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Forex Forum Archive for 06/24/2014

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HK [email protected] 23:15 GMT June 24, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



Bitch Hillary's small problem.
...................................................................................
Hillary Clinton is known as a champion of women and girls, but one woman who says she was raped as a 12-year-old in Arkansas doesn’t think Hillary deserves that honor. This woman says Hillary smeared her and used dishonest tactics to successfully get her attacker off with a light sentence — even though, she claims, Clinton knew he was guilty.

The victim in the 1975 sexual abuse case that became Clinton’s first criminal defense case as a 27-year-old lawyer has only spoken to the media once since her attack, a contested, short interaction with a reporter in 2008, during Clinton’s last presidential campaign run. Now 52, she wants to speak out after hearing Clinton talk about her case on newly discovered audio recordings from the 1980s, unearthed by the Washington Free Beacon[*] and made public this week.

Quick background, for people who don’t know: twelve year old was raped in Arkansas. At the 1975 trial, Hillary Clinton (defense attorney) made various claims about the victim, played a bunch of procedural games with the physical evidence, and managed to get her client a plea on a lesser charge that ended up with him in jail for a year, with two months time served. The victim? …Had and has a hard life.

dc CB 21:50 GMT June 24, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Stocks suddenly selling off?

The First Daughter puts Foot in Mouth.

The retake of the Throne by the Clinton Clan gets deeper in doubt, as the "I'm just a regular perrrrrson, I FEEL YOUR PAIN (bite lower lip)..

How will Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, et al, return to power if Hillary ain't gonna make it back to the WH?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++



“I will just always work harder (than anybody else) and hopefully perform better,” said Clinton, who along with former banker husband Marc Mezvinsky, purchased a $10.5-million Gramercy Park apartment in 2013. “And hopefully, over time, I preempt and erase whatever expectations people have of me not having a good work ethic, or not being smart, or not being motivated.

Chelsea Clinton's Heartfelt Confession: "I Was Curious If I Could Care About Money And I Couldn't

syd sf 21:16 GMT June 24, 2014
morning

just to explain it a bit better

in gbpusd it has hold over shorts from 30 area yesterday that it wants to cover @75-78 - but the short term model says sell @88-90 - doesn't have t/p or s/l on that part of it yet.

that prob makes bit more sense to someone reading my previous post.

syd sf 21:13 GMT June 24, 2014
morning
Reply   
see quite a few conflicting time frames

eurusd
a. is bidding 01 offering 15
b is selling 07/08 bidding 92-93

eurcad - selling @22/23

gbpusd selling 88/90 and bids 75-78

gold = short

eur/aud stops @ 1.4555

the reason it is all over the place is the various time frames and objectives as well as hold over positions are looking to deal this morning.

GVI Forex john 21:01 GMT June 24, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



June 24, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, June 25. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- Durable Goods, GDP, SVC PMI, 5-yr Auction

  • Far East: No Major data.
  • Europe: GB- Distributive Trades Survey.
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Durable Goods, GDP, SVC PMI, Weekly Crude, 5-yr Auction.


GVI Forex john 20:58 GMT June 24, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
WEDNESDAY JUNE 24, 2014
US Dur Goods May - Production Statistic
US D/G ex-trans
US GDP 1Q14r - GDP revision
TRY TRY 5-yr
THURSDAY JUNE 24, 2014
JP Unemployed Mar
JP Retail Sales yy Apr
US Initial Claims - Most current read on Jobs
US Cont Claims
US PCE defl y - Primary Fed Inflation Measure
US Per Inc May  Wage levels
TRY TRY 7-yr
FRIDAY JUNE 24, 2014
JP Core CPI May  - BOJ Inflation Target
JP CPI
CH KOF Ind - Swiss Sentiment Index
GB GDP 1Q14 QQ - UK GDP Revision
GB GDP 1Q14 YY
US U Mich final Closely followed

GVI Forex Blog 20:39 GMT June 24, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
Sentiment reversed overnight. Initial optimism fueled by some strong US data (home sales, consumer confidence) took the S&P500 to a fresh record high. However geopolitical concerns later in the NY session helped it reverse to -0.3% currently. Syrian warplanes attacked Iraq and a Ukraine helicopter was shot down. Also noted was a 7% fall in Dubai's stock index, for a total of 28% since mid-May.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 20:36 GMT June 24, 2014
Weekly US API Data
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil:+4.000 vs. +1.000 exp vs. -0.579 prev.
Gasoline: +2.200 vs. -1.000 exp vs. +0.785 prev.
Distillates: -0.225 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +0.35 prev.
Cap/Util: 88.6% vs. n/a exp vs. 87.1% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 20:11 GMT June 24, 2014
BOE Governor Carney

nh personally I can hardly wait for housing prices to rise some more. preferably massively and rapidly. It makes politicians and various "policy makers" nervous.

By the same token, I can not say that I would not welcome a new mass housing prices collapse.

Livingston nh 20:00 GMT June 24, 2014
BOE Governor Carney

JP - if you think BoE is going ahead of the Fed? if you think the MPC cares not for the EUR/GBP? if you really believe that house prices in London are more important than an election?

gud luck to ya !!

GVI Forex john 19:56 GMT June 24, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


GVI Forex john 19:51 GMT June 24, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Livingston nh 19:39 GMT June 24, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

CNBC had folks on lunchtime talking about the old "wall of worry" --- the l'il pig song about the big bad wolf // nobody afraid until the wolf shows up

Mtl JP 19:38 GMT June 24, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I see Gold at 1318-ish.. off about 2.5 bux actually

GVI Forex john 19:22 GMT June 24, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Stocks suddenly selling off. I'm hearing something vague about Iraq.

Gold up $7

10-yr 2.583%

Mtl JP 19:14 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

forgot Gold... it is UP. Almost 3 bux

Mtl JP 19:12 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

market is in a funny mood: 10yr is climbing in price, yield is coming down and so stocks are diving...

GVI Forex 19:08 GMT June 24, 2014
The FED

6/24/2014 2:56:08 PM
(US) Fed's Dudley: Market expectations for a mid-2015 rate hike seems to be reasonable; unemployment can decline further before inflation becomes a problem
- Q&A- Rate moves will depend on the Fed's outlook for the economy.
- Very appropriate to pursue accommodative monetary policy.
- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 18:50 GMT June 24, 2014
U.S. Conference Board Survey and New Homes Sales Beat Estimates. June German IFO Survey Misses
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Durable Goods, GDP, SVC PMI, 5-yr Auction

The U.S. saw strong Conference Board Survey data and strong May New Homes Sales data, but the USD was unresponsive to the data.

U.S. Conference Board Survey and New Homes Sales Beat Estimates. June German IFO Survey Misses

Mtl JP 18:48 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

Peter Schiff points out that "mutual fund holdings of long term government and corporate debt have swelled to more $7 trillion as of the end of 2013, a whopping 109% increase from 2008 levels."

Paris ib 18:42 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

No not today, but that's the direction.

Chicago Aga 18:41 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Paris IB, I don't think you see it today.

Mtl JP 18:29 GMT June 24, 2014
The FED

SAN JUAN (Reuters) - New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley warned Puerto Rico about its growing debt load and questioned if the island can sustain its high level of borrowing in the future in remarks prepared for delivery on Tuesday. .../..
-
zzzzz

Paris ib 18:09 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

NY JM 18:04 - don't worry we're going back there.

NY JM 18:04 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Stocks slip into the red and markets get spooked.

if you blinked you missed the high (1.3618) so have to stay alert.

Livingston nh 17:59 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

ok

Paris ib 17:59 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

nh - whatever. They can try to extend their duration by issuing more 30 year bonds but a) the cost is beyond them - too expensive (debt risks becoming explosive as increased funding costs add to the stock of debt) and b) there are not enough takers. They are stuck with short term funding which means that the United States is uniquely vulnerable. Compare, for example, the duration of United States funding and the average duration of the funding of the UK government - it makes for a shocking contrast.

dc CB 17:58 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

basically shows the risk of running an auction while STOX are hitting new highs. witness how the NDX took off.

Adjustments to the Fear Factor will be made going into the 5year.
Booooonus delayed til Fri/Mon.

PS need to smack gold

Livingston nh 17:55 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

ib - i'd be putting everything out long term 'cause the s/t is irrelevant -- but you are way off base because you're looking for a fast ball and not the curve

Paris ib 17:49 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

The total cost is rising, absolutely. They can hide out in the 3 to 6 months area, but that just means they have a roll over schedule from h.ell (which they DO !!). When I look at this I pay particular attention to the 2 to 3 year area (yields have been rising there for some time). The U.S. can't really afford to fund itself out in the 10 to 30 year area (too expensive). So it's stuck with short duration debt. Which is scary. The average duration of debt is something like 5 years but the public held debt duration is more like the 2 - 3 year area. So that's what I watch. That's where the U.S. government is really funding itself. No-one really cares what the 10 to 30 year area is doing, that's just where the FED plays. And the short end is a joke. Imagine a first world government actually attempting to roll its debt every 3 months or so.

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:41 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

JM// EUR bottom for the month already made, looking for a top level of 13911/13871/13832 in coming days/weeks... then we look for 13424/13383/13345.

Failure at 13911 means we shift to monthly charts...

Trend is still down.

Livingston nh 17:26 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

ib - check to see if the total cost is rising? is the rollover more or less expensive?

and NEVER forget the monetary regime has changed

GVI Forex john 17:16 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

July 2015 Fed Funds futures (one year away) continue to run 100%+ odds for a +25bp rate hike by that time.

Paris ib 17:13 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

What me, worry? Don't worry, be happy. These days though it's a room without a roof.... The level of U.S. Government debt keeps rising, the amount of paper that needs to be rolled this year is huge, the dependence on foreign holders of U.S. debt is off the charts, the cost of funding that enormous debt KEEPS rising... no-one can afford to be too negative on this market in case it implodes. I think you guys have a problem.

Livingston nh 17:09 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

Not so much of a surprise - last few have had tails - who took what at what level? // keep in mind 2 yrs is one yr more than the beginning of hikes (mkt expectation)

dc CB 17:07 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

of the 30 bil, the Primary Dealers took more than half
$15,943,032,500

Paris ib 17:06 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction

That is a pretty shocking result.

GVI Forex john 17:04 GMT June 24, 2014
2-yr Auction
Reply   
0.511%
bid-to-cover
3.23 vs. 3.52

Livingston nh 16:29 GMT June 24, 2014
The FED

There are times (see last few meetings of Miller v. Volcker) when the ground shifts -- most of the folks on the BoG are "go along get along" types (lemmings) -- we haven't had factions on FOMC for quite a while // watch Dudley if he shifts a bit or if Fischer speaks up -- inflation (everything else is a detail) is the absolute guiding star because of the bond market

The Chairman is only as good as the quality of the opposition

GVI Forex john 16:22 GMT June 24, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

2-yr auction at the top of the hour. Its to early now but you will see the serious chance of a policy tightening on the 2-yr first.

GVI Forex john 16:19 GMT June 24, 2014
The FED

In a word NO.

The Fed hawks are fringe players. They get a lot of press because they take the minority position.

Mtl JP 16:19 GMT June 24, 2014
The FED

today Plosser is the bad cop
two good cops - voting dove Dudley non-voting dove Williams - still on the yak-docket later this aft.
-
Bottom Line:
players don't pay insta-attention so probably best ignored

GVI Forex john 16:16 GMT June 24, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


  • Markets are ending in Europe in a mixed risk posture. U.S. data today have been positive again, while the key German IFO survey for June underperformed street expectations.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are ending steady on the day.. Yields on the European periphery fell.
  • U.K. yields are steady. Testimony by BOE Governor Carney was mixed, but took the edge off the risk of a sharp tightening of policy. We still see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S. yields are steady as well. The U.S. 10-yr is pivoting the 2.60% line.The U.S. 10-yr is 2.60%, 0 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe ended mostly up. U.S. shares are better.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Paris ib 16:14 GMT June 24, 2014
The FED
Reply   
This guy wants to hike rates in the third quarter. Does he count?

Plosser

NY JM 16:06 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1.40 has been the line in the sand all year and assume the top is in unless it gets taken out, which I give very low odds.

Mtl JP 15:51 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

JM is the 1.40 from your Forex Maximum Pain calculator ?

NY JM 15:48 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

JP, ECB has put a cap the EURUSD upside so we know the top but not the bottom. 1.40 would suprise me a lot more than 1.30.

Mtl JP 15:43 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

NY JM 15:01 we both seem to prefer shorting euro on pops.
Wonder if it is because of the dovish Draghi ECB ?

GVI Forex Blog 15:35 GMT June 24, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
US markets have resumed their climb higher after two flattish sessions. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.15%, the S&P500 is up 0.27% and the Nasdaq is up 0.70%

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Strong US Data Lifts Stocks After Two-Day Pause

Mtl JP 15:29 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1.3590 3x bottom here and current support
head n shoulder players on edge

USA BJ 15:18 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Unless it gets back above 1.3675-80 expect another run at 1.35. it is a matter of when not imo

Mtl JP 15:16 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

UK JY 15:02 - search in the archive says this is your first and only post. ever. so welcome to the forum.
-
my x-mass wish is for g-v to disallow verbs in past tense

GVI Forex Blog 15:07 GMT June 24, 2014
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES
Reply   
June 24, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, June 25. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- Durable Goods, GDP, SVC PMI, 5-yr Auction

GVI Forex Data Outlook for June 25, 2014

GVI Forex john 15:04 GMT June 24, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


June 24, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, June 25. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- Durable Goods, GDP, SVC PMI, 5-yr Auction

  • Far East: No Major data.
  • Europe: GB- Distributive Trades Survey.
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Durable Goods, GDP, SVC PMI, Weekly Crude, 5-yr Auction.


UK JY 15:02 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

Buy USDJPY
Entry: 101.60-90 Target: 102+ Stop: 101.40

Buying usdjpy from 101.60-90 has worded every day for 2 weeks.

NY JM 15:01 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

JP, a great # to fade if there is any reaction.

Mtl JP 14:58 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Jay note: WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25
US - 8:30 am GDP revision 1Q exp.: -2.0% vs last: -1.0%

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:51 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Not many trade calls today -- it is like different centers are trading with different agendas and thus lack of follow through from session to session.

Market still seems to require data to move

Anyone see it different?

Dillon AL 14:49 GMT June 24, 2014
May 2014 U.S. New Home Sales

Dillon AL 20:18 GMT June 10, 2014
S&P500 tgt remains 2135
The stock market bears need to ask
1. where is the down and out number
2. where would a retracement do damage to the current uptrend and suggest a top
3. in what timeframe
4. and just for fun...what constitutes an overbought market
cc:Dillon AL 02:25 GMT May 30, 2014
cc:Dillon AL 21:35 GMT May 12, 2014
=========
The market reminds me a little of May/June 2000 and it wasn't until the fall (Autumn) that we then rolled over in what became the dotcom crash
In a low "vol" environment then the grind will continue to frustrate the bears until they throw in the towel. If you want to sell answer the above questions. Comments? agree or disagree??

Mtl JP 14:42 GMT June 24, 2014
May 2014 U.S. New Home Sales

ib cost of money and accessibility to it probably of no concern and therefor no issue atm; house prices and cons conf trump.
all is well

dc CB 14:40 GMT June 24, 2014
May 2014 U.S. New Home Sales

wait till you see how high it gets by the end of the week/month/quarter/half....

BOOOOOOOOOONUS

Paris ib 14:26 GMT June 24, 2014
May 2014 U.S. New Home Sales

S and P just made a new record high. Clap hands everyone.

Mtl JP 14:21 GMT June 24, 2014
May 2014 U.S. New Home Sales

it raises the question where did all those "new home buyers" rustle up the required (?) the down-payment

GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT June 24, 2014
May 2014 U.S. New Home Sales



New Homes Sales have unexpectedly improve to new recent highs.

GVI Forex john 14:14 GMT June 24, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment. Conference Board Survey much stronger than expected.



GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:13 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

And now we head back towards 1.3600 ... Levels were all spelled out in my Daily Forex Trading Outlook video (1.3633-42 => 1.3615 => 1.3600) and for those who have not taken advantage of my offer, you missed out today.

Mtl JP 14:09 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

sofar usdyen responding lamely to the pop in 10-yr yield

Mtl JP 14:05 GMT June 24, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

consumers got a sudden attack of wild iexuberance - - did some get a massive pay raise ?

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT June 24, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
85.2 vs. 83.5 exp. vs. 83.0 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT June 24, 2014
May 2014 U.S. New Home Sales
Reply   



ALERT
504K vs. 420K exp. vs. 433K (r 425) prev.


New Residential Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer



Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT June 24, 2014
U.S. Richmond Fed
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
+3 vs. +6 exp. vs. +7 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:39 GMT June 24, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.595% still pivoting 2.60%.

Mtl JP 13:33 GMT June 24, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Case Shiller-20

"after" ... sounds to me like Cœuré and his panelists are a getting a bit ahead of themselves

Paris ib 13:30 GMT June 24, 2014
June 2014 German ZEW and IFO Surveys

The global economic recovery is about to fall over.

Mtl JP 13:28 GMT June 24, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Case Shiller-20

they are re-thinking...

Tuesday, 24 June 2014
Benoît Cœuré
Event: Chairing by Mr. Cœuré of Policy Panel “Rethinking Economics after the Crisis” at Concluding conference of the ESCB’s Macro-prudential Research Network (MaRs) organised by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.
Time: 3.50 p.m. CET (or 9:50 NYT)

GVI Forex john 13:10 GMT June 24, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Case Shiller-20

Frankly I don't know why anyone cares about Case Shiller. Data are ancient and don't tell us much new.

GVI Forex john 13:08 GMT June 24, 2014
April 2014 U.S. Case Shiller-20
Reply   



ALERT
+10.82 vs. +11.50% exp. vs. +12.40% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 13:01 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

numbnuts Abe
(Reuters Jun 24, 2014) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Tuesday that a "positive cycle" was appearing in the country's economy as rising corporate revenues lead to higher wages and household income. .../..

GVI Forex john 12:58 GMT June 24, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10=yr 2.601% virtually unchanged.

Mtl JP 12:51 GMT June 24, 2014
Global Markets News

(Reuters) Russia's Putin renounces right to send troops to Ukraine - Kremlin
--
Brent around $114

Mtl JP 12:44 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

from g-v's chartpoints table:
100 day 102.21
quote: 101.90
200 day 101.69
-
Bottom Line:
preferred current bias: sell

London Misha 12:43 GMT June 24, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Bullish Piercing Line Pattern on Daily Chart but caught between Fibs 1.3561(38.2%) & 1.3644(50%).
USDJPY - Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart but caught between Long MA (101.68) & Fibs (102.17).
GBPUSD - Bullish Harami on Daily Chart but fails again to close over 2009 high at 1.7062!
USDCHF - Bearish Harami, Long Shadow & 4th close below Long MA on Daily Chart. Testing recent 50% Fib (0.8926).
EURGBP - 2nd White Soldier & possible Double Bottom on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart! Nearing 2014 high (0.9462)!
USDINR - Testing Fib support band 60.07-60.09 on Daily Chart!
USDZAR - Still follow on to Key Reversal Down & recent Bearish Engulfing Pattern. Possibly either a Double Top or Reverse H+S.
USDBRL - Bearish Engulfing Pattern breaks down through Jun low on Daily Chart but into support band 2.1978-2.2200.



Mtl JP 12:36 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

noise.. speed-bumps...

BoJ Kuroda pre‐emptively plays down inflation speed bump - WSJ

GVI Forex john 12:17 GMT June 24, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Forex market from EUR Perspective. All GREEN changes on the day, even though the spot to 20-day averages are all RED.



GVI Forex john 12:12 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
S&P to USDJPY correlation especially tight today. This usually suggests to me that markets are looking for a story.

S&P futures trying to rally?

NY JM 12:11 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Tallin, good plan but probably hard to reach unless EURGBP liquidates more (higher).

eurusd
Tallinn viies 09:57 GMT 06/24/2014
plan to sell euro at 1.3635-40 area. still think 1.3500 will be tested again before this month is over. ver very strong resistance now is 1.3675-80

Mtl JP 12:04 GMT June 24, 2014
Current Patterns

Jay 11:56 watch the 10-yr price (or its yield) for a waltz w/usdyen

Mtl JP 12:03 GMT June 24, 2014
Global Markets News

voting hawk Plosser about to yak
on "policy"

GVI Forex john 11:59 GMT June 24, 2014
June 2014 German ZEW and IFO Surveys
Reply   
NEW CHART: Latest ZEW and IFO surveys "expectations" minus "current situation". This provides implied forecasts. Both Surveys are deeply negative and thus pessimistic for the next six months.
Comments??

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:56 GMT June 24, 2014
Current Patterns
Reply   
USDJPY 102 trades for 10th day

EURUSD 1.36 trades for 5th day

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:48 GMT June 24, 2014
is a Forex Trade Copier Right for Me?
Reply   
My latest article and feel free to send me your comments

is a Forex Trade Copier Right for Me?

GVI Forex john 10:42 GMT June 24, 2014
June 2014 German IFO Survey

Definition:

"...The (7000) firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as "good", "satisfactorily" or "poor" and their business expectations for the next six months as "more favourable", "unchanged" or "more unfavourable". The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry and aggregated.

The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses "good" and "poor", the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses "more favourable" and "more unfavourable". The business climate is a mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations."

--IFO

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:38 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

ECB wants a limit on the EURUSD upside but if it really wants the currency significantly lower, then QE is the answer and that is not on the table now even though Draghi leaves it open as a policy tool.

GVI Forex john 10:32 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD

fair point, except weak data put pressure on ECB for additional ease and the ECB wants weaker currency.

GVI Forex 10:28 GMT June 24, 2014
BOE Governor Carney

Some quantification from Carney of what to expect he said the benchmark rate will still be "Materially Below" Historic Levels In 2017.

Mtl JP 10:25 GMT June 24, 2014
Ukraine

Ukraine wants to become a member of the European Union “within a decade”, the country's Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin told euronews in an interview on Monday.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:24 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD

John, one reason to fade EZ news is that the ECB is on hold until at least 2016 so data is not going to change policy either way. The question is QE or no QE and that is for a future debate.

GVI Forex Blog 10:21 GMT June 24, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Various BOE members highlight slack in UK economy in testimony; GBP currency moves below 1.70 level as a result

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE members back-track some recent hawkish tone; German IFO disappoints

Mtl JP 10:13 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD

reminder : "Central Bank Forward Guidance Does Not Work" - g-v tradersadvocate

GVI Forex john 09:58 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD
Reply   
The Carney message is coming across mixed in the headlines. I think the bottom line is that Carney is trying to send the message that the START of a policy normalization is on the horizon, depending on future data. But he is ALSO telling the markets that a policy tightening would be limited and gradual. He wants to normalize monetary policy , but does not want to endanger the economic recovery. He is walking a fine line.

As for trading, recently it has paid to fade the market reactions to news. That was also true of the IFO survey earlier. Usually it is the "hardest" trade that works. Once the market catches on, the strategy of fading the reaction to news will stop working.

Tallinn viies 09:57 GMT June 24, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
plan to sell euro at 1.3635-40 area. still think 1.3500 will be tested again before this month is over. ver very strong resistance now is 1.3675-80

London Chris 09:40 GMT June 24, 2014
GBP

You had the right idea. Too late now unless you bought the dip

Singapore SC 09:22 GMT June 24, 2014
GBP

Thank you. Any suggestions for a buy level.

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT June 24, 2014
BOE Governor Carney

The focal point of BOE monetary policy is managing potential capacity. Carney says that a rise in interest rates will be "limited and gradual".

GVI Forex john 08:56 GMT June 24, 2014
BOE Governor Carney
Reply   
Carney testifies that wage growth has been slower than expected. Miles said that spare capacity is at the upper end of the BOE's range. BOE comments are being seen as adverse for those expecting a U.K. rate hike in the near term.

GBP falls on his dovish comments.

Singapore SC 08:55 GMT June 24, 2014
GBP
Reply   
Why is it weaker? News?

GVI Forex Blog 08:45 GMT June 24, 2014
June German IFO Survey Misses Expectations. U.S. Conference Board Survey Due
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Conference Board Survey, New Homes Sales

The June German IFO Survey disappointed earlier todays. Recent German data generally have been consistently weaker than expected. The EURUSD initially dipped on the news and then recovered.

June German IFO Survey Misses Expectations. U.S. Conference Board Survey Due

GVI Forex john 08:32 GMT June 24, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • Markets are in a mixed risk posture early in  Europe The key German IFO survey for June has underperformed street expectations.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. Yields on the European periphery have fallen.
  • U.K. yields are up. Most see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S. yields are up slightly as well. The U.S. 10-yr is pivoting the 2.60% line.The U.S. 10-yr is 2.61%, +1 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mostly up. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Paris ib 08:14 GMT June 24, 2014
Forex News

"However, what will certainly not help mute "conspiracy theorists" is today's update from today's edition of Die Welt, in which we learn that only a tiny 5 tons of gold were sent from the NY Fed. The rest came from Paris."

ZeroHedge on Germany's Gold

Paris ib 08:09 GMT June 24, 2014
Forex News

"a year after the Bundesbank announced its stunning decision.... to repatriate 674 tons of gold from the New York Fed... it had managed to transfer a paltry 37 tons. This amount represents just 5% of the stated target, and was well below the 84 tons that the Bundesbank would need to transport each year to collect the 674 tons...over the 8 year interval"

Now no repatriation is scheduled. I guess the Germans will just keep selling Gold certificates of deposit linked to their reserves and BUYING Gold for real delivery. USD positive? I think not.

GVI Forex john 08:09 GMT June 24, 2014
June 2014 German IFO Survey

"The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell to 110.4 points in May from 111.2 points last month. Assessments of the current business situation were no longer as favourable as in April. Companies are also less optimistic about future business developments. A lull was seen in the German economy in May..."

-- IFO

GVI Forex john 08:07 GMT June 24, 2014
June 2014 German IFO Survey

German Ifo data: German data softer than expected across the board. This is a broadly followed report EURUSD dips, then recovers.



london red 08:05 GMT June 24, 2014
euro
Reply   
soggy ifo but so far limited reaction with a reverseal as i write. 3590 is pivot, below here we can run at the 200 hour ma. while holding above, might be a tendancy to squeeze shorts (imm positioning is pretty short euro) to retest 13611. above there 13636 comes into play.

GVI Forex john 08:02 GMT June 24, 2014
June 2014 German IFO Survey
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Climate: 109.7 vs. 110.2 exp. vs. 110.4 prev.
Conditions: 114.8 vs. 115.0 exp. vs. 114.8 prev.
Expectations: 104.8 vs. 105.9 exp. vs. 106.2 prev.

IFO Climate Survey



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Paris ib 08:01 GMT June 24, 2014
Forex News

JP - I wonder what kind of pressure was brought on Germany to do this? Love the article. Love how it's implied that Germany's move to repatriate its Gold reserves from the U.S. (something that the New York FED was unable to comply with) was somehow Euro negative !! At any rate the cat's out of the bag now. I very much doubt anyone now believes that the New York FED has all that German Gold stored safe and sound. What's clear is that there was no way the New York FED was able to return the metal but now - joy of joys - they don't have to. Does mean that the United States is a safe and reliable haven for reserves? I think not. The whole thing looks dodgy as h.ell. The Yanks are only now, perhaps, coming to terms with the damage to their standing in the international community. But I doubt that they can repair the damage.

GVI Forex john 07:53 GMT June 24, 2014
Gold Forum
Reply   
Issue with Gold forum has been repaired

GVI Forex Blog 07:25 GMT June 24, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA MAY CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 0.7% V 1.0% PRIOR - (VN) Vietnam June Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.9%e - (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidenc

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Sentiment brightens as manufacturing figures from China, US, Japan recover - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 07:16 GMT June 24, 2014
Forex News

correction: owns... s/b has

Mtl JP 06:56 GMT June 24, 2014
Forex News

He who owns Gold makes the rules

Interesting to read who are the traitors to German nation:
German Gold Stays in New York in Rebuff to Euro Doubters - Bloomberg

"Germany has decided its gold is safe in American hands. "...
-
Bottom Line:
Germany's end is near(er).

nw kw 05:02 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

swiss can be a carry trade the gov. keeps Lowe rates can be trending soft

GVI Forex Blog 03:36 GMT June 24, 2014 Reply   
The marginal new highs without any kind of momentum in the US and European markets

Morning Briefing : 24-Jun-2014 -0335 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:38 GMT June 24, 2014
AceTrader Jun 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

24 Jun 2014 01:37GMT

USD/JPY - ... Despite last Fri's brief rebound from 101.74 to 102.20, U.S. dollar ratcheted lower to 101.82 yesterday due to the weakness in Nikkei-225 index futures in Chicago yesterday. Nikkei-225 index currently dropped by 92 points to 15277. Offers are now reported at 101.90-00 and more at 102.10-20. On the downside, mixture of bids and stops is located at 101.70 and 101.60.

Trading is expected to be thin today as expectations for price swings in the dollar against the Japanese yen fell to a record low due to signs of an uneven U.S. economic recovery fueled bets the Federal Reserve will keep borrowing costs at unprecedented lows.

Kyodo news reported earlier on June 19 that Japan's cabinet may approve the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's growth plan today.


Yesterday, White House said 'Obama spoke to Russian President Putin on Monday, saying Russia will face additional costs if there are no concrete actions to de-escalate Ukraine situation.'


Data to be released on Tuesday:

Switzerland trade balance, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK mortgage approvals, U.S. consumer confidence, new home sales.

Brock Thor 02:10 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

I'm staying long to 1.36142 to 47 pips above.
DOW had small loss today.
Thinking gains Tuesday.

Should reach out 47 tp.

Agreed about war not effecting market .
Thought there would be more impact on this end.

dc CB 01:40 GMT June 24, 2014
Two Tens for a Five
Reply   
"Laundry pickup services are expensive and often have long turnaround times," the Washboard website explains. "For many folks, the biggest pain point is simply finding enough quarters.

"Banks have long lines and close early. Grocery and convenience stores aren't always willing to give out more than a few dollars worth of quarters at a time. We put getting quarters on autopilot so you never have to worry about it again.

The startup's launch comes just days after Yo - a mobile application which lets users send each other its eponymous two-letter greeting - raised $1m in funding.

Startup Washboard sells $10 of quarters for $15

Brock Thor 01:20 GMT June 24, 2014
Jay famous to Pats Fans!

Posted under Interesting Peoples and Places.

Hey...good to see ya on the site.

Brock Thor 01:16 GMT June 24, 2014
Jay famous to Pats Fans!

Your on the Official Pats site.
Your photo behind your computer.
I clicked '+ÀDD'
Then clicked 'o Follow'
And 'o Freinds'

Location NewEngland Patriots Official site.
Center of page under the football .
4-5 articles down.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:12 GMT June 24, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EURUSD 1.36 trades for 5th day

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:00 GMT June 24, 2014
Jay famous to Pats Fans!

Brock, no clue what you mean.

Brock Thor 00:30 GMT June 24, 2014
Jay famous to Pats Fans!
Reply   
Jay I just saw a post for you on the New England Patriot's website.

' you may know' with your photo.

Welcome aboard.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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