Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 22:02 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Thanks, Jay..
still holding 3681 short after 1/3 take off at 3654..
stop at 3670.
weekly, monthly rounding down on trend change south..
daily more apparent and i hr..hitting 55 from 1 hr tunnel
with more to come lower according to setup..
but still stop at 3670..wishing not to risk anymore retrace current 3655
it's friday coming and not wishing to think add levels..so
wait and see price action now..
mho
gl gt
GVI Forex john 21:10 GMT May 22, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
Reply
FRIDAY 23 May 2014
Germany:
- - IFO survey. Most
important German sentiment survey and usually a market mover.
Consensus: mixed to weaker
Canada:
- - CPI Seen within the Bank of
Canada target range. Such an outcome would dampen speculation for a
rate cut.
United States:
- - New
Homes Sales. Another piece of the
housing picture. It is seen improving. This is usually not a
market mover.
dc CB 19:55 GMT May 22, 2014
Annnnd, it's gone
Reply
As recently as yesterday, the much-publicized Monterey formation accounted for nearly two-thirds of all technically-recoverable US shale oil resources.
But by this morning? The EIA now estimates these reserves to be 96% lower than it previously claimed.
Yes, you read that right: 96% lower. As in only 4% of the original estimate is now thought to be technically-recoverable at today's prices
you might be wondering just how the EIA got its estimate so badly wrong. The answer is that the EIA relied on a private firm,
The US Shale Oil Miracle Disappears
Syd 19:31 GMT May 22, 2014
TIME FOR A BREAK IN THE POUND?
Reply
The pound has been on a tear as you likely know; for good reason given the surprising rebound in the UK economy. Technically a case can be made the high is in place at 1.6996�time will tell.
CHART VIEW�
dc CB 19:11 GMT May 22, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Risk ... All Clear ....run da Stox to New Highs
What Me Worry?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:46 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
There was chatter of a relief rally after the votes but may have been hope talking.
london red 17:53 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
MEP elections over weekend expected to be disastrous for ruling parties. I would think thats well baked into price, but its no reason to be long euro into the weekend.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 17:33 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Closes the week below the 200 day mva?
Agree or disagree?
GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT May 22, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
- Late in European trading, markets have been drifting
away from a"risk-on" posture to greater neutrality.
- Yields in prime fixed income
markets are steady to mixed as equities stabilizw. Yields on
bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have turned higher after falling
sharply early.
- Equities mostly rallied in the Far East earlier. European
bourses are closing higher. U.S. equies are
currently trading higher.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.55%, +1bp.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns
all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off
(red)
Amman wfakhoury 15:40 GMT May 22, 2014
EURJPY 138.65 confirmed
Reply
138.65 confirmed will be reached any rise above 13900 will return to it.
Just few money for weekend dinner.
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:37 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply
Posted this yesterday when we started this thread
Bottom in place? If so, 102 at risk
GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:01 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Data misses but USD doesn't seem to care.
EURUSD 1.3688 (1.3685-90) has replaced 1.3730-35 as current resistance.
Nice trading Sanibel.
GVI Forex Blog 15:00 GMT May 22, 2014
Reply
May 22, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 23. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- IFO Survey, CA- CPI, US- New Homes Sales
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 23, 2014
GVI Forex john 14:57 GMT May 22, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
May 22, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 23.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- IFO Survey, CA- CPI, US- New Homes Sales
- Far East: No Major Data.
- Europe: DE- IFO Survey.
- North America: CA- CPI, US- New Homes Sales, COT Report.
GVI Forex john 14:10 GMT May 22, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
If you look at the chart below, you can see why Fed Chair Yellen is worried about the housing industry. Keep in mind April data were well after the bad winter. We might have expected a stronger bounce back. Suggests the Fed may be nowhere close to tightening policy.
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 13:17 GMT May 22, 2014
short euro
closed partial at 3654 on 3681 short..stop now at 3670.
gl gt.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:16 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
First stab at creating this thread has been a good one (IMHO) and we can do this for any currency. Good for ongoing discussion and for views to be shared on either side. Goal is to come up with trades and differing opinions are welcomed.
Send us feedback if you want to see more like this.
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 12:39 GMT May 22, 2014
short euro
Reply
on my 3681 short bringing stop to BE with 3655 first take off area.
current 3667
fwiw
GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:24 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
FWIW 5 times in the 1.3680s since bottoming yesterday but not able to get through 1.3688.
Logic says a stops level, price action suggests sellers there.
Agree or disagree?
GVI Forex Blog 12:13 GMT May 22, 2014
Mixed flash Eurozone PMIs, China flash PMI Improves, U.K. GDP Data Unrevised
Reply
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CA- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Mfg PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas
The flash HSBC China PMI recovered in May to just below the "50" expansion level, and the report gave Far East markets a lift.
Flash PMI data from Europe were missed with Manufacturing data falling and Service data mixed, but on balance higher. In general they support the case for ECB ease in two weeks time.
Mixed flash Eurozone PMIs, China flash PMI Improves, U.K. GDP Data Unrevised
Tallinn viies 12:09 GMT May 22, 2014
eurusd
Reply
euro is under bigger pressure this week.
expext euro to test 1,3600/05 during this week. close under 200 day moving average will add even more selling pressure.
still major moves expected next month when ECB must deliver what was promised.
London Misha 11:42 GMT May 22, 2014
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart & test of recent 50% Fib @ 1.3644 & Long MA support.
USDJPY - Down through Long MA with an Outside Day but no Key Reversal. Still closed back over on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - 5th White Soldier on Daily Chart & still travelling gradually higher within combined AP & SP Tines.
USDCHF - Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart & test of Medium MA support.
EURGBP - 2nd Black Crow on Daily Chart& test of Pitchfork congestion support 0.8075-0.8035.
AUDUSD - Bullish Dragonfly Doji as bounces up off (again) Key 50% Fib @ 0.9026 on Daily Chart.
USDINR - 2nd Indecisive Doji on Daily Chart. Tests again 2014 lows!
USDZAR - Bearish Matching & possibly Bearish Dark Cloud Cover on Daily Chart. Close below Long MA after testing & failing at the Downtrend.
USDBRL - Bearish Stick Sandwich but no breakdown through support area 2.1978-2.2027 on Daily Chart.
SaaR KaL 10:44 GMT May 22, 2014
Week Month...etc
will short gold above
1303 today
TGT 1285
shorts audusd at .9350 is no biggy
SaaR KaL 10:37 GMT May 22, 2014
Week Month...etc
Shorts
USDJPY this coming session seems fine for 100.8
probably Asia Next day
EURUSD going back to 1.37ish
syd sf 09:05 GMT May 22, 2014
MAY 2014 China flash HSBC PMI
I have seen some recent revisions to forecasts for the AUD
one camp calls for 9700 cents first then parity.
the other says 95 the top and end of year 8900.
The thing is we are going to see a weakening of the numbers going forward here .. but currency wise it probably depends on how many safe haven flows head this way.
Have no personal view -- I just let the Bots hammer it out.
Hong Kong AceTrader 08:50 GMT May 22, 2014
Acetrader May 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 May 2014 07:55GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3677... News from Reuters, Russia's President Putin says 'Russia ready to expand cooperation with all nations on basis of equality n respect of each other's interests.'
Germany manufacturing PMI came in weaker-than-expected at 52.9 vs forecast of 54.0 whilst services PMI was reported at 56.4, higher than expectation of 54.5.
02:34GMT EUR/USD - 1.3677
The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.3723 on Wed and then tumbled to a fresh 3-month trough at 1.3635 in NY after penetrating last Thur's low at 1.3648, however, short-covering after the release of FOMC minutes lifted the pair to 1.3688 b4 retreating to 1.3673/74 in Asian morning today.
According to minutes of its April 29-30 meeting released on Wednesday in Washington, the Federal Open Market Committee doesn't "face a trade-off between its employment and inflation objectives, and an expansion of aggregate demand would result in further progress relative to both objectives."
Bids are now located at 1.3675-65 n more at 1.3655-50. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 1.3700-05 n 1.3720-30. Trading is likely to be thin until European open. France, Germany n eurozone will release their manufacturing and services PMIs at 07:00GMT, 07:30GMT n 08:00GMT respectively.
bali sja 08:48 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
the more GV participants tilt to 1.30 the merrier, love it to be contrarian
NY JM 08:45 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Then I will ask the sentiment question:
1.30 is more at risk to trade than 1.40 or neither (that would be a depressing thought)
Agree or disagree?
Paris ib 08:43 GMT May 22, 2014
UK GDP-- 1Q14
The Public Sector Borrowing Requirement went through the roof, seriously missed expectations.
GVI Forex john 08:41 GMT May 22, 2014
UK GDP-- 1Q14
Some concern expressed over changes in GDP components.
GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT May 22, 2014
UK GDP-- 1Q14
U.K. Advance 1Q14 GDP unrevised. GBP lower.
GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT May 22, 2014
UK GDP-- 1Q14
U.K. preliminary GDP unrevised.
GVI Forex john 08:28 GMT May 22, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
- Early European trading markets are holding onto
the
general "risk-on" posture from late Wednesday.
- Yields in prime fixed income
markets are steady to higher as equities rise. Yields on
bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have fallen sharply again.
- Equities mostly rallied in the Far East earlier. European
bourses are now higher. U.S. equity futures are
currently trading higher.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.55%, +1bp.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns
all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off
(red)
bali sja 08:27 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
London Chris, because you may not see that level anyway, why short? another reason is i see the upside potential is more than the downside, and thus the positioning, can't be perfect with the entry anyway because that is not my trading style
Paris ib 08:20 GMT May 22, 2014
May 2014 EZ Flash PMI Estimates
Hilariously the Bundesbank has already blamed expected weakness in German economic growth in Q2 on the weather. This time the culprit was warmer weather in Q1.
Paris ib 08:18 GMT May 22, 2014
May 2014 EZ Flash PMI Estimates
I have the impression John that the whole world will shortly be dealing with less than impressive growth so that makes the impact of weak statistics on currencies a moot point. If we all start to slide, as I think we will, then the forecasters go back to the drawing board. It will be interesting to see how the FED squares off a more hawkish stance with a less than impressive economy. So far they have blamed the weather. That won't do in the longer term.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:17 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
No change to the start of this thread that I posted. trading against 1.3688 has worked several times and still blocks 1.37
Let's try it with specific currencies so it is easier to pick out the topic.
Agree or disagree.
EURUSD will not extend its 7 day pattern around 1.37 today. The best chance of this happening is if flash PMIs exceed forecasts and EURUSD pops up on the data. This would be an opportunity to sell unless it gets back above 1.3735. Currently, 1.3688 blocks return to 1.37.
By the way, it did reach an initial target of 1.3635 (low 1.3633) = 200 day mva where it bounced from.
GVI Forex john 08:11 GMT May 22, 2014
May 2014 EZ Flash PMI Estimates
Not a smoking gun, but I would guess the broad dip in manufacturing PMI (trend developing?) should be a concern at the ECB. This pattern is NOT confirmed by Services PMIs.
London Chris 08:10 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Bali is your anti-USD bias based only on charts. Why not be short eurusd if you see it at 1.35-1.36 or lower?
Paris ib 08:00 GMT May 22, 2014
MAY 2014 China flash HSBC PMI
John yes. China counts for the AUD. But right now events in Australia might be more important. And the economy is starting to wobble. Commodity prices look sick and Chinese statistics are a bit suss. So scepticism is warranted.
Paris ib 07:55 GMT May 22, 2014
MAY 2014 China flash HSBC PMI
Only commodity producers should be concerned about what manufacturing in China is doing. It's so ironic. Chinese products / exports reduce GDP and employment in importing countries (most of the rest of the world and certainly the OECD). Chinese trade surpluses are trade deficits in the rest of the world. If China slows it might signal slowing international trade and slowing demand internationally (both happening) but to cheer increased Chinese production and / or Chinese exports is irrational unless you live in China.
GVI Forex 07:32 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
NEWS: GERMANY FLASH MAY MFG PMI 52.9; MNI MEDIAN 54.1;APRIL 54.1
GERMANY FLASH MAY SVC PMI 56.4; MNI MEDIAN 54.5;APRIL 54.7
GERMANY FLASH MAY COMPOSITE PMI 56.1; APRIL 56.1
Paris ib 07:19 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Joe maybe you should step out while whatever is happening runs its course. Time out maybe in the fresh air is priceless.
My take is that the USD/JPY is key. JPY has been the funding currency for everything. The universal view was that USD/JPY was going to 110. It's not. But until the longs are stopped out en masse all those trades remain. I'm watching U.S. yields and USD/JPY. If U.S. yields have bottomed (because the heat got to much for the manipulators or the market gets spooked by talk of covert QE or because Yellen and co move further to the hawkish side of things - in my view likely) then we should go back to normal markets. But we aren't there yet and my fear is we may not get there till after Summer.
Anyway till then if you have to trade trade small. I know I am. Good luck, good trades.
Cambridge Joe 07:08 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
ib thank you.
Apology accepted Joe. Sorry your system isn't working. FWIW I don't think markets are functioning normally at present. And I don't think that's accidental.
We very much share the view that the markets are not behaving normally...... I've had perfect signal a number of times, which previously were proved to be almost perfect, and now.... anything but.
I think the way forward for me is to regard such indications as dynamic pivots and to place buys above and sells below. Until now, I got direction, but time and again get run on to the rocks as it were.
Paris ib 07:01 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Apology accepted Joe. Sorry your system isn't working. FWIW I don't think markets are functioning normally at present. And I don't think that's accidental. Make of it what you will. It can't go on forever but as Keynes pointed out: markets can remain irrational for longer than a person can remain solvent. He was a good trader who sometimes made mistakes.
Soberingly he also said: I work for a Government I despise for ends I think criminal.
So same, old same old, eh?
Cambridge Joe 06:52 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Paris ib 05:38
ib I do apologise, nothing personal. I'd had possibly too much wine and gave expression when it might have been better not to do so.
To my way of thinking, 'Share your trading ideas' would have 'buy' this or 'sell' that as opposed to open ended musings on the questionable state of the world in general.
Bitter and twisted? Well, maybe a bit. My set-up which once allowed pretty decent timings for upcoming moves has gone off beam and I can't seem to fix it.
GVI Forex 06:39 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
EU parliamentary elections are scheduled to begin today, although most countries vote on Sunday. Polls suggest there is likely to be strong support for anti-EU parties in a number of countries, which could fuel concerns about the future of Europe, at least in the near-term. In reality, however, these parties are likely to have little impact on policy.
Today�s May flash� PMI data for the euro area will provide a further insight on the strength activity in the second quarter. We expect modest falls compared with April but the levels should be consi
Lloyds Bank
Paris ib 05:38 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Markets have been very gung ho on the Euro and the ECB obviously doesn't like it. We have European elections and the next ECB meeting to get through before you could look for strength. Yellen and company are sounding more hawkish. So I think you could bide your time. Longer term agree, short term the risk reward is against you.
Joe you sound bitter and twisted. Pointless baiting is really well pointless.
I read somewhere that Japanese reported strong buying of foreign bonds. Obviously not Treasuries. Can't find any release though. Does someone have the data?
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:43 GMT May 22, 2014
AceTrader May 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 May 2014 02:16GMT
USD/JPY - 101.46
Despite yesterday's resumption of decline from April's high at 104.13 to a fresh 3-1/2 month low at 100.81 in European morning due to active cross buying in Japanese yen, subsequent rebound on active short-covering after holding above this year's low at 100.76 (February) suggests choppy trading would continue. U.S. dollar later rebounded to 101.63 in New York after the release of FOMC minutes b4 trading sideways. Bids are now reported at 101.40-30 n more at 101.20-10 with stops only seen below 101.00. On the upside, mixture of offers n stops is tipped at 101.70 n more offers are noted at 101.90-00.
U.S. dollar showed muted reaction after early release of Markit Japan manufacturing PMI data which rose to 49.9 in May versus the previous reading of 49.4.
22 May 2014 01:50GMT
AUD/USD - 0.9248
The Australian dollar jumped to 0.9265 (Reuters) after the release of much stronger-than-expected China's HSBC manufacturing PMI data.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand ANZ consumer confidence, Japan Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI, China HSBA China manufacturing PMI, France business confidence, Markit France manufacturing PMI, Markit France Service PMI, Germany Markit/BME Germany manufacturing PMI, Markit Germany service PMI, euro zone Markit euro zone manufacturing PMI, Markit euro zone service PMI, U.K. GDP, PSNCR, private consumption, public sector net borrowing, exports and imports, CBI trends total orders, Canada retail sales, U.S. initial jobless claims, Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI, existing homes sales, leading index.
bali sja 02:41 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
buy euro with confidence 1.35-1.36 is accumulation zone now during US summer for a big run in the second half of the year
GVI Forex 01:47 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree:AUD
Reply
NEWS: CHINA HSBC MAY FLASH PMI 49.7 VS APRIL FINAL 48.1
Keeps .9200 safe for now? Depends on .9250
Mtl JP 01:32 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
for public consumption, Kuroda keeps making happy burbling sounds about his outlook for Japan
nw kw 01:26 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
Oct BoJ ease/ STLL LOOKING FOR JPY NUKULAR POWER up grades all most dun OR ARE on some they will change GDP //SEE IF YOU CAN FIND THE INFO NPOWER
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:19 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
Current GBPJPY is 171.40
For this to play out JPY has (USDJPY firm) to weaken as GBP is likely to lag.
If Nomura is right in its forecast for an Oct BoJ ease, then it may be a matter of timing. At that time expectations of a BOE rate hike would make it a green light trade. If July is the time. then different timing?
Brock Thor 01:08 GMT May 22, 2014
Forex News
Kw
To add a little
DowJones reports-
NZ 2.6 rise in seasonal job posts.
Fourth month in a row.
ANZ Senior Economist Zollner "firms are in hiring mode".
Brock Thor 00:59 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
Agree or Disagree?
Long Gbp/Jpy to 181.00-184.00
-bullish triangle pattern to resolve higher.
-lack of resistance since Jan 2 high.
- magnetic 50 % fib at 184.00
Question - quality of comparing pound and yen fundamentals?
I've made some super trades from this pair in the past.
The time for another is due???
nw kw 00:49 GMT May 22, 2014
Forex News
Heads Up: New Zealand ANZ Consumer Conf Index (MAY) due at 1:00 GMT (15min). 1.1% m/m recorded in April
Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 00:39 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
agree mainly..looking to enter short here at 3681 and up to 3715
at intervals�with 3715 area stop�tp more like 3600 in my view.
3715 stop is topside of 144/169 1 hr tunnel
weekly looks topping with lower highs and the difference between 5sma and 21 sma weekly getting lower signally trend change south..last 3 weeks..
risk very low under 35 pips and lower for multiple shorts entered higher
mho..
or let it rip lower.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:22 GMT May 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree?
You do not have to wait for us but can start your own Agree or Disagree thread if you have a currency you want to discuss.
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