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Forex Forum Archive for 05/26/2014

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GVI Forex Blog 23:57 GMT May 26, 2014
Forex News
* Euro off lows thanks to a bit of short squeeze

* Downtrend still intact as ECB Draghi reinforces policy speculation

* Another quiet session expected with no major data in Asia

FOREX-Euro drifts off low but U.S. holiday saps momentum

HK RF@ 23:45 GMT May 26, 2014
This stupid Poroshenko, is likely better in manufacturing chocolate than politics:)

Ukraine's president-elect, Petro Poroshenko, promises to end the armed insurgency in the east of the country in 'hours' amid battle for Donetsk airport - @guardian
This strategy will likely claim lives of many of civilians, and may become a central issue for markets.

nw kw 22:34 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree Crude Oil

usd inx. most are waiting for chart to hold the brake out,or the gold bugs

heating oil bit soft see if June 2 is oil top 108 poss oil afraid of us gov, for shod ran for 110
102.5 oil old pivot

GVI Forex john 22:15 GMT May 26, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

CB- I've rarely seen the forex market react noticeably to any Treasury auction. I know they are a big deal for bond traders which is why I include them in the calendar.


dc CB 21:32 GMT May 26, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

5-yr Auction- Usually not a market mover."

owing to the Flatner Trade...sell 5s buy 30's that is currently in the process of being Unwound. This Auction bears watching, even if it dosen't Move the Market. As it shows the perception of short term rates over long. It got its start when Yellen dropped the 6 months line and the Dots got shown.

GVI Forex john 21:14 GMT May 26, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
TUESDAY 27 May 2014
United States:
Durable Goods- Capacity Utilization- Seen higher.
Case Shiller- Old home prices. Yawn!
Markit Services PMI- Seen steady. relatively new index.
Conference Board Survey- Short-term confidence Survey. Seen better.

WEDNESDAY 28 May 2014
Employment- Key economic measure. Seen stronger
Consumer Confidence- Useful statistic, but NOT a market-mover
United States-
5-yr Auction- Usually not a market mover.

THURSDAY 29 May 2014
United States
GDP- Revisions to 1Q14 GDP will be closely Watched
Weekly Jobless Claims- Markets always watch levels on Claims> Pending Homes Sales- Good predictor of Existing Homes Sales
Canada- GDP- Often not a Market-mover

FRIDAY 30 May 2014
CPI - The BOJ wants to extricate Japan from deflation.
Retail Sales-� Key metric for Germany since its recent economic strength has been let by the consumer, which is very unusual.
United States-
University of Michigan survey. Closely watched.

Mtl JP 20:13 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree Crude Oil

Joe 19:42 so what are u doing now: buy , sell, or if wait then for what and then what ?

Cambridge Joe 19:42 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree Crude Oil

thanks CB.

dc CB 19:36 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree Crude Oil

I'd wait until the NYMEX pit opens at 9AM NY, 1400 GMT. No volume until then.
They may make a run at 105.

specs pushing it higher for the summer run


GVI Forex john 17:01 GMT May 26, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 15:29 GMT May 26, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

May 23, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday/ Tueday, May 26-27. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: Tuesday- DE- Retail Sales, US- Durable Goods, Case-Shiller, flash Markit SVC PMI, CB Sentiment.

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- Retail Sales, CH- Trade.
  • North America: US- Durable Goods, Case-Shiller, flash Markit SVC PMI, Richmond Fed, CB Sentiment, 2-yr Auction.

Syd 15:23 GMT May 26, 2014
Retiring Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean warns of rates rise over the next three to fiv
Charlie Bean, retiring as deputy governor with responsibility for monetary policy, made the prediction on Sunday of Bank of England interest rate rises to 3% over the next three to five years
Bean was deputy governor for 7 years, and prior to that was as the Bank�s chief economist for 7 years
Said that rates were likely to �settle at 3pc� between 2017 and 2019
Also that �there was no immediate need for an increase because there was still slack in the economy to guard against any inflation build-up�

BoE's Charlie Bean expects rates to hit 3pc in three years

Mtl JP 15:16 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree Crude Oil

Joe ... I think there is more to be alert about in the price of Brent

The Chinese (and Russia) are trying to dump their USD holdings and buy things , China is loading up crude (Brent you ll want to note) at a rate of an extra 1mil barrels of oil everyday beyond what they need .. since the beginning of April

Can you think of what it would take make Brent go to - say - $150?

Cambridge Joe 14:40 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree Crude Oil

Thanks Jay.... and JP it was WTI.

Livingston nh 14:37 GMT May 26, 2014
Global Markets News

JP - a fair amount of complacency in the punditry and elites that EU voting is not dispositive of the national election outcomes -- but politics like economics is contextual not scientific so you need to know the environment as it is NOW not prior years (the dangers of using GOOD analogies) // folks vote local and personal issues in national elections but EU is now affecting some folks on a personal and local level (austerity) -- national govvies that miss that point are more likely to be removed (professionals know that "doing the Right Thing" is not usually conducive to re-election)

Mtl JP 14:26 GMT May 26, 2014
Global Markets News

nh buddy remarked that MSM not reporting that pretty much almost ALL of the czech parties are anti-EU.. only 1 out of 31 is 'pro'... so even with the people so pissed off with the status quo.. some protests etc... the elites are still in charge & people are sheeple everywhere
Bottom Line
The European princes will NOT be denied their castle

GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:19 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree Crude Oil
Joe, I started an Agree or Disagree Crude Oil thread, which will make it easier to carry on an ongoing discussion on this .

Livingston nh 14:19 GMT May 26, 2014
Global Markets News

As national politicians in Europe look out to the elections next year and in 2016 there is immediate concern for those operating in coalitions - they must hang together or hang separately // the usual corrective action by parties in power is restricted by "austerity" concerns - notably in Greece and Ireland but also in France as Hollande must decide whether set a "bad" example or toe the line

Defections in coalitions are common as individual politicians assess the election results on a personal level -- Greece may be the first to see some pols changing horses

Mtl JP 13:50 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

WTI or Brent ?

Cambridge Joe 13:40 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Anyone see Oil as HOD in place ?

nw kw 12:10 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

aud a rain down trade poss aud/eur/china rain /gold stuck in the mud

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:08 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Reposting my weekend video update.

1.3650 is most important for me although Friday's high was 1.3656. Range sill small (33 pips) but feels like more (life in a low volatility market). 1.3650 caps upside today unless market sniffs out more stops?

Note chatter of good bids at 1,36.

Last leg was about 120 pips, 38.2% = 1.3660.

Video Market Update

GVI Forex Blog 10:59 GMT May 26, 2014
Global Markets News
A sense of calm ensued the periphery bond markets following the weekend EU parliamentary elections as the major political equilibrium remained unchanged. Despite the sharp rise in votes for Eurosceptic parties, the traditional parties retained their clear majority in the European parliament, EU Market Update: EU election results should allow reforms to continue; Repsol to try for special dividend

nw kw 10:00 GMT May 26, 2014
Happy Notes on Future Trading Ideas from Central Bankers

cat devalued for not much time but it gave inflation up to gov. targets //eur might have this in mined

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:55 GMT May 26, 2014
AceTrader May 26: Daily Market Outlook on EUR/USD

Update Time: 26 May 2014 07:35 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.3638
The single currency fell to a fresh 3-month low at 1.3615 in New Zealand morning, suggesting erratic decline from May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to retrace medium term upmove from 1.2042 (Jul 2012) remains in progress and further weakness to 1.3477 support is likely, however, strong support at 1.3295 is expected to remain intact.

On the upside, only a breach of 1.3734 resistance would signal a temporary low is made and yield rebound to 1.3771/75 res, however, 1.3812 (previous support, now resistance) would cap upside.

GVI Forex john 09:54 GMT May 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Early in European trading, the absence of London is keeping activity at a low level.
  • Yields in prime fixed income markets are generally higher after weekend parliamentary elections appeared to be a vote in favor of economic stimulus.  steady. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are sharply lower.
  • Equities mostly rallied in the Far East earlier. Open European bourses are higher. The FTSE is closed. U.S. markets are closed today.
  • The U.S. 10-yr closed at 2.53%, -2bp on Friday.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

SaaR KaL 09:40 GMT May 26, 2014
Next 24 hrs

i doubt cable goes above 1.6880 over next 24 hrs
week's end tgt lower then 1.6730
maybe as low as 1.6660

SaaR KaL 09:32 GMT May 26, 2014
Next 24 hrs
Selling EURUSD above 1.3655 till 1.3774

tgt < 1.3544

Hong Kong Qindex 09:09 GMT May 26, 2014
EUR/USD : Current Comments
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : As shown in the monthly cycle directional indicator speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 1.3656.

Monthly Cycle Directional Indicator : [1.3296] - 1.3385* - 1.3536 - 1.3614 - [1.3626] - 1.3656 - 1.3744 - 1.3795 - 1.3808 - 1.3870 - [1.4004] - 1.4130

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex Blog 05:19 GMT May 26, 2014 Reply   
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): 534M V 634ME - (HU) HUNGARY MAY GKI BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 4.8 V 7.7 PRIOR, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -18.4 V -15.3 PRIOR, ECONOMIC SENTIMENT: -1.2 V +1.7 PRIOR - Asian Market Update: Japan, Asia market higher on US markets, Ukraine optimism; BoJ minutes show minority dissent - Source

manila tom 04:58 GMT May 26, 2014
sell usdcad
this is a scalp trade: short 1.0867, target 1.0835 stop 1.0891

manila tom 04:55 GMT May 26, 2014
EUR/USD Short Squeeze

ok guys, let's give it a good shot, long 1.3620, 1.3590 and 1.3570 in 1:2:3 allocation, stop below 1.3530, 1st target 1.3790

bali sja 04:47 GMT May 26, 2014
EUR/USD Short Squeeze

agree Zeus, a nice upside is next for euro, let's say to 1.38 from this 1.36!!! shorties run for cover!!!

HK RF@ 04:27 GMT May 26, 2014
Federal State of New Russia
Should have been added to the prev. post hehe

Federal State of New Russia

HK RF@ 04:24 GMT May 26, 2014
Why should the US media ignore the creation of the state of Novorussiya?

Probably because of some resemblance to bad memories from the past:)

See attached image.

GVI Forex Blog 03:29 GMT May 26, 2014 Reply   
The sentiment in the Asia-Pac this morning is well in the positive after an increase in US home

Morning Briefing : 26-May-2014 -0329 GMT

USA ZEUS 02:26 GMT May 26, 2014
EUR/USD Short Squeeze
Weak hands about to experience the mother of all short squeezes after the most visible levels and indicators confirmed the obvious....Good luck out there!

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:01 GMT May 26, 2014
AceTrader May 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD NZD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

25 May 2014 23:09GMT

EUR/USD - 1.3627.. On election results of the European Parliament, Reuters reported earlier Exit polls show surge in support for far right, Euroskeptics in European Parliament election.

Centre-right parties estimated to top European parliament vote with 211 seats out of 751.

Reuters reports according to official projections, centre-right parties are estimated to top European parliament vote with 211 seats out of 751.

Socialists seen in second place with 193 seats, Liberals third with 74,Greens 58, far left 47 n Eurosceptic parties seen winning about 129 seats in European parliament.

Reuters then reported Britain's Eurosceptic UKIP party has won gains in elections to the European Parliament, so far polling more strongly than PM David Cameron's Conservative party n the opposition Labour party, early results showed on Sunday.

With results for 10 out of 73 seats declared, the UK Independence Party, which wants Britain to leave the European Union, had won 4 seats, the opposition Labour party 3 seats, and the Conservatives 3 seats.

25 May 2014 22:57GMT

NZD/USD - 0.8545.. Ratings agency Fitch said New Zealand Subnational ratings still underpinned by institutional framework.

Fitch Ratings says in a newly-published report that the overall strength of the New Zealand institutional framework remains a major positive credit factor for subnationals.

GVI Forex 01:52 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Draghi speaks 10 AM CET

EU election results due as well

Thin holiday Monday

NY JM 00:14 GMT May 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Hey Abel

I can write the 1.60 option as that level is history.

GVI Forex Blog 00:05 GMT May 26, 2014
Forex News
* Euro wallows at three-month lows vs USD

* ECB Draghi speech to take centre stage in quiet start to week

* U.S. and UK markets shut for public holidays

FOREX-Euro still in the doldrums, ECB Draghi speech in focus


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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