forex john 18:07 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Fed sounds very dovish based on their statement.

eu pat 18:05 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

somebody very strong sitting at the top..

GVI Forex john 18:03 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Final two paragraphs of Fed Statement. Link below

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:01 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

No surprises.

GVI Forex john 18:00 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Rates: Unchanged
Asset Purchases: -$10bln to $45.0/mo


RELEASE: Policy Statement


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

dc CB 17:46 GMT April 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

FRBNY ReverseRepo for today $208.222bln

CT LV 17:41 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

1.3876 was tested 3 times in a row

Livingston nh 17:40 GMT April 30, 2014
FOMC
Reply   
as long as Yellen says "stay the course" markets should stay calm - BUT if an excuse is needed to get rowdy any slight deviation will suffice // expect a whipsaw reaction w/ stox testing 1870 low - Stein is leaving after this meeting and 2 more employment reports (and some elections in Europe) before next meeting // given the checkered past of "stay the course" policies things might get dicey next two months

eu pat 17:39 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd
Reply   
are we ready finally to break up levels? or again at BE?))

GVI Forex john 17:05 GMT April 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Look at all the red in the yields in the prime fixed income markets. That would suggest a "risk-off" posture. On the other hand, European and U.S. equity markets are modestly higher. That suggests "risk-on". The prices for peripheral bond markets are higher. Far East equity markets ended mostly up earlier. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.66%, -4bp.

Note: the color scheme of interest rates has been changed to reflect yields, not bond prices. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).

NY JM 16:34 GMT April 30, 2014
Global Markets News

What would really cause a head twirl is if NFP comes in at 300K. Nothing can be ruled out in a data driven market.

NY JM 16:27 GMT April 30, 2014
Global Markets News

Bond market is leading today - 10 year 2.65%

PAR 16:26 GMT April 30, 2014
GDP
Reply   
Probably a mathematical error ? If Bofa can make a $ 4 billion error so can the statisticians who calculate GDP .

Not all economists can have been wrong ?

HK [email protected] 15:59 GMT April 30, 2014
Global Markets News



THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW!

HK [email protected] 15:55 GMT April 30, 2014
Global Markets News



Probably they went on panic shopping, as they suspect the US is entering into a new ice-age(maybe under the influence of that movie...).

bali sja 15:52 GMT April 30, 2014
buy cable, sell usd
Reply   
yawn, 1.69 very easy trade...looking back at my post last weekend hmmm :))

HK [email protected] 15:50 GMT April 30, 2014
Global Markets News



During a bad weather(or calamity) people will spend more, as they have to shop for more items to survive in harsh conditions.

Now that business WW is not that good, where in fact it is a recession, any tapering will not make any good for the economy.



GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:47 GMT April 30, 2014
Global Markets News

FOMC meeting should be a non-event although markets generally find a reason to move on the statement.

It would be fun if the Fed pauses its taper but that is a very long shot.

Any thoughts welcomed.



GVI Forex Blog 15:22 GMT April 30, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Most analysts are shrugging off the +0.1% advance Q1 GDP reading, citing the well-worn excuse of unusually severe winter weather. The focus has been on the consumption component of the first reading of Q1 GDP, which was +3.0%, roundly beating expectations, bolstered by a 4.4% jump in spending on services. The latter was due to the expansion of healthcare under Obamacare.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Low Q1 GDP Explained Away, US Indices in the Black

london red 15:04 GMT April 30, 2014
EURUSD 13865 wfakhoury DL

euro. above 3880 then crack at 3900 but inclined to think while we hold double highs around 3880 then we can come down back a bit. thru 3850 gives us a crack at 200 hour but likely not much til fomc which in itself not expected to throw fireworks.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:03 GMT April 30, 2014
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It is old news but bond market still reacting.

Is it lower bond yields or end of month weighing on the USD?

GPBUSD extending its 4+ year highs, USDJPY slipping to new day low. EURUSD intra-day double top at 1.3869-70 blocks the key daily double top at 1.3879-80, which in turn blocks key 1.3905.

And we still have the FOMC.

Amman wfakhoury 14:36 GMT April 30, 2014
EURUSD 13865 wfakhoury DL

Any rise above 13865 will return to it.
so sell and add sell if rise.

Amman wfakhoury 14:34 GMT April 30, 2014
EURUSD 13865 wfakhoury DL
Reply   
13865 wfakhoury directional level...if 1 he bar closed above it then 13900 is coming..if keeps below it then 13831 is coming


The only one in the world who confirms the next level

GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT April 30, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +1.700 vs. +2.000 exp vs. +3.520 prev.
Gasoline: +2.000 vs. -0.500 exp vs. +2.500 prev.
Distillates:+1.940 vs. +0.500 exp vs. +0.600 prev.
Cap/Util: 91.00% vs. n/a exp vs. 91.00% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 14:28 GMT April 30, 2014
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Street estimates for NFP is for a gain of 210K to be announced on Friday. Data today suggest that street estimates will be increased once again going into Friday's data. That means that traders once again will be setting up for strong figure again. Sooner or later they will be right, but this has been a losing strategy for the past five years or so.

london red 14:25 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p

re q1 gdp, revision may be even a negative one...end of quart inventories very high.
but its old news some say, jam tomorrow (Q2)

GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT April 30, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


April 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU/CN- mfg PMIs, EZ- Holiday, GB- Mfg PMI, US- Yellen Speaks, Personal Income PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobless, PMI's, CA- PMI.

  • Far East: AU/CN- mfg PMIs.
  • Europe: EZ- Holiday, GB- Mfg PMI.
  • North America: US- Yellen Speaks, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Weekly Jobless, PMI's, CA- PMI.


dc CB 14:06 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p

well if either of you had bothered to read the link:

"And of course, for all those who correctly point out that mandatory spending on healthcare, also known as malinvestment, took away from spending on every other discretionary item possible, well... you are right."

Chicago LS 14:04 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p

frank, very much agree

dc CB 13:58 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI

this of course is "bad news"....Oh My, the FMOC may say that the econ is Growing and the Dots and 6 Months and awfull other things.

Will the FBNY's RevereRepo for the Last Day of the Month Come to the rescue....Keep your eye out for the 10:30 AM Algos Gone Wild.

swiss frank 13:56 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p

Not sure I agree with that. Its money that could have / would have (?) been spent elsewhere. Its like a tax. False assumption to say that without the healthcare spanding gdp would have been negative. More likely its been an misallocation of resources.

eu pat 13:53 GMT April 30, 2014
Alert: Chicago PMI Next

so last data past...we will ignore them (was counted before)

John I am not analyst...There are plenty of analysts in this bussines)
I am just small trader..I will not write after and why but trade before...and not agree with this dirty practic in economy and po

dc CB 13:52 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p

Here is a shocker: for all the damnation Obamacare, which resulted in the biggest jump in Healthcare Services spending in the past quarter in history and added 1.1% to GDP ... real Q1 GDP (in chained 2009 dollars), which rose only $4.3 billion sequentially to $15,947 billion, would have been a negative 1.0%!

If It Wasn't For Obamacare, Q1 GDP Would Be Negative

GVI Forex john 13:48 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI

employment index jumps to 57.8 vs 50.0 in March

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI
Reply   



ALERT
63.0 vs. 56.5 exp. vs. 55.9 prev.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:42 GMT April 30, 2014
Alert: Chicago PMI Next

nh- as always insightful comments from one our most respected posters.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:42 GMT April 30, 2014
Alert: Chicago PMI Next

Chatter is Chi PMI is above consensus by a decent amount.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:41 GMT April 30, 2014
Alert: Chicago PMI Next
Reply   
Reminder, Chi PMI gets released to subscribers before being released to the public so by the time you see it, those in the know already know.

Livingston nh 13:34 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

The change in the interest rate expectations is the likely catalyst for forex volatility -- FOMC still not at full strength - even though "forward guidance" on employment has been binned doesn't mean the market will ignore any outsized gains - ISM figs on employment and inflation (yes INflation!) will be lead indicators - and a few core CPI reports in excess of 0.3 should make for an interesting summer for Yellen & Co

eu pat 13:32 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

I do not think about bottom of rang now))...ECB action only, not just verbal cry ( I hope they will not do this steps for getting economy to another sh.t)...war in Ukraine or some another panic... later on EU economy indicators will fall because they play stupid game with Russia

HK [email protected] 13:30 GMT April 30, 2014
They retreated B4 the battle started. What a joke.
Reply   


Ukrainian armed forces to hold military exercises in central Kiev during Wednesday and Thursday nights - @Reuters

They like a Stalingrad-style last stand:)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:26 GMT April 30, 2014
Shoot thyself in the leg!!!

RF, leave us out of it.

HK [email protected] 13:26 GMT April 30, 2014
Shoot thyself in the leg!!!



Probably Russian hackers will retaliate, if any blocking will push through.

May be this site will suffer too.

Possibly the whole the internet may be put to a halt.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:23 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

You can also say what will it take to get it down out of this range. I address this in our monthly newsletter coming out tomorrow.

Livingston nh 13:20 GMT April 30, 2014
Shoot thyself in the leg!!!

Relatively simple to block external interference by "owners" of license - how do they enforce their rights if Russia declares US decisions unenforceable - extraterritorial enforcement is always voluntary (sovereign is sovereign)

eu pat 13:16 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

if e/u will not break up levels today, so when?-- never

GVI Forex john 13:14 GMT April 30, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Summing it up so far...
Japan BOJ does nothing as expected. Mfg PMI data abysmal falling below 50 (49.8).

German data mixed- retail sales lousy, unemployment data improving.

EZ HICP- Mixed No compelling reason for ECB to ease.

U.S. data- mixed so far. ADP payrolls outperformed, but GDP was poor (As usual, I'm already reading reports saying GDP was not that bad. Typical analyst response to a shockingly poor headline number).

Still upcoming

Chicago PMI see 56.5 vs. 55.9
FOMC expect no surprises

Mixed data/news not painting a compelling scenario either way. I think this sets up payrolls on Friday as decisive. U.S. NFP has the potential to improve strongly, but it consistently has underperformed.

HK [email protected] 13:12 GMT April 30, 2014
Shoot thyself in the leg!!!
Reply   


Companies on US sanction list may lose American software licences

Russia’s companies from the US sanction list “at worst” may be stripped of the licences on software of American developers, deputy head of the main department for security and information protection of the Russian Central Bank Artyom Sychyov told ITAR-TASS.
“There is the risk that the companies on which sanctions are imposed may lose technical support and at worst - the right to use software licences of foreign, as a rule, American, developers,” Sychyov said.
He explained that the possibility of revocation of the software licence depends on the terms of a concrete contract. “As for the technical support, despite the fact that the support in Russia is provided, as a rule, by Russian system integrators, there may be problems with updating software, including updates that are critical from the viewpoint of information security,” Sychyov said.
Gazety.ru reported on Wednesday that Microsoft, Oracle, Symantec and Hewlett-Packard have joined the American sanctions and are preparing for switching off the software for the companies that are put on the sanctions list.

London Chris 13:11 GMT April 30, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

is anyone long gbpusd other than our always bullish forum friends in Indonesia?

Mtl JP 13:01 GMT April 30, 2014
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Monday's high: 1.38785 fwiw

Mtl JP 12:58 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p

john 12:43 that text is full of contradictions
real ...."advance" ... source data incomplete ... subject to further revision...

what is the point of releasing it and what is the point reading and reacting to it ?

Amman wfakhoury 12:54 GMT April 30, 2014
EURUSD 13858 wfakhoury DL

Amman wfakhoury 12:09 GMT 04/29/2014
Amman wfakhoury 08:49 GMT 04/28/2014
13858 wfakhoury directional level.
13904 confirmed and will be reached unles 1 hr bar closed below 13858.
Any deline below 13858 will return to it if 13904 did not reach.
The close of 1hr bar below 13858 means 13830 will be see again.
---------------------------------------
now any decline below 13858 will return to it if 13904 did not reach.
---------------------------
13858 reached again after decline to 13773

GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the first quarter (that is, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 29, 2014.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected a positive contribution from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that was partly offset by negative contributions from exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

-- BEA

GVI Forex john 12:38 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p



1Q14 (annualized) Hard to spin this as positive, even in light of the weather.

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p

Keep in mind U.S. GDP data are annualized. Most countries do not release data on that basis.

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT April 30, 2014
February 2014 Canada: GDP
Reply   




ALERT
m/m +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:30 GMT April 30, 2014
from the rock star of CBanking Carney
Reply   
''In an interview with the Bristol Post newspaper published Tuesday, Mr. Carney declared that “substantial” wage rises will be needed to ensure the economic recovery that began last year is sustained."...
-
sounds more like that numbnuts Ape

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT April 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p
Reply   



ALERT
+0.10% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +2.60% prev.

RELEASE: U.S. GDP


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

eu pat 12:29 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

looks bad for usd..

GVI Forex john 12:25 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014- ADP Private Employment

ADP data GENERALLY track NFP, but the large monthly revisions raise questions about the initial release.

GVI Forex john 12:22 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014- ADP Private Employment

API jobs U.S. data stronger than forecast.






Click on chart for more than 10-yr history





Direct links to primary data sources

eu pat 12:18 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

I closed long eur/usd and gbp/usd for now...holding only aud, nzd and short usd/jp..

GVI Forex john 12:16 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014- ADP Private Employment

April APD better than expected plus previous data revised higher.

GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014- ADP Private Employment Report


April 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment




ALERT
+220K vs. +206K exp. vs. +191K (r 209K ) prev.


RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®



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GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:04 GMT April 30, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

1.3854 = 76.4% of 1.3880-1.3771

eu pat 11:47 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

eur/usd is still set short term down...I am full against usd at 5 pairs...it is risk and I am not shure..ADP,GDP, FOMC...

uk rg 11:45 GMT April 30, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

depending on next data GDP short at 1.3883/88 or long at 1.3800/3785
Now in noman's land
IMHO

eu pat 11:45 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

In this market we can say only: we will see))

GVI Forex john 11:44 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014- ADP Private Employment
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (forum top)
EURUSD= 1.3852
GBPUSD= 1.6830
USDJPY= 102.53

US 10-yr= 2.71%
DE 10-yr= 1.52%
GB 10-yr= 2.71%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

PAR 11:44 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

Chasing stops above 1.3900 and maybe ADP and FED decision leaked to some HF currency traders paying for front running.

Mtl JP 11:41 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

pat 11:37 c viies 11:26
as good as any

eu pat 11:37 GMT April 30, 2014
eur/usd

are we ready for break up?..

Tallinn viies 11:26 GMT April 30, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
sold euros at 1,3847.
stop at 1,3887.
target 1,3775.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:03 GMT April 30, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Market got stuffed long EUR yesterday and now got stuffed short but only 1.3850+ would suggest a more serious squeeze. Resistance from yesterday is at 1.3840-55. The overnight high was 1.3815 so initial support that would need to hold to keep the focus away from 1.38.

Plenty left on the calendar today so more than enough for some movement.

Anyone have any trade ideas or scenarios to share?

GVI Forex john 10:53 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 Japan PMI

"...Japanese manufacturing firms saw a decline in output for the first time in 14 months in April. Alongside this fall in output was a deterioration in new orders which also decreased for the first time in 14 months. In both cases, firms linked the reductions to the rise in the sales tax..."
-- Markit Economics

Japanese PMI

GVI Forex john 10:50 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 Japan PMI

EARLIER: Japanese PMI. Second-tier release but it has tumbled to below 50... Chec out chart in Previous post.

GVI Forex john 10:45 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 Japan PMI
Reply   






EARLIER NEWS ALERT
49.4 vs. n/a exp. vs. 53.9 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release


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GVI Forex Blog 10:35 GMT April 30, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Eurozone inflation numbers was awaited since it was viewed as a decisive factor in next week ECB meeting. The EUR/USD barely moved in the session ahead of the data. The headline CPI came in a touch below expectations. However, Euro recovers initial losses after CPI data as it seemed to confirm ECB view that Mar 4-year low reading was due to 'temporary factors'. EUR/USD remain locked within monthly ranges

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone CPI bounces back in Apr; Shell hit by impairments in Q1; Daimler comes in mixed

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:21 GMT April 30, 2014
Euro zone inflation edges up, swift ECB action seen less likely
Reply   
This RTRS article is worth reading.

Euro zone inflation edges up, swift ECB action seen less likely

GVI Forex john 10:13 GMT April 30, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Lots of Key U.S. data today:
12:15 GMT- ADP see +206K
12:30 GMT- GDP see +1.10% pa
18:00 GMT- FOMC Decision see another $10bln taper

PAR 09:43 GMT April 30, 2014
Eurozone

Paroles , paroles , paroles is definitely working well for Draghi and Banco Montei di Paschi .

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:32 GMT April 30, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

High so far has been 1.3833

London Chris 09:27 GMT April 30, 2014
Eurozone

Hey PAR. Maybe the threat of lower rates or qe are doing a good job pushing rates down.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:24 GMT April 30, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

As I posted on GVIForex (note, 1.3830 so far capping the upside)

Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:09 GMT 04/30/2014 - My Profile
200 hour mva (1.3823) although slope of the mva line is a near flat line. 100 hour mva currently 1.3833

Resistance at 1.3830 blocks upside and 1.3840-55.

Is this typical or what?

Month end, holidays tomorrow, thin trading.

PAR 09:15 GMT April 30, 2014
Eurozone
Reply   
With eurozone economy improving , a lot of european stock market indexes at multiyear highs and peripheral Europe able to borrow at almost the same rates as the USA , no need for monetary experimatation by Draghi & Co .

GVI Forex john 09:08 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 flash Eurozone HICP (CPI)

Refreshingly, I believe the ECB cares more about headline inflation than core. Their official target is for headline CPI (HICP).

PAR 09:08 GMT April 30, 2014
EUR
Reply   
Stops on downside hit , now lets go for stops on the upside . Deflation is an imaginary problem .

" le malade imaginaire "

GVI Forex john 09:07 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 flash Eurozone HICP (CPI)

So headline EZ HICP rises, but by less than expected. It seems to be on balance the data give the ECB leeway to do nothing next week??

London Chris 09:06 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 flash Eurozone HICP (CPI)

John, is core more important than m/m?

GVI Forex john 09:05 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 flash Eurozone HICP (CPI)



EZ headline flash HICP (CPI) rises, but by less than expected. It remains well below ECB target of "just below 2.0%.


GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 flash Eurozone HICP (CPI)
Reply   




ALERT
Headline
yy: +0.70% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
CORE
yy: +1.00% vs. vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.




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GVI Forex Blog 08:54 GMT April 30, 2014
Strong German Unemployment Data in April. BOJ Policy Steady. Active Data News Calendar
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: EZ flash HICP, US- ADP Jobs, GDP, Chicago PMI, Fed Decision, CA- GDP

German April Unemployment fell faster than expected in data released today. On the other hand, German Retail Sales for March were weaker than expected, but this data series tends to be very volatile. Key Eurozone HICP (flash CPI) for April will be closely followed with implications for monetary policy. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen. Earlier today, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady, as widely expected.

Strong German Unemployment Data in April. BOJ Policy Steady. Active Data News Calendar

Zurich EG 08:43 GMT April 30, 2014
Alert: Data Due Next

Is the number leaked???????

NY JM 08:37 GMT April 30, 2014
Alert: Data Due Next

Market hedging against a HICP undershoot after German #s yesterday so surprise would be an overshoot or even an at consensus #?

GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT April 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   
No clear risk on or risk-off posture at this hour. Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly steady ahead of EZ inflation data and the FOMC decision later today. Equity markets in Europe are mixed. Far East markets ended mixed. U.S. S&P futures are lower. The peripheral European bond prices are mostly lower. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.70% 0bp.

Note: the color scheme of interest rates has been changed to reflect yields, not bond prices. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).

London Chris 08:27 GMT April 30, 2014
Alert: Data Due Next

Is anyone looking to buy or is it sell the blip on euro HICP?

GVI Forex john 08:15 GMT April 30, 2014
March 2014 German Real Retail Sales

as can be seen from the chart, retail sales data in Germany (and elsewhere) tends to be volatile. This is even true of the yr/yr comparisons.

GVI Forex john 08:13 GMT April 30, 2014
March 2014 German Real Retail Sales



EARLIER: German Retail Sales data weaker than expected.

GVI Forex john 08:07 GMT April 30, 2014
March 2014 German Real Retail Sales
Reply   



Earlier NEWS Release
mm: -0.70% vs. -0.70% exp. vs. +1.30% (r 1.40%) prev.
yy: -1.90% vs. +1.70% exp. vs. +2.00% prev (r 1.90%).


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GVI Forex john 08:02 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 German Unemployment



German Unemployment falls faster than expected (lower is better). Unemployment rate is steady.


GVI Forex john 07:55 GMT April 30, 2014
April 2014 German Unemployment
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
rate:6.70% vs. 6.70% exp. vs. 6.70% prev.
change: -25K vs. -10k exp. vs. -12K (r -14k) prev.


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GVI Forex john 07:52 GMT April 30, 2014
Alert: Data Due Next

key German Unemployment due at the top of the hour. EZ flash HICP due in just over an hour.

Johannesburg HvW 07:50 GMT April 30, 2014
GBPJPY 17300

Good morning to you Mr.Wfakhoury,

Thank you and continued success to you.

Best regards,

GVI Forex 07:40 GMT April 30, 2014
Alert: Data Due Next
Reply   
Focus this morning will be on euro area preliminary HICP - seen as a key gauge in determining if the ECB will provide more monetary stimulus next week. In a meeting on Monday with German lawmakers, ECB President Draghi intimated that QE was still a policy option, but an unlikely one in the near term, according to press reports. Other policy options, however, such as a cut to the refinancing rate or deposit rate are also viable options. We believe that an expected modest rise in annual HCIP inflation to 0.9% from 0.5% in March will provide enough justification for the ECB not to act next week. Weaker than-expected April CPI data from Germany yesterday, however, increases the downside risk to our forecast. Retail sales and unemployment data from Germany are also on this morning’s schedule.

Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook

Amman wfakhoury 07:31 GMT April 30, 2014
GBPJPY 17300
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 11:06 GMT 04/29/2014
17300 confirmed and will be reached.
any decline below 172.40 will return to it if 17300 did not reach.
The close 1hr bar below 172.40 means 171.80 is coming.
-------------------------------------------
Any decline below 172.40 ....etc
172.40 reached again from 171.93

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:26 GMT April 30, 2014
AceTrader Apr 30: Daily Outlook on GBP/USD
Reply   
DAILY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - 1.6813
30 Apr 2014 07:09GMT

Despite cable's brief bounce from 1.6792 (Europe)
to 1.6848 (NY) yesterday, as early retreat from Mon's
4-1/2 yr peak at 1.6858 suggests a temp. top has
possibly been made, choppy consolidation with down
side bias would be seen for retrace. towards 1.6762 sup.

Reinstate short on recovery, stop initially above
previous daily 1.6879 res (Nov 2009), break, 1.6900.

London 07:14 GMT April 30, 2014
Buy signals
Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 102.521 Target: 102.741 Stop: 102.320

The Bank of Japan finished its two-day policy meeting this morning and as expected, kept monetary policy unchanged. I expect them to hold off from any additional monetary easing until they can see more clearly the impact of the increase in the consumption tax on April 1st. Governor Kuroda’s view is that inflation in Japan is on a path to reach the Bank’s 2% target, so they will have to wait until that thesis is decisively disproved.

Posted with permission of global-view.com

Autotrade forex signals

HK [email protected] 06:42 GMT April 30, 2014
Chipping into a dying elephant
Reply   


Pro-Russian separatists seize government building, police HQ in eastern Ukrainian town of Horlivka, police say - @Reuters

The most it can bring some more sanctions for Russia.

But not a game changer.

Mkt takes inter collision among superpowers more seriously.

nw kw 06:10 GMT April 30, 2014
Audusd to 0.90 level? Your view please




xagaud chart not far from king support so aud/usd strength

bali sja 06:07 GMT April 30, 2014
Audusd to 0.90 level? Your view please

dont worry about that level, if we go above 0.9320

nw kw 06:05 GMT April 30, 2014
Audusd to 0.90 level? Your view please

aud starting to print good numbers/ supported for now poss. up for cat strength to/next china qe mid summer strength repotted

Singapore SGFXTrader 06:01 GMT April 30, 2014
Audusd to 0.90 level? Your view please

Thanks KW.

Based on weekly chart, I see 1200 for Gold over the next 4 - 8 weeks. For Audusd, I see 0.8750 over the next 8 - 12 weeks.

Cheers

nw kw 05:48 GMT April 30, 2014
Audusd to 0.90 level? Your view please

aud/usd and us gold 80% correlation in dally trading pattern so I trade xauaud from aud/usd

find aud for gold's flight plan

GVI Forex Blog 05:16 GMT April 30, 2014 Reply   
***Economic Data*** - (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) POLICY STATEMENT: REITERATES TO INCREASE MONETARY BASE AT ANNUAL PACE OF ¥60-70T (AS EXPECTED) - (JP) JAPAN MAR LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.1%E (tw

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: BOJ unanimous in keeping policy unchanged, market awaits outlook on growth/inflation; Japan wage inflation accelerates while manufacturing slum - Source TradeThe

Singapore SGFXTrader 04:52 GMT April 30, 2014
Audusd to 0.90 level? Your view please
Reply   
Dear fellow GV forum mates,

Will like to seek your view regarding AUDUSD level by

1. End of this week (NFP)
2. End of 1st week of May
3. End of May


My view is as follows:

End of this week (NFP): 0.9180

End of 1st week of May: 0.9150

End of May: 0.89 - 0.905

Appreciate your comments.

Singapore SGFXTrader 04:49 GMT April 30, 2014
EURAUD to re-test 1.50 level? Your views please
Reply   
Dear fellow GV forum mates,

Will like to seek your view regarding EURAUD level by

1. End of this week (NFP)
2. End of 1st week of May
3. End of May


My view is as follows:

End of this week (NFP): 1.495

End of 1st week of May: 1.50

End of May: 1.52 - 1.54

Appreciate your comments.

bali sja 04:37 GMT April 30, 2014
eurusd

LOL

prague viktor 04:34 GMT April 30, 2014
eurusd

maybe with a littel of luck we will push to 1,365 b4 the nfp

GVI Forex Blog 03:35 GMT April 30, 2014 Reply   
Today is big day for various kinds of data. BOJ will start the day with its rate decision

Morning Briefing : 30-Apr-2014 -0334 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:34 GMT April 30, 2014
AceTrader Apr 30: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD USD/JPY
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

30 Apr 2014 01:58GMT

EUR/USD - 1.3809 ... The single currency remains under pressure in Asia today after yesterday's sell off from 1.3879 to 1.3806 due to the release of 'soft' Germany's inflation data. Selling interest is seen at 1.3820-30 n more at 1.3840-50. On the downside, some stops are reported below 1.3800, 1.3790 n 1.3785.

Further sideways trading is expected until European open as market players are awaiting the release of German retail sales data at 06:00GMT. Germany and euro zone will release its unemployment rate at 07:00GMT n estimated CPI at 09:00GMT respectively.

30 Apr 2014 01:44GMT
USD/JPY - 102.50 ... Despite initial firmness to 102.66 at Tokyo open on improved risk appetite due to the rise in Nikkei, following the rally in global stock markets on Tuesday. Selling interest below yesterday's high at 102.79 capped dlr's upside. The pair retreated to 102.48 in Asian morning, however, trading is relatively thin as investors are waiting for the BOJ rate decision, to be released at around 3:00-3:30GMT.

Some market players are expecting the BOJ to deliver further "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing" (QQE) on Wednesday, in the form of a further 10 trillion yen increase in the monetary base, biased towards riskier assets.

Besides, BOJ Governor Kuroda is due to hold a post-meeting news conference at 06:30GMT.

Orders book shows some offers are tipped at 102.70 with stops seen above 102.80 but mixture of offers n stops is tipped at 102.95/00. On the downside, some bids are located at 102.30/35 n 102.05/10 with stops seen below 102.00 n 101.90

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
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C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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