Syd 22:28 GMT May 7, 2014
DJ Aussie Dollar Off Ahead of Jobs Data -
Reply
AUD/USD is a tad lower as investors focus on the Australian employment report with expectations that the unemployment rate will rise, says BNZ strategist Kymberly Martin. "As always, the employment reports are a lot more complex than the unemployment rate, although initially this number grabs attention." Martin adds BNZ's parent bank NAB expects a rise in the unemployment rate to 6%, higher than market consensus for 5.9%. She adds overall this type of outcome "should not be too negative for the AUD." The pair is at 0.9327, from 0.9340 late last session. Martin puts short-term support for the pair at 0.9320 and resistance at 0.9380.
Tallinn viies 21:21 GMT May 7, 2014
eurusd
Reply
covered short euro at 1.3912.
sq now. plan to buy near 1.3870-75 for final push to break 1.3965-70
GVI Forex john 21:05 GMT May 7, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
May 7, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 8.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- Trade, AU- Employment, DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI,
BOE Decision, ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, 30-yr Auction.
- Far East: CN- Trade, AU- Employment.
- Europe: DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, BOE Decision, ECB Decision.
- North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas, 30-yr Auction.
Saar KaL 20:28 GMT May 7, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
Short On CADJPY on Menu
CAD/JPY above 93.46
till 94.40
tgt
93.02
to 92.5
Gold Maybe next day
Longs for this range
1,308.56 1,281.80
till 1265
GVI Forex Blog 20:17 GMT May 7, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply
Risk appetite improved slightly on Russian diplomacy and Fed comments. President Putin said Russia pulled back its troops from the Ukrainian border, although NATO later disputed that. Fed Chair Yellen's testimony to Congress revealed nothing new but did reiterate that interest rates would remain on hold for some time after tapering ended.
Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts
GVI Forex john 20:08 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Thursday is a big news day
China: trade data, especially exports are seen as a proxy for economic growth
Australia: Employment data are probably their most important economic metric
Switzerland: The SNB targets inflation and the Swiss economy is mired in disinflation.
Bank of England: No policy changes are expected. Sometime soon the BOE wil start releasing a policy statement with its decisions?
European Central Bank: the ECB has no stomach for QE or an interest rate cut. Expect more dovish statements and little else.
United States: Initial Jobless. - Volatile series. Data should only be viewed in the context of other recent data.
Yellen Testimony to Senate - She is unlikely to say anything new.
30yr auction - strength of long dated auctions always closely scrutinized.
Livingston nh 19:42 GMT May 7, 2014
EUR
Reply
the 55 ema on the hourly EUR/USD has been supportive (1.391) but maybe the Draghi risk kicks in on a break
eu pat 19:08 GMT May 7, 2014
jpy
Reply
ok before going to bed..
JPY is unbelieve last weeks...look at these pinbars from both sides)0
I guess that fall down on one day will be huge..
Livingston nh 19:03 GMT May 7, 2014
Yellen Springs No Surprises Dovish Policy to Persist. Bond Yields Remain Low
Slow Day - the DNA of most CBs was geared to resist inflation - the current crop sees deflation as an enemy instead of an ally // so we have Yellen who today expressed the Unemployment Rate as "if I had to pick one" favorite -- so she thinx inflation is "too low" -- inflation is a process not an event and the great fear is always "expectations" - Yellen (like her predecessor) has never had to deal w/ inflation de facto merely in theory // a couple of points - expectations are driven by "cost of living" which doesn't get measured by the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (so it has a tendency to sneak up on the pointy headed theorists) - ISM services (non-manuf) Prices component has been rising for over 4 1/2 yrs - two items critical to "cost of living" (food and energy) are routinely excluded by pointy heads - BUT two that aren't yet excluded are medical and housing both of which should show more pronounced moves in CPI because owners equiv rent will shadow the big rise in rental costs and health care (18% of GDP but only 6.5% of CPI) will begin to have a larger impact on "cost of living" expectations
The current crop of CB types are "wishing" for inflation to protect their financial clients - be careful what you wish for
US inflation is running at 1.5% to 1.9% -- a 2 yr Treasury is yielding less than 1/3 and you get to pay tax on the interest
Go figure what happens when the market wakes to that
GVI Forex john 18:51 GMT May 7, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen Text
May 8 Testimony--Chair Janet L. Yellen
The Economic Outlook
Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate
9:30 a.m.
GVI Forex Blog 18:28 GMT May 7, 2014
Yellen Springs No Surprises Dovish Policy to Persist. Bond Yields Remain Low
Reply
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CN- Trade, AU- Employment, DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, BOE , ECB, US- Weekly Jobs, 30-yr
Fed Chair Yellen took an accomodative posture as expected Wednesday reiterating that a high degree of Monetary policy accommodation is still warranted. She noted that after the harsh winter that indicators point to a rebound in spending and production. She said that labor market conditions continue to improve, but they are still far from satisfactory and that involuntary part-time work and weak wage growth signal "substantial slack". On balance, her comments were dovish as expected.
Yellen Springs No Surprises Dovish Policy to Persist. Bond Yields Remain Low
Belgrade TD 17:54 GMT May 7, 2014
Daily TA trade
also short Duke Energy (DUK) ~73,5 ... and on FX side, short AUD/USD ~0,934 for ~0,92 or so ... with stop near 0,938/9 ... am out for today ... ;)
nw kw 17:24 GMT May 7, 2014
Daily TA trade
new shift LA usd can export cad heavy oil it has no restrictions new trend starting
nw kw 17:02 GMT May 7, 2014
Daily TA trade
your target is good but hear in cad TSX reports big investments for big bull
Belgrade TD 16:57 GMT May 7, 2014
Daily TA trade
nw kw 16:51 GMT 05/07/2014
and for NatGas am looking for 3,95-4,00 ... IF ...
nw kw 16:51 GMT May 7, 2014
Daily TA trade
NAtgas, ??????? thay got paid and are behind
Belgrade TD 16:46 GMT May 7, 2014
Daily TA trade
nw kw 16:29 GMT 05/07/2014
am expecting a decline of 5-7% in energy sect from Brent to NAtgas, etc ... in a few months or maybe earlier ... same for SPX ... but that's just my perception of future market ... GLGT
nw kw 16:29 GMT May 7, 2014
Daily TA trade
energy sector are defensive but tek bad
Belgrade TD 16:14 GMT May 7, 2014
Daily TA trade
In May:
am selling SP500 and energy stock/futures ... Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday are down days and Monday and Tuesday - up days (short therm cycle) ... anyway, more shares are selling on down days than it buys back on up days so net result has been very clear - Sell sp500 ... and major consequence = decline in energy sector ... will see :)
Cambridge Joe 15:45 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
LV ** IF** the forecast is correct, (and that is an IF) there very short term while usdx softens, eurusd might well firm, go up. However, my set-up suggests that from around 19:30 GMT we are likely to see usdx firming, which dependant of flow rates, would mean eurusd down..... If this is correct, the effect could well run across a couple of days.... DYOD & Good luck !
GVI Forex john 15:40 GMT May 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
European equities are ending mixed to higher, while U,S. shares are trading narrowly mixed. Most major equity markets in the Far East closed sharply lower after holidays. Yields in the prime fixed income markets are mixed to lower. Comments by Fed Chair Yellen have had little impact on the markets. The yields for peripheral bond markets are higher. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.58%, -2bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green)
and risk-off (red).
CT LV 15:39 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Cambridge Joe 15:35 GMT 05/07/2014
Looks to me : USDX softer for next few hours. Looking for significant firming of USDX Thursday thru Friday, maybe more.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Joe
I am not sure what this means.
Does it mean for example EUR/USD up?
Cambridge Joe 15:35 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Looks to me : USDX softer for next few hours. Looking for significant firming of USDX Thursday thru Friday, maybe more.
Looking more positive from around 19:30 GMT
IMO. GL
GVI Forex john 15:17 GMT May 7, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen Text
Current July 2015 Fed Funds futures implied monthly average is 0.45% -1.5bp today. Before the Yellen 6-mo comment (and April jobs) it was 0.380%. that works out to an 80% chance of one 25bp rate hike by that month.
Johannesburg HvW 15:08 GMT May 7, 2014
View of G/J plse
Most excellent Mr.Wfakhoury.
Thank you again for your assistance today.
Best regards,
GVI Forex Blog 14:56 GMT May 7, 2014
Reply
May 7, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 8. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- Trade, AU- Employment, DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, BOE Decision, ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, 30-yr Auction.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 8, 2014
GVI Forex john 14:54 GMT May 7, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
May 7, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 8.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- Trade, AU- Employment, DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI,
BOE Decision, ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, 30-yr Auction.
- Far East: CN- Trade, AU- Employment.
- Europe: DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, BOE Decision, ECB Decision.
- North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas, 30-yr Auction.
NY JM 14:51 GMT May 7, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen
Soon focus will shift to the ECB and do you want to be long when Draghi reiterates his fx comments?
At a minimum this suggests a limit on the EURUSD upside (i.e. below 1.3950) ahead of the meeting, test comes afterwards.
GVI Forex john 14:47 GMT May 7, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen Text
Yellen refusing to be pinned down about when rates will be "normalized". The "six month" forecast is out the window. This does not mean the Fed might not tighten six months after asset purchases end. It only means It will not be be providing any kind of time line at the present time.
london red 14:46 GMT May 7, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen
yellen seems intent on saying nothing new
Livingston nh 14:46 GMT May 7, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen
Markets always test new Fed Chair - Yellen is the second consecutive theorist - she believes in Phillips curve (and its evil spawn NAIRU) -- so her test will probably be inflation related (challenging her employment slack thesis) // Congressional questions may mark a beginning of test
eu pat 14:28 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
my trade is short eur/jpy ( before Y)...I count usd stronger eur/usd down and stocks down (usd/jpy flat or down next)...my target is 140.940...or BE (this time I will not close earlier)))
Amman wfakhoury 14:27 GMT May 7, 2014
EURUSD 13919
Amman wfakhoury 12:15 GMT 05/07/2014
prague mark 11:59 GMT 05/07/2014
_____________________
consolidates at 13919..any rise above 13919 will return to it.
we have confirmed level 13902 and 13832 still active
_________________________________
13919 reached again as 13902 did not reach
Amman wfakhoury 14:25 GMT May 7, 2014
View of G/J plse
Amman wfakhoury 11:44 GMT 05/07/2014
if 1 hr bar closed below 172.60 we are heading again to 172.35
___________________________________
172.85 and 172.35 reached according yesterday and today signal
GVI Forex 14:21 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Stocks turning down, bond yields lower, JPY (reversing higher) following, nothing to do with what Yellen said.
GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT May 7, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen Text
The surprise would have been if she weren't dovish. Focus for the markets seems to be on the timing of the first Fed tightening. The real issue will be the pace of Fed tightening when it starts. At this juncture that looks to be very slow.
london red 14:11 GMT May 7, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen Text
dont think anyone surprised by dovishness. yen pair dragged back down by s&p. res at 102.15/20 for further gains. euro major fib at 13958, possibly can break but maybe not hold ahead of ecb
Paris ib 14:06 GMT May 7, 2014
U.S. Cost of Funding Keeps Rising
Reply
All this good news and all the sensible talk from Putin is only pushing the U.S. cost of funding up. Yields are rising across the curve. But the USD is not seeing any material benefit. The USD and the U.S. economy can't catch a break.
I guess that's what happens when you shoot yourself in the foot. Threaten sanctions, allow the fear of having funds frozen for whatever reason and you undermine your own international reserve status.
Jim Rogers
GVI Forex john 14:05 GMT May 7, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen Text
Reply
- High Degree of Monetary Policy Accommodation Still Warranted
- Recent Flattening in Housing Activity May Prove More Protracted
- Fed Cognizant of Low Inflation Risks, Monitoring Closely
- Involuntary Part-Time Work, Weak Wage Growth Signal "Substantial Slack"
- Labor Market Conditions Continue to Improve, Still Far From Satisfactory
- Readings on Housing Activity Have Remained Disappointing, Bear Watching
- After Harsh Winter, Indicators Point to Rebound in Spending, Production
london red 13:52 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
actually most are looking for more dovishness from what i am reading, so surprise may be to other side
eu pat 13:47 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
market is set before Y for stronger USD..I do not know but carefully...can be move to both side...first usd down then up...
london red 13:47 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
usd up vs yen on higher wage costs plus putin backtrack. jpy has been beneficiary from savehaven flows so when putin seen to play ball, bound to give up some gains, but also today saw us productivity drop and wages much higher than expected. usdjpy is sensitive to changes/potential changes in us yields
GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
fwiw S&P and USDJPY are not correlating well today S&P heavy but USDJPY has not been going along for the lower ride.
prague mark 13:26 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
per my view there are plenty offers ahead of yeaterdays 1.3951, starting 1.3940... and 1.3947 should hold... otherwise it might be viewed as tight stop/price I am willing to pay for testing the waters :)
GVI Forex 13:26 GMT May 7, 2014
Global Markets News
Putin calling on separatists to postpone referendums in the South and Eastern Ukraine.
GVI Forex 13:23 GMT May 7, 2014
Global Markets News
5/7/2014 9:20:21 AM
(RU) Russia Pres Putin: Ukraine crisis developing along unfavorable scenario; Callls for Ukraine to stop military operation
- All parties are interested in coming to a resolution on the crisis
- Russian and OSCE approaches to the Ukraine coincide
- Source TradeTheNews.com
HK RF@ 13:18 GMT May 7, 2014
FWIW
Reply
HONG KONG � Tensions in the South China Sea intensified Wednesday as Vietnamese naval vessels confronted Chinese ships that were working to place an oil rig off Vietnam�s coast, and Vietnamese officials claimed that their ships had been rammed by the Chinese vessels.
Vietnam said the Chinese ships also fired water cannons at its naval flotilla in the encounter, injuring Vietnamese sailors, although Chinese officials did not confirm the incident. The skirmishing highlighted the hair-trigger tensions in the region as Asian nations try to contain China�s more aggressive posture in pursuing maritime claims in the South China Sea.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:16 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Mark, may I ask how you arrived at that stop? Is it based on pips as the key level is yesterday's 1.3951 high.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:04 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
During this lull waiting for Yellen, feel free to pose some trading scenarios for her testimony.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:45 GMT May 7, 2014
Global Markets News
This news seems to have given risk on a lift (note JPY) but actions speak louder than words
GVI Forex 12:11 GMT 05/07/2014
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:30 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Weaker JPY giving EURUSD a bid but still below 1.3950 and USDJPY 102 and EURJPY 142.
Price action confirms USDJPY 101.30 as key support (not tested).
Thin pre-Yellen market...
Saar KaL 12:23 GMT May 7, 2014
Day's Trades
you should really look into (For a month)
EUR/USD Sell
XAU/USD Sell
GBP/USD Sell
USD/JPY Buy
NZD/USD Sell
USD/CAD Buy
Amman wfakhoury 12:15 GMT May 7, 2014
EURUSD 13919
Reply
prague mark 11:59 GMT 05/07/2014
_____________________
consolidates at 13919..any rise above 13919 will return to it.
we have confirmed level 1902 and 13832 still active
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:13 GMT May 7, 2014
Global Markets News
nw kw 10:29 GMT 05/07/2014 - can you explain what you are asking
GVI Forex 12:11 GMT May 7, 2014
Global Markets News
5/7/2014 8:03:42 AM - Source TradeTheNews.com
(UR) Russia President Putin: Ready to discuss ways to resolve the Ukraine crisis**Note that yesterday, the chairman of the OSCE has called for a ceasefire in Ukraine in the runup to a planned presidential election on May 25.
- On May 1st, Russia Foreign Min Lavrov called for "dialogue" between Ukraine and its opponents under aegis of OSCE
- Source TradeTheNews.com
prague mark 11:59 GMT May 7, 2014
View of G/J plse
Amman wfakhoury
what eur/usd level we are aiming today on the downside ? 1.3832 ? TIA
Johannesburg HvW 11:47 GMT May 7, 2014
View of G/J plse
Thanking you most sincerely Mr.Wfakhoury.
Continued success to you.
Amman wfakhoury 11:44 GMT May 7, 2014
View of G/J plse
if 1 hr bar closed below 172.60 we are heading again to 172.35
Amman wfakhoury 11:41 GMT May 7, 2014
View of G/J plse
yesterday signal and levels still active.
Belgrade TD 11:39 GMT May 7, 2014
Daily TA trade
Buy USDCHF
Entry: ~0.875 Target: 0.883+ Stop: ~0.87
Long here ... during May ...
Johannesburg HvW 11:35 GMT May 7, 2014
View of G/J plse
Reply
Mr.Wfakhoury if you are available, would you mind sharing your view on G/J plse?
My TP @ 172,656 for now.
Thanks for replying and when you have a minute to spare.
GVI Forex john 11:12 GMT May 7, 2014
U.S. Weekly Mortgage Applications
Reply
Big rebound in weekly mortgage applications. Note purchase index up +8.9%. Housing data in the States has been lagging.
eu pat 11:00 GMT May 7, 2014
eur/jpy
Thanks kw...I will look at this.
nw kw 10:44 GMT May 7, 2014
eur/jpy
eu pat 10:28 GMT 05/07/2014
hid this pat
http://www.usagold.com/gold-price-forex.html
nw kw 10:40 GMT May 7, 2014
eur/jpy
xaujpy drifting up might be a short if gets legs but the fed???????
GVI Forex john 10:40 GMT May 7, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Reply
I wonder if the risk-off posture of the market will fade fairly soon today? NY equity markets generally do not like to follow the lead of markets overseas.
As for Yellem today. Keep in mind she is not an objective economist, part of her job is to foster confidence in the economy. Thus I expect her to say the economy has been improving but to indicate that the Fed will be doing al it can to promote growth. Also, consider that a weaker USD is supportive of growth so she is unlikely to have anything to say in support of a stronger USD.
nw kw 10:29 GMT May 7, 2014
Global Markets News
GVI Forex Jay Meisler you need a place that we can save info for one can save it in this place
eu pat 10:28 GMT May 7, 2014
eur/jpy
out from long + 9 pips))) only scalp...
sry...but it not looks for action from this short term setup...Its against current trend... I see Ukraine...
eu pat 09:23 GMT May 7, 2014
eur/jpy
Reply
bought at 141.30 sl 25 pips
loks too early buy eur, gbp, aud, nzd etc against usd..I will wait little be longer to finish corrections and find levels for enter new positions...
GVI Forex john 09:08 GMT May 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
Look at all the red. Markets are clearly in a "risk-off" posture at this hour. Early in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are mostly lower, but only slightly so. Equities are mostly lower following the weakness late Tuesday in the U.S. Far East markets ended weaker. U.S. S&P futures are up slightly. The peripheral European bond yields are lower. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.58% +2bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green)
and risk-off (red).
Saar KaL 08:56 GMT May 7, 2014
Day's Trades
NDX A Buy here till 3620
out of cable shorts will short 1.7030 and above
out EURUSD Shorts
Longing only NDX NZDCAD and USDJPY
USDJPY tgt 102.2
NZDCAD 96
Syd 08:37 GMT May 7, 2014
New Zealand Dollar Falls After Central Bank Talk of Intervention
Reply
WELLINGTON, New Zealand--The New Zealand dollar fell Wednesday after the country's central bank said it may intervene to weaken it, but the bank's plan to continue raising interest rates will make engineering a decline in the currency a challenge over the long term.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler said the central bank may need to take action to weaken the currency, among the world's best-performing major currencies this year, to prevent its strength from choking off exports ranging from fruit to wine.
"If the currency remains high in the face of worsening fundamentals, such as a continued weakening in export prices, it would become more opportune for the Reserve Bank to intervene in the currency market to sell New Zealand dollars," he told a conference of dairy farmers.
The New Zealand dollar, known as the kiwi, dropped nearly half a cent against the U.S. dollar following his comments, to US$0.8702.
Keith Poore, head of investment strategy for AMP Capital New Zealand, which has more than 18.0 billion New Zealand dollars (US$15.6 billion) under management in the country, said Mr. Wheeler's comments added to rising risks facing the kiwi in the near term. Those risks include falling prices of milk, New Zealand's biggest export.
"At the current level there is definitely reason for the kiwi to move lower," said Mr. Poore, who has been a seller of the currency for the past month.
Still, the kiwi remains up nearly 4% this year against a basket of currencies that includes the U.S. dollar and British pound, partly due to record-high terms of trade as the New Zealand's agriculture-rich economy feeds Asia's growing appetite for dairy products. New Zealand's central bank has called it unsustainably high at current levels.
The New Zealand dollar has risen 1.0% over the same period against its counterpart in Australia, which was New Zealand's main trading partner until it was recently overtaken by China.
Further fueling the recent rally was the central bank's interest-rate increases in March and April, which were intended to tame inflation and cool a real-estate market at risk of overheating. The benchmark interest rate now stands at 3.0%, much higher than in other developed economies.
The interest-rate differential with neighboring Australia is particularly seen as bullish for the kiwi. On Tuesday, Australia's central bank held its policy rate at a record-low 2.5% for the eighth meeting in a row and signaled it would keep it at that level for some time to stoke an economy struggling with a fading mining boom.
New Zealand's central bank, meanwhile, has said it plans to raise interest rates by around two percentage points in the current tightening cycle, which it expects to last at least two years. Given that plan, any attempts at intervening to weaken the kiwi will have limited success, said ASB Economist Nick Tuffley.
Fergus McDonald, head of bonds and currencies for Tyndall Investment Management New Zealand LTD, which has around NZ$3.5 billion under management in New Zealand, also expects the kiwi to remain firm.
"If the RBNZ sticks to its guns and puts up interest rates and the rest of the world doesn't, it will continue to support the kiwi," he said.
New Zealand policy makers have acted to weaken the currency previously. In late 2012 and early 2013 the central bank sold the currency for the first time in nearly four years. The amount, however, was limited and prompted criticism that the central bank had misled markets over the extent of the intervention in an effort to "talk" the currency lower.
The central bank's latest talk of intervention also may reflect frustration at the currency's continued strength in the face of falling prices of dairy products, which account for around a third of exports. Milk prices fell a further 1.1% in the GlobalDairyTrade Auction overnight on Tuesday, bringing the total decline since mid-February to 23%.
In any case, David Croy, ANZ Bank's head of global markets research for New Zealand, said the central bank was unlikely to intervene quickly because there is no guarantee such a move would weaken the kiwi significantly.
Instead, Mr. Croy interpreted Mr. Wheeler's comments as a warning. They are a "reminder that the economy will start to come under pressure if commodity prices weaken further and the New Zealand dollar doesn't respond," he said.
New York USA 08:37 GMT May 7, 2014
EUR/USD Trend For Today
Reply
EUR/USD surged on Tuesday, violating the hurdle of 1.3900 and reaching 1.3950. In my view, the violation of the 1.3900 barrier changes the short-term outlook from neutral to positive and I would expect buyers to challenge the 13th of March highs at 1.3965 (R1). A decisive break above that resistance may see the 1.4000 (R2) critical bar. Nonetheless, considering that the RSI exited its overbought zone I would expect some further consolidation or a pullback before the development of further advance.
� Support: 1.3900-1.3815-1.3790
� Resistance: 1.3965-1.4000-1.4100
dc CB 08:34 GMT May 7, 2014
Hillary going to be in a bit of strife running for office ahahaha
Just in time to diverge the attention away from
Bill and his Banker buddies who Bent over the entire Middle Class to "enjoy" a right good reaming and not in the mouth
Ya it's all on the Monica BJ....Hillary cause of her "pain" should be the Next Prestitute.
Saar KaL 08:11 GMT May 7, 2014
Day's Trades
Recommended Longs today USDJPY and NZDCAD
Hong Kong AceTrader 07:44 GMT May 7, 2014
AceTrader May 7: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
Reply
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11560
07 May 2014 07:01GMT
Dlr's intra-day strg rebound signals 1st leg of
decline fm Apr's 11665 top has ended y'day at 11500
n 'choppy' sideways trading is in store.
Abv 11585 wud bring further gain to 11615/25 n
only below 11500 extend decline twd 114600 next wk.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 11585/11625/11665
SUP : 11500/11460/11410
Syd 07:10 GMT May 7, 2014
JPY Gains As Nikkei Tumbles, Intervention Talk Hits NZD - -- Market Talk
Reply
The USD stabilized against the majors overnight after Tuesday's trouncing, although there were a couple of standout currency moves. Kiwi took a hit after RBNZ Governor threatened intervention if it remained strong, while JPY pushed higher as the Nikkei sank nearly 3% and the US 10-year yield eased further. Up ahead Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks before Congress (1400 GMT) with a Q&A session afterwards. Europe is devoid of data, already out German March factory orders fell 2.8% on the month against an expected 0.2% rise, EUR/USD slipped to a fresh day low of 1.3915 shortly afterwards. French March industrial production came in at -0.7% against +0.3% expected
HK RF@ 06:40 GMT May 7, 2014
AN EYE FOR AN EYE!!!
Reply
Russia demands $3.8bn security deposit from Visa and Mastercard
Kremlin imposes unprecedented requirements on global payment systems operating in Russia in response to US sanctions
The law, signed by Vladimir Putin, was spurred by Visa and Mastercard�s decision on 21 March to stop servicing payments for clients of Rossiya Bank. Photograph: Ria Novosti/Reuters
International credit card companies face a "severe impact" on their operations in Russia following a strict new law Moscow has adopted in response to Visa and Mastercard freezing service to banks under US sanctions.
Visa described the regulations as "unprecedented" and Mastercard said it could experience difficulties, the Russian magazine Snob reported, after Vladimir Putin signed a law on Monday to create a rival national payment system.
The law stipulates the creation of a homegrown system to facilitate cashless transactions by 1 July, but also imposes stiff new requirements on international payment systems operating in Russia
MORE
Saar KaL 06:34 GMT May 7, 2014
Day's Trades
this EURUSD 1.3810 Might be bullish
till US 1.3950 area
Saar KaL 06:32 GMT May 7, 2014
Day's Trades
Out of GBPNZD Longs
Out of EURUSD Shorts
will shorts Later
Saar KaL 05:38 GMT May 7, 2014
Day's Trades
still shorting Eurusd
1.3929
will hold
into US Session
1.3858 tgt seem ok
Syd 03:52 GMT May 7, 2014
Hillary going to be in a bit of strife running for office ahahaha
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Monica Lewinsky Writes About Her Affair with President Clinton
My fellow Americans, I'm afraid I have not been completely honest with you. I did gigoogity that girl. I gashmogidied her gaphlamities with my googus. And I am sorry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiIP_KDQmXs
Link
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:03 GMT May 7, 2014
Acetraderfx May 7: Daily Recommendations on Major USD/JPY
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DAILY OUTLOOK ON USD/JPY - 101.75
Update Time: 07 May 2014 00:02 GMT
Yesterday's sell off below Monday's low at 101.86 to 101. 50 suggests erratic decline from Apr's high at 104.13 has possibly resumed n a re-test of Apr's low at 101.32 is envisaged.
Below would extend weakness to 101.00 but key daily sup at 100.76 (Feb) would hold.
Sell on pull back with stop as indicated and only above yesterday's 102.19 high would risk gain to 102.56.
Syd 02:46 GMT May 7, 2014
Australian household debt hits 25-year high
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The debate around the proposed deficit levy has so far focussed on economic impact of the Government's debt burden. But economists are warning there is a bigger threat to the country's future: the unrelenting growth in household debt. Figures realsed today show Australians owe $1.8 trillion to banks and other lenders. Adjusted for inflation, that is the highest level in 25 years and the equivalent of almost $79,000 per person.
Link
Syd 02:36 GMT May 7, 2014
Australian March Retail Sales Miss Consensus
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SYDNEY--Australian retail sales were weaker than expected in March, dealing a blow to the central bank's hopes that nonmining sectors would respond to record-low interest rates and lead an economic revival.
Retail sales rose 0.1% in March from a month earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, compared with a 0.4% rise expected by economists. Sales for February were upwardly revised to 0.3% from 0.2% when the figures were first released.
Retail sales for the March quarter rose 1.2% versus an expected 1.5% rise.
Australia's central bank has held interest rates at 2.5%--lower even than in the depths of the global financial crisis--since last August, seeking to stoke domestic sectors of the economy such as retail sales as a mining boom that has powered growth for over a decade slows.
But so far the recovery has been patchy, led by a surge in house prices, while businesses and consumers remain reluctant to spend.
GVI Forex 01:52 GMT May 7, 2014
Australia
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NEWS: AUSTRALIA MAR RETAIL SALES +0.1% M/M; MNI MEDIAN +0.3% AUSTRALIA Q1 RETAIL SALES VOLUME +1.2% Q/Q; MNI MEDIAN +1.6%
GVI Forex 01:51 GMT May 7, 2014
China PMI
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NEWS: CHINA APRIL HSBC SERVICE PMI 51.4 VS 51.9 MARCH
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:38 GMT May 7, 2014
Acetraderfx May 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views [/B]
[B]06 May 2014[/B] [I]23:54GMT[/I]
[B]USD/JPY[/B] - 101.71
Bank of Japan April 7-8 minutes stated that "most members agreed BOJ should continue with QE as long as necessary to meet 2% price target; one member said BOJ's easing should be restricted to about 2 years; one member said speculation about protracted QE could lead to economic instability in the medium to long term; one member said corprate profits, employment and income are improving significantly.
Members agreed that consumer spending is resilient, even though there are some fluctuations due to sale tax hike; one member said front-loaded demand before sales tax hike in April was greater than last sales tax hike in 1997; one member said consumer confidence could pick up if exports increase and companies bring forward CAPEX plans; many members said price gains are seen across a wide range of items and not just energy-related goods; one member expressed concern that foreign exchange moves are having more influence on consumer prices; one member said inflation could quicken from April as firms use sales tax hike as opportunity to pass on rising costs."
Syd 01:18 GMT May 7, 2014
ANZ Recommends Buying Kiwi Put Option -
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The outlook for the New Zealand domestic economy remains extremely solid and shows no signs of slowing, ANZ says. But growth expectations look mature and it is hard to envisage further domestic improvements, the bank says. ANZ also notes markets have remained remarkably complacent about global risks--such as the Chinese economic rebalancing, policy event risks such as the ECB embarking on quantitative easing and European political elections, and global flash points such as events in the Ukraine. ANZ thinks it is prudent to buy protection when others see no need for it. The bank recommends buying a 0.87 strike NZD/USD 3-month at-the-money put option. dj
many more chart points
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