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Forex Forum Archive for 06/04/2014

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GVI Forex Blog 23:49 GMT June 4, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Euro drifting around $1.3600, near four-month trough

* ECB expected to ease policy at its June 5 meeting

* Rate decision due 1145 GMT, news conference at 1230 GMT

FOREX- Euro pinned near four-month lows as ECB looms

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:55 GMT June 4, 2014
Two Great Articles

Odds of an ECB Surprise?

Eurozone Headed for Japan-Like Deflation?


Click to read these articles

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:48 GMT June 4, 2014
Free GTA Member Benefits
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GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:49 GMT June 4, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Anyone care to pose a scenario for the ECB meeting?

1.36 just traded for the 8th day in a row so that will be a level that sets the bias going forwards. I have a theory on why these big figures keep attracting/consolidating. Contact me if you want my view on it.

london red 21:22 GMT June 4, 2014
Cable

nh, key difference between uk and eu is: home ownership is the majority in uk while in europe its a rental mentality, so they do not benefit from property price increases (and that that entails) and you need to be aware that property demand in the uk is always different to elsewhere since space is at a premium and the island is overpopulated leading to a natural never ending increase in property prices over the long term. you have your crashes/bubbles as anywhere, but think of it a bit like the US and the interest and participation of ordinary Joe in the stockmarket. In the eu and uk the bond yield or stock market does have as much of an effect as it does in the US, hence why the eu is unlikely to ever buy bonds given it wont actually help anyone that needs helping.

GVI Forex john 20:56 GMT June 4, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

THURSDAY 5 June 2014.
United Kingdom
Bank of England Decision- No policy change expected.
Eurozone
European central Bank Decision- Policy easing priced in.
United States
Jobless Claims- Focus on the 300K level.

FRIDAY 6 June 2014.
United Kingdom
Trade- GBP Sensitive to this statistic
United States
Employment - Most important statistic of the month
       
MONDAY 9 June 2014
No Major Data
 
TUESDAY 10 June 2014

Paris ib 19:45 GMT June 4, 2014
Record

New record close on the S and P.

GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT June 4, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT June 4, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...





Paris ib 19:27 GMT June 4, 2014
Geopolitics?

Actually I shouldn't laugh. Somewhere a bunch of chinless deviants are quietly mocking us.

Paris ib 19:25 GMT June 4, 2014
Geopolitics?

Plus he got the 'audacity of hope' Nobel Peace Prize. lol

Paris ib 19:24 GMT June 4, 2014
Geopolitics?

CB - indeed. Obama was Bush to the power of ten but no-one said anything because he was 'change' and black and therefore supposedly modern. So Hillary will be the same as Obama only obviously going down the same road.... nice one.

Australia did that. They got this absolutely shocking woman but no-one was allowed to say anything because then they were misogynist. The thought police have taken over.

dc CB 19:05 GMT June 4, 2014
Geopolitics?

it's not specifically Her. But if elected it will just be a hand off between "front man/woman" dynasties. Nothing will change...she will keep all the Executive powers that have been accumulated since the 1990's, and add to them. But as the First Woman President, she will - do not wrong - for the first term. Just like the O - the First Black President - who basically was Bush continued... but nobody dared call him on it.

Paris ib 18:45 GMT June 4, 2014
Risk on (green) Risk off (red) Table

Ever since we got that mini rally in bonds and people started talking about how bonds had rallied (when the 10 year hit 2.4%) since the start of the year and it was a surprise but it was likely to continue and so on and so forth - ever since bond yields have gone only up !!

GVI Forex john 18:42 GMT June 4, 2014
Risk on (green) Risk off (red) Table

10-yr 2.611% steady this afternoon after an early rise in yields. U.S. equities have been holding modestly higher.

Paris ib 18:41 GMT June 4, 2014
Geopolitics?

CB - you know EVERYONE says that !! Should we be worried about this next Clinton President? Are you guys all scared of her? I'm no fan, but then these politicians aren't exactly the kind of people I look up to. :-)

dc CB 18:38 GMT June 4, 2014
Geopolitics?



The Treasury “has opened up a new battlefield for the United States,” Mr. Lew said.

Aiming Financial Weapons From Treasury War Room

GVI Forex 18:37 GMT June 4, 2014
U.S. Fed Beige Book

Released. text

Beige Book

dc CB 18:33 GMT June 4, 2014
Geopolitics?

ib

Paul Craig Roberts suggests the U.S. is gearing up for a hot war.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

just wait, til Hillary Clinton becomes el Presidente

GVI Forex Blog 18:22 GMT June 4, 2014
Mixed Service PMI Reports. ADP Miss. ECB Policy Easing Due
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: DE- Factory Orders, BOE Decision, EZ- Retail Sales, ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, CA- Ivey PMI

U.S. ADP data were weaker than forecast. The problem is the ADP report is not a reliable predictor of NFP. On the other hand, the Markit and ISM Service PMIs are pointing in the direction of economic growth. U.K. Services PMI data were stronger than forecast but nevertheless still fell in the month.

Mixed Service PMI Reports. ADP Miss. ECB Policy Easing Due

Paris ib 18:03 GMT June 4, 2014
Geopolitics?
Reply   
Is that coming back again? The U.S. encircling Russia... yada yada yada.

and the U.S. against China:

The deputy chief of staff of the Chinese Army, Lieutenant-General Wang Guanzhong said "I felt that Secretary Hagel's speech is full of hegemonism, threat and intimidation," he told reporters just after the speech.... a few days ago.

Paul Craig Roberts suggests the U.S. is gearing up for a hot war. I know nothing about that.

Obama in Poland

GVI Forex john 18:03 GMT June 4, 2014
U.S. Fed Beige Book

Nothing in the headlines suggest Fed tightening pressures mounting.

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:01 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

see you guys later too. i need to go.!

GVI Forex john 18:01 GMT June 4, 2014
U.S. Fed Beige Book
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Economic activity up in all regions, but modest growth.
Price and wage pressures are contained.
Real Estate mixed



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:59 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

i just love the American style of doing business, they take loans and give their products away for free, the buy 1 get 1 free, or call now in 60 minutes and the whole damn counter top of tools is free =).

but seriously speaking american's are good in their trade.

censored a transformer down the road just blew!

Livingston nh 17:55 GMT June 4, 2014
2 things
Reply   
I'll see you folks later - BUT US FI markets are active in areas I have no understanding (swaps, spreads, yadayada)
and STOX may have run the course from fade the open to sell the lunchtime rally (been a while) -- all about interest rates and expectations into next week // see if STOX-- USD/JPY correlation holds

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:53 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

ib// if your gonna talk about small businesses in the US paying back loans then that is easy, with a strong dollar they can compete with the likes of walmart etc on the home front or become their supplier =)

Paris ib 17:46 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

Rafe - I think the real shock for the Japanese was going from easy money.... large loans and low interest rates to: refunding those loans at high interest rates or not being able to roll debts at all. A killer for small business. The economy crashed not surprisingly. Property never recovered.

If we are in the process of going through the same sort of thing in the West then the outlook for the economy is not good.

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:42 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

ib// This content of this article is very true! loan taking can be avoided very easily!

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:39 GMT June 4, 2014
Two Great Articles
Reply   
Odds of an ECB Surprise?

Eurozone Headed for Japan-Like Deflation?

Click to read these articles

Paris ib 17:34 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

In Japan for a long time now interest rates to small private borrowers comes at interest rates of more than 20%.

This is a country with the lowest interest rates in the world and one of the highest savings rates.

Loan Sharks in Japan

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:33 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

anyhows there goes euro like i said it is shorting like crazy... we may reach the bend of the trend very quickly, i.e. accelerated long term trend.

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:30 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

ib// if they have higher capital requirements then obviously if a small joe wants to take a loan at a higher rate then naturally he has 4 choices, operate on small margin high turnover or high margin low turnover however if he operates on the second option then his competitor is gonna cannibalize his business! The third option is simply stay static i.e. until the loan is completely repaid meaning pay all expenses including operating expenses etc but save little or nothing. when the loan is repaid their business condition may improve, 4th option with the small amount saved one can hive off a smaller business (secured with a contractual customer) which would be financed with some of the savings, would seek to improve the economic lifestyle of the borrower in some way.

or well that is what i would do...

Paris ib 17:29 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

.

BIS

Paris ib 17:23 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

nh - until Basel III is repealed and the BIS seriously investigated the impact on economic growth world wide will continue to be negative. And the guys who set this up KNEW that when they set the rules.

Mark Carney and BIS

Paris ib 17:20 GMT June 4, 2014
Cable

Mark Carney: chairman of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) at Basel.

Livingston nh 17:16 GMT June 4, 2014
Cable

Another aside - Carney may not understand that BoE is not BoC - interest rate differential between the US and Canada are not the same effect as EU and UK

Livingston nh 17:10 GMT June 4, 2014
Cable

red - BoE can't move too far away from its biggest trading partner -- much of the UK GDP recovery is tied to exports -- raise your interest rate while ECB is trying to push the EUR down ?? probably not too likely

Paris ib 17:10 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

red - yep, so then you have Japan: falling credit, weak growth, low and/or falling wages, low interest rates and very powerful mega corporations in cahoots with the government - who can borrow at will at unbelievably low interest.

Was Japan the prototype?

london red 17:07 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

Why should they lend to folk for a 200-300% return over 25-30 years when they can leverage and make that in the markets monthly. Looks like only gov owned banks will lend or be created to lend to little old Joe.

Livingston nh 17:07 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

Basel III is not gonna survive -- besides the go-arounds there is the basic problem that the premise is flawed (i.e., capital levels) -- jp posted some Bean commentary a while back - he admits missing the financial meltdown but hubristically assures his listeners that the "system" is better off because of higher capital requirements (IT'S NEVER DIFFERENT THIS TIME)

london red 17:04 GMT June 4, 2014
Cable

nh, also struggling to close under 16730. What gives? Fate tied to euro

Paris ib 17:04 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

Rafe - you are absolutely correct. The little guy will continue to find credit hard to come by - world wide.

Who are these BIS people anyhow? They make the rules that count that's for sure. And we don't get to vote them in or out.

Paris ib 17:02 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

Hollande is absolutely despised in France. And his agenda seems to another one: the concentration of power and control in the hands of the few. Recently he announced he's eliminating a certain number of regions in France. So we have more agglomeration going on. He's a "power to the EU" all the way. The agenda of these people is not the economy or anything they state for the media. So I wouldn't even look for him to propose anything likely to help the economy.

Livingston nh 16:57 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

IB - this may seem unrelated but Hollande needs to step up - the GE-Alstom deal needs to be tied to BNP proposed by US DoJ - if he can make that stick he can reverse the austerity straitjacket for the EU by backing these folks off the 3% // I don't think he's got the brass but Europe is looking for somebody

Paris ib 16:57 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

Absolutely correct and it's happening world wide.

Paris ib 16:56 GMT June 4, 2014
Record
Reply   
New record in the S and P index.

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:56 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

ib// This Basel III if they are going to impose regulatory measures on banks etc, then obviously it will be harder for smaller banks to survive isn't it? Meaning they will not be able to give loans to the smaller people like low tech businesses, family run busineses etc. am i correct in thinking this?

Paris ib 16:54 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

"Allowing the BIS to impose unreasonable restrictions on the use of brokered funds within the Basel III process would destabilize many important financial institutions and even threaten the ability of these banks to provide credit to the U.S. economy."

I think the focus on interest rates in relation to economic activity is misplaced. Basel III is more fundamental and not discussed. Much higher short term interest rates could see funds flow say to the U.S. - but we haven't got that (higher short term interest rates in the United States) and the likelihood of getting that in the short term seems to be slim. So all we are dealing with is speculative moves in reaction to more jaw boning from Central Banks.

Basel III

Paris ib 16:49 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

nh - I have no illusions that the ECB wants to kick start the economy. The real agenda is only one: saving the Euro as a viable currency at an exchange rate they choose.

While the world struggles with Basel III - and the crippling impact that has on bank lending - interest rates won't make any difference at all, unless of course the FED decides to take short term rates much higher very quickly.

Who runs the BIS anyhow?

Livingston nh 16:48 GMT June 4, 2014
Cable

Cable continues to have trouble closing above the daily 55 ema despite repeated forays above --- the daily 89 EMA which is LT support (home of the infamous 1.6450 cautionary comment) beckons

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:47 GMT June 4, 2014
Platform down.

can anyone confirm if their platform blipped out or was it just my connection.

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:36 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

ib// I do not feel that we can experience any immediate impact of any policy statements etc unless we live in the countries in which these currencies are used as main tender, however when we experience the impact in our own countries in terms of purchasing and selling power then they make other changes, in other words the markets are always technically in "verbal flux".

Livingston nh 16:36 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

I suggest if Draghi pulls a Bernanke the EUR will fall from a lack of confidence -- as mentioned interest rate levels are not a cure BUT that it is a longer term issue because most folks think otherwise -- if draghi can't overcome opposition to simple conventional wisdom the ECB will never be able to take effective measures to push the whole EUR economy higher (fiscal side to this too of course which involves NASTY horse trading and perhaps some pain in the non- EUR EU)

Paris ib 16:28 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

Draghi set the tone for the weaker EUR/USD at his last press conference. We have to see what he delivers tomorrow. The market is set up for something fairly bold. A failure to deliver is likely to see short covering in the Euro. Indeed, even if they come up with something we are likely to see short covering. The key, I suppose, will be in regard to the equivalent of what the FED is doing and what he did last time: FORWARD GUIDANCE. If he can keep the market dangling in anticipation of some future excitement he may be able to keep the weaker Euro trend going. How long for is another question altogether. We have the ECB and NFP on Friday. Volatility guaranteed.

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:23 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD

EUR stops just hit... Hang on to your shorts!!!

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:19 GMT June 4, 2014
Platform down.
Reply   
Anyone trading with o-&-A. their platform just froze and kicked me off.

Then I heard a big GLUG on my power supply and lights went to low voltage for 1 split second.

I was not disconnected from the net though just the broker platform...

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:14 GMT June 4, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
Long Term I see dollar strength across the board! That is why I posted!

Great opportunities... hang on boys!!

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:04 GMT June 4, 2014
EUR/USD.
Reply   
I was wrong on euro guys, expecting. 1.46! then 1.14!! then 1.46! uurrgh!!

The trend has changed, we are headed down, we should get to the lower level or thereabouts. I feel that it may be an accelerated downtrend.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:59 GMT June 4, 2014
Adapt or die!

Tks Rafe, appreciared

GVI Forex john 15:58 GMT June 4, 2014
Risk on (green) Risk off (red) Table


  • Yields in European prime fixed income markets are now higher  on the back of increases in the U.S.. Markets should now be set up now for a modest  ECB policy ease Thursday. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are higher. U.S. Treasury yields are up.
  • Equities were moistly lower in the Far East earlier.  European bourses are mostly lower. U.S. equity futures are up modestly
  • The U.S.10-yr is 2.61%, +2bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:55 GMT June 4, 2014
Adapt or die!
Reply   
Jay// Nice Article.... The adapt or die one. =)

You got mail.

Livingston nh 15:53 GMT June 4, 2014
Eurozone Headed for Japan-Like Deflation?

There are two kinds of debt - lifestyle maintenance and investment - private and public use both - public debt payable in local paper currency is money (19th century economics was based on money that had widget conversion e.g, sea shells, gold or stone wheels) - only private debt is deflationary (Fisher's error)

Low interest rates encourages hoarding, i.e., money comes out of the economy -- VAT is taxes, taxes usually reduce efficiency of local money -- This is part of the MYTH of Austerity as currently practiced in the EU

Reducing interest rates to combat deflation is a fool's game because it slows money down to the point where it disappears (hoarding)

Paris ib 15:50 GMT June 4, 2014
Eurozone Headed for Japan-Like Deflation?

Honestly there is so much more to this. In Italy for example Monti brought in this draconian tax audit regime. If you buy a car over a certain number of cylinders you AUTOMATICALLY get a tax audit. The result? Well first there is no longer a second hand market for big cars and new car sales have plummeted. Everyone is scared to spend any money in case they get a tax audit. (The fiscal police in Italy are a bit scary. They are not very educated and they treat everyone like criminals. Fines are huge and if you go to court to dispute them then at every level of appeal the fine doubles.) Bank accounts are monitored, you can't hold or use cash for transactions. The limit is 1000 euros. After that you get reported to the tax police. This has had a huge impact on real estate sales and building.... so the statistics tell you what is going on but they don't tell you WHY stuff is happening. If the Italian economy is limping there are reasons beyond what the pundits would have you believe.

PAR 15:31 GMT June 4, 2014
Eurozone Headed for Japan-Like Deflation?

Raise VAT like they did in Japan . Imported goods also pay VAT , prices rise and it lowers the huge budget deficits .
If inflation should increase too fast you can always lower the VAT again .

The sorceres apprentice's at the entral bank have lost their power . Monetary policy is out , fiscal policy is in .

GVI Forex Blog 15:26 GMT June 4, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Anticipation is running high ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision, and many analysts believe that most investors are now already in their preferred position ahead of the meeting. Rate cuts seem to be a given and another LTRO would not ruffle many feathers, but outright QE seems unlikely

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: ADP Disappoints, Markets Positioning for ECB Action, US May Jobs Report

GVI Forex john 15:15 GMT June 4, 2014
Eurozone Headed for Japan-Like Deflation?
Reply   
Into the ECB decision...

Eurozone Headed for Japan-Like Deflation?

dc CB 14:42 GMT June 4, 2014
Risk on (green) Risk off (red) Table



The V Recovery.

ISM # was clearly known way before the release, just look a 15m futures chart

snookered in so many ways...

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT June 4, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -3.400 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +1.660 prev.
Gasoline: +0.210 vs. 0.000 exp vs. -1.800 prev.
Distillates: +2.000 vs. +1.000 exp vs. -0.195 prev.
Cap/Util: 90.8% vs. 90.1% exp vs. 89.90% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 14:18 GMT June 4, 2014 Reply   
June 4, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, June 5. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Factory Orders, BOE Decision, EZ- Retail Sales, ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, CA- Ivey PMI

GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 5, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:17 GMT June 4, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News
Reply   


June 4, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, June 5. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Factory Orders, BOE Decision, EZ- Retail Sales, ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, CA- Ivey PMI

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: DE- Factory Orders, BOE Decision, EZ- Retail Sales, ECB Decision.
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas, CA- Ivey PMI.


GVI Forex john 14:11 GMT June 4, 2014
Risk on (green) Risk off (red) Table

10-yr 2.606%

GVI Forex john 14:10 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014 U.S. ISM Services PMI

Mixed outlook for Friday payroll. ISM Employment sub-component is just about as accurate as ADP in predicting NFP.

GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014 U.S. ISM Services PMI

U.S. final Markit Service PMI revised slightly lower. ISM better than expected. Employment sub-component improves.

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014 U.S. ISM Services PMI
Reply   



ALERT
56.3 vs. 55.5 exp. vs. 55.2 prev.
Employment sub-component
52.4 vs. 51.3 exp. vs. n/a prev.


RELEASE: ISM Services PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Markit final Services PMI
Reply   



ALERT
58.1 vs. 58.4 exp. vs. 58.4 (flash)


Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer



Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT June 4, 2014
April 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade



U.S. Trade Deficit worsens. Bad for 2Q14 GDP.

GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT June 4, 2014
Final 1Q14 U.S. Productivity
Reply   



ALERT
-3.20% vs. -2.60% exp. vs. -1.70% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT June 4, 2014
April 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade
Reply   



ALERT
-47.2 vs. -40.4 exp. vs. -40.38 (r -44.2) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-0.640 vs. +0.200 exp. vs. +0.080 prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

You might want to click on the chart below to get nearly 15 years history on the data. The recent past couple of years looks dead flat to me.

GVI Forex john 12:25 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

Monthly jobs U.S.


ADP data weaker than forecast and previous data revised down slightly. April data were considerably weaker than actual NFP result.






Click on chart for more than 13-yr history



tokyo ginko 12:21 GMT June 4, 2014
sold crude 103.35
Reply   
Sell Crude
Entry: 103。35 Target: 98。10 Stop: call level 104

sold crude 103.35 done

PAR 12:18 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

Lets wait 2.5 hours , maybe it gets revised.

PAR 12:17 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

Disappointing ADP numbers . Almost no job creations as monetary policy is no longer effective , on the contrary it is hurting the real economy .

GVI Forex john 12:16 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

ADP underperforms but its not a reliable indicator (either way) of NFP.

GVI Forex john 12:08 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment
Reply   
ADP Private jobs data due at 12:15 GMT

Markets see 215K vs. 220K in April

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:41 GMT June 4, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

it may come down to where stops are resting. Suggest watching my video. 2 weeks within 1.3584-1.3688.

PAR 11:40 GMT June 4, 2014
Deflation
Reply   
If European inflation is too low , why not raise VAT immediately and next month all deflationary problems are solved. Too simple for geniuses as Draghi and Co ?

GVI Forex john 11:35 GMT June 4, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
Volatile range so far in emini S&P futures. USDJPY has just moved back in synch with the emini.


london red 11:24 GMT June 4, 2014
Cable
Reply   
JP if still interested, cable looks a short here with tight stop above 200 hour for risk averse, alternatively above recent highs (above 82) to avoid any stop run.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:23 GMT June 4, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

As posted on GVI Forex


Video Market Update

See the importance of 1.3650

GVI Forex john 11:15 GMT June 4, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

COT is what it is. I don't believe the CFTC is going to change it anytime soon.

My point is that the ECB has provided a lot of forward guidance about what will be announced in about 24 hours, and any trader with a pulse will be positioned the way they want to be into the announcement.

We are now at the point of handicapping the likely REACTION to the news assuming most people have a correct notion of whats going to be released.

Mtl JP 10:56 GMT June 4, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

john 09:17 - Re "markets are now positioned the way they want to be" - is that a COT preview that will become public on Friday ?

GVI Forex Blog 10:13 GMT June 4, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Dealers were looking ahead to the key events of the week (Thurs ECB decision and Friday's US Payroll report). Overall the sentiment viewed the recent steepening trend of the US yield curve likely to intact and pushing USD higher

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Services data suggest weak prices undermining the area's recovery; Draghi said to be posed to keep rate-cut option open even after a June move

GVI Forex john 09:17 GMT June 4, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply   
Its my view that markets are now positioned the way they want to be into the ECB decision tomorrow. Rate cuts seem to be a given and another LTRO would not ruffle a lot of feathers. As for QE, Its my sense that aggressive steps are still unlikely.

Bottom-line, the market is set up for ECB ease and this leaves a lot of room for disappointment if the central bank does not surprise us.

The odd question is whether not enough action to promote growth will lead to a STRONGER EURUSD? Before the ECB follies on Thursday we get the unpredictable ADP private employment survey from the U.S. on the N.Y. open today. A strong report should be USD supportive. Street expectations for the data are modest.

GVI Forex john 09:05 GMT June 4, 2014
Eurozone GDP 1Q14



EZ 1Q14 GDP. Preliminary data unrevised.



GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT June 4, 2014
Eurozone GDP 1Q14
Reply   




ALERT
qq: +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
yy: +0.90% vs. +0.90% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.



face="Arial" size="4">Eurozone GDP Data




TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

SaaR KaL 09:02 GMT June 4, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Short Cable

GVI Forex Blog 08:58 GMT June 4, 2014
Final Service PMIs from the Eurozone and U.K, flat. Heavy U.S. Calendar. Focus: ADP
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- ADP Jobs, Trade, Productivity, ISM Service PMI, Beige Book, CA- Trade, BOC Decision

U.K. Services PMI data were stronger than forecast but nevertheless still fell in the month. Eurozone Service PMI data were mixed as a whole, but Eurozone German and French Service PMI were revised down from their flash estimates. Overall the data were mixed. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

Final Service PMIs from the Eurozone and U.K, flat. Heavy U.S. Calendar. Focus: ADP

GVI Forex john 08:44 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014 GB Services PMI

Looking at the two PMI charts together, the various European Service sectors look like they have turned about flat. The manufacturing sector data (out Monday) are looking softer.

GVI Forex john 08:39 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014 GB Services PMI

U.K. May Services PMI surpasses market expectations, but the data were still down mo/mo..

GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014 GB Services PMI
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

58.6 vs. 58.2 exp. vs. 58.7 prev.


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:29 GMT June 4, 2014
Risk on (green) Risk off (red) Table
Reply   


  • Yields in European prime fixed income markets are steady. Markets have stabilized as all are set up now for modest  ECB policy ease Thursday. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are now lower. U.S. Treasury yields are mixed.
  • Equities were mostly lower in the Far East earlier.  European bourses are mostly steady. U.S. equity futures are mixed
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.57%, -2bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex john 08:12 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014 EZ Final Services PMI

Euro area Services PMI's overall look stronger than their manufacturing Surveys, which might have turned lower.

GVI Forex john 08:08 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014 EZ Final Services PMI

EZ, Germany and France final Services PMI all revised slightly lower...

GVI Forex john 08:00 GMT June 4, 2014
May 2014 EZ Final Services PMI
Reply   




News ALERT
Service PMIs:
EZ: 53.2 vs. 53.5 exp. vs. 53.5 (flash)
France: 49.1 vs. 49.2 exp. vs. 49.2 (flash)
Germany: 56.0 vs. 56.4 exp. vs. 56.4 (flash)



Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

Haifa ac 07:27 GMT June 4, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Does EURUSD have to squeeze out the shorts before making a new low or can it do it without a squeeze.

how can you squeeze the side with the profits???
Since Feb 12 2014 there is not ONE LONG with proifts-- so all the shorts are PROFITABLE-- how can you squeeze them?
You can only squeeze the LONGS!

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 07:26 GMT June 4, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Repeat earlier post

Question for the forum

Does EURUSD have to squeeze out the shorts before making a new low or can it do it without a squeeze.

Alternative is a squeeze higher that has some legs.

Pattern to watch: 1.36, which has traded 5 days in a row

Key levels: 1.3584 - 1.3650

Bias stays negative as long as below 1.3650

PAR 06:50 GMT June 4, 2014
German Saving Banks
Reply   
German saving banks angry at Draghi as lower interest rates will do nothing to help real economy but just will accelerate the " expropriation of savers " . Extreme financial repression .

PAR 06:33 GMT June 4, 2014
BNP Paribas

Paris threats to block Us - Europe trade negotiations over BNP US fine .

PAR 06:22 GMT June 4, 2014
BNP Paribas
Reply   
Obama and Hollande friends ? Sanctions against France more severe than sanctions against Russia ?

Hollande writes Obama a letter to asking to reduce the $10 billion fine as it is creating systemic risk and hurting the French economy .

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:33 GMT June 4, 2014
AceTrader Jun 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, AUD/USD

04 Jun 2014 01:56GMT

USD/JPY - 102.61

Despite y'day's brief retreat to 102.27, the greenback ratcheted higher against the Japanese yen to 102.55 in NY n then 102.67 in Asian morning due to the sell off in U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. 10-year yield climbed to 2.6% yesterday, the highest level since May 14, due to that speculation that the Wed's release of U.S. ADP employment report will show the U.S. added more than 200,000 jobs for a third month.

Bids are now located at 102.40-20 n more at 102.05-00 with some stops seen below 102.00. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 102.75-85 with mixture of offers n stops seen at 103.00.

04 Jun 2014 01:34GMT

AUD/USD - 0.9285
The Australian dollar jumped to 0.9299 after the release of robust Australia's GDP data which came in at 1.1% q/q n 3.5% y/y versus economists' forecast of 0.9% q/q n 3.2% y/y respectively.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Australia GDP, Japan Markit service PMI, Itarly Markit/ADACI service PMI, France Markit service PMI, U.K. Halifax house prices, Markit/CIPS service PMI, euro zone service PMI, producer prices, GDP (revised), U.S. ADP national employment, trade balance, productivity (revised), labor costs, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, BoC rate decision.

dc CB 01:55 GMT June 4, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

PS
Canada's IVEY...which this Forum's owners think is too variable mo to mo to mean anything, does on its Website show Both the Adjusted and the Non Adjusted Data. For anyone to see for free

dc CB 01:52 GMT June 4, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



"""a Friday Fudgie Adjusted Employ #"""""
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

As Bloomberg reports, the ISM said it will manually vet all data because it hasn’t identified why its computer software introduced an error into yesterday’s May manufacturing index. That's right: a day after its unprecedented humiliation, the ISM still has no idea how its data was "glitched" by a computer (note the use of the passive voice: there never is an actual person responsible for such glaring errors).

we share the table that SMRA sent out to subscribers which is the only place, to our knowledge, where unadjusted ISM data is available. And there you have it: the May unadjusted New Orders print was 60.5: the lowest since February while the % of respondents saying "Better" was actually tied for the lowest since January. Somehow, with the magic of seasonality this ended up being the best adjusted print of the year!

when the entire market moves due to a seasonal adjustment which makes the worst month since February into the best month of 2014, then something is very, very wrong, and certainly very manipulated.

We certainly have an idea why the ISM had zero desire to make these unadjusted numbers public in the first place.

The Farce Continues: ISM Still Has No Idea Why Its Computers Malfunctioned, And Much More...

Belgrade TD 01:41 GMT June 4, 2014
AUD
Reply   
+1.1* vs +1.0% exp and +0.8% last ... the annual reading at +3.5% vs 3.3% exp and 2.8% last ...

Brock Thor 00:21 GMT June 4, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

JOHN
Your Weekly Trading Planner post appreciated Thank You.

Brock Thor 00:17 GMT June 4, 2014
GBP/JPY long ?
Reply   
Reuters...a long to test 180 round number in weeks to come.
Price nearing apex of a triangle after nearly 6month consolidation.
Next key resistance at 172.55.

I'll probably go long again after a break north of 173 and shoot for 179.90.
I'm +14 pips from 171.526.---short money.

If this runs out of gas. I'll close everything.
It's dancing nicely on a 21Ema and 25 Sma ...1hour chart.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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