dc CB 23:41 GMT May 29, 2014
da Flatner
Reply
As the chart below shows, while Dealer holdings of bonds in the 3 - 6 Year bucket are down to -$12.6 billion as of the latest week of May 16, or the lowest position since June 2011, they have just taken their holdings in the 11Y+ long end to $11.9 billion: the most long they have been in the farthest part of the curve since June of 2013.
So if one were to net these two buckets out, by subtracting net exposure in the 3-6 Year bucket from the 11 Year bucket, one would see just how "flat" or "steep" dealers are positioned. The result is shown below: it shows that a rough estimation of curve positioning has Primary Dealers positioned for the flattest bond market (long the long end, short the short end) the most since November 2011 when, as many will recall, Europe was on the verge of complete collapse and only yet another Fed-backed global bailout prevented the all out disintegration of the Eurozone!
Bottom line: while dealers are telling their clients to dump the long end immediately due to everyone mispricing economic growth and inflation prospects, and to expect the long awaited curve steepening any minute now, what are they doing? They are the flattest they have been in two and a half years! In other words, buying.
As Primary Dealers And Banks Bash Treasurys, Here Is What They Are Really Doing
GVI Forex john 21:58 GMT May 29, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply
FRIDAY 30 May 2014
Japan-
CPI - The BOJ wants to extricate Japan from deflation. Core CPI
seem 3.60% (subtract -2.70% for sales tax hike.).
Germany;
Retail Sales- Key for
Germany since its recent economic strength has been consumer-led. Very
unusual.
United States-
University of Michigan Survey. Closely watched
MONDAY 2 June 2014
United States
Final Markit Mfg PMI- Relatively new PMI .Not fully trusted
yet.
ISM MFG PMI- Original Mfg PMI measure. Closely followed.Ben showing
strength.
TUESDAY 3 June 2014
Australia
Reserve Bank Decision- No Rate change expected. Key event.
dc CB 20:46 GMT May 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Sept 10Y futures off over 1/2 point from high
30Y futures off over a full point.
OOOOPPPPPs
Livingston nh 19:04 GMT May 29, 2014
ECB
Reply
ECB will postpone any form of QE but certainly cut interest rates - BUT will it actually move to negative rates?? - across a large diverse economic unit like the EUR zone what are the unintended consequences?? what effect on the EU states outside the EUR?? --- it seems negative rates are "priced in" but picture a Draghi presser explaining why the idea was rejected
EUR could take a wild ride
GVI Forex Blog 19:01 GMT May 29, 2014
Weak Japanese Retail Sales. Data from U.S. Mixed
Reply
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- CPI, DE- Retail Sales, CH- KOF Survey, CA- GDP. US- Personal Income, PCE deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan
U.S.1Q14 GDP was a disappointment, as it was revised down by more than anticipated. The focus now turns to the current quarter, where a strong rebound is being priced in.. Weekly Jobless Claims improved by more than expected. However, Pending Homes Sales fell short of expectations. That signals upcoming poor Existing Homes data.
Weak Japanese Retail Sales. Data from U.S. Mixed
dc CB 18:47 GMT May 29, 2014
Global Markets News
*US JUSTICE DEPT SEEKS >$10B BNP PENALTY FOR SANCTIONS EVASION: WSJ
A final resolution (and a guilty plea) of the years long investigation of the French bank is likely weeks away, WSJ notes but it does remain ironic that in flexing his enforcement muscles, DoJ's Eric Holder is about to crucify yet another non-US bank.
No Holders Barred: DOJ Slams BNP With Multi-Billion Dollar Penalty
dc CB 18:42 GMT May 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
there should be treas buying on Mon as the start of the month will get new money into funds...and treas are winners this year so.
Stox should also be up. Infact everything should be up early next week. lol
london red 18:34 GMT May 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
10 year. pretty long wick on daily candle. last time flipped this far was mid march. if we close half a point lower from here tomorrow then weekly candle comes in for false break and 2014 high in you would think given forecasts for growth.
dc CB 17:59 GMT May 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
woops...US treas puking. must have filled all those month end adjustments...first notice futures day done...Auctions Over for the month
30ybond futures looking to tag a full Point off the Highs wooo wooo
tomorrows Window Dress Day for Stox
GVI Forex Blog 17:13 GMT May 29, 2014
Reply
May 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- CPI, DE- Retail Sales, CH- KOF Survey, CA- GDP. US- Personal Income, PCE deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 30, 2014
GVI Forex john 17:11 GMT May 29, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply
May 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 30.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- CPI, DE- Retail Sales, CH- KOF Survey, CA- GDP. US- Personal
Income, PCE deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan
- Far East: JP- Unemployment, CPI.
- Europe: DE- Retail Sales, CH- KOF Survey.
- North America: CA- GDP. US- Personal Income, PCE deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan, COT Report.
SaaR KaL 16:52 GMT May 29, 2014
Next 12 hrs Ranges
Reply
EURUSD 1.3628 1.3557
Gold 1,267.0115 1,236.5552
Cable 1.6729 1.6605
Silver
19.1061 18.6920
EURJPY
138.0536 137.3557
USDJPY
101.4770 101.1008
GBPJPY
169.4290 168.1808
AUDUSD 0.9366 0.9269 (***)
EURAUD
1.4639 1.4534
NZDUSD
0.8487 0.8399
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:46 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
So here we are, one day to month end.
GBPUSD is holding just above 1.67 but unable to go far from it.
EURUSD is holding just above 1.36, with its upside capped around 1.3625. Range has been around 39 pips, pitiful by historic standards although the chop makes it feel like more.
US bond yields continue to fall. Either the bond market is telling us something about the state of the economy or it is just one mother of a short squeeze and a gift of a lifetime.
So let's look ahead to next week where how it ends will be most important as it will suggest whether we will have a chance at a summer trend, depending on how the EURUSD trades.
Right now we have a tug-of-war with commodity currencies and JPY moving towards the top of the fx food chain and EUR and GBP towards the lower end.
Livingston nh 16:40 GMT May 29, 2014
Global Markets News
That research paper from yellen's former habitat is the kind of cover that is being produced throughout the Fed -- an excuse for standing still in the money minefield the Fed has created // one Fed talker this week said 2.5% could be tolerated -- oh wait, we already have a 3mo CPI at 2.4%
Forward Guidance thru the rearview mirror
GVI Forex Blog 16:26 GMT May 29, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply
Traders are talking about another piece by the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath, who commented on a recent San Francisco Fed research paper examining the interplay between long-term unemployment and inflation. The paper asserted that the FOMC may need to allow inflation to overshoot for a time in order to cut long-term unemployment, a position that splits the difference between two tendencies at the Fed.
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: GDP Wipeout Sends Stocks and USTs higher
GVI Forex john 16:06 GMT May 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
you might have to refresh your page to update the table. Note U.S. yield have fallen significantly while prime Europe closed mixed. Curious pattern especially with peripheral EZ yields rising.
Is this mainly a U.S. story?
GVI Forex john 15:59 GMT May 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
- Late in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are
mixed on the day. They have not followed the sharp decline in U.S.
yields. Some centers were closed for a holiday.�
Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are mostly
higher.
- Equities mostly fell in the Far East earlier as they
followed the Wednesday U.S. lead.
European bourses ended mixed. U.S. equities are up.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.41%, -4bp.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
london red 15:38 GMT May 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
yes almost everyone is 3-4.5% for q2.you cannot justify a 2.x if q2 does come in at 4%. they kitchen sinked the inventories but still a jump from -1 to 4% is a big ask. 10 year however is pricing in 1-1.5%.
dc CB 15:19 GMT May 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
-1.0% GDP print was merely more good news, .....weaker than expected Q1 GDP will merely lead to a greater than expected rebound in Q2 GDP.
*1Q inventory decline suggests 2Q GDP rebound of 3.8% annual rate.
* �around 3%� in 2Q as well as second half of year
*2Q GDP at 4.5% annual rate
Bottom line: someone is dead wrong on the economy, but we are glad that the weathermen formerly known as economists are putting all these timestamps out there in the public domain. Because we eagerly look forward to seeing just what the scapegoat will be when Q2 GDP mysteriously fails to soar to 4%
Someone Is Dead Wrong About The Economy
GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
I posted one of our COT charts yesterday that showed as of Tuesday of last week traders were back shorting the 10-yr note for the umpteenth time this year. Short-covering again?
SaaR KaL 14:59 GMT May 29, 2014
Day's Trades
Selling gold and silver
More
+ Longs USDCAD adding
GVI Forex john 14:55 GMT May 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
2.406%
You can't ignore the fact that yields turned south following lousy Pending Homes and GDP data...
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:48 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Trading question is whether the fx market wakes up to falling US yields (although yields are lower elsewhere as well).
GVI Forex john 14:40 GMT May 29, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
I don't know how you can spin it positively. NAR is the housing selling industry group, so we know what their bias is.
dc CB 14:28 GMT May 29, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
"Pending home sales improved for the second straight month in April"
guess it depends on what timeframe you look at it and choose spin.
Amman wfakhoury 14:17 GMT May 29, 2014
EURUSD 13628 confirmed
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:54 GMT 05/29/2014
_____________________________
It was 13619 when 13628 cofirmed ..so it has to return to 13601 before go again to 13628.
GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT May 29, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
WASHINGTON (May 29, 2014) � Pending home sales improved for the second straight month in April, according to the National Association of Realtors�. Gains in the Midwest and Northeast offset declines in the West and South.
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 0.4 percent to 97.8 in April from 97.4 in March, but is 9.2 percent below April 2013 when it was 107.7.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expects a gradual uptrend in home sales. �Higher inventory levels are giving buyers more choices, and a slight decline in mortgage interest rates this spring is raising prospective home buyers� confidence,� he said. �An uptrend in closed sales is expected, although some months will encounter a modest setback.�...
Pending Home Sales Edge Up in April
Amman wfakhoury 14:10 GMT May 29, 2014
EURUSD 13628 confirmed
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:54 GMT 05/29/2014
-_______________________________
13628 still cofirmed....but any decline below 13601 will return to it..we need 1 hr bar to close above 13601 and keep above it to reach 13628.
GVI Forex john 14:10 GMT May 29, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
CHART: Pending Homes sales data misses vs. expectations a strong reading was expected as the winter weather rolled out of the data.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:54 GMT May 29, 2014
EURUSD 13628 confirmed
WFakhoury, let us know if your signal changes in the EURUSD.
1.3628 was my resistance as well, more for a sell than a target but even on the lousy GBP print could not be reached.
SaaR KaL 13:49 GMT May 29, 2014
Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 09:45 GMT 05/29/2014 - My Profile
GBPCHF
1.4990 1.4909
1.5029 short would be nice
===
now shorting
SaaR KaL 13:04 GMT May 29, 2014
Day's Trades
USDJPY
Close USA
101.5042 101.1165
I just shorted as well
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:01 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Market ignoring the lousy Q1 GDP revision, not a surprise but would have been nice to see a better pop to fade. As per the video, stay bearish as long as sub-200 day mva.
Amman wfakhoury 12:57 GMT May 29, 2014
EURUSD 13628 confirmed
Reply
13628 confirmed will be reached ..any decline below 13603 will return to it if 13628 did not reach
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
GVI Forex john 12:50 GMT May 29, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p
Looking at the GDP chart as a technician, I don't see much improvement since 1Q10. I think the best tool may be the 4 quartter moving average, which appeas to be working lower?
london red 12:49 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
eurgbp short at 50 will add 60-67 if seen. stop will be a little above there. looking for weekly/monthly close below 8167 fib. 20 day ma currently capping risk to 8191 fib if taken. will try again there if trade fails. target 8114 and lower.
GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT May 29, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Weekly Jobless claims data improves.
Click on chart for ten-year history
GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT May 29, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p
1Q14 (annualized) Revised to -1.00% Hard to spin this.
london red 12:25 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
cable below 16688 opens up 16605 which should be as low as it goes before a minimum 100 point/multiday rally.
london red 12:09 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
JM, think we need to do 13570/40 cover into ecb meet. cant see below 13490 ahead of that meet. looking for eurgbp close below 8160 friday use any rally to sell 55-67.
tokyo ginko 11:26 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GDP will come better expected..USD will rally...and US stocks will be firm..
GVI Forex john 11:11 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply
For the last several hours, the S&P has been trading dead flat and USDJPY has been trading flat along with it. So once again we are wondering which market is going to lead, and where is it headed. One thing I have noticed over the years is that U.S. equity markets rarely follow the lead of overseas trading. We will see what happens today. Participation might be slightly reduced on the Continent, but most of the major markets, plus London are open.
The 10-yr yield is virtually unchanged from late Wednesday at 2.435%
PAR 09:52 GMT May 29, 2014
Free Markets
Reply
Companies buy back their own shares and governments thru their central banks buy back their own bonds .
SaaR KaL 09:45 GMT May 29, 2014
Day's Trades
GBPCHF
1.4990 1.4909
1.5029 short would be nice
SaaR KaL 09:34 GMT May 29, 2014
Day's Trades
NDX
3,756.7541 3,714.1530
EURAUD
1.4660 1.4579
(1.4700 short is good)
EURGBP
0.8165 0.8135
GVI Forex john 09:33 GMT May 29, 2014
April 2014 Japan Retail Sales
Big spike in March sales (pre-sales tax hike) seeing some payback in April. These data are worth watching closely in the immediate future.
SaaR KaL 09:28 GMT May 29, 2014
Day's Trades
Silver
19.0117 18.6078
Gold
1,255.1454 1,226.8376
1261 is good sell
SaaR KaL 09:22 GMT May 29, 2014
Day's Trades
other pairs close
GBPAUD 1.7978 1.7899
GBPCAD 1.8142 1.8055
GBPNZD 1.9800 1.9665
(a Buy at 1.9638 )
GVI Forex john 09:20 GMT May 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
- Early in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are
broadly lower today following the sharp decline in U.S. yields
yesterday. Some centers are closed for a holiday.
Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are mostly a touch
higher.
- Equities mostly fell in the Far East earlier as they
followed the Wednesday U.S. lead.
European bourses are mixed. U.S. equity futures are up
slightly.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.43%, -2bp.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
SaaR KaL 09:17 GMT May 29, 2014
Day's Trades
NZDUSD
Close 0.8468 0.8376
I just shorted that too
SaaR KaL 09:14 GMT May 29, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
USA Close Ranges
EURJPY 137.9103 137.0304
GBPJPY 169.3161 167.9072
USDCHF 0.9017 0.8969
USDCAD 1.0911 1.0860
KL KL 08:57 GMT May 29, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!! Sell
covering 4/5 short audusd here .93013.....add more shorts again above .9319......
Wow...precision Ninja.....LOL last post ...off to bed!!...see you in 7 hours when Yankees .... do battle with Ninja!!
SaaR KaL 08:51 GMT May 29, 2014
euro
cable
seems to want to close
1.6690 to 1.6565
I doubt it goes higher then 1.6740 by much
SaaR KaL 08:48 GMT May 29, 2014
euro
i doubt eurusd goes above 1.3617
close range
1.3585 to 1.3510 for usa
london red 08:41 GMT May 29, 2014
euro
Reply
euro. previous hourly candle has long tail, is now a marker as to whether we trade 13560/40 or not today. any longs 135xx can use tail as stop, raising to under 13599 if 13610 is cleared - its possible we get further short covering ahead of gdp later on as almost certain to be downgraded to negative for q1. most are expecting a negative 0.5 to 0.8%.
KL KL 08:38 GMT May 29, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!! Sell
in again .93105....relentless Sell!!
DFM - don't follow me
DYOR - do your own research
imvho - in my VERY humble opinion
gl gt - good luck good trade..
LOL - laughing out loud.......LOL
KL KL 06:46 GMT May 29, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!! Sell
out and cover 5/6 AUDUSD short here .9288..no need to be greedy when relentless....add more above .93 later.....short covering or funny bizness??
Jeddah Abb 06:21 GMT May 29, 2014
sell
Reply
Sell
Entry: Target: Stop:
also i sell GbpCad at 1.8170 target below 1.81-180..
Jeddah 06:18 GMT May 29, 2014
sell
Reply
Sell GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
trying to sell GbpJpy at actual price 170.04 target below 168..
KL KL 06:18 GMT May 29, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!! Sell
Reply
In short relentless .09295...unceasing...as much as my finger can cope with clicking.....LOL
DFM...DYOR...imvho and gl gt....see if can chase it higher and cover near .9290..... the No NEED to be greedy trade...LOL
Hong Kong Ahe 03:25 GMT May 29, 2014
AUDUSD
AL, thank you very much ;)
Dillon AL 03:23 GMT May 29, 2014
AUDUSD
two dates one for May 30th the other June 30th
Hong Kong Ahe 03:07 GMT May 29, 2014
AUDUSD
Today up is temporary or the last as expectation figure is only an illusion. Target the 200 day moving average of AUDUSD 0.9173 and MVG(100) 0.9114.
Hong Kong Ahe 02:55 GMT May 29, 2014
AUDUSD
Thank you AL for the chart, June 30th or May30th?
Dillon AL 02:54 GMT May 29, 2014
AUDUSD
Looking at the chart I posted there is a clear 21 day cycle. we are currently at day 19 and the next major cycle date thereafter is June 30th
Hong Kong Ahe 02:40 GMT May 29, 2014
AUDUSD
When all data are negative, you can't explain why AUD is pushing up. They picked up a expectation figure on next year for the excuse. I am sitting here to see how long it would last before all small fishes are on their net.
Dillon AL 02:26 GMT May 29, 2014
AUDUSD
they say a picture tells a thousand words
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:19 GMT May 29, 2014
AceTrader May 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
29 May 2014 01:32GMT
USD/JPY - 101.70
New on BOJ's Shirai speech:
Positive cycle of output, income, expenditure likely to continue in Japan;
Downside risks subsiding somewhat but still need to be mindful of them;
Japan prices likely to gradually rise around 4Q 2014;
Will take some time for medium-, long-term inflation expectations of households to rise as a trend;
Downside risks on Japan price outlook subsiding somewhat, but still need monitoring;
Must scrutinise economy, price moves after second sales tax hike to see whether 2 pct inflation will be sustained stably;
My economy, price forecasts are made on assumption QQE will be maintained beyond 2015;
Feel Japan will need more than 2 years to achieve 2 pct inflation under current flexible inflation targeting;
Expectations of households to rise as a trend.
00:51GMT
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang says will adopt timely and moderate "fine tuning" of economic policy;
fundamental fiscal and monetary policy will remain intact.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan retail sales, Australia HIA new home sales, private capital expenditure, China leading index, Canada current account balance, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, core PCE, initial jobless claims, pending home sales.
Dillon AL 02:05 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
JP. To plagiarise a recent comment from a so called regulator
it just sounds like pure front running by the first class who pay more money to board the airplane first
In days of old these guys would have been prosecuted for churning and inside information and not playing in a level playing field
Just as Syd showed from his article and Jay has written about in Adapt or Die one has to be flexible and rather than fight the Algo one needs to align oneself with them as I have written and stated many times over many years both here and in magazines
Be aware of their weakness in being a market maker or so called liquidity provider
Hong Kong Ahe 01:44 GMT May 29, 2014
AUDUSD
Reply
Why AUD/USD rises? The data released all I read are negative? It doesn't make sense for the rise.
Mtl JP 01:41 GMT May 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
AL does it not sound like superior savvy programming running on top of top physical hardware ?
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.