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Forex Forum Archive for 05/17/2014

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GVI Forex john 22:34 GMT May 17, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

Mixed picture in the S&P. Note in the blue chart that the market has been short the e-mini for several weeks. Spot S&P has crossed through (below) the 20-day average. This chart suggests that in the short-term world that this market is NOT especially vulnerable to a major break. This is in my very humble opinion. Equities could be different than forex because it is traded in a longer-term time time horizon. Any other views?

GVI Forex john 21:35 GMT May 17, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

If you look at the blue chart for the 10-yr Note, you will see that it highlights net positions. The large swings in net shorts shows how traders have been fighting the downward slide in rates. That slide has been running contrary to conventional wisdom that has been that rates should have been RISING as the Fed has been tapering its Asset Purchase Program.

GVI Forex john 21:25 GMT May 17, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

fwiw the 20-day average of the 10-yr is now 2.64% and it closed Friday at about 2.52%.

GVI Forex john 21:16 GMT May 17, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

One key focus recently has been on the performance of the 10-yr Note where yields have been falling to new lows. Surprisingly, although, futures have been short, they still are net short (betting on higher interest rates), but net shorts have been significantly reduced. I guess each has his/her own point of pain. If the market is positioned wrong, then the risk on rates remains to the downside. Note on the charts that the right hand scale is inverted because bond markets trade in terms of prices (not yields). In bonds, yields fall as prices rise and vice-versa.

Mtl JP 21:09 GMT May 17, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

GVI Forex john 17:18 / as u probably know all too well ( and a lot of gv players) being short the euro has been THE pain trade of the ytd. So it remains to be seen IF this euro bear positioning is going to suffer similar fate OR if its the real train to Short Town

HK RF@ 20:13 GMT May 17, 2014
The Chinese government has evacuated more than 3,000 of its national from Vietnam

The Chinese government has evacuated more than 3,000 of its national from Vietnam following a wave of anti-Chinese riots, Chinese media report.

Xinhua news agency says Beijing is arranging charter flights and ships to help more people to leave.

At least two Chinese nationals have been killed and 100 injured in recent unrest in Vietnam over a Chinese oil rig drilling in disputed waters.

On Saturday the Vietnamese government called for an end to the protests.

It said the violence could damage national stability.

However, dissident groups have urged people to rally again in major cities on Sunday.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:34 GMT May 17, 2014
Investors accuse 12 banks of forex price rigging in U.S. lawsuit

Syd date on that story is April 1

Syd 19:27 GMT May 17, 2014
Investors accuse 12 banks of forex price rigging in U.S. lawsuit
Investors accuse 12 banks of forex price rigging in U.S. lawsuit

Investors, including the city of Philadelphia and a variety of pension funds and hedge funds, accused the banks of conspiring since January 2003 in chat room discussions, instant messages and by email to manipulate the WM/Reuters Closing Spot Rates.

manipulate the WM/Reuters Closing Spot Rates.

Syd 19:01 GMT May 17, 2014
How The Forex "Fix" May Be Rigged
The colossal size of the global foreign exchange (�forex�) market dwarfs that of any other, with an estimated daily turnover of $5.35 trillion, according to the Bank for International Settlements� triennial survey of 2013. Speculative trading dominates commercial transactions in the forex market, as the constant fluctuation (to use an oxymoron) of currency rates makes it an ideal venue for institutional players with deep pockets � such as large banks and hedge funds � to generate profits through speculative currency trading. While the very size of the forex market should preclude the possibility of anyone rigging or artificially

fixing currency rates, a growing scandal suggests otherwise.

dc CB 18:45 GMT May 17, 2014
no the 1985 Terry Gilliam movie distopian movie.

World Cup 2014

Brazil unveils �Robocop� suit to protect super-elite police unit during World Cup

dc CB 18:29 GMT May 17, 2014
DC RE Market: one of the hottest in the US
Sluggish sales continued last month as buyers stayed away, according to data released Monday by RealEstate Business Intelligence, a subsidiary of MRIS, the Rockville-based multiple listing service.

Many real estate agents pointed to the harsh winter as the reason for lackluster sales in the first part of the year. But as the weather improved, sales did not. Only 3,883 homes were sold in the D.C. area in April, the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year declines. It seems factors other than weather have led to the slowdown.

Pending sales � homes under contract but the deals have not closed � also declined year-over-year in April, the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines and an indication that the pace of sales isn�t picking up anytime soon.

Meanwhile, prices are rising, which should encourage more people to put their homes on the market but may price buyers out of their dream homes. The median price for homes sold in the D.C. region rose to $412,500 last month, a year-over-year increase of 3.1 percent and the highest price for the month of April since 2007. The median price for the area has shown year-over-year-over gains each of the past 27 months.

D.C. area housing market is having a disappointing spring

GVI Forex john 17:18 GMT May 17, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

The Draghi too strong EUR forex comments came mid-way in the weekly COT snapshot period, so we cannot identify precisely what happened immediately thereafter. But in any case, if you look closely and the red and green bars you can see traders had flipped from net long to net short the EURUSD by last Tuesday's close.

I have found that spot vs, the 20-day average is a good predictor of major swings in net positions. Below the 20day moving average (1.3815), the SHORT side is the strong side of the market. Second blue chart below highlights NET Positions.

Livingston nh 16:03 GMT May 17, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

1. A declining MACD from mid March hi to recent pre-ECB hi - a double top??
2. LT support 144 EMA has to be watched for a close below
3. 21 dma and 55, 89 ema are rolling over - previously only the 21 turned down w/ LT avgs steady or rising
4. 21 dma has not crossed below any of LT avgs yet so this drop could be insignificant and just modest discounting of the June ECB

GVI Forex 11:40 GMT May 17, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

Speculators turn bullish on US dollar; longs highest since March 11-CFTC (RTRS)

Mtl JP 11:38 GMT May 17, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Jay 17:44 - just noticed london red 19:07 post
- succinct and bang on imo

Also probably a good whale of trade idea to consider for the patient kind of player.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:27 GMT May 17, 2014
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Mtl JP 11:21 GMT May 17, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Jay Meisler 17:44 // is watching the pundits , in trading, used to gage what the trading crowd is going to do as it digests the pablum ?

Noticeable are player re-shuffling abd re-allocations of positions in view of a new mix of economic incoming and by players expected data that show crappy economic growth and rising price-inflation (thanks to the "policy" meddlers, but that is a side-issue)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:18 GMT May 17, 2014
Knowledge is Power
STAY INFORMED: Click below for articles of interest posted this past week

- Long-Term Rates Falling - Themes May 18, 2014
- Green Light Says Go! Don't Fight the Central Banks
- Why American Baseball is Like Forex Trading
- Put This on Your Trading Checklist
- Ask Your Advocate: What is the Optimum Leverage for a Retail Forex Trader?
- Is Forex Trading Rigged? Insider Currency Trading Exposed

STAY INFORMED: Click for articles of interest posted this past week


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