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Forex Forum Archive for 05/28/2014

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GVI Forex Blog 23:57 GMT May 28, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index rises to two-month highs

* Sterling posts biggest one-day fall in four months

* Euro extends slide; kiwi also hit hard

FOREX-Dollar at 2-month highs as sterling turns tail, euro sinks

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:39 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Al thanks for that post.

Dillon AL 22:08 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:23 GMT 05/28/2014
There is a near universal consensus forecast for weaker bonds/higher yields and just about everyone trading bonds are positioned that way, including banks.

So bank bond desks are screwed along with everyone else short bonds.

Additionally I would like to address all those who have referenced the COT report which shows a bear bias as well.
========
The Bond Market Futures are deliverable and therefore the COT report only shows a very very small degree of positioning of which the majority are genuine hedge positions.
- The natural position and the one promoted by the futures exchanges in their education materials is always long the underlying short the futures then manage the position in a delta trading fashion additionally with or without options.
- So to analyze the COT report on any deliverable you need to look at futures plus options and you need to look across all the curve and then you need to analyze the underlying as well
- Never confuse Bank Trading Desks and the Commercial Banks Portfolios. The two bear no relation to each other. One is a Trading Book and the other is an Investment Portfolio.
- One has a Mark to Market the other does not.
- So Commercial Banks are not positioned short and are not screwed.
On the contrary they up long and still have cash burning a hole in their balance sheets.
- Trading desks may perhaps be short but that is likely only a tiny proportion of the over-all market structure.
- To state that yields are dropping because everyone is caught with the wrong position is not true.
- There is a huge demand for so called non risk with a reasonable return. Something that in a ZIRP environment means that yields have to drop to what historically have been considered to be miniscule levels.
- The FED created the environment where it became a game of trying to re-build Commercial Banks Balance Sheets by effectively giving them free money. This was the route they went down post 2007 rather IE re-building Wall St in the mistaken view that a strong banking sector would then re-build Main St. BUT all this did was create and engendered the round trip of The US Treasury issuing Government debt and the Bank's buying the auctions that then were re-sold to the FED. Easy money without risk...In fact guaranteed profits.
-Now I hear you say but the FED is reducing their balance sheet and that round trip no longer exists but what you miss is that side of the business may perhaps be curtailed for now but the Commercial Banks need to fill their Balance Sheets with something and traditionally it has always been debt. The difference this time is that they have little interest in commercial debt or junk bonds or even EM debt so that leaves only one option..... Government Bonds

To conclude and repeat. If the prevailing view is universally bearish on yields then that is likely the view of the vocal minority the same minority who have been bearish for the last 5 years in stocks. It is also likely the view of the frustrated who for a while have seen little genuine volatility across many asset classes. After all the S&P 500 YTD broadly speaking went from 1850 to 1750 to 1900. IE no where fast to the upside (and one c add in many other asset classes with similar performances) but the US 10 year Note has moved 7% and the Long Bond the genuine area of the fixed income curve has moved 15%. (Why do I say this is the genuine area of the fixed income curve..because this is where you separate the men from the boys and where the majority of mortgages are run to and from in terms of time.
From this one can deduce there has been an extension of duration (btw the 10 year duration is 8.77 and the long bond is 18.8 years) in the never ending search for yield enhancement and there has been a search for genuine portfolio return which has occurred at the long end rather than the middle of the curve. After all 15% in 5 months is not to be sneezed at.
Conclusion: The driver is not short covering per see but genuine demand, in places driven by yield considerations, in places by a flight to quality, in places by an ASSET ALLOCATION

GVI Forex john 21:42 GMT May 28, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
THURSDAY 29 May 2014
Eurozone
Holiday
United States
GDP- Revisions to 1Q14 GDP will be closely-watched
Weekly Jobless Claims- Markets always watch claims.
Pending Homes Sales- Good predictor of Existing Homes
Canada- GDP- Often not a Market-mover

FRIDAY 30 May 2014
Japan-
CPI - The BOJ wants to extricate Japan from deflation. Core CPI seem 3.60% (subtract -2.70% for sales tax hike.).
Germany;
Retail Sales-  Key for Germany since its recent economic strength has been consumer-led. Very unusual.
United States-
University of Michigan Survey. Closely watched

Livingston nh 20:20 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

C&I loans are the highest level since Q2 2000 - consumer credit is only growing at 5.6% (slightly above stall speed) -- mortgage loans single family residence are down despite low rates because there is no compulsion to lend (availability of credit not its price has always been more important in this market)

dc CB 20:11 GMT May 28, 2014
Global Markets News

GVI Forex john 12:21 GMT May 28, 2014
JP- interesting report on fracking.

Seen this?

EIA Cuts Monterey Shale Estimates on Extraction Challenges

May 21, 2014

The Energy Information Administration slashed its estimate of recoverable reserves from California’s Monterey Shale by 96 percent, saying oil from the largest U.S. formation will be harder to extract than previously anticipated.

“Not all reserves are created equal,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski told reporters at the Financial Times and Energy Intelligence Oil & Gas Summit in New York today. “It just turned out it’s harder to frack that reserve and get it out of the ground.”

The US Shale Oil Miracle Disappears The Monterey formation was just downgraded by 96%

Paris ib 20:08 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

All the assumptions of how banks would react to low rates have proved wrong. Credit to the private sector continues to FALL in the U.S., here is an updated chart.

So the banks take the money for free from the FED and buy Government bonds. Two results: low bond yields and weak economic activity. This is walking in Japan's footsteps in the 1990s.

Credit in the U.S.

Paris ib 19:53 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I couldn't find an updated chart, though I know credit in Europe continues to fall, as it does in Australia and I am assuming in the United States. Japanese bank lending has been falling for decades.... and that's the future for as long as banks globally prefer to recycle all the cash they get from Central Banks into Government bonds.

Credit to the Private Sector

dc CB 19:50 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

COT data says the markets were positioned wrong.

this is also the last day for June futures going into First postion and First notice (fri). Rollng into Sept...throwing in the towel???

Paris ib 19:46 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

This is so like Japan it's not funny. No-one can get a mortgage in Japan - and that has been the case for decades. Which is why property prices never recovered, bond yields continued to fall way past what everyone expected (I don't think anyone forecast 10 year yields to crack 2% - they are now under 1%) and low short term rates never impacted the private sector at the individual or small business level.

GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT May 28, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Paris ib 19:43 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

John - this isn't just a short squeeze this is an ongoing flood of capital into bonds - from the FED via commercial banks. This flow of funds bypasses the private sector. The market may have been short bonds. That is a miscalculation of the flow of funds. The market had been waiting for an increase in credit to the private sector, a flow on increase in economic activity and higher inflation, higher gold prices etc... and it's not happening.

GVI Forex john 19:37 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

COT data says the markets were positioned wrong...

GVI Forex john 19:36 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

COT tables from last Friday. Markets were short 10-yr note!








Paris ib 19:29 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Jay the general consensus has been for a while:
- higher bond yields
- a much higher USD/JPY
- higher Gold prices
None have worked and none are likely to work IMVHO. Gold could really take a dive. The USD/JPY looks very wobbly and yields keep falling. Lots of people are losing a lot of money.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:23 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

There is a near universal consensus forecast for weaker bonds/higher yields and just about everyone trading bonds are positioned that way, including banks.

So bank bond desks are screwed along with everyone else short bonds.

Paris ib 19:18 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Dillon AL - absolutely. I heard the theory that Central Banks keeping rates low create a kind of commercial QE. The commercial banks lend from the Central Bank and buy government bonds. Lending to the private sector (ie. the individual or small business - I saw an article on 120 percent interest on small business loans in the U.S.) is reduced while the government and businesses big enough to access the bond market get extremely favourable interest rates.

GVI Forex john 19:18 GMT May 28, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   


Dillon AL 19:04 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

John one explanation that none seems to have put forward re fixed income yields is that the bond buying has come from a traditional source. IE Commercial banks who have apparently no other place to lend.
As the credit markets in terms of their lending are frozen - due to their rediculous requirements (in my case when I added the other half's earnings they actually reduced the amount that they were prepared to lend whereby it ended up being less than 1x my annual earnings !) - they are finding it difficult as well to place money for any reasonable term with their so called competitor banks in the money markets it therefore leaves only one avenue. Lend to the Govt. I would suggest that Commercial Banks are the culprits

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:02 GMT May 28, 2014
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Red, what would be better if it comes in -0.6%, dollar blips down and then sellers come in.

GVI Forex john 18:33 GMT May 28, 2014
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Red- Agree. Who knows? GDP in the States usually is all about inventories anyway. I can never trade on it.

GVI Forex john 18:25 GMT May 28, 2014
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2.436%

GVI Forex john 18:01 GMT May 28, 2014
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10-yr 2.441%

london red 17:57 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

John 6 months ago q1 gdp was expected c. 1.5%. Tomorrow the markets will rally if we see anything better than -0.5%. Q2 is forecast 2%+. Forecasters could be wrong again.

jkt abel 17:51 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

so you are selling based on ECB? that's priced in already, buy rumour sell fact case

GVI Forex Blog 17:38 GMT May 28, 2014
USD Tone Better After Weak German Jobs Data. Active U.S. Calendar Thursday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Retail Sales, Industrial Output, EZ- Holiday (partial), CH- Holiday, CA- Current Account, GDP. US- GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Homes Sales Forex trading activity on Wednesday seemed to be extremely slow as it appeared that traders were looking for direction in what seemed to be improving trading conditions. Perhaps it was the partial Thursday European holiday thatdiminished participation.

USD Tone Better After Weak German Jobs Data. Active U.S. Calendar Thursday

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:12 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

There seems to be an ongoing anti-USD trading bias here and I don't see why look to buy eurusd with the ECB meeting looming.

Looking at a weekly chart, if 1.3475 breaks then => 1.3407 (major trendline) => then 1.3295 => then 1.3105 => then 1.2754, at which point Zeus would appear with 1.2777

Just pointing out the risks.

kl shawn 16:57 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

wow, cheap euros, buy 1.3590, stop 100 pips below, adding if 1.3530-1.3550 seen, target open till xmas

jkt abel 16:53 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

no Jay, even more bullish now!! buy euro 1.35-1.36 is still my mantra, i like bali sja's idea of 1.35-1.40 summer range.

only under 1.3470 on weekly close then i am wrong

GVI Forex john 16:50 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Frankly, I find most explanations I have heard about why bond yields are in the tank as rather hollow. I've been in these markets for more decades than I would care to admit, and what typically happens when something strange like this occurs is an explanation eventually surfaces.

I sense that bond dealers regularly have been on the wrong side of the market recently and that suggests that they do not have a clue either. One staple of bank earnings usually has been profits on bond trading, and quarter after quarter recently they have not been performing.

GVI Forex john 16:41 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


  • Late in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are broadly lower and  in a risk-off posture ahead of the ECB in a week's time.  Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have turned sharply lower.
  • Equities rose broadly in the Far East earlier as they followed the Tuesday U.S. lead. European bourses closed narrowly mixed. U.S. equity futures are down slightly.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.45%, -8bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Livingston nh 16:39 GMT May 28, 2014
STOX
Reply   
Despite the bond market's travails the VIX can't get off the floor - when this happens it doesn't take much of a spark to send stox into freefall -- of course, it might be different this time // tick tick tick

Livingston nh 16:24 GMT May 28, 2014
US Yields

Most of the chaos is a result of the Fed confusion over the "Tiger Dismount" -- the distortions created across markets and the over stretch for yield are going to be lethal // The hubris of the central bankers in their belief that "it's different this time" will be rewarded by the gods in the usual way

GVI Forex 16:10 GMT May 28, 2014
US Yields
Reply   
US 10-yr 2.445%

Santelli on CNBC saying

- ECB rate cut pushing yields lower

- Peripheral yields falling pushing US yields down on a relative risk basis

- Bond shorts keep getting squeezed

Bottom line, no explanation

UK Malc 15:49 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD

I checked into some other similar places and it is pretty quiet everywhere. Maybe it is the holiday tomorrow or a market that does not seem to want to buy dollars.

The trend is clear but not sure about volumes.

Livingston nh 15:28 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD

Cable approaching l/t support of daily 89 ema (1.6672) and wkly 21 ma (1.6654) - a break of the wkly is critical because white space underneath to 1.63

GVI Forex Blog 15:20 GMT May 28, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The euro is testing three-month lows on continued dovish ECB speak and another round of weak EU data, including French consumer spending, EU money supply and German unemployment.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Equity Markets Pull Back After Hitting Fresh Record Highs

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:18 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Maybe it is my imagination but this feels like a reluctant market today - maybe it is just my sixth sense speaking but there should be some trade calls

- if anyone is trading, give us a shout as we have finally has some decent moves. Still less than 50 pip range in EURUSD but over 100 in GBPUSD and more in GBPJPY.

EURUSD 1.36 sets its tone going forwards now...

Milan Louie 14:32 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

The invisible hand became the invisible man! haha!

GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:08 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD

From GVIForex and well played by JP (rate was around 1.6750 at the time of this post).

Wednesday's Trading Outlook
Mtl JP 12:22 GMT 05/28/2014 - My Profile
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: market Target: 100 dma Stop: slightly above 1.68

x fingers and a prayer to the fx goddess of goodwill

GVI Forex Blog 13:43 GMT May 28, 2014 Reply   
May 28, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 29. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, Industrial Output, EZ- Holiday (partial), CH- Holiday, CA- Current Account, GDP. US- GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Homes Sales.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 29, 2014

GVI Forex john 13:41 GMT May 28, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


May 28, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 29. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, Industrial Output, EZ- Holiday (partial), CH- Holiday, CA- Current Account, GDP. US- GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Homes Sales.

  • Far East: JP_ Retail Sales, Industrial Output.
  • Europe: EZ- Holiday (partial), CH- Holiday.
  • North America: CA- Current Account, GDP. US- GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Homes Sales. Natural Gas, Weekly Crude, 7-yr Auction.


GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:30 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

abel, have you turned off your bull cap?

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:30 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

That spike to 1.3628 turned out to be an early Xmas gift as 1.36 breaks. No news that I have seen and 1.36 now sets the tone.

Buyers beware as long as sub-200 day mva trades.

jkt abel 13:27 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Jay, bali sja is defending it.
He will make sure it close above 1.36 later :)

GVI Forex john 13:15 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURJPY

You can see below we have it at 138.36 Both are in the ballpark of each other.

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD GVI Forex john 11:50 GMT 05/28/2014 - My Profile

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:13 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURJPY
Reply   
138.33 = 200 day mva

Has not been below it since 2012

NY JM 12:57 GMT May 28, 2014
Global Markets News

US 10-year yield still falling, last 2.47%

USDJPY (lower) sensitive to US yield moves

I have still not seen an explanation for the way US bonds are trading other than the boat is overloaded on one side betting on 3.00%

Mtl JP 12:30 GMT May 28, 2014
Global Markets News

it is one mother of a nightmare. financially & ecologically
no wonder politicians love it.

GVI Forex john 12:24 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.498%.

Lets see what the U.S. does at these levels.

GVI Forex john 12:21 GMT May 28, 2014
Global Markets News

JP- interesting report on fracking. Seems like several reports recently are suggesting it might not be the panacea it had been cracked up to be

GVIForex 12:12 GMT May 28, 2014
NZD
Reply   
Approaching .8473 = 100 day mva

GVI Forex john 12:03 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
Up until an hour ago, S&P futures and USDJPY had been trading in tandem. S&P has since flat-lined nd the USDJPY subsequently stabilized as well. S&P futures appear to have been in the lead so far today after closing at a record high yesterday.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:52 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Someone is still defending 1.3600 so it seems.

GVI Forex john 11:50 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

JM- Good point re buyers. Look at the first column of our EUR Heat Map below. Its all red which means that spot EURUSD is beneath every key moving average (5-200). That means if you are trading from the long side, you are swimming UPSTREAM against the current. Scalping with a close stop can work in this environment, but this is not a "buy and hold" market when the trend is so strong.

Thoughts? Other ideas?

EUR Moving averages for Wednesday. Basis Tuesday session...



GVI Forex john 11:39 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

No idea if its true, but I keep hearing that someone is protecting 1.3600. (option??). Note Jay cites technical levels around 1.3550-60 as key. I try to deal with what we can reasonably get. My focus is on the psychological 1.3600 line today.

As for the holiday tomorrow, this holiday is less important than it once was. Almost all the major Continental markets will be open.

NY JM 11:35 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Most trade calls this week have been on the EURUSD buy side. May I ask why? We must be looking at different charts.

Is anyone short?

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:33 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree of Disagree? GBPUSD

I posted this yesterday (last 1.6745)

Agree of Disagree? GBPUSD
GVIForex Jay Meisler 17:20 GMT 05/27/2014 - My Profile
1.6729 is a level, which if firmly broken, would confirm a downtrend and target 1.6658 = 100 day mva

Otherwise, 1.68 sets its tone.

Agree?

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:27 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD


Video Market Update

Is the invisible hand holding up the EURUSD?

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:18 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

21 pip range so far today - 1.3616-37 - too tight to last for long but hems in both sides until broken'

Holiday tomorrow, end of month argue for a thin end to the week and I am saying this on a Wednesday.

it would be nice to see another short squeeze but that would be a hope trade more than one based on the current risk on downside.

No change to the current risk
if 1.3600-12 is firmly broken => risk to 1.3559-62 => if broken then 1.3475-00. Only 1.3838-42+ would slow this risk.

Perth WTR 11:18 GMT May 28, 2014
buy euro
Reply   
bought 1.3616, adding lower, stop all below 1.3533

Mtl JP 11:11 GMT May 28, 2014
Global Markets News

at $104.30 WTI crude frolicking around Friday's $104.35
-
Shakeout Threatens Shale Patch as Frackers Go for Broke - bbrg

and may be a bargain at these price levels.

GVI Forex Blog 10:17 GMT May 28, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Technical factors appeared to be aiding the USD thus increasing the potential for volatility in trading. Some analysts note that 2-year US yields were starting to show signs of rebounding from the lower end of the recent range and to benefit the greenback

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: France data continues to disappoint; Euro continues to test below 200 day MA

GVI Forex john 10:00 GMT May 28, 2014
May 2014 UK CBI Distributive Trades

Disappointing UK data.

GVI Forex john 10:00 GMT May 28, 2014
May 2014 UK CBI Distributive Trades
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

16 vs. 35 exp. vs. 30 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

nw kw 09:58 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

5y is new target for a change or adjust for new growth target

nw kw 09:54 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

they were long world growth charts to long /or bonds

GVI Forex john 09:47 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I am uncertain about why the U.S. 10-yr drifted lower Tuesday in NY while the S&P 500 was making new all-time highs. The story does not hang together. The only possible explanation might be flight-to-safety demand, but I don't see a trigger for that. Currently is back to 2.50% from 2.55% on Monday.

London Chris 09:31 GMT May 28, 2014
eurgbp

I read vague talk that GbP weakness may be coming from end of month interest rate repats.

GVI Forex john 09:06 GMT May 28, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Daily USD based Pivot Points. Basis previous session ranges...




GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT May 28, 2014
May 2014 EZ Consumer Confidence Final
Reply   




ALERT
-7.1 vs. -7.1 est vs. -7.1 prev.


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Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Blog 08:53 GMT May 28, 2014
German Unemployment Data Unexpectedly Weaken. Calendar from the U.S. is Light.
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- 5-yr Auction German May Unemployment data unexpectedly increased when another modest fall in jobless had been anticipated. The EURUSD is modestly lower. The ECB meets next in a weeks time

German Unemployment Data Unexpectedly Weaken. Calendar from the U.S. is Light.

GVI Forex 08:50 GMT May 28, 2014
UK Data
Reply   
In a very light day for key data, second tier releases should attract more interest than usual. Domestically, the CBI distributive trade survey will provide the first insight into retail activity for May, ahead of the BRC and official data. The official retail sales release for April reported a sharp 1.3% rise, which may have been due in part to an Easter effect. Today’s survey will be watched for signs as to whether or not activity remained buoyant this month. It has previously suggested that retailers have reported a significant pick up in annual sales against a backdrop of rising confidence. This has been mirrored in the expected sales balance, which rose to its highest level in over three years and points to some acceleration in annual sales growth in May.


Lloyds Bank

GVI Forex john 08:44 GMT May 28, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • Early in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are broadly lower and thus they are in a risk-off posture ahead of the ECB in just over a week.  Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are mixed.
  • Equities rose broadly in the Far East earlier as they followed the Tuesday U.S. lead. European bourses are modestly lower.  U.S. equity futures are up slightly.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.50%, -3bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


CT LV 08:44 GMT May 28, 2014
eurgbp

eurgbp
nw kw 08:34 GMT 05/28/2014
gbp is soft and eur hear for the ride
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What do you mean with: eur hear for the ride?

nw kw 08:34 GMT May 28, 2014
eurgbp

gbp is soft and eur hear for the ride

London Chris 08:32 GMT May 28, 2014
eurgbp

Red any idea who or what flow is lifting eirgbp?

GVI Forex john 08:16 GMT May 28, 2014
May 2014 German Unemployment

It seems that no one has been listening, but I try to look at ALL the data as objectively as possible and German, as opposed to Eurozone, data recently have seen a number of weak readings. Keep in mind that Germany is the economic powerhouse of the EZ.

GVI Forex john 08:11 GMT May 28, 2014
May 2014 German Unemployment

German Unemployment UNEXPECTEDLY rises (lower is better). Unemployment rate steady.


GVI Forex john 07:58 GMT May 28, 2014
May 2014 German Unemployment

German number of unemployed unexpectedly increase. Higher unemployment is a negative development. EURUSD weaker.

GVI Forex john 07:56 GMT May 28, 2014
May 2014 German Unemployment
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
rate:6.70% vs. 6.70% exp. vs. 6.70% prev.
change: +24K vs. -15k exp. vs. -25K (r ) prev.


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Direct links to primary data sources

london red 06:51 GMT May 28, 2014
eurgbp
Reply   
10 day ma. if above here, 8160(8144) possible

GVI Forex Blog 05:05 GMT May 28, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA APR INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: 9.6% V 10.7% PRIOR; YTD Y/Y: 10.0% V 10.1% PRIOR >- (AU) AUSTRALIA APR WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M: -0.5% (biggest decline in 5 years) V 0.0% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRAL

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China industrial profits growth slows further; Fonterra lowers milk price for FY14 by 20% - Source TradeTheNews.com

Hong Kong AceTrader 04:09 GMT May 28, 2014
AceTrader May 28: Daily Market outlook on USD/JPY
Reply   

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 101.93

Update Time: 28 May 2014 01:33GMT

The greenback extended up move from last Wednesday's 3-1/2 month low at 100.81 to 102.14 on improved risk appetite due to dollar's broad-based strength after the release of robust U.S. economic data, suggesting a stronger retracement of decline from April's high at 104.13 would be seen and further gain to 102.36 resistance is envisaged, however, reckon 102.86 should cap upside and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only a breach of 101.60 support would signal the recovery is over instead and may bring weakness to 101.35 support level.

GVI Forex Blog 03:37 GMT May 28, 2014 Reply   
There is a contraction visible in Dow (16675.50, +0.42%) as both the rallies and the drops

Morning Briefing : 28-May-2014 -0336 GMT

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:21 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

sf please email me

syd sf 02:09 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Fx Trading has changed alot - and now it comes down to several factors.

* each trading session has been looked at - and bots configured to trade according to time vs session

* correlation trading dominates so that no market is on its own - and more times than not FX just provides backdrop liquidity and not direction

* sticking your neck out and taking extra risk or using more leverage just is not rewarded due to what you mentioned - paint drying / time management.

* not only that but the technology operates more efficiently as each month goes by.

So you can adapt and make a living - or try to over leverage and wipe out your account a few times and quit.

To give you an idea on how my style has developed - I have short term trading bots / correlation bots / longer term bots and commodity market bots .. some have trailing s/l some have fixed s/l each optimized for the market they deal .. so they give as little away as is possible.

As you can see it is no secret because the market goes into the same or similar patterns each day .. and like most I disable my bots over news ... anyway study / learn / optimize and find a method that will move beyond the rest of 2014.

best of luck.

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:05 GMT May 28, 2014
AceTrader May 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views


28 May 2014 01:13GMT

USD/MAJ
Fed's Lockhart says:
Labor market tightening in certain industries and regions, points to skilled trades in places like Louisiana's oil sector;
Some aspects of labor market may be approaching full employment, others remain very weak;
No strong preference whether taper ends in October or December;
Important to global system that U.S. follow all BASEL requirements;
Fed still in early days of testing new tools for controlling future interest rates;
Inflation above 2 percent should not be ruled out, says a measured overshoot is ok up to 2.5 percent;
Fed should continue reinvesting bond proceeds until it begins to raise rates.
"considers long-term neutral Fed funds rate at around 4%; does not believe economy will be weak over the long run; does not believe there is a skills mismatch between jobs and job-seekers, feels stronger growth will absorb labor slack."

Economy should rebound to near 3 percent growth in Q2 after poor start;
Despite optimism, Fed still needs patience, "confirming evidence" of sustainable growth before lifting interest rates;
No rush to raise rates, sees no increase until second half of 2015;
Transition to rate increases will need careful execution and clear communication;
Labor market still slack and well short of full employment;
Improvement in labor outlook will be steady but not "dramatic";
Inflation will increase to the Fed's target only over the medium term.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:38 GMT May 28, 2014
Max McKegg's EURUSD Forecast
Reply   
Max's forecast for today (chart not posted). Send me an EMAIL for a free one month access

** EURO/US DOLLAR - MEDIUM TERM VIEW **

MAY 9th,1.3835 - The Euros rallied nicely toward my 1.4000 Target before Reversing & 1.3900/1.3950 now contains for sell-off to the 1.3300 level.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

. *EUR/USD DAILY UPDATE* MAY 28th, 1.3635

*** DAILY SUPPORTS *** Euro found resistance at 1.3660/1.3685 as
Support /3615/3570/3525/ expected yesterday & 1.3670 should now cap

*** DAILY RESISTANCES *** to enable a sell-off below 1.3615 support
Resistance /3650/3670/3685/ toward 1.3575 enroute to the 1.3525 level.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Livingston nh 01:15 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Last week EUR broke and remained below the long term support daily 144 ema - today the 21 dma (1.3751) crossed the 55 ema (1.3753) this has happened three times since last summer but the 21 dma moved back above quickly - the 21 has not crossed below the 89 ema (1.3736) during this period // Both the 21 dma and 55 ema could cross below the 89 ema this week -- resistance levels are moving lower in tandem so it may be harder to move higher

Chicago AGA 00:56 GMT May 28, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

These periods of little movement and watching paint dry can really wear on your nerves.

It would be nice to get a flush out but.....

 




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