GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:24 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Question for the forum
Does EURUSD have to squeeze out the shorts before making a new low or can it do it without a squeeze.
Alternative is a squeeze higher that has some legs.
Pattern to watch: 1.36, which has traded 5 days in a row
Key levels: 1.3584 - 1.3650
Bias stays negative as long as below 1.3650
GVI Forex john 22:02 GMT June 3, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
June 3, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for aWednesday, June 4.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP, US- ADP Jobs, Trade,
Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision
- Far East: AU- GDP.
- Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Weekly Crude, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC
Decision.
GVI Forex john 21:21 GMT June 3, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply
WEDNESDAY 4 June 2014
EZ, UK, CH- Service Final PMI Flash PMIs- rarely change much
EZ- GDP- Key data for ECB
United States
ADP Jobs- Volatile series but tends to influence outlook for
NFP.
ISM Service PMI-Reliable source and closely followed.
Beige Book- Economic report used by Fed for policy discussions.
Canada
Bank of Canada Decision. No rate changes seen for now.
THURSDAY 5 June 2014.
United Kingdom
Bank of England Decision- No policy change expected.
Eurozone
European central Bank Decision- Policy easing priced in.
United States
Jobless Claims- Focus on the 300K level.
FRIDAY 6 June 2014.
United Kingdom
Trade- GBP Sensitive to this statistic
United States
Employment - Most important statistic of the month
dc CB 21:08 GMT June 3, 2014
STOX
oh nooooo a day without a New Record High....It's a CRASH
dc CB 21:06 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
if you were "brave enough" to short the top tick in Bond futures around noon on thurs. you have gained the equiv of 3 days of London House price rise.
ZBU4 138 10 down to 135 08
future in the 10 and the 30 just closed on the low
will a thurs - Dragggie and a Friday Fudgie Adjusted Employ # crush the shorts again? Auction Auction Auction
GVI Forex Blog 20:44 GMT June 3, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply
US interest rates rose further, but the dollar and equities (S&P500 -0.1%) consolidated recent gains. US economic data was supportive, factory orders and small business sentiment beating expectations. Eurozone inflation undershot estimates but EUR rose, suggesting bets on ECB easing this week had already been placed.
Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts
GVI Forex john 20:40 GMT June 3, 2014
Weekly US API Data
Reply
NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -1.400 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +1.660 prev.
Gasoline: +0.800 vs. 0.000 exp vs. -1.800 prev.
Distillates: -0.300 vs. +1.000 exp vs. -0.195 prev.
Cap/Util: n/s vs. n/a exp vs. 89.90% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Mtl JP 18:43 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
except... when meddling human "policymakers" interfere
Mtl JP 18:40 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
red and in Nature , if you are a fan of biomimetics (the imitation of living things in nature) one or two bears take one or two days to chew up what many thousands of bees took whole spring and summer to build
london red 18:35 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
goldman released a note a couple of weeks back saying historically bursting bubbles take approx 2 months to do the majority of the whole move. if its the top then theres much more to come you feel, although how many times have we been here and get disappointed by fundamentals.
Mtl JP 18:34 GMT June 3, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Factory Orders
john 18:04 the one missing aspect of a dry post is sentiment about momentum, so I am not sure if you are excited or worried about the interest rate level. As momentum works on the downside as well - except a few times faster - things could happen very rapidly especially if nh's mopes "get it" and jump on it.
my JP 14:41 caveat notwithstanding
dc CB 18:25 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
JP
the rest of Eng wasn't the point. in the USA, NY, SanFran, DC are going bonkers. the rest off the country, not so much.
588 pounds a Day...that's almost $1,000 a DAY....be happy with that day trading futures. But then houses are harder to unload when the market tanks.
Mtl JP 18:18 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
oh... just clicked the link... while values across England and Wales remain 5pc below 2007 peak
Mtl JP 18:15 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
CB 18:03 - what about house prices in the rest of UK ?
GVI Forex Blog 18:09 GMT June 3, 2014
Wednesday Spotlight on Final Service PMIs. EZ flash HICP Soft. HSBC Final PMI falls. ECB Thursday
Reply
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP, US- ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision
Flash ECB May HICP fell by more than forecast. The data reinforce the case for ECB ease on Thursday. May y/y HICP increased by only 0.50% vs. +0.70% in April. The ECB is trying to combat deflationary pressures.
Wednesday Spotlight on Final Service PMIs. EZ flash HICP Soft. HSBC Final PMI falls. ECB Thurs and U.S. Jobs Fri
london red 18:02 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
john, its done 4 figures which isnt a small move. we are used to a binary market, but not everything moves together. ecb has disappointed so many times, its difficult to short at the recent lows with their track record.
anyhow take a look at the monthly chart, the june candle is v young and suggests some upside unless its a breakout month. we need to trade 13250/133 to class as breakout, anything less risk a rebound from where ever the low is to 1.3670/137 as a minimum. this is purely technical, retracement theory, of course and takes no account of fundamentals or one off events.
london red 17:51 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
just touched support, will probably hold into tomorrow but may face london am selling if pattern repeats. if so high for yen in today.
dc CB 17:40 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
"U.S. auto sales today were robust as well"
Average automotive loan term reaches record high of 66 months; loans with terms 73-84 months grew by 27.6 percent
Experian Automotive
GVI Forex john 17:40 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
10-yr yields continue to rise last 2.579%. Recall 10-yr tested 2.40% last Thursday. I don't understand how the EURUSD continues to hold here.
GVI Forex john 17:19 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
red- I agree with you view on the jobs numbers. Down the road, what matters is sustainability of the recovery.
Mtl JP 17:17 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
yesterday Hilsenrath had a piece from Taylor claiming rates need to go to 4% and that the FED is already late.
Today, in Fed Policy Rules: Made to Be Broken? Da Costa reports that "Federal Reserve critics gathered at the Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, California last week focused on the need for consistent policy rules that suggest U.S. interest rates have already been too low for too long and should be moving higher." and that "Top Fed officials counter they are following a Taylor rule – just not the original one published in 1993.
In 2012, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, then the central bank’s vice chair, argued policy makers were using a modified version of the Taylor rule intended to give greater weight to employment, which fell sharply during the Great Recession"
GVI Forex john 17:17 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
I'm not sure I understand the question. U.S. auto sales today were robust as well. If traders do not recognize the strength in the data, they will see it subsequently in stock, bond and forex prices. The fundamentals DO matter!
london red 17:15 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
actually the risk for me is a sub 200k number. data has been patchy as far as employment is concerned as to get 225+ you really need all employment related data to come strong. would not be surprised to see 160/170, which isnt bad but will be viewed as a miss, possibly a big disappointment if the 10 year goes another half point in the mean time. usdjpy [email protected] represents good risk reward if seen tomorrow.
Mtl JP 17:07 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
how, do you think, players would recognize a "strong economic rebound" ?
GVI Forex john 16:23 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
It might be that bond yields are reacting to the recent flow of positive U.S. data very recently. That could pit them at risk to a disappointment with twin jobs data due on Wednesday and Friday. If the markets start to tighten equities could fall.
Are we already looking past the ECB?
EURUSD could be vulnerable to a strong U.S. economic rebound.
FR 16:11 GMT June 3, 2014
Sell USD/JPY
Reply
Sell USDJPY
Entry: 102.45-50 Target: open Stop: 102.70
Sell the pair right now or within 102.40-102.50.
and come into play to get the profit...
be calm down and get your profit...
dc CB 16:07 GMT June 3, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Factory Orders
Mtl JP 14:03 GMT
Lew is currently paying 2.5630% for borrowing $1000.00 for 10yrs (up 1.18% from open)
the 10Y Auction isn't until next tues the 11th...and a 30Y on the 12th. So Lew is not paying anything yet.
Do you think that yeilds could continue straight down after that Futures Roll/Short covering frenzy last week...do you think that a Treas auction would face and under 2.4% when issued market.
decks are bing cleared...profits booked for the next round.
GVI Forex john 16:01 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Strange heat map. When stocks fall bond yields usually fall as traders switch to bonds from stocks.
I also think its a little strange for bond yields to be rising ahead of an expected easing by the ECB on Thursday. CB ease should be equity positive.
So is it risk on or risk off today?
Mtl JP 15:53 GMT June 3, 2014
The Austrian volk demands to know the truth!!!
there is really only one possible problem for the bankers: loss of confidence. (it is highly unlikely, imo, that the big fish will ever hang, literally)
The Austria request, despite the use of the words "regular audits" is an expression of doubt. It would occur if confidence in central banks was 100% solid and 100% unshakable.
We are unlikely ever know and Christian Gutlederer's response does not inspire confidence and fuels speculation. When it comes to Gold: liars figure and their figures lie. It is an age-old attribute of Gold - coz, in the end, Gold always separates lies & liars from Truth
GVI Forex john 15:51 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
- Yields in European prime fixed income
markets are higher. Markets are on edge waiting
for the
ECB decision Thursday.
Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are now mixed to
higher. U.S.
Treasury yields are higher.
- Equities were mixed in the
Far East earlier.
European bourses are lower. U.S. equities are down
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.57%, +4bp.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
GVI Forex Blog 15:20 GMT June 3, 2014
Reply
June 3, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for aWednesday, June 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP, US- ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision
GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 4, 2014
GVI Forex john 15:14 GMT June 3, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
June 3, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for aWednesday, June 4.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- GDP, EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP, US- ADP Jobs, Trade,
Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision
- Far East: AU- GDP.
- Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMI, EZ- GDP.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Weekly Crude, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC
Decision.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:59 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Note the power of the 50 level (1.3650)
This one is important as below puts the risk on 1.35 and above on 1.38
Livingston nh 14:50 GMT June 3, 2014
EUR
RF - who wants to put on a EUR trade thru Thursday and Friday -- two unknowns w/ ECB 1. What measures, if any? 2. Consequences of action or inaction is the Gorilla Unknown -- negative interest rates is a total departure from policy // never been done = uncertainty
NFP -- is a really good number a bad thing for bonds after the shorts have been removed? STOX could get whipsawed
and EUR reaction to a yield spike could correct or exacerbate Thurs move
Volatility please !!
Mtl JP 14:41 GMT June 3, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Factory Orders
re 10-yr note yield:
one should exercise caution (which is different from respect) about getting too enthusiastic about Lew's paper going the way of DoDo bird and rates traversing the beginning of year 3% rate. someone keeps buying ... while Russia, China et al selling. Is it the Fed ? via proxies such as Belgium ? and really is it that simple?
It risks being very tuff to do trade against that - coz treasuries are in US$ and "they" can print as many US$ as needed to redeem them treasuries.
HK [email protected] 14:34 GMT June 3, 2014
EUR
By now Euro gave a mute reaction to data. Is that bad news for the USD or the market waits for more significant news to take a move?
SaaR KaL 14:11 GMT June 3, 2014
EUR
eurusd from here into 1.3586
is what i expect
Mtl JP 13:37 GMT June 3, 2014
Security Fund
remember the Austrian doing an audit on its 150 tons of Gold still allegedly at the Bank of England ?
"...The Austrian Central Bank has conducted regular audits of its gold reserves in the past as well. Our latest audit is part of this routine. We do not intend to publish details of that audit. .../..
Kind regards.
Christian Gutlederer
Communications Division
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Vienna, Austria"
HK [email protected] 13:26 GMT June 3, 2014
Security Fund
US is always looking for money sinkholes to keep it's military industry ablaze. They have created one in Ukraine, but except getting the system on going, what is the profit in it?
About the German gold. I believe that it is all intact held in several locations in the US.
So why no show the German bankers the gold, and why give them newly molten bars?
Because if the German will see the gold, they will demand it right away, as there will be no reason for delays.
The US holds all the German gold intact for preparation of a possible breakout of an instant economic crisis. Simply like that!
And the German? They can wait for a dripping gold returning over the whole coming century!
GVI Forex john 13:03 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Equities are weaker across the board in Europe at this hour. U.S. 10-yr is up to 2.555%
SaaR KaL 12:56 GMT June 3, 2014
EUR
I shorted Just now
Mtl JP 12:52 GMT June 3, 2014
gv chartpoint
break UP should target 103
especially IF Mario disappoints
Mtl JP 12:50 GMT June 3, 2014
gv chartpoint
Reply
this one is currently Resistance
102.32 - usdyen
HK [email protected] 12:48 GMT June 3, 2014
EUR
Reply
1.3660, poses a serious Res. and probably many will try to short at this level, so possibly 1.3650 can make a top for tonight.
Mtl JP 12:39 GMT June 3, 2014
cable
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: current Target: 300 pips Stop: use 50ma +/- few pips
time to drop the 5-min chart targets and go for a little bigger fish
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:26 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
High so far 1.3647...
Invisible hand so far on both sides of the range
london red 12:21 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Nobody feeling pain yet, lets see thru 50 then sell 60/75. Eurgbp sell 55-67 if seen. Nobody will be taking big position beforemeet so important overhead res should hold
Sanibel Is Fl Sirignore 12:11 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
3626 short stopped at 3606.
sidelined.
watching for retrace..
these are snail's pips..but PIPS.
London Misha 11:49 GMT June 3, 2014
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart!
USDJPY - 1st close (just!) over Medium MA since early April on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Long White Marubozo & Bullish Engulfing Pattern plus 1st close over Long MA on Daily Chart!
EURGBP - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Long Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Bullish Harami on Daily Chart. Today almost Bullish Engulfing Pattern!
USDZAR - 2nd White Soldier & 1st close over Medium MA on Daily Chart!
USDBRL - Open & Close Long White Marubozo & 2nd White Soldier on Daily Chart. Breaks up out of 2.1978-2.2641 band!
GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Keep in mind, between now and Thursday, we will get the ADP data. Estimates are for a reading of 215K. Thus the bias is for a weaker payroll number than in April, so the RISK is that the data over-perform.
GVI Forex john 11:14 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Honestly I don't know what to make of the EURUSD. EZ HICP data earlier today point to an easing of policy on Thursday. There is not much doubt that rates will be cut. The issue is whether the ECB will be more aggressive and take strong unconventional measures to combat deflation. We doubt it.
The problem with the bear case for the EURUSD is that all of this is known. Markets don't react to what they already know.
One other thing, over years the markets almost always have reacted negatively to plans of this type because traders are a cynical bunch and they never believe what comes from government officials.
NY JM 10:57 GMT June 3, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Is EURUSD appearing bid in an offered market or has the invisible hand reappeared? Only above the 200 day mva and 1.3650 negates the former view.
GVI Forex john 10:42 GMT June 3, 2014
Reserve Bank of Australia
Reply
Policy kept steady earlier, as widely expected.
On forex they said:
"The earlier decline in the exchange rate is assisting in achieving balanced growth in the economy, but less so than previously as a result of the higher levels over the past few months. The exchange rate remains high by historical standards, particularly given the further decline in commodity prices..."
Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
GVI Forex john 09:10 GMT June 3, 2014
May 2014 flash HICP (CPI)
EZ headline flash HICP (CPI) falls. It remains well below ECB target of "just below 2.0%". ECB policyease probable Thursday
london red 09:05 GMT June 3, 2014
May 2014 flash HICP (CPI)
hicp softer than expected, jobs a plus. eurgbp if thru 10 day ma, get short squeeze. will drag euro higher.
GVI Forex john 08:57 GMT June 3, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
- Yields in European prime fixed income
markets are mixed. Markets are on hold most of the week waiting
for the
ECB decision Thursday.
Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are lower. U.S.
Treasury yields are mixed.
- Equities were mixed in the
Far East earlier.
European bourses are mostly lower. U.S. equitiy futures are down
- The U.S. 10-yr is 2.54%, +1bp.
london red 08:34 GMT June 3, 2014
cable
Reply
*unlikely to break 80/90 today
london red 08:33 GMT June 3, 2014
cable
Reply
construction pmi 60, v high but bar set even higher, so a miss. cable risks 20/30 now unlikely to test 80/90 again today. so eurgbp should get a lift also
SaaR KaL 07:44 GMT June 3, 2014
ECB
i see what you are saying Shawn
Just that i do not see it above 1.3636 as well
Syd 05:14 GMT June 3, 2014
Expats beware: Dubai’s housing bubble is the biggest of all
Reply
Households who worry that Britain is trapped in a housing bubble should spare a thought for prospective buyers in the Middle East.
House prices in Dubai are rising at an annual rate of 27.7 per cent — a level that makes even London’s 17 per cent rate of inflation look sedate.
link
kl shawn 04:26 GMT June 3, 2014
ECB
euro has bottomed IMHO, anything below 1.36 is a bonus, daily will start turning north soon
prague viktor 04:14 GMT June 3, 2014
ECB
Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
and if the ECB just wait till the 3Q whats will be happen to the EURO
kl shawn 03:15 GMT June 3, 2014
buy audusd
Reply
scalp long 0.9245, stop under 0.9220, target 0.9270-80
GVI Forex 01:53 GMT June 3, 2014
China
NEWS: CHINA HSBC MAY FINAL PMI 49.4 VS FLASH 49.7; APRIL 48.1
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:46 GMT June 3, 2014
AceTrader Jun 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jun 2014 01:13GMT
USD/JPY - 102.39
BOJ governor Kuroda says various means are available if BOJ were to exit QQE; how to exit QQE, including what to do with BOJ's JGB buying, will depend on price, market developments at the time; don't see limits to options available to BOJ if it were to ease again to ensure achievement of 2% inflation target.
BOJ says key monetary official Amamiya to be reappointed as executive overseeing monetary policy department.
BOJ governor Kuroda says too early to debate specific plans on exiting BOJ's QQE policy; taking about specific exit strategy at too early a stage could create confusion in markets, as seen in overseas examples; it's true we will need to debate exit strategy when 2% inflation is achieved in stable manner, but too early to do so now.
BOJ's Kuroda says BOJ won't rule out adjusting policy if achievement of price target becomes difficult, but as of now Japan moving steadily toward meeting the target.
He then says "private consumption likely to remain firm as a trend despite impact of sales tax hike".
BOJ's Kuroda says Japan's output gap has narrowed to near zero but how demand performs remain important.
Earlier, Reuters news quoting source fm the Nikkei, Japan GPIF's asset allocation committee head says raising Japan stock weighting to 20% wouldn't be too high.
BoJ Governor Kuroda says "expect Japan consumer inflation to reach 2% around fiscal 2015"; "won't hesitate to adjuest policy if risks threaten achievement of 2% inflation target"; "hope Japan govt steadily proceeds with steps to boost Japan's growth potential".
GVI Forex 01:10 GMT June 3, 2014
China
Reply
CHINA DATA: May CFLP non-manufacturing PMI 55.5 vs 54.8 in April. Highest since November
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