GVI Forex 23:19 GMT May 5, 2014
RBA to leave neutral policy outlook and current language on AUD unaltered
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Quotes from RBS Global Banking & Markets:
- The RBA decision is due and we anticipate that the neutral outlook on the policy rate and the current language on the AUD will be left unaltered. The RBA will release its Statement on Monetary Policy a few days later, but the post decision press release that is given with the rate decision will likely allude to any possible adjustments to the outlook.
- While the first quarter inflation print underwhelmed market expectations, we don't see it as out of line with the RBA's current forecast. This likely leaves the RBA outlook as solidly neutral.
Source: FXWire Pro - Research & Analysis
syd sf 23:09 GMT May 5, 2014
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I'm just referring to Asia obviously .. London will have their own Ambush later hopefully . because its painfully slow.
syd sf 23:04 GMT May 5, 2014
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$yen to 30-35 // Gold to 02/03
everything else dying a slow death except aud which may move after rba... not too sure with direction .. but audnzd lower still.
GVI Forex Blog 21:20 GMT May 5, 2014
AUD and NZD
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US equities rebounded during a quiet session for most markets overnight. Amid UK and Japan holidays, a consensus-beating US services PMI lifted US interest rates and US equities
Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts
GVI Forex john 21:09 GMT May 5, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
May 5, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 6.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final
Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US/CA- Trade. PMI
- Far East: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision.
- Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales.
- North America: US/CA- Trade. CA- Ivey PMI, US- 3-yr API Energy.
Cambridge Joe 19:55 GMT May 5, 2014
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SnP now looks like 20:30. Sold it anyway @ 1884.4
Oil firming next few hours 99.45 entry.
Good night.
dc CB 19:46 GMT May 5, 2014
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There are also Treas Auctions this week, 3, 10, 30.
The 10 and the 30 are new, not reopens, they go off Wed and Thurs.
That being said, Tuesday may be the best stox will have to give this week.
Cambridge Joe 19:21 GMT May 5, 2014
EURJPY
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eurjpy selling into Asia. Looking at 20:40 GMT. IMO. GL
london red 18:49 GMT May 5, 2014
April 2014 U.S. ISM Services PMI
re ism, yes employment component fell hence lack of follow thru on dollar. yen capped at 15. downside real while below there, some respite if above to 70. but looks like we see the 200 day some enough. dollar never gives up easily on this pair so still wouldnt be surprised to see test of 70 at some point first.
GVI Forex john 16:11 GMT May 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
London reopens tomorrow but Tokyo is out for one more session on Tuesday. European equities are ending lower (risk-off?) while U,S. shares are barely changed. Yields in the prime fixed income markets are mixed to higher (risk-on?). The prices for peripheral bond markets are mostly lower (higher yields). Far East equity markets ended mixed. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.61%, +2bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green)and risk-off (red).
GVI Forex Blog 15:28 GMT May 5, 2014
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 6, 2014
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May 5, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 6. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US/CA- Trade. PMI
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 6, 2014
Mtl JP 14:58 GMT May 5, 2014
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john 14:23 //
Gold is off its earlier 1315
Crude - brent and wti - are down
SnP is up some
-
pray tell some of the "worrisome Ukraine news" that you are getting ?
and ... what do we buy / what do we sell ?
GVI Forex john 14:57 GMT May 5, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
May 5, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 6.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final
Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US/CA- Trade. PMI
- Far East: JP- Holiday, AU- Trade, RBA Decision.
- Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Final Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales.
- North America: US/CA- Trade. CA- Ivey PMI, US- 3-yr API Energy.
GVI Forex john 14:23 GMT May 5, 2014
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Equities, 10-yr and USDJPY are up on better than expected Service PMI data (Markit and ISM).
"Risk on" or does this fade?
We continue to get worrisome Ukraine news in bits and pieces.
Saar KaL 14:01 GMT May 5, 2014
Day's Trades
placed shorts eurusd
1.3977
Gold Long
1,268.00
1,270.00
1,272.00
EURUSD
SHorts
1.39603
1.3970
1.3980
NZDUSD SHorts
0.86871
0.86824
0.8677
Livingston nh 13:49 GMT May 5, 2014
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JP - money has to move - the three you have mentioned have bottled up money in different ways for different reasons
Saar KaL 13:37 GMT May 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Not bullish Cable in general
but today 1.6860 to 1.6846 seems bullish
Livingston nh 13:34 GMT May 5, 2014
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For a few years treasury did not issue 30yr - Fed has been tightening these past few years as it was scooping up treasuries (aka "buying money") // now we have a shortage of 30 yr supply LINK so some folks are going to be buying at the top
Some folks have been disparaging the employment report but look at the not seasonally adjusted - 20 yr & over (real workforce)unemployment rate is under 6% - 25 and over is pushing under 5%
Services ISM inflation has been very hot see if it stays that way - Fed may have a preference rate but the real world will likely intrude on their ivory tower before long
Mtl JP 13:14 GMT May 5, 2014
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ok... I ll answer my Q about "market logic"
IF YOU read the 10-yr yield drop as bond players betting AGAINST Janet it might qualify as "market logic"
NY JM 12:44 GMT May 5, 2014
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Red, that would be a logical scenario but one hard to bet on while in the FX (and global market) Twilight Zone.
Most glaring are US bond yields (10-year currently 2.58%) in a market where logic says it should be closer to 3.00% than 2.50%.
Reaction to news is what matters in this market more than the news itself.
london red 11:59 GMT May 5, 2014
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after a good nfp the market will be looking for a second strong month before talk begins of rate rises. however, until then, all data will be scrutinised for signals on employment and todays will be the first look at april from the services perspective. despite being a bank holiday in the uk, i would fully expect the dollar to show some strength if employment components put in a good show. the dollar hasnt really reacted to good news as often its been foloowed by indifferent or poor data, but after the strong nfp, the dollar has the chance to rebound if data follows through. yen and then pound possibly to show most movement with euro volatility subdued ahead of ecb.
GVI Forex john 11:52 GMT May 5, 2014
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Today sees a couple of Service PMIs from the U.S. (Markit and ISM). After the fact, it will be interesting to see if the employment sub-component of the ISM Service PMI is strong. It is more tightly correlated with NFP payrolls than the MFG reading. The MFG sector of the U.S. economy is relatively small in terms of jobs. It is interesting because of its cyclicality.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:48 GMT May 5, 2014
EURUSD
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Max McKegg makes a bullish EURUSD call. See today's update + a free one month access on
FX Trade of the Day
Saar KaL 11:03 GMT May 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Silver Most likely a sell here till 19.00
probably a bullish week from 18.8 to 18.5
tgt 19.9
Kaunas DP 11:03 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of gbp/usd
Raden,
Glad to see you :) What about usd/jpy for quisk scalp? TIA
Saar KaL 10:57 GMT May 5, 2014
Day's Trades
If you want to long cable
it is 1.6844
for tops 1.6910
eurusd low today around 1.3824
1.3910 for the high
Richland QC Mailman 10:49 GMT May 5, 2014
my magic box of gbp/usd
Hi Raden, good Asian evening. I share the same view. Just thinking the optimum price we can enter a SELL. It could go up to 1.6890, make a U turn then dive. Or it can just fall from 1.6870.
May that magic box work for you! :)
London Misha 09:56 GMT May 5, 2014
Observations
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EURUSD - Long Legged Bullish Doji on Daily Chart!
USDJPY - Possible Bearish Shooting Star on Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - Possible Bullish Hanging Man on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart!
EURGBP - Market bounces up with possible Bullish Hammer off old Reverse H+S Neckline (0.6200) again on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Long Legged Bullish Doji on Daily Chart!
USDINR - Breaches key 50% Fib support at 60.09 but so far today stays above it on Daily Chart!
USDZAR - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart! Nearing Long MA support!
USDBRL - Follow on down to possible Bearish Shooting Star formation on Daily Chart.
GVI Forex john 09:31 GMT May 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
Tokyo and London markets have been closed for holidays today. Tokyo will be closed again tomorrow. The markets are in a "risk-off" posture heading into the U.S. after yields on bond and equities fell on Ukraine concerns late Friday. In Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are mostly lower. equities are down. Far East markets ended mixed. U.S. S&P futures are down. The peripheral European bond yields are steady. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.58% -1bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).
london red 09:22 GMT May 5, 2014
yen
Reply
101.85 touched once already, failure to bounce a second time probably sees 101.30/35 within a few hours. however one would think first we have a retest of 102.70 before we go lower.
Mtl JP 08:12 GMT May 5, 2014
The banks meetings
bankers killing themselves was part of small article in the front page FT piece today:
Stressed bankers seek �mindfulness� boost - FT
City of London professionals take up meditative techniques
--
how zen meditation being embraced by the I-banks to try and reduce 'pressure'...
Saar KaL 08:10 GMT May 5, 2014
Day's Trades
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Gold shorts from 1310 to 1317 tgt 1284
GBPNZD Longs from 1.9430 to 1.9390
tgt 1.9560
(This pair Bullish for a week IMO)
Should hit 1.985 in a week or so
AUDNZD Long
1.07 and below till 1.0660
TGT 1.0850
London 06:58 GMT May 5, 2014
The banks meetings
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This week brings four central banks meetings: a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Tuesday and European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Norges Bank meetings on Thursday. The market expects no change in rates or policy at any of them, so in all cases the focus will be on the statements and press conferences afterwards.
Posted with permission of global-view.com
Autotrade forex signals
Hong Kong AceTrader 06:12 GMT May 5, 2014
AceTraderFx May 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 May 2014
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas who is a voting member of the FOMC, said on the Fox News program Sun the U.S. economy is "moving in the right direction" and "getting stronger" as private-sector payrolls increase.
Fisher added "the private sector is beginning to hire," and "we'd like to see that continue and, in fact, increase."
On Fed QE, Fisher then said "I personally expect us to end that program in October." He then said "And then we have to see how the economy is doing, including these broader measures of unemployment, n where we stand, before we can talk about how we might move the short-term rate."
Despite euro's brief drop to 1.3812 after Fri's release of upbeat US jobs report, the single currency rebounded strongly to 1.3881 due to dlr's broad-based weakness on renewed tensions in Ukraine. Euro rose further to 1.3889/90 in Asian morning today b4 retreating to 1.3865. Some bids are reported at 1.3860-50 n more at 1.3835/40 with stops only seen below 1.3810. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3890-00 with stops seen abv Apr's high at 1.3906.
Trading is likely to be thin today as Japan and U.K are closed for holiday.
dc CB 02:57 GMT May 5, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
what happens when all the traders agree that it ain't worth shite
when no matter what
we WON'T BID
that be the scare that runs down the spine
dc CB 02:26 GMT May 5, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
Cambridge Joe 20:20 GMT
Where and how to discover where heavy stops are, how and why they get defended.... option expiry.... where and how to find current info .... ?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
000000000.
.
link
http://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/enigma-2002
http://www.bletchleypark.org.uk/content/about/FilmandTV.rhtm
and no the answer ain't there
Cheers
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:02 GMT May 5, 2014
Acetrader May 5: Daily Outlook on AUD/USD
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DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.9262
05 May 2014 01:50GMT
Despite Fri's brief drop to 0.9204, subsequent
strong rebound due to dlr's broad-based weakness
suggest erratic decline from Apr's 4-1/2 month peak at
0.9461 has formed a temp. low there n gain to 0.93
13/18 is envisaged, above, 0.9345/50.
Turn long long on dips with stop initially below
said sup, break would risk one more fall to 0.9155.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:55 GMT May 5, 2014
China PMI
NEWS: CHINA FINANCE MIN: WON'T USE SHRT-TERM STIMULUS TO LIFT GROWTH
MNI
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:54 GMT May 5, 2014
China PMI
Reply
HSBC CHINA APR FINAL PMI 48.1 VS FLASH 48.3; MAR 48.0
Mtl JP 01:25 GMT May 5, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
GVI Forex john 13:05 my JP 13:36 was addressed to you
-
On another note:
how do you choose which COTs to post on GV ?
--
side note: notice that the largest held short was the Pound . fwiw.
syd sf 00:11 GMT May 5, 2014
AUDNZD
also along the same lines as I was thinking - the Westpac Morning Report that is linked below says the following ..
"AUD/NZD 1 day: Broke down last night (neckline at 1.0765) and targets 1.0600 during the days ahead.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: By mid-year we expect another stab at 1.05 below. The multi-year decline has already undershot fair value by around 7% we estimate. That said, over/undershoots have historically been worth 10%, suggesting there is potential for lower still, particularly if RBNZ has hiked three times by June."
ok - never talked so much about the audnzd cross .. lol .. all the best.
syd sf 00:08 GMT May 5, 2014
AUDNZD
to me the risk is it overshoots down to 1.0620-50
aud no rate hikes any time soon - rba constantly saying its overvalued - Aus numbers weaker - China numbers stable to weaker
NZD - another rate hike coming .. they do try to talk it down though .. how much is factored in.
so yeah its dropped from 1.08 to 1.07 already so it might bounce 20-30 points .. but the larger risk is still to the downside for me.
many more chart points
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