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Forex Forum Archive for 05/05/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex 23:19 GMT May 5, 2014
RBA to leave neutral policy outlook and current language on AUD unaltered
Reply   
Quotes from RBS Global Banking & Markets:

- The RBA decision is due and we anticipate that the neutral outlook on the policy rate and the current language on the AUD will be left unaltered. The RBA will release its Statement on Monetary Policy a few days later, but the post decision press release that is given with the rate decision will likely allude to any possible adjustments to the outlook.

- While the first quarter inflation print underwhelmed market expectations, we don't see it as out of line with the RBA's current forecast. This likely leaves the RBA outlook as solidly neutral.

Source: FXWire Pro - Research & Analysis

syd sf 23:09 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

I'm just referring to Asia obviously .. London will have their own Ambush later hopefully . because its painfully slow.

syd sf 23:04 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

$yen to 30-35 // Gold to 02/03

everything else dying a slow death except aud which may move after rba... not too sure with direction .. but audnzd lower still.

GVI Forex Blog 21:20 GMT May 5, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
US equities rebounded during a quiet session for most markets overnight. Amid UK and Japan holidays, a consensus-beating US services PMI lifted US interest rates and US equities

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 21:09 GMT May 5, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data



May 5, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 6. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US/CA- Trade. PMI

  • Far East: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision.
  • Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales.
  • North America: US/CA- Trade. CA- Ivey PMI, US- 3-yr API Energy.


Cambridge Joe 19:55 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

SnP now looks like 20:30. Sold it anyway @ 1884.4

Oil firming next few hours 99.45 entry.

Good night.

GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT May 5, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:46 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

There are also Treas Auctions this week, 3, 10, 30.
The 10 and the 30 are new, not reopens, they go off Wed and Thurs.

That being said, Tuesday may be the best stox will have to give this week.

Cambridge Joe 19:21 GMT May 5, 2014
EURJPY
Reply   
eurjpy selling into Asia. Looking at 20:40 GMT. IMO. GL

GVI Forex john 19:08 GMT May 5, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


Cambridge Joe 18:51 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

SnP softer from 22:00 GMT maybe from approx 1891...95 ?

To watch for IMO. GL

london red 18:49 GMT May 5, 2014
April 2014 U.S. ISM Services PMI

re ism, yes employment component fell hence lack of follow thru on dollar. yen capped at 15. downside real while below there, some respite if above to 70. but looks like we see the 200 day some enough. dollar never gives up easily on this pair so still wouldnt be surprised to see test of 70 at some point first.

dc CB 18:48 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

There is an extremely high probability that tomorrow will be Tuesday.

GVI Forex Blog 18:33 GMT May 5, 2014
U.S. Service PMIs Outperform. Final Eurozone Service PMIs Due. U.K. as Well
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US/CA- Trade, CA-PMI

On Tuesday the second wave of PMIs (Service) will be released. It also features a monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia. No rate changes are expected.

U.S. Service PMIs Outperform. Final Eurozone Service PMIs Due. U.K. as Well

NY JM 18:03 GMT May 5, 2014
What ranges today?
Reply   
EURUSD 22 pips

GVI Forex john 16:11 GMT May 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

London reopens tomorrow but Tokyo is out for one more session on Tuesday. European equities are ending lower (risk-off?) while U,S. shares are barely changed. Yields in the prime fixed income markets are mixed to higher (risk-on?). The prices for peripheral bond markets are mostly lower (higher yields). Far East equity markets ended mixed. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.61%, +2bp.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green)and risk-off (red).

Mtl JP 15:38 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

worrisome news
US Ambassador to Ukraine: No evidence of direct Russian involvement in violence in Odessa - washingtontimes

Good news:
Lockheed sees Ukraine crisis boosting missile system sales: paper

Qtn remains who will foot the bill for Lockheed's missiles.


GVI Forex Blog 15:28 GMT May 5, 2014
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 6, 2014
Reply   
May 5, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 6. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US/CA- Trade. PMI

GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 6, 2014

GVI Forex Blog 15:25 GMT May 5, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Global equity markets got off on the wrong foot this week, as the fourth consecutive contraction in Chinese HSBC manufacturing data and worsening conditions in Ukraine drove investors into the arms of safe assets. Note that the benchmark 10-year yield was below 2.600% earlier this morning, but has widened out a bit as of writing

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Ukraine Chaos and Chinese PMI Data Restrain Global Markets

Mtl JP 14:58 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

john 14:23 //
Gold is off its earlier 1315
Crude - brent and wti - are down
SnP is up some
-
pray tell some of the "worrisome Ukraine news" that you are getting ?

and ... what do we buy / what do we sell ?

GVI Forex john 14:57 GMT May 5, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


May 5, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 6. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US/CA- Trade. PMI

  • Far East: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision.
  • Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales.
  • North America: US/CA- Trade. CA- Ivey PMI, US- 3-yr API Energy.


GVI Forex john 14:23 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Equities, 10-yr and USDJPY are up on better than expected Service PMI data (Markit and ISM).

"Risk on" or does this fade?

We continue to get worrisome Ukraine news in bits and pieces.

GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT May 5, 2014
April 2014 U.S. ISM Services PMI

Note:ISM Services PMI component FELL. Would not have helped us on Friday!

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT May 5, 2014
April 2014 U.S. ISM Services PMI



ISM & Markit Services PMIs. Both better than expected.

HK [email protected] 14:03 GMT May 5, 2014
Probably the best sign a Russian invasion is near.
Reply   


Escape of the banker: Ihor Kolomoyskyi.

Good reasons to be worried of Putin!!!

PrivatBank closes branches, cuts services in eastern Ukraine as attacks escalate.

Saar KaL 14:01 GMT May 5, 2014
Day's Trades

placed shorts eurusd
1.3977

Gold Long
1,268.00
1,270.00
1,272.00

EURUSD
SHorts
1.39603
1.3970
1.3980

NZDUSD SHorts
0.86871
0.86824
0.8677

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT May 5, 2014
April 2014 U.S. ISM Services PMI
Reply   



ALERT
55.2 vs. 54.0 exp. vs. 53.1 prev.
Employment sub-component
51.3 vs. n/a exp. vs. 53.6 prev.


RELEASE: ISM Services PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 13:49 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

you think... in an inter-connecetd world ?

Livingston nh 13:49 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

JP - money has to move - the three you have mentioned have bottled up money in different ways for different reasons

Mtl JP 13:45 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

why are the printers - japan, US , ECB - having trouble reaching their "inflation" number ?

Saar KaL 13:37 GMT May 5, 2014
Day's Trades

Not bullish Cable in general
but today 1.6860 to 1.6846 seems bullish

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:37 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

As posted this earlier on GVIForex



Video Market Update

Follow up to my weekend video. Hangover Monday, EURUSD 1.38xx closing range to be watched.

Livingston nh 13:34 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

For a few years treasury did not issue 30yr - Fed has been tightening these past few years as it was scooping up treasuries (aka "buying money") // now we have a shortage of 30 yr supply LINK so some folks are going to be buying at the top

Some folks have been disparaging the employment report but look at the not seasonally adjusted - 20 yr & over (real workforce)unemployment rate is under 6% - 25 and over is pushing under 5%

Services ISM inflation has been very hot see if it stays that way - Fed may have a preference rate but the real world will likely intrude on their ivory tower before long

Mtl JP 13:24 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Sell EURUSD
Entry: appraoch to 1.39 Target: 50dma Stop: around 1.3922

g/l 2 me

Mtl JP 13:14 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

ok... I ll answer my Q about "market logic"
IF YOU read the 10-yr yield drop as bond players betting AGAINST Janet it might qualify as "market logic"

GVI Forex john 13:07 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

S&P Futures at their LOD 10-yr 2.577%. Markert still unable to react positively to NFP.

Mtl JP 12:49 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

specifically what "market logic" is that pray tell ?

NY JM 12:44 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Red, that would be a logical scenario but one hard to bet on while in the FX (and global market) Twilight Zone.

Most glaring are US bond yields (10-year currently 2.58%) in a market where logic says it should be closer to 3.00% than 2.50%.

Reaction to news is what matters in this market more than the news itself.

london red 11:59 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

after a good nfp the market will be looking for a second strong month before talk begins of rate rises. however, until then, all data will be scrutinised for signals on employment and todays will be the first look at april from the services perspective. despite being a bank holiday in the uk, i would fully expect the dollar to show some strength if employment components put in a good show. the dollar hasnt really reacted to good news as often its been foloowed by indifferent or poor data, but after the strong nfp, the dollar has the chance to rebound if data follows through. yen and then pound possibly to show most movement with euro volatility subdued ahead of ecb.

GVI Forex john 11:52 GMT May 5, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Today sees a couple of Service PMIs from the U.S. (Markit and ISM). After the fact, it will be interesting to see if the employment sub-component of the ISM Service PMI is strong. It is more tightly correlated with NFP payrolls than the MFG reading. The MFG sector of the U.S. economy is relatively small in terms of jobs. It is interesting because of its cyclicality.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:48 GMT May 5, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
Max McKegg makes a bullish EURUSD call. See today's update + a free one month access on

FX Trade of the Day

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:39 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of eur/jpy
Reply   


raden

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:38 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of usd/jpy
Reply   


raden

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:36 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of usd/chf
Reply   


raden

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 11:20 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of gbp/jpy. have confirmed
Reply   


raden

Saar KaL 11:03 GMT May 5, 2014
Day's Trades

Silver Most likely a sell here till 19.00
probably a bullish week from 18.8 to 18.5
tgt 19.9

Kaunas DP 11:03 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of gbp/usd

Raden,
Glad to see you :) What about usd/jpy for quisk scalp? TIA

Saar KaL 10:57 GMT May 5, 2014
Day's Trades

If you want to long cable
it is 1.6844
for tops 1.6910

eurusd low today around 1.3824
1.3910 for the high

Richland QC Mailman 10:49 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of gbp/usd

Hi Raden, good Asian evening. I share the same view. Just thinking the optimum price we can enter a SELL. It could go up to 1.6890, make a U turn then dive. Or it can just fall from 1.6870.

May that magic box work for you! :)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:35 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of gbp/usd
Reply   


raden

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:33 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of eur/usd
Reply   


raden

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:32 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of aussie/usd
Reply   


raden

GVI Forex Blog 10:04 GMT May 5, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The key event for the week will be the ECB rate decision on Thursday. Analyst believe that there was a high probability of no action by the central bank this week and that the June meeting would be of more importance (fresh staff projections was released then).

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: EU Commission trims 2014, 2015 inflation forecasts; Wacker Chemie falls on lower than expectedQ1 EBITDA

London Misha 09:56 GMT May 5, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Long Legged Bullish Doji on Daily Chart!
USDJPY - Possible Bearish Shooting Star on Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - Possible Bullish Hanging Man on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart!
EURGBP - Market bounces up with possible Bullish Hammer off old Reverse H+S Neckline (0.6200) again on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Long Legged Bullish Doji on Daily Chart!
USDINR - Breaches key 50% Fib support at 60.09 but so far today stays above it on Daily Chart!
USDZAR - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart! Nearing Long MA support!
USDBRL - Follow on down to possible Bearish Shooting Star formation on Daily Chart.


GVI Forex john 09:39 GMT May 5, 2014
April 2014 China final HSBC PMI



Earlier: HSBC final PMI falls slightly from flash estimate...

GVI Forex john 09:34 GMT May 5, 2014
April 2014 China final HSBC PMI
Reply   




Earlier

HSBC: 48.1 vs. 48.3 exp. vs. 48.3 flash.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 09:31 GMT May 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   
Tokyo and London markets have been closed for holidays today. Tokyo will be closed again tomorrow. The markets are in a "risk-off" posture heading into the U.S. after yields on bond and equities fell on Ukraine concerns late Friday. In Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are mostly lower. equities are down. Far East markets ended mixed. U.S. S&P futures are down. The peripheral European bond yields are steady. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.58% -1bp.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).

london red 09:22 GMT May 5, 2014
yen
Reply   
101.85 touched once already, failure to bounce a second time probably sees 101.30/35 within a few hours. however one would think first we have a retest of 102.70 before we go lower.

GVI Forex john 09:02 GMT May 5, 2014
March Eurozone PPI
Reply   




ALERT
mm: -0.20% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.
yy: -1.60% vs. -1.80% exp. vs. -1.70% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 08:12 GMT May 5, 2014
The banks meetings

bankers killing themselves was part of small article in the front page FT piece today:

Stressed bankers seek ‘mindfulness’ boost - FT
City of London professionals take up meditative techniques
--
how zen meditation being embraced by the I-banks to try and reduce 'pressure'...

Saar KaL 08:10 GMT May 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Gold shorts from 1310 to 1317 tgt 1284

GBPNZD Longs from 1.9430 to 1.9390
tgt 1.9560
(This pair Bullish for a week IMO)
Should hit 1.985 in a week or so

AUDNZD Long
1.07 and below till 1.0660
TGT 1.0850

London 06:58 GMT May 5, 2014
The banks meetings
Reply   
This week brings four central banks meetings: a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Tuesday and European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Norges Bank meetings on Thursday. The market expects no change in rates or policy at any of them, so in all cases the focus will be on the statements and press conferences afterwards.


Posted with permission of global-view.com

Autotrade forex signals

HK [email protected] 06:29 GMT May 5, 2014
Euro 1.3890 maybe a nice short?
Reply   
/

Hong Kong AceTrader 06:12 GMT May 5, 2014
AceTraderFx May 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

05 May 2014
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas who is a voting member of the FOMC, said on the Fox News program Sun the U.S. economy is "moving in the right direction" and "getting stronger" as private-sector payrolls increase.

Fisher added "the private sector is beginning to hire," and "we'd like to see that continue and, in fact, increase."

On Fed QE, Fisher then said "I personally expect us to end that program in October." He then said "And then we have to see how the economy is doing, including these broader measures of unemployment, n where we stand, before we can talk about how we might move the short-term rate."

Despite euro's brief drop to 1.3812 after Fri's release of upbeat US jobs report, the single currency rebounded strongly to 1.3881 due to dlr's broad-based weakness on renewed tensions in Ukraine. Euro rose further to 1.3889/90 in Asian morning today b4 retreating to 1.3865. Some bids are reported at 1.3860-50 n more at 1.3835/40 with stops only seen below 1.3810. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3890-00 with stops seen abv Apr's high at 1.3906.

Trading is likely to be thin today as Japan and U.K are closed for holiday.

HK [email protected] 05:51 GMT May 5, 2014
USD/JPY next probably 101.60
Reply   
/

GVI Forex Blog 03:31 GMT May 5, 2014 Reply   
US Non-farm Payroll data gave a positive surprise but even then the markets pared down the

Morning Briefing : 05-May-2014 -0330 GMT

dc CB 03:03 GMT May 5, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

Williambanzai7

Art by

dc CB 02:57 GMT May 5, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

what happens when all the traders agree that it ain't worth shite

when no matter what

we WON'T BID

that be the scare that runs down the spine

dc CB 02:26 GMT May 5, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

Cambridge Joe 20:20 GMT
Where and how to discover where heavy stops are, how and why they get defended.... option expiry.... where and how to find current info .... ?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

000000000. . link
http://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/enigma-2002

http://www.bletchleypark.org.uk/content/about/FilmandTV.rhtm


and no the answer ain't there

Cheers

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:02 GMT May 5, 2014
Acetrader May 5: Daily Outlook on AUD/USD
Reply   
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.9262

05 May 2014 01:50GMT

Despite Fri's brief drop to 0.9204, subsequent
strong rebound due to dlr's broad-based weakness
suggest erratic decline from Apr's 4-1/2 month peak at
0.9461 has formed a temp. low there n gain to 0.93
13/18 is envisaged, above, 0.9345/50.

Turn long long on dips with stop initially below
said sup, break would risk one more fall to 0.9155.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:55 GMT May 5, 2014
China PMI

NEWS: CHINA FINANCE MIN: WON'T USE SHRT-TERM STIMULUS TO LIFT GROWTH

MNI

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:54 GMT May 5, 2014
China PMI
Reply   
HSBC CHINA APR FINAL PMI 48.1 VS FLASH 48.3; MAR 48.0

Mtl JP 01:25 GMT May 5, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

GVI Forex john 13:05 my JP 13:36 was addressed to you
-
On another note:
how do you choose which COTs to post on GV ?
--
side note: notice that the largest held short was the Pound . fwiw.

syd sf 00:11 GMT May 5, 2014
AUDNZD

also along the same lines as I was thinking - the Westpac Morning Report that is linked below says the following ..

"AUD/NZD 1 day: Broke down last night (neckline at 1.0765) and targets 1.0600 during the days ahead.

AUD/NZD 1-3 month: By mid-year we expect another stab at 1.05 below. The multi-year decline has already undershot fair value by around 7% we estimate. That said, over/undershoots have historically been worth 10%, suggesting there is potential for lower still, particularly if RBNZ has hiked three times by June."

ok - never talked so much about the audnzd cross .. lol .. all the best.

syd sf 00:08 GMT May 5, 2014
AUDNZD

to me the risk is it overshoots down to 1.0620-50

aud no rate hikes any time soon - rba constantly saying its overvalued - Aus numbers weaker - China numbers stable to weaker

NZD - another rate hike coming .. they do try to talk it down though .. how much is factored in.

so yeah its dropped from 1.08 to 1.07 already so it might bounce 20-30 points .. but the larger risk is still to the downside for me.

GVI Forex Blog 00:06 GMT May 5, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar cautious after choppy session on Friday * Upbeat U.S. jobs offset by worries about Ukraine * Failure to sustain data-inspired gains could limit USD upside potential

FOREX-Dollar steadier after post-jobs volatility; Ukraine in focus

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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