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Forex Forum Archive for 06/25/2014

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tokyo ginko 23:50 GMT June 25, 2014
usd/jpy
Reply   
sold farm, buy usd/jpy 101.81

syd sf 23:41 GMT June 25, 2014
Markets Blindsided by Much Larger Than Expected Downward U.S. GDP Revision

the data didn't shock me - it has been a long time coming.

the problem for Asia is more that you know you will get better prices to deal on later - so it is a bit hard to press it early in the day.

I do appreciate Paris's views on the US and the Foreign Capital view at the present time ... but until Yellen proves to be a complete screw-up - I'm not sure much actually changes though.

$yen should actually be the biggest mover at present - but I can put a post it note on my screen and cover the whole range for the last few weeks.... that is the thermometer of FX -- and first signal of any real change.

Mtl JP 22:58 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Buy USDJPY
Entry: 71 Target: 102.01+ Stop: 101.59

looking for some disturbance
x fingers

syd sf 21:07 GMT June 25, 2014
morning
Reply   
what my bots are doing at the moment is

+eurgbp breakout strategy --> 8065
-audnzd breakout strategy ---> 10715

eur range strategy - couple of bots

a. buys 25/26
b. sells 37-38

gbp
sells 87-88 again

eurcad +08

gold - buys more looks for 33-38

non bot trade would like to sell $cad 30-40 t/p @10675

BOL with your trades today.

dc CB 20:26 GMT June 25, 2014
Markets Blindsided by Much Larger Than Expected Downward U.S. GDP Revision

zerohedge @zerohedge
Follow

If the complete collapse of the US economy doesn't send the S&P to new all time highs, nothing will
8:45 AM - 25 Jun 2014

dc CB 20:25 GMT June 25, 2014
On the Job getting dem HFTers

stats posted by a ZH reader:

The SP500 has gone 402 market days without a 6% correction.
The SP500 has gone 516 market days without a 8% correction.
The SP500 has gone 681 market days without a 10% correction.

GVI Forex john 20:16 GMT June 25, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
THURSDAY JUNE 26, 2014
JP Unemployed Mar
JP Retail Sales yy Apr
US Initial Claims - Most current read on Jobs
US Cont Claims
US PCE defl y - Primary Fed Inflation Measure
US Per Inc May  Wage levels
TRY TRY 7-yr
FRIDAY JUNE 27, 2014
JP Core CPI May  - BOJ Inflation Target
JP CPI
CH KOF Ind - Swiss Sentiment Index
GB GDP 1Q14 QQ - UK GDP Revision
GB GDP 1Q14 YY
US U Mich final Closely followed
MONDAY JUNE 30, 2014
US Chicago PMI
US Pending Homes Sales

GVI Forex john 19:45 GMT June 25, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:44 GMT June 25, 2014
On the Job getting dem HFTers

Today's New Closing High on the NASDAQ brought to you by
POMO
$2.513billions worth.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 19:24 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EURUSD moved back to 1.3625-35 was inevitable after 1.3650 failed but painfully slow move. 4 hour 200 period mva currently 1.3625.

GVI Forex john 19:14 GMT June 25, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


dc CB 19:13 GMT June 25, 2014
On the Job getting dem HFTers
Reply   
As Bloomberg reports,

Barclays is being sued by New York State attorney general over fraud allegations related to marketing and operation of its dark pool, person familiar with he matter tells Bloomberg’s Keri Geiger.
Mark Lane, a spokesman for Barclays, declines to comment

NOTE: Barclays runs one of Wall Street’s largest dark pools, an alternative trading venue where investors can trade mostly anonymously.


the former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, Stephen Roach, who in the clip below laid it out perfectly in an interview with Bloomberg TV earlier today, and explains precisely why HFT will be the next big Lehman-type fall guy, just after the next market crash happens.

To wit: "flash traders are bit players compared to the biggest rigger of all which is the Fed." Because after the next crash, which is only a matter of time, everything will be done to deflect attention from the "biggest rigger of all."

NY AG Sues Barclays For HFT Fraud

GVI Forex Blog 18:56 GMT June 25, 2014 Reply   
June 25, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, June 26. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, US- Jobless Claims, Personal Income & PCE Deflator, 7-yr Auction

GVI Forex Data Outlook for June 26, 2014

GVI Forex john 18:53 GMT June 25, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


June 25, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, June 26. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, US- Jobless Claims, Personal Income & PCE Deflator, 7-yr Auction

  • Far East: JP- Unemployment, Retail Sales.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: US- Jobless Claims, Personal Income & PCE Deflator, Natural Gas, 7-yr Auction.


GVI Forex Blog 18:51 GMT June 25, 2014
Markets Blindsided by Much Larger Than Expected Downward U.S. GDP Revision
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Retail Sales, US- Jobless Claims, Per Inc & PCE Deflator, 7-yr Auction

Markets were befuddled Wednesday by mixed U.S. economic data. The third and final 1Q14 U.S. GDP revision saw the data unexpectedly to an annual decline of 2.90% from -1.00%. Typically the third revision to GDP is relatively small. Later in the session the flash Markit Service PMI showed a significant increase.

Markets Blindsided by Much Larger Than Expected Downward U.S. GDP Revision

dc CB 18:37 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

the thing about the Yen. when the GDP hit JY Futures rocketed from 9818 to 9956 in on the 1 minute chart on 17,350 contract.

It closed out that 1 min bar at 9829.


so the Yen is rattled a bit today.

Mtl JP 18:32 GMT June 25, 2014
Us Weather

yes: guaranteed that you will not see one there in your lifetime
-
on another note: notice that Harper is pushing to build a pipeline to be able to ship Alberta's crude to Asia

Livingston nh 18:26 GMT June 25, 2014
Us Weather

JP - any word on my Hudson Bay Citrus Plantation??

Livingston nh 18:21 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

John - follow up - spx is at ~1958 w/ hrly and 15 min chart crossover implications -- a failure here puts yen in the driver's seat

dc CB 18:20 GMT June 25, 2014
Us Weather

And so the polar bears penguins come out of hibernation, "explaining" today's disastrous GDP print. Randomly selected for your reading pleasure, here is Bank of Frigid America's Ethan Harris spiking the Kool Aid with an above Surgeon General recommended dose of hopium.

"An Unforgettable Winter" - Bank Of America's "Explanation" For The 17th Worst GDP Print In US History

dc CB 18:18 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14f

Paris ib 14:46 GMT
CB - ah the doom and gloomers


actually he's not a GnDer. He pretty much lays out who's buying what...Bonds, and Stocks, along with why a 14% correction in Stox is the most that will happen. He thinks that the 10Y will go to 1.5% ...and that the game will go on for at least another year.

PAR 18:07 GMT June 25, 2014
Us Weather

Strange that it is the cold that is killing the Us economy instead of the predicted heat. Like with the economy, long
term weather difficult to predict .

We could maybe start looking at the weather excluding weekends , or excluding certain cities. Then Yellen may conclude this winter was just NOISY .

london red 18:02 GMT June 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Usdjpy touches channel line broken earlier today and i have closed long at this point. To 102.05/10 may be explored if above 10190 but not for me.

Livingston nh 17:57 GMT June 25, 2014
Us Weather

Par - haven't you heard we are all doomed by global warming - even such a renowned crisis manger as "Bazooka Hank" has joined the "do-gooders"

He didn't see a financial crisis but he's sure the climate is going to crash --- ha ha and of course courtesy of the NY Times not the WSJ LINK

PAR 17:49 GMT June 25, 2014
Us Weather

Lets hope we don t get " a long hot summer " .

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:44 GMT June 25, 2014
Us Weather

PAR, here is the point:

Lousy Q1, better Q2 and let's see about the 2H2014.

Markets have a short memory and it is like what have you done for me lately.

Basic problem seems to be US is creating jobs but not good ones and that is what you need for a tight labor market, higher wages and fed reacting by raising rates.

PAR 17:38 GMT June 25, 2014
Us Weather
Reply   
Too cold winter , too hot summer and the US economy collapses . . Have Yellen from time to time look at Accuweather.com and use a little of common sense , or engage some metereologists at the Fed .

Livingston nh 17:22 GMT June 25, 2014
Hubris Lives
Reply   
Doesn't take long -- if the stox tank again "recession and bear" should top the google search :
LINK

"There is one good result that might come from the very weak economic numbers being reported. The silly blather about rising inflation that intensified in June as headline CPI inflation reached a year over year pace of 2.1 % may end. Most of the modest rise in inflation is due to negative supply shocks: drought that has boosted food prices and rising Middle East tension that has boosted energy prices. The Fed doesn’t respond to higher inflation tied to negative supply shocks because any Fed tightening, a negative demand shock, would result in a collapse of output and employment. That lesson was learned the hard way during 1974-75 when central banks boosted interest rates in response to the jump in inflation caused by a jump in energy prices." ((The dangers of a good analogy -although this is not even good))

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:04 GMT June 25, 2014
Adapt and Thrive or Be Stubborn and Die
Reply   
My latest article, a timely one

Adapt and Thrive or Be Stubborn and Die

Mtl JP 16:20 GMT June 25, 2014
Global Markets News

A ruse or a sudden grip of rationality ?

Bank of Japan, more confident about recovery, quietly eyes stimulus exit - rtrs

(Reuters) - The Bank of Japan has begun shifting its focus from supporting growth to ways of phasing out its massive stimulus, taking first tentative steps towards a potentially momentous move for the world economy.

Current and former central bankers familiar with internal discussions say an informal debate is under way on how to prepare for an exit from the BOJ's 13-month-old "quantitative and qualitative monetary easing." .../..

Mtl JP 16:10 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD



rather than SnP , I suspect usdyen is not going to see much of a bid unless the 10-yr comes off in price and starts to offer a better yield
-
Tragy-comedy file
"This week on the 27th of June we are going to sign this agreement, ... which shows that the EU is giving a helping hand to other parts of Europe that do not yet enjoy all the benefits of European integration." - Barroso via rtrs

Talking of "helping hand"
IMF mission visits Ukraine for bailout update - rtrs

HK [email protected] 16:10 GMT June 25, 2014
1.3650 ("50" level) proving too tough
Reply   


Not at all; Just prices advanced too fast(slight consolidation is needed), and so 1.3660 may even be seen until NY close.

Mtl JP 15:59 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

usdyen g-v chartpoints
100 day 102.21
quote: 101.73
200 day 101.71
-
Bottom Line
still trading within range
zzzzz

Mtl JP 15:55 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

re "Event risks: Geopolitics, especially Iraq (watch oil)"

Iraq: A View from the Inside Out - ZH
fwiw

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:47 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Quick summary:

Momentum broken but that was obvious by the way it traded around 1.36 the past week

- Above 200 day mva at 1.3590
- Above its 4 hour 200 period mva (1.3626) for first time since first week of May
- 1.3650 blocks the key level at 1.3675
- 1.3600 has traded 6 days in a row so watch this pattern on Thursday (1.3620 needs to hold to keep focus from 1.3600)

Event risks:
Geopolitics, especially Iraq (watch oil)
US PCE tomorrow
Month and quarter end

GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

NH- on my overlay chart, it looks like the S&P is trying to lead USDJPY higher but USDJPY is not following. One or the other has to give.

My guess is S&P will top out, because USDJPY is not going to follow, imvho

GVI Forex Blog 15:24 GMT June 25, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The second revision of the weather-impacted first quarter GDP was worse than expected, at -2.9% final from -1.0% preliminary. and the surprise relative to our forecast was all in the health care estimates.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: A Welcome Dose of Volatility

Livingston nh 15:21 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

The 2 yr auction yesterday rattled some equity folks - today's Q1 GDP takes some of the pressure off FI -- EUR 144 ema is 1.3653 (the 21 dma has stopped dropping and is between the two l/t avgs 144 and 233)

BUT is the yen leading the SPX for this afternoon session??

GVI Forex john 15:14 GMT June 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


  • Markets are in a mixed risk off posture late in the European session  U.S. data have been mixed with 1Q14 GDP very weak and the ISM flash Services PMI very strong.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets eased after weak GDP. Yields on the European periphery are mixed.
  • U.K. yields have fallen. Testimony by BOE Governor Carney Tuesday reduced the risk of a sharp policy tightening of policy. We see only a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S. yields have eased  as well. The U.S. 10-yr is pivoting the 2.60% line.The U.S. 10-yr is 2.55%, -5 bp.
  • Equities closed lower in the Far East. Bourses in Europe ending down. U.S. shares are better.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Paris ib 15:13 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Jay - because we will be told that all the bad news is behind us.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:01 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1.3650 ("50" level) proving too tough

US equities like the bad news

Mtl JP 14:59 GMT June 25, 2014
Global Markets News

Canada implements first Bitcoin legislation - cnw

On June 19th, Canada gave Royal Assent to Bill C-31, An Act to Implement Certain Provisions of the Budget Tabled in Parliament on February 11, 2014 and Other Measures. The bill includes provisions on virtual currencies like Bitcoin, requiring similar reporting and regulatory standards applied by traditional financial markets. The new law regulates Bitcoin as a "money service business" and specifically addresses dealers in virtual currencies. It is expected to cover Bitcoin exchanges and ATMs. .../..

Paris ib 14:46 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14f

CB - ah the doom and gloomers. I've got a bit fed up with these people. I'm not sure what they do is useful.

dc CB 14:40 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14f

Paris ib

one opinion of how long the CBs can keep the balls in the air

Macroeconomist Gordon Long

HK [email protected] 14:37 GMT June 25, 2014
NZD/US Eventually to 0.90



The upward path of "least resistance" for NZD, is favorable than that for AUD.

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT June 25, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +1.740 vs. +1.000 exp vs. -0.579 prev.
Gasoline: +0.710 vs. -1.000 exp vs. +0.785 prev.
Distillates: +1.200 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +0.35 prev.
Cap/Util: 88.50% vs. n/a exp vs. 87.1% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

HK [email protected] 14:27 GMT June 25, 2014
NZD/US Eventually to 0.90
Reply   
.

GVI Forex john 14:25 GMT June 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Hearing GS has RAISED its 2Q14 U.S. GDP tracking forecast to 4.0% from 3.80% Not sure if this was AFTER flash Markit Services PMI, but we doubt it.

Dillon AL 14:24 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1.3680 probably a fade but why not trade both sides especially if 4h bar closes > 1.3642 and if not then look for a pullback to the 1.36teens. Kinda watching UsdChf that much maligned and unloved pair to see if there is a clue cos the way it feels is that the Euro is just a bouncing ball vs xxx rather than an outright

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:17 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

It will come down to whether there are stops to run or offers stay at 1.3650.

Needs to hold above 1.3620-28 to keep a bid.

GVI Forex john 14:14 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EURUSD well above its 20-day average (1.3590). Don't expect much selling interest up here. That average becomes less significant the longer we stay here. Lets see if it can develop into support.

GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT June 25, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Markit flash Services PMI

Not surprisingly, the economic picture for the U.S. remains mixed. No risk for a Fed tightening until the economic picture becomes LESS MIXED.

10-yt 2.536%

london red 13:54 GMT June 25, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Markit flash Services PMI

bigger options shortly, yen 101.90/102 euro 13620/25 as well as 136 and 13650.

london red 13:49 GMT June 25, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Markit flash Services PMI

all sub components v good jobs 9 month high. euro still stuck at pullback low around 50% of gdp move.

GVI Forex john 13:47 GMT June 25, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Markit flash Services PMI

U.S. flash Markit Service PMI. Much stronger than forecast..

Paris ib 13:47 GMT June 25, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Markit flash Services PMI

Right on queue.

london red 13:37 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14f

gdp was bad ok, this was a surprise to a few, but they are spinning durables higher after minusing defence and aircraft. might need a good pmi to make it stick but similarly hard to find catalyst for euro sustained gains above 13670

Mtl JP 13:28 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14f

with all the accusations of putting out fixed / manipulated numbers , aren't you surprised they let out such huge (48% miss by the "experts") ugly number ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:25 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

As per my video, EURUSD is above its 4 hour 200 period mva (1.3626), first time since early May

Paris ib 13:17 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14f

JP - the supposed invulnerability of the FED is a joke. The FED can only print USDs and that is only a useful tool as long as the USD has value. If the FED goes too far with this little policy trick, having lots of USDs available might not be that exciting. So there are limits to what the FED can actually do. The U.S. is having a bit of a mental issue adjusting to its diminished international reserve currency status. Once upon a time the FED really could just man the presses, but it didn't have to because money was flooding into the country. Under Volker because of high short term interest rates and during the Asian crisis because Asian central banks were building foreign currency reserves. All that is over. Money is no longer flooding into the country and there are quite a lot of questions being asked about the soundness of U.S. fiscal and monetary policy.

To date the FED can not print Euros or JPY or other currencies. At least not legally. IMVHO the FED is cornered. Tapering will continue regardless of NOISE. That is regardless of economic data. What we got is interest rates at zero and the taper. Sooner or later short term rates will have to rise.

london red 13:13 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

covered short euro here at 50% of flash high from data print. want to see 75 85 90 before sell again for now. will assess before it gets up there. cant see above 13830 but makes for a big stop from 75. still long usdjpy with stop below 50.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:07 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1.3650 so far capping. Only through it would put the key 1.3675 level in play.

On the downside, 1.3620 needs to hold to keep a bid.

This is the first time I can remember a 3rd GDP revision having an impact but it is still old news even though it gives the Fed cover to stay dovish.

Mtl JP 13:06 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14f

Paris ib 12:40 reminder and a note that the FED can print unlimited quantities and that there is nothing preventing it from buying anything it chooses and that it can wait for as long as it chooses for prices to come back up

london red 13:03 GMT June 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

gdp seems to have surprised few, at least not enough to run stops over 3650 or under usdjpy 200 day ma. one more chance after option expiries to run stop otherwise likely to regain some ground. eurusd 36/33

GVI Forex john 12:54 GMT June 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr yield tumbling last 2.541% -6bp

Paris ib 12:50 GMT June 25, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Assuming the U.S. economic recovery is not actually faltering.

dc CB 12:47 GMT June 25, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

but look on the bright side. when 2ndQ GDP comes out a 0.5% that will Equal 4% GROWTH in the 2nd Q, just like dey predickted

Paris ib 12:44 GMT June 25, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

The next FOMC will be fun.

GVI Forex john 12:42 GMT June 25, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Poor Durable Goods Orders as well.

Paris ib 12:40 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14f

I wonder how long it will be before the kiss the idea of economic recovery good bye. Of course the FED will continue with the taper.... it has to, so there will be talk of NOISE and so on and so forth. Facts stand that the U.S. finances economic growth with foreign capital. Without the foreign capital there is no growth. Foreign capital has been heading for the exits (albeit slowly thus far) for some time.

GVI Forex john 12:40 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14p

1Q14 (annualized) Revised to -2.90%. Much weaker than expected and a big change for a second revision. Only positive is that these data are getting mighty old. No way to spin this.





dc CB 12:36 GMT June 25, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

wow, this and the GDP final number will make those 5years fly off the shelf at this afternoon's auction.

HK [email protected] 12:33 GMT June 25, 2014
Euro, keep steady for 1.3700



BISMILLLAAAAH!!!

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT June 25, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Headline: -1.00% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.60% (+0.80%) prev.
Ex-Trans: -0.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.





TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

london red 12:31 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14f

euro res 3636 higher again if taken

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT June 25, 2014
U.S. GDP 1Q14f
Reply   



ALERT
-2.90% vs. -1.70% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.


RELEASE: U.S. GDP


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

msa nsm 12:30 GMT June 25, 2014
Swing trades



CHFJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

i'm in love with this chart. So simple and clear trends/levels. Very clear levels. GL

GVI Forex 12:23 GMT June 25, 2014
us data

(US) Preview: Q1 Final GDP Annualized and Personal Consumption due at 08:30ET (12:30 GMT) (third reading of data)

**Consensus expectations:
- GDP Annualized QoQ: -1.8%e v -1.0% prelim
- Personal Consumption: 2.4%e v 3.1% prelim
- GDP Price Index: 1.3%e v 1.3% prelim
- Core PCE QoQ: 1.2%e v 1.2% prelim

- Source TradeTheNews.com

london red 12:23 GMT June 25, 2014
Swing trades

there are some folk looking for 7800, looks like we will get there this year. 7740 is 50% of historic low/high, looks like they want to revisit it.

msa nsm 12:20 GMT June 25, 2014
Swing trades

pardon 0.7777. nice 'zeus' fig. :)

msa nsm 12:17 GMT June 25, 2014
Swing trades

london red 07:50 GMT 06/25/2014
msa, similar trade for me in cable looking for 6905-20 to hold, long 30-10 stop under fig. for return to 50/73/10 day ma. eurgbp capable of 8050-64 well worth a short at upper end of range.
________________________

I have my eyes on 0.8777 for now, that will be a great trade for 2014. Current level 76.4% is very crucial.

Thanks for the alert.

london red 12:06 GMT June 25, 2014
us data
Reply   
today we get final q1 revision. healthcare is dragging this one down and i think the consensus is at risk here, with a few looking for worse than -2%. so we could get a surprise to the downside for the dollar, initially at least. still its backward looking and dips should be bought into tomorrows may pce which could surprise slightly to the upside f/c 1.5% risk imo to 1.6%.
we have a lot of options coming off today and tomorrow between 136 and 13650 so the logic would be to fade and moves above there in eurusd. Cable may get legs to 16994 (past fib which held yests late rally and also as of now the 200 hour) and possibly 17011, areas which i would fade as i dont expect to see yests high (just above 17030) breached before 16920 tested. usdjpy you suspect is going to close above its 200 day ma today in the misplaced hope of abe making some more deflation busting announcements, so any data dips here should probably be bought today.

prague mark 11:43 GMT June 25, 2014
Euro, keep steady for 1.3700

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

accumulation 1.36-1.3610 approching 1.3618 before data and the shoot to 1.3750 in two days. GL/GT

GVI Forex john 11:43 GMT June 25, 2014
Fundamentals for Trading
Reply   
We are in the midst of PMI releases. If they are representative of current economic trends, they rank currencies in the following order: GBP, USD, EUR, JPY.







GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:04 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD



Daily Trading Outlook Video Update

Waiting for GDP revisions

GVI Forex john 10:41 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Many are still trying to figure out what happened yesterday afternoon in the U.S. when stocks suddenly sold off.

Some say equities are already priced for perfection and shares have little upside left.

Another explanation was rumors about Iraq.

Also mentioned was half-yearend position squaring in advance of index adjustments

Others said the markets may be switching back to a "good news is bad news" response to data. The logic (?) to this is that good economic news increases the pressure on the Fed to tighten policy. The logic behind this is a bit of a stretch imho.

GVI Forex john 10:27 GMT June 25, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply   
Keep a close eye on the EUR spot vs. 20-day moving averages. Many of the pairs are close to flipping over to positive for the EUR. As we often point out on our COT charts The Spot vs. 20-day moving average relationship can set the TONE of the markets. Odds are net EURUSD long positions will fall when the Tuesday closing positions are released on Friday.

This also suggest that buying demand for EURUSD on dips will be less as well as will be interest in selling on rallies.

GVI Forex Blog 10:19 GMT June 25, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
USD was largely unchanged in a directionless trade. Dealers complained that low volatility and a lack of momentum was keeping many participants on the sidelines

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Low volatility dominates price action

GVI Forex john 10:01 GMT June 25, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Forex market from EUR Perspective. Mixed color changes on the day, even though the spot to 20-day averages are mostly RED. The EURUSD recently has turned GREEN (EURUSD positive). Note also that all the changes are in single digits EXCEPT a big slide in EURNZD (NZD much stronger).

SaaR KaL 09:41 GMT June 25, 2014
Sell Gold till 1250
Reply   
It is south bound

prague mark 09:20 GMT June 25, 2014
Euro, keep steady for 1.3700

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

stops above 1.3620-30 should fuel the move towards 1.3655/65

GVI Forex Blog 09:11 GMT June 25, 2014
Markets in a Risk-off Posture After U.S. Equity Sell-Off. Data News Today not Likely Market-Moving
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Durable Goods, GDP, SVC PMI, 5-yr Auction

Markets appear to be taking a risk-off posture possibly because of the approaching quarter- and half-yearend on Monday when many will be closing their books. This period also typically often sees a re balancing of forex hedges.

Markets in a Risk-off Posture After U.S. Equity Sell-Off. Data News Today not Likely Market-Moving

msa nsm 08:54 GMT June 25, 2014
Swing trades

Sell CHFJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

is that a 4hr h/s in formation, if we get to 113.07? cause if so, then we are in for much deeper targets.

comments?

GVI Forex john 08:53 GMT June 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • Markets are in a mild risk off posture early in Europe Wednesday following the late day sell-off in U.S. shares on Tuesday. Vague Iraq fears were blamed at the time. U.S. data were positive yesterday.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have eased today.. Yields on the European periphery are higher.
  • U.K. yields have fallen. Testimony by BOE Governor Carney Tuesday took the edge off the risk of a sharp tightening of policy. We still see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S. yields have eased  as well after stocks fell. The U.S. 10-yr is pivoting the 2.60% line.The U.S. 10-yr is 2.58%, -2 bp.
  • Equities closed lower in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are down. U.S. shares are better.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Hong Kong AceTrader 08:53 GMT June 25, 2014
AceTrader Jun 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views


GBP/USD - Despite recent ascent to a 5-1/2 year high of 1.7064 last Thur on robust U.K. economic data n early BoE Governor Mark Carney's hawkish Mansion House speech, yesterday's testimony by Carney & his MPC members instead of giving more clarity as to the timing n pace of interest rate increase, did just the opposite.

U.K. Telegraph reported Carney appeared to play down speculation of an imminent rate rise on Tue, as he stressed that soaring employment and robust UK growth were not matched by higher wages n rising productivity.

This provoked the ire of both Labour n Conservative MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, who reminded Mr Carney that less than 2 weeks ago he said the MPC could vote to raise rates from a record low of 0.5% "sooner than markets currently expect". Labour MP Pat McFadden accused policymakers of sending out mixed messages about the timing of the first rate increase. Mr McFadden said the Bank's forward guidance policy had initially led markets to believe that interest rates would not rise until 2016, when it forecast that the jobless rate would fall to 7%. However, unemployment has fallen much faster, n currently stands at 6.6%.

The Governor said his Mansion House speech was designed to quash speculation that rates were "never going to go up" or that they would return to the average of 5% seen before the financial crisis. He added that his comments were also aimed at correcting the belief that there was only around a 15% chance that interest rates could rise before the end of 2014. However, he repeated that the ultimate decision to raise rates would be driven by the performance of the economy.

Carney told MPs that while the economy was showing no signs of slowing down from its annual growth rate of around 4%, weak wage n productivity growth made the decision to begin raising interest rates from a record low of 0.5% more balanced.

msa nsm 08:42 GMT June 25, 2014
Swing trades

Sell OTHER
Entry: 0.8680/90 Target: 0.8514 Stop: Daily close

NZD/USD.

Nice swing trade here. Late entry but better levels to enter with current retest of broken supp/rest at current levels.

GL

Haifa ac 08:38 GMT June 25, 2014
Swing trades

Yes.

msa nsm 08:34 GMT June 25, 2014
Short

msa nsm 05:08 GMT 06/25/2014
msa nsm 09:05 GMT June 23, 2014
Short : Reply
msa nsm 08:29 GMT June 20, 2014
Short : Reply
Sell CHFJPY
Entry: 114/114.93 Target: 113/112 Stop: Daily close

No longer trading GOLD, really did hit me hard last year. RF was spot on on the analysis.

Back to currency swing trades off daily. gl
_______________
114 stop b/e.

orders still in place
_________

stopped at b/e. re-entry now at 114. order at 114.93 still in place.
___________

4hr close above 114.02 will trigger a hedge for 114.9 target, stops at previous bar low. GL.

nw kw 08:29 GMT June 25, 2014
ya you can lode them with pot -bad pres hear

GVI Forex Blog 08:09 GMT June 25, 2014 Reply   
Watch for new developments in this hot sector.

E-Cigarettes Could Have Massive Impact in Financial Markets

london red 07:50 GMT June 25, 2014
Swing trades

msa, similar trade for me in cable looking for 6905-20 to hold, long 30-10 stop under fig. for return to 50/73/10 day ma. eurgbp capable of 8050-64 well worth a short at upper end of range.

msa nsm 07:35 GMT June 25, 2014
Swing trades

Buy GBPUSD
Entry: 1.6925 Target: Stop: 1.6890

Orders in place. Looking for 1.6921 to hold. GL

nw kw 07:24 GMT June 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

aud/usa has 60day shifts next shift up july to august drop in September with oil

Amman Amman 06:16 GMT June 25, 2014


Can i get more information it?

msa nsm 05:10 GMT June 25, 2014
Swing trades

msa nsm 08:35 GMT June 20, 2014
Swing trades : Reply
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 0.9400 Target: 0.9325/9250 Stop: Daily close

Late entry. GL
_________________

if 1st target hit. stop to b/e. gl

msa nsm 05:08 GMT June 25, 2014
Short

msa nsm 09:05 GMT June 23, 2014
Short : Reply
msa nsm 08:29 GMT June 20, 2014
Short : Reply
Sell CHFJPY
Entry: 114/114.93 Target: 113/112 Stop: Daily close

No longer trading GOLD, really did hit me hard last year. RF was spot on on the analysis.

Back to currency swing trades off daily. gl
_______________
114 stop b/e.

orders still in place
_________

stopped at b/e. re-entry now at 114. order at 114.93 still in place

HK [email protected] 04:08 GMT June 25, 2014
Euro, keep steady for 1.3700
Reply   
.

GVI Forex Blog 03:52 GMT June 25, 2014 Reply   
*Notable Economic Data*** - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: -1.3% (3rd month of decline) V -1.3% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN MAY CORPORATE SERVICE PRICE INDEX Y/Y: 3.6% (10th consecutive rise; fastes

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan draws closer to corporate tax cut; Oil rallies amid speculation over suspended ban on US exports - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:39 GMT June 25, 2014 Reply   
Middle East violence has caused risk-off mode to prevail, resulting in some muted performance

Morning Briefing : 25-Jun-2014 -0338 GMT

Dillon AL 03:39 GMT June 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



Which way next ?

syd sf 03:05 GMT June 25, 2014
morning

nice down move in Gold - system turned to long

tight ranges in everything else

although eur.aud prob goes higher later in the day.

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:23 GMT June 25, 2014
AceTrader Jun 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

25 Jun 2014 01:44GMT

USD/JPY - ... The greenback bounced briefly to 102.17 due to the release upbeat U.S. economic data, including consumer confidence and new home sales, however, renewed risk aversion due to the geopolitical tensions in Iraqi n Ukraine knocked price lower to 101.92 in late NY and then 101.87 in Asian morning.
Offers are now tipped at 102.00-10 whilst bids are located at 101.85, 101.75 and 101.65 with stops building up below 101.60.

WSJ reported that Syrian warplanes strike in western Iraq, killing at least 50 people. The strikes on Tuesday came as the Pentagon announced that the first 130 members of a potential 300 U.S. military advisers were in place in Baghdad to start assessing and improving the Iraqi army's ability to counter the gains of rebels led by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham.

Bloomberg news reported that Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko called for immediate talks with leaders in Russia, Germany and France after pro-Russian rebels shot down a government helicopter in violation of a cease-fire.

Yesterday statements from Fed's Dudley said 'can get the unemployment rate considerably lower without an inflation problem; mid-2015 interest rate hike sounds like reasonable, but forecasts often "go astray"; Puerto Rico banking sector doing well given difficult operating environment.'

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, Switzerland UBS consumption indicator, Italy retail sales, consumer confidence; U.K, CBI distributive trades, U.S. PCE, durable goods, GDP, and Markit service PMI (flash).

HK [email protected] 02:12 GMT June 25, 2014
Deepening crisis in Iraq
Reply   


And seems gold care not and so Cad$

dc CB 02:09 GMT June 25, 2014
Crude

“This is not a signal that the administration has changed its policy with regard to exports,” said David Goldwyn, an energy analyst and former head of the State Department’s energy program under Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

“This is a confirmation that these two requests are reclassified as products rather than crude oil. But the folks who want this to be a break in the dam are engaging in wishful thinking.”

The Commerce Department seemed to make that clear late Tuesday. “There has been no change in policy on crude oil exports,” a spokesman, Jim Hock, said.

Narrow Shift by Washington on Oil Exports

GVI Forex 02:00 GMT June 25, 2014
Crude

(Reuters) - Asian shares were on the back foot early on Wednesday, taking their cue from Wall Street as the deepening crisis in Iraq and a report that the U.S. could be loosening restrictions on crude exports triggered a rally in oil prices....

GVI Forex 00:45 GMT June 25, 2014
Crude

Markets may be waking up Iraq and that high prices are here to stay for awhile.

dc CB 00:43 GMT June 25, 2014
Crude

OH Janet "there is not inflation it's just NOISE" Yellen, hows $5 gas at the pump... gonna be pretty loud in the NOISE department.

dc CB 00:40 GMT June 25, 2014
Crude

Just as his predecessor, "I feel your Pain" slick Willy, quietly rearranged the US banking rules, so his buddies could rape the Middle Class, the O does the same in the energy sector.

Can't wait to hear his next campaining speach about how he wants to "help" the middle class.

GVI Forex Blog 00:40 GMT June 25, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Sterling, Aussie and kiwi retreat from recent highs

* BOE's Carney less hawkish than expected

* G3 currencies still stuck in a rut

FOREX -Sterling unsettled by less hawkish BOE, G3 currencies mark time

GVI Forex 00:01 GMT June 25, 2014
Crude
Reply   
As posted earlier by a GVI Forex member

Reportedly this is the reason for the $1+/bbl spike in crude on the reopen of electronic trading

Link

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
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