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Forex Forum Archive for 05/15/2014

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GVI Forex Blog 23:59 GMT May 15, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Euro bounces off 2-1/2 month lows vs USD, still on track for weekly fall

* Drop in benchmark U.S. yields seen undermining dollar

* No major data out of Asia on Friday

FOREX-Euro off lows as fall in U.S. yields hurt dollar

GVI Forex 23:06 GMT May 15, 2014
Yellen Upcoming

FED: Fed Chair Yellen doesn't address mon policy, or current economic forecasts,...

MNI

dc CB 23:03 GMT May 15, 2014
Yellen Upcoming



more from williambanzai7

spot on hoot with the vid

annie

dc CB 22:39 GMT May 15, 2014
Yellen Upcoming



whot me worry?

GVI Forex john 22:13 GMT May 15, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


May 15, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 16. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output, US- Housing Starts/Permits, University of Michigan Survey.

  • Far East: JP- Industrial Output.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: US- Housing Starts/Permits, University of Michigan Survey, Commitment of Traders Report.


GVI Forex john 22:12 GMT May 15, 2014
Yellen Upcoming

Yellen No direct comments on policy. Says Fed. must do its part to to promote growth.

GVI Forex john 21:39 GMT May 15, 2014
Yellen Upcoming
Reply   
May 15 Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Small Businesses and the Economy
National Small Business Week 2014, Washington, D.C.
6:10 p.m. ET

dc CB 21:30 GMT May 15, 2014
Time to be nervous over stocks?

calls on the S&P500, which at March 31, 2014 represented a notional equivalent of a whopping $1.1 billion, or 6 million shares! And perhaps even more notable: Tepper's 6th largest position at the end of Q1, after the SPY Call, a cash position in SPY in second place, followed by $815 million in QQQs, and $492 million in Google and $480 million in Citi, is a new position in Nasdaq (QQQ) calls, amounting to a just as whopping $438 million share notional.

To be sure, we don't know if Tepper still has any of these two massive call position on his books right now, nor do we know how much capital at risk they involve, but judging by the performance of the Nasdaq alone, the QQQ calls are hardly doing all that great

Is This Why David Tepper Is "Very Nervous"

GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Reply   

FRIDAY:

United States: Housing Starts And Permits- key focus for the markets after Fed Chair Yellen put the spotlight on these data. With the weather improving better data are priced in.

University of Michigan Sentiment- Preliminary data for May are due. Data recently have been on an improving path. Recently the sentiment data of all stripes have not been reliable predictors of the hard data.

Commitment of Traders Report- Data as of Tuesday's close.

Focus on Friday will be on how traders in equities will want to be positioned into the weekend. For once the focus might not be on Ukraine?

dc CB 20:14 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



Mrs O

dc CB 20:12 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



stick save

GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT May 15, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
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UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:43 GMT May 15, 2014
No Plan B. Plan Z
Reply   
" asking questions like: "If the Euro breaks down, and if a country leaves the Euro, it's not like a sliding door. It's a very important thing. It's a project in the European Union. That's why you have a very hard time asking people like me "what would happened if." No Plan B."

Thanks to the FT's Peter Spiegel we now know that just over a year ago, in order to preserve the myth that Europe's power echelons are so "confident" with the Eurozone staying together they did not even consider a break up as a potential outcome, Draghi explicitly and on the record lied.

"Unbeknown to almost the entire Greek political establishment, a small group of EU and International Monetary Fund officials had been working clandestinely for months preparing for a collapse of Greece’s banks. Their secret blueprint, known as “Plan Z”, was a detailed script of how to reconstruct Greece’s economic and financial infrastructure if it were to leave the euro.

When The Head Of The European Central Bank Lies To Zero Hedge On The Record: Presenting Europe's "Plan Z"

GVI Forex Blog 19:38 GMT May 15, 2014
Mixed U.S. Data. EZ1Q14 GDP Misses. Final April HICP Steady
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Industrial Output, US- Housing Starts/Permits, University of Michigan Survey

A major focus was a decline in bond yields that came along with weakness in shares. A special concern was a sudden spike higher in peripheral bond yields in Europe as investors worried that a price bubble in those markets fueled by a race for yields was bursting.

Mixed U.S. Data. EZ1Q14 GDP Misses. Final April HICP Steady

GVI Forex john 19:34 GMT May 15, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


SaaR KaL 18:45 GMT May 15, 2014
USDJPY

If EURUSD no go above 1.3740
could be another drop into 1.3660 next day
this is hard guys

nw kw 18:37 GMT May 15, 2014
us data

bloom.2017 for bond rate hike so what will gbp do

london red 18:11 GMT May 15, 2014
USDJPY

low now looks safe. question is where tomorrow high will be. 24 hour fib 50% at 70, below there keeps pressure on. but we have to trade partly within today range and this pair is a topside stop runner even during bear times and a brief test above 200 hour cant be ruled out, which makes for hampered stop placing. easiest thing to do is to go long with stop under low and worry about the high later on running a tight trail once 38.2 at 62 taken.

dc CB 17:36 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Today's RevRepo
$192.416bln

SaaR KaL 17:35 GMT May 15, 2014
USDJPY

USDCHF selling more on spikes
0.8920
0.8930
should head to 0.87 area next week

SaaR KaL 17:20 GMT May 15, 2014
USDJPY

Thank you Jay

AUDUSD seems Like a buy below .9350 for another day
maybe ..0.9280 is min
for .9450 then the dive into 0.9200 next week

dc CB 17:00 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



try this

dc CB 16:58 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

the one to watch. the ETF of REITS. owned by Pension Funds for the Yield.

look whot happened during the Taper Tantrum. imho the Numero Uno on the Fed's Trading Desk WATCH List

IYR by the week

Livingston nh 16:46 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

John - peripheral bonds were initial beneficiaries of last year taper flow out of EM and then EU financial institutions were buyers of "safe" (tier 1) securities but beginning of April when Greece came back to market things got crazy -- bells ringing // ECB should have a full plate next month as its banks gag on the peripheral debt -- Greece should lead the way AGAIN // EUR neg especially if Draghi tries a stall like Ben pulled last september

dc CB 16:37 GMT May 15, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)

this is OPEX week. also the last OPEX week before the official beginning of Summer. Playing for that $10K/month...or better dig per week, rental on the LI south shore?

Stox have made a bottom?

london red 16:22 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

i think bonds would need to come off a long long way for ecb to even entertain qe. the whole point of it is to reduce rates. anyway the european citizens arent as sensitive to bonds rates as americans. negative rates are another matter. but you are working on the assumption that the banks lend the money and not find somewhere else to store it.
yen looks like a friday job, squeezing ever so slightly higher. looks like they are safe for today.

GVI Forex john 16:17 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Note: below Is the peripheral European bond market blowing up?
Is that bearish EURUSD?
Does this imply anything for the June ECB policy decision?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:09 GMT May 15, 2014
USDJPY

Came within a pip of a key support at 101.30, 101.50 will set its tone while within 101-102

nw kw 16:07 GMT May 15, 2014
USDJPY

Nikkei monthly ? can it hold 14/hkd/jpy almost fell into a pit

dc CB 16:06 GMT May 15, 2014
today's Homer Simpson D'OH Award

"
I believe there i legislation afoot to permit student borrowers to refinance existing debt at current lower interest rates. That could help some."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
that is a salve on the Wound. When they "passed" the new new new bankrupcy Legislation ...back beyond the memory of all those ADDers...it Removed these loans from normal credit bnkrpcy protection. A Corp and a person can remove Debts and Start Over ...not loans to scholars...aka You needs dat degree to gets da good job Rubes

The Rape the Children is now being rethought. good luck with that.

GVI Forex john 16:05 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Markets remain in a clear "risk-off" posture. Falling equities have been providing a bid (falling yields) to prime fixed income markets/. On the other hand, some are saying the price bubble (low interest rates) in the European periphery appears to be deflating. Note below how their yields have shot higher. This could also be fueling demand for the "safer" bonds.

Equities are performing relatively poorly. European share are ending mostly weak. Earlier, Far East markets ended mostly down. U.S. equities are much weaker. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.48%, -7bp.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).


dc CB 15:56 GMT May 15, 2014
The Markets are Not Rigged (Mary Jo White under oath)

it now appears that the desperate and flailing bank also has monkey in charge of trading because as Bloomberg reports it was also responsible for the freakout that hit a vast number of stocks at 3:49:00 pm on Tuesday and which we profiled in "Is There Anything Wrong With These Charts?"

THE MISTAKE Whiipsawed companies such as AOL, Caterpillar, Nabors Industries Ltd. and Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. According to Winnetka, Illinois-based Nanex LLC, which tracks trading disruptions, at least 28 stocks were affected, with AOL moving the most: a decline of 11 percent. Within a second, prices largely returned to where they’d been before the error.

Barclays "Glitch" Caused Tuesday's Market Freakout

NY JM 15:54 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

3rd day in a row EURUSD ran into resistance (rather than stops) at 1.3130-33

SaaR KaL 15:51 GMT May 15, 2014
USDJPY

USDCAD Longing with dips into next week
1.0776 Might be the min

tgt 1.1079

SaaR KaL 15:47 GMT May 15, 2014
USDJPY
Reply   
Maybe USDJPY a Buy around 100.4

HK [email protected] 15:43 GMT May 15, 2014
Russia's Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev says:
Reply   


Russia cannot completely avoid using the US dollar as an accounting currency with partner countries, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev told the television channel Russia Today on Thursday.

“There are positions where we cannot completely avoid using the dollar, but there are also those where we should reduce its use and replace by the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Vietnamese dong, and so on,” Ulyukayev said. “This is quite normal between countries having full-fledged trade and investment relations.”

london red 15:21 GMT May 15, 2014
today's Homer Simpson D'OH Award

debt id debt, whether its at 2% or 5%. best way is to inflate it away. but nobody seems keen on higher inflation. after all why should average joe start doing a little better.

london red 15:18 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

200 day 101.18 if under 30. next support 100.62 fib

GVI Forex john 15:18 GMT May 15, 2014
today's Homer Simpson D'OH Award

I believe there i legislation afoot to permit student borrowers to refinance existing debt at current lower interest rates. That could help some.

london red 15:16 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

was planning to sell euro at first fib 35 but it appears usd going down with stocks so wont be standing in its way for now as if yen stops are run euro will pop higher still

London Chris 15:16 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

There goes usdjpy

BOS = Beware of Stops

HK Q 15:11 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

is anyone long or short usd?

dc CB 15:08 GMT May 15, 2014
today's Homer Simpson D'OH Award
Reply   
there’s a growing body of evidence that rising levels of student loan debt are restraining the ability of young adults to enter the “grown-up” economy — to buy a car and to buy a home and start filling it with big stuff.

How Student Debt May Be Stunting the Economy

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:59 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Reality check:

To put price action in perspective, EURUSD is currently -37 pips on the week.

Not exactly a roaring market despite the news and the chop.

london red 14:57 GMT May 15, 2014
Time to be nervous over stocks?

s&p bounces at 55 day ma at 1867. anything below 60 suggests deeper correction. and yen stop surely done. getting very stale.

GVI Forex 14:55 GMT May 15, 2014
Time to be nervous over stocks?
Reply   
David Tepper on the market: 'I think it's nervous time'

Time to be nervous over stocks?

london red 14:48 GMT May 15, 2014
euro cable
Reply   
a welcome rebound and a few stops run in euro and cable now. possibly fair game now but think if they run a bit further will sell 13730/5 and 16830.

Paris ib 14:33 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

nh - it's a ponzi scheme. Should it become clear that there are not enough buyers out there for U.S. Treasuries... then the U.S. goes from potentially bankrupt to actually bankrupt very quickly. The incentives to game the system are enormous. Rollover risk is HUGE. How much does the U.S. have to auction over the next 12 months? Does anyone actually know? On my calculations something like 4 trillion. This mysterious Belgian buying when other countries (like China, Russia, Japan) are selling consistent chunks is very suspicious. At any rate till we know what's behind it there is just too much room for concern.

GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT May 15, 2014
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
Reply   



ALERT
+105 vs. +100 exp vs. +74 prev.

EIA Press Release




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HK [email protected] 14:31 GMT May 15, 2014
Slovak PM: Russia says gas to Europe will stop if Kiev does not pay
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May 15 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin has informed multiple European states that Moscow will not supply gas to Europe as of June 1 if Ukraine does not pay its bills, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Thursday.

"Today, multiple member states including Slovakia were informed by President Putin that as of June 1, if Ukraine does not pay for supplied gas, it will not be supplied to the European territory," Fico said.

"It is a serious threat to the energy security of Slovakia."

Earlier on Thursday, Putin said Russian gas exporter Gazprom had been forced to demand Ukraine pay in advance for gas as of June after its debt for gas already delivered reached $3.5 billion.

Livingston nh 14:30 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Watch the VIX -- complacency has been rampant -- RUT is below Feb downdraft

GVI Forex john 14:29 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

With the 10-yr at 3.00%, my personal forecast (end 2013) for the year-end value of 2014 was for 3.40-50%. That was in light of expectations for the monthly Fed Asset purchases to fall from a USD1.0 tln annual rate to zero by year-end. The last thing I would have expected with Fed Asset purchases to have been cut in half would have been for the yield on the 10-yr to have fallen below 2.50%.

Granted the economy is not booming, but the data at worst have been mixed. Hard to figure?

HK Kevin 14:28 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

HK RF, the history of 1979 is likely to repeat itself. China won't enter into war with Jpan, but Vietnam is very likely.

Livingston nh 14:26 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

I'm sure the Fed folks are flattered by the thought that they could run a "conspiracy" thru Belgium (home of Brussels eurocrats) - percentage wise Luxembourg also bought a goodly amount -- this TIC stat had the Caribs as huge buyer some years ago and nobody suggested the Fed // how about EU banks? maybe it's the ECB --- trying to drive the euro down???

c'mon folks - -

GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr October 2013 lows 2.47% last 2.477%
S&P -19.5 DJIA -142

dc CB 14:16 GMT May 15, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index

Remember Yellen is focused on weak housing

do you really think that Yellen is calling the shots?
She's just a face on the box of oatmeal. Gammy Quaker

HK [email protected] 14:13 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows



Hong Kong Ahe 14:05

The US navy, has nothing to do with the Viet-China conflict, so their presence in S.China sea is only for drumming up tension.

The Chinese are building airstrips and reclaiming lands, in the Spratlys, but again, it is not a recognized Philippine territory.

A full war between Vietnam and China, can play a serious Mkt. factor especially in the Far East Mkts.

GVI Forex john 14:10 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.482%

London Chris 14:08 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Corrections building?

Odds for usdjpy testing 100?

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT May 15, 2014
May 2014 NAHB Index

The NAHB (industry group) is always likely to try to put a positive spin on the housing buainess.

GVI Forex john 14:05 GMT May 15, 2014
May 2014 NAHB Index

'May 15, 2014 - Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in May fell one point to 45 from a downwardly revised April reading of 46 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“After four months in which the HMI has shown little signs of fluctuation, it is clear that builder sentiment is becoming more in line with the market reality of a continuing but modest recovery,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and developer from Wilmington, Del. “However, builders expressed some optimism that sales will pick up in the coming months.”

“Builders are waiting for consumers to feel more secure about their financial situation,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Once job growth becomes more consistent, consumers will return to the market in larger numbers and that will boost builder confidence.”

Builder Confidence Remains in Holding Pattern

Hong Kong Ahe 14:05 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

I didn't see any financial news reporting the turmoil in Vietnam today. But our evening news saying US navy is sailing to South Sea of China. So tomorrow or these few days watch out the reaction of China.

GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT May 15, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index

So Philly Fed and Empire PMI regional indices up strongly.

NAHB (home builders) weaker than expected. Remember Yellen is focused on weak housing

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT May 15, 2014
May 2014 NAHB Index
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
45 vs. 49 exp. vs. 47 (r 46) prev.


RELEASE: NAHB Index


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Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT May 15, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
+15.4 vs. +13.6 exp. vs. +16.6 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex 13:56 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Stocks down, 10-year 2.50%, bund yields down sharply as well

NY JM 13:52 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

I would be surprised if it is the Fed.

Others looking for protection from the US (e.g. US threatens more sanctions if Russia upsets the Ukraine elections) seems more logical.

Just IMHO

Paris ib 13:46 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

Taken together with the U.S. failure to return Germany's Gold (supposedly held in custody by the NY FED).... the obscure workings of the FED need to be clarified just a little.

london red 13:45 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

cant see why china would want to hide behind belgium, particularly since they already own a large portion of the market. id go with the fed manipulating the market to keep a lid on rates to give the economy every chance. inflation is coming, we all know it, as we all know not everyone can leave the party at the same time.

Paris ib 13:43 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

Paul Craig Roberts claims Belgian is really the FED expanding its QE programme even as it claims to be TAPERING.

dc CB 13:42 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

I'm sure Murderock's Wall Street Journal will put its Crack financial "journalist" on this.
Hercule Poirot will get to the bottom of it.

GVI Forex john 13:40 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

Rick Santelli claims "Belgium" is really China. No idea if this is true.

dc CB 13:36 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

So to summarize, of the total $60 billion increase in foreign Treasury holdings, which rose from $5.89 trillion to $5.95 trillion, "Belgium" accounted for two thirds, most likely doing the purchases under the guise of a "private", unofficial account!

Russia Dumps 20% Of Its Treasury Holdings As Mystery "Belgium" Buyer Adds Another Whopping $40 Billion

Paris ib 13:34 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

And the Belgians just keep adding. When the Russian sell the Belgians buy. When the Japanese sell the Belgians buy. When the Chinese sell the Belgians buy. So there is a back stop to the U.S. Treasury market even with QE winding down.

The Belgians and Covert QE

GVI Forex 13:26 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

and 2.555% after CPI

GVI Forex john 13:25 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.512% was 2.54% in our opening post 4 hours ago.

Paris ib 13:24 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

After including adjustments, such as estimates of unrecorded principal payments to foreigners on U.S. asset-backed securities, overall net foreign sales of long-term securities are estimated to have been $5.3 billion in March.

TIC

London 13:19 GMT May 15, 2014
Buy signals
Reply   
Buy OTHER
Entry: Market Target: 2.0976 Stop: 2.0230

USD/TRY moved higher and is currently trying to emerge above the 2.0800 (R1) bar. The rate is trading above the prior downtrend line, but below the 2.0850 (R2) resistance. In my view, a clear move above that bar would bring the rate above both the moving averages and could trigger extensions towards the hurdle of 2.0976 (R3), near the 38.2% retracement level of the 23rd Apr. – 14th May short-term downtrend. In the bigger picture, the rebound on the 14th of May occurred near the 50% retracement level of the February 2013 –January 2014 advance, favoring a forthcoming leg to the upside.


Posted with permission of global-view.com

Autotrade forex signals

GVI Forex john 13:18 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

Weaker than expected Industrial Production data. Mixed U.S. data so far today.

GVI Forex john 13:15 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Reply   



ALERT
Ind Production: -0.6% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +0.90% ) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 78.60% vs. 79.10% exp. vs. 79.20% (r 79.30% ) prev


RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



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Direct links to primary data sources

Paris ib 13:15 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

I note that the "Belgians" upped their holdings by 40 billion. Japan sold 10 billion and China did nothing.

The expansion in Covert QE continues.

Dr Roberts

Hong Kong Ahe 13:12 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

Expected as my post in Political forum

Paris ib 13:06 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

Why am I seeing an outflow of 126 billion?

TIC

london red 13:05 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows

i wonder if the fed has opened a secondary branch in belgium as they seem very keen on us assets over there

GVI Forex john 13:01 GMT May 15, 2014
March 2014 U.S. TIC flows
Reply   



ALERT
Long-Term Flows USDb: 4.0 vs. n/a exp. vs. 85.7 (r 90.3) prev.


RELEASE: U.S. TIC Data



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Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:51 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Suppose inflation starts to heat up. Then what?

london red 12:46 GMT May 15, 2014
us data
Reply   
before rounding core 0.23%. data overall strong. stocks shouldnt like it when dust settles. so s&p 1880 test. so usdjpy should give up those gains as s&p fades. res at 20 and 40.
euro and cable ought to suffer a bit more, but scraping barrel here a bit as doesnt pain to sell below daily lower bollis too often. specs are now probably short so easier stops will be to topside but a fair bit of work to do to change trend to up again.
john, your 10 year should continue lower after a failed retest of fib touched yest.

GVI Forex john 12:46 GMT May 15, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index



U.S. April CPI rising...

GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT May 15, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Weekly jobless claims decline sharply.




Click on chart for ten-year history

Tallinn viies 12:42 GMT May 15, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
covered euro short at 1,3651. 100 pips at home.
plan to go long near 1,3625-30.
no change in downtrend before 1,3735 is taken out.

GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT May 15, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
+297K vs. 320K exp. vs. 319K (r 321 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.667 vs. 2.700 exp. vs. 2.685 (r 2.676 ) prev.
Press Release



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GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT May 15, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
Reply   



ALERT
Headline:
m/m: +0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. v +0.20% pre
y/y:+2.00% vs. +2.00% exp. v +1.50% pre
Core:
m/m: +0.20% vs. +0.10% exp. v +0.20% pre
y/y: +1.80% vs. +1.70% exp. v +1.70% pre


RELEASE: Consumer Price Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT May 15, 2014
U.S. May 2104 Empire PMI
Reply   



ALERT
+19.01 vs. +6.0 exp. vs. +1.29 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:27 GMT May 15, 2014
Put This on Your Trading Checklist

As I posted yesterday

A short-lived jump in inflation... US CPI data are also due. Although the core CPI is forecast to have remained unchanged at 1.7% in April, headline inflation is predicted to jump from 1.5% to 2.0% - partly due to a rise in energy prices and base effects associated with the later timing of Easter. While this may temper concerns about US disinflation, it should be noted that headline inflation is likely to drop back again in May.

(Lloyds Bank)

london red 12:25 GMT May 15, 2014
Put This on Your Trading Checklist

euro. we get a meaningful bounce at 13590-13620 or 13500.
cpi. consensus tame, but you wonder if expected a little higher. all the same usd should bounce on a strong number, possibly usdjpy bounces most but probably quickly gives up gains. euro is short term oversold as is cable (both lower bollis) so possibly worth longs on another spike lower if cpi allows. poor cpi like to see cable capped by 16810 and euro 13735. specs are quite probably now short but plenty of sellers expected on any bounce.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:22 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

1.3644 = 50% of 1.3294 (Nov 7, 2013 low) - 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high)

1.3561 = 61.8%

London Misha 12:19 GMT May 15, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - 2nd close below Medium MA & breaks Apr low & just ahead of recent 50% Fib support 1.3644, all on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Bearish Engulfing pattern & again tests Jun13-to-date Uptrend on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - 2nd Black Crow on Daily Chart but still travelling gradually higher within combined AP & SP Tines.
USDCHF - 2nd close over Medium MA & today moves over key 50% Fib @ 0.8926 plus a Golden Cross of Short MA over Long MA!
EURGBP - Now a Key Reversal Up after previous Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart. Possible signs of indecision?
AUDUSD - Moves up to test Oct13-to-date Downtrend& Upper Tine of recent SP on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Small follow on to Open & Close Long Black Marubozo. 2nd close below Lower Tine of 2008-2009 AP. Possible Indecisive Spinning Top on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Two Black Crows and market still rests upon recent 61.8% Fib support (10.2249) on Daily Chart.
USDBRL - Key reversal Down on Daily Chart & tests lower support on 'the Band' - support 2.1978-2.2027 to resistance 2.2586-2.2640.




GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:39 GMT May 15, 2014
Put This on Your Trading Checklist
Reply   
If you haven't read my article, I suggest doing so as it would have given you a keen insight into why you would not have been long EURUSD yesterday or overnight in Asia even though it appeared to have a bid.

Put This on Your Trading Checklist

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:15 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

As posted on GVIForex


Video Market Update

1.3625-50 is a pivotal area

jkt abel 11:15 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

euro long stopped out, try again 1.3653, adding 1.3590-1.3610, stop all under 1.3550, still seeing US summer range 1.35-1.40 IMHO

GVI Forex john 11:04 GMT May 15, 2014
Japan 1Q14 GDP
Reply   







Earlier NEWS ALERT
qq: +1.50% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 10:52 GMT May 15, 2014
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yep..long 3720 stopped at 3698…

no ideas atm, but ok with sidelined..

gl all

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:38 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

EURUSD broke its key 1.3670 low but CHF has been ther biggest loser todasy

GVI Forex Blog 10:17 GMT May 15, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
ECB speak continued to hint that the Council was prepared to act in June if necessary. The ECB Monthly Report contained its Professional Forecaster Survey (which comes ahead of the it's highly anticipated staff projections). The SPF survey cut its inflation forecast throughout the 2014 thru 2016 period

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB survey trims inflation forecasts; German GDP accelerates

SaaR KaL 10:16 GMT May 15, 2014
Monthly, Weekly, Daily

Cuts are due cause they think they are Econ Doc
They are not in control in anything

"They are not"

SaaR KaL 10:14 GMT May 15, 2014
Monthly, Weekly, Daily

SHorts USDCHF
day trades ...till .9000

UK BT 09:57 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

EURUSD drops through key support and I have not seen any sell or bet the farm calls. There were mainly buys here yesterday. Is anybody short? We finally have a trend.

GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT May 15, 2014
Monthly, Weekly, Daily

If The ECB was leaning in the direction of policy ease in June, I don't see anything in the data today that should change that bias.

GVI Forex Blog 09:33 GMT May 15, 2014
EZ1Q14 GDP Miss. Final April HICP Unchanged. Japan GDP Beats Estimates
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- CPI, Empire PMI, Weekly Jobless, TIC Flows, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed, Fed's Yellen.

Eurozone 1Q14 GDP saw the Q/Q data miss estimates and fall short of the 4Q13 data. This was a disappointment..

EZ1Q14 GDP Miss. Final April HICP Unchanged. Japan GDP Beats Estimates

London Chris 09:30 GMT May 15, 2014
Monthly, Weekly, Daily

Kal the question is not why not going up but why are you looking to buy euro when ECB is talking it down by signaling rate cuts

GVI Forex john 09:20 GMT May 15, 2014
April 2014 Final EZ HICP (CPI)



EZ Final HICP. Headline HICP unchanged. Core CPI unrevised. ECB focuses mainly on headline CPI. Sone were looking for the data to be revised lower.

GVI Forex john 09:17 GMT May 15, 2014
Eurozone GDP 1Q14



EZ 1Q14 GDP. Q/Q data misses estimates.


PAR 09:06 GMT May 15, 2014
Eurozone GDP 1Q14

It 's the weather , winter has been too warm in Europe and too cold in America .

GVI Forex john 09:06 GMT May 15, 2014
Eurozone GDP 1Q14

Composite Eurozone GDP misses estimates.

GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT May 15, 2014
Eurozone GDP 1Q14
Reply   




ALERT
qq: +0.20% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
yy: +0.90% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.

Eurozone GDP Data


TTN: Live News Special Offer




Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT May 15, 2014
April 2014 Final EZ HICP (CPI)

CPI unrevised

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT May 15, 2014
April 2014 Final EZ HICP (CPI)
Reply   




ALERT
mm: +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
yy:+0.70% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.

HICP core
yy: +1.0% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

SaaR KaL 08:45 GMT May 15, 2014
Monthly, Weekly, Daily
Reply   
EURUSD
M_W_D High M_W_D Low
1.4101 1.3613 --> Monthly
1.3854 1.3674 ---> Weekly
1.3746 1.3689

weighted by Longer term
1.4046 1.3626

why not going up?...No idea

GVI Forex john 08:44 GMT May 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   
Plenty of red again in the fixed income markets early in Europe as yields continue to fall on concerns tha economic activity hs started to level out. A clear "risk-off" bias is evident. The peripheral European bond yields are lower. European equities are mixed to lower. Far East equities closed mixed. U.S. S&P futures are lower. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.54%, -1bp. It was at 2.60% at this hour yesterday.

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).

GVI Forex 08:44 GMT May 15, 2014
Up Next: EZ Data
Reply   
The focus will be on the euro area this morning with preliminary estimates of Q1 GDP and the final estimate of April CPI inflation due. Euro area real GDP is widely expected to have risen for the fourth successive quarter. We forecast a gain of 0.3%, up from 0.2% in Q4 2013, but the risk is of a stronger outturn. Ahead of this release, German and French GDP will provide the markets with a better guide. However, these figures will draw additional interest due to the likely stark divergence in performance between the largest two euro area countries. We forecast German GDP growth at a robust 0.7%, with French GDP close to unchanged. The challenging outlook facing France may help explain the strong vocal political desire for a weaker euro. Euro area April inflation is forecast to be confirmed at 0.7%, but any change would fan further speculation of likely ECB action.

Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook

london red 07:32 GMT May 15, 2014
buy gbpusd

[email protected], 50 [email protected] 21, lower 21 [email protected], 10 week [email protected] later to be used for stop. below there 16688 and 16605.

GVI Forex Blog 07:24 GMT May 15, 2014 Reply   
- (JP) JAPAN Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 1.5% V 1.0%E; GDP NOMINAL Q/Q: 1.2% V 1.0%E; GDP ANNUALIZED GDP Q/Q: 5.9% (3-year high) V 4.2%E - (JP) JAPAN MAR TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: 2.4% V 2.2%E - (AU) A

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan Q1 GDP much stronger than expected on consumption surge ahead of tax hike - Source TradeTheNews.com

kl shawn 06:29 GMT May 15, 2014
buy gbpusd
Reply   
try small long here 1.6762, adding some more if seen lower till 1.672x, stop below 1.6660

CT LV 05:09 GMT May 15, 2014
Thank you for an excellent forum

GVI Forex Blog 03:29 GMT May 15, 2014 Reply   
Almost all Equity indices went into a pause mode yesterday with very narrow price

Morning Briefing : 15-May-2014 -0329 GMT

makassar alimin 02:55 GMT May 15, 2014
Forex News

Mtl JP, if this is indeed a race to the bottom of currencies, maybe Carney just realised that sterling started very late, need a turbo boost to catch up with the rest?

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:51 GMT May 15, 2014
AceTrader May 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

15 May 2014 00:33 GMT

USD/JPY - 101.78
Japan EconMin Amari says 'exports weaker than expected reflecting emerging market economies, uncertainty over Chinese growth.' and "Japan's economy making steady progress towards beating deflation; consumption showing some weak moves after sales tax hike but moves are temporary and within expectations; hopes private consumption will pick up gradually in line with improvement in job conditions; expects firm domestic demand-led recovery to continue in the current fiscal year."

U.S. dollar fell to 101.67 against the Japanese yen after Amari's comments.

Mtl JP 01:35 GMT May 15, 2014
Forex News

Sterling in spotlight after slumping overnight coz Mark "rock star" Carney's BoE is suddenly not as sure of things going as well as he thought earlier.

Notice the subtle moves by many CBs into trying to devalue their ccies on the premise that enhancing exports is their salvation to their economic morass

GVI Forex Blog 00:44 GMT May 15, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Euro wallows near 6-week lows versus dollar

* Sterling in spotlight after slumping overnight

FOREX -Euro pressured as yields fall on ECB easing expectations

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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