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Forex Forum Archive for 05/12/2014

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Mtl JP 23:46 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)

I do not have the link handy but I do recall old Ben musing at some point in his past that the FED does not have to sell their mortgage holdings and take a loss coz, as Ben claimed, they can wait until the R/Estate pricing comes back.
-
The other thing that is somehow vividly stuck in my memory is Janet's redefining of the FED's official dual mission to a three-pronged one:
"The mandate of the Federal Reserve is to ...
- serve all the American people
- ensure that inflation remains in check and doesn't undermine the benefits of a growing economy
- We can and must safeguard the financial system." -
Yellen's October 9, 2013 Statement
--
Only one of the three appears as "absolute definitive" which tells me where her priority order is.

dc CB 21:52 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)

ps

"Sales of mortgage bonds are likely out"

that's because they bought up all the shite and putting them up for sal would put a "price" on them. Which is the last thing they want. D'oh

GVI Forex john 21:52 GMT May 12, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data



May 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 13. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- ZEW Survey, US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories.

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- ZEW Survey.
  • North America: US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, API Energy.


dc CB 21:45 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)

JP
yes yes yes Rev Repos are the new new Gooser.

bookmark this page. gives you the daily and also clicks show historical...velly enlightening.
Take a look as just this year - Jan to today.

Oh..raise rates? in Jan it was 0.03%...today it was 0.05%...so it used to be Free and now it's Sort-a-Almost Free.

But the Tell is the daily amt. $5xbln to the current $180 to $210bln

forget POMO. the real Juice is here.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

Dillon AL 21:35 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)

There is a small possibility of 2135ish being the S&P500 tgt
from which a re-test of prior all time high at 1580 would then be expected. Time frame this year followed by 2+ year pullback

GVI Forex Blog 21:31 GMT May 12, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
Sentiment was positive overnight in the absence of any major news. The S&P500 is currently up 0.9% to a one-month high, while US interest rates rose. Fed hawk Plosser spoke but avoided monetary policy topics, while the ECB's Nowotny said several stimulus measures were preferable to one and Constancio said it's too early to speculate on June policy action.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts.

Mtl JP 20:54 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)

suddenly Fed's strategy for exiting easy money policies is , claims Hilsenrath, "out‐of‐date"

Grand Central: Yellen’s First Job: Plumbing - in wsj

and Hilsy makes Janet's "first big project will be to rewrite" it.

dc CB 20:39 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)



almost rang the 1900 bell.

Looks like tomorrow will be Tuesday... continue the run? last Tuesday was the only miss of 8 weeks of Tuesdays. Maybe it was cause Gammy made those appearances on the Hill.

SaaR KaL 20:11 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

GTC
Longs EURUSD from 1.3733 to 1.3703
TGT 1.3776
in US Session Next day

GVI Forex john 19:56 GMT May 12, 2014
Chart Points -- Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

CT LV 19:46 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Thank you for the answer

GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Good Question. I haven't seen any impact yet. I keep pointing it out because it will have an impact if the weakness persists. This is simply something we all need to be aware of.

CT LV 19:37 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Does weeker than expected German data usually have a negative influence on the EUR?

NY JM 19:22 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

We hot a taste of volatility but back to the same lackluster ranges, only at better dollar levels.

Example, EURUSD traded a whopping 25 pip range today.

News junkie market had no news to trade on today.

GVI Forex john 19:19 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Tuesday

Germany: ZEW Survey- used as an indication of how the IFO Survey will fare in a week's time. ZEW is a survey of money managers and has become less volatile than it once was. German data recently have been consistently weaker than expected.

United States: Retail Sales- The consumer has to lead U.S recoveries so these data are critical to Fed policy. Core Retail Sales removes autos for a less distorted view of underlying trends. The Ex-autos and gas reading removes the influence of volatile gasoline prices.

Import prices gives a handle on "imported inflation", if any. Business Inventories. are useful as increasing inventories tend to increase the estimates for GDP.


MY focus will be ZEW and U.S. Retail Sales.

CT LV 19:05 GMT May 12, 2014
Calendar Heats up on Tuesday with Key German and U.S. Data

If the forecasted figure for the Germany data are correct, will it influence the EUR positively or negatively?

GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT May 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

DJIA and S&P at record high levels. Correction what correction?
10-yr 2.66% +4bp

GVI Forex john 18:59 GMT May 12, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


GVI Forex Blog 18:17 GMT May 12, 2014
Calendar Heats up on Tuesday with Key German and U.S. Data
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: DE- ZEW Survey, US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories

Following as quiet day for major data, the calendar will heat up on Tuesday. Major highlights include the German ZEW Survey and U.S. Retail Sales data.

Calendar Heats up on Tuesday with Key German and U.S. Data

dc CB 17:22 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)

today's RevRepo
$188.963 bln

dc CB 17:10 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve governor Jeremy C. Stein is the chairman of the internal committee that monitors financial markets for signs of trouble, and of the committee that watches the way that banks treat their customers.

He is also the only remaining member of those committees.

Mr. Stein has said that on May 28 he will step down from the Fed.

As Seats Go Unfilled, Federal Reserve Board Could Drop to Three Members

Cambridge Joe 16:10 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

SnP HOD in place IMO. GL

GVI Forex john 16:09 GMT May 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Refresh page Manually to update table

Cambridge Joe 16:09 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

USDX softer into / thru Asia from here IMO. GL

GVI Forex john 16:07 GMT May 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Rising stocks have set up a risk-on bias today in a session with no key data releases. Yields in prime fixed income markets are generally higher. Far East markets ended mixed. U.S. S&P futures are higher. The peripheral European bond yields are higher. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.65%, +3bp.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green)
and risk-off (red).

dc CB 15:52 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)
Reply   
LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) - Wait times to get metal out of warehouse firms owned by trade house Glencore and bank Goldman Sachs stretch up to two years, according the London Metal Exchange's (LME) first report detailing backlogs at its global network of depots.

Glencore, Goldman warehouses have longest aluminium queues-LME report

GVI Forex Blog 15:16 GMT May 12, 2014 Reply   
May 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 13. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- ZEW Survey, US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 13, 2014

GVI Forex john 15:14 GMT May 12, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


May 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 13. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- ZEW Survey, US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories.

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- ZEW Survey.
  • North America: US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, API Energy.


dc CB 15:12 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

less than 8 pts and SnP cash will break 1900
OPEX week at its finest...selling all those Puts to the Sell In May and Go Away crowd.

woo woo

dc CB 15:05 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

today's POMO done at $2.657Bln

gee wonder why stox r up?

GVI Forex john 14:57 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

S&P to USDJPY correlation trade kicked in beautifully as U.S. markets opened.

HK [email protected] 14:52 GMT May 12, 2014
It's going to have some fun:)
Reply   




@DRogozin denied entry to #Ukraine +Romanian airspace on trip to/from Transnistria: “Next time I will fly by Tupolev-160" [strategic bomber]

NY JM 14:45 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

JPY is sensitive to moves in US yields

GVI Forex john 14:44 GMT May 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.656 +3.6bp risk-on

NY JM 14:30 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Stocks up => bonds down => JPY, CHF down => EURUSD and some others getting support out of risk on crosses => ranges still tight

PAR 14:00 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Yes , even 1.4000 .

PAR 14:00 GMT May 12, 2014
CHINA
Reply   
China fuelling world stock and commodity market . Copper up more than 2%, Nickel at multi year high and rising .

SaaR KaL 13:46 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

1.38 +
Yes I do
AFter US close Next day

CT LV 13:43 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Is there anything to drive it till there?

London Chris 13:39 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Does anyone see 1.38 trading next?

SaaR KaL 13:26 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

cable shorts added

HK [email protected] 12:19 GMT May 12, 2014
As expected ;;)
Reply   


Russia Recognizes Referendum Outcome In Donetsk And Luhansk While Clashes Resume; EU Set To Extend Sanctions Against Russia

LINK

GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Reply   
Sluggish Monday to start the week, but the calendar will pick up starting tomorrow.Key German data are due Tuesday with the ZEW Survey set for release. Recall German data, which had been relatively strong for a good while have been turning relatively weak. U.S. retail Sales are always a key release because the U.S. consumer is key to an economic rebound.Thursday sees final April EZ CPI (HICP) data. The ECB targets headline inflation at "just below 2.00%. Keep in mind this means they have an inflation floor as well as a ceiling.

Risk-on/off table seems to show traders are in more of a risk-on frame of mind today. Look to equities for guidance. S&P futures are currently up 6.3pts.

The S&{ futures tu USDJPY correlation trade is not looking terribly tight at this hour.

SaaR KaL 10:48 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

Short and Silver for the day

GVI Forex Blog 10:15 GMT May 12, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Dealers were focusing on reports of last week ECB meeting. German press noted that ECB's Draghi's wording about being "comfortable to act next time" was not agreed upon by governing council and could reflect the conclusion of the controversial debates at the meeting

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Ukraine cities have first independence vote; Equities mostly higher

Mtl JP 10:04 GMT May 12, 2014
EUR

PAR 06:25 what about China's role ?

Hong Kong AceTrader 10:03 GMT May 12, 2014
AceTrader May 12:Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

12 May 2014 09:54GMT

EUR/USD - 1.3767
ECB's Constancio adds 'inflation will likely stay below 1% for some time.'

ECB's Constancio says 'mid-term inflation projections are what really matter for next policy meeting; looking at wide range of possible measures won't speculate on June action; ECB can't ignore euro strength but exchange rate not policy target; ECB concerned that inflation going through period of very low values.'

ECB's Nowotny says 'energy, food prices create strg elements of uncertainty for inflation; need to avoid short-term pro-cyclical effects fm fiscal rules in Europe.'

Russia's Lavrov says 'no new international talks planned for now on Ukraine.'

GVI Forex john 09:45 GMT May 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   
Mostly green early Monday suggesting a "risk-on" bias after the weekend has passed. Yields in prime fixed income markets are generally lower. Equities are mixed to higher to start the week. Far East markets ended mixed. U.S. S&P futures are higher. The peripheral European bond yields are higher. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.64%, +2bp.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).

london red 09:45 GMT May 12, 2014
retracement theory
Reply   
after closing at/near lows for the week, both euro and cable have bounced, the latter quite firmly into the prior weeks range. eurgbp however has traded only 10 above last weeks low and there is a high probability that we will need to retrace up towards possibly as high as 8200 before going lower again. this suggests a period of euro outperforming cable. this doesnt necessarily mean that euro goes up, but it could be that euro falls slower than cable. this theory however might be a little unlikely given the important data due for cable in the middle of this week. its likely that tuesday into wednesday will see buying in cable ahead of boe inflation report and jobs data. in the latter wages are going to be very important and its possible that jobs figure may slightly underperform along with a strong wages print (this would suggest reduction in slack).
however today we might see cable drift back from either the 200 hour (16902) or fibs at 9/14. stops likely above 35 but possibly a bridge too far today with eurgbp due to give some back at 8141

SaaR KaL 09:35 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

NZDCAD @ P.I
5/12/14 9:30 AM 0.9421 0.9374
5/12/14 4:00 PM 0.9422 0.9374
5/13/14 9:30 AM 0.9379 0.9332

GBPJPY shorting now
5/12/14 9:30 AM 172.2079 171.4961
5/12/14 4:00 PM 171.9747 171.2639
5/13/14 9:30 AM 172.4965 171.7835

CT LV 09:34 GMT May 12, 2014
EUR/USD

Correction: 13790

CT LV 09:32 GMT May 12, 2014
EUR/USD
Reply   
If EUR/USD can break through 1.3772. it can go to the next Fib level at 1.37791

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:22 GMT May 12, 2014
AceTrader May 12: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
Reply   


DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2497

12 May 2014 06:57GMT

Usd's rebound fm Thur's 1.2456 low signals choppy
trading abv Apr's 4-month 1.2451 wud continue n res
1.2510/11 needs to hold for resumtpion of decline.

Trade fm short side but 1.2406/10 shud hold. Abv
1.2510/11 wud risk stronger retrace. to 1.2530/40.


STRATEGY : Short at 1.2485

POSITION : Short at 1.2485

OBJECTIVE : 1.2435

STOP-LOSS : 1.2515

RES : 1.2510/1.2523/1.2569

SUP : 1.2451/1.2422/1.2406

HK [email protected] 08:09 GMT May 12, 2014
Chinese warplanes violate Vietnamese airspace
Reply   


Over the past two days, China’s warplanes have repeatedly violated Vietnam’s airspace over the South China Sea, Vice Commander of the Coast Guard of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV) Colonel Ngo Ngoc Thu said on Monday.
According to him, Chinese combat aviation planes were sent to the South China Sea area where since May, Vietnam claims, China’s drilling platform Haiyang Shiyou 981 is illegally located.

CT LV 07:35 GMT May 12, 2014
Mr Wfakhry

We will miss your levels dearly :(

Belgrade TD 07:29 GMT May 12, 2014
Mr Wfakhry

###
Amman wfakhoury 16:03 GMT May 9, 2014
MY signals: Reply
will be stopped at this forum till the end of May ...I am very busy this month.
###
... from the Archive, last week ... GL

CT LV 07:22 GMT May 12, 2014
Mr Wfakhry

Oops I use an abreviation!

Johannesburg HvW 07:11 GMT May 12, 2014
Mr Wfakhry

Only if you spell his name correctly, than "yes" - he is most helpful.

Mr.Wfakhoury.

SaaR KaL 07:08 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

GBPCAD
1.8386 1.8335
short here with spikes

SaaR KaL 06:45 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

some cable shorts
1.6866 1.6826
1.6888 tops

SaaR KaL 06:41 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

will short some eurusd above
1.3767
tgt 1.3738

Hong Kong AceTrader 06:28 GMT May 12, 2014
AceTrader May 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY AUD/USD
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

12 May 2014 05:20GMT

USD/JPY - 101.97 ... Economy Watchers survery showed Japan's service sector sentiment fell to 41.6 in April from 57.9 in March. Japan government cuts assessment on service; said economy is recovering moderately as a trend, but some weakness seen recently due to sales tax hike effect.

01:47GMT
USD/JPY - 101.97
The greenback ratcheted higher to 102.05 against the Japanese yen in Asia today due to initial gain in Nikkei-225 index, following the rise in U.S. stock markets last Friday, however, investors may buy Japanese yen again due to an escalation in East-West tensions after pro-Moscow rebels declared victory in a referendum on self-rule in eastern Ukraine. Some offers are tipped at 102.20, 102.50 and 103.00 whilst some bids are located at 101.50 and 101.00.

Organisers of the weekend referendum said nearly 90 percent had voted in favour, possibly opening the way for the region to break away from Kiev in a conflict increasingly out of control.

12 May 2014 01:34GMT

AUD/USD - 0.9356
Australian April business confidence index rises to 6 versus 4 in March. The Australian dollar bounces briefly from 0.9349 after the data.

PAR 06:25 GMT May 12, 2014
EUR
Reply   
EUR moving higher as Draghi is losing credibility and Yellen keeps US rates low forever.

CT LV 06:23 GMT May 12, 2014
Mr Wfakhry
Reply   
Will it help to ask for Wfakhry's EUR/USD levels today? Please?

SaaR KaL 06:21 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

NZDCHF
0.7640 0.7595
good sell now

SaaR KaL 06:18 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

EURNZD
1.6030 1.5958
Good Long now

SaaR KaL 06:01 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

GBPJPY
171.76 171.07

AUDUSD
0.9371 0.9339

USDCAD

1.0914 1.0886

SaaR KaL 06:01 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

GBPJPY
171.76 171.07

AUDUSD
0.9371 0.9339

USDCAD

1.0914 1.0886

SaaR KaL 06:01 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges

GBPJPY
171.76 171.07

AUDUSD
0.9371 0.9339

USDCAD

SaaR KaL 05:48 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
Reply   
EURUSD
1.3783 1.3753

Gold
1,300.24 1,283.44

cable
1.6872 1.6829

===
EURJPY
140.32 139.82
SHorts
140.5021 140.3695
===

GVI Forex Blog 03:37 GMT May 12, 2014 Reply   
The Dow (16583.34) and Dax (9581.45) maintained overall strength on Friday and continue

Morning Briefing : 12-May-2014 -0337 GMT

Mtl JP 01:16 GMT May 12, 2014
Ukraine

Phila Caba 00:15 / trade on expectation of bonds and stocks going down

HK [email protected] 01:09 GMT May 12, 2014
Surprises will not be lacking.
Reply   


The 85% water supply cutoff from Crimea by Ukraine, which may be considered a crime against humanity(not according to Obama), may be another flash-point.

Though the Russians promised to supply through other very expensive alternatives, I suspect that a military operation is more probable.

A solution to force open the valves, is a much faster solution and much less costly than other alternatives.

The Q. is how will it be accepted in the west?
And what will be the reaction.

Phila Caba 00:15 GMT May 12, 2014
Ukraine

How're you trading your posts here?

tokyo ginko 00:15 GMT May 12, 2014
long nk for target 14800
Reply   
long here @ 14165 GT all!

HK [email protected] 00:06 GMT May 12, 2014
Ukraine



One must be naive to believe that things will pass smooth from now on.
Now the lines of conflict are clearly defined: A sovereign state was created inside Ukraine, which means they will have to kick out the previous authorities.

This will not pass without a war. People against an army, like the American independence war.

Probably more sanctions will be imposed on Russia, and Russia will retaliate, which may have strong impacts on markets.

nw kw 00:04 GMT May 12, 2014
Is Forex Trading Rigged? Insider Currency Trading Exposed

x charts poss short eur/gbp poss storm drop

 




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