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Forex Forum Archive for 06/03/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Blog 23:47 GMT June 3, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Euro off lows, but upside seen limited

* Further slowdown in euro zone inflation seals case for ECB action

* Aussie firmer vs USD ahead of GDP data due 0130 GMT

FOREX-Euro seen hamstrung ahead of ECB meeting, Aussie eyes GDP

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:24 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Question for the forum

Does EURUSD have to squeeze out the shorts before making a new low or can it do it without a squeeze.

Alternative is a squeeze higher that has some legs.

Pattern to watch: 1.36, which has traded 5 days in a row

Key levels: 1.3584 - 1.3650

Bias stays negative as long as below 1.3650

GVI Forex john 22:02 GMT June 3, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data



June 3, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for aWednesday, June 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP, US- ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision

  • Far East: AU- GDP.
  • Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP.
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Weekly Crude, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision.


GVI Forex john 21:21 GMT June 3, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

WEDNESDAY 4 June 2014
EZ, UK, CH- Service Final PMI Flash PMIs- rarely change much
EZ- GDP- Key data for ECB
United States
ADP Jobs- Volatile series but tends to influence outlook for NFP.
ISM Service PMI-Reliable source and closely followed.
Beige Book- Economic report used by Fed for policy discussions.
Canada
Bank of Canada Decision. No rate changes seen for now.

THURSDAY 5 June 2014.
United Kingdom
Bank of England Decision- No policy change expected.
Eurozone
European central Bank Decision- Policy easing priced in.
United States
Jobless Claims- Focus on the 300K level.

FRIDAY 6 June 2014.
United Kingdom
Trade- GBP Sensitive to this statistic
United States
Employment - Most important statistic of the month

dc CB 21:08 GMT June 3, 2014
STOX

oh nooooo a day without a New Record High....It's a CRASH

dc CB 21:06 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

if you were "brave enough" to short the top tick in Bond futures around noon on thurs. you have gained the equiv of 3 days of London House price rise.
ZBU4 138 10 down to 135 08

future in the 10 and the 30 just closed on the low

will a thurs - Dragggie and a Friday Fudgie Adjusted Employ # crush the shorts again? Auction Auction Auction

GVI Forex Blog 20:44 GMT June 3, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
US interest rates rose further, but the dollar and equities (S&P500 -0.1%) consolidated recent gains. US economic data was supportive, factory orders and small business sentiment beating expectations. Eurozone inflation undershot estimates but EUR rose, suggesting bets on ECB easing this week had already been placed.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 20:40 GMT June 3, 2014
Weekly US API Data
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -1.400 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +1.660 prev.
Gasoline: +0.800 vs. 0.000 exp vs. -1.800 prev.
Distillates: -0.300 vs. +1.000 exp vs. -0.195 prev.
Cap/Util: n/s vs. n/a exp vs. 89.90% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 19:47 GMT June 3, 2014
STOX

nh 17:43 maybe History started yesterday, but it is already attempted to be shaped again:

Merkel eyes IMF's Lagarde for EU Commission chief-sources - rtrs

apparently Lagarde is "as a steady-handed compromise builder"

GVI Forex john 19:37 GMT June 3, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:31 GMT June 3, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Heat MAP USD Moving Averages...




Mtl JP 18:47 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



10-yr on precipice

Mtl JP 18:43 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

except... when meddling human "policymakers" interfere

Mtl JP 18:40 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

red and in Nature , if you are a fan of biomimetics (the imitation of living things in nature) one or two bears take one or two days to chew up what many thousands of bees took whole spring and summer to build

london red 18:35 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

goldman released a note a couple of weeks back saying historically bursting bubbles take approx 2 months to do the majority of the whole move. if its the top then theres much more to come you feel, although how many times have we been here and get disappointed by fundamentals.

Mtl JP 18:34 GMT June 3, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Factory Orders

john 18:04 the one missing aspect of a dry post is sentiment about momentum, so I am not sure if you are excited or worried about the interest rate level. As momentum works on the downside as well - except a few times faster - things could happen very rapidly especially if nh's mopes "get it" and jump on it.

my JP 14:41 caveat notwithstanding

GVI Forex john 18:30 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

2.591%

dc CB 18:27 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

the 2:15 express leaving the station

dc CB 18:25 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

JP

the rest of Eng wasn't the point. in the USA, NY, SanFran, DC are going bonkers. the rest off the country, not so much.

588 pounds a Day...that's almost $1,000 a DAY....be happy with that day trading futures. But then houses are harder to unload when the market tanks.

Mtl JP 18:18 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

oh... just clicked the link... while values across England and Wales remain 5pc below 2007 peak

Mtl JP 18:15 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

CB 18:03 - what about house prices in the rest of UK ?

GVI Forex Blog 18:09 GMT June 3, 2014
Wednesday Spotlight on Final Service PMIs. EZ flash HICP Soft. HSBC Final PMI falls. ECB Thursday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP, US- ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision

Flash ECB May HICP fell by more than forecast. The data reinforce the case for ECB ease on Thursday. May y/y HICP increased by only 0.50% vs. +0.70% in April. The ECB is trying to combat deflationary pressures.

Wednesday Spotlight on Final Service PMIs. EZ flash HICP Soft. HSBC Final PMI falls. ECB Thurs and U.S. Jobs Fri

GVI Forex john 18:04 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr now 2.588%.

dc CB 18:03 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

London house prices in April rose at their fastest monthly rate since official records began in 1995, Land Registry data showed today.


London house prices rise at fastest rate on record adding £588 a day

london red 18:02 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

john, its done 4 figures which isnt a small move. we are used to a binary market, but not everything moves together. ecb has disappointed so many times, its difficult to short at the recent lows with their track record.
anyhow take a look at the monthly chart, the june candle is v young and suggests some upside unless its a breakout month. we need to trade 13250/133 to class as breakout, anything less risk a rebound from where ever the low is to 1.3670/137 as a minimum. this is purely technical, retracement theory, of course and takes no account of fundamentals or one off events.

london red 17:51 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

just touched support, will probably hold into tomorrow but may face london am selling if pattern repeats. if so high for yen in today.

Mtl JP 17:50 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



US Tr 10yr's price

dc CB 17:43 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



10-yr yields

It's called a V Recovery :)))

dc CB 17:40 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

"U.S. auto sales today were robust as well"

Average automotive loan term reaches record high of 66 months; loans with terms 73-84 months grew by 27.6 percent

Experian Automotive

GVI Forex john 17:40 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr yields continue to rise last 2.579%. Recall 10-yr tested 2.40% last Thursday. I don't understand how the EURUSD continues to hold here.

GVI Forex john 17:19 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

red- I agree with you view on the jobs numbers. Down the road, what matters is sustainability of the recovery.

Mtl JP 17:17 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

yesterday Hilsenrath had a piece from Taylor claiming rates need to go to 4% and that the FED is already late.

Today, in Fed Policy Rules: Made to Be Broken? Da Costa reports that "Federal Reserve critics gathered at the Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, California last week focused on the need for consistent policy rules that suggest U.S. interest rates have already been too low for too long and should be moving higher." and that "Top Fed officials counter they are following a Taylor rule Ė just not the original one published in 1993.

In 2012, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, then the central bankís vice chair, argued policy makers were using a modified version of the Taylor rule intended to give greater weight to employment, which fell sharply during the Great Recession"

GVI Forex john 17:17 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I'm not sure I understand the question. U.S. auto sales today were robust as well. If traders do not recognize the strength in the data, they will see it subsequently in stock, bond and forex prices. The fundamentals DO matter!

london red 17:15 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

actually the risk for me is a sub 200k number. data has been patchy as far as employment is concerned as to get 225+ you really need all employment related data to come strong. would not be surprised to see 160/170, which isnt bad but will be viewed as a miss, possibly a big disappointment if the 10 year goes another half point in the mean time. usdjpy [email protected] represents good risk reward if seen tomorrow.

Mtl JP 17:07 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

how, do you think, players would recognize a "strong economic rebound" ?

GVI Forex john 16:23 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

It might be that bond yields are reacting to the recent flow of positive U.S. data very recently. That could pit them at risk to a disappointment with twin jobs data due on Wednesday and Friday. If the markets start to tighten equities could fall.

Are we already looking past the ECB?

EURUSD could be vulnerable to a strong U.S. economic rebound.



FR 16:11 GMT June 3, 2014
Sell USD/JPY
Reply   
Sell USDJPY
Entry: 102.45-50 Target: open Stop: 102.70

Sell the pair right now or within 102.40-102.50.
and come into play to get the profit...
be calm down and get your profit...

dc CB 16:07 GMT June 3, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Factory Orders

Mtl JP 14:03 GMT
Lew is currently paying 2.5630% for borrowing $1000.00 for 10yrs (up 1.18% from open)


the 10Y Auction isn't until next tues the 11th...and a 30Y on the 12th. So Lew is not paying anything yet.

Do you think that yeilds could continue straight down after that Futures Roll/Short covering frenzy last week...do you think that a Treas auction would face and under 2.4% when issued market.

decks are bing cleared...profits booked for the next round.

GVI Forex john 16:01 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Strange heat map. When stocks fall bond yields usually fall as traders switch to bonds from stocks.

I also think its a little strange for bond yields to be rising ahead of an expected easing by the ECB on Thursday. CB ease should be equity positive.

So is it risk on or risk off today?

Mtl JP 15:53 GMT June 3, 2014
The Austrian volk demands to know the truth!!!

there is really only one possible problem for the bankers: loss of confidence. (it is highly unlikely, imo, that the big fish will ever hang, literally)

The Austria request, despite the use of the words "regular audits" is an expression of doubt. It would occur if confidence in central banks was 100% solid and 100% unshakable.

We are unlikely ever know and Christian Gutlederer's response does not inspire confidence and fuels speculation. When it comes to Gold: liars figure and their figures lie. It is an age-old attribute of Gold - coz, in the end, Gold always separates lies & liars from Truth

GVI Forex john 15:51 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • Yields in European prime fixed income markets are higher. Markets are on edge waiting for the ECB decision Thursday. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are now mixed to higher. U.S. Treasury yields are higher.
  • Equities were mixed in the Far East earlier.  European bourses are lower. U.S. equities are down
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.57%, +4bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex Blog 15:20 GMT June 3, 2014 Reply   
June 3, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for aWednesday, June 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP, US- ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision

GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 4, 2014

GVI Forex john 15:14 GMT June 3, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


June 3, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for aWednesday, June 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP, US- ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision

  • Far East: AU- GDP.
  • Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP.
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Weekly Crude, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:59 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Note the power of the 50 level (1.3650)

This one is important as below puts the risk on 1.35 and above on 1.38

Livingston nh 14:50 GMT June 3, 2014
EUR

RF - who wants to put on a EUR trade thru Thursday and Friday -- two unknowns w/ ECB 1. What measures, if any? 2. Consequences of action or inaction is the Gorilla Unknown -- negative interest rates is a total departure from policy // never been done = uncertainty

NFP -- is a really good number a bad thing for bonds after the shorts have been removed? STOX could get whipsawed
and EUR reaction to a yield spike could correct or exacerbate Thurs move

Volatility please !!

Mtl JP 14:41 GMT June 3, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Factory Orders

re 10-yr note yield:
one should exercise caution (which is different from respect) about getting too enthusiastic about Lew's paper going the way of DoDo bird and rates traversing the beginning of year 3% rate. someone keeps buying ... while Russia, China et al selling. Is it the Fed ? via proxies such as Belgium ? and really is it that simple?

It risks being very tuff to do trade against that - coz treasuries are in US$ and "they" can print as many US$ as needed to redeem them treasuries.

HK [email protected] 14:34 GMT June 3, 2014
EUR



By now Euro gave a mute reaction to data. Is that bad news for the USD or the market waits for more significant news to take a move?

Mtl JP 14:19 GMT June 3, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Factory Orders



threat or promise
your pick

SaaR KaL 14:11 GMT June 3, 2014
EUR

eurusd from here into 1.3586
is what i expect

Mtl JP 14:03 GMT June 3, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Factory Orders

Lew is currently paying 2.5630% for borrowing $1000.00 for 10yrs (up 1.18% from open)

GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT June 3, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Factory Orders

Additional improving U.S. data.

HK [email protected] 14:01 GMT June 3, 2014
The Austrian volk demands to know the truth!!!
Reply   

Or we shall give problems to the bankers!

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT June 3, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Factory Orders
Reply   



ALERT
+0.70% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.90% (r +1.50%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

HK [email protected] 13:58 GMT June 3, 2014
The Austrian volk want to know the truth!!!
Reply   


We do not intend to publish details of that audit. .../..

Why?

Mtl JP 13:37 GMT June 3, 2014
Security Fund

remember the Austrian doing an audit on its 150 tons of Gold still allegedly at the Bank of England ?

"...The Austrian Central Bank has conducted regular audits of its gold reserves in the past as well. Our latest audit is part of this routine. We do not intend to publish details of that audit. .../..

Kind regards.

Christian Gutlederer
Communications Division
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Vienna, Austria"

HK [email protected] 13:26 GMT June 3, 2014
Security Fund



US is always looking for money sinkholes to keep it's military industry ablaze. They have created one in Ukraine, but except getting the system on going, what is the profit in it?

About the German gold. I believe that it is all intact held in several locations in the US.
So why no show the German bankers the gold, and why give them newly molten bars?
Because if the German will see the gold, they will demand it right away, as there will be no reason for delays.

The US holds all the German gold intact for preparation of a possible breakout of an instant economic crisis. Simply like that!

And the German? They can wait for a dripping gold returning over the whole coming century!


Mtl JP 13:13 GMT June 3, 2014
Security Fund
Reply   
Obama Calls for $1 Billion Europe Security Fund - wsj
Fund Will Increase U.S. Military Presence in Eastern Europe
-
that German Gold... it ain't coming

GVI Forex john 13:03 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Equities are weaker across the board in Europe at this hour. U.S. 10-yr is up to 2.555%

SaaR KaL 12:56 GMT June 3, 2014
EUR

I shorted Just now

Mtl JP 12:52 GMT June 3, 2014
gv chartpoint

break UP should target 103
especially IF Mario disappoints

Mtl JP 12:50 GMT June 3, 2014
gv chartpoint
Reply   
this one is currently Resistance
102.32 - usdyen

HK [email protected] 12:48 GMT June 3, 2014
EUR
Reply   


1.3660, poses a serious Res. and probably many will try to short at this level, so possibly 1.3650 can make a top for tonight.

Mtl JP 12:39 GMT June 3, 2014
cable

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: current Target: 300 pips Stop: use 50ma +/- few pips

time to drop the 5-min chart targets and go for a little bigger fish

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:26 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

High so far 1.3647...

Invisible hand so far on both sides of the range

london red 12:21 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Nobody feeling pain yet, lets see thru 50 then sell 60/75. Eurgbp sell 55-67 if seen. Nobody will be taking big position beforemeet so important overhead res should hold

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:17 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Stops or offers at 1.3650? 200 day mva and Fri high

Sanibel Is Fl Sirignore 12:11 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

3626 short stopped at 3606.
sidelined.
watching for retrace..

these are snail's pips..but PIPS.

Mtl JP 12:08 GMT June 3, 2014
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Reply   
US money slump flashes warnings as economy contracts
The US seems caught in a Japan-style trap, endlessly masking the effect by stealing a little extra growth from the future with artificial stimulus - Telegraph
-
that "seems" word again...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:52 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1.3649 = 200 day mva

1.3690 = 20 day mva

London Misha 11:49 GMT June 3, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart!
USDJPY - 1st close (just!) over Medium MA since early April on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Long White Marubozo & Bullish Engulfing Pattern plus 1st close over Long MA on Daily Chart!
EURGBP - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Long Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Bullish Harami on Daily Chart. Today almost Bullish Engulfing Pattern!
USDZAR - 2nd White Soldier & 1st close over Medium MA on Daily Chart!
USDBRL - Open & Close Long White Marubozo & 2nd White Soldier on Daily Chart. Breaks up out of 2.1978-2.2641 band!



Mtl JP 11:44 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

john 11:14 - Draghi and Co are "government officials" ?

GVI Forex john 11:27 GMT June 3, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Daily USD based Pivot Points. Basis previous session ranges...





GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Keep in mind, between now and Thursday, we will get the ADP data. Estimates are for a reading of 215K. Thus the bias is for a weaker payroll number than in April, so the RISK is that the data over-perform.

GVI Forex john 11:14 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Honestly I don't know what to make of the EURUSD. EZ HICP data earlier today point to an easing of policy on Thursday. There is not much doubt that rates will be cut. The issue is whether the ECB will be more aggressive and take strong unconventional measures to combat deflation. We doubt it.

The problem with the bear case for the EURUSD is that all of this is known. Markets don't react to what they already know.

One other thing, over years the markets almost always have reacted negatively to plans of this type because traders are a cynical bunch and they never believe what comes from government officials.

NY JM 10:57 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Is EURUSD appearing bid in an offered market or has the invisible hand reappeared? Only above the 200 day mva and 1.3650 negates the former view.

GVI Forex john 10:42 GMT June 3, 2014
Reserve Bank of Australia
Reply   
Policy kept steady earlier, as widely expected.

On forex they said:
"The earlier decline in the exchange rate is assisting in achieving balanced growth in the economy, but less so than previously as a result of the higher levels over the past few months. The exchange rate remains high by historical standards, particularly given the further decline in commodity prices..."

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

GVI Forex Blog 09:58 GMT June 3, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The EUR/USD could not hit fresh 3-year lows as May CPI flash estimate was not a bad as feared. The pair regained a foothold above the 1.36 level despite the headline CPI reading matching a 4-year low at 0.5%. Dealers had fear that inflation might decelerate even faster

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone flash CPI matches a 4-year low bit not as bad as feared; EMU unemployment continues its improving trend

GVI Forex Blog 09:33 GMT June 3, 2014
EZ flash HICP Soft. RBA Unch. HSBC Final PMI fall. ECB Thurs and U.S. Jobs Fri
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Factory Orders

Flash ECB May HICP fell by more than foretasted. The data reinforce the case for ECB ease on Thursday. May y/y HICP increased by 0.50% vs. +0.70% in April.

EZ flash HICP Soft. RBA Unch. HSBC Final PMI fall. ECB Thurs and U.S. Jobs Fri

GVI Forex john 09:15 GMT June 3, 2014
MAY 2014 China final HSBC PMI
Reply   


Earlier: HSBC final PMI falls from flash estimate...

Mtl JP 09:13 GMT June 3, 2014
May 2014 flash HICP (CPI)

allegedly "the European Central Bank president needs to stave off the risks of stagnation and deflation." - claims a piece on bbrg
--
in light of player hightened anticipated expectations that Draghi will finally deliver a decent setup for dis-appointment is building

In the meantime the anticipation is giving support to the USD vs yen and Lew's paper continues to dive.

GVI Forex john 09:10 GMT June 3, 2014
May 2014 flash HICP (CPI)

EZ headline flash HICP (CPI) falls. It remains well below ECB target of "just below 2.0%". ECB policyease probable Thursday


london red 09:05 GMT June 3, 2014
May 2014 flash HICP (CPI)

hicp softer than expected, jobs a plus. eurgbp if thru 10 day ma, get short squeeze. will drag euro higher.

GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT June 3, 2014
May 2014 flash HICP (CPI)

Nothing in the data to prevent an ECB easing.

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT June 3, 2014
May 2014 flash HICP (CPI)
Reply   




ALERT
Headline
yy: +0.50% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.
CORE
yy:+0.70% vs. vs. +0.90% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.

EZ Unemployment
11.70% vs. 11.80% exp. vs. +11.80% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:57 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map





  • Yields in European prime fixed income
    markets are mixed. Markets are on hold most of the week waiting
    for the
    ECB decision Thursday.
    Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are lower. U.S.
    Treasury yields are mixed.


  • Equities were mixed in the
    Far East earlier. 
    European bourses are mostly lower. U.S. equitiy futures are down


  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.54%, +1bp.


Mtl JP 08:50 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Livingston nh 18:32 re the mopes finally figured it out

Unstoppable $100 Trillion Bond Market Renders Models Useless - BBRG

..."The seemingly unstoppable rally has caused bond-market professionals to reassess whether theyíre using the right tools."...


seemingly is the operative theme. and not just in the world of "bond-market models".

london red 08:34 GMT June 3, 2014
cable
Reply   
*unlikely to break 80/90 today

london red 08:33 GMT June 3, 2014
cable
Reply   
construction pmi 60, v high but bar set even higher, so a miss. cable risks 20/30 now unlikely to test 80/90 again today. so eurgbp should get a lift also

SaaR KaL 07:44 GMT June 3, 2014
ECB

i see what you are saying Shawn
Just that i do not see it above 1.3636 as well

kl shawn 05:41 GMT June 3, 2014
Expats beware: Dubaiís housing bubble is the biggest of all

Haifa ac, LMAO that is a good one!

Haifa ac 05:32 GMT June 3, 2014
Expats beware: Dubaiís housing bubble is the biggest of all

It is because people don't know grammer.
They hear DUBAI and think DO- BUY!

Syd 05:14 GMT June 3, 2014
Expats beware: Dubaiís housing bubble is the biggest of all
Reply   


Households who worry that Britain is trapped in a housing bubble should spare a thought for prospective buyers in the Middle East.

House prices in Dubai are rising at an annual rate of 27.7 per cent ó a level that makes even Londonís 17 per cent rate of inflation look sedate.

link

GVI Forex Blog 04:51 GMT June 3, 2014 Reply   
**Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA MAY FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.4 V 49.7E (5th month of contraction) >- (CN) CHINA MAY NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.5 V 54.8 PRIOR (6-month high) - (AU) AUSTRALIA APR

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China PMIs remain mixed; Australia retail sales miss estimates as traders await RBA decision - Source TradeTheNews.com

kl shawn 04:26 GMT June 3, 2014
ECB

euro has bottomed IMHO, anything below 1.36 is a bonus, daily will start turning north soon

prague viktor 04:14 GMT June 3, 2014
ECB
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

and if the ECB just wait till the 3Q whats will be happen to the EURO

kl shawn 03:15 GMT June 3, 2014
buy audusd
Reply   
scalp long 0.9245, stop under 0.9220, target 0.9270-80

GVI Forex 01:53 GMT June 3, 2014
China

NEWS: CHINA HSBC MAY FINAL PMI 49.4 VS FLASH 49.7; APRIL 48.1

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:46 GMT June 3, 2014
AceTrader Jun 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Jun 2014 01:13GMT

USD/JPY - 102.39

BOJ governor Kuroda says various means are available if BOJ were to exit QQE; how to exit QQE, including what to do with BOJ's JGB buying, will depend on price, market developments at the time; don't see limits to options available to BOJ if it were to ease again to ensure achievement of 2% inflation target.

BOJ says key monetary official Amamiya to be reappointed as executive overseeing monetary policy department.

BOJ governor Kuroda says too early to debate specific plans on exiting BOJ's QQE policy; taking about specific exit strategy at too early a stage could create confusion in markets, as seen in overseas examples; it's true we will need to debate exit strategy when 2% inflation is achieved in stable manner, but too early to do so now.

BOJ's Kuroda says BOJ won't rule out adjusting policy if achievement of price target becomes difficult, but as of now Japan moving steadily toward meeting the target.

He then says "private consumption likely to remain firm as a trend despite impact of sales tax hike".

BOJ's Kuroda says Japan's output gap has narrowed to near zero but how demand performs remain important.

Earlier, Reuters news quoting source fm the Nikkei, Japan GPIF's asset allocation committee head says raising Japan stock weighting to 20% wouldn't be too high.

BoJ Governor Kuroda says "expect Japan consumer inflation to reach 2% around fiscal 2015"; "won't hesitate to adjuest policy if risks threaten achievement of 2% inflation target"; "hope Japan govt steadily proceeds with steps to boost Japan's growth potential".

GVI Forex 01:10 GMT June 3, 2014
China
Reply   
CHINA DATA: May CFLP non-manufacturing PMI 55.5 vs 54.8 in April. Highest since November

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:36 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1.3600 trades for 5th day in a row....

GVI Forex Blog 00:04 GMT June 3, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index rises to highs last seen in mid-February

* Upbeat ISM helps lift sentiment after some confusion over correction

* Soft German inflation cements expectations of ECB action this week

FOREX-Dollar perkier as data boosts sentiment, euro wary of ECB

 




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