Syd 23:53 GMT May 1, 2014
Australian Dollar Heading For A Fall?.
Reply
The Australian dollar has surprised many with its strength this year but analysts at Citi and ANZ think this may be about to change, and highlight stock picks on this basis.
Link
Cambridge Joe 21:48 GMT May 1, 2014
recalibration
Reply
Have done some recalibration because been getting shite results of late... so here goes.... Oil firmer from here.
A decent couple or three sessions.
Cable: I'm not a buyer.
IMO. GL
GVI Forex john 21:25 GMT May 1, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
May 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 2.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ/GE/DE/CH- PMI, US- Employment, Factory Orders
- Far East: No Major Data.
- Europe: EZ/GE/DE/CH- PMI, EZ- Unemployment.
- North America: US- Employment, Factory Orders, COT Report.
GVI Forex john 19:51 GMT May 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Looks like 10-yr going out at around 2.61% -5bps.
no reason to stick out your neck ahead of payrolls tomorrow.
dc CB 19:45 GMT May 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
As U.S. Justice Department prosecutors angle to bring the first criminal charges against global banks since the financial crisis, they�ll have to stare down warnings of uncontainable collateral damage.
�Nuclear Winter�
�Companies, especially financial institutions, will do almost anything to avoid a tough enforcement action and therefore have a natural and powerful incentive to make prosecutors believe that death or dire consequences await,� he said. �I have heard assertions made with great force and passion that if we take any criminal action, the skies will darken; the oceans will rise; nuclear winter will be upon us; and the world as we know it will end.�
Criminal Charges Against Banks Risk Sparking Crisis
dc CB 19:38 GMT May 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
can't even find a rumor to explain the move
it is the 1st of the Month...shows you where all that new "savings" money is going...wants to be safe
the truth will be told after tom.
the Flatner--sell 5s Buy 30s
dc CB 19:14 GMT May 1, 2014
SEC Slaps NYSE Wrists For Rigging Markets
not too bad discussion of the TPP... also the intv with Dan Collins in second half.
The O tried to get Abe to sign on to the TPP, even after sharing shushi, Abe demured.
http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/05/kr595-keiser-report-copyright-cartel-takeover/
Livingston nh 18:45 GMT May 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
see if fear of the unknown hits stox and helps USD
GVI Forex john 18:21 GMT May 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Nobody seems to know anything. Agree its crazy ahead of NFP. I guess its possible someone knows something, but I used the hear from people who knew first hand that the number was not even assembled until late this afternoon and that the President and Fed Chief did not get the number until late Thursday.
Livingston nh 18:10 GMT May 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
John - can't even find a rumor to explain the move // Feb 3 - bottom of stox meltdown the 10 yr nipped to 2.568
----
ahead of NFP ?? - high risk unless you know something
dc CB 17:12 GMT May 1, 2014
SEC Slaps NYSE Wrists For Rigging Markets
Reply
It is somewhat ironic, actually make that criminal, that two days after new SEC head Mary Jo White (whose conflict of interest list is so vast courtesy of her prior position as defending every Wall Street from their criminal acts she now has to recuse herself from virtually every enforcement action) solemnly promised Congress under oath that the "markets are not rigged", the SEC comes out swinging and slaps the wrist of the NYSE with an intolerable $4.5 million fine for allowing market rigging "for a period of time from 2008 to 2012."
Or in other words, the SEC is claiming that for 5 years the NYSE was aiding and abetting the very same rigged market that the SEC swears does not exist.
Two Days After Swearing Market Isn't Rigged
GVI Forex john 16:14 GMT May 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
10-yr now 2.61% -5bp. I believe the 2014 low is 2.58%.
GVI Forex john 15:55 GMT May 1, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
CNBC says their poll of forecasters now sees an average for the first revision of 1Q14 GDP to result in a level of -0.20%.
TIP: This is why we publish inventory and trade numbers. Higher inventories would be an addition to GDP while lower numbers reduce it. As for trade, A larger trade deficit is a negative while a trade surplus would be a positive. When the government prepares the first (advance) GDP estimate, it has to guess at a number of these statistics.
GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT May 1, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
U.S. construction Spending data today is expected cause a downward revision to advance 1Q14 GDP when we get the "preliminary" report due next. One major bank is calling for a -0.1% reading , another sees -0.2% and a third sees -0.3%, after the advance reading of +0.1%.
This could be a contributor to the hard to figure slide in the 10-yr yield tp 2.62% least. Strangely, the EURUSD has been slipping.
Any explanations for the slide in 10-yr yields??
GVI Forex john 15:29 GMT May 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Another mixed risk posture heading into jobs data on Friday. Yields in prime fixed income markets that are trading have fallen in an odd environment.
Those equity markets that are open are steady (U.S.) to higher (FTSE) equities ahead of the ECB policy decision tomorrow. Peripheral European bond yields are mostly higher. The yield on the U.S. 10-yr has fallen to 2.62%, -4bps.
Note: the color scheme of interest rates has been changed to reflect yields, not bond prices. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).
syd sf 15:16 GMT May 1, 2014
Summary So Far
Reply
whippy gold range so far - not giving many clues over in some of the Fx Landscape.
Aud/Nzd - would imagine close under 1.0750 would leave this vulnerable to liquidation tomorrow prior to NFP -- would probably anticipate NZD short squeeze late in the day... helping cross continue working its way lower.
Gbp/Aud - still looks on track for higher - RBA stuff next week - means less bull factors short term - and any NFP strength sees it reach t/p area ... lack of Gold follow through either way lacking much of a move at these +50 levels.
let the short term models take over and see what Asia brings.
GVI Forex Blog 15:07 GMT May 1, 2014
Reply
May 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ/GE/DE/CH- PMI, US- Employment, Factory Orders
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 2, 2014
GVI Forex john 14:59 GMT May 1, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
May 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 2.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ/GE/DE/CH- PMI, US- Employment, Factory Orders
- Far East: No Major Data.
- Europe: EZ/GE/DE/CH- PMI, EZ- Unemployment.
- North America: US- Employment, Factory Orders, COT Report.
GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT May 1, 2014
April 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
U.S./Eurozone PMIs. U.S. ISM PMI rises, Markit unrevised. In general the U.S. picture is mixed. EZ PMIs tomorrow.
GVI Forex john 12:53 GMT May 1, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
analysts say the higher recent numbers were a probably correction from the early April lows. This is a notoriously volatile data series and data need to be viewed in context.
GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT May 1, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Weekly Jobless claims data improvement reversing?
Click on chart for ten-year history
GVI Forex john 12:21 GMT May 1, 2014
Yellen Speech
Reply
Text released. Nothing on policy yet.
GVI Forex john 12:19 GMT May 1, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
nh- Thank you. I mentioned yesterday that I doubted it had anything to do with the tapering. That seems to be working well.
Livingston nh 12:16 GMT May 1, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
John - the FRB meeting most likely had nothing to do with Taper - implementation of QE3 and the Taper decision have always been FOMC concerns // the other meetings with this topic were held in 2011 so this may be about distortions caused in bank holdings and Treasury issuances - auctions are getting modestly smaller (deficit projections down 114 bio) // when do they start buying bills again??
Saar KaL 11:50 GMT May 1, 2014
All Pairs
Oil Longs
98.6
Target 100.67
Amman wfakhoury 11:20 GMT May 1, 2014
EURUSD 13865 wfakhoury DL
ge peip 09:37 GMT 05/01/2014
_____________________________
Consolidated in narrow path during asia at 13865 as I said..and wfakhoury directional level changed during Europe to 13878 , 1 hr close below it means 13844 will be reached first , close above it means 13900 is coming.
GVI Forex john 11:18 GMT May 1, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Otherwise we are in a mild risk-off session today. The FTSE has been leading us higher today and U.S. equity futures are up. Once again we are heading into a NFP report on Friday with dealers looking for a strong report. One of these times they will be right. A bucketful of money has been lost on this bet over the past five years, but this is the way that the markets are leaning for data tomorrow. There is no direct relationship between weekly jobless claims today and payrolls tomorrow. This is good because we are always looking for independent data to confirm each other.
GVI Forex john 11:10 GMT May 1, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Yellen's topic is Community Bank supervision so it could be a real yawner. On the other hand, she might take the opportunity to share something on the FOMC meeting that ended yesterday. Her predecessor (Bernanke) would usually stick to the stated topic, but Yellen is a major advocate of transparency. I doubt she will be providing any insights into the secret Fed meeting on Tuesday.
jkt abel 10:06 GMT May 1, 2014
buy audusd
Reply
bought audusd 0.9284, reserve to buy 2 more portions until 0.9250 today, stop 0.9217, target open
Saar KaL 09:30 GMT May 1, 2014
All Pairs
GBPAUD Short here 1.8200
tgt 1.8143 to 1.8110
bali sja 09:26 GMT May 1, 2014
buy cable, sell usd
Reply
gogogo cable, byebye usd
ding ding ding 1.70 is around the corner, will get there...each. data is positive for UK and each data is worse for US, how easy is it?
GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT May 1, 2014
April 2014 China PMI
China NBS PMI up slightly. Barely positive.
GVI Forex john 08:44 GMT May 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
The Heat Map market sample is relatively small toady due to the May Day observances. On balance it looks like a risk-on"
posture, but that easily could change.
Early in European trading hours, yields in prime fixed income markets are Mostly higher ahead of the U.S. markets. In Europe, the FTSE is higher. Far East markets ended mixed. U.S. S&P futures are up. The peripheral European bond yields are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.65% 0bp.
Note: the color scheme of interest rates has been changed to reflect yields, not bond prices. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).
Saar KaL 07:52 GMT May 1, 2014
All Pairs
Reply
all Pairs (Most)
Buying GBPNZD
Selling AUDUSD, Cable, EURUSD
Buying USDJPY, GOld, Silver
Trends for today
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:25 GMT May 1, 2014
AceTrader May 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, AUS/USD
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, AUS/USD
01 May 2014 01:54GMT
USD/JPY - 102.19 ... Despite yesterday's sharp fall from 102.67 to 102.03 in NY, dlr staged a brief bounce to 102.30 in Tokyo morning due to the rise in Nikkei following the strength in global equities, however, renewed selling there capped dlr's upside n price retreated as Nikkei-225 index pared most of early gains. Trading is expected to be thin in Asia as Chinese players are absent today due to Labour Day holiday.
Some offers are tipped at 102.30-40 n more at 102.60/65 with stops only seen above 102.80. On the downside, mixture of bids n stops at 102.00 is in focus. More stops are located below 101.90 n 101.80.
01 May 2014 01:32GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9297 ... Australian dollar maintained a firm undertone after the release of higher-than-expected Australia's import and export prices which rose by 3.2% n 3.6% in Q1 versus economists' forecast of 1.8% n 1.5% respectively.
GVI Forex 00:33 GMT May 1, 2014
Australia
Reply
NEWS:
AUSTRALIA AI GROUP APR MANUFACTURING INDEX -3.1 PT TO 44.8 AUSTRALIA AI:MANUFACTURING INDEX CONTRACTS MOST SINCE JLY 2013
AUSTRALIA AI: IMPORT COMPETITION INTENSIFIES DUE TO HIGH AUD
Source: Market News International (MNI) � A Deutsche B�rse company
many more chart points
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.