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Forex Forum Archive for 05/06/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Mtl JP 23:43 GMT May 6, 2014
Cenral Banker mascarading as Communications Expert
Reply   
Fed's Stein: Central bank shouldn't worry about market reaction to communication

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Gov. Jeremy Stein on Tuesday night said the central bank needs to worry less about market volatility in its communications as he noted the feedback loop current policy encourages. "There is always a temptation for the central bank to speak in a whisper, because anything that gets said reverberates so loudly in markets," Stein told an audience at New York University. "But the softer it talks, the more the market leans in to hear better and, thus, the more the whisper gets amplified. So efforts to overly manage the market volatility associated with our communications may ultimately be self-defeating," he said. Stein cited as an example the jump in long-term yields last summer in reaction to comments from then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the asset-purchase program, even though the New York Fed's survey of primary dealers indicated little change in expectations of the size of the program.

Mtl JP 23:39 GMT May 6, 2014
NZ Central Bank Raises Possibility of FX Intervention if NZD Remains High

IF it is not sustainable ... why would they meddle (or intervene as they prefer to call it) ?

dc CB 23:29 GMT May 6, 2014
Scheherazade: "Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves"



As The Guardian reports, working away in warehouses, beyond the pages of Amazon's website, the seasonal workers and the effects that temporary contracts have on their lives are kept out of public's eye and often avoid scrutiny.

Andrew Cummins, 43, was one of these elves last year, working north of Chattanooga at an Amazon warehouse in Jeffersonville, Indiana. For three months, he stowed away clothes, working 40 hours a week at $10 an hour. He enjoyed the job and saw it as his ticket out of the Haven House, a shelter where he lives with his wife, Kristen, and stepson.

"They had this big hype that they were going to hire on and stuff and that didn't happen. They just worked you until the time was up and then they let everyone go,"

Among The Perks For Amazon's Part-Time Workers: Being Homeless

dc CB 23:21 GMT May 6, 2014
Scheherazade: "Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves"

NYTimes rolls out a Video
on the alibaba

The Grey Lady

GVI Forex 22:47 GMT May 6, 2014
NZ Central Bank Raises Possibility of FX Intervention if NZD Remains High

NEW ZEALAND Q1 EMPLOYMENT +0.9% Q/Q; MNI MEDIAN +0.6% NEW ZEALAND Q1 PARTICIPATION RATE 69.3%; MNI MEDIAN 68.8%

GVI Forex 22:46 GMT May 6, 2014
NZ Central Bank Raises Possibility of FX Intervention if NZD Remains High

NEW ZEALAND Q1 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.0%; MNI MEDIAN 5.8%

Syd 22:31 GMT May 6, 2014
NZ Central Bank Raises Possibility of FX Intervention if NZD Remains High
Reply   
NZ Central Bank Raises Possibility of FX Intervention if NZD Remains High DJ

Syd 22:28 GMT May 6, 2014
Kiwi Tumbles as RBNZ Refers to Possible Intervention -
Reply   
The New Zealand dollar slips as RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler attempts to jawbone the currency lower in a speech to dairy farmers. Wheeler says the Kiwi is overvalued and if the "currency remains high in the face of worsening fundamentals, such as a continued weakening in export prices, it would become more opportune for the Reserve Bank to intervene in the currency market to sell NZ dollars." He also underscored that the high dollar--along with new economic data--will be a factor in the central bank's assessment of the extent and speed with which the official cash rate needs to be raised.

Syd 22:25 GMT May 6, 2014
RBNZ Wheeler: Exchange Rate Is Overvalued, Not Sustainable
Reply   
WELLINGTON,New Zealand--The New Zealand dollar is overvalued and if it remains high the central bank could opt to intervene in the currency market, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler said Wednesday.

In a speech to the DairyNZ Farmers' Forum in Hamilton, Mr. Wheeler said if the "currency remains high in the face of worsening fundamentals, such as a continued weakening in export prices, it would become more opportune for the Reserve Bank to intervene in the currency market to sell NZ dollars."

In late 2012 and early 2013 the central bank sold local currency holdings to help rein in the soaring New Zealand dollar for the first time in nearly four years.

Known as the Kiwi, the New Zealand dollar has gained nearly 4% against a basket of currencies so far this year. The New Zealand dollar has pushed higher partly due to record high terms of trade as the agriculture-rich economy has been aided by a surge in demand from Asia's growing middle classes for dairy products.

Mr. Wheeler also said the high dollar--along with new economic data--will be a factor in the central bank's assessment of the extent and speed with which the official cash rate needs to be raised.

The New Zealand central bank raised rates in March and again in April bringing them to 3.0% as the nation's economic expansion gains momentum and inflationary pressures increase.

The move to increase rates comes in contrast to other developed economies around the world, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank both holding rates well below 1%.

GVI Forex john 22:11 GMT May 6, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


May 6, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, May 7. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Factory Orders, Productivity, Yellen testimony, 10-yr Auction

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- Factory Orders.
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Productivity, Yellen testimony, Weekly Crude, 10-yr Auction.


Livingston nh 22:11 GMT May 6, 2014
EURUSD

Re: elections -- could be an increase in right wing MEPs - Greece election may be more important because too many folks think austerity is a success - political process may show that to be "not so much" / elites vs great unwashed

and will the Scots show the Brits the door (not likely but... imagine)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:58 GMT May 6, 2014
EURUSD

The European elections of 22-25 May 2014 will give voters the chance to influence the future political course of the European Union when they elect the 751 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to represent their interests for the next five years.

Lahore FM 21:54 GMT May 6, 2014
wheeler
Reply   
RBNZ Wheeler talking nzd down.

Livingston nh 21:07 GMT May 6, 2014
EURUSD

Jay - this week has a lot of potential - stox, Fixed income and currency all trading w/o an anchor - Yellen may screw up again when confronted by Congress questions (political not economic) // stox down today on NOTHING / FI = demand for ___ despite ___ (fill in the blanks) // EUR - Draghi risk, elections (is this priced in), France vs EU budget guys // EUR/GBP in 82 danger zone - does MPC still equate currency level with interest rate?

confusion = volatility

dc CB 21:04 GMT May 6, 2014
Scheherazade: "Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves"

PS

that's $60,241 per IPO

OUCH bet that hurt real bad

dc CB 21:02 GMT May 6, 2014
Scheherazade: "Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves"

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority has fined Morgan Stanley $5 million, saying that the firm did not follow proper procedures in the initial public offerings for 83 companies including Facebook and Yelp.

Morgan Stanley Fined $5 Million Over I.P.O. Work

dc CB 21:01 GMT May 6, 2014
Scheherazade: "Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves"



“Alibaba is the fastest-growing Internet company in one of the fastest-growing economies in the world,” said Sameet Sinha, an analyst with B. Riley & Company, a boutique investment bank in Los Angeles. “They are like an Amazon, an eBay, and a PayPal.”

Alibaba Files to Go Public in the U.S.

dc CB 20:53 GMT May 6, 2014
Scheherazade: "Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves"
Reply   
It seems "market conditions" are right for the big one...

*ALIBABA FILES IPO INITIAL REGISTRATION $1B
*ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING 2013 EPS 57C
*ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING 2013 ADJ. EBITDA $2.67B
*ALIBABA HOLDER YAHOO BENEFICIALLY OWNS 22.6%

Now the spin begins... Full F-1 to follow

Why the Alibaba IPO could be one of the biggest internet deals ever (via WSJ)

Alibaba Files For IPO

Saar KaL 20:38 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

I will short 1318 area
silver at 19.78
Want to Buy Silver at 18.5
tgt 22.4
i think that 18.5 is the lowest point for a month

GVI Forex john 20:37 GMT May 6, 2014
Weekly US API Data
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -1.820 vs. -1.000 exp vs. +1.70 prev.
Gasoline: +2.450 vs. -0.500 exp vs. +2.000 prev.
Distillates: +0.763 vs. +1.500 exp vs. +1.940 prev.
Cap/Util: vs. n/a exp vs. 91.00% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

nw kw 20:35 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

tks man got gold top side pegged now I will no when golds overxstentid

GVI Forex Blog 20:24 GMT May 6, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
The US dollar and US interest rates came under further downward pressure. There was no obvious catalyst last night, although the mix of decent Eurozone data (PMI's, retail sales), weaker US small business optimism and analysts' downgrades of US Q1 GDP forecasts into negative territory may have helped

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

Saar KaL 20:22 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

71 is near impossible

This XAP/USD wants 1400 in Couple of weeks

Saar KaL 20:17 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

66 tops
for 6 hrs

nw kw 20:15 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

tks and is 1468 the last top can it move up past it than next 1484 in what time frame if up

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:13 GMT May 6, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
Closed 1.38xx 18 out of past 19 days (exception was 1.3793 close) until today. Close above 1.39 makes this a level to watch on a closing basis to confirm a break of this pattern.

Saar KaL 20:09 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

XPT/USD is this it?
for today a sell
1,458.7867 1,439.3628
for next day
1,449.3664 1,430.0678

nw kw 19:52 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

KaL platinum up but you will see that and it good to trace for gold I us it how far can it go up or stall tks

GVI Forex john 19:41 GMT May 6, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Saar KaL 19:16 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

NDX Long Here
for 3630 tops

GVI Forex john 19:14 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.593%

GVI Forex john 19:10 GMT May 6, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


Saar KaL 19:08 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Longing EURAUD
1.4850

tgt
1.5030

Saar KaL 19:00 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

ASIA EURUSD Range
1.3930 1.3872

cable closes
1.6966 1.6899
today

Livingston nh 18:59 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

ib - OK

Paris ib 18:57 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

nh - beg to differ. When you rely on foreign investors and most of the debt in public hands is in the hands of foreigners you have a big problem and a very real roll over risk.

I know that that isn't the official narrative but unless you want the USD falling through the floor the reality is the FED can't keep printing and - in fact - is tapering. That taper will go all the way to zero because the FED can't risk free fall in the USD because they need foreign investor capital - at the very least - to STAY in the U.S. and that is not a given.

nw kw 18:57 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

price of debt /as in the past when its to big that's when they will address it

Livingston nh 18:53 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

US borrows in the short end because it believes a recovery will reduce the deficit - the Fed has shown a willingness to buy l/t treasury debt - it used to buy only short term -- no reason it can't sell l/t paper holdings to buy s/t again -- the short term roll is the least of the worries

The Federal is Not a corporation, a state or an individual --- gov't debt is money and it can print money -- it can't default and it can't worry about the price of debt

GVI Forex Blog 18:52 GMT May 6, 2014
Inconsequential U.S. data. Final Eurozone & Service PMIs Better. Steady RBA Policy
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: DE- Factory Orders, Productivity, Yellen testimony, 10-yr Auction

U.S. March Trade data came in about as expected and thus are unlikely to impact significantly the 1Q14 GDP revisions.

Inconsequential U.S. data. Final Eurozone & Service PMIs Better. Steady RBA Policy

Paris ib 18:37 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Seriously, there is $4 trillion to be auctioned this year in the United States. Where they choose to place it makes a huge difference to the cost of funding. Right now a lot of roll overs are going in the very short end, but that just means they have to be rolled again very quickly. Personally I think the U.S. economic recovery is mostly not happening and that is likely to become apparent in coming months. I'm not a bear on the U.S. Treasury market - especially the long end. Still rolling into 7 year area would mean paying in excess of 2%. Further out, more expensive. But the U.S. urgently needs to extend its average maturity. Otherwise playing geopolitical chicken could be a very deadly game.

U.S. bond yields

Paris ib 18:26 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I'm not really interested in debt to GDP to be honest. I am interested in U.S. rollover risk. The United States can't roll over its debt in the overnight market. That really would be insane. So what the FED does with interest rates is irrelevant in my opinion. That's just a joke. What matters is if foreign investors continue to rollover or not. The 3 year auction today - highest yield since 2011 - was NOT a success in my opinion. And what happens in the short end is relevant. There might be a choice to roll over in the longer dated area. Then you would see the cost of borrowing rise from under half a percent to well in excess of 1%. And given the debt burden that would be nasty. Where are they rolling over currently? In the 3 to 6 months area mostly?

dc CB 18:26 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

this usually tails off as we move on into the new month, like it drops the 1 in front.

RevRepos in blns
Mon $199.895
Today 198.721

Livingston nh 18:20 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

ib - what if the Fed NEVER hikes ??? - what if the Fed buys direct for the next 10 yrs??? -- what was the 10 yr rate 10 yrs ago??? -- debt to GDP is a false metric

Paris ib 18:10 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

What I'd like to know nh is where does the U.S. Government roll over most of its debt. I get the impression that a great deal of the debt being rolled is being financed in the less than 2 years area of Treasury bills. There is a huge amount expiring this year... where do they roll it? Still at the very short end? That's taking a huge risk in the medium term. At this point they surely must consider rolling into longer dated maturities even if the interest costs will be MUCH higher.

4 numberss

Livingston nh 17:57 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

John - 10 yr is being bought w/ proceeds of belly sales since Yellen's "6 mo" warning?? - some flattening // SPX still has a gap open down ~1845 (almost filled last wk) - filled the 1870 lvl on open yesterday

Paris ib 17:54 GMT May 6, 2014
Global Markets News

Asymmetric warfare. The Yanks have guns, lots of them, and want that kind of warfare. The Russians play chess. The battle shifts to financial markets where the Yanks are vulnerable.

dc CB 17:49 GMT May 6, 2014
Global Markets News

It's not Tuesday anymore. 7 game winning streak broken in Stox.

Paris ib 17:45 GMT May 6, 2014
Global Markets News

The 'slide' to war is not helping the buck.

GVI Forex 17:33 GMT May 6, 2014
Global Markets News

(Reuters) - Both sides have been burying their dead as Ukraine slides further towards war, with supporters of Russia and of a united Ukraine accusing each other of tearing the country apart

Both sides bury dead as Ukraine slides towards war

prague mark 17:28 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

prague mark 11:38 GMT 05/06/2014
the whole WORLD is long USD and only CHINA is bid... so click click and chicken is busted... LOL

/////

wow... the whole W is still long USD and C starts to unload... click click and USD is KING... IMHO

GVI Forex john 17:03 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

3-yr 0.928%
bid-to-cover 3.40% vs. 3.36%

GVI Forex john 16:48 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

You can see from this chart how 10-yr note shorts were taken out over the last four weeks. This is not a pretty chart for many in the markets trading bonds. If traders were catching the moves, the positions would be a lot more stable. This opinion has been borne out by lousy earnings by major bank bond trading.






GVI Forex john 16:39 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr bond yields peaked early in the European session at around 2.62%. I heard they have fallen to 2.59%, but I never saw that. Last 2.599%. It looks like yields have been led lower by falling stocks (risk-off). They do not appear to be in the lead.

Of course this begs the question of why bond yields are down here when the Fed is about half-way through its tapering process. When the taper started, yields were around 3.00%. I haven't got a good answer to that question, especially as the U.S. economy seemingly has been improving. This looks to me like a market where traders keep selling every rally in the 10-yr note and keep getting blown out?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:30 GMT May 6, 2014
EURGBP
Reply   
Key level is .8164

.8188 and .8173 stand in front of it

eu pat 16:25 GMT May 6, 2014
how to trade

eu pat 14:04 GMT July 25, 2013
United States: Reply

....i am watching in my chart if green top of channel will be brokrn or not this/next week. And then potential from triple top is can be somewhere about 1.4050 at the end of the summer (if mr Bernanke wil be so kind and speak nice). If not, then I will watch yellow line...
_________________________________
I have not a crystal ball. Only tryed predicted..

One year later and eur/usd is still only a litlle be higher...If not ECB we have seen this levels last summer..I wrote about buy EUR from october 2012 (1.2750)...Doas not matter I am not patient trader for trends. It is not about what was but what will come..

Saar KaL 16:24 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPNZD is very very Bulsih
tgt 1.98 to 1.9960

eu pat 16:19 GMT May 6, 2014
how to trade
Reply   
how to trade

eu pat 16:13 GMT May 6, 2014
eur/usd

closed this sell at 1.3921 now...picture is not good for me...usd is in defensive and I will not go against trend...

I will continue only buy all dips against usd rest of week. ..so day trading in trending market (not both side at sideway market)

Saar KaL 16:09 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Now short cable till 1.6845
I think from there it go north again
poissible 1.7030
wont go higher then that for a while

bali sja 16:09 GMT May 6, 2014
Audusd to 0.90 level? Your view please

another crystal ball, yawn.. off to bed

bali sja 06:07 GMT April 30, 2014
Audusd to 0.90 level? Your view please: Reply   
dont worry about that level, if we go above 0.9320

bali sja 16:07 GMT May 6, 2014
byebye usdcad

crystal ball :)

bali sja 09:19 GMT April 29, 2014
byebye usdcad: Reply   
usdcad is breaking down, back to 1.0850?

GVI Forex john 15:50 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

European equities are ending lower (risk-off?) while U,S. shares ease. Most major equity markets in the Far East were closed for seasonal holidays today. Yields in the prime fixed income markets are about evenly mixed between higher and lower. The yields for peripheral bond markets are lower. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.60%, -1bp. A U.S. 3-yr auction is due shortly.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).

Livingston nh 15:37 GMT May 6, 2014
GBPUSD 1.70

everything old is new again --

"Athens 18:28 GMT September 28, 1998
Atlanta, as I wrote the other day the GBP may be a currency that likes false breaks, but nobody can say beforehand when a break is false and when true. I agree with you that sterling has no good reason to go to 1.76 (I have already called 1.7035-85 very tough). However, I have no doubt that if it tackles the old top some people will pay their stops and go pushing is a bit higher (and I won't blame them with this currency)."

was above 1.70 from end of 2003 until Lehman - has been below since - maybe third time the charm

GVI Forex Blog 15:28 GMT May 6, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The greenback remained on defensive as US yields remain lower and ECB rhetoric against the strong euro morphs into a grudging acceptance that the FX appreciation stems from a return of confidence

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Good Data Fails to Help US and Euro Equities Catch a Bid

NY JM 15:26 GMT May 6, 2014
GBPUSD 1.70

Proving to be tough on first stab (options protection?). Needs to maintain 1.6950+ for a strong bid and to keep 1.70 on the radar.

GVI Forex john 15:13 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

U.S. 10-yr back testing 2.60% (2.599%) from 2.62% earlier. Risk off as equity prices erode.

eu pat 14:57 GMT May 6, 2014
First wave: The Cossacks are coming on Russian military trucks.

we will see on 9th of may...

GVI Forex Blog 14:46 GMT May 6, 2014 Reply   
May 6, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, May 7. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Factory Orders, Productivity, Yellen testimony, 10-yr Auction

GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 7, 2014

HK [email protected] 14:45 GMT May 6, 2014
First wave: The Cossacks are coming on Russian military trucks.


Mtl JP 14:20
Probably this news is:

1) Not yet confirmed from reliable sources.

2) Maybe not so important:)

GVI Forex john 14:43 GMT May 6, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


May 6, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, May 7. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Factory Orders, Productivity, Yellen testimony, 10-yr Auction

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- Factory Orders.
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Productivity, Yellen testimony, Weekly Crude, 10-yr Auction.


ge peip 14:38 GMT May 6, 2014
EURUSD 13943

tks Mr Ammann

bali sja 14:25 GMT May 6, 2014
GBPUSD 1.70

true, nothing important 1.70, more likely we will carry on to 1.72-1.73 next, gl gt

Mtl JP 14:20 GMT May 6, 2014
First wave: The Cossacks are coming on Russian military trucks.

HK [email protected] suggest watch Gold, brent, yen ... their price movements will probably tell all u need to know much quicker than any reuters headline that can reach you

Amman wfakhoury 14:14 GMT May 6, 2014
GBPUSD 17022
Reply   
17022 confirmed and will be reached unless 1hr bar closed below 16982.
any decline below 16982 will return to it if 17022 did not reach.
if 1 hr bar closed below 16982 then 16942 will be reached.


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


HK [email protected] 14:13 GMT May 6, 2014
First wave: The Cossacks are coming on Russian military trucks.
Reply   


Let's see if it is something serious?

LINK

GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT May 6, 2014
April 2014 Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)

The non-seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI was only 51.1. Do you trust their seasonal adjustments?

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT May 6, 2014
GBPUSD 1.70



Something to think about with a NEW long GBP trade is that COT reports show the markets have extended longs in GBP for a good while. So people have already got them...



GVI Forex john 14:04 GMT May 6, 2014
April 2014 Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)



Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Ivey PMI weaker than expected in April.



Amman wfakhoury 14:02 GMT May 6, 2014
EURUSD 13943
Reply   
ge peip 11:53 GMT 05/06/2014
____________________________
13943 confirmed early in the morning and reached...it is the top for todayany rise above it will return to it..it is now heading again to 13902 unless 1 hr bar closed above 13943.
Also we have previous level to be reached 13832

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:50 GMT May 6, 2014
GBPUSD 1.70

Kevin, monthly charts show 1.7043 as the key level above 1.70.

HK Kevin 13:47 GMT May 6, 2014
GBPUSD 1.70

1.70 is only a psychological level for GBP/USD, no significant importance in the weekly chart. However, if Cable is unable to test this level and make a reversal day, then you know what it mean.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:41 GMT May 6, 2014
AUD Forecast
Reply   
This is Max McKegg's AUD call, which similar to his EURUSD call, is working out (AUD currently .9355)

Today’s FX Thoughts - May 6th
AUD/USD:

Amidst a predominantly Bearish market sentiment, Ozzy has recovered nicely from just about the Key .9200 level and with support now about .9235/.9220, looking for rally
above .9300/10 resistance to herald a swift recovery onto .9360/.9375; with the potential for .9460+

To get a free month access to max's daily forecasts, click on the following

FX Trade of the Day

GVI Forex john 12:59 GMT May 6, 2014
April 2014 Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)
Reply   
The Canadian Ivey PMI is due next in about an hour. This figure tends to be very volatile and as a result does not have a lot of value. imho.

bali sja 12:47 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

praque viktor, sorry I am too busy collecting money from the long side to even consider gambling from short side

when the time is right, i can be on the short side or even stay long, there is no point playing guessing game with levels, have to have reason to do something, or else just don't do it at all

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:40 GMT May 6, 2014
GBPUSD 1.70
Reply   
Last time GBPUSD was above 1.70 was in August 2009 (high 1.7043) and that was a very brief visit. Prior to that the last time above it was October 2008

GVI Forex john 12:40 GMT May 6, 2014
March 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade



U.S. Trade Deficit declines as forecast.

GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT May 6, 2014
March 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade

not much newsworthy in the trade figures.

GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT May 6, 2014
March 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade
Reply   



ALERT
-40.4 vs. -40.4 exp. vs. -42.3 (r -41.87prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
+.079bln vs. -0.40 exp. vs. -0.290 (r +0.850 ) prev.


U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 11:55 GMT May 6, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Reply   
Beautiful S&P vs. USDJPY correlation over the last several hours. So if S&P continues soft USDJPY could continue south.

Trade figures today are unlikely to be a major influence. One thing you might look for is the likely impact of this March data on the next revision to 1Q14 GDP. The trade balance is an ADDITION to GDP, so a deficit is a SUBTRACTION. A larger than predicted deficit would reduce GDP, while a smaller than forecasted shortfall would be a net ADDITION.

ge peip 11:53 GMT May 6, 2014
GBP/JPY summary

any level for EUR$ please?

tks

prague viktor 11:46 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

bali sja i must say u where on the right side all the time ,BUT at one point we must consider to short the EURO and the Q is from 1,43-1,46-1,49 which level u prefer TIA

nw kw 11:46 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

CHINA is bid... so chicken is supported /china will not send its investment to hell

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:44 GMT May 6, 2014
EURUSD heading for 1.40?
Reply   
Max has been dead on since Friday and continues with his bullish EURUSD call. See today's update and get free one month access.

EURUSD heading for 1.40?

GVI Forex john 11:42 GMT May 6, 2014
Yellen Testimony
Reply   
May 7
Testimony--Chair Janet L. Yellen
The Economic Outlook
Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress
10 a.m.

Amman wfakhoury 11:42 GMT May 6, 2014
GBP/JPY summary

Amman wfakhoury 08:33 GMT 05/06/2014
Johannesburg HvW 08:05 GMT 05/06/2014
----------------------------------------
172.85 confirmed and reached...closing 1 hr bar above it
means 173.11 is coming ..colsing below it means return to 172.60
----------------------------
172.60 reached

prague mark 11:38 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

the whole WORLD is long USD and only CHINA is bid... so click click and chicken is busted... LOL

Saar KaL 11:36 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Looking at 1.65 cable end of may
possibly 1.6340
for another round of bullishness
into 1.72
then it is done till august 1.55

prague viktor 11:35 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

U were right and i was wrong B4 NFP i was sure thats the number will come strong and i thought the USD will rise but u were on the right side keep selling the USD is the best way to make money.

nw kw 11:23 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

the whole GV and GVI are probably long usd

not me so pike your info

nw kw 11:20 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

there is more than one way to skin a cat

nw kw 11:18 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

oil cot ?????????

nw kw 11:15 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

commodities trump fx biggest shift is us oil so-- a week us wins

nw kw 11:04 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

abel do you no why

nw kw 10:53 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

ed kw 14:20 GMT June 21, 2013
Germany: Reply
Dax going to 7400 see


------------40 old news

jkt abel 10:50 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

sja, the whole GV and GVI are probably long usd ;)
i am with you, no sweat 1.40 and 1.70 will be hit by this friday if not tonight?

Saar KaL 10:41 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD Longs today
rocks
1.09663 1.0937
1.09724 1.0931
1.09785 1.0925
1.09845 1.0919
1.09906 1.0913
1.09967 1.0907

1.10 is very likely tgt

bali sja 10:39 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

above 1.40 means 1.42 before Draghi says anything

Saar KaL 10:35 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

cable stops above 1.70
is a very good idea
could get volatile for next 2 hrs
whatever you do 1.6863
Do not buy it or short it

GVI Forex Blog 10:30 GMT May 6, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The greenback remained on the defensive with the USD Index hitting a 6-month low. Better European Services PMI helped to propel the EUR/USD above the 1/39 handle for a multi-week high.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: EU service PMIs generally better than expected; Barclays, Lufthansa and Adidas all fail to meet estimates

Saar KaL 10:28 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

My best Estimated range for us close today is 1.3888 to 1.3871
Seems Like a boring US session coming up

Saar KaL 10:18 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Looks Like Gold is not done yet
for a day or 2
I will Long
1,315.61856 1,304.8156
1,318.68137 1,301.7528
1,321.74419 1,298.6900
1,324.80701 1,295.6271

for us close
1316 to 1306 range

london red 10:12 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

barriers at 50 75 and the big 140. if euro above 140 come ecb, draghi will surely talk down. will need to be time right as plenty of stops over 140 but high prob will work.

london red 10:11 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

big 50% at 13958

Saar KaL 10:06 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

NzdUSD this 0.8730...is high for the week imo
till next weeks Low .8520

GBPCHF Shorts

1.48312 1.4798
1.48348 1.4791
1.48383 1.4784
1.48419 1.4777
1.48454 1.4770
1.48489 1.4763

for us close 1.4800 area

Saar KaL 09:57 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

USDJPY Longs
With every 6 pip drops drop below 102

nw kw 09:35 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd

1.40 psychological target/ I do recall 3 30mint spikes past 40 than dropped 300 in time

GVI Forex Blog 09:07 GMT May 6, 2014
Final Eurozone and U.K. Service PMIs Better than Expected. RBA Keeps Policy Steady as Expected
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US/CA- Trade, CA- Ivey PMI

Final Services PMI's from Europe and the U.K. have generally been stronger than expected with the exception of Germany. The EURUSD has moved into range of its 1.40 psychological target . The same is true for GBPUSD 1.70.

Final Eurozone and U.K. Service PMIs Better than Expected. RBA Keeps Policy Steady as Expected

Tallinn viies 09:05 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
trying short euro here at 1,3925. stop at 1,3975 a bit over the high of this year.
target 1,3770

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT May 6, 2014
March 2014 Eurozone Retail Sales
Reply   




ALERT
mm: +0.30% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
yy: +0.90% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Saar KaL 08:54 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD might hit 1.3818 today close

nw kw 08:54 GMT May 6, 2014
buy cable, sell usd

gbp did what cat did the gov. owns the homes M not the bank

HK [email protected] 08:52 GMT May 6, 2014
Most scaring event since King Kong in NYC.
Reply   


Russian planes flew near California, Guam, in upped activity.

Saar KaL 08:51 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

short cable
small
tgt 1.6852

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:42 GMT May 6, 2014
AceTrader May 6; Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

06 May 2014 08:06GMT

EUR/USD - 1.3915
The single currency found renewed buying interest at 1.3875 at European open n jumped in early European morning to 1.3931 on earlier news of Russia deploying submarines near Crimea together with the release of upbeat services PMI fm Eurozone.

Bids are now seen at 1.3910/15 n more below at 1.3890/00 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.3940/45.

Italy n France services PMI came in better-than-expected at 51.1n 50.4 vs forecasts 50.2 n 50.3 respectively.

Russian Defence Minister says 'new submarines, ships to be deployed by Crimea-based black sea fleet this year.'

News from RIA news agency, Russian deputy foreign minister says Russia, U.S. will abide by strategic arms reduction treaty; says Ukraine crisis will not affect it.

Johannesburg HvW 08:41 GMT May 6, 2014
GBP/JPY summary

Thank you so much Mr.Wfakhoury.

Continued success to you.

Amman wfakhoury 08:38 GMT May 6, 2014
GBP/JPY summary

Use these levels to know the direction of next level if closed above or below them :
172.85 -173.10 -173.35 -173.60
172.85 -172.60 -172.25 172.00

GVI Forex john 08:36 GMT May 6, 2014
April 2014 GB Services PMI



U.K. April Services PMI surpasses market expectations.

Amman wfakhoury 08:33 GMT May 6, 2014
GBP/JPY summary

Johannesburg HvW 08:05 GMT 05/06/2014
----------------------------------------
172.85 confirmed and reached...closing 1 hr bar above it
means 173.11 is coming ..colsing below it means return to 172.60

Perth WTR 08:32 GMT May 6, 2014
April 2014 GB Services PMI

another strong data from UK, unbelievable marathon run for cable

GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT May 6, 2014
April 2014 GB Services PMI
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --
58.7 vs. 57.8 exp. vs. 57.6 prev.


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Perth WTR 08:27 GMT May 6, 2014
range broken?
Reply   
are we finally breaking the euro tight range today for good? been unbelievable tight range around 1.38

Saar KaL 08:26 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPAUD
1.83701 1.8126
1.83932 1.8102
1.84163 1.8079
1.84394 1.8056
1.84625 1.8033
1.84856 1.8010
1.85087 1.7987
1.85318 1.7964
1.85549 1.7941
1.85780 1.7918

GVI Forex john 08:25 GMT May 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   
Japanese and Chinese markets were closed for holidays today. Otherwise, the markets generally are in a mixed risk posture at
this hour. Ukraine tensions have slipped into the background as a market factor at the moment. Early in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are mostly higher. Equities are higher. Far East markets ended mixed. U.S. S&P futures are up. The peripheral European bond yields are lower. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.62% +1bp.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).

kl fs 08:23 GMT May 6, 2014
buy cable, sell usd

well, even for chartists, we wait for confirmation of a set up to call position trade, you are merely scalping

Kaunas DP 08:22 GMT May 6, 2014
buy cable, sell usd

kl fs 08:19 GMT 05/06/2014
////
I do not trade data, I do trade chart ... LOL

kl fs 08:19 GMT May 6, 2014
buy cable, sell usd
Reply   
i think if you want to position trade, you got to have at least a series of fundamental data backing it first not just punching numbers on the screen and call it position trade

Saar KaL 08:16 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

NZDCAD
Shorts
0.95490 0.9429
0.95590 0.9419
0.95690 0.9409
0.95790 0.9399
0.95890 0.9389
0.95990 0.9379
0.96089 0.9369
0.96189 0.9359
0.96289 0.9349
0.96389 0.9339

Kaunas DP 08:12 GMT May 6, 2014
buy cable, sell usd

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.6935 Target: 1.64 Stop: 1.7

positional trade

GVI Forex john 08:09 GMT May 6, 2014
April 2014 EZ Final Services PMI

EZ, final Services PMI unrevised slightly lower.




France revised up and Germany down...

bali sja 08:07 GMT May 6, 2014
buy cable, sell usd
Reply   
forget about euro and everything else, action is with cable if you play against usd, cable grabs safe haven status once more like in previous era

Saar KaL 08:05 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD Longs tgt 1.0972
1.0932
1.0926
1.0920
1.0914
1.0908
1.0902
1.0896
1.0890
1.0884
1.0878

Kaunas DP 08:05 GMT May 6, 2014
buy USD
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3915 Target: 1.3833 Stop: 1.3945

done

time frame... till ECB

Johannesburg HvW 08:05 GMT May 6, 2014
GBP/JPY summary
Reply   
Good day Mr.Wfakhoury,

If and when you are around, would you mind giving your view of the G/J as it stands at present, plse?

Thanking you in advance.

GVI Forex john 08:00 GMT May 6, 2014
April 2014 EZ Final Services PMI
Reply   




ALERT
Svc:
EZ: 53.1 vs. 53.1 exp. vs. 53.1 (flash)
France: 50.4 vs. 50.3 exp. vs. 50.3 (flash)
Germany: 54.7 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 55.0 (flash)



Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

jkt abel 07:58 GMT May 6, 2014
eur/usd

top pickers rush to the scene, familiar familiar
we know the end results later as usual

KL KL 07:57 GMT May 6, 2014
eur/usd

Sell EURUSD relentless 1.39222....no problem ....waiting 2nd cherry bite on audusd....above today's high.....anytime now!!...and relentless...and DFM...DYOR...imvho and gl gt....all a game!!

eu pat 07:53 GMT May 6, 2014
eur/usd
Reply   
USD is weak..it will be continue later on..
Ok what next?

Now I sell eur/usd at 1.3930 for correction..risk trade..sl 30 pips.


jkt abel 07:53 GMT May 6, 2014
UK Data

UK data will bring us cable 1.70, it has to happen

GVI Forex 07:50 GMT May 6, 2014
UK Data
Reply   
UK market participants return from the Bank holiday weekend to the services PMI this morning. The services PMI dropped for a fifth consecutive month in March to its lowest since last June. The risks to the April outturn, however, are biased to the upside. Domestic measures of business confidence/activity, including our own Lloyds Bank Business Confidence Barometer and the manufacturing PMI, posted solid improvements in April. Moreover, the ‘flash’ estimate of the euro area services PMI picked up last month. The final reading of this euro area survey, due this morning, should confirm this improvement. Overall, we look for the UK services PMI to rise to 58.1 from 57.2 (consensus 57.8).

Lloyds Bank Dai
Y Economic Outlook

jkt abel 07:49 GMT May 6, 2014
gbpjpy 173.28 confirmed
Reply   
buy gbpjpy

jkt abel 07:31 GMT May 6, 2014
MR STOP 1.39 is coming

sell usd in May and go away ;)

bali sja 07:17 GMT May 6, 2014
MR STOP 1.39 is coming

good one DP, easier selling usd right?

Kaunas DP 06:29 GMT May 6, 2014
MR STOP 1.39 is coming
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3880 Target: 1.3925 Stop: 1.3870

done

Saar KaL 05:40 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Friday Close P.I
GBPUSD 1.6900 1.6765

EURUSD
1.3916 1.3767

USDJPY 102.6 102.00

Day Trade Orders
102.64449 101.7012
102.70504 101.6407
102.76560 101.5801
102.82615 101.5196


AUDUSD 0.9300 .9230

Saar KaL 05:30 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Shorts

NZDJPY
88.90683
88.98006
89.05330
89.12653

tgt 88

Syd 04:55 GMT May 6, 2014
Australia's RBA Cash Rate Target Unchanged At 2.5%
Reply   
RBA Says Most Prudent Course is Period of Stable Rates
RBA Says A$ Remains Historically High
RBA: Moderate Growth in Consumer Demand Heralds Strong Expansion in Homebuilding
RBA Says Inflation Likely Consistent With Target Band Next 2 Years
RBA Says Monetary Policy is Appropriate to Foster Growth
RBA: Resources Investment Set to Fall Significantly
RBA Says Decline in A$ From Year-Ago Will Assist Economic Transition

RBA: Likely to be Some Time Before Unemployment Falls Consistently

RBA Says Support From A$ Fall Now Less Than Previously

RBA: Inflation Should Be Within Target If Domestic Costs Contained

KL KL 04:50 GMT May 6, 2014
short audusd

out 1/2 here .9279...rest stops .93...keep it until Audusd 80 cents...lol...or until the GFC 3.....LOL...happy with this madness....off to get some food....hungry....

Syd 04:49 GMT May 6, 2014
(CN) Chief China Economist at UBS Wang Tao:
Reply   
(CN) Chief China Economist at UBS Wang Tao: Sees 15% chance China property market to have a "rapid correction", which will drive China GDP to 5% - Chinese press- A 10% slow of new building home will drive China GDP growth rate lower by 2.5%. - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 04:44 GMT May 6, 2014 Reply   
(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR TRADE BALANCE (A$): 0.7B (4th consecutive month of surplus; 3-month low) V 1.0BE - (TW) TAIWAN APR CPI Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.5%E; WPI Y/Y: 0.1% V 0.7%E - (PH) PHILIPPINES APR CPI M/M: 0.4%

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Australia trade surplus slows despite strong iron ore shipments; Markets await RBA statement - Source TradeTheNews.com

Saar KaL 04:44 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Gold Longs
1,269.04
1,273.70
1,271.37


USDCAD Longs
1.0936
1.0947
1.0942

NZDCHF SHorts
0.76496

NDX short
3,615

GBPUSD Longs
1.6808
1.6821
1.6834

GBPCAD Longs
1.8382
1.84
1.8418
1.8436

KL KL 04:39 GMT May 6, 2014
short audusd
Reply   
Relentless short AUSSIE Battler .9305...... no need to think...DFM..DYOR..imvho...no rate rise Ever??....LOL SELL!!!

Saar KaL 04:39 GMT May 6, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDUSD SHorts
for .9267

Hong Kong AceTrader 04:27 GMT May 6, 2014
AceTrader May 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

06 May 2014 02:47GMT

EUR/USD - 1.3880.. The European Commission (EC) gave a downbeat assessment of the eurozone in its spring forecast on Mon n traders' reaction after reading the report wud be selling the eur/gbp cross.

Bloomberg reported The European Commission predicted on Mon low inflation will remain a threat to euro-area expansion for at least the next 2 years as it trimmed its economic-growth forecast n warned of the impact of tensions with Russia.

The euro zone's inflation rate will be 0.8% this year n 1.2% in 2015, both lower than forecast in Feb n well below the ECB's target of just below 2%. EZ GDP is projected to rise 1.7% in 2015, compared with the commission's previous forecast of 1.8%.

Commission VP Siim Kallas told reporters in Brussels "Price pressures are expected to remain subdued as we expect energy prices to continue to decline n as demand is only gradually firming n unemployment is still high." He added "When we consider what are the main risks for the European economy at this stage, the one main risk is clearly the external tensions n uncertainty which surrounds us, especially related to the crisis in Ukraine.


02:22GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3877 ... The single currency traded inside a narrow range of 1.3865-1.3890 on Monday due to holidays in Japan and Britain. Trading is expected to be thin also in Asia today until European open as Italy, France, Germany n eurozone will release their services PMI at 07:45GMT, 07:50GMT, 07:55GMT n 08:00GMT respectively.

Market players shud pay attention to the release of eurozone retail sales data at 09:00GMT. The retail sales is expected to decrease by 0.6% m/m in March versus the previous reading of 0.4% m/m increase.

HK [email protected] 04:05 GMT May 6, 2014
National Russian card payment system established
Reply   


The west will just lose business.

LINK

GVI Forex Blog 03:40 GMT May 6, 2014 Reply   
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has intensified but the effect seems

Morning Briefing : 06-May-2014 -0340 GMT

GVI Forex 01:38 GMT May 6, 2014
Australia Trade
Reply   
AUSTRALIA MAR TRADE BALANCE +A$731M; MNI MEDIAN +A$950M

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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