Mtl JP 23:46 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)
I do not have the link handy but I do recall old Ben musing at some point in his past that the FED does not have to sell their mortgage holdings and take a loss coz, as Ben claimed, they can wait until the R/Estate pricing comes back.
-
The other thing that is somehow vividly stuck in my memory is Janet's redefining of the FED's official dual mission to a three-pronged one:
"The mandate of the Federal Reserve is to ...
- serve all the American people
- ensure that inflation remains in check and doesn't undermine the benefits of a growing economy
- We can and must safeguard the financial system." -
Yellen's October 9, 2013 Statement
--
Only one of the three appears as "absolute definitive" which tells me where her priority order is.
dc CB 21:52 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)
ps
"Sales of mortgage bonds are likely out"
that's because they bought up all the shite and putting them up for sal would put a "price" on them. Which is the last thing they want. D'oh
GVI Forex john 21:52 GMT May 12, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
May 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 13.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- ZEW Survey, US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business
Inventories.
- Far East: No Major Data.
- Europe: DE- ZEW Survey.
- North America: US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, API Energy.
dc CB 21:45 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)
JP
yes yes yes Rev Repos are the new new Gooser.
bookmark this page. gives you the daily and also clicks show historical...velly enlightening.
Take a look as just this year - Jan to today.
Oh..raise rates? in Jan it was 0.03%...today it was 0.05%...so it used to be Free and now it's Sort-a-Almost Free.
But the Tell is the daily amt. $5xbln to the current $180 to $210bln
forget POMO. the real Juice is here.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
Dillon AL 21:35 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)
There is a small possibility of 2135ish being the S&P500 tgt
from which a re-test of prior all time high at 1580 would then be expected. Time frame this year followed by 2+ year pullback
GVI Forex Blog 21:31 GMT May 12, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply
Sentiment was positive overnight in the absence of any major news. The S&P500 is currently up 0.9% to a one-month high, while US interest rates rose. Fed hawk Plosser spoke but avoided monetary policy topics, while the ECB's Nowotny said several stimulus measures were preferable to one and Constancio said it's too early to speculate on June policy action.
Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts.
dc CB 20:39 GMT May 12, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)
almost rang the 1900 bell.
Looks like tomorrow will be Tuesday... continue the run? last Tuesday was the only miss of 8 weeks of Tuesdays. Maybe it was cause Gammy made those appearances on the Hill.
SaaR KaL 20:11 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
GTC
Longs EURUSD from 1.3733 to 1.3703
TGT 1.3776
in US Session Next day
GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Good Question. I haven't seen any impact yet. I keep pointing it out because it will have an impact if the weakness persists. This is simply something we all need to be aware of.
NY JM 19:22 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
We hot a taste of volatility but back to the same lackluster ranges, only at better dollar levels.
Example, EURUSD traded a whopping 25 pip range today.
News junkie market had no news to trade on today.
GVI Forex john 19:19 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Tuesday
Germany: ZEW Survey- used as an indication of how the IFO Survey will fare in a week's time. ZEW is a survey of money managers and has become less volatile than it once was. German data recently have been consistently weaker than expected.
United States: Retail Sales- The consumer has to lead U.S recoveries so these data are critical to Fed policy. Core Retail Sales removes autos for a less distorted view of underlying trends. The Ex-autos and gas reading removes the influence of volatile gasoline prices.
Import prices gives a handle on "imported inflation", if any. Business Inventories. are useful as increasing inventories tend to increase the estimates for GDP.
MY focus will be ZEW and U.S. Retail Sales.
GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT May 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
DJIA and S&P at record high levels. Correction what correction?
10-yr 2.66% +4bp
GVI Forex john 16:07 GMT May 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Rising stocks have set up a risk-on bias today in a session with no key data releases. Yields in prime fixed income markets are generally higher. Far East markets ended mixed. U.S. S&P futures are higher. The peripheral European bond yields are higher. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.65%, +3bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green)
and risk-off (red).
GVI Forex Blog 15:16 GMT May 12, 2014
Reply
May 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 13. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- ZEW Survey, US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 13, 2014
GVI Forex john 15:14 GMT May 12, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
May 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, May 13.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- ZEW Survey, US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business
Inventories.
- Far East: No Major Data.
- Europe: DE- ZEW Survey.
- North America: US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, API Energy.
dc CB 15:12 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
less than 8 pts and SnP cash will break 1900
OPEX week at its finest...selling all those Puts to the Sell In May and Go Away crowd.
woo woo
HK RF@ 14:52 GMT May 12, 2014
It's going to have some fun:)
Reply
@DRogozin denied entry to #Ukraine +Romanian airspace on trip to/from Transnistria: �Next time I will fly by Tupolev-160" [strategic bomber]
NY JM 14:30 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Stocks up => bonds down => JPY, CHF down => EURUSD and some others getting support out of risk on crosses => ranges still tight
PAR 14:00 GMT May 12, 2014
CHINA
Reply
China fuelling world stock and commodity market . Copper up more than 2%, Nickel at multi year high and rising .
HK RF@ 12:19 GMT May 12, 2014
As expected ;;)
Reply
Russia Recognizes Referendum Outcome In Donetsk And Luhansk While Clashes Resume; EU Set To Extend Sanctions Against Russia
LINK
GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT May 12, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Reply
Sluggish Monday to start the week, but the calendar will pick up starting tomorrow.Key German data are due Tuesday with the ZEW Survey set for release. Recall German data, which had been relatively strong for a good while have been turning relatively weak. U.S. retail Sales are always a key release because the U.S. consumer is key to an economic rebound.Thursday sees final April EZ CPI (HICP) data. The ECB targets headline inflation at "just below 2.00%. Keep in mind this means they have an inflation floor as well as a ceiling.
Risk-on/off table seems to show traders are in more of a risk-on frame of mind today. Look to equities for guidance. S&P futures are currently up 6.3pts.
The S&{ futures tu USDJPY correlation trade is not looking terribly tight at this hour.
SaaR KaL 10:48 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
Short and Silver for the day
Mtl JP 10:04 GMT May 12, 2014
EUR
PAR 06:25 what about China's role ?
Hong Kong AceTrader 10:03 GMT May 12, 2014
AceTrader May 12:Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
12 May 2014 09:54GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3767
ECB's Constancio adds 'inflation will likely stay below 1% for some time.'
ECB's Constancio says 'mid-term inflation projections are what really matter for next policy meeting; looking at wide range of possible measures won't speculate on June action; ECB can't ignore euro strength but exchange rate not policy target; ECB concerned that inflation going through period of very low values.'
ECB's Nowotny says 'energy, food prices create strg elements of uncertainty for inflation; need to avoid short-term pro-cyclical effects fm fiscal rules in Europe.'
Russia's Lavrov says 'no new international talks planned for now on Ukraine.'
GVI Forex john 09:45 GMT May 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
Mostly green early Monday suggesting a "risk-on" bias after the weekend has passed. Yields in prime fixed income markets are generally lower. Equities are mixed to higher to start the week. Far East markets ended mixed. U.S. S&P futures are higher. The peripheral European bond yields are higher. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.64%, +2bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).
london red 09:45 GMT May 12, 2014
retracement theory
Reply
after closing at/near lows for the week, both euro and cable have bounced, the latter quite firmly into the prior weeks range. eurgbp however has traded only 10 above last weeks low and there is a high probability that we will need to retrace up towards possibly as high as 8200 before going lower again. this suggests a period of euro outperforming cable. this doesnt necessarily mean that euro goes up, but it could be that euro falls slower than cable. this theory however might be a little unlikely given the important data due for cable in the middle of this week. its likely that tuesday into wednesday will see buying in cable ahead of boe inflation report and jobs data. in the latter wages are going to be very important and its possible that jobs figure may slightly underperform along with a strong wages print (this would suggest reduction in slack).
however today we might see cable drift back from either the 200 hour (16902) or fibs at 9/14. stops likely above 35 but possibly a bridge too far today with eurgbp due to give some back at 8141
SaaR KaL 09:35 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
NZDCAD @ P.I
5/12/14 9:30 AM 0.9421 0.9374
5/12/14 4:00 PM 0.9422 0.9374
5/13/14 9:30 AM 0.9379 0.9332
GBPJPY shorting now
5/12/14 9:30 AM 172.2079 171.4961
5/12/14 4:00 PM 171.9747 171.2639
5/13/14 9:30 AM 172.4965 171.7835
CT LV 09:34 GMT May 12, 2014
EUR/USD
Correction: 13790
CT LV 09:32 GMT May 12, 2014
EUR/USD
Reply
If EUR/USD can break through 1.3772. it can go to the next Fib level at 1.37791
Hong Kong AceTrader 08:22 GMT May 12, 2014
AceTrader May 12: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
Reply
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2497
12 May 2014 06:57GMT
Usd's rebound fm Thur's 1.2456 low signals choppy
trading abv Apr's 4-month 1.2451 wud continue n res
1.2510/11 needs to hold for resumtpion of decline.
Trade fm short side but 1.2406/10 shud hold. Abv
1.2510/11 wud risk stronger retrace. to 1.2530/40.
STRATEGY : Short at 1.2485
POSITION : Short at 1.2485
OBJECTIVE : 1.2435
STOP-LOSS : 1.2515
RES : 1.2510/1.2523/1.2569
SUP : 1.2451/1.2422/1.2406
HK RF@ 08:09 GMT May 12, 2014
Chinese warplanes violate Vietnamese airspace
Reply
Over the past two days, China�s warplanes have repeatedly violated Vietnam�s airspace over the South China Sea, Vice Commander of the Coast Guard of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV) Colonel Ngo Ngoc Thu said on Monday.
According to him, Chinese combat aviation planes were sent to the South China Sea area where since May, Vietnam claims, China�s drilling platform Haiyang Shiyou 981 is illegally located.
CT LV 07:35 GMT May 12, 2014
Mr Wfakhry
We will miss your levels dearly :(
Belgrade TD 07:29 GMT May 12, 2014
Mr Wfakhry
###
Amman wfakhoury 16:03 GMT May 9, 2014
MY signals: Reply
will be stopped at this forum till the end of May ...I am very busy this month.
###
... from the Archive, last week ... GL
CT LV 07:22 GMT May 12, 2014
Mr Wfakhry
Oops I use an abreviation!
Johannesburg HvW 07:11 GMT May 12, 2014
Mr Wfakhry
Only if you spell his name correctly, than "yes" - he is most helpful.
Mr.Wfakhoury.
SaaR KaL 07:08 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
GBPCAD
1.8386 1.8335
short here with spikes
SaaR KaL 06:45 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
some cable shorts
1.6866 1.6826
1.6888 tops
SaaR KaL 06:41 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
will short some eurusd above
1.3767
tgt 1.3738
Hong Kong AceTrader 06:28 GMT May 12, 2014
AceTrader May 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY AUD/USD
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 May 2014 05:20GMT
USD/JPY - 101.97 ... Economy Watchers survery showed Japan's service sector sentiment fell to 41.6 in April from 57.9 in March. Japan government cuts assessment on service; said economy is recovering moderately as a trend, but some weakness seen recently due to sales tax hike effect.
01:47GMT
USD/JPY - 101.97
The greenback ratcheted higher to 102.05 against the Japanese yen in Asia today due to initial gain in Nikkei-225 index, following the rise in U.S. stock markets last Friday, however, investors may buy Japanese yen again due to an escalation in East-West tensions after pro-Moscow rebels declared victory in a referendum on self-rule in eastern Ukraine. Some offers are tipped at 102.20, 102.50 and 103.00 whilst some bids are located at 101.50 and 101.00.
Organisers of the weekend referendum said nearly 90 percent had voted in favour, possibly opening the way for the region to break away from Kiev in a conflict increasingly out of control.
12 May 2014 01:34GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9356
Australian April business confidence index rises to 6 versus 4 in March. The Australian dollar bounces briefly from 0.9349 after the data.
PAR 06:25 GMT May 12, 2014
EUR
Reply
EUR moving higher as Draghi is losing credibility and Yellen keeps US rates low forever.
CT LV 06:23 GMT May 12, 2014
Mr Wfakhry
Reply
Will it help to ask for Wfakhry's EUR/USD levels today? Please?
SaaR KaL 06:21 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
NZDCHF
0.7640 0.7595
good sell now
SaaR KaL 06:18 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
EURNZD
1.6030 1.5958
Good Long now
SaaR KaL 06:01 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
GBPJPY
171.76 171.07
AUDUSD
0.9371 0.9339
USDCAD
1.0914 1.0886
SaaR KaL 06:01 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
GBPJPY
171.76 171.07
AUDUSD
0.9371 0.9339
USDCAD
1.0914 1.0886
SaaR KaL 06:01 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
GBPJPY
171.76 171.07
AUDUSD
0.9371 0.9339
USDCAD
SaaR KaL 05:48 GMT May 12, 2014
US Close Ranges
Reply
EURUSD
1.3783 1.3753
Gold
1,300.24 1,283.44
cable
1.6872 1.6829
===
EURJPY
140.32 139.82
SHorts
140.5021 140.3695
===
Mtl JP 01:16 GMT May 12, 2014
Ukraine
Phila Caba 00:15 / trade on expectation of bonds and stocks going down
HK RF@ 01:09 GMT May 12, 2014
Surprises will not be lacking.
Reply
The 85% water supply cutoff from Crimea by Ukraine, which may be considered a crime against humanity(not according to Obama), may be another flash-point.
Though the Russians promised to supply through other very expensive alternatives, I suspect that a military operation is more probable.
A solution to force open the valves, is a much faster solution and much less costly than other alternatives.
The Q. is how will it be accepted in the west?
And what will be the reaction.
Phila Caba 00:15 GMT May 12, 2014
Ukraine
How're you trading your posts here?
HK RF@ 00:06 GMT May 12, 2014
Ukraine
One must be naive to believe that things will pass smooth from now on.
Now the lines of conflict are clearly defined: A sovereign state was created inside Ukraine, which means they will have to kick out the previous authorities.
This will not pass without a war. People against an army, like the American independence war.
Probably more sanctions will be imposed on Russia, and Russia will retaliate, which may have strong impacts on markets.
many more chart points
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