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Forex Forum Archive for 06/26/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Mtl JP 23:53 GMT June 26, 2014
morning

furthermore
Japan's unemployment eases to 3.5% in May from 3.6%
Tokyo June core consumer prices up 2.8% vs. year ago
Japan's core consumer prices rise 3.4% vs. year earlier
Japan's household spending falls 8% vs. year earlier

Mtl JP 23:50 GMT June 26, 2014
morning

Jun 26, 2014 (Reuters) - Japan's core consumer prices rose 3.4 percent in May from a year earlier, the fastest since April 1982, as an increase in the national sales tax continued to boost prices, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed on Friday.

The increase in the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile prices of fresh food but includes prices of oil products, matched the median estimate by economists. It followed a 3.2 percent rise in April.

The Bank of Japan has estimated that the sales tax hike - to 8 percent from 5 percent on April 1 - would add 1.7 percentage points to annual consumer inflation in April, and 2.0 points from the following month. The internal affairs ministry does not provide official estimates.
--
numbnuts Abe is all besides himself - thinking mass-printing fiat and rising prices is a sign of economic growth

syd sf 23:06 GMT June 26, 2014
morning
Reply   
this morning

gbp bots bought that small dip down to 97-98 they are offering @28/29 at moment .. overall they are short term long - so I'm not sure this is going above 35 in Asia anyway

eur bots are long and bidding 8-11 and offering 16 19 25 .. bids will cancel in an hour.

audnzd profit hit eurgbp stopped out

Gold long still but they offering 1318 1320 level today so I guess they are figuring it is just a range today and not a breakout.

you may notice I don't post on $yen - simply because I found it impossible to build anything that can trade it profitably over the long term -- that is just the nature of $yen.

BOL today and good trading.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:27 GMT June 26, 2014
Do You Have What It Takes to Be a Successful Trader

You will be surprised by what the authors of the guide discovered. I strongly recommend it.

Do You Have What It Takes to Be a Successful Trader

GVI Forex john 20:27 GMT June 26, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
FRIDAY JUNE 27, 2014
JP Unemployed Mar
JP Retail Sales yy Apr
JP Core CPI May  - BOJ Inflation Target
JP CPI
CH KOF Ind - Swiss Sentiment Index
GB GDP 1Q14 QQ - UK GDP Revision
GB GDP 1Q14 YY
US U Mich final Closely followed
MONDAY JUNE 30, 2014
US Chicago PMI
US Pending Homes Sales
TUESDAY JULY 1, 2014
AU- RBA Decision
EZ- Final Mfg PMI
GB- Mfg PMI
CA- Mfg PMI
US- Final Mfg PMI
US- Mfg PMI
WEDNESDAY JULY 2, 2014
US- ADP Private Jobs

GVI Forex john 20:22 GMT June 26, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



June 26, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, June 27. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- CPI, Retail Sales, GB- GDP, US- University of Michigan

  • Far East: JP- Unemployment, CPI, Retail Sales.
  • Europe: CH- KOF Index. GB- GDP. EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- University of Michigan, COT.


GVI Forex john 19:48 GMT June 26, 2014
Chart Points -- Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 18:55 GMT June 26, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


Mtl JP 18:37 GMT June 26, 2014
Why is Forex Trading Like World Cup Soccer (Part Two)

another way in which FX is like World Cup Soccer:

Ghana Soccer Stars Await $3 Million Plane Before Key Match - bbrg

..."Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama contacted the team and the arrangements for payment were made afterward, the association said in a statement on its website earlier today. The players requested the money in cash because many of them don’t have bank accounts in Ghana, Appiah said."...
-
Right. More probable is that the Black Stars do not trust Mahama gov't's cheque... aka when players stopped trusting Lehman.

But now the Black Stars will have to deal with explaining $100,000 wad of cash crossing customs rule of $10,000


GVI Forex Blog 18:18 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. Data Keeps Tightening Pressure Off Fed. UK GDP Revision Friday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- CPI, Retail Sales, GB- GDP, US- University of Michigan

The latest U.S. Core PCE deflator was a bit softer than forecast and thus keeps policy tightening pressures off the central bank. weekly Jobless data and Personal Income data (PCE deflator). The PCE Deflator is the Fed's preferred inflation. They target (floor and ceiling) the core PCE at 2.00%. We feel they would not mind to see Core PCE climb above and remain above that target in the near term. This is a key release.

U.S. Data Keeps Tightening Pressure Off Fed. UK GDP Revision Friday

Mtl JP 17:51 GMT June 26, 2014
Fed's James Bullard (moderate?)

Bullard: Not sure Fed knows how close goals are
Bullard: Confident Fed will act when needed
Bullard: Possible Fed could get behind the curve

PAR 17:46 GMT June 26, 2014
PPT
Reply   
PPT in action during half - time USA vs Germany . Stocks coming in the green soon.

dc CB 17:31 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

auctions DONE

Time for Pretty Windows and BOOOOOONUS

GVI Forex 17:09 GMT June 26, 2014
Fed's James Bullard (moderate?)
Reply   
Bullard: As Credit Markets Mend, Less Need For Very Low Rates

GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Poor auction

10-yr last 2.53%

GVI Forex john 17:03 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

7-yr 2.152%
bid-to-cover 2.44 vs. 2.60
1.7bp tail

Mtl JP 17:02 GMT June 26, 2014
Trade Union Rules
Reply   
In Russia synthetic lace panties will disappear from store shelves by July 1, 2014
-
good riddance

GVI Forex john 17:00 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

7-yr shortly wi 2.135

nw kw 16:52 GMT June 26, 2014
Low interest rates

M&A creation

nw kw 16:48 GMT June 26, 2014
cat
Reply   
cat banks in green u/c getting slamed

nw kw 16:44 GMT June 26, 2014
Low interest rates

TSX.-REPORTS UP FROM FED WILL HIKE interest/S&P REPORTS ALL TV ON W CUP,

PAR 16:12 GMT June 26, 2014
Low interest rates
Reply   
The failure of the FED ultra low interest rate policy is becoming clearer by the day . No economic growth , almost no job creation . A lot of bond issuance to buyback shares instead of making real economic investments .

" Insanity is doing the same thing over and over , and expecting a different result"

london red 15:55 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

JP, think the combination of softer than f/c pce which i was guilty of too, plus the soft consumer numbers, gave the perfect storm of low inflation and low growth. no fear factor just boring.

manila tom 15:49 GMT June 26, 2014
euro
Reply   
looks like euro can easily close above 1.36 again

Mtl JP 15:48 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

somewhat unusual to see stocks and interest rate go down at same time

london red 15:46 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

month end buying of eurgbp likely kicking in. likely to gain ground until early next week. worth buying on a pullback with a stop below todays low.

GVI Forex john 15:43 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


  • Markets remain in a mixed risk posture late in the European session, but the bias leans to risk-off.  Markets are cautious heading into the half-yearend.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have eased. Yields on the European periphery are mixed.
  • U.K. gilt  yields have eased.  There was disappointment that BOE Governor Carney restrictions on housing were less restrictive than expected. On Tuesday, he had rejected the possibility of a sharp policy tightening. We see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S. yields have eased as well. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.52%, -4 bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are closing lower. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Mtl JP 15:32 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. GDP

Paris ib 15:04 / unlike (most of current) PhD economists , retailers - many of who are far from holding PhD - understand what it takes to move product off their shelves.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:30 GMT June 26, 2014
Do You Have What It Takes to Be a Successful Trader
Reply   
You will be surprised by what the authors of the guide discovered. I strongly recommend it.

Do You Have What It Takes to Be a Successful Trader

Mtl JP 15:28 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

10-yr note closing in on offering a 2.500% yield

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:18 GMT June 26, 2014
Global Markets News

Following the weak personal spending numbers, two firms have trimmed their expectations for Q2 US GDP growth. Barclays adjusted its call to +2.9% from +4% in its prior view, to reflect a more modest rebound in Q2 consumption growth. TD Ameritrade cut its Q2 GDP view to +3.0% from +3.6% prior. TD said that while there is plenty of scope for upside surprise on the inventory build and exports, the risks tilt lower rather than higher. TTN

GVI Forex Blog 15:16 GMT June 26, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Following the weak personal spending numbers, two firms have trimmed their expectations for Q2 US GDP growth. Barclays adjusted its call to +2.9% from +4% in its prior view, to reflect a more modest rebound in Q2 consumption growth. TD Ameritrade cut its Q2 GDP view to +3.0% from +3.6% prior.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Reading the Tea Leaves in the May PCE and Personal Spending Data

Paris ib 15:04 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. GDP

nh - yes just looking around. It seems retail spending is being eyed as the culprit. Durable Goods must be having an impact too. The economic profession does not come out of this looking good.

Livingston nh 15:00 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. GDP

Spending has been slowing 2 mos in a row from March figures

Paris ib 14:56 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. GDP
Reply   
What's the deal with the falling Q2 GDP estimates? What are the factors being cited?

Mtl JP 14:44 GMT June 26, 2014
Canada

The Supreme Court of Canada has given aboriginal groups a major victory, expanding their rights to claim possession of ancestral lands and control those lands permanently.

“The right to control the land conferred by Aboriginal title means that governments and others seeking to use the land must obtain the consent of the Aboriginal title holders,” the court said in an 8-0 ruling written by Chief Justice Beverley McLachlin. “If the Aboriginal group does not consent to the use, the government’s only recourse is to establish that the proposed incursion on the land is justified” under the Constitution. more
-
usdcad steady

Mtl JP 14:36 GMT June 26, 2014
Canada
Reply   
The Supreme Court of Canada will rule Thursday in a landmark British Columbia case that is expected to be one of the most significant aboriginal law decisions in the court’s history.

The judgment will tackle the question of aboriginal title and will have big repercussions for years to come as industry, governments and aboriginal groups move to develop — or block — mining, energy and other resources or infrastructure like the Northern Gateway pipeline across contested lands throughout Canada.

GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT June 26, 2014
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
Reply   



ALERT
+110 vs. +100 exp vs. +113 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

nw kw 14:23 GMT June 26, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator

lumber pit opened up /rats/swiss week and ind./

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT June 26, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator

10-ye 2.525% -3.5bp

equity sell-off and benign Core PCE giving bond PRICES a bid. EURUSD testing below 1.3600.

Can we probe lower. Recent price action suggests it will be difficult.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:02 GMT June 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

This is today's forex outlook video posted on GVI Forex earlier and covers USDJPY. Note the 2 week pattern around 102 was broken yesterday (bearish).

If you want access to these on a regular basis send me an EMAIL



Daily Trading Outlook Video Update

My video covers a lot of ground today, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

Paris ib 13:58 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

JP - disagree. Printing isn't the key, international capital flows are. If we hit stops with the market net long USD/JPY this could accelerate.

Paris ib 13:56 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Still even that doesn't really explain the move. Maybe we have just reached a tipping point. I think U.S. GDP data yesterday is more important that pundits would have us believe. If the U.S. economy really starts to fall over a lot of people are going to rush back to their drawing boards and re-do their calculations. The asset allocation scramble could get interesting.

Mtl JP 13:54 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

usdyen testing the 101.50 level
odds are japan outprints the US
maybe worth a long here

GVI Forex Blog 13:54 GMT June 26, 2014
GVI Forex Data Outlook for June 27, 2014
Reply   
June 26, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, June 27. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- CPI, Retail Sales, GB- GDP, US- University of Michigan

GVI Forex Data Outlook for June 27, 2014

Paris ib 13:53 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

John - you can't be serious? That is the LAMEST explanation I have heard in a long time. Normally, in any case, it's half year WINDOW DRESSING which sends stocks up. At any rate I would say USD/JPY is the leader here. The funding currency, stopping positions, forcing closure of all those nice long margin positions in stocks.

Caribbean! Rafe... 13:52 GMT June 26, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
We are trading on monthly charts on a breach of 13590.

GVI Forex john 13:51 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Half year-end rebalancing flows blamed foe equity sell-off.

Paris ib 13:50 GMT June 26, 2014
IMF - USA

The IMF doesn't count. What counts is the American Ratings Agencies and the BIS. Anyhow dear old Christine is a bit of an insider, shoed into the job after the very interesting exit of DSK (with it appears a little help from her friend Sarkozy - who may or may not be a CIA asset). Oh the plot thickens.

PAR 13:44 GMT June 26, 2014
IMF - USA
Reply   
When is the IMF going to downgrade US growth again ?

houston st 13:43 GMT June 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD


ECB reportedly may not have reached lower bound on rates, will take six to nine months to assess impact of June policy changes - press- Lower limit on rates could reportedly be around -0.25% - Source TradeTheNews.com

Singapore SC 13:42 GMT June 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

any euro news out????

msa nsm 13:41 GMT June 26, 2014
Swing trades

Buy USDCAD
Entry: Target: 1.16 Stop:

msa nsm 12:20 GMT 06/26/2014
Buy USDCAD
Entry: Target: 1.6 Stop:

GL
_____________

Correction.

GVI Forex john 13:29 GMT June 26, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


June 26, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, June 27. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- CPI, Retail Sales, GB- GDP, US- University of Michigan

  • Far East: JP- Unemployment, CPI, Retail Sales.
  • Europe: CH- KOF Index. GB- GDP. EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- University of Michigan, COT.


manila tom 13:29 GMT June 26, 2014
buy gbpusd
Reply   
bought cable 1.7006, stop under 1.6970, target open
adding near 1.6990

Livingston nh 13:28 GMT June 26, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator

Probably just a coincidence but PCE started to decline when Ben put his monthly 45 bio of treasury (money) hoarding in place, held steady up until he relented and is now rising again

Mtl JP 13:24 GMT June 26, 2014
FED yakker ahead of schedule

like Lacker Bullard is currently a non-voting hawk

Mtl JP 13:23 GMT June 26, 2014
FED yakker ahead of schedule
Reply   
Bullard sees inflation over 2% in 2015
Bullard: Economy seems 'pretty good'
-
wasn't scheduled to yak till after noon.

GVI Forex 13:20 GMT June 26, 2014
Zero Gold Spreads
Reply   
This is an enticing promotion from one of our sponsors offering

Zero Gold Spreads

Mtl JP 13:15 GMT June 26, 2014
Caveat Emptor

solution to the debt and sovereign default disease spreading ?

"Puerto Rico paved the way to overhaul the finances of its power and transportation agencies, potentially saddling investors with losses on about $13.6 billion of debt."

Paris ib 13:06 GMT June 26, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator

Inflation is whatever the authorities want it to be. If the methodology for calculating inflation had not been changed inflation in the United States would currently be running at around 6% per annum. And if you adjusted nominal GDP by that inflation rate GDP data would be very, very different. That is there would not have been a 'recovery'.

Shadow Stats.

Mtl JP 12:59 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

the lowest yield Lew's 10-yr offered over the last 52 weeks is 2.4%. 3.06% on the high end

london red 12:56 GMT June 26, 2014
Swing trades

long wick on hourly candle suggests a top of sorts in place. fib at 17038 mubelow 200 hour (a little under 1.70) will be stops.

Mtl JP 12:54 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

usdyen taking it on the chin
support at 101.57-ish

Mtl JP 12:53 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims



10-yr's price action in picture

Mtl JP 12:46 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

10-yr paying 2.547% - ish

GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

Weekly Jobless claims data continues at reduced levels.




Click on chart for ten-year history

GVI Forex john 12:42 GMT June 26, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Personal Income Core PCE Deflator

U.S. CPI and Core PCE Deflator. Fed Targets PCE Deflator. Still below target,


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:35 GMT June 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EURUSD 1.36 trades, 6th day in a row

GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT June 26, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
312K vs. 310K exp. vs. 312K (r 314 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.571 vs. 2.570 exp. vs. 2.561 (r 2.559) prev.
Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT June 26, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator
Reply   



ALERT
Personal Income +0.40% v +0.40% exp v +0.30% prev
PCE Defl +1.50% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.40% prev.


RELEASE: Personal Income



TTN: Live News Special Offer

width="100" border="1" height="30">

msa nsm 12:24 GMT June 26, 2014
Swing trades

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

currently at August 2009 high. If we break that then i'm wrong and will opt out. All stops are in place. No trade is 100%. STOPS a must.

London Chris 12:24 GMT June 26, 2014
Swing trades

msa, you are trying to swim upstream

eurgbp driving the bus today.

Mtl JP 12:20 GMT June 26, 2014
Caveat Emptor
Reply   

Europe rethinks how to cure its debt hangover
- FT

Austria part of trend that could make restructurings more common

A government reneges on state guarantees. Losses are inflicted on bond holders. Other investors worry they might be next. .../..

msa nsm 12:20 GMT June 26, 2014
Swing trades

Buy USDCAD
Entry: Target: 1.6 Stop:

GL

msa nsm 12:19 GMT June 26, 2014
Swing trades

msa nsm 09:08:36 GMT - 06/23/2014
msa nsm 12:57 GMT June 20, 2014
Swing trades : Reply

Entry: Target: Stop: 1.0670

msa nsm 08:32 GMT 06/20/2014
Buy USDCAD
Entry: 1.0820 Target: 1.0955 Stop: Daily close

GL

If supp. breaks, look for 1.0740.

No 100% trade, either way after data. Lets see n GL.
__________________

Tiny order add at 1.0740.
_________

Stop 1.0670
________________

If stopped looking to re-entry at 1.0580/60 for much higher targets. GL
_______________
Long term target set and all orders in place. Will revisit the trade last qtr. This implies Cable is heading much lower to with my one cent view. GL

NZDUSD stopped and rentered at 8769 with tight stop, still holding AUDUSD and CHFJPY shorts. Gl

Caribbean! Rafe... 11:59 GMT June 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Jay// Would it help to refer to my post a few days back re: euro.

Today's low 13590 IMO.

We are in the last few days of June so would not be surprised to see increased momentum going into next month.

We are in hurricane season.

Please forgive my dry humor but please do not forget to prepare yourselves because IMHO the censored is gonna hit the Fib Fan this season.

Mtl JP 11:46 GMT June 26, 2014
IRAQ

so write it off to a carry-over from other times as an error in judgement and note that Gold and Brent currently say so

HK [email protected] 11:41 GMT June 26, 2014
An estimated 70 percent of these lie in Basra governorate in the south of Iraq.
Reply   


Other areas mostlikely limited effect

GVI Forex 11:31 GMT June 26, 2014
IRAQ
Reply   
It is again being ignored but it in other times it would be seen as a key event risk:

Militants take Iraqi gas field town, president calls parliament session

Mtl JP 11:26 GMT June 26, 2014
Bank of England

in the interest of a more complete picture that HUD

is a continuation of of an announcement on April 2, 2013:
Obama administration pushes banks to make home loans to people with weaker credit in washingtonpost

"The Obama administration is engaged in a broad push to make more home loans available to people with weaker credit, an effort that officials say will help power the economic recovery".../..
--
Sounded then and sounds today like smart thing "to make more home loans available to people with weaker credit", does it not ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:20 GMT June 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Tug-of-war USD day so far with EUR the underperformer and USD down vs. all but the common currency.

Key event risk is next up with US PCE and market will be hyper-sensitive to misses in both directions.

EURUISD has yet to test 1.36, which has traded 5 days in a row coming into today so watch it today as it needs to stay above it for this retracement attempt to have legs. Upside capped as long as sub-1.3650.

Mtl JP 11:09 GMT June 26, 2014
Bank of England

for contrast:
HUD KICKS OFF NATIONAL HOMEOWNERSHIP MONTH
"Preserving the Dream" is theme for month-long recognition
- June 5, 2014

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) this week kicked off National Homeownership Month by recognizing the critical role owning a home plays in communities across America. “Preserving the Dream” is the theme of this month-long recognition and it reinforces the Obama Administration’s work to build a more durable and fair housing finance system that promotes the American Dream of homeownership while preventing the unsustainable forms of home purchase that fueled the recent housing crisis.

When President Obama took office in 2009, the nation’s housing market was in free-fall, leaving many families trapped and anxious about their mortgages. Today, the housing market is in recovery .../..

Hong Kong AceTrader 10:33 GMT June 26, 2014
AceTrader June 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Jun 2014 09:31GMT

GBP/USD - Cable briefly rose to intra-day high of 1.7030 after the BoE Financial Stability Report were released.

Statement from BoE Financial Stability Report, quote:
1. " to set from october loan to income ratio at 4.5 for 85 pct of new mortgages".
2. "new cap would apply to lenders who grant more than 100 mln stg of home loans a year".
3. "home loans granted from today but completed from october will count towards total volume for setting planned cap".
4. "toughens affordability tests for new home loans from thursday by taking into account potentially higher interest rates".
5. "most lenders already operate within the lti cap".
6. "does not believe that household indebtedness poses an immediate threat to stability, measures aimed to insure against this risk".
7. "eight top uk lenders must maintain core equity ratio of 7 pct, leverage
ratio of 3 pct".
8. "sets first formal countercyclical capital buffer for banks at 0 pct".

Earlier, BoE's Carney begins his news conference n says, quote:
'the biggest risk to the UK economy relate to the housing mkt;
it is not the FPCI's role to control house prices;
the FPC is concerned that a marked loosening in underwriting standards n increase in household debt cud pose major risk;
today's measures shud not constrain current housing activity, actions will bite if sustained momentum in housing mkt;
these measures will prevent slide into riskier lending, higher indebtedness; monetary policy does not need to be diverted to address a sector-specific risk in the housing mkt;
today's actions don't affect the central outlook for the economy;
today's actions are less likely to have implications for monetary policy path, which anticipates limited n gradual rate rises;
we expect the momentum in the housking mkt to continue for the next year or so;
this is the limit of our tolerance on the housing mkt, if we need to recalibrate, we will.'

GVI Forex Blog 10:15 GMT June 26, 2014 Reply   
EUR/USD currency volatility matched all-time lows since the Euro's 1999 inception at 4.55%. Levels little changed in listless trading. EUR/USD hugs the 1.36 handle for the 8th straight session

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE FPC report to bring added importance as it could address housing concerns

GVI Forex john 10:01 GMT June 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. EUR weaker almost universally (CHF doesn't count!). It is still below its 20-day moving averages in most key relationships.




Mtl JP 09:57 GMT June 26, 2014
Barclays

GVI Forex john 08:54 / The mandate of the Federal Reserve
- is to serve all the American people
- is to help ensure that everyone has the opportunity to work hard and build a better life
- is to ensure that inflation remains in check and doesn't undermine the benefits of a growing economy
- must safeguard the financial system - Janet "noise" Yellen, October 9, 2013

Which, do you think, would always ahead of any other(s) ?

nw kw 09:48 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp

eurgbp rally///gbp/chf monthly is flipping next zone up to 1.8 from 1.5

GVI Forex 09:43 GMT June 26, 2014
Bank of England

First policy tightening step by Carney. GBP higher...


BOE: Lenders Should Have No More Than 15% Of Mortages At LTI Of 4.5 And Above
BOE Targets Mortgages Of 4.5 Times Borrower's Income And Higher
BOE Sets Limits On Size Of Mortage Loans Relative To Incomes

london red 09:30 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp

17337 and 17120 unless weekly close under 16950. the fib was for eurgbp rally

nw kw 09:27 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp

red- whut 50% fid do you have /1.7295 so target 1.8 in bigger time frame ap year end

nw kw 09:11 GMT June 26, 2014
Bank of England

Carney as good of the fed now/must have a good broker to

nw kw 09:09 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp

using usd/cad for gbp/cad so us is a bit softer =1.805 g/u

nw kw 09:03 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp



xaugbp can fall to support but which one

GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT June 26, 2014
Bank of England
Reply   
Gov Carney Speaks @ 09:30 GMT Financial Stability Conference

Webcast

london red 09:01 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp

I dont have flow data but as mentioned earlier i noticed an increased frequency of upticks in cable. This may have been down to position taking ahead of carney shortly. But stops were run above the 200 hour ma and 1.70. Anything above 17032 stands in the way of test of highs. Eurgbp 50% of rally at 7996

nw kw 08:55 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp

Furthermore none of this does anything to solve the underlying problems, which is a lack of supply in London and the South East. Given EU projections point to the UK population growing by 8 million people during the next 15 years, a significant chunk of which will end up in London, we will need to see an aggressive building plan to stabilise the housing market."

hk GBPUSD 08:55 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp

GBP news????????????

GVI Forex john 08:54 GMT June 26, 2014
Barclays

PAR- No bank has a "special relationship" with the U.S. government! Just ask BOA, JPM or C for starters. The government seems to be trying to run the industry into the ground.

GVI Forex Blog 08:50 GMT June 26, 2014
Focus Today on U.S. Data and How They Fit Into the Larger Picture
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Jobless Claims, Personal Income & PCE Deflator, 7-yr Auction

Thursday sees U.S. weekly Jobless data and Personal Income data (PCE deflator). The PCE Deflator is the Fed's preferred inflation. They target (floor and ceiling) the core PCE at 2.00%. We feel they would not mind to see Core PCE climb above and remain above that target in the near term. This is a key release.

Focus Today on U.S. Data and How They Fit Into the Larger Picture

GVI Forex john 08:37 GMT June 26, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • Markets are in a mixed risk posture early in the  European session  Markets are cautious heading into the half-yearend.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have eased. Yields on the European periphery are mixed.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are steady.  BOE Governor Carney speaks again today. On Tuesday, he rejected the possibility of a sharp policy tightening. We see only a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S. yields are steady as well. The U.S. 10-yr is pivoting the 2.60% line.The U.S. 10-yr is 2.56%, 0 bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex 08:34 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp

Following the recent focus on the Bank of England’s MPC, today sees the spotlight shift to the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC). The publication of the Financial Stability Report this morning takes on added importance as the recommendations of the latest FPC meeting will be published at the same time. Following the introduction of the Mortgage Market Review, the markets will be watching to see whether the FPC put forward other recommendations to address possible exuberance at the top end of the housing market (mostly targeted at London). Some lenders have already announced limits on high value mortgage multiples, although recent hints from the Chancellor and the Governor suggest other measures may be forthcoming. While not a substitute for monetary policy, at the margin macroprudential action may temp

From Lloyds Zbank a Daily Economic Outlook

london red 08:28 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp

some gbp pre fsr duly noted and stop down to entry, gives me the 200 hour ma just.

PAR 08:02 GMT June 26, 2014
Barclays
Reply   
Could Barclays like BNP Paribas face a $10 billion US fine , or does the UK have indeed a special relationship with the USA .

london red 07:57 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp

cable sold 6997 stop over 17011.

Paris ib 07:55 GMT June 26, 2014
Statistics and Misreporting
Reply   
"Total employment in May surprised by contracting 4.8k. Also Apr was revised to +10.3k from an original estimate
of 14.2k."

Mining is cratering and the Australians are hoping home building will take up the slack. Real estate has been doing well but with household debt at record levels it remains to be seen how much more growth they can squeeze out of that.

Australian employment

Paris ib 07:52 GMT June 26, 2014
I saw the headlines on job vacancies in Australia and thought OK, went to check out the details and I was a bit surprised to find that total employment shrank !!?

"Total employment in May surprised by contracting 4.8k. Also Apr was revised to +10.3k from an original estimate"

What's with the headline reporting?

Who cares when the news is crap we'll just report what we want. Same story with U.S. GDP and Durable Goods - both terrible. But we are told don't worry GDP is old data and Durable Goods only shrank because of reduced military spending. Yeah right but when your entire economy is basically a military machine (U.S. take a bow) then you can not just discount reduced military spending as irrelevant to the economy. What I loved most about U.S. GDP was the 8 percent fall in exports.... I guess Kerry strong arming U.S. allies to buy all those defective fighter jets won't show up in the data for a while.

Australian employment

Caribbean! Rafe... 07:48 GMT June 26, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
I was looking for 13641 daily high and 13590 daily low for today's EUR/USD range.

I got my 13641 now I need my 13590.

Tomorrow is lovely Friday boys! I get to burn the midnight oil!!!

PAR 07:47 GMT June 26, 2014
Us Weather
Reply   
The last time there were no tropical systems during May and June in the Atlantic was 10 years ago in 2004.

PAR 07:37 GMT June 26, 2014
Without the FED $ 5 trillion balance sheet -It could have been worse
Reply   
U.S. Economy Shrank in First Quarter by Most in Five Years


Gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annualized rate, more than forecast and the worst reading since the same three months in 2009, after a previously reported 1 percent drop, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. It marked the biggest downward revision from the agency’s second GDP estimate since records began in 1976. The revision reflected a slowdown in health care spending.

london red 07:26 GMT June 26, 2014
gbp
Reply   
carney speaks late uk morning (fsr) expected to provide details on cooling housing market. preferable to be short cable/gbp ahead of conference then look to long cable c. 16910-30 eurgbp short c. 8050-64.

Amman Amman 05:49 GMT June 26, 2014
AceTrader Jun 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

I think Nikkei will get more points for this month.

Akram Majed

GVI Forex Blog 04:27 GMT June 26, 2014 Reply   
(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR-MAY JOB VACANCIES Q/Q: 2.5% V 2.6% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY DEPT STORE SALES Y/Y: +0.8% V -1.4% PRIOR; DISCOUNT STORE SALES Y/Y: +1.2% V -4.1% PRIOR ***Index Snapshot (as of 03

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: PBoC skips daily liquidity drain for the first time in about 4 months - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:26 GMT June 26, 2014 Reply   
A revision in the US GDP has brought it from 0.1% growth to a huge 2.9% contraction now.

Morning Briefing : 26-Jun-2014 -0325 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:19 GMT June 26, 2014
AceTrader Jun 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

26 Jun 2014 01:49GMT

USD/JPY - ... The greenback tumbled to 101.64 on Wednesday due to dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP n durable goods data, however, short-covering lifted price briefly to 101.87 in late NY.
Offers are now tipped at 101.90-00 and more at 102.10-20.
On the downside, sizeable stops at 101.60 are in focus but some demand is located at 101.45/40 and more at 101.20-10.

Nikkei-225 index rose by 48 points to 15315, following the rise in U.S. stock markets. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday that deflation has ended and will be thwarted by new government policies designed to encourage business expansion.

Last night statement from the U.S. White House said, quote:
'Obama is mindful of not putting in U.S. companies at a competitive disadvantage when mulling further sanctions against Russia over Ukraine; sanctions regime against Russia will be most effective if implemented with allies in Europe who are among Russia's strongest trading partners.'
'Obama called Italy's PM to discuss Ukraine on Wednesday.'


Data to be released on Thursday:

France business climate, U.K. BoE financial stability report, U.S. jobless claims, personal consumption, personal income, core PCE, PCE index.

Mtl JP 01:38 GMT June 26, 2014
usd/jpy

why help from BoJ and why not from the 10-yr ?

tokyo ginko 00:54 GMT June 26, 2014
usd/jpy

agreed, must hold above 101.65/70 , critical level

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:49 GMT June 26, 2014
usd/jpy

102 is very important as a 10 day pattern trading around it was broken on Wednesday - this often leads to a directional move so something to watch for unless 102 trades again.

This runs contrary to a market that still holds out hope for 105+ but hard getting there without help from the BoJ

syd sf 00:35 GMT June 26, 2014
morning

Bot buying some audnzd back - hold rest for target.

 




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