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Forex Forum Archive for 05/21/2014

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


nw kw 23:51 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EUROZONE MANUFACTURING DATA COULD FUEL QE SPECULATION

The EURUSD declined sharply on Wednesday as Janet Yellen took the stage, and look set to log a daily close below key long term support at 1.3661. For a while now we have been watching this level as on that could possibly represent a completion of the three month double top, and today’s action could be the catalyst behind a short entry with an initial downside target at 1.3593. Don’t be surprised if the pair corrects to retest broken support short term, but look for miss in tomorrow’s PMI releases to strengthen it as in term resistance and validate the aforementioned 1.3593 target.

GVI Forex 23:47 GMT May 21, 2014
In the News BoJ
Reply   
5/21/2014 7:25:40 PM
(JP) Nomura: sees BOJ may boost easing in Oct v July prior forecast - financial press

- Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 23:29 GMT May 21, 2014
Blame it on the weather
Reply   
Accuweather's European Summer forecast.


European Summer Forecast 2014: Widespread Heat, Drought

GVIForex Jay Meisler 23:23 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply   
Let's try it with specific currencies so it is easier to pick out the topic.

Agree or disagree.

EURUSD will not extend its 7 day pattern around 1.37 today. The best chance of this happening is if flash PMIs exceed forecasts and EURUSD pops up on the data. This would be an opportunity to sell unless it gets back above 1.3735. Currently, 1.3688 blocks return to 1.37.

By the way, it did reach an initial target of 1.3635 (low 1.3633) = 200 day mva where it bounced from.

nw kw 23:16 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

My question is whether we have seen a short-term bottom or a pause enroute to .8990-00

aud tops in April and September=sell aud

SaaR KaL 23:05 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

Housing Index USA
Lookin great

^hGX
Weekly Data
5 weeks 191.9657

22 weeks 220.8438

60 weeks 257.8572

200 weeks 148.9767

dc CB 22:59 GMT May 21, 2014
Endlessly wittering on about the USD and the way the CBs collude.

Summer Starts in the USA...Memorial Day Weekend.

Thurs is more or less that last trading day of this week...Friday is Get TF out of Town day...Next week has 4 trading days including portfoilio shuffling and the Window Dressing Day.

Don't expect 'da boys' to let Stox crash and give Bad Thoughts to the holiday beach goers.

Could pop above 1900 SnP...esp Friday low-no volume day afternoon. Kill The Shorts babeeeee.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 22:59 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

kw, suggestion. It pays not to rush through your posts and to take a little extra time to make sure we can understand what you are saying. Sometimes you seem to be in a rush and too much shorthand and abbreviations make it hard to get your point.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 22:55 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

Current breakdown level was .9325 so market trades bearish while below it but a bit too far for a stop.

On the other side, I pay notice when a pivotal big figure holds (e.g. .9200) so will focus on .9250 initially as it sets the tone while within .9200-.9300

My question is whether we have seen a short-term bottom or a pause enroute to .8990-00

nw kw 22:38 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

.9130 was old pivot for up or down aud

nw kw 22:36 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

Wednesday low was .9205//Jay isn't this a liquidating move if it is .930 is old pivot /and not much eur/aud retrace/sell under 40

nw kw 22:22 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

xaujpy starting to pull up poss weak yen starting for its a bit early start for yen gold on its own!!!!!!!!

nw kw 22:15 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

Jay Meisler you trade up to the news what approach are you looking for

Cambridge Joe 21:40 GMT May 21, 2014
Endlessly wittering on about the USD and the way the CBs collude.

This thread is started for Paris ib to use as opposed to 'share your trading ideas'.

Cambridge Joe 21:34 GMT May 21, 2014
Endlessly wittering on about the USD and the way the CBs collude.
Reply   
iF SnP can remain above 83.4 until 22:00 GMT , then the bottom will drop out . IMO. GL

GVIForex Jay Meisler 21:32 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

Wednesday low was .9205. You will find that when you pose a trading scenario or levels to watch in advance, it can lead to trading ideas. At a minimum it should create some lively discussion.

GVI Forex Blog 21:04 GMT May 21, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
Sentiment improved overnight. There were no surprises from either the FOMC minutes or Fed Chair Yellen's speech (which refrained from monetary policy comment). There was a brief knee-jerk bounce in US interest rates (and dip in equities) following the minutes which revealed a range of tools to normalise policy were discussed, but further reading showed nothing was decided and markets settled

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 20:58 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today


THURSDAY 22 May 2014
U.K.:
.- - GDP. The second revision to 1Q14 is not likely to be changed much. Unlikely to be a market mover.

Eurozone:
- - flash May PMI's. Always closely followed, but we have not been seeing a reliable pass through of the PMI sentiment recently to hard data.

United States:
- - Existing Homes Sales  the most important U.S. housing statistics. It is seen improving.

Canada:
- - Retail Sales Key Canadian statistic, but it tend to be rather old. Seen weaker,

GVIForex Jay Meisler 20:46 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

AUD: News and price action suggest a market turning bearish BUT

Is .9200 a short-term bottom?

Or is the market headed for .8990-00.

Agree or disagree? Feel free to express your views on either side as they will lead to trading ideas and scenarios.

GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data



May 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP, CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas

  • Far East: CN- HSBC PMI.
  • Europe: EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP.
  • North America: CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas.


GVI Forex john 20:38 GMT May 21, 2014
Chart Points- EUR Moving Averages

Note the bottom of the first two columns.
EURUSD 200-day average (1.3637) tested (LOD 1.3633)
EURJPY 200-day average (138.16) tested (LOD 138.16)

below 200-day average confirms a EUR L-T downtrend.

GVI Forex john 20:32 GMT May 21, 2014
Chart Points- EUR Moving Averages
Reply   
NEW Heat MAP EUR Crosses Moving Averages...




GVI Forex john 20:27 GMT May 21, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

Into Far East Trading Basis Wednesday ranges...




GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT May 21, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

london red 19:24 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

imo its all about valuations. money holds no prejudice, you buy cheap and sell high. there are a few markets you can put money to work in based on that one argument but all have drawbacks/risks as of now, so valuations may need to get surpressed a bit further before they are tempting enough possibly. i am involved in eastern europe and i can say the while the bottom is probably in, its going to take a year or two before hot money returns. but this time think you will need to seperate eastern europe, as not all states have solid fundamentals. i am hoping this ukraine standoff gives an opportunity to enter at prices not seen for 10 years. we are still some way off, but if we get there buying at 10 year lows/spreads rarely fails to pay off.
as for the majors, you really cant look past the uk/gbp, although the mpc is doing its best to tell you otherwise.

Livingston nh 19:10 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

red - might be some but where do you go?

Livingston nh 19:01 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

CB - let's see what she thinks of Ben next year

london red 19:00 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

so nh, in your view, does that lead to some dollar outflows?

cable. fib at 95. if cant capped think we look at upper bolli tomorrow, with next fib at 6939 before

dc CB 19:00 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes



Mr. Bernanke’s actions were courageous and “unprecedented in ambition and scope,” Ms. Yellen told a swirl of thousands of purple-robed graduates and their families who were gathered in the stands of Yankee Stadium for the ceremony.

“He faced relentless criticism, personal threats, and the certainty that history would judge him harshly if he were wrong,” she said. “But he stood up for what he believed was right and necessary. Ben Bernanke’s intelligence and knowledge served him well as chairman.”

At N.Y.U., Yellen Praises Her Fed Predecessor

Livingston nh 18:52 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

The main takeaway from the Minutes is that Ben's assurance that the exit from the Money Swamp would be "no problem" has morphed into a plea for "a Map, any Map" -- they went into this with neither plan nor concern for consequences so they prefer to stand still "for an extended period" and try to convince the market that this is a plan

This release should not fill anyone with confidence

GVIForex Jay Meisler 18:50 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

We would like to build this thread as it will encourage views on both sides.

EURUSD: After an invisible hand shows up around 1.3635 (200 day mva) what are the odds 1.3700, which has traded in each of the past 7 days, is seen before a re-test.

USDJPY: Has it seen a bottom?

GVI Forex john 18:47 GMT May 21, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


GVI Forex john 18:24 GMT May 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Post Fed Minutes 10-yr 2.54% +3bp

GVI Forex Blog 18:21 GMT May 21, 2014
No Surprises from Fed Minutes. Strong U.K. Retail Sales. BOJ and BOE in Line
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP, CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas

The latest Fed policy meeting minutes were dovish, as widely anticipated. They reinforced the common view that the central Bank is not in any rush to raise interest rates. Fed he April U.K. ex-fuel Retail Sales data saw the largest monthly increase since 2004. The data were helped by the late Easter holiday this year,

No Surprises from Fed Minutes. Strong U.K. Retail Sales. BOJ and BOE in Line

london red 18:11 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

yen while below 70 then downside still in play. above there 10220. but you have to still sell blips on this one until fed changes tune

london red 18:09 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

as you say dovish sounding but not really in line with trend of day hence the temp paralysis.
hourly tails on euro needs to be taken out or risk of 137+

dc CB 18:06 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes



FOMC PARTICIPANTS FAVORED MORE TESTING OF FED POLICY TOOLS, PLAN FURTHER REVIEW AT UPCOMING MEETINGS -

NY JM 18:05 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

Minutes sound dovish but FX market is not sure how to react.

USDJPY tests yesterday's 101.60 high (correlating with equities), above it would be an outside day.

GVI Forex john 18:05 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


May 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP, CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas

  • Far East: CN- HSBC PMI.
  • Europe: EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP.
  • North America: CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas.


GVI Forex john 18:03 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on April 29-30, 2014.

The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes are based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting.

FOMC Policy Minutes

GVI Forex john 18:01 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Jobless rate does not capture full economic slack
Seek better forward guidance


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVIForex Jay Meisler 17:38 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?

There still seems to an invisible hand defending 1.3645 (50% of 1.3294-1.3996).

dc CB 17:37 GMT May 21, 2014
Windows 8 users
Reply   
Windows 8 with TPM 2.0 allows Microsoft to control the computer remotely through a built-in backdoor.

. Its purpose is Digital Rights Management and computer security. The system decides what software was legally obtained and allows it to run; and it disables other software, such as bootlegged copies or viruses. The process is governed by Windows, and through remote access, by Microsoft.

What is new about TPM 2.0 is that it’s activated by default when the computer boots up. The user cannot turn it off. Microsoft decides what software can run on the computer, and the user cannot influence it. Windows governs TPM 2.0. What Microsoft does remotely is not visible to the user. Users of Windows 8 with TPM 2.0 surrender control over their machines the moment they turn it on.

China Bans Windows 8 From Government Computers After Leaked Warning By Germany About Backdoor To NSA

SaaR KaL 17:34 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

EURGBP getting ready to correct
Daily Data
1 week 0.8120

1 Month 0.8105

3 Month 0.8191

12 Mth 0.8249
==
Hourly Data
5 hrs 0.8083

24 hrs 0.8099

3 days 0.8112

10 days 0.8093

Livingston nh 17:33 GMT May 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

See if Stox use Fed Minutes to go a little wobbly

SaaR KaL 17:26 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

AUDUSD Longs
from 0.8971

in a day or 2
is great for 0.96 area coming month

dc CB 17:23 GMT May 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

today's revrepo ...AKA Stox R Up
Wm Dudley's Collateral dump

$220.722 bln

SaaR KaL 17:18 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

EURUSD
Range next day
1.3735 1.3629
I think Long around now is a good idea

Livingston nh 17:06 GMT May 21, 2014
SHARE CAFE DAILY RBA Warns Economy To Slow

Further to Aussie slowdown - LINK

Livingston nh 16:54 GMT May 21, 2014
Two-way risk or just blowing smoke?

Seems to indicate NO QE - negative interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) puts ECB in test case opposite Fed which is paying above mkt rate // increased commentary about exit strategies ECB, BoE and Fed, especially if a major CB goes to negative rates, will increase volatility in FI and affected currencies

If Fed or BoE have to hike rates or if the Taper starts to bite the EM again FX may become the lead sled dog again

GVI Forex 16:35 GMT May 21, 2014
Two-way risk or just blowing smoke?
Reply   
5/21/2014 12:01:00 PM
(EU) ECB's Weidmann: reiterates not in favor of targeted exchange rate; no decision made yet on June meeting; still unclear the ECB needs to act in June
- Interest rates are at core of our policy instruments, thus will look first at using rates if we decide to act.
- Reiterates sees no signs of deflation .
- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 16:33 GMT May 21, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Few expect any earthquakes in this afternoon's FOMC minutes. Most observers are looking for clues about how the Fed intends to use its new tools, such as reverse repos and interest on reserves, to help manage the process of exiting extraordinary policy. FOMC comments so far have suggested the process is in the early stages

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: See-Saw Markets on the Upswing

SaaR KaL 16:25 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar

SIlver

Daily Data
1 week 19.4330

1 Month 19.0136

3 Month 20.4163

12 Mth 16.2464

====

Gold

Daily Data
1 week 1,294.7097

1 Month 1,285.4481

3 Month 1,381.8663

12 Month 1,107.2738

Haifa ac 15:59 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar

Sort of FED HOME RUN?

dc CB 15:46 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar



Yellen-- no comment

GVI Forex john 15:45 GMT May 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



  • Late European trade markets are taking increasingly a "risk-on "posture.
  • Yields in prime fixed income markets are higher as equities rise. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have fallen sharply..
  • Equities rallied modestly in the Far East earlier. European bourses are now broadly higher.  U.S. equities are currently trading higher across the board.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.54%, +3bp.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:41 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
Reply   
EURUSD re-test of 200 day mva (currently 1.3635) is inevitable this week

USDJPY low is in and 102 is now at risk

This is not a forecast but a risk that you can agree or disagree with.

You can also post your own scenario and ask for an agree or disagree

GVI Forex 15:30 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar

Yellen-- no comments on economy or policy...

GVI Forex john 15:09 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

10-yr 2.545% as equities rally.

GVI Forex john 15:06 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar

Fed Minutes @18:00 GMT should be dovish. We expect no new ground to be broken.

SaaR KaL 15:06 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

USDCHF
5 hrs 0.8970

24 hrs 0.8921

3 days 0.8931

10 days 0.9019
will short some
0.8950 area

GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar

Yellen At 15:30 GMT. We do not expect anything market-moving from her. This is not the venue,

GVI Forex john 15:02 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar

Obama talking about Veteran's Administration, as expected. He MIGHT take questions after his remarks.

SaaR KaL 14:41 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

correction
TGT eurUSD
>1.3690

SaaR KaL 14:41 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

eurusd longs from 1.3650 to 1.3610
tgt > 1.3890

GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT May 21, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -7.200 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +0.947 prev.
Gasoline: +0.970 vs. 0.000 exp vs. -0.770 prev.
Distillates:+3.400 vs. 0.000 exp vs. -1.120 prev.
Cap/Util: 88.70% vs. +89.20% exp vs. 88.80% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

SaaR KaL 14:32 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

out cable shorts
5 hrs 1.6908

24 hrs 1.6885

3 days 1.6876

10 days 1.6756

want to long from 1.6838 till 1.6820
tgt > 1.68890

SaaR KaL 14:28 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

Gold
will buy from 1282
till 1274
5 hrs 1,286.4108

24 hrs 1,293.9930

3 days 1,289.3831

10 days 1,293.9846

GVI Forex john 14:26 GMT May 21, 2014
Chart Points -- Forex Heat Map

Bottom line: EUR is mostly weak on its European Crosses (except CHF). Also lots of red vs. AUD and CAD.

GVI Forex john 14:25 GMT May 21, 2014
Chart Points -- Forex Heat Map
Reply   
NEW Heat Map (Green EUR Spot above/Red EUR Spot below)

EUR Crosses Moving Averages...





SaaR KaL 14:21 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

shorts USDJPY
tgt < 100.98

SaaR KaL 14:15 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

any doing shorts GBPJPY and NDX?

HK [email protected] 14:07 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar



Probably he will say, that the US is going back to a gold backed USD!

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar

I believe its on the Veteran's Administration -- purely domestic

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT May 21, 2014
May 2014 Consumer Confidence prelim
Reply   




ALERT
-7.1 vs. -8.2 vs. -8.6 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Paris ib 13:56 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar

Does Mr. O have a topic?

GVI Forex john 13:51 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
Reply   
Obama to speak at around 14:45 GMT

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:40 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Outside day in E URUSD

USDJPY still some distance from Tuesday's 101.60 high

NY JM 13:31 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

1.3647 (recent low) and 1.3635 (200 day mva) at risk as long as below 1.3678-80 much depends on whether there is an invisible hand defending 1.3645

Livingston nh 13:27 GMT May 21, 2014
Fed Vice Chair
Reply   
Finally Senate to vote (unless it decides to wait) on Fischer - LINK

Stein is leaving the Fed so the Board is still short by 4 members (3 if Powell gets reconfirmed)

Amman wfakhoury 13:26 GMT May 21, 2014
New PC for forex trader
Reply   


This is the suggested computer for forex trader.

GVI Forex john 12:59 GMT May 21, 2014
U.K. Retail Sales Data Much Stronger than Expected. No Surprises from BOJ or BOE.

FWIW the Nikkei closed at 14,042 , -13 LOD was 13,964.

Livingston nh 12:57 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

EUR/USD is back below daily 144 ema (1.3678) that has been a long term support (two dips below last week but snapped back to close above) - trade 3 strikes and you're out for a close below - target 1.3546, the level of daily 233 ema and weekly 55 ema

EUR/GBP close at these levels would be lowest since Dec 2012 -- has to be a factor for MPC but sell this for s/t this week target .8014

GVI Forex john 12:50 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

The sensitivity of the Nikkei to the USDJPY should not be overlooked. The government tends to be a bit slow to act, but expect some push-back from Tokyo if the USDJPY decides to test the psychological 100.00 line.

GVI Forex 12:46 GMT May 21, 2014
U.K. Retail Sales Data Much Stronger than Expected. No Surprises from BOJ or BOE.

Bank comments (from Tokyo):
All in all, Kuroda didn't give any indication of the next easing. But the Nikkei is now declining below 14,000, a politically important level. The focus will move to the Abe government.

Probably the first official sign of the political pressure on the BoJ will emerge in the monthly economic report by the cabinet office which has a great economist team. The office will release the updated one this Friday (May 23). this would be the focus for the time being.

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Interesting, The S&P futures came down to 101.00 in USDJPY on my overlay chart. At that point, USDJPY popped above 101.00 and the S&P traded higher. Now the two are back in their "normal" lock-step. Hard to figure. Its like these markets are just a succession of set-ups?

London Chris 12:29 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Kal, there should be sellers at 1.37. I am more interested in your 10 day call.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:18 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Suggest reading my

Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:37 GMT 05/21/2014 - My Profile

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:07 GMT May 21, 2014
Do You Believe in (Trading) Miracles?
Reply   
This article (I just posted it) is worth reading for all traders. Turned out to be a timely one.

Ask Your Advocate: Do You Believe in (Trading) Miracles?

SaaR KaL 11:02 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

I suggest you long
EURAUD
5 hrs 1.4833

24 hrs 1.4914

3 days 1.4842

10 days 1.4456

1.4800 Entry is perfect

GVI Forex john 11:02 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

FWIW

USDJPY 200-day average now 101.28 spot USDJPY now BELOW all moving averages 5 thru 200 days. Price behavior supportive of chatter that some central banks have been transferring funds out of EUR and into JPY. Perhaps this is anticipation of negative EZ interest rates in just over two weeks?

SaaR KaL 11:00 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

If you are short EURUSD
I suggest you cover
wont do you much
5 hrs 1.3713

24 hrs 1.3697

3 days 1.3702

10 days 1.3569

GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:37 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Trading spot using crosses for a clue (example)

Market is shunning the EUR ahead of the ECB and AUD is becoming suspect but market is not rushing into USD - GBP and JPY are the cross beneficiaries.

When those currencies find support vs. the USD, the weaklings tend to get hit.

GVI Forex john 10:34 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

After USDJPY dipped below 101.00 (currently holding as resistance) , the S&P followed the pair lower but since has been working steadily higher. This has set up a clear divergence between the two and perhaps a tug-o-war?


The DOW and S&P mini futures are both higher.

Note also the 1.3700 level in EURUSD remains magnetic.

The GBP is up vs. the EUR following blow-out (strong) UK retail sales data earlier. In the current environment, we have wonder how far the GBP can diverge from the EUR?

Paris ib 10:25 GMT May 21, 2014
Mysterious Belgian Purchases
Reply   
"There is evidence of mismatch in Federal Reserve financial statements."

Where are the forensic accountants when you need them?

Belgium Treasuries and Covert QE

GVI Forex john 10:24 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Reply   
WEDNESDAY 21 May 2014

Eurozone:
- - Consumer Confidence not a market mover, but a useful sentiment barometer.

United States-
- - FRB Chair Yellen: Commencement Address at NYU. Don't expect much. This is not the venue.
- - FOMC Minutes: Further detail on the April 29-30 policy decision.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:24 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

As posted on GVIForex

Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVIForex Jay Meisler 09:49 GMT 05/21/2014 - My Profile
- EURUSD traded 1.3700 for 7th say in a row. remains below 1.3735 but trapped within 1.3647-1.3735. YUpsiude capped unless 1.3735 is tajen out (includes 100 dayt mva).

- GBPUSD again outperforming, Paused below 1.6933 = 76.4% of 1.6996-1.6729

USDJPY below its 200 day mva (), in what remains a reluctant dip. Major support is at 100.73 = Feb 4 low. This a level the bulls will want to defend. if firmly broken, market goes for 100.

SaaR KaL 10:01 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

EURJPY
5 hrs 138.2668

24 hrs 138.3772

3 days 138.3256

10 days 137.5215
===
gbpjpy
5 hrs 170.2574

24 hrs 170.3812

3 days 170.2499

10 days 169.8186

GVI Forex john 09:12 GMT May 21, 2014
Chart Points- Daily Pivots
Reply   
Basis Tuesday 24-hour ranges...





Hong Kong AceTrader 09:11 GMT May 21, 2014
Acetrader May 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

21 May 2014 08:37GMT

GBP/USD - 1.6913... BoE releases its meeting minutes, which state 'MPC voted 9-0 to keep rates unchanged; for some MPC members, decision on whether to raise rates becoming more balanced; all members agree need to see more evidence of slack reducing before raising rates; considerable uncertainty n range of views about BoE's 1-1.5% of GDP estimate of slack; cud be argued that the more gradual the intended rise in rates, the earlier BoE needs to start; but premature rise in rates cud also risk a substantial cost in lost output; raising rates slowly carries greater risk of housing mkt imbalances, but mitigating this is FPC role; sterling above top of post-crisis range, mkt contacts note due to stronger growth in UK than elsewhere; nearly all sterling appreciation likely to be passed into lower prices, but firms may instead increase profit margins.'

Cable edges higher ahead of Asian lunch break in tandem with eur/usd. Sterling was bot broadly at European open on Tue as st specs were looking for U.K. Apr inflation data to show a small increase. Although cable briefly jumped to 1.6870 (Reuters) after CPI ticked higher abv prev. reading of 1.6% to 1.8% (consensus was 1.7%), however, profit-taking quickly emerged, price retreated to 1.6822 at NY open n ratcheted higher to 1.6849 b4 moving narrowly in NY afternoon.

Although Asian traders are on the sideline as market keenly awaits the release of BoE MPC minutes n the Apr retail sales, the retail sales data are expected to show strg growth (MoM ex-auto forecast is 0.5% n YoY ex-auto is 5.4% vs prev. readings of -0.4% %& 4.2% resp.), so cable is likely to maintain a biddish tone into the figure n we may well see a repeat of y'day's price action i.e briefly higher n then coming off after the release.
Bids are noted at 1.6830-20 n more below with stops reported below 1.6800. Offers are tipped at 1.6860/70 n more abv with some stops touted abv 1.6900.

GVI Forex Blog 09:09 GMT May 21, 2014
U.K. Retail Sales Data Much Stronger than Expected. No Surprises from BOJ or BOE.
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: EZ- Consumer Confidence

April U.K. ex-fuel Retail Sales data saw the largest monthly increase since 2004. The data were helped by the late Easter holiday this year, but the data were far better than forecast. The GBP rallied on the news. Key Bank of England monetary policy votes were both unanimous in favor of an unchanged policy. Markets were looking for any signs of developing dissent, but there were not. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen. .

U.K. Retail Sales Data Much Stronger than Expected. No Surprises from BOJ or BOE.

nw kw 09:08 GMT May 21, 2014
April 2014 UK Retail Sales

GBP up strongly before numbers were out, xaugbp -f market

GVI Forex john 08:47 GMT May 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • In early European trade markets are taking a generally neutral posture.
  • Prime fixed income markets are mixed with no clear pattern evident. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have moved  relatively even higher.
  • Equities rallied modestly in the Far East, but European bourses are slightly lower  U.S. equity futures are currently trading higher.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.51%, 0bp.

GVI Forex john 08:43 GMT May 21, 2014
April 2014 UK Retail Sales



U.K. Retail Sales data up strongly helped by a late Easter. GBPUSD up.

SaaR KaL 08:34 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

short Cable
tgt 1.6871

GVI Forex john 08:34 GMT May 21, 2014
April 2014 UK Retail Sales

GBP up strongly on much better than forecast retail sales data.

GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT May 21, 2014
April 2014 UK Retail Sales
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

mm: +1.30% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
yy: +6.90% vs. +5.10% exp. vs. +4.20% prev.

x-fuel
Mfg mm: +1.80% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. -0.40% (+0.40%)prev.
Mfg yy: +7.70% vs. +5.40% exp. vs. +4.20% (+4.90%)prev.


RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT May 21, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Rates:Tighten = 0 Unchanged =9 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0
Forward Guidance: favor= 8 Against= 1

Bank of England





TTN: Live News Special Offer

Cambridge Joe 08:01 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

CB 21:42 GMT 05/20/2014

CB thanks. Duly noted, etched on my memory !

SaaR KaL 07:52 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

EURAUD
5 hrs 1.4850

24 hrs 1.4922

3 days 1.4817

10 days 1.4450
===
1 week 1.4710

1 Month 1.4773

3 Month 1.4814

12 Mth 1.6898

SaaR KaL 07:49 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

SP500
5 hrs 1,872.7415

24 hrs 1,866.1312

3 days 1,870.2345

10 days 1,886.9947

SaaR KaL 07:43 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

USDJPY
1 week 100.9588

1 Month 101.5111

3 Month 101.6042

12 Mth 109.5645
===
5 hrs 100.9352

24 hrs 101.1134

3 days 100.9503

10 days 101.3308

SaaR KaL 07:26 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

Cable
5 hrs 1.6844

24 hrs 1.6855

3 days 1.6859

10 days 1.6762

eurusd

5 hrs 1.3712

24 hrs 1.3693

3 days 1.3701

10 days 1.3573

SaaR KaL 07:23 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

Using the Same thing for hourly data

NZDUSD
5 hrs 0.8560

24 hrs 0.8519

3 days 0.8566

10 days 0.8620

AUDUSD
5 hrs 0.9232

24 hrs 0.9175

3 days 0.9246

10 days 0.9391

london red 07:18 GMT May 21, 2014
cable
Reply   
retail sales are expected to be boosted year on year due to late easter effect. however brc sales released earlier painted a different picture, with sales lower.
these two dont always go hand in hand but does suggest some caution as it appears market is set for a big number.
re mpc minutes, the risk is of disappointment and a 9-0 print, with little talk of dissent but continued talk of working through slack. admittedly recent data which the mpc was not privy to have been a bit softer than at the time of the meet, but its not likely to have been enough at the time to sway from the to date theme.

SaaR KaL 06:20 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

AUDCAD
1 week 1.0091

1 Month 1.0135

3 Mont 1.0613

12 Mth 0.9496

Syd 06:14 GMT May 21, 2014
Belt-tightening ahead as real wages fall
Reply   
Families are expected to cut spending further as wage growth plunges to its lowest in 17 years.
Households were already preparing to tighten their wallets following the Abbott government's tough budget, which led to consumer confidence falling at its fastest rate since before the financial crisis.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/belttightening-ahead-as-real-wages-fall-20140521-38obu.html#ixzz32KOlHUqo

Westpac's consumer sentiment index released on Wednesday pointed to further evidence of a knock to confidence, with its reading falling 6.8 per cent to 92.9 – the lowest since August 2011 and before the Reserve Bank began cutting interest rates. Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/belttightening-ahead-as-real-wages-fall-20140521-38obu.html#ixzz32KOt4ogG

SaaR KaL 06:00 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

EURUSD
1 week 1.3640

1 Month 1.3807

3 Mont 1.3969

12 Mth 1.4177

cable
1 week 1.6771

1 Month 1.7024

3 Mont 1.7047

12 Mth 1.7180

GL

SaaR KaL 05:59 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

AUDJPY

1 week 93.7061

1 Month 94.8535

3 Mont 95.7950

12 Mth 91.8902

SaaR KaL 05:53 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc

NZDUSD
1 week 0.8595

1 Month 0.8622

3 Mont 0.8868

12 Mth 0.8441

will buy on dips

SaaR KaL 05:52 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
Reply   
Worked a Slightly easier way to trade comfortably
Periods Ahead Expectation

AUDUSD Exp Values

I think we can easily Buy it with no problem


1 week 0.9273

1 Month 0.9341

3 Mont 0.9428

12 Mth 0.8372

GVI Forex Blog 04:57 GMT May 21, 2014 Reply   
(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) POLICY STATEMENT: REITERATES TO INCREASE MONETARY BASE AT ANNUAL PACE OF ¥60-70T (AS EXPECTED); RAISES ASSESSMENT ON CAPITAL EXPENDITURE (CAPEX) >- (JP) JAPAN APR MERCHANDISE

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: BOJ maintains neutral stance with a higher assessment of CAPEX and lower view on public investment - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:43 GMT May 21, 2014 Reply   
BOJ keeps the monetary policy unchanged which really didn’t affect the markets. Except

Morning Briefing : 21-May-2014 -0342 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:43 GMT May 21, 2014
AceTrader May 21: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY
Reply   
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on USD/JPY - 101.27

Update Time: 21 May 2014 01:24 GMT


Dollar retreated after meeting renewed selling at 101.60 in Asian morning on Tuesday suggests the recovery from Monday's fresh 3-1/2 month high at 101.10 has possibly ended and erratic decline from April's high at 104.13 should resume for weakness to said level, below would encourage for a re-test of this year's low at 100.76 (February).

On the upside, only above 101.83 (being 38.2% are of intermediate decline from 103.02) would signal temporary low is made and risk stronger bounce to 102.12 and 102.36 resistance.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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