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Forex Forum Archive for 06/12/2014

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Brock Thor 23:31 GMT June 12, 2014
Eur/Usd
Reply   
Closed two short positions .
+57
Gonna wait this out to short again.

dc CB 23:09 GMT June 12, 2014
Coming soon...or not
Reply   
first time novelest. Pretty good read in today's circumstances, velly well could be the plot.

The Trident Deception
Rick Cambell

Syd 22:54 GMT June 12, 2014
Pound spikes on rate-hike talk from BOE Gov. Carney
Reply   
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The pound jumped to an intraday high against the dollar Thursday after Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney said the first interest-rate hike could come sooner than the market currently expects. "There's already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike and this decision is becoming more balanced. It could happen sooner than markets currently expect," he said in the annual Mansion House speech. The pound GBPUSD +0.01% rose as high as $1.6902 in the wake of the comments, up from $1.6791 late Wednesday.

link

Livingston nh 22:47 GMT June 12, 2014
Morning Levels

EUR/GBP reaction to a mere comment
tells why MPC can't hike ---- Cameron can explain to Carney about timing

syd sf 22:33 GMT June 12, 2014
Morning Levels
Reply   
eur - all bot time frames sell at 68 they target 27 18 and 03 (short) .. they are trying to sell more @55 at the moment.

gbp - they look for rally to 1.6972

eurcad - target 1.4655
euraud - target 1.4342

pretty high chance once gbp finds a top - eurusd tests 1.3500

(just my opinion) BOL.


Livingston nh 22:32 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

and before anybody starts w/ the weak economy and low inflation or employment or last year GDP -- inflation is always about the future and rates must be priced accordingly // that's why rates lag -- qb4 to qahd

Livingston nh 22:24 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

red -- most folks believe in inflation (i.e., cost of living) not as a pointy headed theory -- Fed only has to sell Congress which after Novenber is ez until next year

Fed must stay w/i bounds set by the market -- inflation at 3.6 % and funds at sub 1% is not acceptable // there is no New Normal or New Neutral -- it's simple math // it ain't different this time

tokyo ginko 22:21 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney tips Fed's hand- Pro USD

thank God Brazil won 3-1 after an early own goal...else the world would have turned upside down..

humanity lives on...even on Friday 13th...

dc CB 22:17 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney tips Fed's hand- Pro USD

and it that ain't enough

Full Moon
Friday the 13th

runaway runaway runaway

TO THE BEACH

dc CB 22:09 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney tips Fed's hand- Pro USD

WmBanzai7 puts it best

soccer mania

dc CB 22:07 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney tips Fed's hand- Pro USD

sorry but I think it is time to
Sit On You Hands OR
RUN for YOUR LIVES

IMHO
the O Blinked for "whatever gain" the release of the 5 signaled NOW

remember he's a.....OOL

london red 21:40 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

nh, my point is can you sell rate rises to the public if growth is sub f/c. today i read some looking for -1.6 q1. add that to say 3 for q2 and halve it, its hardly setting the world on fire. think they have to risk letting inflation overshoot, has been some talk of that recently.

USA ZEUS 21:25 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney tips Fed's hand- Pro USD
Reply   
Short GBP/USD at 1.6934

Livingston nh 21:15 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

red - growth is (should be?) irrelevant to the market (buyers) --- inflation is a process that feeds upon prior inflation levels // if you can't make 5% in a 3.8% environment why bother

london red 21:07 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

nh, im with you on the cpi its well due in the US. but not sure the growth will be there (3-4%). can they really talk about rates if growth around 2.-2.5%?

GVI Forex john 21:03 GMT June 12, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

FRIDAY 13 June 2014
  • JP- BOJ - No rate change
  • US- PPI- Part of the picture
  • US- Univ of Mich Survey prelim-  Key data

MONDAY 16 June 2014
  • EZ- CPI- ECB targets Inflation
  • US- TIC Flows- Watched closely by some
  • US-  Industrial  Production- Key cyclical indicator 

TUESDAY 17June 2014
  • GB-  CPI, RPIX etc.- BOE targets inflation
  • DE- ZEW Survey- key sentiment index
  • US- Housing Starts & Permits- Key housing Statistic
  • US- CPI- Price metric for Fed

WEDNESDAY
18 June 2014
  • GB- BOE Policy Minutes- latest policy decision
  • US- Current Account- broadest measure of trade
  • US-  Fed Decision + Presser-  policy outlook key  

Livingston nh 20:57 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

RED - most of these CB folks are economystics
very prone to politics -- he has an election and the Fed to consider

Fed MUST be first === November (CPI 3.5)

london red 20:56 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

euro 44 and 35 areas that need to hold to keep focus on 75/80. eurgbp fib at 8006 just breached. barrier at 8000. 7990 78.6 of 2012/2013 high/low

dc CB 20:52 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

so fill me in. What's BPs stake in IRAQ

london red 20:47 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

nh fwiw there is good reason to raise rates in the uk this year. should they consider external factors? thats when the confusion comes. otherwise its textbook.

dc CB 20:45 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

Test for link

if it works....5y futures after hours

ZF

dc CB 20:40 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

dosen't matter "what he really said"

matters WHEN he said it.

at true to his heritage Goldman (kill the Shorts Hank Paulson) learned at the Masters Knee...etc etc etc

32 D'oh's in 15 Seconds

GVI Forex john 20:36 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

Carney Comments...
Rate Increases Will Be Gradual, Limited
Rates Could Rise Sooner Than Markets Expect

Livingston nh 20:35 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

typically the fed panics b4 BoE

dc CB 20:23 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News

looking like WTIC $107 before the globex close

london red 20:23 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney

big cable stops expected above 16920. but beware pressing on upper daily bolli now.

Livingston nh 20:20 GMT June 12, 2014
Carney
Reply   
Carney has a problem - most of his trade is w/EU which is going the other way // he is blowing smoke to mollify the MPC hawks -- if he is really serious he will sell off some holdings to scare the hawks

dc CB 20:20 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News


*Pound spikes talk of rate hike by BOE Gov Carney

what better way to protect against $113 Brent. no slacker there.

....why did Blair go with those americans besides reaping a personnal fortune?

dc CB 20:15 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Full Force Algos After Hours

*Pound spikes talk of rate hike by BOE Gov Carney

*Intel shares up nearly 6% on strong guidance.


"the markets are NOT rigged" Mary Jo White. under Oath .

london red 20:15 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News

bought eurgbp 8020. carney on the wires confirms what everyone else has been saying - rate may rise earlier. everything now in price imo. stop at 7990

Livingston nh 20:02 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News

red - usd/try 2.15 would be first stop - above 21 dma and daily 89 ema right above // if the market locks on to Turkey issue w/ kurds and Iraq (or islam war) THE WINTER HIGH COULD GET PASSED

EU does much trade w/ Turkey -- chaos is usually not good for business

HK [email protected] 19:49 GMT June 12, 2014
euro



K.I.S

Euro probably hit a bottom. Daily key reversal(EUR/USD) in the making.

Worth watching EUR/JPY for some recoil.

dc CB 19:49 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

"and then the we have the NEW FOMC next week"

SnP cracks and trades a few days below 1900?

Coincident with the FMOC is OPEX: Quad Witching. Currencies are rolling this week, Indexes Roll after tom. (to Sept contracts). Bonds did it last week.

Who asked for Volitility? Cumin' Up.

How will the FREE MONEY Boys play this out and still nail 1/2 Year Bonuses at the end of the following week...Fri 27th, with new All-Time highs.

have a Stirred not Shaken, and ponder the strat....Fly in it all...Al-C(I)ADA

GVI Forex john 19:43 GMT June 12, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Livingston nh 19:42 GMT June 12, 2014
euro

Jay - that's a good confidence builder -- he's uglier than me

london red 19:41 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News

nh, what levels interest you in try (usd i presume). its come a long way back since the corruption issues.

HK [email protected] 19:41 GMT June 12, 2014
euro



Euro strength currently comes from the simple fact that Specs, went big time short, before the interest decision.

So now they are booked for a Banksters squeeze! Until where? Hard to say.

dc CB 19:32 GMT June 12, 2014
Al-Qaeda collapsed the US market.

"t'll be $4.50 to $5+ gas-at-the-pump"

ps: just another example of: "we fuc$ed up. U pick up the tab, and don't forget to tip"

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:30 GMT June 12, 2014
euro

I can answer that

EUR strength comes from its role as the anti dollar in the global reserve mix

Otherwise it would be 1.15-1.20

Livingston nh 19:28 GMT June 12, 2014
euro

sja - could you outline the EUR strengths ?

GVI Forex john 19:23 GMT June 12, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


Livingston nh 19:22 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News

Consider that Turkey is more important than UKR -- this is not political it is military/religious --- watch the linchpin and it is not Iraq

HK [email protected] 19:21 GMT June 12, 2014
USD/JPY



Correction: Should read 101.60

HK [email protected] 19:20 GMT June 12, 2014
USD/JPY
Reply   


Currently sitting on a strong support at 106.6.

One may bet we are on the low for today.

dc CB 19:15 GMT June 12, 2014
Al-Qaeda collapsed the US market.

it's the $106.50+++ and going higher WTIC that's killing stox

2nd Q GDP's "excuse" won't be the weather. it'll be $4.50 to $5+ gas-at-the-pump. No Mo Money left to spend on Stuff.

london red 19:14 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News

looks like euro short covering will gather steam. risk of escalation over weekend, another round of expiries at 136 and lowered gdp expectations (goldman looks for 3.7% q2, good luck with that, while i have seen even -1.6 revisions for q1). looks like we need to run through 70-90 we the 10 day becoming a panic line in sand for me. if we go higher than we travel faster. interim, eurgbp at 8064 is an earlier marker. that one can climb fast since market is heavily short.

HK [email protected] 19:11 GMT June 12, 2014
Al-Qaeda collapsed the US market.
Reply   


Nice Alibi for the administration hehe.

Gold will face increased buying, but also liquidations on background of losses from other instruments.

1277 target for those who want to scrap some profits.

HK [email protected] 19:01 GMT June 12, 2014
EUR/CHF may target 1.2140.
Reply   
/

GVI Forex Blog 18:57 GMT June 12, 2014
Focus on Iraq Instability. Data on Thursday Mostly Disappoints
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Industrial Output, Bank of Japan, US- PPI, University of Michigan

U.S. weekly Jobless and the latest Retail Sales data were lackluster. worries continue to mount over Iraq. Australian Employment data fell short of expectations in May with net employment falling, rather than increasing as expected, Recent job growth has been disappointing. The AUD was not impacted adversely by the report. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

Focus on Iraq Instability. Data on Thursday Mostly Disappoints

HK [email protected] 18:55 GMT June 12, 2014
Unacceptable? Indeed
Reply   


Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has told President Vladimir Putin that reports of Russian tanks moving into Ukrainian territory are unacceptable.

HK [email protected] 18:47 GMT June 12, 2014
Nice country is Brazil.
Reply   


Conflict and instability in Brazil too.

May affect the pleasure of watching football.

So something is brewing in S. America too.

Yesss! Only Asia missing in the puzzle:)

bali sja 18:44 GMT June 12, 2014
euro

yawn, now they are talking defensive usd blah
dont worry soon 1.35xxx is history and that famous 'wished, could've, should've' thing comes to many minds
meanwhile it is still not too late for the plan 1.35-1.36, cherrioosss
dont worry about all those geopolitical stuffs, it is soccer party time dudes, cease fire and watch the world cup!

HK [email protected] 18:44 GMT June 12, 2014
Not too late to the party!(WSJ)



Iran joining the conflict has direct implication on oil prices.

Soon the Hormuz straits may be shut by the rebels and then...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:37 GMT June 12, 2014
Not too late to the party!(WSJ)

Please use the political forum

Paris ib 18:35 GMT June 12, 2014
Not too late to the party!(WSJ)

nh - that's U.S. propaganda. Iran has never invaded any neighbouring country and in Iraq Shiite and Sunni's lived peacefully together before the U.S. invasion. The U.S. is putting out the line that these are all ancient conflicts... blah, blah, blah. Yeah really. It's divide and conquer and the culprit behind the chaos is the United States.

Livingston nh 18:30 GMT June 12, 2014
Not too late to the party!(WSJ)

This is stuff for the much maligned political forum -- Of course they did /// Iran was ready to take on the Taliban in Afghanistan but BUSH went nuts and dragged us into IRAQ //sunni - Shiite conflict goes back centuries -- the modern Middle east maps only go back to the Ottoman Empire loss in WWI

History didn't start yesterday -- some 25 yr old Georgetown grad at the State Dep't might miss the point

HK [email protected] 18:22 GMT June 12, 2014
Not too late to the party!(WSJ)
Reply   
Iran Deploys Forces to Fight al Qaeda-Inspired Militants in Iraq.

Paris ib 18:19 GMT June 12, 2014
Interior Minister Arseny Avakov said tanks entered Ukraine through checkpoint controlled by pro-Russ

nh - it's chess. It's planned. Does that make it a conspiracy? Personally I don't care. But this is not happening by accident. The great game continues. Chinless deviants everywhere. And we pay them to do it.

Paris ib 18:13 GMT June 12, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

Yeah. And lower. FWIW

Livingston nh 18:12 GMT June 12, 2014
Interior Minister Arseny Avakov said tanks entered Ukraine through checkpoint controlled by pro-Russ

RF, ib - see my morning post over on pol forum -- this is SOP --- no surprises, no conspiracies, it's just the way things work

LA JY 18:11 GMT June 12, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

Does anybody see u/j reaching 100?

HK [email protected] 18:08 GMT June 12, 2014
Interior Minister Arseny Avakov said tanks entered Ukraine through checkpoint controlled by pro-Russ



Ib

Now we may guess who are those who supported the Euro against all odds:)

Paris ib 18:08 GMT June 12, 2014
Interior Minister Arseny Avakov said tanks entered Ukraine through checkpoint controlled by pro-Russ

"For the faction that controls the Pentagon, the military industry and the oil industry, the Cold War never ended. It went on 'below the radar' creating a global network of bases and conflicts to advance their long-term goal of Full Spectrum Dominance, the total control of the planet: land, sea, air, space, outer space and cyberspace."

Full Spectrum

Paris ib 18:02 GMT June 12, 2014
Interior Minister Arseny Avakov said tanks entered Ukraine through checkpoint controlled by pro-Russ

[email protected] so there you go. Full spectrum dominance. Hot wars breaking out everywhere. What we're missing to date is a major conflict in Asia. I hear the powers that be are working on that one. Stay tuned.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:01 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News

Seems big risk in usdjpy if risk off gathers steam.

Risk in eurusd is if market starts to cover open positions - hard call but Friday looks like a hard hat day so just pointing out a risk.

Question for fx is where do you find cover.

Paris ib 17:55 GMT June 12, 2014
The Story everyone is ignoring

"Iran has deployed Revolutionary Guard forces to fight al Qaeda-inspired militants that have overrun a string of Iraqi cities, and it has helped Iraqi troops win back control of most of Tikrit, Iranian security sources said."

The Yanks haven't forced Putin's hand in the Ukraine yet but Iran finally bottled and has sent troops to help quell the chaos in Iraq. So there you go one strategic target has been drawn into this conflict. It took years but they got there.

The USD is not gaining on this, stocks are getting sold and more to come. Anarchy is not generally good for the economy.

Iran sends troops to Iraq

dc CB 17:46 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

nh

scarey same thought? lol

dc CB 17:45 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



instant (24hr) profit for the Primary Dealers who picked upped the 44% of yesterday's (Poor) 10Y auction

Livingston nh 17:44 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

CB - and those dealers that were forced into buying the 10 yr yesterday -- coincidence, luck, .........?

Livingston nh 17:40 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

et tu, yen?
__
STOX by close Friday may take out the froth we have seen the last two weeks -- and then the we have the NEW FOMC next week

dc CB 17:37 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

quite a move in Treasuries.

War what's it good for? short squeeze

Overnight Raid on Gold? will force more into them going into the weekend.

GVI Forex john 17:35 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.584% stocks next?

london red 17:26 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

S&p now looks keen on trading in a bit more of last months range. I doubt we cab make 70-80 now so probably 1900/10 beckons

GVI Forex john 17:25 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr now 2.593%

dc CB 17:10 GMT June 12, 2014
The Story everyone is ignoring

The US Embassy in Baghdad cost $750mil.

A State Department official said in January that it still had about 5,000 contractors working in Iraq at the embassy in Baghdad and at consulates in Basra and Erbil. About 2,000 were U.S. civilians. That reflected a steep decrease from January 2013, when the State Department had about 12,500 contractors — 4,500 of them Americans — but it still underscores the significant logistics an evacuation of U.S. diplomatic facilities in Iraq would require.

There also is an unknown number of U.S. security contractors protecting State Department personnel in Iraq. They work from a $10 billion, 5-year Worldwide Protective Services contract the department signed with eight companies in 2010.

Here are the Americans left in Iraq

HK [email protected] 17:09 GMT June 12, 2014
The all out Islamic Showdown Derby on 3D TV.
Reply   


This will no doubt spill into Saudi, and then the US will jump.

Tickets for the show soon(3D TV eyeglasses included).

GVI Forex john 17:08 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.606%

pre-weekend flight to safety? equities are down as well.

GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

30-yr 3.444%
bid-to-cover 2.69 vs 2.52
strong auction

Paris ib 17:04 GMT June 12, 2014
The Story everyone is ignoring

How is Obama going to pay for another military surge?

Livingston nh 17:00 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News

The lack of reaction because previous "crises" weren't really a crisis is why the wolf usually eats the pigs -- is this political, financial or military crisis? context in Iraq is oil so somebody will care

dc CB 16:47 GMT June 12, 2014
The Story everyone is ignoring

OBAMA SAYS "I DON'T RULE OUT ANYTHING" WHEN IT COMES TO HELPING IRAQ DEAL WITH INSURGENTS
OBAMA SAYS US HAS AN INTEREST IN MAKING SURE JIHADISTS DON'T GAIN A FOOTHOLD IN IRAQ
OBAMA SAYS THERE WILL BE SHORT-TERM IMMEDIATE ACTIONS THAT NEED TO BE DONE MILITARILY IN IRAQ, US OFFICIALS LOOKING AT ALL OPTIONS

OBAMA SAYS IRAQ `CLEARLY IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION'
OBAMA SAYS US IS PREPARED TO TAKE MILITARY ACTION WHEN ITS NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS ARE THREATENED

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:40 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News

Traders are wary of reacting too hard to crisis news having been burnt doing so last year with Cyprus and this year with Ukraine.

Iraq may be different as it is not going away but only time will tell.

In any case it argues for a defensive end to the week.

Livingston nh 16:28 GMT June 12, 2014
euro

I suggest Turkey is a Big Deal in this "new" ME problem -- TRY trade

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:16 GMT June 12, 2014
euro

red, or focus stays on the "50" level, a level which will ultimately determine whether the invisible hand has protected 1.35. Iraq has added a new element of risk to a market that has been crisis free for the 2nd year.

GVI Forex Blog 16:14 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The security situation is decaying rapidly in Iraq. In the north, the Kurds moved to seize Kirkuk and its oil fields after the city was abandoned by Iraqi armed forces. Reportedly the Kurds have long coveted the city and its crude resources

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Equity Consolidation Continues

london red 15:55 GMT June 12, 2014
euro
Reply   
anything below 50 probably means this little stop run has come to an end and focus back on downside. 69-99 would be nice to sell but seems plenty of the same mind.

dc CB 15:30 GMT June 12, 2014
The Story everyone is ignoring

So with the Al Qaeda spin off, now armed with the latest US weapons and with nearly half a billion in petty cash courtesy of yesterday's Mosul raid, the insurgents are about to have direct control over several hundred thousands b/d of energy output.


Oil Surges To Highest Since September As Algos Finally Find Iraq On The Map

Paris ib 15:23 GMT June 12, 2014
Geopolitics and the Ukraine

AL whatever. Any kind of analysis is only useful if it has predictive power. So far this does:

"Pressure is being brought against Bulgaria and even Serbia to block construction of the South Stream pipeline that would bring Russian gas into the Balkans and southern Europe."

And it's not a guy. Diana Johnstone wrote the article.

There has been a lot of happy talk around but it seems that geopolitical rumblings which can impact markets (adversely I would suggest) are far from being solved.

GVI Forex john 15:23 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


  • Markets are in an increasingly risk-off posture late in Europe. A possible disintegration of Iraq is a major worry. U.S. data today were not stellar.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly a touch lower,. while yields on the periphery are higher.
  • U.K. yields are steady while U.S. yields have eased. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.62%, -1 bp.
  • Equities closed lower in the Far East earlier. Bourses in Europe are closing lower. U.S. share futures are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Dillon AL 15:12 GMT June 12, 2014
Geopolitics and the Ukraine

IB I stopped reading this article the second it invoked DSK's name. what a load of twaddle this guy rights. very conspiratorial

Paris ib 15:10 GMT June 12, 2014
Russia, Gas, Ukraine and Chinless Deviants
Reply   
The chinless deviants in Brussels continue...

Europe receives 30% of its gas from Russia. Well not anymore I guess. Mere anarchy !

The Bulgarian Pipeline

Paris ib 15:03 GMT June 12, 2014
Geopolitics and the Ukraine

This would be hilarious if it weren't so serious. Europe has been cut off from Russian gas because of the Ukranian crisis. And now Europe is asking the Bulgarians to stop work on an alternative pipeline which could bring gas to Europe via another route. Such a request is absolutely not in Europe's interests but it is happening. This is a completely insane request. Good grief.

Bulgaria, the EU and the Pipeline

Paris ib 14:53 GMT June 12, 2014
USD losing ground
Reply   
"That the Fed believed that it could not buy the bonds outright but needed to disguise its purchase by laundering it through Belgium suggests that the Fed is concerned that the world is losing confidence in the dollar."

Confidence in the USD is the key. Which explains all the pundits endlessly telling us why the USD must rise. And somehow it fails to rise. Those sitting on trillions of USD reserves must be starting to wonder about the wisdom of their choice.

The crux of the matter

GVI Forex Blog 14:49 GMT June 12, 2014 Reply   
June 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, June 13. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output, Bank of Japan, US- PPI, University of Michigan.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for May 13, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:47 GMT June 12, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


June 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, June 13. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output, Bank of Japan, US- PPI, University of Michigan.

  • Far East: JP- Industrial Output, Bank of Japan.
  • Europe: No Maor Data.
  • North America: US- PPI, University of Michigan, COT Report.


Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 14:46 GMT June 12, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

stopped out 41 sht at 50

gone grouper fishing

#5 -9

Paris ib 14:41 GMT June 12, 2014
Geopolitics and the Ukraine
Reply   
"To tighten the U.S. grip on Europe, the United States is using the artificial crisis to demand that its indebted allies spend more on “defense”, notably by purchasing U.S. weapons systems. Although the U.S. is still far from being able to meet Europe’s energy needs from the new U.S. fracking boom..... Pressure is being brought against Bulgaria and even Serbia to block construction of the South Stream pipeline that would bring Russian gas into the Balkans and southern Europe."

The dirty games continue but what I find surprising is how many American voices are coming out against what is happening.

And while this is happening volatility has crashed? You gotta laugh.

The New Iron Curtain

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT June 12, 2014
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
Reply   



ALERT
+107 vs. +110 exp vs. +119 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Paris ib 14:29 GMT June 12, 2014
Iraq spreading crisis. US and Nato will keep out.

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world.... so much for all those grandiose calls of liberation and democracy. Apparently Nato (or the coalition of the willing or whatever they call themselves these days) has just refused a call to aid Iraq in its struggle with the mayhem more radicals take over. Meanwhile Nato build up in the Ukraine continues, the so-called government there is bombing the areas which want to secede. Mere anarchy indeed, but it feels like that was the plan all along.

Mere anarchy

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT June 12, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Business Inventories
Reply   



ALERT
+0.60% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.40% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

width="100" border="1" height="30">

Direct links to primary data sources

jkt abel 13:50 GMT June 12, 2014
sell usdjpy
Reply   
short 101.93, stop 102.21, target open

HK [email protected] 13:21 GMT June 12, 2014
Iraq spreading crisis. US and Nato will keep out.
Reply   


I think Swissy for the current developing crisis, may be supported.

USD will not be a safe haven. Gold too may rise.

GVI Forex john 13:15 GMT June 12, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   
U.S. Weekly jobless claims roughly steady above 300K..





Click on chart for ten-year history



Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 13:13 GMT June 12, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

gm
3541 short .stop 3550 ist tp 3512..

roll em..

Amman wfakhoury 13:11 GMT June 12, 2014
EURUSD sell and buy
Reply   
Following SMS sent to participants today
EURUSD sell tp 13515 turn 13539 any rise above 13539 will return to it if 13515 did not reach..
EURUSD buy tp 13537 turn 13515 any decline below 13515 will return to it if 13538 did not reach
____________________________
Both are excuted and reached

The only one in the world who confirms the next level



GVI Forex john 12:51 GMT June 12, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Retail Sales



U.S. Retail Sales. Headline weaker than expected, but previous data revised higher.


GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT June 12, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
317K vs. 305K exp. vs. 312K (r 313K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.614 vs. n/a exp. vs. 2.603 (r2.603 ) prev.
Press Release



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GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT June 12, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Retail Sales
Reply   



ALERT
+0.30% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.10%(r+0.50%) pre
Ex-Auto: +0.10% v +0.40% exp. v +0.00%(r+0.40%) pre
Ex-Auto/Gas: 0.0% v n/a exp. v -0.10% (r +0.1%) pre


PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Advance Retail Sales


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Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT June 12, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Import Prices
Reply   



ALERT
+0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. -0.40% (r ) prev.


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Direct links to primary data sources

Livingston nh 12:28 GMT June 12, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Agree very much with the perception of movement while in a narrow range -- after the last three tops it took some time to feel the impact (avg 3k) - the last bottom made only after Ben's nightmare induced QE3 in 2012// if this move is real and follows the script we should have some serious downside days the balance of the year -- Volatility PLEASE

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:00 GMT June 12, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

37 pip range yesterday, around 38 so far today. When in tight ranges, small moves can feel like big ones.

On paper, EURUSD is lined up in a perfect storm to move lower yet I get the feeling there is an anti-dollar bias in the market, especially outside the US. Crosses suggest an anti-EUR bias as well but not as much vs. the dollar. This would change if 1.3475 is firmly taken out.

Anyone see it different?

London Misha 11:56 GMT June 12, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - 4th Black Crow & close below Long MA. Nearing NFP low, Double Top target & key 50% Fib at 1.3489 on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Follow on to Bearish Engulfing Pattern & 1st close below Medium MA, all on Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - Schizophrenic Bullish Engulfing Pattern follows Bearish Engulfing & that after an Indecisive Doji on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - 4th White Soldier & close over Long MA on Daily Chart. Market follows Middle Tine of recent Bullish AP!
EURGBP - New 2014 low & 3rd Black Crow on Daily Chart. Nearing Middle Tines support of Nov13-Mar14 AP & 2011-2013 SP.
AUDUSD - 2nd close over Oct13-to-date Downtrend on Daily & a possible Key Reversal Up today! Nears 2014 high!
USDINR - Bullish Doji Cross but snags into overhead Fib resistance band 59.37-59.43 on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - 3rd White Soldier & 2nd close over Medium MA but forming either Bullish Double Top or Bearish Halfway Hesitation on Daily!
USDBRL - Key Reversal Up ends rejection of Upper Band 2.2892-2.3005 resistance. FIFA World Cups starts today with Brazil playing Croatia so don't expect much today!



GVI Forex john 11:16 GMT June 12, 2014
My Best Trade Scenario
Reply   
If you want to be playing prospective interest rate differentials. NZD has the highest odds for moore official rate hikes. Official rate hikes are unlikely from the UK or US in the IMMEDIATE future, but bond markets will not be waiting for the central banks.

As for the EUR, additional ECB ease is likely over the next year, although that might not come from official rate cuts. On balance, expect bund yields not to rise much from present levels as rates within the EZ converge.

SaaR KaL 11:08 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

Then again computing what can not happen
(Time range)
and ordering there...is better the chasing it
funny way of looking at at things

GVI Forex john 11:08 GMT June 12, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR Heat MAP- Focus on changes on the day. Lots of RED again so this remains more a EUR than a USD market. Re: EURNZD, RBNZ HIKED rates by +25bp to 3.25% very early in the day today. As for EURJPY, note we picked up the anomaly in the USDJPY to S&P futures below.

This market makes a lot more sense when you look at it from a couple of angles. I like the USD and EUR bases.




SaaR KaL 11:05 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

gold
1 week
1,273.2570 1,224.8762 69%
1,293.4338 1,205.7197 84%
1,313.6106 1,187.1532 93%
1,333.7874 1,169.1498 98%

Not saying they will happen
it's more unlikely to happen @ some risk value

SaaR KaL 10:57 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

JM
Lets say you want to enter for next 6 weeks +
the assigned probabilities is about how right you are
(Really by choice at diff levels)
if you want to be 98% sure you did the right thing
then order at lowest
84% at middle bottom

SaaR KaL 10:54 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPNZD
Longs
1.9945 1.9496 69%
2.0094 1.9335 84%
2.0244 1.9175 93%
2.0394 1.9019 98%

almost 5 big figures possible error
for entry

NY JM 10:52 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

Kal, can you explain posts like this - it is not clear what you are saying and how to trade using it


EURUSD 6 weeks
Risk Managment
of for entry
Range and odds of being right

1.3985 1.3493 69%
1.4162 1.3319 84%
1.4515 1.2984 98%

it just depends how much you can handle

SaaR KaL 10:44 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

NZDUSD 5 days
0.8591 0.8362 69%
0.8677 0.8289 84%
0.8850 0.8147 98%

doing averages over the week is a good idea

SaaR KaL 10:41 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

5 days
1.3620 1.3398 69%
1.3700 1.3325 84%
1.3862 1.3181 98%

find your layer and do what you can handle

SaaR KaL 10:39 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD 6 weeks
Risk Managment
of for entry
Range and odds of being right

1.3985 1.3493 69%
1.4162 1.3319 84%
1.4515 1.2984 98%

it just depends how much you can handle

HK [email protected] 10:31 GMT June 12, 2014
This is not going to end well???
Reply   


Soon a showdown Derby with Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and who else.

All the great names in the war machines business will be in for Armageddon-Derby.

Let,s buy beer and good quality nuts, for the new TV reality show.

GVI Forex john 10:18 GMT June 12, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
S&P futures and USDJPY are not in synch today. I'm not sure why?

DAX and S&P are trading up nicely together. The two have moved into a less sloppy uptrend on the day.

USDJPY positive??

Mtl JP 10:17 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

those Sunni liberators hold about 80 Turkish nationals
Turkey is a Nato member

GVI Forex john 10:11 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Iraq appears to be quickly falling apart. What a mess.
WTI 105.88 +1.48
Brent 111.67 +1.74

This is not going to end well. Is this the surprise out of left field that many had feared?

GVI Forex Blog 10:07 GMT June 12, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
(CN) China SAFE (fx regulator): FX reserves investment now very diversified; Gold market too small for China's large fx reserves; Yuan's two way moves since Feb lowers inflow pressure.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Iraq unrest continues to rattle oil markets

GVI Forex Blog 09:03 GMT June 12, 2014
Active U.S. Data Calendar. Australian Jobs Data Disappoint
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Weekly Jobless, Import Prices, Retail Sales, 30-yr auction

Australian Employment data fell short of expectations in May with net employment falling, rather than increasing as expected, Recent job growth has been disappointing. The AUD was not impacted adversely by the report. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

Active U.S. Data Calendar. Australian Jobs Data Disappoint

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT June 12, 2014
April 2014 Eurozone Industrial Output
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
mm: +0.80% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -0.30% (r -0.40%) prev.
yy: +1.40% vs. +0.90% exp. vs. -0.10% (r +0.20%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:47 GMT June 12, 2014
May 2014 Australia Employment

EARLIER: AU Employment weaker than expected. Jobs growth trend heading downward.

GVI Forex john 08:39 GMT June 12, 2014
May 2014 Australia Employment
Reply   




-- EARLIER NEWS --

Employment: vs. -4.8K exp. vs. +14.2K (r +10.3) prev.
Rate: 5.80% vs. 5.90% exp. vs. 5.80% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:35 GMT June 12, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • Markets are in a mixed risk posture early in Europe with no clear bias either way at the present time. markets have a lot of U.S. data to digest today.
  • Yields in prime European fixed income markets are mostly steady at this hour.while yields on the periphery are mixed.
  • U.K. yields are  higher in line with the U.S. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.65%, +1 bp.
  • Equities closed lower in the Far East earlier. Bourses in Europe are slightly higher. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


london red 08:18 GMT June 12, 2014
EURO

euro supported by eurjpy but selling in eurgbp pressuring downside. this in turn is continuing to support cable with res at 6845/50.
euro barrier at 1.35 support 13474-90.

SaaR KaL 08:11 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Gave up on Cable shorts
But came out ok over all

now doing these for next week

Starting to Long GBPNZD
2.0204 1.9425

AUDNZD Longs
1.1247 1.0848

NZDUSD shorts
0.8645 0.8240

Paris ib 08:04 GMT June 12, 2014
Stocks and Bonds
Reply   
The U.S. economic recovery examined.

Why QE ?

Paris ib 07:47 GMT June 12, 2014
The FED the USD and Damn Statistics
Reply   
Next week the FED is likely to continue talking up the economic recovery, even after GDP fell 1.1% in the first quarter with some estimates at negative 1.6%. The aim of the game, of course, is propping up the USD. The ECB and the BoJ are involved in the same charade. So we have a type of consensus from the powers-that-be, or at least from the G-7. Paul Craig Roberts suggests that the G-7 is really nothing but a collection of U.S. vassal states. I liked his comments on Russia in his recent articles on their role in WWII (essentially they won the war).

There is, however, a lot of chatter in the corridors about the real state of the U.S. economy. I don't know what it's like on the ground, I don't live there. It would be interesting to hear some anecdotal evidence though. Till then here is Paul Craig Roberts again:

Phantom Jobs

GVI Forex Blog 06:18 GMT June 12, 2014 Reply   
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) RAISES OFFICIAL CASH RATE BY 25BPS TO 3.25%, AS EXPECTED >- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -4.8K V +10.0KE (1s decline in 4 months); UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.8

radeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: NZD hits 3-week highs on hawkish statement accompanying RBNZ rate hike; Australia employment falls but only o - Source TradeTheNews.com

bali sja 04:59 GMT June 12, 2014
EURO

R[email protected] ;) shhh shhh

HK [email protected] 04:18 GMT June 12, 2014
EURO
Reply   


Someone must be buying Euro Big, against pressure of an expected downtrend.

GVI Forex Blog 03:52 GMT June 12, 2014 Reply   
The drop in World Bank’s forecast for growth in 2014 from 3.2% to 2.8% has affected nearly

Morning Briefing : 12-Jun-2014 -0351 GMT

Mtl JP 02:03 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

hey REVDAX been a while since I saw u last - Hope you are wealthy, healthy, wise and happy with a lass !

Ain't such a thing as a rose without thorns : Alberta economy to lead Canada in 2014 by far, RBC says

dont let impressions fool you: Ontario is in deep deficit sh!t, so is Quebec. Quebec lost 26,700 jobs just in may (there will be opportunities soon for cash being King)

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:56 GMT June 12, 2014
AceTrader Jun 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

12 Jun 2014 01:43GMT

USD/JPY - 102.00 ... The greenback remained under pressure after yesterday's cross-inspired weakness to 101.87 due to renewed risk aversion. Nikkei-225 index currently drops by 195 points to 148734 following the retreat in global stock markets. Offers are now tipped at 102.10-20 and more at 102.30-40.
On the downside, mixture of bids and stops is located at 101.80.

12 Jun 2014 00:23GMT

Statement from Japan govt. to cut corporate tax below 30% within a few years, citing a source familiar with the matter.
Reuters reported corp. tax in Japan is nearly 36% for large companies operating in Tokyo. Private-sector members of the govt.'s top economic and fiscal council have proposed cutting the rate to 25% to put it in line with international standards.


Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand RBNZ rate decision, U.K. RICS housing survey, Australia unemployment rate, Japan machinery orders, BoJ monetary policy meeting (12th-13th June), France CPI, current account, euro zone industrial production, U.S. jobless claims, retail sales, import prices, export prices, business inventories, Canada new housing price index.

HK REVDAX 01:50 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

I have been under the impression that the Canadian economy has been doing so well as a result of the bull market in natural resources for the past few years. Not true?

syd sf 01:41 GMT June 12, 2014
bot report

eur/aud hit target

next they will buy eur/cad target will be 1.4770/75 about +60 from here .. just waiting for signal to execute.

HK [email protected] 01:38 GMT June 12, 2014
Liquidity strain still ongoing in China
Reply   


The liquidity strain that swept across China's banking sector in June 2013 is not yet over, and may have spread to the real economy, with businesses feeling the heat, the Beijing-based Economic Observer reports.

China's State Council recently announced the expansion of the targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts in order to meet credit demand from the agricultural sector and small and micro businesses.

During his trip to Inner Mongolia, Chinese premier Li Keqiang also said that the country is experiencing growing difficulty in sourcing funds, as well as bearing a higher cost for credit.

There is ample liquidity in the inter-banking market since overnight rates and seven-day repurchase agreement rates are both at low points, but borrowing rates continue to climb, signaling higher costs for businesses, the newspaper stated.

A report published by Southwestern University of Finance and Economics on May 29 stated that the average borrowing rates at banks stood at 7%, while the average rates offered by private lenders were around 23.5%.

Even state-owned enterprises have begun feeling the pinch, with an executive at one of them saying that the cost for issuing bonds has been rising this year, and the favorable interest rates they enjoyed earlier have been withdrawn.

Banks are also facing an increasingly challenging time, the newspaper said, given that outstanding non-performing loans grew by 54.1 billion yuan (US$8.7 billion) during the first three months of this year to 646.1 billion yuan (US$103.7 billion), while bad loan rates climbed to 1.04% from 1%.

The banks' more cautious attitude has resulted in liquidity not being channeled into the real economy, the newspaper said.

The property sector is expected to bear the brunt under the government's financial reform plans, according to UBS chief China economist Wang Tao, since the current market downturn, unlike those in the past, is caused by oversupply, the government's anti-corruption campaign, and the growing number of investment options.

GVI Forex 01:32 GMT June 12, 2014
Australia
Reply   
NEWS: AUSTRALIA MAY EMPLOYED PERSONS -4800M/M; MNI MEDIAN +10000

NEWS: AUSTRALIA MAY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 5.8%; MNI MEDIAN 5.9%...

Mtl JP 01:16 GMT June 12, 2014
Day's Trades

more finger pointing:

Recession tied to increase in suicides - CBC.ca

The financial crisis has been linked to a 4.5 per cent increase in Canada's suicide rate, according to a study that estimates at least 10,000 extra suicides could be connected to economic hardship in EU countries and North America.
-
Current normally bullying causing someone to snuff themselves out gets a criminal charge... something the co-authors appear to completely miss, much less call for.

NY JM 01:08 GMT June 12, 2014
Eur/Jpy

138 and 102 are key levels now that set respective tones

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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