Sydney ACC 23:39 GMT May 20, 2014
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No. If, however, the underlying strategy is correct the dips are likely to continue to be bought.
While India's reserve are precariously low, do they have the cash to finance additional purchases plus the infrastructure to store it.
Syd 22:38 GMT May 20, 2014
THE CASE FOR A CHINESE REAL ESTATE CRISIS � IT COULD CRUSH THE AUSSIE
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The Case for a Chinese Real Estate Crisis � It could crush the Aussie
I think it is fair to say the Aussie is in trouble if China continues to slow its own demand for resources. And I think it is fair to say the Aussie gets crushed should China experience a crisis triggered by the feedback loop between real estate and shadow banking.
link
Syd 22:07 GMT May 20, 2014
HAS AUSSIE MADE A TOP?
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S&P clarified its statement in overnight trade, saying that there was �less than 1-in-3 chance� that Australia would lose its AAA rating, the currency nevertheless drifted lower all night long as the mere threat of a downgrade was enough to push speculative flows out of the unit.
link
Mtl JP 22:07 GMT May 20, 2014
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ya ACC, piece is a few days old already and so far whatever tension Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph imagins has not manifestly translated in price-action.
Do you see a profitable trade opp from that piece ?
dc CB 21:42 GMT May 20, 2014
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Joe
FWIW
Crude.
Tues evening is the API report..never enter before the report. 4:30 PM NY time
Wed is the EIA report at 10:30AM. It usually more of less follows the API in that if there is a Draw there will be a Draw...if a Build, etc.
The API Draw was large...not a time to be shorting.
Sydney ACC 21:30 GMT May 20, 2014
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Have you seen this:
Ambrose Evans Pritchard
China steps up speed of oil stockpiling as tensions mount in Asia
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10839701/China-steps-up-speed-of-oil-stockpiling-as-tensions-mount-in-Asia.html
Cambridge Joe 20:51 GMT May 20, 2014
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Oil certainly caught me on the hop....
Sold again @ 102.88 & UKOil also.
If it doesn't work.... re-tune, re-examine.... try to understand why.
Mtl JP 20:48 GMT May 20, 2014
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Paris ib 19:38 - I hope I read that you are excited about that and that you are making scads of posi-profits off riding on the backs of the collusionist c-bankers
GVI Forex john 20:47 GMT May 20, 2014
GVI Forex Trading Planner
Reply
WEDNESDAY 21 May 2014
Japan:
- - Bank of Japan Meeting No
policy changes are expected. More QE in the future?
United Kingdom.
- - Retail Sales. One of the key
measures of the strength of the economy.��
- - BOE Meeting Minutes. This is
where
we get the first hard information about the BOE Meeting two weeks ago.
The key thing to watch for is the amount of "slack" in the economy.
Managing potential non-inflationary growth has become a key BOE policy
objective.
Eurozone:
- - Consumer Confidence not a
market mover, but� a useful sentiment barometer.
United States-
- - FRB Chair Yellen: Commencement
Address at NYU. Don't expect much. This is not the venue.
- - FOMC Minutes: Further detail on
the April 29-30 policy decision.
THURSDAY 22 May 2014
U.K.:
.- - GDP. The second revision to
1Q14 is not likely to be changed much. Unlikely to be a market mover.
Eurozone:
- - flash May PMI's. Always
closely followed, but we have not been seeing a reliable pass through
of the PMI sentiment recently to hard data.
United States:
- - Existing Homes Sales�
the most important U.S. housing statistics. It is seen improving.
Canada:
- - Retail Sales Key Canadian
statistic, but it tend to be rather old. Seen weaker,
GVI Forex john 20:40 GMT May 20, 2014
Weekly US API Data
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NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -10.300 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +0.947 prev.
Gasoline: +0.135 vs. 0.000 exp vs. -0.770 prev.
Distillates: +1.360 vs. 0.000 exp vs. -1.120 prev.
Cap/Util: 90.3% vs. n/a exp vs. 88.80% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Paris ib 19:40 GMT May 20, 2014
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The way Central Banks are 'talking' these days is very peculiar. I continue to wonder what is behind all these mutterings.
Paris ib 19:38 GMT May 20, 2014
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It might be some latent concern about the USD. Talking hiking rates in an attempt to boost the buck. The collusion between Central Bankers in this regard is unbelievable. Draghi talking the Euro down by hinting at all sorts of easing possibilities and the FED moving into hawkish 'talk'.
Livingston nh 18:42 GMT May 20, 2014
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It may be that Dudley is reaching the end of his Fed career - he may stick around until the Taper process ends // he may feel it's time to pursue "other interests" so he may move away from the party line
The dovish Troika is over and new power centers in FOMC will rise - it has been a while
GVI Forex john 17:38 GMT May 20, 2014
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Comments from Fed Dove Dudley are being read as more hawkish from him than might have been expected. Like hawk, Plosser, Dudley has a positive view of the economic recovery. This has equity markets a little worried about an earlier than expected Fed policy tightening. equities are softer. The EURUSD has not moved much.
dc CB 17:15 GMT May 20, 2014
Eric Holder had a busy day
(Reuters) - The U.S. government urged a federal judge to throw out a lawsuit seeking to scuttle its landmark $13 billion settlement with JPMorgan Chase & Co, rejecting a claim that the accord let the largest U.S. bank off too easily.
Better Markets Inc, a nonprofit critical of Wall Street, had in February accused the government of "unilaterally" engineering a backroom accord giving JPMorgan "blanket civil immunity" for selling shoddy mortgage securities before the financial crisis.
In a court filing on Monday night, however, the Justice Department said its decision to settle was "presumptively" unreviewable, and that Better Markets lacked standing to sue.
The Justice Department's power "to settle claims of the United States is undiminished, and that includes 'the power to make erroneous decisions as well as correct ones,'" the department said, citing a 1928 U.S. Supreme Court decision.
"Plaintiff's claim that DOJ's decision to settle was arbitrary and capricious, or an abuse of discretion, must ... fail," it added.
U.S. Rejects Challenge to $13 Billion JPMorgan Chase Settlement
GVI Forex john 16:17 GMT May 20, 2014
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Hearing one guy on CNBC saying that 101.20 was the old break-out level in USDJPY. Frankly I can't find it. He also noted 101.20 is the 200-day average. We have it in the same neighborhood (101.26 basis Monday close). The 200-day average is not as important to forex markets as it is to stocks.
He also said if USDJPY breaks significantly lower, then stocks could head south as well. I have trouble with the reasons for the correlation only that it works.
In the olden days there used to be a Soybean to Silver correlation because the price boards on the wall had the two commodities next to each other. So people traded it only because it worked!
GVI Forex john 15:29 GMT May 20, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
- In late European and midday NY trading has slipped more
- Prime fixed income
markets are seeing yields broadly higher. Yields on
bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have moved� relatively even
higher as funds move back into the prime markets from the periphery.
- Equities rallied in the Far East, but European
bourses turned south U.S. equity futures are
currently trading weaker.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.53%, 0bp.
The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red)
Cambridge Joe 14:47 GMT May 20, 2014
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'maybe for a couple of days. IMO. GL'
maybe (usdx selling) for a couple of days. IMO. GL
Sorry.... too much haste.
GVI Forex john 14:20 GMT May 20, 2014
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10-yr 2.532% 0bp that is -1bp from earlier today. Falling equity prices driving yields lower (bond prices higher).
GVI Forex john 13:53 GMT May 20, 2014
Calendar
Exactly. Those kids are facing the worst (structural) job market since WWII. She should tell them to pray for a job!
Paris ib 13:50 GMT May 20, 2014
Calendar
isn't she supposed to go out and tell everyone to change the world? And other goody goody rot?
GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT May 20, 2014
Calendar
You never know, but it is unlikely Yellen will make a policy statement at a University graduation. I would not be surprised to hear general remarks about the current job market.
GVI Forex john 13:46 GMT May 20, 2014
Calendar
Reply
May 21 Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Commencement Remarks
At the New York University Commencement, New York, New York
11:30 a.m. ET
GVI Forex Blog 13:42 GMT May 20, 2014
Reply
May 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, May 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, Bank of Japan. GB- Bank of England Minutes, Retail Sales, EZ- Consumer Confidence.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 21, 2014
GVI Forex john 13:38 GMT May 20, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
May 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, May 21.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, Bank of Japan. GB- Bank of England Minutes, Retail Sales, EZ- Consumer Confidence, Yellen, Fed Minutes.
- Far East: CN- HSBC PMI, Bank of Japan.
- Europe: GB- Bank of England Minutes, Retail Sales, EZ- Consumer Confidence.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, Yellen, Fed Minutes.
Paris ib 12:11 GMT May 20, 2014
AUD
Reply
The fundamental outlook for the AUD continues to deteriorate:
- China is not buying Iron Ore at higher and higher prices
- Consumer confidence is on the slide
- The budget fight has just begun
For now housing is still holding up. And that's the key. If housing goes, it all goes.
Australian Consumer Confidence
Paris ib 11:49 GMT May 20, 2014
Euro shares, peripheral bonds feel election pressure
The EU elections will see Euro scepticism triumph. Why anyone should care who gets elected to a rubber stamp European Parliament is beyond me. It's a poll more than an election. The European Parliament reminds me of the old soviet parliaments: just for show. Expensive but pointless.
Livingston nh 11:42 GMT May 20, 2014
Of Puzzlement
Reply
Hmmm - a novel explanation for the strange bond behavior --
"As JPMorgan warns, expecting bond prices to collapse may require more patience.
"The risk is that bond yields rise no faster than the forwards. Financial overheating (asset inflation) proceeds much faster than economic overheating (CPI inflation). Before CPI inflation has a chance to emerge, and before monetary policy is truly above neutral, a financial bubble will have popped up somewhere and will have corrected, pushing the economy down. That is what has happened in the past 25 years.""
LINK
Yellen's new unlegislated third addition to Fed Mandates plays well here
Belgrade TD 11:39 GMT May 20, 2014
Daily TA trade
Belgrade TD 10:28 GMT May 14, 2014
open new Long EUR/NZD ~1,586 ...
###
1/3 out ~1.596 ... reducing risk ... final target ~1.62 ...
Paris ib 11:30 GMT May 20, 2014
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Is anyone asking why they are doing this?
It's not deflation so what's the problem?
Are our banks about to collapse or something?
GVI Forex 11:25 GMT May 20, 2014
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MAJOR BANK ANALYSIS --
Expect ECB to pre-announce private sector asset purchases in June. Amount to about EUR 300 bln, programme could be expanded to govt bonds.
Expect rate cuts in June to combat EUR strength, additional liquidity.
Paris ib 11:17 GMT May 20, 2014
(AU) RBA Assistant Gov Debelle:- Source TradeTheNews.com
The fall in iron ore prices are also a concern. Australia has been reduced to being an Iron Ore exporter and precious little else. Plus the government is under pressure from a very unpopular budget.... which very likely won't make it through parliament. Frankly the budget is so obnoxious it almost looks like Abbott wanted it to be opposed.
Iron Ore
GVI Forex john 11:11 GMT May 20, 2014
(AU) RBA Assistant Gov Debelle:- Source TradeTheNews.com
REPEAT: Source of AUD weakness today?
(AU) RBA Assistant Gov Debelle: Lower capital inflows may result in drop in A$ - press conf- Japanese investors may increase demand for A$ govt debt. - Sees reduced capital flows in resource product. - Demand for Australia govt debt remains robust. - Most reserve managers have A$ assets, not many new buyers. - Many new sovereign buyers of aud assets not likely. - Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex john 10:52 GMT May 20, 2014
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Reply
As of this hour, the USDJPY to S&P correlation is working nicely. Think about it, when major central banks move reserves out of EUR and into JPY, this is bearish for U.S. stox. Figure that out!
Also worries about the European periphery have been mounting, This is causing an unwinding of the intra-Eurozone arbitrage where funds had been flowing from lower (low risk) yielding sovereign debt to the high yielders (high risk). I suspect the widening of yield spreads has been weighing on confidence in the EUR.
Today sees no major data from the U.S. So we are back watching stox and the EURJPY cross.
manila tom 09:30 GMT May 20, 2014
euro
Reply
looks like quite some buyers now against 1.3640-50, but lower is more prudent to try IMO
GVI Forex john 08:55 GMT May 20, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
- Markets are off to a mixed start early in Europe. It
appears that Europe is moving back to a mixed "risk-off" posture ahead
of the U.S, open?
- Prime fixed income
markets are seeing� yields mostly higher even though equities in
Europe have weakened� Yields on
bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are mixed.
- �Equities rallied in the Far East, but European
bourses have been turning south � U.S. equity futures are
currently trading a touch weaker.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.54%, +1bp.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns
all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off
(red)
GVI Forex john 08:42 GMT May 20, 2014
April 2014 UK CPI/RPIX
U.K. CPI & RPIX data rises slightly more than expected. BOE focus these days has been "slack " in the economy. GBPUSD gains then falls.
london red 08:16 GMT May 20, 2014
cable
Reply
currently testing 200 hour ma. fibs at 65 and 95. ultimately if 1.69 caps then downside still in play. above 1.69 then 1.70 test back on cards. todays cpi is set to be firmer due to later easter in 2014 but given rally since friday, need 1.8 or higher to avoid disappointment, although retails specs are still short at best evens on cable by now, so some further pain cannot be ruled out.
minutes tomorrow may disappoint those looking for one or more members of mpc to break ranks and vote for a rate rise.
key eye on euro, if we see a rerun towards 200 day it means cable sooner or later follows, just a matter of time. eurgbp not likely to trade below 8100 for long before rebound.
Mtl JP 08:12 GMT May 20, 2014
Eric Holder had a busy day
so I wondered who is this "cybersecurity expert" Lewis to credibly claim that "The Chinese have more to lose in this than we do." without nay as word more about that. What does that say about "we" ?
SaaR KaL 08:00 GMT May 20, 2014
Just follow the indicators
I think will do this all week
EURUSD is useless
1.3690 to 1.3730 all week
GVI Forex 07:36 GMT May 20, 2014
UK data
Reply
Today�s release of the April inflation numbers marks the start of a busy week for UK economic data. CPI inflation eased for a sixth consecutive month to 1.6% in March - its lowest rate since October 2009. However, we suspect that this downward trend was halted in April and forecast that CPI inflation edged back up to 1.7%. The RPI measure is also expected to pick up and we look for this to rise to 2.6% from 2.5%. This partly reflects the later timing of Easter this year compared to last, with increases in airfares feeding through. In terms of pipeline price pressures, we forecast the annual pace of input price deflation slowed to 4.7% in April from 6.5%. Output price inflation should see some acceleration, the annual rate rising to 0.8% from 0.5%. Yet, with factory gate price inflation still relatively contained and given the elevated level of sterling, the inflation outlook is expected to remain relatively subdued over the coming year.
Lloyds Bank
london red 06:25 GMT May 20, 2014
aussie
Reply
10 week ma@9285. this ma has been very good at capping/supporting underlying trend on a multiweek basis.
so if we are to go back up its from here, otherwise this could be the begining of sustained weakness for the pair. its a weekly ma so all to play for til friday, but not often breached and reversed intraweek. so if it breaks its broken.
Johannesburg HvW 05:34 GMT May 20, 2014
Just follow the indicators
Good morning Mr.Wfakhoury,
Nice one!
Does it mean that you are back from today? Hope so.
And if you are, please may we see your view on the G/J pair plse?
Continued success to you.
Syd 05:04 GMT May 20, 2014
(AU) RBA Assistant Gov Debelle:- Source TradeTheNews.com
Reply
(AU) RBA Assistant Gov Debelle: Lower capital inflows may result in drop in A$ - press conf- Japanese investors may increase demand for A$ govt debt. - Sees reduced capital flows in resource product. - Demand for Australia govt debt remains robust. - Most reserve managers have A$ assets, not many new buyers. - Many new sovereign buyers of aud assets not likely. - Source TradeTheNews.com
dc CB 02:53 GMT May 20, 2014
Eric Holder had a busy day
Officials also say that thousands of attacks against the military networks of the United States and a number of Asian countries, including South Korea and Japan, have been attributed to the Chinese Navy�s First and Second Technical Reconnaissance Bureaus.
After Monday�s indictments, American officials say that they will be looking to see what, if any, steps Beijing takes to curb cyberespionage.
�A lot of this will depend on how the Chinese react to this in private,� said Mr. Lewis, the cybersecurity expert. �If they blow this off, you could imagine actions by the Treasury, visa restrictions on travel or restrictions on study.�
He added: �The Chinese have more to lose in this than we do.�
Questions Remain After Chinese Hacking Indictments
dc CB 02:42 GMT May 20, 2014
Eric Holder had a busy day
*CHINA CALLS U.S. THE BIGGEST ATTACKER OF CYBER SPACE: XINHUA
A spokesperson for China's State Internet Information Office on Monday published the latest data of U.S. cyber attack, saying that China is a solid defender of cyber security.
The U.S. is the biggest attacker of China's cyber space, the spokesperson said, adding that the U.S. charges of hacking against five Chinese military officers on Monday are "groundless".
Latest data from the National Computer Network Emergency Response Technical Team Coordination Center of China (NCNERTTCC) showed that from March 19 to May 18, a total of 2,077 Trojan horse networks or botnet servers in the U.S. directly controlled 1.18 million host computers in China
China Publishes Data Claiming US Is World's Largest Cyber Attacker
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:22 GMT May 20, 2014
AceTrader May 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY AUS/USD
20 May 2014 02:07GMT
USD/JPY - 101.57 ... The greenback fell to a fresh 3-month low at 101.10 against the Japanese yen yesterday on renewed risk aversion due to the sell off in Nikkei-225 index, however, short-covering together with the rise in Japanese equities today following the rebound in global stock markets lifted the pair n price rebound to 101.60 in Asia. Bids are now located at 101.45/40 n more at 101.30-25 with mixture of bids n stops seen at 101.00 level.
The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its April 29-30 meeting on May 21. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to give the New York University Commencement speech on the same day.
20 May 2014 01:33GMT
AUS/USD - 0.9311
RBA releases its minutes and said low rates appropriate for some time, rest of minutes as follow :
board considered current low rates to be appropriate for some time yet;
expansionary policy setting having expected effects on economy;
demand for labour remained subdued, likely to stay so for some time;
inflation consistent with target, forecast to remain so for next few years;
board noted overall growth in coming quarters likely to be below trend;
saw growth in domestic costs contained due in part to spare capacity in labour market;
forward-looking indicators improving but point to moderate jobs growth in months ahead;
recent data pointed to strong growth in dwelling investment in first half of 2014;
volume of iron ore and coal exports had risen strongly in recent months;
retail sales growth appeared to have moderated somewhat more recently;
pointed to some signs that recent slowing in china could be temporary;
Data to be release on Tuesday:
Australia Conference board leading index, RBA meeting minutes, Japan all industry activity index, leading index CI, machinery tool orders, Italy industrial orders, current account, Germany PPI, U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input and PPI output, ONS house price, Canada wholesale trade sales.
Mtl JP 01:02 GMT May 20, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
this piece The $12 Trillion Ticking Time Bomb by Phoenix Capital Research muses over Hilsenrath's One worry: As they move toward a new system, trading in the fed funds market could dry up and make the fed funds rate unstable. That could unsettle $12 trillion worth of derivatives contracts called interest rate swaps that are linked to the fed funds rate, posing problems for people and institutions using these instruments to hedge or trade. may be very worth while reading and making up one's own mind about the veracity of Yellen's and her officialdom making claims about the financial markets being fixed and rising economic recovery.
many more chart points
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