GVI Forex 23:53 GMT May 14, 2014
Japan GDP
Reply
JAPAN Q1 REAL GDP +1.5% Q/Q; MNI MEDIAN FORECAST +1.2%
GVI Forex john 21:37 GMT May 14, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
May 14, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 15.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- GDP, Final HICP, US- CPI, Empire PMI, Weekly Jobless, TIC
Flows, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed, Fed's Yellen.
- Far East: JP- GDP.
- Europe: EZ- GDP, Final HICP.
- North America: US- CPI, Empire PMI, Weekly Jobless, TIC Flows, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed, Natural Gas, Fed's Yellen.
GVI Forex john 20:26 GMT May 14, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
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Thursday
Eurozone: Final April HICP- this is a key piece of data along with flash May HICP at the end of the month for the June ECB policy decision. Draghi has hinted at a policy easing at that meeting.
Composite EZ GDP are also due and another piece of the puzzle.
United States: CPI- will certainly be watched closely, The dovish Fed policy is predicated on no inflationary pressures. U.S. PPI data today were a surprise.
Weekly Jobless Claims- are not much of a market-mover these days, but they are something we watch as a background factor.
TIC Data- are more closely watched by people other than me. I've never seen someone trade on them.
Regional Sentiment Indices- Due are the Empire and Philly Fed Indices.
With Yellen's focus on housing, the NAHB index is something we all need to monitor in the context of other upcoming housing metrics.
Yellen speaks on the economy after the close. With bond yields tumbling, she could have something to say?
Paris ib 20:13 GMT May 14, 2014
BELGIUM
PAR these darn Belgians.... they are everywhere. :-))
PAR 19:58 GMT May 14, 2014
BELGIUM
Reply
Rumors Belgium buying � Billions of German bunds today .
Paris ib 19:40 GMT May 14, 2014
STOX
nh - a gap is a gap.
Livingston nh 19:38 GMT May 14, 2014
STOX
Reply
Bias has been usual bounce into close - folks may be willing to let the downturn run o/n - Monday's spike open gap needs to be filled below spx 1880 (1845 gap fading into past)
nw kw 18:34 GMT May 14, 2014
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tks.red-still tracking gdp"s
http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2014/05/09/international-economic-update-low-inflation-and-slower-medium-term-growth-accompany-uneven-recovery-1
GVI Forex Blog 18:29 GMT May 14, 2014
BOE Dovish. Disappointing U.K. Jobs. EZ Final HICP Data Slated
Reply
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: EZ- GDP, Final HICP, US- CPI, Empire PMI, Weekly Jobless, TIC Flows, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed, Fed's Yellen.
The highlight Thursday will be final April HICP data, which could figure into the June ECB decision. On Friday, markets clearly will be focused on U.S. Housing Starts and Permits after Yellen's comments.
BOE Dovish. Disappointing U.K. Jobs. EZ Final HICP Data Slated
Paris ib 18:26 GMT May 14, 2014
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red - I think with the risk of sanctions and an escalation in geopolitics it is more likely that foreign money is frozen in the United States. And there is an awful lot of foreign money in the United States.
What's interesting is that while Russia appears to have moved money out - selling U.S. Treasuries in bulk - the FED has moved behind the scenes to buy Treasuries out of Belgium. Covert QE if you like. Though I doubt you'll get Yellen to comment on that.
It's a bit mind boggling but the implications of money printing are the same: a devalued currency.
london red 18:24 GMT May 14, 2014
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5yr so far this year looks messier than 10 yr certainly. we havent really broken higher. would probably look to april high/50% fib (of arguable penant) as last line in sand. flipside a weekly close below the 20 week ma would be a signal of continued lower highs. but not a very clean chart for me at least. quite glad i dont trade it tbh. 10 yr looks easier to pick entry and stop.
nw kw 18:09 GMT May 14, 2014
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red what do you see in 5y had reference its trading on fut growth
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:05 GMT May 14, 2014
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10-year 2.50% is one of those psychological barriers so a potential low. If it goes below 2.50% then you better start
asking why. Not sure what it means for the fx market although seems the JOY is most sensitive to bond yields.
london red 18:04 GMT May 14, 2014
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actually the more i look at the 10 year chart the more it looks like a false upside break out from the penant (best seen week chart). thats a good half figure to get back in line and more if it moves the other way. a move of 25/30 points higher from current says im wrong, otherwise think we can do 2 figures lower from here.
london red 18:00 GMT May 14, 2014
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for now its still easy to take money out of russia. the worry for some i suppose is that it may not be so easy in the future.
dc CB 17:54 GMT May 14, 2014
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today's RevRepo
$183.187BLN
the FedSpeak about their New Tool -- the RevRepo, is that they are "removing liquidity" from the system, by taking Cash in exchange for Treas Securities...aka Winding Down the effects of QE.
But aren't they taking "cash" in exchange for an Instrument that can be used as collateral...several times over? A dollar is a dollar, but a Treas Security ...makes the balance sheet look better.
Aren't they really pumping in XXX times the Hundred - 2 Hundred Bln each and every day? Just keep the "window" open so it can be rolled over each and every day. Isn't that what sunk Lehman et al....they couldn't get anyone to roll over the overnights ??
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:40 GMT May 14, 2014
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red, moving out of dollars or looking for a place the US can't freeze them?
london red 17:27 GMT May 14, 2014
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re russia, rather under the radar money moving out of russia seeking a home elsewhere. plenty of us dollars in russia looking for a home.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:18 GMT May 14, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Sir Ignore, I presented the key levels and what it would take to ease the risk.
Range today has been 32 pips, yesterday 85 pips (considered a big day in this low vol market), and Monday was just 25 pips.
GBP has had the bigger ranges today along with JPY crosses and of course bond markets.
Livingston nh 16:49 GMT May 14, 2014
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Maybe a Perfect Storm - not by choice many buyers of FI are victims of tier one capital requirements, refugees from the EM washout and collateral seekers - given their 'druthers they would rather be some place else // CBers that "worry" about deflation are using dangerous analogies (japan) and economic models that are not age appropriate
Buyers of 10 yrs are getting less than a 1% return (BEFORE tax) at current inflation levels -- none of the little piggies are afraid until the Big Bad Wolf shows up
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:49 GMT May 14, 2014
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but if Russia was a real concern wouldn't you at least see it in European stocks?
london red 16:41 GMT May 14, 2014
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quite possibly save haven flows, could be home or abroad. home youve got a frothy stock market about to come off its drip and abroad you've got money coming out of russia looking for a safe home. franc no good these days as snb well on top of any gains.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:40 GMT May 14, 2014
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US CPI
A short-lived jump in inflation... US CPI data are also due. Although the core CPI is forecast to have remained unchanged at 1.7% in April, headline inflation is predicted to jump from 1.5% to 2.0% - partly due to a rise in energy prices and base effects associated with the later timing of Easter. While this may temper concerns about US disinflation, it should be noted that headline inflation is likely to drop back again in May.
(Lloyds Bank)
dc CB 16:39 GMT May 14, 2014
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The reason the 5, 10, and 30 are going thru the roof today is because STOX are crumbling and are headed into a full blown BearMarket. It's a Major Flight to Quality. (sarc OFF)
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:38 GMT May 14, 2014
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10-year currently 2.53% and no one seems to have a good explanation.
It smells of deflation even with CPI forecast to be on the high side tomorrow.
london red 16:35 GMT May 14, 2014
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actually looking at chart, we just hit a fib and fell back. id say high seen for today and probably for week assuming the cpi comes in as i expect.
Livingston nh 16:33 GMT May 14, 2014
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agree Red - too many flashing indicators ISM manuf and non-manuf , PPI, and CPI w/ distortions about to wash away // of course, Yellen will watch NAIRU (the Maginot Line of economics) until the process takes hold
london red 16:27 GMT May 14, 2014
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gain in ppi broad based as poses risks to cpi going ahead if not tomorrow, but all the same you'd back a strong print tomorrow. so with that said 10 year must be focused on something else. if stocks ease later on would certainly make usdjpy a good bet into number tomorrow.
GVI Forex Blog 16:15 GMT May 14, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply
ECB's Weidman laid out the Bundesbank's position regarding the ECB's contingency plans for fighting inflation in a major speech. Weidman acknowledged that there was a slight deflation risk at the moment and said he would support ECB action if it was needed, but stopped short of endorsing QE, calling it not the best solution to deal with low inflation
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Equities Pull Back From Record Highs
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 16:08 GMT May 14, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
posted yesterday long euro 1.3720 with stop under 1.3700 for 1.3750 and 1.3820�144 sma..approx
like the possibility, don't like being on life support
gl gt
PAR 16:03 GMT May 14, 2014
Deflation
Reply
More homes than ever are beyond the reach of the middle class
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:57 GMT May 14, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Key intra-day EURUSD level is 1.3730 (one hour double top) in this tight range/consolidating day. Could be some stops above it but upside capped while it holds. Only 1.3740-50 would slow the risk to 1.3670.
GVI Forex john 15:54 GMT May 14, 2014
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Fed Chair Yellen speaks late Thursday. I'm wondering if she will feel obliged to react to market developments since Draghi got the ball rolling. Key U.S. Housing data are due on Friday (Starts and Permits). Yellen last week singled out the recent weakness in the housing sector.
dc CB 15:39 GMT May 14, 2014
U.S. Treasuries and Belgian
Asked about the hiring by a reporter Tuesday, presidential spokesperson Jay Carney referred questions about it to the vice president's office and noted that it did not indicate that Obama was involved or approved of it.
�Hunter Biden and other members of the family are obviously private citizens and where they work is not an endorsement by the president or vice president,� he said.
State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki also responded bluntly to the questions, saying only that Hunter Biden is a private citizen... and when pressed on the fact that Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs - who have been sanctioned and vilified by the US and Europe - were also private citizens she dismissed any concerns...
(vid clip from RT)
White House On Biden's Son Joining Ukraine Gas Giant - No Ethical Issues Here
GVI Forex john 15:36 GMT May 14, 2014
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Markets have moved into a clear "risk-off" posture today. Disappointing U.S. Retail Sales data got the ball rolling, and today, dovish comments from the Bank of England have confirmed concerns about economic growth generally. His comments came on the heels of similar sentiments expressed by the ECB's Draghi and the Fed's Yellen. seen yields in prime fixed income markets are sharply lower across the board. Equities are performing relatively poorly. European equties are ending mixed. Far East markets ended mostly down. U.S. S&P equities are weaker. The peripheral European bond yields are mostly down. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.55%, -7bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).
nw kw 15:29 GMT May 14, 2014
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Forex john do you have world growth chart 3.6 down to .6 forecasted
nw kw 15:19 GMT May 14, 2014
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2.66% in the U.S. 10-yr ///did see forecast for 2.4 from world growth down and struggling/big cap stocks up for dividends and quality// and 4th year for the bull, red flags
Paris ib 14:42 GMT May 14, 2014
U.S. Treasuries and Belgian
Thanks nh. That seems to give only the maturities of the third quarter 2014. Does anyone know how much U.S. debt is rolling over in the next 12 months? Say from May 15th 2014 to May 15th 2015. I'm having real trouble pinning down an official source on this one.
The article is interesting but I'm not concerned about the deficit per se, rather the extent of the total debt and how much is rolling over and the weakness of foreign demand. TIC data gives some information but then it throws up stuff like all the covert buying of U.S. Treasuries in Belgium, which no-one has a satisfactory explanation for, although Paul Craig Roberts asserts that the FED has in fact EXPANDED QE - just moving its place of buying to Belgium. All up lots of skullduggery.
dc CB 14:33 GMT May 14, 2014
Weather
Dai-ichi Life Research Institute economist Toshihiro Nagahama sees a risk that cooler weather could reduce growth by as much as 0.9 percentage point in the third quarter.
�We can�t rule out the potential that the El Nino this summer causes unexpected damage to Japan�s economy,�
Bank of Japan Said to Watch El Nino for Summer Spending
Livingston nh 14:28 GMT May 14, 2014
U.S. Treasuries and Belgian
ib - TBAC minutes -
"Director Pietrangeli turned the Committee�s attention to page 13, which showed that Treasury�s net marketable borrowing need for Q3 FY 2014 was estimated to be negative $78 billion, the largest quarterly paydown in seven years. Pietrangeli then addressed the borrowing needs relative to the amount of money raised with the current issuance calendar. He noted that estimates from the primary dealer community indicated that Treasury was over-financed by approximately $237 billion for FY 2014 and FY 2015. Pietrangeli noted that longer-term financing needs were partly dependent on whether the Federal Reserve reinvested or redeemed the SOMA Treasury portfolio.
Next, Director Pietrangeli reviewed several debt metrics. As of March 31, 2014, the weighted average maturity (WAM) of the portfolio was approximately 66.7 months. He noted that the slight upward tick in WAM in April is due to the maturity of approximately $140 billion of CMBs. By 2023, this number would reach 80 months, if the relative proportions for coupon issuance remained constant to meet projected borrowing needs."
Q3 2014 - see maturity column
LINK
PAR 14:28 GMT May 14, 2014
Weather
Same as long term forex forecasters. Forecasting is difficult , kind of Madame Soleil .
London Chris 14:21 GMT May 14, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
There is a risk that firmer bonds (lower rates) could undercut the dollar although yields are lower everywhere.
GVI Forex john 14:17 GMT May 14, 2014
Weather
Only thing you can expect from long-term weather forecasts is that they are consistently wrong.
jkt abel 14:17 GMT May 14, 2014
buy gbpusd
go gbpusd! stop brought to entry now, cannot return to entry otherwise we go lower and pick up cheaper price if happens
PAR 14:14 GMT May 14, 2014
Weather
Reply
Atlantic Hurricane Season Key Points:
1. AccuWeather.com is predicting a below-normal hurricane season.
2. Tropical development this season may be altered by the onset of El Ni�o in late summer or fall.
3. Areas from the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico up through the East Coast will be most vulnerable for impacts from a tropical system.
dc CB 14:12 GMT May 14, 2014
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What's wrong with this picture?
WTI $102.40
Food up 2.7% in one month
Belgium buying $140Bln in Treas.
Dow hits alltime high 1X days in a row
US to impose "energy" sanctions on Russia
Joe Biden's son joins board of Ukraine energy company, with major interests in "separatist" regions.
GVI Forex john 13:57 GMT May 14, 2014
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We saw 2.66% in the U.S. 10-yr in our initial Risk on table yesterday 2.56% last. These are MAJOR moves for bonds under the circumstances. I guess the trigger was retail sales?
Paris ib 13:47 GMT May 14, 2014
TIC data will be fun.
GVI Forex 13:47 GMT May 14, 2014
US Sanctions
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5/14/2014 9:29:47 AM (RU) Reportedly the US is building the case for targeted sanctions against Russia energy industry; US may be able to apply sanctions without EU support - FT
- US would like to block exports of oil and gas technology only for new projects run by state-controlled companies, but allow exports of oil and gas equipment and services to existing oil and gas fields.
- Goal would be to put the future development of Russia's energy infrastructure and industry in doubt.
- Exempting private sector companies would also help their local rivals such as Novatek, the Russian independent gas group, which would probably be allowed to go ahead with Yamal LNG
- The US is seeking support from European countries for its plan, but that may not be necessary
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex Blog 13:46 GMT May 14, 2014
Reply
May 14, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 15. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- GDP, Final HICP, US- CPI, Empire PMI, Weekly Jobless, TIC Flows, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed, Fed's Yellen.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 15, 2014
GVI Forex john 13:39 GMT May 14, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
May 14, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 15.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- GDP, Final HICP, US- CPI, Empire PMI, Weekly Jobless, TIC
Flows, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed, Fed's Yellen.
- Far East: JP- GDP.
- Europe: EZ- GDP, Final HICP.
- North America: US- CPI, Empire PMI, Weekly Jobless, TIC Flows, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed, Natural Gas, Fed's Yellen.
GVI Forex john 13:37 GMT May 14, 2014
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fwiw July 2015 Fed Funds futures implied rate .410%. That means the market sees only 50-50 odds (actually 55%) for a 25bp rate hike by then.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:35 GMT May 14, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Next key support is 1.6656 so why I said 1.6750 is pivotal
I wonder whether pure technicians still say that news doesn't matter?
Paris ib 13:35 GMT May 14, 2014
U.S. Treasuries and Belgian
"Is the Fed �tapering�? Did the Fed really cut its bond purchases during the three month period November 2013 through January 2014? From November 2013 through January 2014 Belgium with a GDP of $480 billion purchased $141.2 billion of US Treasury bonds....The money came from the US Federal Reserve, and the purchase was laundered through Belgium in order to hide the fact that actual Federal Reserve bond purchases during November 2013 through January 2014 were $112 billion per month.....
and that's all on this topic for now.
The Fed Is The Great Deceiver
jkt abel 13:28 GMT May 14, 2014
buy gbpusd
Reply
bought 1.6757, adding near 1.6720 if seen, stop 1.6678
Paris ib 13:26 GMT May 14, 2014
U.S. Treasuries and Belgian
PAR Michael Lewis just created a distraction IMVHO. High frequency trading is not the problem.
The FED is an obscure organisation. Try finding maturity schedules for U.S. debt for U.S. Treasuries for 2014.
If the FED have upped the printing of money and switched QE to Belgium to hide what they are doing it boggles the mind.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:26 GMT May 14, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
As posted earlier on GVI Forex
Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:01 GMT 05/14/2014 - My Profile
GBPUSD: I show a major trendline break at 1.6784
1.6723 = 50 day mva
1.6750 likely to determine whether focus stays on 1.68
PAR 13:20 GMT May 14, 2014
U.S. Treasuries and Belgian
The miracle source of $ 300 billion created of thin air.
If it was indeed the FED it could explain why yield on US treasuries went from 3.00% to 2.50 at the same momemt Belgian treasuries holding surged to over $ 300 billions .
A little transparancy should be warranted or is this the kind of information that is only shared with Hedge Funds ?
A new subject for Michael Lewis ?
dc CB 13:12 GMT May 14, 2014
March 2014 U.S. PPI
Moments ago the US government reported that producer prices, as part of a newly reindexed PPI series, spiked by 2.1% from a year ago, or a whopping 0.6% surge in April, the biggest monthly jump since January 2010, and up from the 0.5% increase in March.
So what caused this surge in producer prices? Why food costs of course, which in April soared by 2.7%.
Producer Prices Surge Most In Over Four Years As BLS Discovers Food Inflation
Paris ib 13:02 GMT May 14, 2014
U.S. Treasuries and Belgian
"At the moment, Janet Yellen�s worries about finding buyers of government bonds can only be getting worse. For much of last year, foreign central bank purchases of U.S. bonds in aggregate fell. As of October of 2013, they had been negative for three and six months."
If the FED really has increased QE but just moved its buying to Belgium the circumstances of the USA really are dire.
The Hidden Motive Behind Quantitative Easing
dc CB 12:59 GMT May 14, 2014
Central Banks
The Wall Street Journal appears to be saving money by dispensing with journalists and using human drop boxes instead. Thus in the New York markets the �Hilsenramp� signal is already a well-known event which occurs at approximately 3pm on/during/after Fed meeting days, and is posted under the byline of �Jon Hilsenrath�.
In simple packaged form it provides fast money speculators with a message from the B-Dud, otherwise known as William Dudley, President of the New York Fed, on why the Fed will back-up another run at still higher record highs.
So today comes a drop box message with respect to ECB policy posted under the byline of �Brian Blackstone�. Self-evidently, the staff of the Bundesbank is negotiating with Mario Draghi in public.
Rupert Murdoch's Drop Boxes: Where Central Bankers Post Front-Runners On When To "Buy"
Paris ib 12:45 GMT May 14, 2014
U.S. Treasuries and Belgian
In summary: someone.... operating through Belgium.... has added a record $141 billion in Treasurys since December, or the month in which Bernanke announced the start of the Taper, bringing the host's total to an unprecedented $341 billion!
Is the FED actually not tapering and buying secretly through Belgium as Paul Craig Roberts asserts?
If that is anywhere close to the truth then the medium term outlook for the USD is disastrous.
America's Mysterious Third Largest Treasury Holder
London Misha 12:41 GMT May 14, 2014
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - 1st close below Medium MA & tests Apr low and just ahead of recent 50% Fib support 1.3644, all on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - 3rd White Soldier but today reverts back down with possible Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - Still travelling gradually higher within combined AP & SP Tines on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - 4th White Soldier on Daily Chart & 1st close below Medium MA. Golden Cross of Short MA over Long MA!
EURGBP - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart!
AUDUSD - 2nd indecisive Doji on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Open & Close Black Marubozo & 1st close below Lower Tine 2008-09 AP. Possible 2nd leg down of Bear move.
USDZAR - Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart. Rests on recent 61.8% Fib support at 10.2249.
USDBRL - Indecisive Doji on Daily Chart. Still within 'the Band' - support 2.1978-2.2027 to resistance 2.2586-2.2640.
PAR 12:40 GMT May 14, 2014
U.S. Treasuries and Belgian
It is an old story , nobody knows who has been putting $300 billions of treasuries at Belgium based Euroclear. Not the Belgian state with debts over 100% of GDP . Could be Putin , the Italian Maffia,Chinese oligarchs , some Hedge fund or indeed the FED . There is no transparancy at all since it is only $300 billion nobody seems to care .
NY JM 12:40 GMT May 14, 2014
USDJPY Sell to 101.4
USDJPY is lower out of its crosses (e.g. GBPJIOY, EURJPY) but also correlating with a drop in US bond yields. What is odd about the latter is it comes in a market where forecasts are for a strong Q2 and continues to squeeze and baffle the bond bears looking for higher yields.
Paris ib 12:33 GMT May 14, 2014
U.S. Treasuries and Belgian
Reply
Fed Laundering Treasury Bonds in Belgium... according to Roberts. I don't have enough information to comment on this one. But maybe someone else does.
Dr Roberts
GVI Forex john 12:25 GMT May 14, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Large moves since our initial post
US 10-yr last 2.57% vs. 2.60%
DE 10-yr last 1.38% vs. 1.40%
GB 10-yr last 2.63% vs. 2.67%
Large moves mainly after disappointing U.K. employment data and a dovish BOE Inflation report
PAR 12:24 GMT May 14, 2014
Central Banks
Sorry I was wrong it was an earlier financial crisis which led to the creation of the FED
The Federal Reserve System (also known as the Federal Reserve, and informally as the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, largely in response to a series of financial panics, particularly a severe panic in 1907.[2][3][4][5][6][7] Over time, the roles and responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System have expanded, and its structure has evolved.[3][8] Events such as the Great Depression were major factors leading to changes in the system.[9]
Mtl JP 11:34 GMT May 14, 2014
Central Banks
I believe it was Woodrow Wilson who, in 1913, signed the Federal Reserve Act into law and thus officially created the monster known as The Federal Reserve and not the crash of 1929
PAR 11:28 GMT May 14, 2014
Central Banks
Reply
First there was a free market . Then came the crash of 1929 which created the central banks .
Then came 1987 and central banks decided free markets were not good at setting interest rates and decided the technocrats at the Central Banks could do a much better job.
Now Draghi & co go one step further by saying they not only want to control interest rates but also want to impact exchange rates by setting interest rates.
The end of free floating currencies . Back to Bretton Woods ?
Lagarde talking about deflation is because all her hotel, airplane, restaurant , rent and I cannot imagine what other bills and salaries are paid by IMF which is again a taxpayer sponsored entity. She never has to pay for anything herself so has no idea of inflation or deflation in the real world.
london red 10:56 GMT May 14, 2014
May 2014 BOE Inflation Report
eurgbp 10 day 86 20 day 8204. 23.6% fib at 91. poss short setup at 10 day and fib/8200 with stop above 20 day. above there a squeeze to 8230 possible but difficult to see much eurgbp headway until a week before ecb meet.
Belgrade TD 10:28 GMT May 14, 2014
Daily TA trade
Belgrade TD 17:54 GMT May 7, 2014
also short Duke Energy (DUK) ~73,5 ... and on FX side, short AUD/USD ~0,934 for ~0,92 or so ... with stop near 0,938/9 ...
###
I gave aud/usd short a little more space but that's it - fix stop at 0.84 ...
###
for rest, still in with SP500 short avg 1882 and short NAtGas (mini) ~4,75 ... rest short position of energy sector group - mostly closed with some profits as a group ...
###
also open new Long EUR/NZD ~1,586 ... rest of May ... without S/T at the moment ...
SaaR KaL 10:19 GMT May 14, 2014
USDJPY Sell to 101.4
waiting on USDCHF 0.8950 to short it
tgt 0.87 area
SaaR KaL 09:41 GMT May 14, 2014
Buy and Hold for a week
Bullish year for the USD
with USDCHF
Not USDCAD though...less then parity...around 0.97
and not with USDJPY...I see 85 area
I do not see USDJPY Much higher then 1.08 to 110
london red 09:40 GMT May 14, 2014
May 2014 BOE Inflation Report
200 4hr ma capping cable at 86. while remains the case further softness possible. fib at 26 and 50 day ma at 21 make a good area for long. eurgbp offers seen at 8200 worth shorting 85 to figure imo.
GVI Forex john 09:35 GMT May 14, 2014
May 2014 BOE Inflation Report
BOE says slack to be used up less rapidly than previously thought.
Dovish outlook. GBP falls further. BOE is in no rush to tighten policy.
PAR 09:30 GMT May 14, 2014
ECB
Reply
ECB targetting a Lower Euro exchange rare will turn out To Be a complete disaster. It is not It's task.
SaaR KaL 09:22 GMT May 14, 2014
Buy and Hold for a week
Looking at some stocks Long term
It is looking really bad folks for the next few years
aapl i see 350 next year
and 100 in 2020
MSFT 26 next year
HPQ 16
NDX 2500
FTSE 6000
this is gonna be bad 2015
KL KL 09:17 GMT May 14, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!!
he he...getting out short audusd now. .93981 ....maybe better NOT say relentless but quietly doing relentless is good...time to call it a day....sleep...zzzzzzz...leave 1/10 stop at .9407....
lets see if sharks are desperate....LOL
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:06 GMT May 14, 2014
Up Next: BOE Inflation Report
Reply
The focus for today falls firmly on the Bank of England�s Quarterly Inflation Report. With the MPC no longer constrained by its initial forward guidance, today�s report will be scrutinised for clues on the timing of the first rise in the policy rate. Overall, we expect the tone of the report to be broadly neutral, with the BoE likely to strike a balance between robust recovery, against ongoing slack and weak inflation. Given recent developments, we doubt the MPC will alter its GDP growth profile, although it is likely to lower its CPI forecast, given a lower starting point and the recent currency strength. More importantly, we think the focus will be on the BoE�s assessment of the amount of slack, which we expect to be left
Lloyds Bank
london red 08:55 GMT May 14, 2014
March/April 2014 U.K. Employment Data
with bids expected ahead of 1.68 worth covering here on the spike lower with qir due since likely to be a balanced report at worst.
london red 08:47 GMT May 14, 2014
March/April 2014 U.K. Employment Data
as I said John, high bar. overall mixed headline but underlying numbers disappointing. economy heading in right direction but market exp. got ahead of themselves. so good for economy but not so good for frothy sterling. no pressure on wages indicates job quality still poor/still slack in job market. res for cable 40. as long as below then yest low possible.
KL KL 08:40 GMT May 14, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!!
Sell again...BUT not relentless......learnt lesson...on this one today....slowly.... short .9406...above 9417...then relentless engine starts......take it easy... DFM...DYOR...imvho...and gl gt
GVI Forex john 08:38 GMT May 14, 2014
March/April 2014 U.K. Employment Data
U.K. Claimant Count Unemployment falls by a touch less than expected. 6.80% unemployment remains below previous 7.0% Carney target to consider raising rates.
(Note: A declining Claimant Count is stronger and vice-versa.)
london red 08:33 GMT May 14, 2014
March/April 2014 U.K. Employment Data
very poor wages. again prie action before gives indication as to quality of numbers. yest low at risk here. further support at 16770/80 should hold ahead of qir but lets not dress it up, wages very poor here.
GVI Forex john 08:29 GMT May 14, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
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Lots of reed in the fixed income markets as yields broadly have followed U.S. markets lower from yesterday. A mild "risk-off" bias is evident. The peripheral European bond yields are lpwer. European equities are mixed to lower. Far East equities closed mostly down. U.S. S&P futures are down. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.60%, -2bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green)
and risk-off (red).
GVI Forex 08:24 GMT May 14, 2014
Up Next: UK Labour Report
Reply
Ahead of this, the latest labour market release is expected to show the unemployment rate fell further to 6.8% in three months to March, from 6.9% previously. The wider focus of the current monetary policy framework means that the evolution of average earnings will be key. We forecast annual earnings growth (ex-bonus) to accelerate to 1.5% in the three months to March - its fastest pace since October 2012.
Lloyds Bank
london red 08:23 GMT May 14, 2014
cable
uk data coming up jobs -30k wages 2.1% rate 6.8%. some are looking for 6.7% on jobs. fair to say bar is high for this report but key to watch will be wages. this will make or break gbp ahead of qir in an hour. 16895 possible if number good. if not like retest 30/40 then 20.
eurgbp 8110/14 pretty tough level. poor report sees 8160. if broken then yest high targeted.
Tallinn viies 08:12 GMT May 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply
from Reuters:
EXCLUSIVE-ECB readies package of rate cuts and targeted measures
14-May-2014 10:30
By Andreas Framke, Paul Carrel and John O'Donnell
FRANKFURT, May 14 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is preparing a package of policy options for its June meeting, including cuts in all its interest rates and targeted measures aimed at boosting lending to small- and mid-sized firms (SMEs).
Five people familiar with the measures being prepared detailed plans involving a potential rate cut, including the ECB's deposit rate going negative for the first time, along with the targeted measures aimed at boosting lending to SMEs.
The package offers some stimulus for the euro zone economy but falls short of the large-scale effect the ECB could unleash with a major programme of quantitative easing (QE) - money printing to buy assets. Such a QE plan is still some way off.
A June rate cut is "more or less a done deal", said one of the five sources who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.
A second source echoed that sentiment, and added: "This will be the first major central bank to move to a negative deposit rate. That would move the exchange rate."
The two spoke of a cut of 10-20 basis points, probably in all three ECB rates. The main refinancing rate is currently at 0.25 percent.
Both sources expected the move to bring down the currency exchange rate but said the ECB had made no calculation of how much it was likely to fall by, and had no target for the euro.
The ECB declined to comment when asked about the plans.
ECB President Mario Draghi said last week the Governing Council was "comfortable with acting next time" - its June 5 policy meeting - but wanted to see updated economic projections from the bank's staff first. (Full Story)
The ECB's deposit rate already stands at zero and a cut into negative territory would see it essentially charge banks for holding their money overnight - a move that could spur more lending, though analysts are unsure how banks would react.
The ECB is concerned by the euro's EUR= strength and low inflation, which Draghi is worried could get stuck in what he calls a "danger zone" below 1 percent. At 0.7 percent, inflation is running well below the ECB's target of just under 2 percent.
The bank is also concerned about weak lending to SMEs.
Another source was less sure the new staff forecasts would merit policy action but confirmed a package was under discussion should the Council decide to act. Some analysts believe a small cut in the ECB's interest rates would have little impact.
In February, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure told Reuters the idea of cutting the deposit rate into negative territory was "a very possible option", before adding: "But you should not expect too much of it." (Full Story)
BOOSTING LENDING
Should it decide to cut rates, the ECB is looking at also deploying either a targeted long-term loan operation, or LTRO, or else announcing a purchasing programme to buy asset-backed securities (ABS) comprised of bundled SME loans.
The targeted LTRO, which ECB staff have been working on for weeks, would come with conditions attached on achieving a measurable increase of banks' lending to SMEs.
The operation could be even longer than 3-year LTROs the ECB deployed in late 2011 and early 2012 to head off a funding crunch.
"Three years has to be the minimum if we want to have an impact on boosting lending to small business," one of the sources said. "It may be for longer as well."
As an alternative to the targeted LTRO, the ABS purchase plan would see the ECB buy bundled packages of SME loans. This could be announced in June with a view to coming into operation late this year, two sources said.
The idea behind this second option is to build the market in Europe for SME loans bundled as ABS, with a view to making it larger and more liquid to aid the flow of credit to the smaller firms that form the backbone of the euro zone economy.
While developing this purchase plan, the ECB is also lobbying banking regulators in Basel to loosen the capital requirements on banks holding high-grade ABS.
One of the five sources said the ABS purchase idea was on the table but, because it would take time to make it operational, the measure might not be announced in June.
Another said the ABS purchase plan for securitised SME loans was premature and not ripe for decision or announcement in June, adding: "What you should expect is an LTRO that could be even more than 3 years at a fixed rate."
That would lend teeth to the ECB's forward guidance on rates. Asked how conditionality of banks increasing lending to SMEs could be enforced, he said that there could be for example a 4-year LTRO at a fixed rate of 25 basis points with an interest rate penalty if a bank did not meet the conditions.
NO QE
The tools being prepared are consistent with measures Draghi identified in an April 24 speech in which he explained how the ECB would respond to three broad scenarios.
To respond to a de facto tightening of monetary policy caused by market moves like further euro gains, Draghi indicated the ECB could cut rates.
To deal with problems transmitting its policy to all parts of the euro zone, he said the bank could deploy an LTRO targeted at encouraging bank lending or an ABS purchase programme.
Under a third scenario of a deterioration in the medium-term inflation outlook, Draghi said on April 24 the ECB could respond with a "broad-based asset purchase programme" - potentially QE.
However, just a few days later - at a meeting with German lawmakers - Draghi played down the prospect of QE any time soon.
"He mentioned quantitative easing in this context but made clear that we're still some way off QE," a source who attended the meeting with German lawmakers said.
One of the sources who spoke to Reuters for this story also said QE was some way off but another said he could imagine further measures potentially being examined later this year.
"It's not QE yet," the source said of the package being prepared for June. "This is now, and autumn is later. You could think about some more things then if it is well prepared."
Tallinn viies 08:02 GMT May 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply
euro is getting more heavier on charts.
still short from 1,3751. trailing stop now at 1,3777.
take profit moved to 1,3677.
at 1,3580-1,3630 area would like to try long euro again
KL KL 07:27 GMT May 14, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!!
Covering 6/7 of short AUDUSD here...phew .9394.....chased it to ..9408....avg .90429...........scary relentless and heart thumping potential wipe out.......now can leave the rest stops at .9403...and set limit Sell .9420 above....so stress and have to call it a day.....LOL......Sell again later after I evaluate my position sizing.....LOL
DFM...DYOR...imvho and glgt...see you near New York Close......stressssssss relief....
london red 06:56 GMT May 14, 2014
cable
Reply
rebounded from strong support at 20 through frist fib but thus far unable to gain traction above (68). we've got some hourly wicks so may dip a bit here but with upcoming jobs/wages data seen to be strong, cable should see further support at 30/40 ahead of the numbers.
Wages are of particular interest in todays batch of numbers. Further signs of wages growing faster than inflation will be a clear signal of slack reduction in the economy and thus pressure to raise rates soon increases on the boe.
qir comes later today and while one would expect a bullish tone given recent data, the consensus is that they may try to sound as dovish as possible to put the brakes on gbp strength. thats the only risk i can see from the qir for gbp bulls.
SaaR KaL 04:49 GMT May 14, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!!
EURCAD (1.5900) and EURNZD (Mkt)
are very very Bullish
KL KL 04:45 GMT May 14, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!!
Reply
Selling relentlessly now .9395 asking for it....lets see if can cover under .9387 ......
DYOR...DFM...imvho and gl gt
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 04:26 GMT May 14, 2014
Retaliation rate by the Russian increased
agree fs�long euro here at 3720 with below 3700 stop, not much needed to invalidate for run to 3750 area.1st tp and chance for 1.3830 area, 144 sma 1 hr..
fwiw..decent r/r..with what we have now...
kl fs 03:43 GMT May 14, 2014
buy euro
Reply
buy euro as well 1.3716, stop 1.3673, target open
kl fs 03:42 GMT May 14, 2014
buy cable, sell usd
adding more if getting a bit lower preferably in 1.6810-20 area
kl fs 03:41 GMT May 14, 2014
buy cable, sell usd
Reply
UK data later
bought 1.6853, stop under 1.6780 will do, target open
kl fs 03:40 GMT May 14, 2014
buy audusd
well done, target reached, still keeping 1/4 for 0.9420 later on
kl fs 09:09 GMT May 13, 2014
buy audusd: Reply
bought intraday play 0.9341, stop 0.9317, target 0.9380
jkt abel 03:35 GMT May 14, 2014
buy euro
Reply
start buying euro here in this buying zone 1.3680-1.3720 for the rest of this week, stop below 1.3650 will do this week, as for target back to 1.3820 and then all the way to 1.40
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:17 GMT May 14, 2014
AceTrader May 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 May 2014 01:46GMT
USD/JPY - 102.19
Although the greenback extended gain to 102.36 in Europe yesterday on renewed risk aversion due to the rally in Nikkei-225 index, U.S. dollar subsequently retreated to 102.06 in NY after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data b4 recovering briefly to 102.33 in NY afternoon. Trading is relatively thin in Asia as Japanese equities moved narrowly inside 14350-14420 range. Some offers are tipped at 102.25-30 with stops seen abv 102.36 n 102.40/45. On the downside, mixture of bids n stops is located at 102.00.
On the data front, Japan's domestic CGPI rose by 2.8% m/m n 4.1% y/y in April versus economists' forecast of 2.8% m/m n 4.0% y/y and well abv previous readings of 0.0% n 1.7% in March, however, the rises are being attributed to the sales tax hike back on April 1. U.S. dollar showed muted reaction after the release of the data.
A piece of news fm Bloomberg worth mentioning, there's about a 50-50 percent chance the BOJ will achieve its 2 percent goal for consumer-price increases, which could push the 10-year yield above 3 percent, said Kazuo Ueda, who served as a BOJ policy maker from 1998 to 2005, and was also senior adviser to the Government Pension Investment Fund.
USA ZEUS 01:42 GMT May 14, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top
USA ZEUS 16:34 GMT March 19, 2014
There is no question that chart posted in this thread would be and IS the guide going forward.
In the meanwhile, an easy counter-trend swing scalp north can be taken in EUR/USD @ 1.3704
Cheers!
dc CB 00:40 GMT May 14, 2014
STOX
williambanzi7
many more chart points
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