Forex Forum Archive for 06/29/2014

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:57 GMT June 29, 2014
Do You Have What It Takes to Be a Successful Trader

sf, we found some of the insights useful and why we offer it as a free benefit.

Mtl JP 21:48 GMT June 29, 2014
INFLATION

Livingston nh 16:04 // the BIS (see link below) claims that "“Many central banks faced unexpected disinflationary pressures in the past year, which represent a negative surprise for those in debt and raise the specter of deflation,” the BIS said. “However, risks of widespread deflation appear very low: central banks see inflation returning to target over time and longer-term inflation expectations remaining well anchored.”

(Credit + Leverage + Debt Instruments) / Time = Instability
According to the BIS that will "require deft timing and skillful navigation of economic, financial and political factors,” according to the BIS. But... there is always that but (i.e on the other hand)
“the transition is likely to be complex and bumpy, regardless of communication efforts.”

In other words the BIS is displaying low confidence in the overlords' spreading of bullsh!t effectiveness of spreading bullsh!t.

I have a Qtn for you NH: How long, do u think, before Janet "noise" Yellen will renege on her "not even 25bps hike before a year"

syd sf 21:33 GMT June 29, 2014
Do You Have What It Takes to Be a Successful Trader

I actually find this pretty offensive.

First the data is from 2009/2010 - market has changed alot since then.

But what is really bad is they know that people who deposit less than $5000 basically are extremely inclined to lose their money at a rate well above experienced traders - yet they open these accounts at will .. and not only that but they allow people to trade on credit cards - which feeds this level of losing trading which increases their revenue - because they offer that level such low quality spreads.

If someone were looking to sue that Broker I would imagine it would be extremely hard to defend no matter what disclaimers they place on their application forms.

Mtl JP 21:17 GMT June 29, 2014
The BIS says...
Reply   
Central Banks Face Bumpy Road to Normalization, BIS Says
- bbrg
--
what else did the BIS expect - perfection from the meddlers ?

On the other hand , BIS is already pre-emptively excusing the meddling policymakers' mistakes, errors and incompetence.

GVI Forex john 18:34 GMT June 29, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

Monday June 30, 2014
JP Ind Out Mayp yy
DE RetSls Key consumer data
EZ flash HICP  Critical for ECB Decision
US Pending Homes  Predictor of Existing Homes Sales

Tuesday July 1, 2014
JP Tankan (large Mfg)  Top Business Survey
CN NBS PMI  Current Economic Measure
CN HSBC final PMI  Current Economic Measure
AU Australia Reserve Bank  No Change seen
DE unem Kchg & unempl rate  Key Jobs  Measure
DE MFG PMI final  Current Economic Measure
EZ MFG PMI final  Current Economic Measure
GB MFG PMI  Current Economic Measure
CA RBC-Markit PMI Current Economic Measure
US MKT MFG PMI final Current Economic Measure
US ISM MFG PMI Current Economic Measure

Wednesday July 2, 2014
US ADP Jobs Uneven Predictor of Non-Farm Payrolls
FRB Yellen Key Speech

Thursday July 3, 2014
AU Retail Sales
DE SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
EZ SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
GB SVC PMI Current Economic Measure
EZ Europe Cntl Bank Rates Seem Steady
US Initial Claims & Cont Claims Current View
US Payrolls % Jobless %  Key Measure of Growth
US Markit SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
US ISM SVC PMI Current Economic Measure

Friday July 4, 2014
US Holiday

Livingston nh 16:04 GMT June 29, 2014
INFLATION

fwiw -- short term consideration inflation, GDP, Stox/bonds

The Fed has been de-hoarding via the TAPER -- balance sheet in Q1 grew by ~204 bio, Q2 grew by ~141 -- BUT reserve balances increased by 362 bio in Q1 and by only 17 bio in Q2 /// excess reserves FELL in Q1 by 158 bio and ROSE 124 bio in Q2 -- in fact, most of the decline was in Jan and Feb

Mar, Apr and May inflation figs have been running higher, financial instruments have been stronger despite this, Q1 GDP was abysmal (but March was strongest)

Money didn't move in real economy in Q1 - drawdown of excess reserves into reserve balances (stox meltdown) -- Q2 has been the opposite as nearly all of Fed balance sheet has moved into excess reserves which explains the stox/bonds rally and if GDP is to grow then money in reserve balance must move Faster which leads to inflation

As Fed balance sheet growth slows the available funds to the economy needs to work harder -- in Q3 we shall see whose OX gets gored as the funds are reapportioned - the economy or stox/bonds ??

Bet inflation

GVI Forex john 16:03 GMT June 29, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


June 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, June 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output, DE- Retail Sales. EZ- Flash HICP, CA- GDP, US- Chicago PMI, Pending Homes

• Far East: JP- Industrial Output.
• Europe: DE- Retail Sales. EZ- Flash HICP.
• North America: CA- GDP, US- Chicago PMI, Pending Homes.

GVI Forex Blog 15:47 GMT June 29, 2014
Monday is Half-Yearend. Very Busy Week in store Ahead of Fiday Holiday in U.S.
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: : JP- Industrial Output, DE- Retail Sales. EZ- Flash HICP, CA- GDP, US- Chicago PMI, Pending Homes

Trading should gat off to a cautious start this week due to the half-yearend. Otherwise this is a week cock full of major news data released before a major U.S. holiday on Friday. The end of last week saw final June University of Michigan Survey which outperformed expectations.

Monday is Half-Yearend. Very Busy Week in store Ahead of Fiday Holiday in U.S.

nw kw 15:00 GMT June 29, 2014
Britain

gbp flaky concept

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/29/bank-england-mpc-trigger-happy-interest-rates-uk-economy-flaky-concept

nw kw 14:22 GMT June 29, 2014
INFLATION

Mtl JP 22:16 GMT 06/28/2014 - My Profile
does this make trade-able sense

is there a time bo-om

nw kw 13:59 GMT June 29, 2014
INFLATION

In Canada, the most important categories in the CPI basket are Shelter, so usa consumer feel's seized, pullback severe as 2007 reported /

PAR 07:29 GMT June 29, 2014
INFLATION
Reply   
« I do not think it is an exaggeration to
say history is largely a history of inflation,
usually inflations engineered by
governments for the gain of governments.
»
Friedrich August von Hayek

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-26/how-to-beat-inflation-skip-kids-cars-getting-old.html?alcmpid=wealth

Some less avoidable expenses, like water and sewer bills, have doubled since 2000. Gasoline is up 183 percent. So while the CPI is up 47 percent since 2000, the institute’s Everyday Price Index (EPI) is up 69 percent. Unlike the CPI, which tracks more than 200 categories from breakfast cereal to funeral expenses, the Everyday index includes only the prices of frequently purchased goods and services.


« By a continuing process of inflation,
government can confiscate, secretly
and unobserved, an important part of
the wealth of their citizens. »
John Maynard Keynes

nw kw 06:02 GMT June 29, 2014
Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions

market stomped on us are saving more but can change

nw kw 05:59 GMT June 29, 2014
Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions

ideas every week gov, are traders now and selling a weak usd but its not

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:48 GMT June 29, 2014
Do You Have What It Takes to Be a Successful Trader

You will be surprised by what the authors of the guide discovered. I strongly recommend it.

Do You Have What It Takes to Be a Successful Trader