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Forex Forum Archive for 06/18/2014

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Mtl JP 23:48 GMT June 18, 2014
eurusd

Tallinn viies 21:58 // the printers have been been running their printers red hot for a long long time. There is a good reason why the overlord expressed her confidence in the banking system today. Simple: systemic risk.

Check out this graph: $2.7 trillion of excess reserves in the U.S. banking system

Imagine a) it starts to get lent out - think they will get their "inflation" ? How quickly and how massively ?

Image b) that all the mal-investement collapses BEFORE their wished-for inflation takes off.

Today overlord yellen complained that housing was lackluster. I can't wait for her displeasure when there will be a general price collapse across wider swath of assets than just houses - one including her brother and sister's banking system.

Tallinn viies 21:58 GMT June 18, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
there is no danger point at the moment with oil.
all countries complaining about lack of inflation.
now they may see it soon if certain developments escalate.
they would all cheering about commodities inflation at the moment

Tallinn viies 21:51 GMT June 18, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
closed eurusd long at 1.3590.
wil re-enter at 1,3555

GVI Forex john 21:47 GMT June 18, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
JPY Pivots Basis latest session ranges...





dc CB 21:30 GMT June 18, 2014
New Record on S and P ??



OOPS
how did they let this pic out. Lordy lordy look at the crowd of traders on the Floor of the NYSE. MR and MRS Goober may be shocked.

Dear Mr and Mrs Goober, They all are on a bathroom break, you should see the lines.

dc CB 21:19 GMT June 18, 2014
What is the Danger Point for Oil?

Gammy sez:

It's just noise.

GVI Forex 20:46 GMT June 18, 2014
What is the Danger Point for Oil?
Reply   
6/18/2014 9:20:37 AM
TUK's Capital Economics sees $120/bbl as the "danger point" for the world economy if the fighting in Iraq escalates and prices keep climbing - press
- Capital says a strong and sustained recovery seems unlikely as long as oil is above $100
- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 20:40 GMT June 18, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
The FOMC announcement has so far resulted in US interest rates falling and US equities rising. The S&P500 is currently up 0.8%. Of much interest was the Federal Reserve's interest rate projection, with modest increases for 2015 and 2016 balanced by a 25bp reduction in the long-run rate to 3.75% (consistent with lowered long-term growth). Bond yields are more sensitive to the latter, perhaps explaining the lower yields.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 20:36 GMT June 18, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

THURSDAY 19 June 2014

  • CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • UK- Retail Sales- top economic metric
  • US- Weekly Jobless- most current read on jobs

FRIDAY 20 June 2014
  • CA- Retail Sales- dated but key data
  • CA- CPI- BOC policy metric

GVI Forex john 20:32 GMT June 18, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



June 18, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, June 19. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output. CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales. US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, Lead Indicators.

  • Far East: JP- Industrial Output.
  • Europe: CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales.
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, Lead Indicators. Natural Gas.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:14 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

PAR, nice one

PAR 20:09 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

As was to be expected.

dc CB 20:07 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

Having been told that there's no bubble in low quality credit, valuations are 'normal' in stocks, low volatility does not mean complacency, and there's no inflation (it's all noise you idiot); VIX was monkey-hammered to new cycle lows back to a 10-handle (lowest since Feb 2007). This smashing of vol led to a surging of "most shorted" stocks with the S&P hitting new all-time record highs.

It is clear - The Fed would rather clean up the total disaster than attempt to avert it...

Fed CruciVIXion Sends S&P To New Record Highs

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:00 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Goldilocks => lower yields, higher stocks

EURUSD 1.36 and GBPUSD 1.70 are USD indicators.

Paris ib 19:48 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

Janet had a choice today: stocks or the USD. She made her choice. Bernanke REDUX. What did he do? 17 rate hikes before he changed direction. And then it was too late.

Bernanke and the FED

dc CB 19:45 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY



GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT June 18, 2014 - My Profile
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY: Reply
Wow S&P and USDJPY continue to diverge.


during Market Hours keep this up on a screen

Jam to Highs on STox everytime sees this Jammed Lower by the Traders at the NYFED....into the Close 4:00PM

oh New Lows single digits next week?

Paris ib 19:44 GMT June 18, 2014
New Record on S and P ??

Record HIGH record CLOSE on S and P.

GVI Forex john 19:41 GMT June 18, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

Wow S&P and USDJPY continue to diverge. Quite extraordinary.

Tallinn viies 19:31 GMT June 18, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
FED didnt give markets they have been waiting for (bringing rate hike expectations closer).
so, if close today over 1,3590 then "let the stop hunt begin".
bought euros at 1,3554, target 1,3620 first.

Mtl JP 19:29 GMT June 18, 2014
New Record on S and P ??

ya... SNB & press conf tom

GVI Forex Blog 19:17 GMT June 18, 2014
No Major Fed Policy Changes. BOE Minutes Were in Line; Warn Markets on Policy Complacency
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Industrial Output. CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales. US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, Lead Indicators

The Fed decision and was much as expected with the central bank holding its Fed Funds target steady and tapering its asset purchase progranm by another $10bln to $35bln.

No Major Fed Policy Changes. BOE Minutes Were in Line; Warn Markets on Policy Complacency

Paris ib 19:16 GMT June 18, 2014
New Record on S and P ??

CB always something to look forward to ! :-)

GVI Forex john 19:12 GMT June 18, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


dc CB 19:10 GMT June 18, 2014
New Record on S and P ??

FMOC out of the way Quad Witching takes over.

Paris ib 19:07 GMT June 18, 2014
New Record on S and P ??
Reply   
Are we going to see a new high following Janet's failure to move aggressively to the hawkish side of things? Today?

Paris ib 19:05 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

The only thing that seems certain is that the taper will continue and that rates are on hold. I guess nothing to get excited about until the FED's Treasury buying is in fact over. When is that expected? This October??

dc CB 19:05 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC



giving the All Clear signal.

Mtl JP 19:04 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

janet says that new regs will create "safer and sounder" financial system...

bail-in provisions ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:01 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

No smoking gun, no Carney moment, no reason for markets to be upset

FX not sure what to do....

As for EURUSD seems set to close 1.35xx for 8th day in a row

Paris ib 18:56 GMT June 18, 2014
Zombie FED
Reply   
Taper is going to continue regardless of data. Leaving short term rates near zero. The USD is at risk here. All those calling for a softer bias based on recent weak data have been proved wrong. Similarly there is no sign that the FED is following the BoE into tighter policy. This is a Zombie FED.

Mtl JP 18:56 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

janet says:
- Unemployment rate does not capture slack
- Labor market slack is diminishing
- Hard to read much into slight dot moves
- One should read dot plot with caution

Sciacca FD 18:55 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen
Reply   
Man this is painful. Thank god for the world cup. I can't take anymore . I see bbrg not even televising this clueless GUESS FEST. Where do they get these people from.

PAR 18:49 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Récent inflation figures are Just noise.
Reminds me of Bernanke s ' A nationwide housingcrisis Is impossible '

dc CB 18:48 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Mtl JP 18:45 GMT
I wonder if anyone is is able to tell, from her body language or some other sign, when she is lying and when she is telling The Truth.

Gammy always tell the truth. Except in Horror Movies.

Mtl JP 18:46 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

but not so much usdyen and 10-yr paper

dc CB 18:45 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Mtl JP 18:35 GMT June 18, 2014 - My Profile
Agree or Disagree? FOMC: Reply
and that "inflation will slowly move toward target" and that "economy strong enough to help labor market"

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

and if that's not enough, we've got a couple of Wars waiting in the wings to "help the labor market"

Mtl JP 18:45 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

dc CB 18:16 janet says that "asset purchases not on a pre-set course" .

I wonder if anyone is is able to tell, from her body language or some other sign, when she is lying and when she is telling The Truth.

GVI Forex john 18:39 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
S&P and USDJPY on divergent paths.

GVI Forex john 18:37 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Market reading Yellen as dovish 10-yr last 2.599%, EURUSD rising and S&P is higher.

Mtl JP 18:35 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

and that "inflation will slowly move toward target" and that "economy strong enough to help labor market"

Mtl JP 18:32 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

janet says that "labor market conditions have improved"

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:29 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

All I am saying is she will watch her words.

london red 18:28 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

yes, nothing in statement from fed to feed dollar bulls. if yellen swings in line you have to look to stop run higher on euro + cable higher. intraday chart for euro does look like a dead cat though

Mtl JP 18:28 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Buy USDCHF
Entry: 8950-ish Target: 8995-ish Stop: few pipos undr 8950

conditional long order on approach to 8955
IF seen

GVI Forex john 18:27 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

You call it a "slip of the tongue".

I said at the time that she made the "mistake" of telling the truth. As of today I still feel that way and so do Fed Fund futures with 100%+ odds on a +25bp increase in a years time.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:23 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Yellen will be more careful this time after her last slip of the tongue.

dc CB 18:23 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

let's see if Yellen can keep her mouth shut. I'm sure she went thru a few "training" sessions.

PAR 18:20 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

We are not closed yet . Read my lips . Lol.

Mtl JP 18:17 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

PAR 18:12 at 1.3565 your "not much" is pretty good , seeing as euro bobbed + 25 and -15 pips. kudos bro

dc CB 18:16 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

with the FT's reveals this week that all CBs are now heavily invested in Stox, around the world, why would one of their own say anything to cause the losses.

New Highs thru the end of the Month/Quarter, with occasional sell-off to suck in shorts for the slaughter. Banker Bonuses and Bank Profits are the only concern. If people die because they run out of money then it's just "MORE FOR US"

Paris ib 18:16 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Looks that way.

PAR 18:15 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Result as predicted. Lower dollar and higher stocks . It is indeed that simple .

Oanda Reviews 18:15 GMT June 18, 2014 Reply   

A Broker Review for Oanda has just been added.

Paris ib 18:15 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

They're just going with: everything is under control. No change, no news. Recovery continues but the economy is on life support. And will remain on life support.

GVI Forex john 18:14 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

2.626% no Fed impact

PAR 18:12 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Yellen doing everything to devalue the dollar .

Mtl JP 18:11 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Fed lowered its forecast for “longer run” interest rates to 3.75% from closer to 4%

dc CB 18:08 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

massive Computer run Stop Hunt in 5, 10, 30 year futures.

woe is the TDAmeritrade/ThinkorSwim trader who was in the market with a stop

Paris ib 18:07 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

3 year bond yields about to crack 1%.

Mtl JP 18:06 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

back to challenging 2.65%

dc CB 18:06 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

if the Fed Spoke the Truth.

with a 2+% CPI...rates will remain Negative for the forseeable future.

Paris ib 18:04 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

They're looking at a modest pick up in inflation and GDP growth and a continued fall in unemployment. Why bother with projections like that?

ottawa ottawa 18:03 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

here we go

GVI Forex john 18:00 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Reply   
U.S. Fed Policy Decision



NEWS ALERT

Fed Funds: Steady @ 0.25%
Asset Purchases: -$10bln to $35.0/mo

RELEASE: Policy Statement


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex 17:59 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

2.622%

GVI Forex john 17:56 GMT June 18, 2014
Federal Reserve Press Conference
Reply   
Yellen @ 18:30 GMT

Live Webcast

Mtl JP 17:51 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

for reference: eurodlr 1.3575
lets see what is "not much"

dc CB 17:45 GMT June 18, 2014
Feeding the HFTs Senate Hearings
Reply   
As NYTimes reports,
TD Ameritrade, a brokerage firm that handles vast numbers of stock trades for average investors, promises to execute those orders on the best possible terms.
But in practice, TD Ameritrade routes a large number of the customer orders to the exchanges that pay it the most, Steven Quirk, an executive at the firm, said at a Senate hearing on Tuesday.

Mr. Levin pointed to different data from the first quarter of this year that showed that TD Ameritrade routed its nonmarketable orders to two markets that paid the highest rebates available.
“So, again, your subjective judgment as to which market provided best execution for tens of millions of customer orders virtually always led you to route orders to the markets that paid you the most?” Mr. Levin asked.

“No, not always led us...” Mr. Quirk began.

“I said ‘virtually always,’ ” Mr. Levin responded.

After a short pause, Mr. Quirk said, “Virtually, yeah.”

TD Ameritrade Admits "Virtually Always" Sells Retail Orders To HFTs

Paris ib 17:45 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

The FED has to fake the 'everything is under control' scenario. So the taper continues as planned, a few noises about rate hikes coming as the economy accelerates... yada, yada, yada. I doubt this will do much for the USD.

ottawa ottawa 17:33 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

forgot Spx -22

ottawa ottawa 17:31 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

taper 10 bill, euro to 1.3480, gbp to 1.6845...my estimate, or hope..hahahah

PAR 17:23 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen
Reply   
Stocks moving higher , dollar moving lower Yellen happy .
Typical Fed meeting result . A Few Us banks probably got a copy of statement . Are we cynical ?

GVI Forex john 17:07 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Steady as she goes into the Fed...

10-yr 2.630% basically unchanged on the day, so no obvious bias.

GVI Forex john 17:04 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

How can he not realize that the consumer is not going to start to spend until jobs are created. I mean real full-time jobs. The administration's economic stimulus program is "hope".

PAR 16:55 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

We go back to 2004 . I have no money, I have nothing . I get a big loan and buy a big home .

Building constuctor makes money , real estate agent makes money , Insurance agent makes money, bank makes money and I forget a lot of other people .

Everybody happy without real money. Obama saying economy doing real well . Happy , happy

Paris ib 16:53 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Economic projections give one result when the economy is CLOSED and entirely another when an economy is open to international trade AND manufacturing has moved overseas. Apple makes a lot of money but it manufacturers overseas and has yet to repatriate profits held abroad.

This sort of thing throws a few spanners in the works of classical economics.

Paris ib 16:49 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Not when the money ends up overseas because it gets spent on exports. Then domestic debt means debt and money for exporters, like China for example.

PAR 16:47 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Consumers can take on a lot of debt which stimulates the Us economy as seen in USA till 2008.
Debt from one person Is money for other people.

Perth Wtr 16:29 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Can the consumers print money? So the answer is no Liesman

PAR 16:12 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

The 1% probably can . Think Corzine and other guys with political connections .

Paris ib 16:11 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Can u even believe that NAME? Lies man. Good grief.

london red 16:08 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

can consumers go to fed for bale out if they go under? wonder if liesman will underwrite

Paris ib 16:04 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Floundering around looking for a solution. Next up: Yellen. I doubt the poor woman even understands 'the problem'.

The U.S. 'problem': the U.S. has been spending other people's money since Nixon. And capital inflows have now stopped, in fact money is now LEAVING the U.S., but you'll never hear that from any pundit out there. Without capital inflows the U.S. economy heads south.

Paris ib 16:00 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

You gotta love these guys for entertainment value alone. Wasn't there someone else suggesting that 'the problem' is that there is not enough war? What we need is more war and more debt. Hang on a minute.... we are getting that thanks to the GOVERNMENT. hahahahahahhahahah love it

Mtl JP 15:48 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

CNBC's Liesman Thinks Consumers Need More Debt

the senior CNBC correspondent thinks that "the problem is that consumers are not taking on enough debt" and that "historically the U.S. economy has been built on consumer credit"

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:13 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Note 1.3586 as per my video and post - not touched

london red 15:06 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

yes JM, taking that in account of course. if prempting, often a trade 15-60 minutes before on a blip or dip helps then a stop of 10-15 points from market normally covers you when it normal headline data. but not something id recommend later, too many variables from fomc..

GVI Forex john 15:02 GMT June 18, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


  • Markets have a mixed risk posture late in Europe. Political  worries persist. All await the Fed.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are now lower. Yields on the periphery are mostly higher.
  • U.K. yields are lower. Many see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend. 
  • U.S. yields are easier. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.63%, -2 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly lower in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed to lower. U.S. shares are softer.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


NY JM 15:02 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Issue with a tight stop is you can get stopped on spread widening on a key event like the fomc even if real market does not trade there.

GVI Forex john 14:52 GMT June 18, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.631% +1 bp unch from earlier.

GVI Forex Blog 14:43 GMT June 18, 2014 Reply   
June 18, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, June 19. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output. CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail

GVI Forex Data Outlook for June 19, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:40 GMT June 18, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


June 18, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, June 19. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output. CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales. US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, Lead Indicators.

  • Far East: JP- Industrial Output.
  • Europe: CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales.
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, Lead Indicators. Natural Gas.


london red 14:40 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

JM, you have to have them being more hawkish and think they will do enough for dollar to rally, once the dust settles, just not sure it will be clearcut enough to allow for an entry pre fomc with a tight stop given growth estimates are likely to come down. that would be my base view and in that case its probably going to have the market moving one way, failing to followthru, then returning to pre fomc, then heading the other direction and once a new high/low is done in that direction it should carry on that direction.
the less ambiguity then less chance of a false first move. but not sure that they are going to be overly hawkish as they have had many chances and the glass is always half empty, while an overly dovish slant would have them lose credibilty imo. you have to acknowledge the numbers.

HK [email protected] 14:39 GMT June 18, 2014
Grab it now!!!
Reply   

Investors who have invested from 100 million roubles (approximately $2.8 billion) in the equity capitals of Russian legal entities can apply for Russian citizenship

GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT June 18, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -0.579 vs. -2.000 exp vs. -3.400 prev.
Gasoline: +0.785 vs. +0.500 exp vs. -0.210 prev.
Distillates: +0.435 vs. -1.000 exp vs. +2.000 prev.
Cap/Util: 87.1% vs. 88.8% exp vs. 90.80% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 14:28 GMT June 18, 2014
NEW Heat MAP EUR Crosses
Reply   
EUR Crosses generally better today...





HK [email protected] 14:25 GMT June 18, 2014
LOCOLOCO maybe to 0.8020
Reply   
EUR/GBP
HK [email protected] 13:33 GMT 06/18/2014


Strong up thrust locomotive in action.

Worth observation!

NY JM 14:24 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Red, so best strategy is flat into FOMC?

HK [email protected] 14:23 GMT June 18, 2014
USD/CHF
Reply   


Chomp/chomp to 0.8950, strong support let's see.

london red 14:21 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

pce looking like +0.2 for may and possibly 1.6 for year. so its likely we will see 2% before the end of the year. so when do they act? 1.6? 1.7? 1.8? when it takes time for effects to be seen.
eurusd is firm due to unwinding of eurgbp, it has been happening since the start of the week and todays mpc minutes have added fuel to the fire. a fair bit of option interest above 8000. this one has further to go. still planning the short higher up but will strike off the 8035 and start at the 8050/55 unless i can manage closer to 8064.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:20 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

EURUSD resistance still at yesterday's 1.3586 high, which is weithin 1.3578-1.3601

1.3578 = 10 day mva
1.3601 = 20 day mva

GVI Forex john 14:11 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Into Fed Decision Fed targets PCE but watches CPI...

NY JM 14:08 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

This should have been a day where USD longs were protected pre-FOMC but EURUSD (out of firmer EUR crosses) not cooperating.

Very odd and can be undone with one phrase later on.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:53 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

But the fed's focus is on PCE as its inflation gauge more than CPI.

Otherwise, EURUSD still creeping higher out of its crosses... doesn't make sense if expectations are for a less dovish (as opposed to hawkish) FOMC statement???

GVI Forex john 13:48 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Worth noting that July 2015 Fed Funds futures show 100% odds for a 25bp rate hike by then and 15% odds for an additional 25bp increase. Markets are already tightening for the Fed. Its important that you can actually trade (buy or sell) at thee prices.

london red 13:38 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

john, they tolerated it because they cut rates to zero and did qe. they acted to combat deflation/falling inflation and waited for the result. not sure they can really afford to wait and see, allowing inflation to creep higher, while still maintaining the plan which was put in place to avoid deflation. i see what you are saying and i have heard it before, but not sure you can play that hand without saying you are not confident in the strength of the economy. and you really need to have an argument for inflation coming down. isis/iraq will not help in this respect and i doubt they could have foreseen such a driver for inflation at the start of the year.

GVI Forex john 13:36 GMT June 18, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

No but I am watching how the markets are trading INTO the Fed, provides a feel for sentiment.

Paris ib 13:34 GMT June 18, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

John do you really think a one basis point move in the U.S. 10 year bond yield is relevant to the movement in the USD ?

HK [email protected] 13:33 GMT June 18, 2014
EUR/GBP
Reply   


Strong up thrust locomotive in action.

Worth observation!

GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT June 18, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.631% -1bp

Livingston nh 13:27 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Stox should do okay w/ 2% inflation -- But w/ rates "pinned" down by the Fed FI might not be too happy if inflation exceeds 10 yr yield (as it now does on a current basis, not y/y)

Inflation feeds on itself -- it is a major cause of Fed panic attax

SaaR KaL 13:15 GMT June 18, 2014
Day's Trades

EURGBP Shorts from 0.7070 and above should do fine IMO

SaaR KaL 13:13 GMT June 18, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Still bearish EURUSD

Silver shorts look fine
FTSE Longs are great

prague mark 13:10 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3564 Target: 1.34 Stop: 1.3574

shorted

GVI Forex john 13:04 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC

I believe someone in the Fed recently said that 2.0% is a LT target. Liesman saying nothing new.

There is also a chance the Fed COULD speed up the pace of tapering to 15bln per meeting and get it done in three meetings.

I have no opinion if they will do this.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:04 GMT June 18, 2014
Why Forex Trading is Like World Cup Soccer

As per my video, EURUSD pressing against the unconfirmed trendline around 1.3570

HK [email protected] 12:51 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Current Account 1Q14 (USD bln)
Reply   


BAAAAAAD

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:47 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? FOMC
Reply   
Watching CNBC and Lieiman made this point:

Yellen could say we tolerated inflation below 2% and we can now tolerate a blip above.

Any thoughts on how this might play in the market?

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT June 18, 2014
U.S. Current Account 1Q14 (USD bln)
Reply   



ALERT
-111.2 vs. -96.6 exp. vs. -81.1 (r -87.3) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Tallinn viies 12:16 GMT June 18, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
nordic bank preview:
FOMC preview:
• A further USD 10bn tapering of the Fed’s QE programme should not surprise anybody.
• The key focus will be on the revised projections for the economy and especially the fed funds rate (the so-called dot chart/plot).
• We expect that the median FOMC projections for the fed funds rate by end-2015 and end-2016 will be lifted a touch higher.
• At the same time, however, the rate projections in the “longer run” might be lowered a little, overall indicating an earlier first rate hike but subsequently a slower pace of normalisation.
• We expect the FOMC to lower its unemployment forecast and lift its inflation projection for 2014, while the 2014 GDP growth forecast will be lowered.
• Overall, we expect a hawkish interpretation in markets and hence higher rates and a stronger USD.
• The FOMC statement will be released at 20:00 CET and Yellen’s second post-meeting press conference as Fed chairman starts at 20:30.

PAR 11:59 GMT June 18, 2014
Central Banks
Reply   
ECB meeting > Euro goes down
BOE meeting > GBP goes down
BOJ meeting > Yen goes down
Fed meeting > DLR goes ????

Can trading be so simple ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:31 GMT June 18, 2014
Why Forex Trading is Like World Cup Soccer



Daily Trading Outlook Video Update

Why Forex Trading is Like World Cup Soccer.

Pre-FOMC update

Mtl JP 11:28 GMT June 18, 2014
Why Forex Trading is Like World Cup Soccer

Jay the common theme is corruption, mendacity and favoritism

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:06 GMT June 18, 2014
Why Forex Trading is Like World Cup Soccer
Reply   
Read my latest article and then send me your thoughts on what you would like to add to it.

Why Forex Trading is Like World Cup Soccer

Mtl JP 11:02 GMT June 18, 2014
Central Banks

Yellen self-defined three mandates for her FED, adding protecting the banking system from collapse.

If she ll be hawkish she will very likely huff n puff about all sorts of challenges and possible headwinds as counterbalance in an effort not to collapse housing prices and cause another mortgage fiasco for her brethren in the banking system

Mtl JP 10:46 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

red.. wanna know why nothing works as planned by the overlords ?

The Lack of Major Wars May Be Hurting Economic Growth - in no less of an establishment trumpet rag than the NYT

PAR 10:46 GMT June 18, 2014
Central Banks
Reply   
Everybody looking for hawkish BOE , look at the pound .
Dont expect Yellen to be hawkish.

Paris ib 10:44 GMT June 18, 2014
Japan

JP listen they got USD/JPY up from 80. And held it above 100. That is an achievement.

Mtl JP 10:43 GMT June 18, 2014
Japan

nothing seems to work for numbnuts Abe as advertised

maybe one (or all) of his 3 arrows will drill him in his donkey next

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:39 GMT June 18, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EURUSD catching a bid out of EURGBP rising back to .80, GBPUSD lower after hitting a wall at 1.70

but FOMC roulette should keep it below 1.3586 unless market smells stops

GVI Forex john 10:36 GMT June 18, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   
Several people reported errors in our Free Forex Database today. The problem was some data were corrupted when they were loaded last night. The bad data have been isolated and fixed.

Thank for reporting the problem. It should be fine now.

john

GVI Forex Blog 10:24 GMT June 18, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The BOE minutes were the highlight in an otherwise quiet FX market. The minutes were again unanimous (9-0) in keeping both interest rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) steady. The GBP/USD briefly tested above 1.70 as the BOE noted that the low probability markets placed on 2014 rate hike was somewhat 'surprising' but its gave back the initial gains as the comments were in-line with Gov carney's Mansion House address from last week.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: No surprises in BOE minutes; Iraq's Baiji refinery falls into ISIS militants hands

Paris ib 10:20 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

Frankly I expect hawkish. The BoJ and the ECB have both done their bit to promote USD bullishness, now it's time for the FED. I don't expect this to have a long term impact on the USD. Long term capital inflows into USDs have become OUTFLOWS and I don't think Janet or anyone else can turn that around. So a hawkish Janet can only be expected to encourage short term speculators. The impact will be short lived. The impact on stocks and bonds could be more meaningful. Either way I am planning to steer clear until it's done and dusted.

Mtl JP 10:14 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

she ll be interesting only if she tapers (or turns around) 15 billion or some such similar thing out of the expectations box

PAR 10:11 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

Yellen has never and will never be hawkish .She got her job because she is a dove .

london red 09:58 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

can the fed be endlessly paralysed by externals Chris, whether foreign or domestic? for me thats the decision between going long or short usd pre data or waiting. oil/gas prices have started to rise again, thats only going to push transport costs higher and that eventually pushes everything higher. so they are running out of time to stay ahead of the inflation curve.
my view since monday has altered slightly. i mentioned i was looking to sell into mpc and hold into fed but have since decided to cover. yes eurgbp looks ready for a run higher and yes the minutes werent that hawkish but the fomc looks set to buffet the dollar both ways before setting on a direction because while i expect more hawkish text and acknowledgement of improvement in underlying data and inflation, they may reduce growth forecasts, which is as good an excuse to squeeze the market as any. id quite possibly need a stop above the days high and thus giving up half a penny gains if triggered. so the decision was made. if not for the risk of two way trade i would keep the short but gains should be booked over and ahead of hunches. if the fomc pans out as outlined above, then the trade can be repeated on the blip higher with a stop a little over 17043, euro stop over 13610. just as a daytrade to close pre fomc i might consider a cable long at 16920/25 stop under the fig.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:56 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

It is the Fed's forecasts that matter and not those from the IMF

Paris ib 09:55 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen

It's going to be an interesting press conference, that's for sure. Yellen has to make a choice: stocks or the USD. If she goes for stocks, then it's dovish and concentrating on the weakness in the statistics. If she goes for the USD then she'll talk inflation, leading indicators and growth. And that will be hawkish.

I don't think we can have a neutral FOMC reaction today.

PAR 09:49 GMT June 18, 2014
Yellen
Reply   
Yellen could be more dovish at today's press conference .
Us economic growth has been downgraded no improvement is in sight .

London Chris 09:25 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

Okay is a typo and it should say play the reaction.

London Chris 09:23 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

Red are you suggesting long usd positions into the FOMC or will you be flat and okay the reaction?

Will Iraq and rising oil prices influence the FOMC into being more cautious or will it ignore?

GVI Forex Blog 09:17 GMT June 18, 2014
Focus on Fed Wednesday. BOE Minutes in Line. Warn Markets on Policy Complacency
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Current Account, Fed Decision + Press conference

The main focus today is the Fed decision and, perhaps more importantly, the press conference afterwards by Janet Yellen. While we do not expect any policy changes, "forward guidance" is now a part of the policy decision for many central banks.

Focus on Fed Wednesday. BOE Minutes in Line. Warn Markets on Policy Complacency

GVI Forex john 09:13 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

So clearly Carney's comments trump the Minutes.

GVI Forex john 09:11 GMT June 18, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • Markets have a mixed risk-on posture early in Europe. Political  worries persist.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are barely changed. Yields on the periphery are lower.
  • U.K. yields are lower. Many see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend. 
  • U.S. yields are easier. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.64%, -1 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly lower in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are up slightly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Paris ib 09:11 GMT June 18, 2014
Iraq - The Partition Plan
Reply   
"U.S. Treasury Secretary says US are conducting drone missions over Iraq at the government's request"

That would be the U.S. imposed puppet government. Meanwhile Thierry Meyssan suggests that the current unrest, far from being a surprise, is merely part of Washington's long held plan to divide Iraq into three separate zones, with the aim of better controlling the region and plundering and/or controlling the resources there. So this little surge in activity (and the media fest we are suddenly being bombarded with) is likely to continue until the partition of Iraq has been achieved.

This would explain the cuddly Boris Johnson's suggestion that the 'allies' need to 'intervene' in Iraq AGAIN. A suggestion made while at the same time going with the widely held view that Tony Blair is bonkers (well dah). The media assault to soften up public opinion. The supplying of arms to Syrian 'rebels' who are now invading Iraq.

So any trading positions need to assume increased unrest and violence in the Middle East. Oil? Up? Inflation? Up? Government spending / deficits ? Up on increased military spending. The FED? More hawkish than expected? The USD? No idea quite frankly.

Washington's Project to Partition Iraq Relaunched

london red 09:08 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

possibily but it was a marked change of tone from his last comments. the minutes themselves arent that hawkish certainly if you consider the run of data this year. its worth noting that at the time inflation and wages growth were ticking up and that might have caused a few more to speak of more balance. so yesterdays fall in inflation has taken the edge of the data for sterling as the members stated rate increases will be gradual while inflation benign.

GVI Forex 09:02 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

red- yes I know. I was wondering if Carney had been pre-warning about the minutes?

london red 08:51 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

john, these minutes came before carney, now we have a hike priced in nov/dec this year. for cable we have now beaten yest range on both sides, meaning theres a good move to come off the fomc. logically they should be more hawkish given the data. the only reason they could shy away from this would be in an effort to manage the bond decline. inflation is rising, growth has improved (although maybe not to the 3+ currently forecast), so the case for continuing with rates at all time lows is no longer present.
a failure to acknowledge the data will be a green light to sell the dollat vs gbp, euro will have bottomed and yen goes to test the recent lows. but this should be an unlikely scenario, they ought to be more hawkish if data alone is the consideration. here youd look for sub 13474 yen to 102.76/103 cable to 16880.

GVI Forex john 08:39 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

Interesting comment on market outlook echoes recent comment by Carney. Suggests to ne that BOE is worried that markets are too complacent about no policy changes.

london red 08:38 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

9-0 but mixed comments support at 60 and 44, below there tinhat time for bulls but you wonder how far it can go ahead of fomc

GVI Forex 08:34 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

BOE: Premature Rate Rise Could Lead To "Considerable Costs" In Lost Output
BOE: All Agreed On Need To See More Evidence Of Reduction In Slack Before Rate Rise
BOE: MPC Members "Surprised" By Low Probability Attached By Investors To 2014 Rate Move

GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT June 18, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Rates:Tighten = 0 Unchanged =9 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0
Bank of England





TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 08:00 GMT June 18, 2014
uk/gbp
Reply   
uk mpc minutes up soon. cable getting supported on talk of 8:1 7:2 split decision. Logically, there isnt probably the need to raise rates now, although i suppose there could have been a stronger argument a month ago when inflation and wages growth where a bit higher than present. One or two members may want there feelings of diminishing slack to be known to the market, hence the small possibility of a split decision, but without knowing the inner workings and politics of the mpc, its difficult to approach this subject with any conviction. All i will say is that there is certainly someone on top of cable this morning, which in itself may be a clue.

Kaunas DP 06:45 GMT June 18, 2014
longed
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3545 Target: 1.3666 Stop: 1.35

now

Hong Kong AceTrader 06:39 GMT June 18, 2014
AceTrader Jun 18: Daily Market Outlook om Asian Exotic USD/SGD
Reply   

DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2543

18 Jun 2014 04:24GMT

Y'day's rally above 1.2515 (now sup) to 1.2542 con
firms early decline from 1.2587 has ended at 1.2471 n
upside bias remains for gain to 1.2570 later.

Raise long entry for this move n only below 1.24
93/95 would risk possible weakness twd 1.2471 later.


STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2525

OBJECTIVE : 1.2575

STOP-LOSS : 1.2495

RES : 1.2542/1.2568/1.2587

SUP : 1.2493/1.2471/1.2451

GVI Forex Blog 05:36 GMT June 18, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA MAY NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 15 OF 70 CITIES V 44 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 69 OF 70 CITIES V 69 PRIOR - (SL) SRI LANKA LEAVES REVERSE REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.00%; LEAVES REPUR

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Retreat in China property prices accelerates - Source TradeTheNews.com

nw kw 04:34 GMT June 18, 2014
will there be an IPO???

The Fed is expected to taper its asset purchase program by $10 billion to $35 billion and affirm its stance to hold rates at record lows for a considerable period.

GVI Forex Blog 04:03 GMT June 18, 2014 Reply   
Dow (16808) is consolidating for now and may be ranged for sometime with near term

Morning Briefing : 18-Jun-2014 -0402 GMT

dc CB 02:30 GMT June 18, 2014
will there be an IPO???
Reply   
FT reports:
It is not a corporation and does not have shareholders, but the military success and brutality of the jihadi group surging through Iraq have been recorded with the level of precision often reserved for company accounts.

Since 2012 the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, (known as Isis) has issued annual reports, outlining in numerical and geographical detail its operations – the number of bombings, assassinations, checkpoints, suicide missions, cities taken over and even “apostates” converted to the Isis cause.

Selling terror: how Isis details its brutality

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:27 GMT June 18, 2014
AceTrader Jun 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Jun 2014 01:58GMT

USD/JPY - ... The greenback maintained a firm undertone in Tokyo morning after y'day's cross-inspired rebound to 102.24 due to the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The rise in Japanese equities (Nikkei-225 index rose by 65 points to 15041) is likely to support the pair. Bids are now located at 102.05-00 n more at 101.90 with stops only seen below 101.80 n 101.60. Offers are now tipped at 102.30-40 n further out at 102.55-60.

According to the minutes of the May 20-21 board meeting released earlier today, most board members said the Bank of Japan will check risks and make adjustment as needed.

Below are minutes from the BOJ :

members expressed the view that it was appropriate for BOJ to continue to steadily pursue QQE, as such easing had been exerting its intended effects;
members shared recognition QQE effects continued to firmly take hold;
members shared the recognition that, in a situation where nominal interest rates had been stable, real interest rates were declining on the back of a rise in inflation expectations;
gov't rep. said supply-side constraints had surfaced in the form of labor shortages, due to the current sustained economic recovery; members shared view global markets had been calm on whole though some nervousness observed reflecting geopolitical risks such as Ukraine;
some members said recent U.S., European long-term rate falls may reflect market awareness of weaker outlook for medium- to long-term economic growth;
members shared view overseas economies, mainly advanced economies, would recover moderately;
members concurred that growth momentum in the ASEAN countries remained weak.


Data to be released on Wednesday:

New Zealand current account, Japan trade balance, exports, imports, BoJ meeting minutes, China house prices, U.K. BoE meeting minutes, BoE MPC vote outcome, Switzerland ZEW investor sentiment, Canada wholesale trade, U.S. current account, FOMC rate decision, QE total.

GVI Forex Blog 00:38 GMT June 18, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar firmer against many of its major counterparts

* Upside inflation surprise helps lift demand for USD

* All eyes on Fed meeting outcome and Yellen's press conferen

FOREX-Dollar underpinned by inflation data, eyes on Fed

Brock Thor 00:17 GMT June 18, 2014
Eur/Jpy
Reply   
Sold this pair to 136.25 .
Will close at signs of weakness on the way south.
Tight stop.

Brock Thor 00:11 GMT June 18, 2014
GBP/JPY
Reply   
Long again going for that 180.

 




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