nw kw 23:51 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
EUROZONE MANUFACTURING DATA COULD FUEL QE SPECULATION
The EURUSD declined sharply on Wednesday as Janet Yellen took the stage, and look set to log a daily close below key long term support at 1.3661. For a while now we have been watching this level as on that could possibly represent a completion of the three month double top, and today�s action could be the catalyst behind a short entry with an initial downside target at 1.3593. Don�t be surprised if the pair corrects to retest broken support short term, but look for miss in tomorrow�s PMI releases to strengthen it as in term resistance and validate the aforementioned 1.3593 target.
GVI Forex 23:47 GMT May 21, 2014
In the News BoJ
Reply
5/21/2014 7:25:40 PM
(JP) Nomura: sees BOJ may boost easing in Oct v July prior forecast - financial press
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVIForex Jay Meisler 23:23 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply
Let's try it with specific currencies so it is easier to pick out the topic.
Agree or disagree.
EURUSD will not extend its 7 day pattern around 1.37 today. The best chance of this happening is if flash PMIs exceed forecasts and EURUSD pops up on the data. This would be an opportunity to sell unless it gets back above 1.3735. Currently, 1.3688 blocks return to 1.37.
By the way, it did reach an initial target of 1.3635 (low 1.3633) = 200 day mva where it bounced from.
nw kw 23:16 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
My question is whether we have seen a short-term bottom or a pause enroute to .8990-00
aud tops in April and September=sell aud
SaaR KaL 23:05 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
Housing Index USA
Lookin great
^hGX
Weekly Data
5 weeks 191.9657
22 weeks 220.8438
60 weeks 257.8572
200 weeks 148.9767
dc CB 22:59 GMT May 21, 2014
Endlessly wittering on about the USD and the way the CBs collude.
Summer Starts in the USA...Memorial Day Weekend.
Thurs is more or less that last trading day of this week...Friday is Get TF out of Town day...Next week has 4 trading days including portfoilio shuffling and the Window Dressing Day.
Don't expect 'da boys' to let Stox crash and give Bad Thoughts to the holiday beach goers.
Could pop above 1900 SnP...esp Friday low-no volume day afternoon. Kill The Shorts babeeeee.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 22:59 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
kw, suggestion. It pays not to rush through your posts and to take a little extra time to make sure we can understand what you are saying. Sometimes you seem to be in a rush and too much shorthand and abbreviations make it hard to get your point.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 22:55 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
Current breakdown level was .9325 so market trades bearish while below it but a bit too far for a stop.
On the other side, I pay notice when a pivotal big figure holds (e.g. .9200) so will focus on .9250 initially as it sets the tone while within .9200-.9300
My question is whether we have seen a short-term bottom or a pause enroute to .8990-00
nw kw 22:36 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
Wednesday low was .9205//Jay isn't this a liquidating move if it is .930 is old pivot /and not much eur/aud retrace/sell under 40
nw kw 22:22 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
xaujpy starting to pull up poss weak yen starting for its a bit early start for yen gold on its own!!!!!!!!
nw kw 22:15 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
Jay Meisler you trade up to the news what approach are you looking for
GVIForex Jay Meisler 21:32 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
Wednesday low was .9205. You will find that when you pose a trading scenario or levels to watch in advance, it can lead to trading ideas. At a minimum it should create some lively discussion.
GVI Forex Blog 21:04 GMT May 21, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply
Sentiment improved overnight. There were no surprises from either the FOMC minutes or Fed Chair Yellen's speech (which refrained from monetary policy comment). There was a brief knee-jerk bounce in US interest rates (and dip in equities) following the minutes which revealed a range of tools to normalise policy were discussed, but further reading showed nothing was decided and markets settled
Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts
GVI Forex john 20:58 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
THURSDAY 22 May 2014
U.K.:
.- - GDP. The second revision to
1Q14 is not likely to be changed much. Unlikely to be a market mover.
Eurozone:
- - flash May PMI's. Always
closely followed, but we have not been seeing a reliable pass through
of the PMI sentiment recently to hard data.
United States:
- - Existing Homes Sales�
the most important U.S. housing statistics. It is seen improving.
Canada:
- - Retail Sales Key Canadian
statistic, but it tend to be rather old. Seen weaker,
GVIForex Jay Meisler 20:46 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
AUD: News and price action suggest a market turning bearish BUT
Is .9200 a short-term bottom?
Or is the market headed for .8990-00.
Agree or disagree? Feel free to express your views on either side as they will lead to trading ideas and scenarios.
GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
May 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 22.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP, CA- Retail
Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas
- Far East: CN- HSBC PMI.
- Europe: EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP.
- North America: CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas.
GVI Forex john 20:38 GMT May 21, 2014
Chart Points- EUR Moving Averages
Note the bottom of the first two columns.
EURUSD 200-day average (1.3637) tested (LOD 1.3633)
EURJPY 200-day average (138.16) tested (LOD 138.16)
below 200-day average confirms a EUR L-T downtrend.
london red 19:24 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
imo its all about valuations. money holds no prejudice, you buy cheap and sell high. there are a few markets you can put money to work in based on that one argument but all have drawbacks/risks as of now, so valuations may need to get surpressed a bit further before they are tempting enough possibly. i am involved in eastern europe and i can say the while the bottom is probably in, its going to take a year or two before hot money returns. but this time think you will need to seperate eastern europe, as not all states have solid fundamentals. i am hoping this ukraine standoff gives an opportunity to enter at prices not seen for 10 years. we are still some way off, but if we get there buying at 10 year lows/spreads rarely fails to pay off.
as for the majors, you really cant look past the uk/gbp, although the mpc is doing its best to tell you otherwise.
london red 19:00 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
so nh, in your view, does that lead to some dollar outflows?
cable. fib at 95. if cant capped think we look at upper bolli tomorrow, with next fib at 6939 before
dc CB 19:00 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Mr. Bernanke�s actions were courageous and �unprecedented in ambition and scope,� Ms. Yellen told a swirl of thousands of purple-robed graduates and their families who were gathered in the stands of Yankee Stadium for the ceremony.
�He faced relentless criticism, personal threats, and the certainty that history would judge him harshly if he were wrong,� she said. �But he stood up for what he believed was right and necessary. Ben Bernanke�s intelligence and knowledge served him well as chairman.�
At N.Y.U., Yellen Praises Her Fed Predecessor
Livingston nh 18:52 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
The main takeaway from the Minutes is that Ben's assurance that the exit from the Money Swamp would be "no problem" has morphed into a plea for "a Map, any Map" -- they went into this with neither plan nor concern for consequences so they prefer to stand still "for an extended period" and try to convince the market that this is a plan
This release should not fill anyone with confidence
GVIForex Jay Meisler 18:50 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
We would like to build this thread as it will encourage views on both sides.
EURUSD: After an invisible hand shows up around 1.3635 (200 day mva) what are the odds 1.3700, which has traded in each of the past 7 days, is seen before a re-test.
USDJPY: Has it seen a bottom?
GVI Forex Blog 18:21 GMT May 21, 2014
No Surprises from Fed Minutes. Strong U.K. Retail Sales. BOJ and BOE in Line
Reply
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP, CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas
The latest Fed policy meeting minutes were dovish, as widely anticipated. They reinforced the common view that the central Bank is not in any rush to raise interest rates.
Fed he April U.K. ex-fuel Retail Sales data saw the largest monthly increase since 2004. The data were helped by the late Easter holiday this year,
No Surprises from Fed Minutes. Strong U.K. Retail Sales. BOJ and BOE in Line
london red 18:11 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
yen while below 70 then downside still in play. above there 10220. but you have to still sell blips on this one until fed changes tune
london red 18:09 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
as you say dovish sounding but not really in line with trend of day hence the temp paralysis.
hourly tails on euro needs to be taken out or risk of 137+
dc CB 18:06 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
FOMC PARTICIPANTS FAVORED MORE TESTING OF FED POLICY TOOLS, PLAN FURTHER REVIEW AT UPCOMING MEETINGS -
NY JM 18:05 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Minutes sound dovish but FX market is not sure how to react.
USDJPY tests yesterday's 101.60 high (correlating with equities), above it would be an outside day.
GVI Forex john 18:05 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
May 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 22.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP, CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas
- Far East: CN- HSBC PMI.
- Europe: EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg & SVC PMIs, GB- GDP.
- North America: CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas.
GVI Forex john 18:03 GMT May 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on April 29-30, 2014.
The minutes for each regularly scheduled meeting of the Committee ordinarily are made available three weeks after the day of the policy decision and subsequently are published in the Board's Annual Report. The descriptions of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes are based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting.
FOMC Policy Minutes
GVIForex Jay Meisler 17:38 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
There still seems to an invisible hand defending 1.3645 (50% of 1.3294-1.3996).
dc CB 17:37 GMT May 21, 2014
Windows 8 users
Reply
Windows 8 with TPM 2.0 allows Microsoft to control the computer remotely through a built-in backdoor.
. Its purpose is Digital Rights Management and computer security. The system decides what software was legally obtained and allows it to run; and it disables other software, such as bootlegged copies or viruses. The process is governed by Windows, and through remote access, by Microsoft.
What is new about TPM 2.0 is that it�s activated by default when the computer boots up. The user cannot turn it off. Microsoft decides what software can run on the computer, and the user cannot influence it. Windows governs TPM 2.0. What Microsoft does remotely is not visible to the user. Users of Windows 8 with TPM 2.0 surrender control over their machines the moment they turn it on.
China Bans Windows 8 From Government Computers After Leaked Warning By Germany About Backdoor To NSA
SaaR KaL 17:34 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
EURGBP getting ready to correct
Daily Data
1 week 0.8120
1 Month 0.8105
3 Month 0.8191
12 Mth 0.8249
==
Hourly Data
5 hrs 0.8083
24 hrs 0.8099
3 days 0.8112
10 days 0.8093
Livingston nh 17:33 GMT May 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
See if Stox use Fed Minutes to go a little wobbly
SaaR KaL 17:26 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
AUDUSD Longs
from 0.8971
in a day or 2
is great for 0.96 area coming month
dc CB 17:23 GMT May 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
today's revrepo ...AKA Stox R Up
Wm Dudley's Collateral dump
$220.722 bln
SaaR KaL 17:18 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
EURUSD
Range next day
1.3735 1.3629
I think Long around now is a good idea
Livingston nh 16:54 GMT May 21, 2014
Two-way risk or just blowing smoke?
Seems to indicate NO QE - negative interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) puts ECB in test case opposite Fed which is paying above mkt rate // increased commentary about exit strategies ECB, BoE and Fed, especially if a major CB goes to negative rates, will increase volatility in FI and affected currencies
If Fed or BoE have to hike rates or if the Taper starts to bite the EM again FX may become the lead sled dog again
GVI Forex 16:35 GMT May 21, 2014
Two-way risk or just blowing smoke?
Reply
5/21/2014 12:01:00 PM
(EU) ECB's Weidmann: reiterates not in favor of targeted exchange rate; no decision made yet on June meeting; still unclear the ECB needs to act in June
- Interest rates are at core of our policy instruments, thus will look first at using rates if we decide to act.
- Reiterates sees no signs of deflation .
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex Blog 16:33 GMT May 21, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply
Few expect any earthquakes in this afternoon's FOMC minutes. Most observers are looking for clues about how the Fed intends to use its new tools, such as reverse repos and interest on reserves, to help manage the process of exiting extraordinary policy. FOMC comments so far have suggested the process is in the early stages
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: See-Saw Markets on the Upswing
SaaR KaL 16:25 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
SIlver
Daily Data
1 week 19.4330
1 Month 19.0136
3 Month 20.4163
12 Mth 16.2464
====
Gold
Daily Data
1 week 1,294.7097
1 Month 1,285.4481
3 Month 1,381.8663
12 Month 1,107.2738
Haifa ac 15:59 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
Sort of FED HOME RUN?
dc CB 15:46 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
Yellen-- no comment
GVI Forex john 15:45 GMT May 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
- Late European trade markets are taking increasingly a
"risk-on "posture.
- Yields in prime fixed income
markets are higher as equities rise. Yields on
bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have fallen sharply..
- Equities rallied modestly in the Far East earlier. European
bourses are now broadly higher. U.S. equities are
currently trading higher across the board.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.54%, +3bp.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:41 GMT May 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
Reply
EURUSD re-test of 200 day mva (currently 1.3635) is inevitable this week
USDJPY low is in and 102 is now at risk
This is not a forecast but a risk that you can agree or disagree with.
You can also post your own scenario and ask for an agree or disagree
GVI Forex 15:30 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
Yellen-- no comments on economy or policy...
GVI Forex john 15:06 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
Fed Minutes @18:00 GMT should be dovish. We expect no new ground to be broken.
SaaR KaL 15:06 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
USDCHF
5 hrs 0.8970
24 hrs 0.8921
3 days 0.8931
10 days 0.9019
will short some
0.8950 area
GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
Yellen At 15:30 GMT. We do not expect anything market-moving from her. This is not the venue,
GVI Forex john 15:02 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
Obama talking about Veteran's Administration, as expected. He MIGHT take questions after his remarks.
SaaR KaL 14:41 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
eurusd longs from 1.3650 to 1.3610
tgt > 1.3890
SaaR KaL 14:32 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
out cable shorts
5 hrs 1.6908
24 hrs 1.6885
3 days 1.6876
10 days 1.6756
want to long from 1.6838 till 1.6820
tgt > 1.68890
SaaR KaL 14:28 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
Gold
will buy from 1282
till 1274
5 hrs 1,286.4108
24 hrs 1,293.9930
3 days 1,289.3831
10 days 1,293.9846
GVI Forex john 14:26 GMT May 21, 2014
Chart Points -- Forex Heat Map
Bottom line: EUR is mostly weak on its European Crosses (except CHF). Also lots of red vs. AUD and CAD.
SaaR KaL 14:15 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
any doing shorts GBPJPY and NDX?
HK RF@ 14:07 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
Probably he will say, that the US is going back to a gold backed USD!
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
I believe its on the Veteran's Administration -- purely domestic
Paris ib 13:56 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
Does Mr. O have a topic?
GVI Forex john 13:51 GMT May 21, 2014
Calendar
Reply
Obama to speak at around 14:45 GMT
NY JM 13:31 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
1.3647 (recent low) and 1.3635 (200 day mva) at risk as long as below 1.3678-80 much depends on whether there is an invisible hand defending 1.3645
Livingston nh 13:27 GMT May 21, 2014
Fed Vice Chair
Reply
Finally Senate to vote (unless it decides to wait) on Fischer - LINK
Stein is leaving the Fed so the Board is still short by 4 members (3 if Powell gets reconfirmed)
Livingston nh 12:57 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
EUR/USD is back below daily 144 ema (1.3678) that has been a long term support (two dips below last week but snapped back to close above) - trade 3 strikes and you're out for a close below - target 1.3546, the level of daily 233 ema and weekly 55 ema
EUR/GBP close at these levels would be lowest since Dec 2012 -- has to be a factor for MPC but sell this for s/t this week target .8014
GVI Forex john 12:50 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
The sensitivity of the Nikkei to the USDJPY should not be overlooked. The government tends to be a bit slow to act, but expect some push-back from Tokyo if the USDJPY decides to test the psychological 100.00 line.
GVI Forex 12:46 GMT May 21, 2014
U.K. Retail Sales Data Much Stronger than Expected. No Surprises from BOJ or BOE.
Bank comments (from Tokyo):
All in all, Kuroda didn't give any indication of the next easing. But the Nikkei is now declining below 14,000, a politically important level. The focus will move to the Abe government.
Probably the first official sign of the political pressure on the BoJ will emerge in the monthly economic report by the cabinet office which has a great economist team. The office will release the updated one this Friday (May 23). this would be the focus for the time being.
GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Interesting, The S&P futures came down to 101.00 in USDJPY on my overlay chart. At that point, USDJPY popped above 101.00 and the S&P traded higher. Now the two are back in their "normal" lock-step. Hard to figure. Its like these markets are just a succession of set-ups?
GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:18 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Suggest reading my
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:37 GMT 05/21/2014 - My Profile
SaaR KaL 11:02 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
I suggest you long
EURAUD
5 hrs 1.4833
24 hrs 1.4914
3 days 1.4842
10 days 1.4456
1.4800 Entry is perfect
GVI Forex john 11:02 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
FWIW
USDJPY 200-day average now 101.28 spot USDJPY now BELOW all moving averages 5 thru 200 days. Price behavior supportive of chatter that some central banks have been transferring funds out of EUR and into JPY. Perhaps this is anticipation of negative EZ interest rates in just over two weeks?
SaaR KaL 11:00 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
If you are short EURUSD
I suggest you cover
wont do you much
5 hrs 1.3713
24 hrs 1.3697
3 days 1.3702
10 days 1.3569
GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:37 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Trading spot using crosses for a clue (example)
Market is shunning the EUR ahead of the ECB and AUD is becoming suspect but market is not rushing into USD - GBP and JPY are the cross beneficiaries.
When those currencies find support vs. the USD, the weaklings tend to get hit.
GVI Forex john 10:34 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
After USDJPY dipped below 101.00 (currently holding as resistance) , the S&P followed the pair lower but since has been working steadily higher. This has set up a clear divergence between the two and perhaps a tug-o-war?
The DOW and S&P mini futures are both higher.
Note also the 1.3700 level in EURUSD remains magnetic.
The GBP is up vs. the EUR following blow-out (strong) UK retail sales data earlier. In the current environment, we have wonder how far the GBP can diverge from the EUR?
GVI Forex john 10:24 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Reply
WEDNESDAY 21 May 2014
Eurozone:
- - Consumer Confidence not a
market mover, but a useful sentiment barometer.
United States-
- - FRB Chair Yellen: Commencement
Address at NYU. Don't expect much. This is not the venue.
- - FOMC Minutes: Further detail on
the April 29-30 policy decision.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:24 GMT May 21, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
As posted on GVIForex
Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVIForex Jay Meisler 09:49 GMT 05/21/2014 - My Profile
- EURUSD traded 1.3700 for 7th say in a row. remains below 1.3735 but trapped within 1.3647-1.3735. YUpsiude capped unless 1.3735 is tajen out (includes 100 dayt mva).
- GBPUSD again outperforming, Paused below 1.6933 = 76.4% of 1.6996-1.6729
USDJPY below its 200 day mva (), in what remains a reluctant dip. Major support is at 100.73 = Feb 4 low. This a level the bulls will want to defend. if firmly broken, market goes for 100.
SaaR KaL 10:01 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
EURJPY
5 hrs 138.2668
24 hrs 138.3772
3 days 138.3256
10 days 137.5215
===
gbpjpy
5 hrs 170.2574
24 hrs 170.3812
3 days 170.2499
10 days 169.8186
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:11 GMT May 21, 2014
Acetrader May 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 May 2014 08:37GMT
GBP/USD - 1.6913... BoE releases its meeting minutes, which state 'MPC voted 9-0 to keep rates unchanged; for some MPC members, decision on whether to raise rates becoming more balanced; all members agree need to see more evidence of slack reducing before raising rates; considerable uncertainty n range of views about BoE's 1-1.5% of GDP estimate of slack; cud be argued that the more gradual the intended rise in rates, the earlier BoE needs to start; but premature rise in rates cud also risk a substantial cost in lost output; raising rates slowly carries greater risk of housing mkt imbalances, but mitigating this is FPC role; sterling above top of post-crisis range, mkt contacts note due to stronger growth in UK than elsewhere; nearly all sterling appreciation likely to be passed into lower prices, but firms may instead increase profit margins.'
Cable edges higher ahead of Asian lunch break in tandem with eur/usd. Sterling was bot broadly at European open on Tue as st specs were looking for U.K. Apr inflation data to show a small increase. Although cable briefly jumped to 1.6870 (Reuters) after CPI ticked higher abv prev. reading of 1.6% to 1.8% (consensus was 1.7%), however, profit-taking quickly emerged, price retreated to 1.6822 at NY open n ratcheted higher to 1.6849 b4 moving narrowly in NY afternoon.
Although Asian traders are on the sideline as market keenly awaits the release of BoE MPC minutes n the Apr retail sales, the retail sales data are expected to show strg growth (MoM ex-auto forecast is 0.5% n YoY ex-auto is 5.4% vs prev. readings of -0.4% %& 4.2% resp.), so cable is likely to maintain a biddish tone into the figure n we may well see a repeat of y'day's price action i.e briefly higher n then coming off after the release.
Bids are noted at 1.6830-20 n more below with stops reported below 1.6800. Offers are tipped at 1.6860/70 n more abv with some stops touted abv 1.6900.
GVI Forex john 08:47 GMT May 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
- In early European trade markets are taking a generally
neutral posture.
- Prime fixed income
markets are mixed with no clear pattern evident. Yields on
bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have moved relatively even
higher.
- Equities rallied modestly in the Far East, but European
bourses are slightly lower U.S. equity futures are
currently trading higher.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.51%, 0bp.
GVI Forex john 08:43 GMT May 21, 2014
April 2014 UK Retail Sales
U.K. Retail Sales data up strongly helped by a late Easter. GBPUSD up.
SaaR KaL 07:52 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
EURAUD
5 hrs 1.4850
24 hrs 1.4922
3 days 1.4817
10 days 1.4450
===
1 week 1.4710
1 Month 1.4773
3 Month 1.4814
12 Mth 1.6898
SaaR KaL 07:49 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
SP500
5 hrs 1,872.7415
24 hrs 1,866.1312
3 days 1,870.2345
10 days 1,886.9947
SaaR KaL 07:43 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
USDJPY
1 week 100.9588
1 Month 101.5111
3 Month 101.6042
12 Mth 109.5645
===
5 hrs 100.9352
24 hrs 101.1134
3 days 100.9503
10 days 101.3308
SaaR KaL 07:26 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
Cable
5 hrs 1.6844
24 hrs 1.6855
3 days 1.6859
10 days 1.6762
eurusd
5 hrs 1.3712
24 hrs 1.3693
3 days 1.3701
10 days 1.3573
SaaR KaL 07:23 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
Using the Same thing for hourly data
NZDUSD
5 hrs 0.8560
24 hrs 0.8519
3 days 0.8566
10 days 0.8620
AUDUSD
5 hrs 0.9232
24 hrs 0.9175
3 days 0.9246
10 days 0.9391
london red 07:18 GMT May 21, 2014
cable
Reply
retail sales are expected to be boosted year on year due to late easter effect. however brc sales released earlier painted a different picture, with sales lower.
these two dont always go hand in hand but does suggest some caution as it appears market is set for a big number.
re mpc minutes, the risk is of disappointment and a 9-0 print, with little talk of dissent but continued talk of working through slack. admittedly recent data which the mpc was not privy to have been a bit softer than at the time of the meet, but its not likely to have been enough at the time to sway from the to date theme.
SaaR KaL 06:20 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
AUDCAD
1 week 1.0091
1 Month 1.0135
3 Mont 1.0613
12 Mth 0.9496
SaaR KaL 06:00 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
EURUSD
1 week 1.3640
1 Month 1.3807
3 Mont 1.3969
12 Mth 1.4177
cable
1 week 1.6771
1 Month 1.7024
3 Mont 1.7047
12 Mth 1.7180
GL
SaaR KaL 05:59 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
AUDJPY
1 week 93.7061
1 Month 94.8535
3 Mont 95.7950
12 Mth 91.8902
SaaR KaL 05:53 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
NZDUSD
1 week 0.8595
1 Month 0.8622
3 Mont 0.8868
12 Mth 0.8441
will buy on dips
SaaR KaL 05:52 GMT May 21, 2014
Week Month...etc
Reply
Worked a Slightly easier way to trade comfortably
Periods Ahead Expectation
AUDUSD Exp Values
I think we can easily Buy it with no problem
1 week 0.9273
1 Month 0.9341
3 Mont 0.9428
12 Mth 0.8372
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:43 GMT May 21, 2014
AceTrader May 21: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY
Reply
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on USD/JPY - 101.27
Update Time: 21 May 2014 01:24 GMT
Dollar retreated after meeting renewed selling at 101.60 in Asian morning on Tuesday suggests the recovery from Monday's fresh 3-1/2 month high at 101.10 has possibly ended and erratic decline from April's high at 104.13 should resume for weakness to said level, below would encourage for a re-test of this year's low at 100.76 (February).
On the upside, only above 101.83 (being 38.2% are of intermediate decline from 103.02) would signal temporary low is made and risk stronger bounce to 102.12 and 102.36 resistance.
many more chart points
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.