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Forex Forum Archive for 05/23/2014

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dc CB 21:57 GMT May 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Today's RevRepo
$182.124 bln

this was the first day this week under $200bln

so back of the envelope 5 times $200bln Equals $1,000bln AKA $1Trillion
at 0.05% was churned thru the world markets this week thanks to the NYFED.

HK [email protected] 21:17 GMT May 23, 2014
FWIW: Russia ready to use national currency in settlements under international contract
Reply   

ST. PETERSBURG, May 24 /ITAR-TASS/. Russia is ready to use its national currency in settlements under international contracts but is not going to give up settlements in dollars or euros, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vasily Nebenzya told Itar-Tass on Friday on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

“We have already said that we will use national currencies where it is appropriate, but no one is going to drop traditional currency units, such dollars or euros,” he said when asked about possible use of the Russian rouble in conditions of Western sanctions.

“We are open for all,” he stressed. “We have no prejudices, neither do we want to punish anybody, unlike those who want to punish us but would rather punish themselves instead.
....................................................................................

The least to say; Not too good and supportive for USD strength.

GVI Forex john 19:52 GMT May 23, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 18:38 GMT May 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

There seems to be no worries about the Ukraine vote over the weekend.

dc CB 17:36 GMT May 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



No Fear here

GVI Forex john 16:47 GMT May 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


  • Late in European trading, markets appear to be very cautious into the long U.K. and U.S. weekends.
  • Yields in prime fixed income markets are steady to mixed as equities stabilize  Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have turned sharply lower.
  • Equities mostly rallied in the Far East earlier. European bourses are closing higher, except for the FTSE. U.S. equines are currently trading higher.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.53%, -2bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

Livingston nh 16:02 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree USDJPY

USD/JPY -- disagree (w/ normal regard for my yen predictions) - think a second drop to set up double bottom - usually second tests come quickly //102.12 may cap b4 the test -- fear of an SPX decline next few days

GVI Forex john 15:43 GMT May 23, 2014
Chart Points - Pivot Based Levels

Pivot point resistance-1 101.96 (HOD 101.96). Support-1 today was 101.46 (LOD 101.57).

GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:28 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree USDJPY
Reply   
USDJPY has seen its low after failing to test 100.73

GVI Forex john 15:26 GMT May 23, 2014
BOJ Governor Kuroda
Reply   
A short while ago Kuroda talked down the JPY saying the JPY is "not likely" to rise vs ye USD. He also complained that the JPY is still "quite strong" vs. th EUR.

There was about a 10 pip gain in USDJPY on the headline.

Livingston nh 15:14 GMT May 23, 2014
Carry

Thanx Jay - MXN is interesting - TRY sense too much a long hot summer there

GVI Forex Blog 15:05 GMT May 23, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The euro is softer again this morning after the Germany May IFO Survey came in weaker than expected. EUR/USD hit a three-month low of 1.3620 and traded below its 200-day moving average of 1.3636 for the first time since September 2013

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: S&P500 Gunning for All-Time Highs

GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:52 GMT May 23, 2014
Carry

nh, I read one recommendation to sell EUR vs. EM, specifically MXN and TRY.

GVI Forex Blog 14:47 GMT May 23, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
•EU parliamentary results risk putting the euro under further pressure

•US inflation moving up toward the Fed’s target

•UK data watched, as signs of dissent emerge on the MPC

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - EURO VULNERABLE TO EU ELECTION RESULTS

Livingston nh 14:44 GMT May 23, 2014
Carry
Reply   
Any carry implications for EUR if ECB inflicts negative rates on the EU? if any, would it be greater among non-EUR EU members or vs. others (e.g, USD, AUD, CHF or JPY)?

GVI Forex Blog 14:42 GMT May 23, 2014 Reply   
May 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday/ Tuesday, May 26-27.Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: MONDAY- U.S./U.K.- Holiday. TUESDAY- DE- Retail Sales, US- Durable Goods, Case-Shiller, flash Markit SVC PMI, CB Sentiment.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 26-27, 2014

GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:41 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

if anyone is still trading, the high just now was 1.3642 vs. 1.3643 38.2% level posted earlier. Last 1.3630.

This is a great thread and can be setup for any currency.

GVI Forex john 14:36 GMT May 23, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


May 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday/ Tuesday, May 26-27.Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: MONDAY- U.S./U.K.- Holiday. TUESDAY- DE- Retail Sales, US- Durable Goods, Case-Shiller, flash Markit SVC PMI, CB Sentiment.

    Monday: No Major Data.
    Tuesday:
  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- Retail Sales, CH- Trade.
  • North America: US- Durable Goods, Case-Shiller, flash Markit SVC PMI, Richmond Fed, CB Sentiment, 2-yr Auction.


GVI Forex john 14:21 GMT May 23, 2014
April 2014 U.S. New Home Sales

A pet peeve I have on data releases is that many analysts only look at the last two months data when providing an analysis. We try to look back in the data for trends.

Look at the chart. New Home Sales are basically flat and are still well below mid-2013 highs. At one time they ran steadily at almost three times current levels, so there is a long way to go.

GVI Forex john 14:14 GMT May 23, 2014
April 2014 U.S. New Home Sales

New Homes Sales larger than expected. Data revised back to 2012. March revised up, but January and February revised down. As we look at the chart. New Homes Sales are dead flat.

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT May 23, 2014
April 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
Reply   



ALERT
433K vs. 423K exp. vs. 384K (r 407) prev.


New Residential Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer



Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:35 GMT May 23, 2014
April 2014 Canada: Consumer Prices & Bank of Canada Core



Canada: Headline and BOC Core CPI... Headline rising. Bank of Canada Core still in line.

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT May 23, 2014
April 2014 Canada: Consumer Prices & Bank of Canada Core
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
yy: +1.40% vs. +1.40% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.
Headline
mm:+0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.60% prev.
yy: +2.00% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:05 GMT May 23, 2014
Chart Points - Pivot Based Levels

USDJPY bounded nicely today by level one of pivot support/resistance.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:04 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EURUSD avg daily range for 5 and 30 days is 58 pips and that is skewed up by the occasional news driven day. There have been more than enough sub-50 pip range days than any of us like. it used to be a daily range was 100 pips and shows how volatility has shrunk.

Even today, d the excitement of the 100 day mva breaking and a new low, the range has been just 38 pips.

Maybe this reflects a market noi longer USD centric and cross currency flows limiting spot ranges as market gets pulled in both directions.

By the way 38.2% of 1.3688-1.3615 is 1.3643. Not a forecast.

GVI Forex john 11:55 GMT May 23, 2014
Chart Points - Pivot Based Levels

Basis Thursday session ranges...




GVI Forex john 11:48 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

fwiw- Although CPI data today are key for Canada, they are not likely to have any immediate impact on policy. U.S. New Homes sales are a second-tier piece of data, so I do not see much additional market impact from news today.

Otherwise, the German IFO Survey earlier fell short of expectations and can only reinforce expectations for ECB ease in two weeks time. The EURUSD already reacted negatively to the news. Ironically, the DAX has rallied on the IFO data on hopes for an ECB easing. One key focus is the 1.3638 200-day average.

Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 11:47 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

gm.
closed my short from 3681 too early..could have placed a very close stop and let it play out…but was vigilance weary.
a regret, however, with not much sting..considering market risks..

gl gt..sidelined and heading offshore Gulf of Mexico..

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:38 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

it is Friday, US and UK are closed Monday, many are already gone so expect a thin market with many heading for the exits early.

Close will be important today vs. the 100 day mva at 1.3638 but bearish tilt as long as 1.3650+ doesn't trade.

EU elections over the weekend might grab some headlines. Interesting that Ukraine vote has gotten practically no attention.

London Chris 10:59 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

I don't see it so good luck. Trend is your friend.

jkt abel 10:44 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1st buy euro now 1.3620, buy more if 1.3570-1.3580 seen, stop for today below 1.3545, target open

bali sja 10:14 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

London Chris, nothing to be given up. On contrary very happy to see reloading zone. Only out if below 1.3420. Game on!

GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:13 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Red tks.

I was just saying I am surprised that there have not been more short EUR calls as we have some momentum.

Also, net USDJPY has been slowly creeping up, consistent with what I have been saying about 102 being at risk.

GVI Forex john 10:04 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Note our NEW EUR Moving average Heat Map

Share Your Trading Ideas for Today
GVI Forex john 08:10 GMT 05/23/2014

EURUSD column is all RED except for 200-day average which is 1.3638, so if we close below there it will turn red also.

Bottom line EURUSD buyers are fighting a strong current. This is not to say you can't be a buyer, but when you trade or set your stops, you should be taking account of which way the water is now flowing.

GVI Forex Blog 09:57 GMT May 23, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The Euro currency softer following some bearish drivers. Germany May IFO Survey came in softer than expected across the board. The EUR/USD hit a 3-month low of 1.3620 and traded below its 200-day moving average of 1.3636 (**Note: First time below since Sept 6th 2013). Overall recent ECB-speak has remained dovish

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Muted session ahead of EU elections over the weekend; German IFO and euro softer

london red 09:50 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

13570-13490 for me is the low end of current range.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:31 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

We finally got a trend going but have not seen many bearish trade calls on the board.

I hope this new thread is helping as it has helped me already.

London Chris 09:05 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Bali have you given up the fight?

Your 1.35-1.36 accumulation zone is coming sooner than you expected. IMO

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT May 23, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

The DAX has rallied as it is reading the weaker than expected IFO data as supportive of ECB policy ease. German growth recently has been mainly domestic. Traditionally Germany has depended on exports to the Eurozone and elsewhere. The hope is that stronger growth outside of Germany within the EZ would help the German economy.

Amman wfakhoury 08:50 GMT May 23, 2014
WFakhoury

sure..I will

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:48 GMT May 23, 2014
WFakhoury
Reply   
You need to talk to me first before a post like that.

GVI Forex Blog 08:46 GMT May 23, 2014
German IFO Survey Falls Short of Expectations. Early Close for Some Markets Today
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CA- CPI, US- New Homes Sales

Today's focus will be on Canadian CPI data as they could have implications for the central bank's policy bias. U.S. New homes sales data a is usually not a market-mover but will provide more current information about this key industry. The U.S. cannot start generating new jobs on a large scale without housing.

German IFO Survey Falls Short of Expectations. Early Close for Some Markets Today

GVI Forex john 08:29 GMT May 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   



  • Late in  European trading, markets have been drifting away from a"risk-on" posture to greater neutrality.
  • Yields in prime fixed income
    markets are steady to mixed as equities stabilize. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have turned higher after falling sharply early.
  • Equities mostly rallied in the Far East earlier. European bourses are closing higher. U.S. equities are currently trading higher.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.55%, +1bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns< all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red)

GVI Forex john 08:10 GMT May 23, 2014
Share Your Trading Ideas for Today

Notice EURUSD is testing below its 200day moving average (1.3638). Below 1.3638, all 5 thru 200 day averages are pointing down.

NEW Heat MAP EUR Crosses Moving Averages...



GVI Forex john 08:07 GMT May 23, 2014
May 2014 German IFO Survey

German Ifo data: German data softer across the board. This is a broadly followed report. EURUSD lower.



GVI Forex john 08:02 GMT May 23, 2014
May 2014 German IFO Survey

German IFO weaker than expected. Additional support for ECB ease in June.

GVI Forex john 08:01 GMT May 23, 2014
May 2014 German IFO Survey
Reply   



NEWS ALERT

Climate: 110.4 vs. 110.9 exp. vs. 111.2 prev.
Conditions:114.8 vs. 115.5 exp. vs. 115.3 prev.
Expectations: 106.2 vs. 106.6 exp. vs. 107.3 prev.


IFO Climate Survey



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Amman wfakhoury 07:27 GMT May 23, 2014
EURJPY 138.65 confirmed

actually no email recieved.

CT LV 07:18 GMT May 23, 2014
EURJPY 138.65 confirmed

I am. Did you receive my email as well?

Amman wfakhoury 07:15 GMT May 23, 2014
EURJPY 138.65 confirmed

May I ask you if you are the same person who added me on Linked in

CT LV 07:12 GMT May 23, 2014
EURJPY 138.65 confirmed

Unfortunately not. Did not take the trade. So no barbeque and wine for me...yet

Amman wfakhoury 07:10 GMT May 23, 2014
EURJPY 138.65 confirmed

Thks ...hope you made some money too.

CT LV 07:03 GMT May 23, 2014
EURJPY 138.65 confirmed

Well done! Enjoy that wine

Amman wfakhoury 06:31 GMT May 23, 2014
EURJPY 138.65 confirmed

Amman wfakhoury 15:40 GMT 05/22/2014
138.65 confirmed will be reached any rise above 13900 will return to it.

Just few money for weekend dinner.
-__________________________________________
13865 reached >>I made 270$ good enough for seafood BBQ
weekend dinner ..I have a bottle of wine since 1985.
Cheers all

GVI Forex Blog 03:29 GMT May 23, 2014 Reply   
It is a quiet day so far for the markets with neither the military coup in Thailand nor the

Morning Briefing : 23-May-2014 -0329 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:36 GMT May 23, 2014
AceTrader May 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views


23 May 2014 01:58GMT

USD/JPY - 101.75 ... The greenback ratcheted higher to 101.86 in Tokyo morning due to improved risk appetite as Nikkei-225 index rose by 125 points to 11463 following the rise in global stock markets. Bids are now located at 101.70-60 n more at 101.50 whilst offers are tipped at 101.90-00.

The Bank of Japan's chief executor of its unprecedented monetary stimulus, Masayoshi Amamiya, is expected by central bank and Abe administration officials to be reappointed to a rare second term, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Amamiya has helped shape key policies as the central bank battles deflation in the world? third-biggest economy. After less than a year as Osaka branch manager, Amamiya, 58, got his old job back as head of the monetary affairs department in March 2013, about two weeks before Kuroda unveiled record easing on April 4.

22 May 2014 20:03GMT

Fed's Williams says 'U.S. monetary policy "on road to normal"; normalizing will be gradual, Fed will be flexible; will be 'challenges' when Fed does begin to raise rates; challenges include added risks to financial stability from five years of easy policy; housing an "area of concern," but expect improvement; sees 3 pct U.S. GDP growth in 2014 and 2015; sees unemployment hitting 5.25 pct-5.5 pct "natural" rate in 2016; wage growth should pick up as jobless rate falls; economic slack is main reason for abnormally low inflation; sees return to 2 pct; would take a 'substantial shift' in outlook to derail QE3 taper; raising fed's policy rate is still "a good way off".'

Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 02:33 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

closing remaining 2/3 of 3681 short at 3649..

will check any move at 3634…or 3688


gl gt to all

GVI Forex 01:35 GMT May 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

For the close:

1.3638. = 200 day mva

Close below would expose 1.3559-62

Only above 1.3688 would slow the risk although 1.3650 will help set the tone on what will be a thin pre-holiday Friday

German IFO is the data highlight but will not deter the ECB no matter what the result

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:28 GMT May 23, 2014
Put This on Your Trading Checklist
Reply   
Don't get faked out.

This is an important article to read for this type of market

Put This on Your Trading Checklist

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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