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Forex Forum Archive for 05/04/2014

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GVI Forex Blog 22:27 GMT May 4, 2014
A strong US employment report failed to elevate the US dollar. The headline non-farm payroll measure easily beat estimates (288,000 vs 192,000), yet saw the initial market responses reversed within a couple of hours. Attempts at explaining the curious reactions included an escalation of violence in Ukraine, US treasury bond positioning, and the participation rate component of the employment report

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

dc CB 21:01 GMT May 4, 2014
What? Me Worry

whot a job he'd do on this one. lol

In memoriam. Glad he got to buy a ranch.

The New New New Book

dc CB 20:38 GMT May 4, 2014
What? Me Worry
�What we did was to take the absurdities of the adult world that youngsters were facing and show kids that the adult world is not ominpotent,� Mr. Feldstein told the New York Times in 1981. �We told them there�s a lot of garbage out in the world and you�ve got to be aware of it.�

Al Feldstein, longtime editor of Mad magazine, dies at 88

Cambridge Joe 20:20 GMT May 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

tks CB. Mostly way over my head..... but I'm picking up bits.

Where and how to discover where heavy stops are, how and why they get defended.... option expiry.... where and how to find current info .... ?

To me gold looks softer thru 1st session.

GVI Forex john 20:14 GMT May 4, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

May 2, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 5. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar


  • Far East: JP- Holiday, HSBC PMI.
  • Europe: GB- Holiday, EZ- PPI.
  • North America: US- Markit/ISM Service PMIs.

dc CB 20:13 GMT May 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report


Crude NYMEX the Commercials are always short...tells you nothing except for the degree


dc CB 20:10 GMT May 4, 2014
Threshold crossed - BoA
The Friday Bearish Outside Bar and close below the 3m range lows say that 10yr yields have returned to a downward trending environment. In the sessions weeks ahead we target the 2.420%/2.399% pivot zone and potentially below.


"Watch The Russell" & Don't Fade The Bond Rally, BofA Warns

dc CB 20:06 GMT May 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report


Open Interest in currencies financials etc is also a function of Contract Expiration....Quarterly. it will build and then collapse.

dc CB 19:51 GMT May 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

how it gets confusing


Cambridge Joe 19:08 GMT May 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

CB Velly velly interesting....

Your BP chart clearly shows Commercials buying low and selling high..... The interest flips over as the open interest crosses the line.

Thanks for the clear example.

dc CB 19:04 GMT May 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

FWIW the BP view Old School COT


dc CB 18:57 GMT May 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

The COT reports were orginally usefull back in the last century, BEFORE, bank funds got involved trarding comds.
Then there were 3 groups "reporting positions": The Commercials - those who grew/stored/bought the Ag product, The Large Specs, and the Small Specs.
Famous Trader Larry Williams made a lot of his initial money and Fame watching COT. Or as he put it ---watcing the footsteps of Giants.

The thing to pay attention to was the postioning of these groups. NOT the Net Long or Short of all the groups. When BAnks funds got oinvolved the COT report got really confusing and velly velly unreliable. If you go the the COT page put out by the CFTC, you will now see numerous "catagories" and also different sets of reports ====Agregated, DisAggregated.

COT reports are barely usefully in Currencies.
In Stock indexes...Esp the SnP...highly liquid Emini electronicly traded distorts the view. It's best to look at the positoning in the Bid SnP. (the one I posted on friday)

Again it's who's on what side that matters.

The 10Y chart above shows that the Commercials are LONG, but selling into this the Open Interest ---the skinny blue line ---rises.


Cambridge Joe 17:12 GMT May 4, 2014
OIl expecting an early spike followed by steady selling after approx 1 hour in.

Soduko ? Analyse this !

The 12 rotors of the Lorenz machine gave it 1.6 quadrillion (1.6 x 10^15) possible start positions.


Cambridge Joe 15:36 GMT May 4, 2014
AUSNZD buying approx early London and for the next while. 0804 or 0892 ?


GVI Forex john 14:48 GMT May 4, 2014
Fed's Richard Fisher (hawk)
Fisher says It Is Too Soon to Discuss Timing of First Rate Increase and that First-Quarter Growth Weakness Was Weather-Related. He said Economy 'Moving in the Right Direction' and that Strong Job Gains to Continue.

HK RF@ 14:28 GMT May 4, 2014
Probably more of Privatebank branches will go up on fire.

One of the main Privatebank owners is Ihor Kolomoyskyi an archenemy of Putin.

So just expect some more branches of this bank to go up on fire, naturally:)
Kolomyski referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "schizophrenic shorty" who was "totally out of touch, completely crazy".

� Putin said of Kolomoyskyi, "This is just a unique crook".

Mtl JP 13:36 GMT May 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

why, do you think, are the printers in Japan, the US and Europe having a hard time creating "inflation" ?

what, do you think, would unleash
- "inflation" ?
- how about "hyper-inflation" (prices rising at greater than 30%) ?

note: Janet or one of her spies is probably watching this chatroom

GVI Forex john 13:27 GMT May 4, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

So what are the highlights of the COT Reports this week
1) GBP longs recently had been building but very recently net longs have been declining.
2) AUD longs had been building but are tailing off as well.

My point is you want to buy or sell a currency when positions are being BUILT in your direction not when they are being liquidated. You want to trade WITH the flow not AGAINST it.

more to come...

GVI Forex john 13:05 GMT May 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

I published the 10-yr chart before it was completely ready. Each instrument has two charts. The first shows contract longs and shorts. The second (blue) shows NET longs. Each chart tells us something different. The first displays the magnitude of long and short positions while the second emphasizes the net exposure of the market. What I had not realized was how net short the market had become in the 10-yr note contract.

The right sidebar displays interest rates in an inverse scale which shows rates falling as you read UP the scale. This is because the PRICE of the contract INCREASES as its yield falls. Traders will want to BUY when yields fall to cover their shorts.

Bottom line there must have been short covering in the 10-yr Note contract as yields tumbled.

Cambridge Joe 12:19 GMT May 4, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

John thank you for the response interesting stuff !

For me it's always an eye opener to come across a whole new perspective on the market, one which I have never looked at before.

The UKR situation appears to deteriorate. We all need to hope that the situation does not go beyond a point which sparks off a chain reaction which runs out of control.... a kind of Military / Diplomatic 'Flash-Crash' from which there is no turning back.

The politicians, Tony Blair among other un-flushed toilets, want their names to live on and play Napolian or something...

In the meantime, the nuts and bolts reads something like this.

Mtl JP 12:00 GMT May 4, 2014
Expect Putin to come this week for a visit.

Life imitates art in Ukraine: Burning PrivatBank

what could Janet do ?
what would Janet do ?

HK RF@ 04:15 GMT May 4, 2014
The language that Russian officials have begun using makes it clear that the crimes the Kremlin has
The Ukrainian government is describing its offensive against pro-Russian separatists in the eastern part of the country as an "anti-terrorist operation," language that offends the separatists and Russia.

In turn, Russia is using even stronger language, saying that the Ukrainian military has launched a "punitive operation." While that may not carry any special meaning to Western ears, it has far more sinister implications for Russians.

A Russian friend of mine, professional interpreter Alevtina Potemkina, points out that the expression being used is karatelnaya operatsiya, a phrase that refers almost exclusively to Nazi atrocities carried out in German-occupied lands during World War II. She said she had never heard or read the phrase outside of the Nazi context.

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, used the expression multiple times in statements to the state-run news agencies


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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