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Forex Forum Archive for 05/02/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


HK [email protected] 23:42 GMT May 2, 2014
OIL
Reply   


Common sense suggests that a Russian invasion will secure by the first place, all the gas facilities in Ukraine against local terrorism.
Once in Russian hands, supply safety will be higher than now.
So maybe oil will not rise too much or not at all.

Gold on the other hand is affected by different factors.

HK [email protected] 23:13 GMT May 2, 2014
This market is not too fast to bake in early expectations.
Reply   


Except gold, seems Mkt. players, want really to see first the gas pipes shut down.
They like first to see a Russian invasion, which now is more probable, as Putin has all the ingredients, including extending Russia patience by going first to the security council.

As usual, important weekend happenings happen during weekend.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:12 GMT May 2, 2014
Too late for FX decisions now, but the Russian army is expected to move.

(Reuters) - Dozens of people were killed in a fire and others were shot dead when fighting between pro- and anti-Russian groups broke out on the streets of Odessa on Ukraine's Black Sea coast on Friday, opening a new front in a conflict that has split the country.

Dozens die in Odessa, rebels down Ukraine helicopters

Cambridge Joe 22:54 GMT May 2, 2014
Too late for FX decisions now, but the Russian army is expected to move.

RF if it is ' the off', it would appear to have the market blind sided.

ATM oil looks like selling appr 30 mins in to the new session and USDX tho likely to have an early up spike softer til approx London open.....

If it goes, all those tank engines appearing like dozens of fire-flies from satellite thermal imaging.... difficult to hide.

It would almost certainly be on our TV screens, if it goes.

Let us hope not.



HK [email protected] 22:26 GMT May 2, 2014
Too late for FX decisions now, but the Russian army is expected to move.
Reply   


The first serious offensive by the government in Kiev and the dozens of deaths in Odessa sharply escalated the crisis that has led to the worst tensions between Russia and the West since the Cold war. The Kremlin said the battle for the separatist-held city of Slovyansk effectively destroyed the Geneva pact aimed at cooling the unrest in the deeply divided country.

Cambridge Joe 22:17 GMT May 2, 2014
Parachute ? Eject Eject !

CB my recent re-tuning has sharpened the focus somewhat and SnP sell signals have progressed down from the weekly which was supported by the monthly, to the 4 hour which is about 4 trading days away from being directly supported by the daily chart.

Things could happen quicker tho as sell has ( first phase) happened today on the hourly at 11:00 GMT.

30 min sell tripped in at 18:00 by way of FORCE MAJEURE !

It looks likely that there is to be some northward reverberation in the early stages of the new week.

Longs... kiss your A$$ets good-bye !

IMO ! :-)

GVI Forex john 21:24 GMT May 2, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


May 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 5. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP/GB- Holiday, HSBC PMI, US- Markit/ISM Service PMI

  • Far East: JP- Holiday, HSBC PMI.
  • Europe: GB- Holiday, EZ- PPI.
  • North America: US- Markit/ISM Service PMIs.


dc CB 20:04 GMT May 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Thina Margrethe Saltvedt and Aurelija Augulyte of Nordea Bank,

Russia as important oil as gas supplier to Europe
Disruptions to Russian oil flows will have huge impact on oil prices
Embittered political climate, oil prices at USD 150/barrel and high financial market uncertainty can tip EU back into recession
Oil price spike and flight to safety a recipe for broad-based USD strengthening and lower global rates: three risk scenarios
US shale oil or SPR release will not prevent oil price spike

Three risk scenarios

dc CB 20:01 GMT May 2, 2014
Parachute ? Eject Eject !

Big contract COT. 6 weeks and adding to shorts

Full SnP

GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT May 2, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 17:37 GMT May 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

2.584% lowest Ive seen today

dc CB 17:24 GMT May 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

RevRepo still pumping it up
$185.246bln

GVI Forex john 17:08 GMT May 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Early afternoon Ukraine worries persist 10-yr last 2.597%. U.S. equities are mixed. I heard nothing in the Obama/Merkel presser that is likely to defuse pre-weekend jitters. Recall Tokyo is closed on Monday and Tuesday and London is closed on Monday. Its logical to assume most will not want to run positions over this period.

GVI Forex Blog 17:05 GMT May 2, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
• Odds of an ECB policy response shorten following weak April inflation data

• Policy on hold at the BoE, but policy debate enters more testing phase

• Markets to watch upcoming services surveys for early signs of Q2 growth

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - WEAK INFLATION PUTS FURTHER PRESSURE ON THE ECB

HK [email protected] 16:56 GMT May 2, 2014
O. & Merkel very alarmed. Threatening with more sanctions against Russia.
Reply   


Shoot their legs again and again. What kind of people.

But more sanctions, and possibly retaliations may affect markets.

Cambridge Joe 16:08 GMT May 2, 2014
Parachute ? Eject Eject !
Reply   
SnP : Snorkel training required for habitual longs... IMO.

GVI Forex Blog 15:57 GMT May 2, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Currencies, fixed income and precious metals zigzagged in the wake of the jobs report as traders tried to get a fix on the quality of the data. EUR/USD dipped from 1.3862 to 1.3815 by the open but has returned right back to where it was before the report.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Excellent April Jobs Report Fails to Whet Risk Appetite

GVI Forex john 15:57 GMT May 2, 2014
Obama/Merkel Press Conference

Both events scheduled for 16:00 GMT.

GVI Forex john 15:55 GMT May 2, 2014
Obama/Merkel Press Conference
Reply   
Presser due shortly. Focus of markets will be on any Ukraine comments.

UN Security Council Meeting expected later. Called by Russia.

GVI Forex john 15:43 GMT May 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

RISK-OFF! Its a strange day when the U.S. comes in with a surprisingly strong jobs report and stock markets sell off and bond yields fall (prices rise).

Note the red in the yields in the prime fixed income markets. We feel for once that fixed income markets are in the lead. European equity markets are ending lower (except FTSE). That suggests "risk-off". The prices for peripheral bond markets are higher (lower yields). Far East equity markets ended mostly up earlier. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.60%, -1bp.

Note: the color scheme of interest rates has been changed to reflect yields, not bond prices. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).

Cambridge Joe 15:35 GMT May 2, 2014
For whot it whorth!!!

LUCKY !!

Cambridge Joe 09:58 GMT 05/02/2014
Looks to me like oil softens 'til around 14:00 GMT......

HK [email protected] 15:27 GMT May 2, 2014
The UNO will save.
Reply   


The United Nations Security Council will have a formal meeting on Ukraine at 12 pm ET today. - Lauren

HK [email protected] 15:19 GMT May 2, 2014
EURO, boring range.



A Friday patient trader will rather wait for 1.3890 to short Euro, to minimize risk significantly.

PAR 15:19 GMT May 2, 2014
Inflation and unemployment figures are rigged
Reply   
Labor force participation, measuring the share of the working-age population either employed or seeking a job, declined in April for the first time this year, helping drive the unemployment rate down to 6.3 percent, the lowest level since September 2008. At 62.8 percent, the participation rate matches the lowest level since March 1978 and is down from 63.2 percent in the prior month.


And as every normal person knows inflation figures are calculated by David Copperfield

bali sja 15:10 GMT May 2, 2014
NFP

too many are just trying too hard to justify buying usd, keep it simple approach is better: sell usd on every bounces

PAR, not just in may, it has been many many months like that and I dont see that change anytime soon, keep the same strategy guys if you want to make serious money

london red 15:06 GMT May 2, 2014
Yen
Reply   
102.15 now next key level 70 becomes a res. below 15 looks like we revisit 101.20/30 but not likely today so probably expect false break at best.
Others have given euro views inclined to agree on cap.

PAR 15:05 GMT May 2, 2014
US dollar

Real money losing confidence in Us dollar and big players either avoid Us dollar at all or hedge dollar exposure

PAR 15:01 GMT May 2, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Goldman pushing some hedge fund which is short Us treasuries out of the market . Remember MF global .

GVI Forex john 14:58 GMT May 2, 2014
Maybe this will involve Russia openly!

RF thanks for that story. I think it explains bonds and equities.

GVI Forex john 14:53 GMT May 2, 2014
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2.584%

PAR 14:52 GMT May 2, 2014
US dollar
Reply   
Looks like may could be a horrible month for the Us dollar .

GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT May 2, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Must be the Ukraine news ahead of the long weekend?

HK [email protected] 14:49 GMT May 2, 2014
Maybe this will involve Russia openly!
Reply   


'Many dead' in Ukraine offensive.

Many pro-Russia rebels have been killed, injured and arrested in the Ukrainian government offensive in the eastern city of Sloviansk, interim president Oleksandr Turchynov has said.

But, in a statement, he said the operation in the rebel-held city was not going as quickly as hoped.

Earlier, rebels shot down two Ukrainian army helicopters, killing a pilot and a serviceman.

Russia has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

GVI Forex john 14:49 GMT May 2, 2014
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2.593%

GVI Forex john 14:47 GMT May 2, 2014
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2.604%

GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT May 2, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

10-yr yield in a freefall? Below the lowest levels of the day now.

GVI Forex john 14:44 GMT May 2, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Hard to believe the 10-yr is now back at 2.617%

HK [email protected] 14:37 GMT May 2, 2014
EURO, boring range.



Gold warns about an escalation in the Ukr. issue. So Wafq. downside should be regarded seriously.

London Chris 14:31 GMT May 2, 2014
EURO, boring range.

Here we go again!!!!!!!

This is like a bad dream that keeps repeating. RF summed it up.

HK [email protected] 14:20 GMT May 2, 2014
EURO, boring range.
Reply   

EURO

Locked between a major Res. at 1.3895 and a currently major support at 1.3780, so expect to be cooked at this range for a long time.

Chances of breaking higher than the 1.3895, not looking that good at the moment.
So for those seeking volatility, better pack your things and go home.

Amman wfakhoury 14:14 GMT May 2, 2014
EURUSD 13790 confirmed
Reply   
13790 confirmed will be reached.
any rise above 13832 will return to it if 13790 did not reach.


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT May 2, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Factory Orders
Reply   



ALERT
+1.10% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. +1.60% (r +1.50%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Livingston nh 13:32 GMT May 2, 2014
Of Crystal Balls and Roses

2nd request ---
Swiss Frank -- coded message for you on political forum

GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT May 2, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Remember the Yellen rate hike six month after tapering comment? She wishes we won't! Her biggest mistake was probably telling the truth.

July 2015 Fed Funds Futures
now implied 0.475%
pre-data 0.440%
when Yellen spoke 0.350%

What this means is that the markets are gradually moving forward the timing of the first rate hike. Over time this could be USD supportive if the tightening timing continues to shorten.

nw kw 13:21 GMT May 2, 2014
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headline is a big beat= faster interest rate can come on line and that will stall market// that fed

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:19 GMT May 2, 2014
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Red, and others. Suggest reading our May newsletter, C'mon ECB, Send Us a Signal

EURUSD may be a matter of trading bid in an offered market.

C'mon ECB, Send Us a Signal

london red 13:16 GMT May 2, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

john, dollar should be firmer as headline is a big beat, tho participation and earnings are a drag and thats why it may be struggling for traction. while yen above 10270 then upside, if under i guess it will go much lower.
euro and particularly cable seem bid, the latter down to m&a interest, tho there comes a point of support when broken, flip market psyche other way. with cable i expect its 10 day/200 hour ma area.

tokyo ginko 13:11 GMT May 2, 2014
NFP

still looking at upside break

GVI Forex john 13:10 GMT May 2, 2014
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10-yr yield
pre-data 2.62%
Post data 2.68%
last 2.66%

I'm curious about how it ends the day. Perhaps something else at work here?

Im also curious about how EURUSD and USDJPY wind up.

bali sja 13:03 GMT May 2, 2014
NFP

yawn, perfect reentry chance for short usd especially for cable

Livingston nh 12:59 GMT May 2, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

stox may have a "sugar rush" reaction as celebration turns to "uh oh" - watching the 2 yr yield 0.45 (.52 last summer taper hi) and em currencies (SGD lead) as a combo of taper midpoint and fear of earlier rate hikes bite // ISM service next wk prices paid +++ // good thing got off the "forward guidance" employment target when it did

GVI Forex john 12:54 GMT May 2, 2014
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Nice correlation initially in S&P futures vs.USDJPY. At this point I am seeing divergence with USDJPY relatively higher post initial reaction to data release. This could be a scaling issue?

london red 12:44 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPUSD 16884 wfakhoury DL

200 hour tested in cable. a second test due, direction then set. if down then 16785/55 possible. but if reaction bounce taken in 50'5 then we recover the lot and probably hit new high daft as it sounds

New York USA 12:43 GMT May 2, 2014
EUR/USD Trend For Today: FOREX Signals
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD remains in a narrow range below the 78.6% retracement of the March to April decline near 1.3900
Our near-term trend bias higher in the Euro while over 1.3730
A push through 1.3900 is needed to trigger a new leg higher, but traction over 1.3970 is really required to confirm any sort of meaningful strength
A cycle turn window of some importance is seen next week
A move under the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730 will turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while 1.3730 holds.

Trading Levels:
Support: 1.3830- 1.3730
Resistance: 1.3900- 1.3970

For Signals Please take a look @ Marketlive365.com

FOREX Signals

Lahore FM 12:40 GMT May 2, 2014
NFP

NFP
Lahore FM 12:24 GMT 05/02/2014 - My Profile
tokyo ginko 11:48 GMT 05/02/2014
good day for 1892 to break out...along with USD ....GT all!

--
Ginko what about 1858 breaking?

CT LV 12:38 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPUSD 16884 wfakhoury DL

Thanks GT

Amman wfakhoury 12:36 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPUSD 16884 wfakhoury DL

CT LV 11:17 GMT 05/02/2014
_________________________
we already have 2 confirmed level 13844 and 13830 from yesterday.
if 1 hr closed below 13832 then is coming 13790

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT May 2, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Employment

10-yr 2.68%

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT May 2, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Employment




ALERT
NFP Jobs: +288 vs. +210K exp. vs. +192K (r +203K) prev.
Rate: 6.30% vs. 6.60% exp. vs. 6.70% prev.


BLS: Employment Situation Summary


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

london red 12:25 GMT May 2, 2014
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well HFE have 186k, they say adp average miss is 36k so that gives us 175/240 range. however only last week city were looking for a consensus towards 300k.
fwiw rare for in increase in adp to be followed by a lower nfp but 193k is still higher.

Lahore FM 12:24 GMT May 2, 2014
NFP

tokyo ginko 11:48 GMT 05/02/2014
good day for 1892 to break out...along with USD ....GT all!

Saar KaL 12:12 GMT May 2, 2014
Point of no return

GBPNZD...Lower end possible
1.9440
I really doubt will go less then that
tgt 1.98

GVI Forex john 12:11 GMT May 2, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

IMHO a 10-yr at 2.62% heading into NFP would seem to be inconsistent with a strong report?


I'm starting my pre-data watch for unusual price moves now on the off chance that the data is leaked. But we know that never happens!!

nw kw 12:08 GMT May 2, 2014
Point of no return

Russell 200 not in good shape at best just save the day

Saar KaL 12:00 GMT May 2, 2014
Point of no return

GBPCHF long with 10 pip drops for 1.49
up till 1.4745

GVI Forex john 11:56 GMT May 2, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Employment
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (forum top)
EURUSD= 1.3862
GBPUSD= 1.6865
USDJPY= 102.47

US 10-yr= 2.62%
DE 10-yr= 1.46%
UK 10-yr= 2.66%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

tokyo ginko 11:48 GMT May 2, 2014
NFP

good day for 1892 to break out...along with USD ....GT all!

GVI Forex john 11:42 GMT May 2, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

REFRESH FORUM MANUALLY TO UPDATE 3MO AVG (GREN LINE)

london red 11:36 GMT May 2, 2014
NFP

re q's 200/250, i think wage inflation needs to be considered as 250 wont give dollar much bang unless wages pick up/ barclays have 250 and so do a couple of thers think bar is quite high today. but if you see wages pick up, dollar will jump but also close stronger.

GVI Forex john 11:36 GMT May 2, 2014
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This is why I feel a NFP in excess of +250K would have a profound impact on the markets. I don't care what some say the market expects. Its my observation over the time that traders tend towards the status quo. Markets react to new developments. Just my opinion. Blue line is the six-month moving average.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:21 GMT May 2, 2014
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EURUSD 100 and 200- hour mva lie just below, currently at

1.3851 (100 hour)
1.3837 (200 hour)

Same for GBPUSD

1.6850 (100 hour)
1.6825 (200 hour)

CT LV 11:17 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPUSD 16884 wfakhoury DL

Dear Aman

Do you want to share the EUR levels with us too? please?

Saar KaL 11:17 GMT May 2, 2014
Point of no return

Gold wants 1320
Point of no return is
below 1283
maybe 1277 revisits could be as low as maybe 1270 to 1265

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:13 GMT May 2, 2014
NFP
Reply   
This is the same question I asked on GVI Forex

What sees a bigger reaction, NFP

below 200K
above 250K

Feel free to comment

Saar KaL 11:10 GMT May 2, 2014
Point of no return

AUDNZD...done with drops...day's low should be it
want 1.09 area

Saar KaL 11:07 GMT May 2, 2014
Point of no return
Reply   
EURUSD 1.3940 - 1.3960
Cable 1.6950 -1.6970
the drop will happen from there

london red 10:53 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPUSD 16884 wfakhoury DL

a good to strong nfp presents opportunity in cable. after lower than consensus construction, market itching to hammer cable, the direction of least resistance given marketing positioning. a good nfp should see cable head lower to 200 hour ma once thru 16850, with 16785/90 possible if 200 hour taken.
a weaker nfp may see usdjpy show the most movement with a move to 102.15. euro seems unable to break trend and may well be capped at 13885/139 leaving little opportunity to chase after the number.

Amman wfakhoury 10:51 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPUSD 16884 wfakhoury DL

16856 confirmed and reached.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:41 GMT May 2, 2014
Beware of thinning liquidity
Reply   
As John pointed out on GVIForex, Monday holidays in the London and Tokyo could see dealer participation wane early today once NFP data have been digested.

GVI Forex Blog 10:21 GMT May 2, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
FX continued its trend of low volatility in the major pairs with focus on US release of its April Non-Farm payroll data. The USD has been on the defensive throughout the week. Euro aided by fading of hope of immediate QE.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Pfizer confirms higher bid for AstraZeneca; EU PMIs mixed but rising; US non-farm payrolls ahead

Johannesburg HvW 10:05 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPJPY 17300

Most excellent Mr.Wfakhoury.

Continued success to you.

Amman wfakhoury 10:02 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPUSD 16884 wfakhoury DL

16856 confirmed and will be reached.
any rise above 16884 will return to it if 16856 did not reach.

The only one in the world who confirms the next level


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:00 GMT May 2, 2014
For whot it whorth!!!

Joe. Can you contact me

[email protected]

Cambridge Joe 09:58 GMT May 2, 2014
For whot it whorth!!!

Looks to me like oil softens 'til around 14:00 GMT...... ImO

Cambridge Joe 09:56 GMT May 2, 2014
For whot it whorth!!!

JP 17 Bn. not chicken feed... !

Yday on the radio, a report of how fraud in the UK, phising emails and scam phone calls to dupe old persons into revealing their bank details is worth some GBP Bn. 50 per year.

$Bn. 17..... Pah ! Chicken feed !

Mtl JP 09:45 GMT May 2, 2014
For whot it whorth!!!

Ukraine bailout of $17bn approved by IMF who warns reforms are at risk Guardian

Ukraine Reinstates Conscription Amid Pro-Russian Insurgency - TIMES
-
The END (of Nuland trying to export democracy) is near

Amman wfakhoury 09:34 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPUSD 16884 wfakhoury DL
Reply   
Mil 08:25 GMT 05/02/2014
_____________________________

16884 wfakhoury directional level.
It consolidates around since the last 2 days.
ready to move 100 pips or more.
no confirmed level yet..but we can use 16884 for the coming
direction.
the close of 1 hr bar above 16912 means we are heading up.
the close below 16856 means we are down.
we can use also 16884 as directional level after consolidation around it.

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT May 2, 2014
March 2014 EZ Unemployment
Reply   




ALERT
11.80% vs. 11.90% exp. vs. 11.90% (r 11.80%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:57 GMT May 2, 2014
Final EZ Manufacturing PMI's Mixed U.S. Employment Awaited

Coming into this week, street estimated were for a NFP increase of 210K. Undoubtedly forecasts have increased over the period to around 225K. I've been hearing talk (hope?) for a gain of 250K. Personally I have no basis for making a forecast as ADP data tend to be very unreliable as a NFP indicator.

GVI Forex Blog 08:36 GMT May 2, 2014
Final EZ Manufacturing PMI's Mixed U.S. Employment Awaited
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Employment, Factory Orders

U.S. April Employment data are due early today in NYC. The bias pf market expectations once again is for a strong reading following the ADP private payrolls data that saw a stronger than expected 220K gain in Private Payrolls. The problem is that ADP data are not a reliable predictor of payrolls. The recent pace of improvement in jobs statistics has been disappointingly slow.

Final EZ Manufacturing PMI's Mixed U.S. Employment Awaited

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:29 GMT May 2, 2014
Volatility

I wrote this article recently and it is worth reading for trading strategies in a low volatility market,

How to Survive When a Prices Don"t Move

Mil 08:25 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPJPY 17300

Thank you Mr Amman.
Would you like to inform us please the next confirmed levels for gbpusd and eurgbp.

GVI Forex john 08:20 GMT May 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   
Markets are back today after the May Day holiday yesterday, but many dealers are being cautious ahead of U.S. NFP data later this morning. Furthermore, many are still trying to figure out what drove the yield on the U.S. 10-yr Note to below 2.60% at one point Thursday afternoon in NYC. There is no clear risk-on or -off posture at the moment but the bias might be to the risk-on side. Early in European trading hours, yields in some prime fixed income markets are slightly higher ahead of the U.S. markets. In Europe, equities are higher. Far East markets ended up. U.S. S&P futures are up. The peripheral European bond yields are lower. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.63% +2bp.

Note: the color scheme of interest rates has been changed to reflect yields, not bond prices. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).

GVI Forex john 08:06 GMT May 2, 2014
April 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI

EZ final Mfg PMI. Flash estimate revised slightly lower...




EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMI. Germany revised down. France up from flash estimates...


Amman wfakhoury 08:04 GMT May 2, 2014
GBPJPY 17300
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 07:31 GMT April 30, 2014
GBPJPY 17300: Reply
Amman wfakhoury 11:06 GMT 04/29/2014
17300 confirmed and will be reached.
___________________________
17300 reached

The only one in the world who confirms the next level


GVI Forex john 08:00 GMT May 2, 2014
April 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI
Reply   




ALERT

EZ- Final MFG PMI
53.4 vs. 53.3 (flash) exp. vs. 53.3
France
51.2 vs. 50.9 (flash) exp. vs. 50.9
Germany
54.1 vs. 54.2 (flash) exp. vs. 54.2


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 07:54 GMT May 2, 2014
April 2014 Swiss PMI



EARLIER: Swiss PMI rebounds...

GVI Forex john 07:44 GMT May 2, 2014
April 2014 Swiss PMI
Reply   




Earlier data
55.8 vs. 55.1 exp. vs. 54.4 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

nw kw 07:29 GMT May 2, 2014
For whot it whorth!!!



hkd/jpy open interest spikes be big yen move and u/j correlated 90% but xaujpy pulling up most for now //looks to up side for a so so nfp// xaucad pulling down = cat strength//see if I got nfp pegged

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:24 GMT May 2, 2014
AceTrader May 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
02 May 2014 06:45GMT

GBP/USD - 1.6887.. Another piece of breaking news which may 'trigger' another bout of st speculative buying of cable.
U.K. drug maker AstraZeneca says board will review Pfizer offer. A spokeswoman for the company said today AstraZeneca board will be reviewing a sweetened takeover offer fm Pfizer but the company has no further comment at this stage.

Sterling was the 'star currency' in y'day's holiday-thinned trading. Despite initial quiet start due to closure of many major centres for Labour Day holiday, the pound sprang to life at European open n jumped to a near 5-year peak of 1.6921 after U.K. Apr manufacturing PMI beat forecast, however, the bullish euphoria quickly faded when long liquidation emerged, knocking the pound to 1.6876 in NY morning.
Cable has moved narrowly with a soft bias as Asian traders are on the sideline ahead of a slew of eco. data in Europe. We have several eurozone manufacturing PMIs ahead of the release of U.K. Apr construction PMI at 08:30GMT (street forecast is calling for 62.5 vs prev. reading at 62.5) n not to mention the world's most important data, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data at 12:30GMT. Initial bids are noted at 1.6870-60 with some stops touted below 1.6850, on the upside, offers are reported at 1.6910/20 n more abv, suggesting near term range trading wud continue but buying cable on dips is till the preferred strategy after clocking up 6 consecutive days of winning streak on Thur.

Sydney ACC 05:42 GMT May 2, 2014
Volatility
Reply   
G's Chris Weston comments on the lack of volatility in markets:

This week, EUR/USD for example has traded in a 114 pip range, which is a slight expansion from last week’s 70 pips range, which in itself was the narrowest weekly range since the inception of the EUR in 1999. Last week USD/JPY had its narrowest range since January 2012, while GBP/USD since 1988. The US 10-year treasury has traded in a 23 basis point range since the start of January – the tightest range over the time frame since 1978, while the S&P 500 can’t shake its 1840 to 1880 range.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-twe-high-on-pernod-20140502-37lig.html#ixzz30XAk4jgR

bali sja 05:21 GMT May 2, 2014
For whot it whorth!!!

no censored is worth it in Ukraine news until nuke is used, get over it

Syd 04:48 GMT May 2, 2014
There is speculation that China may be hiding $700B of holdings of US bonds Source TradeTheNews.com-
Reply   
(CN) There is speculation that China may be hiding $700B of holdings of US bonds - financial press- CBRC chairperson Liu Minkang noting China may hold $2T worth of US bonds in foreign reserves by end of Feb in a speech delivered in Washington DC vs $1.3T figure from US Treasury. - Speculation that China may hold US bonds anonymously or under other account names; Other speculated China may access through European bond settlement system in Belgium. **Note: In terms of Belgium's Treasury holdings, in Feb the figure rose by approx $31B to approx $341B, making the country the third largest holder of such bonds; According to some, the Treasury buying is being driven by countries which use Brussels as a financial center. - According to the US Treasury's Feb TIC flows report, China's holdings of Treasuries totaled about $1.273T. - In 2011, there was speculation among analysts that China's US debt holdings could be higher than the reported figures. The report suggested that China could be purchasing Treasuries through Hong Kong and UK. According to the report, a Standard Chartered analyst said that China's holdings of US debt could total about $2T. - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 04:40 GMT May 2, 2014 Reply   
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 PPI Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.2%E >- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAR HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 0.2% (3-month low) V 4.6% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN APR MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 48.5% V 54.8% PRIOR - (JP

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Australia homes sales growth slows, wholesale inflation accelerates due to softer AUD***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

HK 04:21 GMT May 2, 2014
For whot it whorth!!!



SLOVYANSK, Ukraine (AP) — Gunfire and blasts have been heard around an eastern city in Ukraine that has become the focus of an armed pro-Russian insurgency.

An emergency siren sounded in Slovyansk at dawn Friday in a further indication government troops assayed a military assault.

Vyacheslav Ponomarev, the insurgency-appointed mayor of Slovyansk, said self-defense forces had shot down two helicopters and taken one pilot hostage. He said no Ukrainian troops could be seen in the city. Details could not be independently confirmed.

An APTN cameraman reported seeing black plumes of smoke on the edge of the city.

The armed element of the insurgency is focused on Slovyansk, a city 160 kilometers (100 miles) west of Russia in which seven European observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe remain held by pro-Russia gunmen.

HK [email protected] 03:47 GMT May 2, 2014
For whot it whorth!!!
Reply   


A full-scale sweep operation is underway in the eastern Ukrainian city of Slavyansk, armored vehicles are on the outskirts of the city, a spokesman for the Slavyansk militia said Friday.
The Ukrainian authorities have used helicopters against civilians, he said.

Is that what Putin waits for??? Let's see.

dc CB 03:12 GMT May 2, 2014
Shoot thy legs.



Say Whot...OMG

get the guns grammy get the guns

Whot??? we can't got to MARS...goddam F**&n Ruskies

I dreamed that I'd get to Mars, I dreamed You'd get to Mars
God Damed Ruskies!!!!!!

HK [email protected] 02:56 GMT May 2, 2014
Shoot thy legs.
Reply   


Pentagon says it cannot replace imported Russian rocket engines.

The Pentagon cannot find a replacement for the Russian rocket engines it buys anytime soon, a senior official has revealed. The import of the engines has for now been banned via a court order lobbied by SpaceX and based on sanctions against Russia.

Washington may soon find it problematic to continue launching its military satellites, as a long-time supply connection between Russian and US defense companies has been halted and is being reviewed – all because of sanctions against Moscow in connection with the Ukrainian crisis.

Earlier ordered by US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, the review of US Air Force dependence on the Russian-made RD-180 engine, used in American Atlas V rockets, has not yielded any solutions.

“We don’t have a great solution. We haven’t made any decisions yet,” Frank Kendall, the US undersecretary of defense for acquisition, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg in a Thursday article.

Syd 02:26 GMT May 2, 2014
aud
Reply   
The prospect of increased income tax in the Australian Federal Budget on May 13 is "just another reason to maintain a tactically bearish stance" on Australian equities, according to Charlie Aitken, Bell Potter's managing director. "Let's hope I am reading this political risk wrongly, but be very assured if the 'debt levy' becomes reality in the upcoming Federal Budget it clearly has the potential to trigger a correction in Australian equities," he says. "Even the thought of it has triggered a mini-correction in banks and retailers." It has been suggested that a levy will be introduced on high-income earners to speed the process of reducing Australia's budget deficit. Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is flat at 5445.0 but has fallen as much as 2.2% after hitting a six-year high on Tuesday

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:14 GMT May 2, 2014
AceTrader May 2: Daily Outlook on Major USD/JPY
Reply   
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 102.28

Update Time: 02 May 2014 00:13 GMT

The greenback traded narrowly on Thursday after Wednesday's strong retreat from 102.67 to 102.03, however, as aforesaid sell off suggests recent up move from April's low at 101.32 has formed a temporary top at 102.79 on Tuesday 102.79, choppy consolidation with downside bias would be seen and weakness towards 101.96 support (last Friday's low) is likely, below would bring stronger pullback to 101.60/70, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, April's low at 101.32 should hold from here and yield further choppy gyrations.

On the upside, only a breach of 102.67 would turn outlook bullish for another corrective rise to 103.06, being 61.8% retracement of 104.13-101.32, however, reckon upside would be limited to 103.30/40.

dc CB 01:22 GMT May 2, 2014
Cmon ECB, Send Us a Signal?

Don't you get it...Gammy and Mario Hug Every Night...Abe too
They want to keep it close.
This is a MeatGrinder Trade.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:10 GMT May 2, 2014
Cmon ECB, Send Us a Signal?
Reply   
Thoughts from the Trading Trenches

In our May newsletter

C’mon ECB, Send Us a Signal?

There was a trader on the GVI Forex forum who often used the term, “bid in an offered market” to describe when a currency trades better bid when it is actually better offered. I would like to think this is the case with the EURUSD, which has confounded most forecasts by holding firm through the first four months although as of this writing it is barely up on the year (+0.6%)....Read More

C’mon ECB, Send Us a Signal?

 




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