nw kw 21:05 GMT May 9, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
I keep in mind that earnings for stocks distorts cot for offshore cash has to be exchanged to usd
GVI Forex john 20:26 GMT May 9, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
Looks like there were new vulnerable longs in EURUSD put on before the Draghi comments on Thursday. They would have added to the number of positions that had to be liquidated based on the Draghi comments. We will never know what these positions were because the CFTC does not generate these key data. Note on the charts that the spot vs. 20day moving average is a decent predictor of net EUR longs.
If the spot vs, 20 is a reliable predictor as we assert then we know that the markets turned to sellers of EURUSD starting at below 1.3840 yesterday. Today momentum stops would have come in at 1.3835 and below. This is not a market to fade. You have to allow the stop-loss selling to run its course, especially before a weekend.
dc CB 20:08 GMT May 9, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
interesting on this chart. The Commercials are basically flat. The tug is between the Sm Specs(Long) and the Lg Specs(Short).
Emni SnP
Cambridge Joe 19:17 GMT May 9, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Looks like usdx selling smartly into the new week. Also e/$ and cable set to respond as you would imagine.
IMO. GL
Have a good weekend !
london red 19:04 GMT May 9, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
euro appraoching 100 day ma at 13738 and 50% fib at 35. 61.8 at 13674 may feature next week. if we go straight down it should be a good buy for a return to 13740/80 and we will need to trade in the previous weeks range to some degree.
dc CB 17:18 GMT May 9, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Thanks to yesterday's dismal 30Y auction...perhaps the Flatner has gone as far as it could, for now. So Buying 5s Selling 30s...the unwinding.
POMO done today: $1.8bln
coming Mon: $2.25 - $3.00 billion
RevRepo done today: 186.455 bln +++++First time below 190bln this month.
Dow trying for a New High close today to spite Putin and give Love to the O.
OPEX next week...payback time for all those who thought "sell in May"
GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT May 9, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
USDJPY clearly following S&P higher. Market caught short in shares? At some point this pre-weekend trade has to stop working??
Amman wfakhoury 16:03 GMT May 9, 2014
MY signals
Reply
will be stopped at this forum till the end of May ...I am very busy this month.
SaaR KaL 16:03 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
Small Long GBPJPY 171.4
adding more at 171
and most at 170.80
GVI Forex john 15:51 GMT May 9, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
This appears to be a quiet session ahead of another politically uncertain weekend due to Ukraine. Draghi's comments yesterday are another source of uncertainty. Interest rates in prime fixed income markets have fallen. Equity markets are ending the week mixed. The yields for peripheral bond markets have fallen as well. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.62%, +1bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green)
and risk-off (red).
Belgrade TD 15:42 GMT May 9, 2014
eur/usd
well, wrong topic but - its Friday ... am out :)
Belgrade TD 15:40 GMT May 9, 2014
eur/usd
Belgrade TD 16:57:14 GMT - 05/07/2014
... NatGas entry at ~4,74
###
1/5 out ~4,62 to reduce risk ...
###
I'm too exposed and Wk is here so NG futures NatGas, 3/5 out ~4,52 ... but hold full position (5 contract) in miNY NatGas ... also still in full short 5 Oil (standard and mini) and 3 SP500 fut ...
###
Long USD/CHF in +, 1/4 still in play ... Short AUD/USD, right now near BE ... etc.
###
overall nice profit in a few days ... and nice wk to all ... GLGT
GVI Forex Blog 15:33 GMT May 9, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply
Analysts are responding to Draghi's assertion at yesterday's post-decision press conference that the ECB would be comfortable taking action in June, if it were needed. With the power of his words alone, Super Mario forced EUR/USD to 1.3850 yesterday morning and as of writing the pair is at post-meeting lows around 1.3750. Analysts are now forecasting
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Global Equity Weakness Continues
Amman wfakhoury 15:06 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD 13730 confirmed
Reply
13770 confirmed and will be reached unless 1 hr bar closed above 13770.
any rise above 13770 will return to it if 13730 did not reach before.
possibly to touch again 13770
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
NY JM 15:05 GMT May 9, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
it feels like a lot of traders backed off today and all that is left are the stale dollar shorts that are getting squeezed.
EURUSD close below 1.3772 would be an outside week key reversal that followed yesterday's outside day key reversal day.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:57 GMT May 9, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Now close vs 1.3772 will be important
1.3750 is next ("50") level ahead of the 100 day mva (1.3737).
There was a false break below the 100 day mva in early April but before that the last time below it was Feb 12.
2013 close was 1.3773 so a big zero sum game so far this year but can assume the high for the year is in at 1.3993 although we made the same assumption about 1.3967.
Key now is for 1,3750 to hold for the focus to stay on 1.38.
Key level on the downside is 1.3670.
Amman wfakhoury 14:51 GMT May 9, 2014
GBPJPY 171.26
Reply
171.26 confirmed and reached , and now heading again to 171.70 unless 1 hr bar closed below 171.26.
any decline below 171.26 will return to it.
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Amman wfakhoury 14:42 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD 13770 Confirmed
13770 reached
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
SaaR KaL 14:31 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
was too early longing EURJPY
but today
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 142.4246 139.8285
Till Close P.I 142.4246 139.5762
AVG Close 141.0090 140.7546
==
Next week
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 143.2036 140.5934
Till Close P.I 143.2036 139.5762
AVG Close 141.7804 140.7546
SaaR KaL 14:23 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
closed all usdcad
buying again next week
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 1.1063 1.0874
Till Close P.I 1.1068 1.0752
AVG Close 1.0965 1.0836
SaaR KaL 14:17 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
GBPJPY close today
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 173.6388 170.9989
Till Close P.I 173.6388 170.8267
AVG Close 172.2005 172.0270
====
next week
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 174.0736 171.4271
Till Close P.I 174.0736 170.8267
AVG Close 172.6316 172.0270
Might keep Longs into the weekend
GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT May 9, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Wholesale Inventories
Inventories are higher than expected positive contribution to the upcoming 1Q14 GDP data revision. Inventories are often a major distortion to GDP data. As inventories rise, GDP increases, however rising inventories presumably will have to be worked off in the future, so they CAN be a future negative.
SaaR KaL 14:00 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
Cable and eurusd Longs
till close
AUDUSD I think 0.9522 is the highest possible into next week
to close next week
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 0.9413 0.9141
Till Close P.I 0.9522 0.9131
HK RF@ 13:42 GMT May 9, 2014
Probably this article has upset the US and RT deleted it.
This discussions about Yellowstone is not new, and has already appeared on many blogs.
But once it becomes a news on a mainstream media like RT, whether true or not, it may have a big impact on people and markets.
Many Americans feel that their Gov. is hiding the truth from them.
The first to be informed if anything to happen, are of course our beloved bankers and their friends in WallSt:)
SaaR KaL 13:24 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
Pat...thanks man
Closing soon
HK RF@ 13:22 GMT May 9, 2014
Probably this article has upset the US and RT deleted it.
Reply
US prepares mass evacuation plan for Yellowstone supervolcano eruption, report claims.
......................................................................................
Once an article like this is deleted, it will raise more fears, that something is behind it. The impact can reach panic size!!!
Or maybe RT, did it on purpose to create more uncertainty about this matter.
LINK
eu pad 13:21 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
Hi Kal...good job about cad yesterday...thanks))
SaaR KaL 13:19 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
Long Cable Major
tokyo ginko 13:03 GMT May 9, 2014
NFP
eur/usd first target hit..S&P will try again today...GT all..
GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT May 9, 2014
April 2014 Canada Employment
CHART: Note the pattern in the blue line (three-mo avg) mva of jobs is gradually falling. We average Canadian (and Australian) employment data because of the volatility in the monthly data.
CAD much weaker.
eu pat 12:40 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
I don't like type a number)) correct is 1.08935...
sorry but always I want as soon as possible to type open/close position at real tim
eu pat 12:35 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
eu pat 16:50 GMT May 8, 2014
usd: Reply
what a life I relaxing...but checked usd/cad and bought now at 1.08325... I do not now...never rest at this market,,,sl 25 pips..risk trade
__________________________________________________
out at 1.89235
thanks Red for atention to this pair))
GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT May 9, 2014
April 2014 Canada Employment
Employment decreased by 29,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.9% as the number of people participating in the labour market edged down. There has been little overall employment growth in Canada since August 2013.
On a year-over-year basis, the number of people working rose by 0.8% or 149,000, evenly split between part-time and full-time work...
-- StatCan
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:24 GMT May 9, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
1.3772 tested - key weekly level as per my video - so far not much in the way of stops but enough for an outside week (low so far 1.3770). Close vs. this level is what matters now.
GVI Forex john 12:10 GMT May 9, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
It is logical to assume that this will be a risk-off session today. There is no good reason to take on additional risk into what could be an active weekend in Ukraine.
In my opinion, markets have been remarkably slow to react to Draghi's comments made yesterday. When a central banker uses the words "serious concern" you have to pay attention. His words were presented in an off-handed manner, but when you see them in print, you can tell they were carefully selected.
I can recall a time when we would have seen a much larger move instantaneously to such a comment. Draghi's comments yesterday were a "game changer", but today's markets seem to be slow (thick?) to comprehend the import of his comments yesterday.
Johannesburg HvW 11:56 GMT May 9, 2014
GBPJPY 172.14 wfakhoury DL
You forgot to mention this beaut, Mr.Wfakhoury?
Spot-on and continued success to you.
Any reconfirmation at this point for further support?
SaaR KaL 11:11 GMT May 9, 2014
Next week's Close P.I
GBPCAD
Buying for sure FOR NEXT WEEK CLOSE
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 1.8656 1.8370
Till Close P.I 1.8657 1.8232
AVG Close 1.8502 1.8361
Amman wfakhoury 11:09 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD 13770 Confirmed
Reply
13770 confirmed and will be reached ..unless 1 hr bar closed above 13810. any rise above 13810 will return to it if 13770 did not reach before.
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Amman wfakhoury 11:06 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD 13810 confirmed
we have 13790 previous confirmed level.
___________________________________
13790 reached
Belgrade TD 11:04 GMT May 9, 2014
eur/usd
maybe or maybe not :)
Amman wfakhoury 11:04 GMT May 9, 2014
EURJPY 140.00 Confirmed
Reply
140.00 confirmed will be reached unless 1 hr bar closed above 140.40..any rise above 140.40 will return to it if 140.00 did not reached.
eu pat 10:56 GMT May 9, 2014
eur/usd
Reply
daily chart for euro players...trendline from last summer...will Draghis a few words change trend?
SaaR KaL 10:39 GMT May 9, 2014
Next week's Close P.I
On Idiotic Politicians Level
EurUSD
in 6 months
from 1.42 to 1.450
Level is where you short it
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 1.4183 1.3024
Till Close P.I 1.4494 1.2995
AVG Close 1.3838 1.3510
SaaR KaL 10:25 GMT May 9, 2014
Next week's Close P.I
audcad
Traders are generally right
The P.I is the problem
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 1.0255 1.0071
Till Close P.I 1.0277 1.0071
AVG Close 1.0177 1.0154
SaaR KaL 10:21 GMT May 9, 2014
Next week's Close P.I
USDCAD
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 1.1057 1.0876
Till Close P.I 1.1064 1.0759
AVG Close 1.0965 1.0841
Belgrade Knez 10:15 GMT May 9, 2014
EURJPY 140.40 confirmed
Amman
140.40 is only 10 pips away ..... which direction will move for 80 pips, please?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:14 GMT May 9, 2014
MY name
WFakhoury (and others). Setup your profile in our membership directory and people can contact you that way.
Global-View Member Directory
Amman wfakhoury 10:10 GMT May 9, 2014
MY name
Reply
any request wit an error in my name will be ignored.
SaaR KaL 10:02 GMT May 9, 2014
Next week's Close P.I
eurcad
a Major Buy
Indictor High Low
Close P.I 1.5357 1.5050
Till Close P.I 1.5376 1.4896
AVG Close 1.5208 1.5035
SaaR KaL 09:59 GMT May 9, 2014
Next week's Close P.I
Silver is very interesting
I think this 18.5 to 18.30
is a long time Low
next Month 22 is possible
Indicator High Low
Close P.I 19.9408 18.3166
Till Close P.I 20.5420 18.3166
AVG Close 19.6150 19.0409
Amman wfakhoury 09:57 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD 13810 confirmed
SG DL 09:26 GMT 05/09/2014
Wfak master any confirmed levels for EURJPY and GBPJPY
___________________________________________
EURJPY consolidates at 140.65 since yesterday.
GBPJPY 171.70 confirmed will be reached unless 1 hr bar closed above 172.14
any rise above 172.14 will return to it
________________
note my name is wfakhoury
SaaR KaL 09:53 GMT May 9, 2014
Next week's Close P.I
Reply
Cable
High Low
Close P.I 1.70366 1.67340
Till Close P.I 1.71569 1.67192
AVG Close 1.69908 1.6857
eurusd
High Low
Close P.I 1.40032 1.37339
Till Close P.I 1.40775 1.37290
AVG Close 1.39298 1.3851
AUDUSD
High Low
Close P.I 0.9407 0.9134
Till Close P.I 0.9523 0.9130
AVG Close 0.9372 0.9254
Belgrade TD 09:37 GMT May 9, 2014
Daily TA trade
Belgrade TD 11:39 GMT May 7, 2014
Buy USDCHF ... Entry: ~0.875 Target: 0.883+ Stop: ~0.87
###
1/4 out ~0,879 ... just reducing risk ...
###
another 2/4 out ~0.882+ ... for rest 1/4 trailing 30pips ...
GVI Forex john 09:02 GMT May 9, 2014
Risk on (green) Risk off (red) Table
Reply
More red than green early on Friday as we had expected before another politically uncertain weekend. Markets are moving into in a "risk-off" posture. Yields in prime fixed income markets are mostly lower. Equities are mixed to lower following late session weakness in U.S. shares. Far East markets ended mixed. U.S. S&P futures are down slightly. The peripheral European bond yields are lower. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.61%, 0bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green)
and risk-off (red).
SaaR KaL 08:44 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
cable
5/9/14 4:00 PM High Low
Close P.I 1.70265 1.68749
Till Close P.I 1.70265 1.68636
AVG Close 1.69440 1.6933
Amman wfakhoury 07:30 GMT May 9, 2014
GBPJPY 172.14 wfakhoury DL
Reply
172.14 wfakhoury directional level ..consolidates at it since yestrday.
the close of 1 hr bar above it means 172.58 is coming
below it 171.70 is coming.
we are awaiting the confirmation one of the avove said levels.
VENICE fede 07:26 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD 13810 confirmed
Great Amman!.. is possible have your email to contact you
Amman wfakhoury 07:20 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD 13810 confirmed
Reply
13810 confirmed will be reached unless 1 hr bar closed above 13832.
any rise above 13832 will return to it if 13810 did not reach before.
we have 13790 previous confirmed level.
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
eu pat 06:48 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD 13975 confirmed
just update...after bad GER trade balance I out of long eur/usd minus 17 pips... Buy eur is now bad choice..I have to listen kings of markets- central banks...they change long term set up in a few minutes
Johannesburg HvW 06:07 GMT May 9, 2014
GBP/JPY summary
Reply
Good morning Mr.Wfakhoury,
Your views on the G/J plse.
Continued success to you.
Thanking you in advance.
Amman wfakhoury 04:53 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD 13975 confirmed
Amman wfakhoury 13:10 GMT 05/08/2014
13902 reached as previous confirmed.
now we are looking for 13832
_______________________________
13832 reached
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
kl fs 04:19 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD (Revised)
euro cannot do it alone, cable, audusd and even usdcad are indicating weak usd is the theme
try long euro as it is testing the previous big downward sloping triangle resistance line which is now support, 1.3840, stop 50 below for today, looking at a close above 1.39 later
bali sja 04:09 GMT May 9, 2014
EURUSD (Revised)
well done Rafe, welcome to sell-usd side :) so now you are exceeding my 1.42, 1.4746? not bad..not bad :)
give this ECB cheap talk a few days to unwind, then we go up higher and higher, usd cheerleaders will come back later that's when one should go in and sell usd silently...bye for now....
Saar KaL 04:09 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
GBPJPY
Longs
173.1585 171.4059
174.0415 170.5362
Saar KaL 04:03 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
gold shorts
1,298.8620 1,279.9020
1,308.4471 1,270.5261
nw kw 03:24 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
so now I can find a big short for xauaud tks
nw kw 03:21 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
tks for helping with this dilemma // im still a short time trader o well
Saar KaL 03:19 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
AUDCAD Nice Long
1.0205 1.0117
1.0249 1.0074
probably hits 1.03
nw kw 03:11 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
aud/cad long term what do you see
Saar KaL 03:11 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
AUDUSD Longs till 0.9250
0.9443 0.9315
0.9508 0.9252
Saar KaL 03:05 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
I agree KW
Saar KaL 03:04 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
KW
I check USDCAD Longer term
AUG, Sept...should trade around 1.15 area
Does that Help?
nw kw 03:01 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
if you are long usd/cad and aud/usd but cad is stronger than aud
Saar KaL 03:00 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
NZDJPY is on the buy Menu
88.3774 87.2784
88.9320 86.7341
Placed Long orders
87.2 to 86.7
Saar KaL 02:57 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
KW
I have no idea what you are saying...I am Sorry.
I am only Techancial ...nothing else my friend
Sorry
nw kw 02:49 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
KaL monitor aud cad weekly for cat has a new gateway for its oil in California it has no oil export restriction's so cat starting to send its oil there and California is going to ramp up its capacity to//cat was week for the oil spread to us oil now it doesn't haft to be week to compete with us oil
Saar KaL 02:30 GMT May 9, 2014
usd
Still Buying EURCAD
EURUSD, USDCAD and now placing longs on AUDUSD (Although it is in middle of a turn imo)
EURCAD Long from around 1.4957 as well
Cable Longs for this range
1.7055 1.6835
dc CB 01:57 GMT May 9, 2014
this is not from the Onion
Self-grading has obvious limitations in education. Now, a senior regulator at the Federal Reserve wants to banish it from bank regulation.
Under international banking rules, large banks are allowed to use their own tests to assess the riskiness of their assets and activities. Even after the financial crisis, these internal measurements play a role in setting capital requirements, the crucial financial buffer that helps a bank withstand losses and disruptions in the markets.
But in a speech on Thursday, Daniel K. Tarullo, the Fed governor who oversees regulation, said he believed that regulators should consider stopping the banks from using their own estimates. �The I.R.B. approach has little useful role to play,� he said, referring to the internal ratings-based approach, the official term for this self-assessment.
Regulator Suggests End to Banks� Self-Grading
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:54 GMT May 9, 2014
AceTrader May 9: Weekly Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD
Reply
WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ON EUR/USD
. EUR/USD - 1.3915 ... Despite euro's retreat after penetrating Jan's high at 1.3894 to 1.3967 on Mar, as long as 1.3477 sup holds, the 3-legged up move fm 1.2042 (Jul 2012) which is developing into a 3-legged a-b-c wave (see the details below) wud resume after consolidation, yield further gain to 1.4000 1st.
. Referring to the larger degree count below, the peak at 1.6040 (we called this Lehman top) marked the end of a 5-waver move fm 0.8228, the large 3-legged decline to 1.1876 is the A-B-C of the [A] wave, subsequent erratic rise to 2011 high at 1.4940 is also another 3-legged A-B-C of the [B] wave, the sell off fm 1.4248 is therefore the [C] wave n has ended at 1.2042 in July. The rally fm there is labeled as wave a:1.2042-1.3711; b:1.2745 n wave c may extend to 1.4000 n then 1.4414 (equality proj. of the length of wave a measured fm wave b trough).
. On the downside, only below 1.3295 wud risk weakness to 1.3105 but break needed to signal the 3-legged upmove is over n may yield weakness to 1.2745 1st.
GVI Forex 01:43 GMT May 9, 2014
China CPI
Reply
CHINA APR CPI +1.8% Y/Y VS MNI MEDIAN +2.0% Y/Y: NBS
CHINA APR CPI -0.3% M/M VS -0.5% M/M MAR: NBS
Mtl JP 01:33 GMT May 9, 2014
eurusd
viies // unusual ying yang trading from u, I am still hooked into your Tallinn viies 09:05 GMT May 6, 2014
eurusd: Reply
trying short euro here at 1,3925. stop at 1,3975 a bit over the high of this year.
target 1,3770
HK RF@ 01:05 GMT May 9, 2014
The big rats are leaving the sinking boat.
Reply
First it is the Privatebank, and now:
Chemical factories Stirol and Azot, based in Ukraine�s two eastern oblasts where Kremlin-backed separatist violence is high, on May 8 announced that they would temporarily suspend production until the situatlon settles down.
In 2013, these plants together produced 1.5 million tons of ammonia, a key component in nitrogen fertilizer, or 44 percent of Ukraine�s total, according to ukrchem.dp.ua. Chemical exports are worth $4.3 billion annually to Ukraine and make up 6.8% of merchandise exports.
..................................................
Ammonia production plants are too dangerous to keep near population centers in wartime.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:23 GMT May 9, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
John, as usual, summed it up well
GVI Forex john 18:42:15 GMT - 05/08/2014
Looking into Friday, it hard for me to imagine that it will not be a risk-off session with a lot of political uncertainty possible over the weekend. We still do not know if there will be an independence vote on Sunday. Tomorrow (Friday) sees "Victory Day" celebrations which could see pro-Russian protests. Be forewarned.
Dillon AL 00:10 GMT May 9, 2014
Belgian DentistTh
Maybe you know or not Par but Belgium has 3 very large and very old bond funds all beginning with the letter R
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.