Dillon AL 23:27 GMT May 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
John As I have previously posted here
There are some (5 that I can think of immediately) very old and significant bond funds operating out of Belgium each one of which has multi hundred billion (300+) AUM
Note these are asset managment funds entirely focused in the fixed income sphere
Dillon AL 23:14 GMT May 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
John
Treasury securities are maintained in book-entry form in either the Reserve Banks' Fedwire Securities Service or the Treasury's TreasuryDirect system, which is also operated by the Reserve Banks.
No such thing as bearer bonds as in days of old so the holdings by Belgium are not actually held outside the US system at all
nw kw 22:07 GMT May 30, 2014
Gold down due to El Nino
xaunzd top heavy golds not going fare in this trading enviermant /monitoring nzd interest rate
Livingston nh 21:04 GMT May 30, 2014
Greece
Everybody involved w/ Greece is stuck on this tar baby - if the coalition fails and Syriza wins (see EU elections) the populists will disavow "austerity" -- at that point IMF may balk and EU will have a hard choice (both will probably fold but should be good for some trades)
New York JKn 20:27 GMT May 30, 2014
Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
I don't think this will have a positive impact.
It just reinforces the status quo that we know already4.6 billion in aid for Greece
GVI Forex john 20:15 GMT May 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
All I can say is that the markets are almost always disappointed by events like this. It seems the policy-makers never do enough.
As for Draghi, I like him, but he is man of many words but little action.
Paris ib 20:08 GMT May 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
They seem to be talking even more recently and it makes me uneasy. Don't they just get to set mobetary policy and then scoot. More and more they sound like liars and frauds. Or lost. Which is worse. This next ECB meeting is going to be a doozy. Market going into it all hyped and their entire objective is to keep the Euro from rallying. Which they call keeping imported inflAtion from falling too low.
GVI Forex john 19:49 GMT May 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
They talk all the time because they are academics. They love to pontificate.
Paris ib 19:35 GMT May 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
John it's weird isn't it? I had the thought myself. All these ECB types over here are starting to sound like used car salesmen. What is the problem exactly that they need to talk all the time? Are they worried? Should we be? Or is manipulating financial markets part of their mandate now?
Hong Kong Ahe 19:19 GMT May 30, 2014
Stagnant market
Reply
The market is in stagnant narrow range (nearly not moving) every Friday after UK session closed. I wonder what are the people doing in US afternoon session in recent years. It looks like there is some changes of the trading behavior. It is so boring and I missed those years in 90's.
GVI Forex john 19:10 GMT May 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Lots of Fedspeak today. I saw nothing of special note, but even the doves could get a job on CNBC touting stocks. Although they are not talking up interest rates yet, the all are bullish on the economy. It may be they feel that their "job" is to promote confidence?
Paris ib 17:11 GMT May 30, 2014
Gold down due to El Nino
John - unfortunately the refusal of the NY FED to hand over the Gold they supposedly still hold for the Germans - as well as ongoing scandals regarding price manipulation of the 'paper' gold market - means that 'paper' markets are becoming increasingly compromised. The failure of financial centres to properly police and regulate 'paper' markets means that increasingly those markets are not trusted. Talk about a death knell. I don't buy this idea that China and India make the price. When little bits of paper certifying that you hold gold (some place else) turn out to be just bits of paper.... that's trouble for the paper price. We haven't even seen the start of the paper gold price panic IMVHO. What worries me is the follow on impact on other 'paper' markets. Remember the flash crash? No real explanation was given... but all our markets are hostage to these events.
Gold for Delivery
dc CB 17:06 GMT May 30, 2014
Gold down due to El Nino
one of the better explanations.
The Chinese bought JPMorgans NY headquarters, which contains in the sub basement, JPM's storied gold vault. Why would JPM sell the building, much less its vault to the Chinese.
JPM is now acting as an agent for the Chinese in their(the Chinese) mover to acquire Phys Gold. The price of Gold will not be allowed to rise until the Chinese have all the gold they want.
PS: considering that JPM helped to crash the world and yet came out on top, this may not be that far fetched. :))))
Paris ib 17:01 GMT May 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
John - on what basis is it 'broadly accepted' that China is behind the Belgian buying? Is this just market talk or something more?
I continue to believe that the so-called recovery will prove to be a chimera. It's a bit worrying but better to face reality.
Global trade is so weak that even China accepts that's it... and has said as much. When the great exporter faces facts I think it's time we all did. We have the journalists and the pundits and the politicians all telling us how this recovery is taking hold but the in the real world:
Global Trade in the real world
GVI Forex john 16:57 GMT May 30, 2014
Gold down due to El Nino
As for gold, its seems the speculative fervor around the yellow metal has greatly diminished. Demand earlier had been mainly from India and China
GVI Forex john 16:52 GMT May 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
ib- I think it is pretty broadly accepted that the "Belgian" buying is China. My best guess is that they want to buy U.S Treasuries but to hold them out of the control of the U.S. government.
It looks like U.S. shares may be selling off into the weekend. If that materializes, bonds could get a bid. There is a lot of major data coming out next week. We could know a lot more exactly one week from now.
Paris ib 16:50 GMT May 30, 2014
Gold down due to El Nino
More interestingly though is this: what does it mean about the United States? We have the strange happenings in the U.S. Treasury market and the failure to deliver by the Yanks in the Gold market. Not confidence inspiring.
Paris ib 16:48 GMT May 30, 2014
Gold down due to El Nino
Face it RF the market is mega long GOLD and all the doom and gloomers are predicting that Gold will rocket higher. That has been the story for quite some time. Meanwhile it has dawned on some (since the NY FED refused to hand over the Gold they supposedly were holding for the Germans) that anything that is not actually physical Gold is probably worthless. Which is why the price of paper Gold has been falling ever since the NY Fed refused the hand over. So we have two markets: the paper market (which is hopelessly compromised) and the real physical market. The paper market is probably going to zero. So you can collect physical and wait but to play the paper market is a fool's game. What that means for financial markets in general and the entire derivatives mess is anyone's guess. My feeling is that the story won't end well.
Paris ib 16:27 GMT May 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
John whatever is going on in the U.S. bond market needs watching and explaining. On the one hand we have the mysterious Belgian buying, on the other hand the conspicuous absence of foreign buying despite the hype (no wall of money, in fact no new foreign money at all) at the same time it seems we have strong inflows..... if we have hit bottom in yields (I doubt it - but then I expect to see the stock market correct) that could be interesting in the bigger picture. We are seeing capitulation in Gold, more to follow. Paper gold looks more and more like, well, paper. All up a very confused picture. I'm waiting for confirmation that world economic growth has taken a turn for the worse. And we may, just, have seen the end of the USD rally. Still early days. Sit on hands. Wait. Watch.
HK [email protected] 16:21 GMT May 30, 2014
A great new money sinkhole for the US tax payers.
Reply
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev says Ukraine informed Moscow it had paid part of gas debt; indicates Gazprom had yet to receive the money - @Reuters
So this weekend probably no WWIII.
HK [email protected] 16:16 GMT May 30, 2014
Gold down due to El Nino
Definitely, the Banksters are out there to rob the poor Indian farmer's gold at low low prices:)
Banksters is their name... not for no reasons:)
GVI Forex Blog 16:01 GMT May 30, 2014
Reply
May 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, June 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: China PMI's, EZ, DE, FR, GB, CH. PMIs, US, CA. PMI's,
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 2, 2014
GVI Forex john 15:58 GMT May 30, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
May 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, June 2.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: China PMI's, EZ, DE, FR, GB, CH. PMIs, US, CA. PMI's,
- Far East: China PMI's,
- Europe: EZ, DE, FR, GB, CH. PMIs.
- North America: US, CA. PMI's, US- Construction Spending.
dc CB 15:44 GMT May 30, 2014
Gold down due to El Nino
Reply
FT:
Concerns about the effect of El Niño, which have hit commodities markets since the start of the year, is spreading to gold, as some analysts point to the weather phenomenon’s potential impact on India’s monsoon season.
The lack of physical buying by Indian consumers, normally active purchasers of the yellow metal, has been one of the bearish factors for the gold market this year. The precious metal was down 3 per cent on the week at $1,253.90 a troy ounce, and Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS in London, said India was likely to be on the radar in June as the monsoon season started.
A bad monsoon could hit crops and lead to higher food inflation, prompting higher income earners to buy gold.
However, a larger impact on the gold market is likely to come from poor crops and rising food costs forcing farmers to “sell part of their gold holdings as well as leaving less money for gold purchases”, UBS added.
GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT May 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
- Late in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets remain
broadly higher.
The market has the feel of a situation where large bonds were caught
out yesterday, We have heard no specifics yet.
Yields on the bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are
higher.
- Equities mostly fell in the
Far East earlier.
European bourses are closing the week mostly lower. U.S. equities
are modestly lower after
the S&P 500 made new record highs on Thursday's close.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.46%, +1bp.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
GVI Forex john 15:16 GMT May 30, 2014
Obama to Speak
Reply
Word he is to remove the head of the Veteran's Administration
Amman wfakhoury 14:29 GMT May 30, 2014
EURUSD 13628 confirmed
13628 reached
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT May 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mixed U.S. data today.
U.S. 10-yr 2.482%.
New York JKn 13:44 GMT May 30, 2014
April 2014 Canada: GDP
Buy USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Helped by fall in Canadian industrial products?
GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT May 30, 2014
April 2014 Canada: GDP
Canadian GDP disappoints. I have the 20-day moving average in USDCAD at 1.0880. Something to watch today.
Canadian May employment data are due a week from today. The April jobs data were weak.
GVI Forex john 11:26 GMT May 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply
S&P futures and USDJPY are trading closely together again today. At the moment It looks like S&P futures ar pulling the USDJPY higher. I don't see data due today as major market movers. I will be watching revisions to the University of Michigan data most closely.
GVI Forex john 11:22 GMT May 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
What a turn around in the 10-yr yield. It looked at one point that 2.40% was going to be breached less that 24 hours ago. It is currently at 2.473%. Yesterday smelled like a capitulation blow out of shorts in the 10-yr note. Maybe we have a bottom in for the 10-yr note yield?
bali sja 10:47 GMT May 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
buy euro, at least temporary bottom has been made IMHO, time to go up
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:01 GMT May 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Month end flows likely to dominate
EURUSD trades 1.36 again so clearly sets the tone. Only above the 200 day mva (1.3645) would neutralize the bear bias.
Otherwise, market likely to bide its time until next week's key events.
GVI Forex john 09:28 GMT May 30, 2014
April 2014 German Real Retail Sales
I'm scratching my head with the German Retail sales data M/M falls, but y/y somehow rises sharply. My focus is on the big m/m miss. More poor German data.
Amman wfakhoury 09:19 GMT May 30, 2014
EURUSD 13628 confirmed
Gold need to move big 20-30$..1253.60 wfakhoury directional level..the close of 1 hr bar above or below will determind the
direction. any rise above 1257.10 will return to it.
GVI Forex john 09:14 GMT May 30, 2014
April 2014 Japanese CPI
Japanese CPI. The impact of the Sales tax increase has been felt in these data. Its impact is estimated at 2.70%. So the BOJ sitll has work to do to hits its inflation target.
SaaR KaL 09:11 GMT May 30, 2014
Day's Trades
BTW
The day before
I Longed
Yhoo at maximum
technically
Long Term yhoo
Date Avg Max Min
May/29/14 41.11883 55.85827 30.26740
Apr/26/15 60.97261 82.90627 44.84971
Below 39.6699 this month is a no biggy
IMO this guy is a rally stock
SaaR KaL 09:07 GMT May 30, 2014
Day's Trades
Date Avg Max Min
May/30/14 170.41408 174.75825 166.05913
Jun/13/14 168.50126 172.81219 164.19452
will short above 171.1459
if seen the coming week
not here
GVI Forex john 08:57 GMT May 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
- Early in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are
now broadly higher. The market has the feel of a situation where a
major player(s) got caught out yesterday, We have heard no specifics
yet.
Yields on the bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are
higher.
- Equities mostly fell in the Far East earlier.
European bourses are trading mixed. U.S. equity futures are lower after
the S&P 500 made new record highs on the Thursday close.
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.48%, +3bp.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
Central Kwun 08:49 GMT May 30, 2014
EURUSD 13628 confirmed
Sell Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
wfakhoury, can you advice direction on gold?
Amman wfakhoury 08:12 GMT May 30, 2014
EURUSD 13628 confirmed
Amman wfakhoury 14:10 GMT 05/29/2014
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:54 GMT 05/29/2014
-_______________________________
13628 still cofirmed....but any decline below 13601 will return to it..we need 1 hr bar to close above 13604 and keep above it to reach 13628.
_________________________________
Still active and confirmed.
SaaR KaL 06:42 GMT May 30, 2014
Day's Trades
These I am Very Comfortable with at the moment
to accumulate
EURGBP
a Nice sell
Date Avg Max Min
May/30/14 0.80931 0.82128 0.79763
Jun/12/14 0.80189 0.81380 0.79027
Same with
EURUSD
Date Avg Max Min
May/30/14 1.35666 1.38333 1.33065
Jun/12/14 1.32908 1.35527 1.30355
EURJPY as well
Date Avg Max Min
May/30/14 137.96176 141.48999 134.46476
Jun/12/14 135.15016 138.61652 131.72473
USDCHF a Good Buy
Date Avg Max Min
May/30/14 0.90090 0.92257 0.87964
Jun/12/14 0.92108 0.94328 0.89932
GBPCHF a good buy with dips
Date Avg Max Min
May/30/14 1.51019 1.53854 1.48218
Jun/12/14 1.52785 1.55667 1.49950
SaaR KaL 06:31 GMT May 30, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
AUDUSD
Daily
a big time sell
Date Avg Max Min
May/30/14 0.86267 1.06439 0.69348
Apr/27/15 0.68665 0.84576 0.55230
Hourly
Date Avg Max Min
May/30/14 0.92561 0.95724 0.89520
Jun/12/14 0.91916 0.95055 0.88890
Could reach 0.9500 then drop
tokyo ginko 05:52 GMT May 30, 2014
AUD rate cut or hike?
aud stil range bound..0.9190/9390...don't be fool by the noise..
Hong Kong Ahe 05:35 GMT May 30, 2014
AUD rate cut or hike?
Reply
A news just pop up saying Goldman Sachs expect Australia to cut rate in September 2014 (revised from Jul 2014). Rate cut or hike? Is not the market expecting a rate hike that pushing the AUD up? Please correct me. TIA
HK [email protected] 03:59 GMT May 30, 2014
CONCLUSION: It is important who are those in the market holding the goods, and forget about fundamentals!!!
All is rigged as usual:)
Dillon AL 02:25 GMT May 30, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
I repeat my previously posted mention of the potential upside S&P tgt may possibly be 2135 before a move back to 1580 and - newly added - potentially 1250
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:19 GMT May 30, 2014
AceTrader May 30: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views on USD/JPY
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 May 2014 01:55GMT
USD/JPY - 101.62
Early release of Japan's economic data showed that Japan's inflation accelerated in April to a 23-year high while industrial output and household spending fell after a sales-tax increase. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 3.2% y/y in April after a 1.3% increase in March.
A piece of news worth mentioning, Board member Sayuri Shirai said on Thursday the BOJ's unprecedented easing could last beyond next year and downplayed the bank's optimism that inflation would reach its target in fiscal 2015.
The greenback fell to 101.43 on Thursday due to cross buying in Japanese yen, however, short-covering lifted price to 101.79 in Australian morning b4 easing. Some bids are located at 101.55-50 with stops building up below 101.40 n 101.35. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 101.75/80 n 101.95/00.
Japan's MOF's Furusawa says that there are indications Japan's economy is entering a virtuous cycle; is no longer in deflationary situation.
Japan EconMin Amari says that April CPI shows the sales tax hike is being passed on effectively.
HK [email protected] 02:02 GMT May 30, 2014
FWIW:Russians Invade Donetsk
Reply
Americans are dreaming:
(US Defense officials: Russia has pulled most of its forces from the Ukraine border - @AP)
Facts are:
DONETSK, Ukraine – It’s no longer about amateurs. There is a full-scale war going on, and it’s fought by professionals. The Russians are here – and they’re making a grab for power in eastern Ukraine.
If there was ever any doubt, it was quashed this week when separatist leaders and fighters here opened up to journalists about their Russian roots. In interviews with the Kyiv Post, Vice News, and the Financial Times, fighters in the so-called Vostok Battalion identified themselves as Russian citizens, with several saying they were from the Autonomous Republic of Chechnya.
Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, top Russian officials have repeatedly denied the presence of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. Most recently, Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic denied claims that he was responsible for sending Chechen mercenaries to fight alongside separatists in eastern Ukraine, saying that such accusations were wholly “untrue.”
Still, Kadyrov did not deny that Chechens are fighting in Ukraine, adding, “If somewhere in the conflict zone somebody saw a Chechen, that’s their personal business.”
It seems improbable, however, that Chechens are fighting in eastern Ukraine without Kadyrov’s consent or knowledge. The Financial Times reported that one Chechen fighter told them “our President [Kadyrov] gave the order. They called us and we came.”
Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russia security services and a New York University global-affairs professor, posited in a recent essay that the presence of the Vostok Battalion is “something that could not have happened without Russian acquiescence – and which probably was arranged by them.”
Mercenaries from the north Caucuses were only spotted this week, with reports that coincided with numerous illegal border crossings from the Russian side, according to Ukraine’s Border Guard Service.
The porous Russia-Ukraine border means that stopping the stream of Russian militants to Ukraine will be difficult. On May 27, the Ukrainian state border service clashed with Russian militants attempting to cross the border into Luhansk. It reported that both sides suffered casualties, and one Russia gunman was killed and another severely wounded. The service seized three vehicles and various armaments, including Kalashnikov rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers.
Despite the guards’ seizure, some vehicles were able to enter Ukrainian territory. The border guard service believes that they are part of a larger group of mercenaries sent to fight the Ukrainian army in Luhansk and Donetsk.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:15 GMT May 30, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!! Sell
KL let me know as per my email
KL KL 00:59 GMT May 30, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!! Sell
Reply
Dooommmmssshhh!!
Ninja arrives and Selling relentless AUDUSD .93167.....no mercy and no thinking.....LOL
DYOR...DFM...imvho and gl gt.... my way my crazy style......LOL......
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