nw kw 21:27 GMT May 16, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
It�s worth noting that commercial traders� 30 FFR long positions are near an all-time high. Therefore, up side could be limited.
For now, the Fed Funds Rate confirms what we foresaw already last week: Higher prices.
https://ispyetf.com/view_article.php?slug=Fed_Fund_Rate_Suggests_S%26P_500_Rally&ID=448
uk rg 21:10 GMT May 16, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Friday close
Failed to go below 1.3690
Up from here probably limited not many pips
Range getting very narrow
INVHO
Cambridge Joe 20:05 GMT May 16, 2014
Snp
Reply
SnP about to close equal to the open a week ago.... give or take.
If long... maybe a time to make safe IMO.
dc CB 19:15 GMT May 16, 2014
one theory Ruskie Bonds - Belgium
Reply
Belgium is a major financial center and transit point for all kinds of assets, via a massive outfit, Euroclear, headquartered in Brussels.
Moving Russia�s holdings of US Treasuries is no big deal for Euroclear. It would simply become the custodian of Russia�s holdings; so officially, they�d be held by Belgium. Then Euroclear would mingle them with other Treasuries and transfer the whole schmear under its own name back to the Fed. Being officially held by Belgium, they�d be beyond the reach of the American government.
Russia Dumping US Treasuries? But Why the Heck in Belgium?
london red 19:07 GMT May 16, 2014
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many of these phenomenons are beyond by todo inbox but will say with a large degree of certainty that bond bubble will pop sooner or later. just that it might take a few more shorters before it goes. there time will come but how many will be about still solvent. inflation is heading up. one off events cant keep putting off the inevitable. but as i read on the wires somewhere today, the market can stay irrational longer than most can stay solvent.
dc CB 19:00 GMT May 16, 2014
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"do you think the entire FOMC would agree to keep this "conspiracy"? Misuse of Federal funds, off balance sheet holdings and nobody on the FOMC blinks at some serious jail time"
and who pray tell is going to Put Them In Jail.
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 18:37 GMT May 16, 2014
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closing Long 3705 now..only lost 7 pips this time versus 22 last
on a roll..
thanks for forum and good luck to all
lookin offshore fun for now..have a good w/e
Paris ib 18:30 GMT May 16, 2014
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nh - do I think that it is possible that the FED in some capacity is doing covert QE in Belgium? Yes. But then since I seriously started entertaining the possibility that the whole 9/11 story is a hoax... then I also started to entertain the possibility that the U.S. is an incredibly corrupt country.
How do you explain the fact that the NY FED has refused to return Germany's gold? What's your take on that matter?
Sorry but the U.S. has lost its status totally, at least in my opinion. And that's without even considering its crazy military adventurism around the world.
GVI Forex john 18:25 GMT May 16, 2014
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Falling into the category of watching paint dry, the July 2015 Fed Funds futures implies an average rate 0f 0.40% in that month. That works out to 60% odds of one 25bp rate hike as of that time. Odds of that one rate hike have been running above 50% since Yellen misspoke (?).
Livingston nh 18:14 GMT May 16, 2014
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ib - do you think the entire FOMC would agree to keep this "conspiracy"? Misuse of Federal funds, off balance sheet holdings and nobody on the FOMC blinks at some serious jail time -- not a ____ing chance !!!
Paris ib 17:47 GMT May 16, 2014
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Zero chance that "it" will ever be revealed - sure - but without more transparency the credibility of the FED is already undermined regardless. That's not a good place to be when you aspire to maintain international reserve currency status.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:44 GMT May 16, 2014
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Still zero chance IMHO
I am enjoying watching the so called pundits trying to explain the fall in bond yields.
Also, picking up a growing chorus of a weak EZ economy (Germany excluded) and ECB being behind the curve.
Paris ib 17:31 GMT May 16, 2014
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Jay - seriously these days I don't put anything past the administration of the United States. But that's just me. In the bigger picture what counts is how international investors react to these stories. I'm not altogether sure that the FED now has the confidence of the rest of the world. I'm not even sure that it has the confidence of residents of the United States.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:27 GMT May 16, 2014
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ib, that is a conspiracy theory I seriously doubt. if it was ever revealed that the Fed was behind it then it would destroy its credibility. i give it zero chance that the Fed is involved.
Paris ib 17:25 GMT May 16, 2014
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If the Chinese or the Japanese get really worried and start unloading then I don't think Belgium can stand in the way and we are headed to 3%. Confidence, as always, is key.
Paris ib 17:23 GMT May 16, 2014
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Whether we get to 2% or 3% depends on whether you think the FED is really tapering or not. I note that a lot of the usual pundits have been paraded around to conveniently explain why Belgium is buying up all those U.S. Treasuries since late last year when the official 'Taper' began. We need to know what is really behind that Belgian buying. If it's the FED engaging in covert QE then bonds stay bid and the USD doesn't. But it opens up a whole can of worms about the integrity of the financial system. Just look what happened to Gold since all those questions started about why the NY Fed can't or won't return Germany's gold as requested. Lots of scarcity of Gold for delivery but price falls on the paper (fictitious) Gold market. Things are a little weird at the moment to say the least.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:16 GMT May 16, 2014
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2.50% is like the a big figure ending in 5 like 1.3500, 1.6500, etc
It will determine whether the focus/risk is on 3.00% or 2.00% even though the latter seems like a major reach.
Paris ib 17:12 GMT May 16, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
John - when did this arbitrary 2.5% thing become important for the market? It seems like a bit of a beat up / distraction to me. Meanwhile we are all watching paint dry.
GVI Forex john 16:01 GMT May 16, 2014
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Markets appear to be laying low into the weekend. Prime fixed income markets have seen yields bounce back higher today after sharp declines yesterday. Bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are mixed. Equities are performing relatively poorly. European equities are ending mixed. Earlier, Far East markets ended mostly down. U.S. equities are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.51%, +1bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).
Belgrade TD 15:59 GMT May 16, 2014
Daily TA trade
Belgrade TD 17:54 GMT May 7, 2014
short Duke Energy (DUK) ~73,5 ...
SP500 short avg 1882
short NAtGas (mini) ~4,75 ...
Long EUR/NZD ~1,586 ...
###
1) close 2/3 of DUK ~71,5 ... for rest 1/3 Stop - 71,9 ... Target 70,1
2) SP500 fut still in with 6/7 ... S/T - ~1805/BE
3) out all NatGas ~ 4,44
4) EUR/NZD new S/T - 1,62+/1,572
***
that all ... nice Wk to all :)
london red 15:52 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
unlikely this year but possibly q3 2015 as far as the economies are concerned, eurozone should then be closer or at uk levels. fx may not wait that long, turning points are when the bulk of the move gets priced in. slight digression but yesterday db put out a nice summary re treasurys and suggested then when bubble bursts the bulk of the move historically takes around 2 months. if we're still at 2.5% then we will get to 3 or 3.5% very quickly, which is going to be painful for some.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:27 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
red, no chance of funding patterns changing with risk of higher UK rates and lower EZ rates.
Richland QC Mailman 15:26 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
How long will the tight forex movement persist? Tight ranges almost everyday, now fireworks, dull market.
london red 15:25 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
yes the pair is able to cause volatilty in the both euro and cable and give either support or weakness compared to the other. eurgbp is set to go a bit lower but possibly will bounce short term particularly if we close at or near low for week. a close below 8160 opens up a test of 8000(8114) longer term. but still look for it to trade up to short averages next week to fill the range. wothwhile top picking unless 8200 vaulted but even then only 8250 seen before lower. we need to see a change in fundis in either uk or europe to pull the plug on the bear trend. it will come of course but not for a while.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:02 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
Red, if you are still tuning in. When you see GBPUSD firm as it did today, assume there is a cross offset. Notice once it topped, EURUSD came down - suspect is weaker EURGBP
SaaR KaL 14:56 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
Could do longs AUDUSD
Below 0.9355
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:49 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
Despite trading soft EURUSD has closed each of the past 5 days at 1.37XX but bearish while below the 100 day mva (1.3737). 5 day mva = 1.3727 and if it closes here, will be 1.3718 at today's close.
london red 14:42 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
tighter ranges can mean tighter stops so less drawdown. but tight ranges historically always come to an end, although some say its different this time with the entry of hft in fx.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:39 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
EURUSD ranges this week have been one day tight, one day wider
Monday 25
Tuesday 85
Wednesday 37
Thursday 85
Friday 39 (so far)
And 85 pips is considered a wide range when it used to be considered below average
SaaR KaL 14:31 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
NDX Longs Below 3555
EURNZD Shorts above 1.5850
NZDCHF Long below 0.7720
GVI Forex 14:19 GMT May 16, 2014
US GDP Forecasts
Reply
5/16/2014 10:01:14 AM
(US) Philadelphia Fed survey of professional forecasters raise Q2 GDP forecast to 3.3% from 3.0% prior; Q3 GDP forecast to 2.9% from 2.8%- Q4 growth will be 3.2%, up from 2.7% in the last survey. At the same time, surprisingly weak historical first-quarter growth is pulling down the surveys current projection for growth in the annual-average level of real GDP in 2014, from 2.8% in the last survey to 2.4% in this survey
- Forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 6.4% in 2014, before falling to 5.9% in 2015, 5.6% in 2016, and 5.5% in 2017. The projections for 2014, 2015, and 2016 are below those of the last survey.
- Forecasters projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 196,500 in 2014, up from the previous estimate of 187,700, and 202,700 in 2015
- Source TradeTheNews.com
SaaR KaL 14:19 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
GBPJPY Short above 170
GBPAUD SHorts above 1.79
GBPNZD Shorts above 1.937
GVI Forex john 14:13 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
I've noticed that cable trades nicely in tandem with the emini-S&P futures.
SaaR KaL 14:08 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
will short cable today when ever above
1.6760
same with EURUSD above 1.37
Gold Longs below 1300
Silver Below 19.6
GL
london red 13:34 GMT May 16, 2014
cable
Reply
Touches hourly trendline and almost 38.2 fib at 33. Either stays in trend and down or breaks trendline from 50-70 then we get the pullback. I posted some levels earlier for stops.
GVI Forex john 13:14 GMT May 16, 2014
April 2014 U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)
As I look at the Housing Starts and Permits data (chart below), It looks like we are still in a range that started about a year ago, but we might be on the cusp of an upside break out? On the other hand check out the new homes sales data (bottom of chart). That looks pretty grim. The latest New Homes Sales data are released at the end of next week.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:39 GMT May 16, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
What has worked as a defined risk trade is buying USDJPY below 101.50 with a stop below 101.30. Held the stop by 1 pip yesterday.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:37 GMT May 16, 2014
eur/$
I posted a weekly video update on GVIForex yesterday and see below as it points out the current picture and key levels
Weekly Video Market Update
uk rg 12:32 GMT May 16, 2014
eur/$
Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
On the weekly we are going into an ascending triangle
Apex would be on 31/5/14 I think
Now sitting on ichimoku (kijun-sen)
It will not give up easily
Where is it going?
Good question
GVI Forex john 11:48 GMT May 16, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Markets appear to be looking for an idea. I am noticing the mini-S&P and USDJPY correlation looks to be trying to kick in. ON my charts it looks like USDJPY is currently lagging the S&P somewhat to the upside.
The opening NY level in EURUSD (1.3701). Is virtually neutral vis-a-vis the pivot point (1.3696) based on Thursdays range. See Pivot point table below for key pivot points and pivot point support and resistance levels.
Chart Points - Pivot Based Levels
GVI Forex john 08:47 GMT 05/16/2014
Livingston nh 11:46 GMT May 16, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
God idea John - Fed could support it even more by selling treasuries to buy more MBS (Yellen's current pet concern)
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 11:46 GMT May 16, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
GM�in spite of short warnings reloaded will again Long at 3705 with 3684 stop for 3750/75 ..looking for a BE trade..
last attempt - 22..
roll 'em and gt gt
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:39 GMT May 16, 2014
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John, I have heard the same chatter about a collateral shortage.
GVI Forex john 11:36 GMT May 16, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
nh- here is an off the wall idea. It strikes me that the move into Treasuries may be due to a collateral shortage. Any chance the Fed might consider "temporarily" HALTING the purchase of Treasuries to stabilize bond yields?
The asset purchase program seems to have done a lot more harm than good.
Livingston nh 11:27 GMT May 16, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
JP - Fed usual response to cut rates not available so risk may be the Taper gets stalled so treasuries look good and lower yields hurt USD - OR the crisis is EU so bunds do well but periphery suffers, EUR down, treasuries up but USD up too - OR NFP is Very Strong and inflation indicators (ISM, CPI) heat up so short end gets whacked, stox drop
Who knows what the test will be? But the test will determine the trade response
Belgrade TD 11:19 GMT May 16, 2014
Daily TA trade
Belgrade TD 17:54 GMT May 7, 2014
still in with SP500 short avg 1882 ... etc
###
1/7 out ~1865 ... reducing risk ...
Mtl JP 10:59 GMT May 16, 2014
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Livingston nh 10:44 so what should I buy and what sell ?
tia
Livingston nh 10:44 GMT May 16, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
The window for testing new Fed chairman is upon us - markets are confused as accepted themes are being challenged and events (EU + Greece elections, Asian tensions, rate risks as hikes or cuts battle) are adding regular dose of uncertainty // Fed will be down to only two governors in June - you don't need to hypothesize conspiracy when reality is sufficient cause for some concern
GVI Forex john 10:43 GMT May 16, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
TODAY:
United States: Housing Starts And Permits- key focus for the markets after Fed Chair Yellen put the spotlight on these data. With the weather improving better data are priced in.
University of Michigan Sentiment- Preliminary data for May are due. Data recently have been on an improving path. Recently the sentiment data of all stripes have not been reliable predictors of the hard data.
Commitment of Traders Report- Data as of Tuesday's close.
Focus on Friday will be on how traders in equities will want to be positioned into the weekend. For once the focus might not be on Ukraine?
GVI Forex 10:19 GMT May 16, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Equities turned south suddenly a little while ago: DAX, FTSE, S&P futures etc.
GVI Forex john 09:20 GMT May 16, 2014
Chart Points - Pivot Based Levels
Hi KAL
I am aware of forecasts from people I trust of end of year forecasts for EURUSD levels of around 1.3000. Keep in mind that ANY forecast by anyone for a forex level that far away is almost guaranteed to be wrong. However, the view in general from professional forecasters is that the EUR has to weaken from current levels, but not by a massive amount.
london red 09:17 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
cable higher high daily high. fib at 33 should cap. if not 100 day at 59 and a couple of other fibs at 64 and 68. 20 day at 45. 10 day 65. so plenty of topside resistance.
GVI Forex john 09:13 GMT May 16, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
Lots of green in the fixed income markets early in Europe today as yields appear to be consolidating the major declines made on Thursday. Depending on how equities perform, odds are traders will be trying to take a low profile into the weekend. Yields on The peripheral European bond yields are mixed after a volatile session yesterday. European equities are mixed. Far East equities closed mostly lower. U.S. S&P futures are steady. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.51%, +1bp
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red).
SaaR KaL 09:12 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
Cable
Most likely range today
1.6842 1.6773
SaaR KaL 08:52 GMT May 16, 2014
Chart Points - Pivot Based Levels
Hi John
May I ask if you know any views (From reliable source)...as in where they see the euro next year?...TIA
SaaR KaL 07:57 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
anyone have a view for eurusd next year? TIA
SaaR KaL 07:25 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
GBPJPY shorts
170.6606
Holding till 168
SaaR KaL 07:22 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
USDJPY
Short
101.6420
probabaly 101 tgt
SaaR KaL 07:16 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
Probably Long EURUSD around 1.3696
tgt 1.3780
cable
1.6777
for 1.6840
SaaR KaL 06:19 GMT May 16, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
Gold Long
at 1295.9 tgt 1303 in 6 hrs i think
seems like a good short there at 1303
for 1282 Monday
jkt abel 04:18 GMT May 16, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
closed half for profit +63pips here 1.3716, the rest still running with stop at BE
still have a plan for 1.3590-1.3610 if seen
jkt abel 11:15 GMT May 15, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today: Reply
euro long stopped out, try again 1.3653, adding 1.3590-1.3610, stop all under 1.3550, still seeing US summer range 1.35-1.40 IMHO
ny upstate 01:05 GMT May 16, 2014
Watching paint dry
Reply
Walk out for 3 hours and rates are the same when I walk back in. Asia market has been dead.
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