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Forex Forum Archive for 06/30/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Blog 23:56 GMT June 30, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index falls to seven-week lows

* Euro resilient, hits six-week highs despite low CPI

* RBA rate decision and China PMI in focus -]]

FOREX-Dollar starts new quarter on the backfoot, Aussie eyes RBA

Brock Thor 23:37 GMT June 30, 2014
GBP/USD
Reply   
Closed long +66.7 pips looks to consolidate now.

Closed two Gbp/Jpy one +11.7... 2nd trade -3.3.
After that gbp/yen nose dive hung in for tiny profit.

syd sf 21:05 GMT June 30, 2014
morning
Reply   
I have quite alot of orders from my bots at the moment

gbp I have some stops @18-19 from range stuff that sold lower

but as price moved up - another short term bot offered @15

so it seems for now 00-25 is prob short term range.

eurusd - similar -- some bids 87-89 offers 97-00 and stops @05

eurcad has been offering @12-13-14 -- probably bit later this can get up to 30ish once the short term selling stuff expires.

AudNzd - see both sides here as well bids 20 offers 80 -- with RBA later bit hard to suggest this cross though.

Gold saw models buying @14 @22 @23 -- looking for the breakout that came and went last wed/thursday it seems.

BOL today.

GVI Forex Blog 20:46 GMT June 30, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
Markets were again lacklustre, EUR/USD strength one notable feature. US data was mixed, with Chicago PMI disappointing but pending home sales beating estimates. Fed dove Williams said recent data was consistent with a rate hike in H2 2015, later than the market's current pricing of Q2 2015. The S&P500 is currently unchanged.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 20:35 GMT June 30, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
Tuesday July 1, 2014
JP  Tankan (Large Mfg)  Top Business Survey
CN NBS PMI  Current Economic Measure
CN HSBC final PMI  Current Economic Measure
AU Australia Reserve Bank  No Change seen
DE unem Kchg & unempl rate  Key Jobs  Measure
DE MFG PMI final  Current Economic Measure
EZ MFG PMI final  Current Economic Measure
GB MFG PMI  Current Economic Measure
CA RBC-Markit PMI Current Economic Measure
US MKT MFG PMI final Current Economic Measure
US ISM MFG PMI Current Economic Measure

Wednesday July 2, 2014
US ADP Jobs Uneven Predictor of Non-Farm Payrolls
FRB Yellen Key Speech

Thursday July 3, 2014
AU Retail Sales
DE SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
EZ SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
GB SVC PMI Current Economic Measure
EZ Europe Cntl Bank Rates Seem Steady
US Initial Claims & Cont Claims Current View
US Payrolls % Jobless %  Key Measure of Growth
US Markit SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
US ISM SVC PMI Current Economic Measure

Friday July 4, 2014
US Holiday


GVI Forex john 20:12 GMT June 30, 2014
German Retail Sales Miss. EZ HICP Remains Subdued. Pressure on ECB for More Ease to Mount

GM recall goes far beyond a "Kitchen Sink" action.

GVI Forex john 19:43 GMT June 30, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Blog 19:34 GMT June 30, 2014
German Retail Sales Miss. EZ HICP Remains Subdued. Pressure on ECB for More Ease to Mount
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Tankan Survey, CN- PMIs, AU- RBA. EZ, DE, FR, GB, CH- PMI, DE- Jobs, CA- MKT PMI, US- PMIs

This is an extremely busy week heading into the Friday U.S. Independence Day holiday. Early on Tuesday the Japanese Quarterly Tankan Survey will be released. Tuesday also sees a slew of Manufacturing PMI reports and German Employment data.

German Retail Sales Miss. EZ HICP Remains Subdued. Pressure on ECB for More Ease to Mount

GVI Forex john 19:25 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR COT Positions
Reply   
I post this and a number of other charts every Friday. You can see how position changes follow the spot vs. 20-day relationship. Personally, I don't like selling the EUR under present circumstances. To me its like swimming upstream. Click on the chart for a different and more detailed view.




Click on chart for COT Details

KL KL 19:18 GMT June 30, 2014
SELL GBPUSD
Reply   
Sold gbpusd...1.7109...and this is relentless.....DYOR...DFM..IMVHO...hope to cover under 1.71 or chase it to the sky????....LOL

GVI Forex john 18:49 GMT June 30, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


GVI Forex john 18:34 GMT June 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.520%

GVI Forex Blog 18:28 GMT June 30, 2014 Reply   
June 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Tankan Survey, CN- PMIs, AU- RBA. EZ, DE, FR, GB, cH- PMI, DE- Employment, CA- MKT PMI, US- PMIs

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 1, 2014

GVI Forex john 18:24 GMT June 30, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


June 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Tankan Survey, CN- PMIs, AU- RBA. EZ, DE, FR, GB, cH- PMI, DE- Employment, CA- MKT PMI, US- PMIs

  • Far East: JP- Tankan Survey, CN- PMIs, AU- RBA.
  • Europe: EZ, DE, FR, GB, cH- PMI, DE- Employment, EZ- Unemployment.
  • North America: CA- MKT PMI, US- PMIs, Construction Spending, API Energy.


GVIForex Jay Meisler 18:03 GMT June 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

As I posted here earlier:

- How the market ends the week more important than how it starts out
- Chance eurusd could run stops, especially if flash HICP ticks up as expected
- If eurusd runs stops, then there is a chance of a Monday Effect week if Monday's high becomes the high for the week
- Watch 1.3650 and more important 1.3675
- US 10-year 2.50% yield may hold a key to how it trades
- Month/quarter/half year end flows to dominate Monday

dc CB 17:50 GMT June 30, 2014
Global Markets News

Today's RevRepo...Window Day
$339.481 BILLION

NYFED

Mtl JP 17:48 GMT June 30, 2014
Global Markets News

Williams is a Janet "noise" Yellen shill

Livingston nh 17:16 GMT June 30, 2014
Global Markets News

JP -- Williams LINK Straw Man Arguments -- no specifics

SaaR KaL 17:12 GMT June 30, 2014
EURUSD Avg High and Low

Gold and Silver
Sell till Oct/2014
That was a dead cat bounce

Mtl JP 17:01 GMT June 30, 2014
Global Markets News

according to non-voting dove John Williams "Fed’s Williams on Accommodative Stance: “The Bottom Line is, it has Worked”

NY JM 16:56 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

Don't draw conclusions from end of the half yearend price action although USD is closing at or around its lows for the month.

GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT June 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


  • Markets remain in a mixed risk posture to start the new week.  Most traders are headed into the second half of the year cautiously.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. Yields on the European periphery have turned higher.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are up. The BOE consistently has rejected  the risk of a sharp policy tightening. We see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S. yields remain low. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.53%, 0 bp.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares are up slightly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Paris ib 15:50 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

That's the general idea. But it's only half the picture. There also seems to be a project to lower wages, destroy living standards, increase the pressure of so-called 'free trade' on local industries. No-one wins. At least not at the popular level.

PAR 15:48 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

The Rich get Richer .

kl shawn 15:47 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

john, so most like to become gamblers it seems as I see this too many many times on the forum, or is it a case of repeating the same mistakes?

Paris ib 15:47 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

But worse still is the extremely favourable tax and regulation regime allowed to U.S. Foundations (Bill Gates for example). That is a scam of the highest order. It makes me laugh when the Estate Tax is debated in the U.S., you gotta be kidding me. Debate that and not Foundations? What a hoot.

SaaR KaL 15:45 GMT June 30, 2014
EURUSD Avg High and Low



EURAUD
Very Bullish Long term

Paris ib 15:42 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

Because corporations control governments. That is also why there is a push to LOWER corporate taxation even as other taxes and charges rise (under austerity). That is not just a U.S. phenomenon, it's world wide.

GVI Forex john 15:40 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

As I said earlier, its dangerous to sell When a pair flips to above its 20-day moving average. You are swimming against the tide. It can work but the odds are against you and forex trading is a game of odds.

PAR 15:37 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

Why are US citizens taxed on their global income and Us corporations not ?

SaaR KaL 15:37 GMT June 30, 2014
EURUSD Avg High and Low



GBPUSD should start a south bound for 1.68 area...Maybe in a week
might play yoyo for a while
CHart is avg High Low

kl shawn 15:36 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

with ultra low interest rates and usd keeps tanking i can understand your point Paris ib

Livingston nh 15:33 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

ok

Paris ib 15:32 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

Nope. And no evidence that the profits held overseas by U.S. corporations is ever likely to head home.

Livingston nh 15:31 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

ib - you reference capital outflows - do you have info on overseas US corporate cash?

kl shawn 15:31 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

fs, you would be very lucky to even see 1.3650, no chance

Paris ib 15:30 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

It's a mind set. On average the real economic situation of the United States is not understood. The fact that the Credit Agencies are American helps. The financial media is mostly Anglo-Saxon and there is a widespread refusal to face facts.

kl fs 15:29 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

i think make it simple
if you see 1.3650-1.3670, just hit buy

NY JM 15:28 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

As long as inflation is tame there is no I incentive to have a strong currency.

US is happy to see the USD trade soft but don't get carried away as this could just be the result of month/quarter/half yearend flows.

SaaR KaL 15:27 GMT June 30, 2014
EURUSD Avg High and Low
Reply   


for an average trader
this chart to make general decision

bali sja 15:26 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

Paris ib, in other forums I can understand, but here I can never understand it

Paris ib 15:26 GMT June 30, 2014
Global Markets News

And there was no benefit to the USD from this positive news.

GVI Forex Blog 15:25 GMT June 30, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The pending home sales index climbed 6.1% m/m, crushing expectations and marking the biggest advance in the series since April 2010. The y/y component is still in negative territory, but this year is rapidly catching up with the very good results seen in 2013

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: 2014 At the Halfway Mark

Paris ib 15:23 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

sja - it's not just this forum. Other forums are the same way. Everyone buying the USD on the dips.... because of course at some point there is going to be this huge wave of new capital inflows favouring the USD. Why that would be, especially when the USD's role as the international reserve currency is so terribly tarnished, is never explained. I mean I know the USD was the reserve currency since the GBP was ditched... but things change. You move on.

SaaR KaL 15:19 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link



I will Buy the USDJPY this week
with dips

bali sja 15:18 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link

Paris ib, and the funny thing is GV/GVI is full of those hard believers
usd is like boiling a frog

Paris ib 15:16 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
Reply   
The USD is the United State's weak link. It's currently under pressure against pretty much everything: JPY, EUR, AUD, GBP... and yet the pundits keep assuring us that the USD will rally, that capital will start flowing into the U.S...... and the whole retail market follows. JPY shorts are still way up there. This is a faith based market. I find that incredibly weird.

Caribbean! Rafe... 15:16 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR

14072-13990-13908-13826-13744-13662

=Average(13744+13662)=13703, 13682 etc.

bali sja 15:14 GMT June 30, 2014
usd
Reply   
decade of the dollar, yeah rite LOL

london red 15:11 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR

JP, 60, 50, 40 with a trail, but lets get back below 200 day first or its toast and 13725/30 beckons.

SaaR KaL 15:11 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR



SOme Longs USDCHF

bali sja 15:09 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR

forget about TP worry about SL hit first

SaaR KaL 15:08 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR



Sounds Like you are right Red

Mtl JP 15:06 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR

red 15:02 --> targets _ _ ? tia

Mtl JP 15:03 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales

dc CB from ZH re home sales is actually down y o y, 8th in a row.
much more telling statistic since the mom increase was probably a seasonal thingie

re reporting percentage: if I was selling one unit and then sold 2 units next day , would a 100% increase in sales impress u ?

bali sja 15:03 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR

usual top pickers on a range breaking day like this will make me smile

GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT June 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yt 2.525% barely changed.

Monthend and waiting for Jobs data on Thursday.


bali sja 15:02 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

woohoo, so happy to see gbpusd hit 1.71
end of june, what a good month

london red 15:02 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR

short euro 90. stop 13705
cable to short 17110/20 stop over 35

SaaR KaL 15:02 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map



EURUSD he is a sell
Yellow is mean (Avg)

Caribbean! Rafe... 14:57 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR
Reply   
Waiting for a good chance to short euro. entered at 13681 but momentum is too strong hence exited it at break even, might enter at 13710 level if it slows down but we will have spectacular moves this week.

bali sja 14:56 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

dont tell me i did not warn you all about 1.35-1.36 buying zone

London Misha 14:51 GMT June 30, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Open & Close White Marubozo and Bullish Engulfing Pattern with 1st close over key Fibs at 1.3644 on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - 1st close below Long MA & recent Uptrend. Tests key 50% Fib at 101.17 on Daily Chart. Dead Cross of Short MA down through Short/Medium MA.
GBPUSD - Indecisive Spinning Top as tests 2014 high (1.7062) again!
USDCHF - 1st close below recent 50% Fib (0.8926) & new Jun low on Daily Chart! Possible Double Top!
EURGBP - Bullish Harami & still possible Double Bottom on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Either a Triple Top as tests 2014 high (0.9462) or Ascending Triangle, all on Daily Chart!
USDINR - Open & Close Black Marubozo & still chance of Descending Triangle using Fibs (60.07-60.09) & Medium MA, all on Daily Chart!
USDZAR - Now a Bearish Harami on Daily Chart & still uses recent AP Lower Tine support with a possible Reverse H+S.
USDBRL - Support bank 2.1978-2.2027 now resistance & closes below recent Uptrend on Daily Chart. Tests 2014 low (2.1809).



bali sja 14:50 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

byebye 1.34 that never comes, let alone 1.27 etc etc hehehe

bali sja 14:45 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

so now 1.3650 becomes good support
1.3550-1.3650 range is finally gone

Mtl JP 14:45 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

the 100 day is at 1.3738

london red 14:39 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

euro 200 day just touched. for today the high is here or we do stops above (poss to 90) then back down and close below 200 day.

dc CB 14:30 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales

Mtl JP 14:09 GMT
pending is NOT a sale. not until credit is granted or cash passes from one hand into another's.
pending house sales are digits released by the ever-optimistic peddlers at National Association of Realtors
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

applied research
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
“I wonder if Facebook KILLED anyone with their emotion manipulation stunt. At their scale and with depressed people out there, it’s possible,” the privacy activist Lauren Weinstein wrote in a Twitter post.



Facebook Tinkers With Users’ Emotions in News Feed Experiment

bali sja 14:28 GMT June 30, 2014
sell usd
Reply   
as usual, keep selling usd if you want peace of mind for many days
usd may bounce from time to time but overall it should be sold IMHO
gbpusd is now comfortably above 1.70, while our target remains 1.72-1.73

Mtl JP 14:18 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales

raises the Qtn of where will 5 million used houses come from ...
blackrock & company that bought up delinquencies in blocks on 100s ?

GVI Forex john 14:10 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales

Pending Homes Sales much stronger than forecast. They imply an upcoming Existing Homes figure in excess of 5mln..

Mtl JP 14:09 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales

pending is NOT a sale. not until credit is granted or cash passes from one hand into another's.

pending house sales are digits released by the ever-optimistic peddlers at National Association of Realtors

Mtl JP 14:02 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

so, naturally, euro will come down next ...

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales

HS much stronger than expected. Low financing costs and higher inventories cited.

Mtl JP 14:01 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

poof goes the short euro

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
+6.1% vs.+1.30% exp. vs. +0.40% (+0.50%) prev.

RELEASE: Pending Home Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

london red 13:59 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

if stops are to be run it will be during this next hour imo. to form a short term high we need a long wick on hourly candle in 60 mins. 10 week at 13664 in play.

Mtl JP 13:47 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

looking to join Ginko in his usdyen long
earlier short euro still alive, x-fingers it stays that way

GVI Forex john 13:46 GMT June 30, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI

Chicago PMI just a touch weaker than expected.

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT June 30, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI
Reply   



ALERT
62.6 vs. 63.0 exp. vs. 65.5 prev.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:44 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert

Chi PMI (released earlier to subscribers) said to miss slightly on the downside

GVI Forex john 13:18 GMT June 30, 2014
New Member to this forum

Parihan-

Welcome to you and all the other recent members. Feel free to post your opinions, questions, etc. You will find this is a helpful and very knowledgeable community.

John

India 13:13 GMT June 30, 2014
New Member to this forum
Reply   
"Hi Everyone, I am Parihan Christy.. I am trading in Forex since two years... I have joined this forum for gaining my knowledge.. And also willing to share what I know..

Thanks to Forum admin"

Caribbean! Rafe... 13:07 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

JP// I posted mondays levels on friday instead of fridays levels on friday.

13663 it will be max today and if breached then 13681 NY session.

london red 12:58 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

euro long tail on hourly candle and looking to start next hour at high does not bode well for downside move, but eurgbp just done long tail on prev hour but needs to go below trendline support from last thurs and friday low, comes in at low for current hour. below her can fall of rapidly, if not then they do the long wick and take us to 8030 and euro goes thru 10 week at 64.
bottom line so far is euro had plenty of chance to go down on inflation which most expected to be 0.6 or 0.7. add to this bad retail sales for germany. i think we need to do some stops, certainly then would be more comfortable shorting.

GVI Forex john 12:54 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

JP- Could be. EURUSD flipped above its 20-day over a week ago. No reason to sell now?

Mtl JP 12:40 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map

the BET on euro here at 1.3650 is that the next 30 pips will be south rather than north. a print of 1.3667 will nix the bet

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 Canada: GDP
Reply   






ALERT
m/m +0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Livingston nh 12:17 GMT June 30, 2014
INFLATION

JP - Yellen is a "true believer" (NAIRU, Phillips curve, etc.) so reality needs a heavy hammer to burst her bubble - her predecessors were forced to change course by market events (G'span tried to prove he could hike rates w/ anybody and Ben maintained G'span's auto pilot 1/4 point hike regime) -- inflation (Q/Q) is running ahead of the Treasurys up thru the 10 yr so by August meeting the Fed may face some pushback

June and July CPI @0.4 readings could make "soothing" communications tougher to sell a "no rate hike in sight"
policy

GVI Forex john 11:38 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
Forex market from EUR Perspective Spot to 20-day averages remain mostly FED. Changes on the day are mostly GREEN. Large moves against the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD).



GVI Forex Blog 10:32 GMT June 30, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
EUR/USD three-week high market participants were waiting on the release of Eurozone inflation data which should confirm of not seeing signs of any deflationary spiral so far. Although ECB night not have reached lower bound on interest rates it seemed to have time to assess impact of June policy changes. The data came in to match its 4-year low reading of 0.5% but core ticked up a tenth of a percent to 0.8%

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone Jun Flash CPI again matches 4-year low at 0.5%

Mtl JP 10:23 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert

New TSA fees
Starting on July 1, the Transportation Security Administration — you know, the folks who are in charge of confiscating your shampoo at the airport and taking you aside for an “additional screening” — will more than double the mandatory fee they charge many flyers and will no longer cap these fees. Under the old law, the fee, which is used for flyer security, was $2.50 for each leg of a flight with a $5 cap on each one-way trip or a $10 cap on each round trip. But beginning July 1, the fee is $5.60 for each leg of a flight and that is not capped; if your layover is more than four hours on a domestic flight or 12 hours for international destinations, that counts as a second leg of the flight and you will be charged an additional fee.
-
No inflation.

Mtl JP 10:12 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert

Euro zone loans slump, ECB waits for new measures to kick in - bbrg

nothing seems to work for the meddlers.
- their money printing is driving stocks up
- their money printing is driving price-inflation up
- their economies GDPs are manipulated to show "rosy"
--
Just one thing missing.

GVI Forex Blog 09:18 GMT June 30, 2014
Eurozone Flash HICP Data remain at Depressed Levels. German Retail Sales Miss Estimates
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CA- GDP, US- Chicago PMI, Pending Homes

Flash EZ HICP (CPI) came in as a low 0.50% yr/yr, as expected. The report suggests the ECB may be forced to do more to return price increases to their target levels.

Eurozone Flash HICP Data remain at Depressed Levels. German Retail Sales Miss Estimates

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:11 GMT June 30, 2014
AceTrader Jun 30: Daily Market Outlook USD/JPY
Reply   
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 101.32

Update Time: 30 Jun 2014 05:58 GMT

The greenback remained under pressure after penetrating 101.61 support last week, suggesting the erratic decline from June's high at 102.80 has resumed and further weakness to 101.00/10 is envisaged, however, previous key daily support area at 100.76/81 should hold on 1st testing and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only a rise above 102.00 would prolong choppy consolidation and may risk gain to 102.35 resistance again.

london red 09:11 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert

plenty of res for euro above current levels but thats where the stops will be. res at 64,75,90. would like to see stops run where ever they are then get short set for nfp thrusday which is bang on with ecb presser

GVI Forex john 09:07 GMT June 30, 2014
June 2014 flash HICP (CPI)

EZ headline flash HICP (CPI) steady. It remains well below ECB target of "just below 2.0%".


london red 09:04 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert

italy drags down eu inflation and comes in as forecast +0.5%. however after last weeks data, many expecting higher so to all intents euro should have take a good hit lower. the fact it hasnt suggests we will continue squeezing higher

GVI Forex john 09:02 GMT June 30, 2014
June 2014 flash HICP (CPI)
Reply   




ALERT
Headline
yy: +0.50% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
CORE
yy: +0.80% vs. vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT June 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • Markets are in a mixed risk posture to start the new week late.  Most traders headed  into the second half of the year cautiously.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixes to lower. Yields on the European periphery have turned higher.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are steady.  The BOE consistently has rejected  the risk of a sharp policy tightening. We see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S. yields remain low. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.53%, 0 bp.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex john 08:44 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 German Real Retail Sales

EARLIER: German Retail Sales data weaker than expected.


GVI Forex john 08:38 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 German Real Retail Sales
Reply   



Earlier NEWS Release
mm: -0.60% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. -0.90% (r -1.50%) prev.
yy: +1.90% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +3.20% prev (r 1.90%).


TTN: Live News Special Offer


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GVI Forex 08:34 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert
Reply   
The euro area June CPI will be the main focus today. In May, this dipped to an annual rate of 0.5% but a rebound seems likely this month. The German numbers on Friday were stronger than expected, in part reflecting the impact of higher energy prices. We expect today’s data to also be higher than last month. This step away from deflation will help the ECB to justify standing pat at this month’s policy meeting as it awaits signs of the impact of the measures announced in

Lloyds Bank

GVI Forex Blog 08:09 GMT June 30, 2014 Reply   
*Notable Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN MAY PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.5% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 0.8% V 1.5%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: -4.3% (first decline in 5 months) V +2.9%

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Australia sequential new home sales and inflation retreat; NZD slumps on ANZ business confidence drop - Source TradeTheNews.com

Amman Amman 05:45 GMT June 30, 2014
Monday's Trading Outlook

I am not agree with this, i do not think Monday is the hike time

Amman Amman 05:41 GMT June 30, 2014
AceTrader Jun 30: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Very Impressive quote by France's Hollande

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:54 GMT June 30, 2014
AceTrader Jun 30: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

30 Jun 2014 02:35GMT

EUR/USD - ... The single currency maintained a firm undertone after rising to 1.3650 on Friday n bids are now located at 1.3640-30 n more at 1.3620-10 with stops only seen below 1.3600. On the upside, some stops are tipped abv 1.3650 n 1.3655.

Bloomberg news reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, in a telephone call lasting more than two hours, told Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine chief Petro Poroshenko to start peace talks and reminded them of a looming deadline for Kremlin action.

In other news, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said in its annual report released earlier that loose monetary policy makes it easy for euro-area banks to keep bad debt on their books, potentially delaying the flushing out of sour loans.

Last Friday, statement from France's Hollande said, qoute:
'will hold phone talks with Germany's Merkel, Ukraine's Poroshenko, Russia's Putin on Sunday; EU will take more measures if no progress on Ukraine by Sunday.'
Also, statement from German Chancellor Angela Merkel qoute:
'progress made on Ukraine peace process is not satisfactory; if no progress made on any of the points of Ukraine peace plan then we are prepared to take severe measures.'


Data to be release next week:

Japan industrial output, construction orders, housing starts, Germany retail sales, Italy producer prices, consumer prices preliminary, CPI, U.K. mortgage approvals, mortgage lending, euro zone inflation, Canada GDP, U.S. Chicago PMI, pending home sales on Monday.

Japan Tankan, China NBS manufacturing PMI, HSCB manufacturing PMI, Japan manufacturing PMI, Australia RBA rate decision, Switzerland PMI, Italy Markit/ADACI manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, unemployment change, euro zone Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending on Tuesday.

Australia exports, imports, trade balance, U,K. Nationwide house price, Markit/CIPS construction PMI, euro zone producer prices, U.S. ADP employment, durable goods revised, factory orders, Canada manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.

China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, HSBC service PMI, Australia building approvals, retails sales, France Markit/ABACI service PMI, Fracne Markit service PMI, Germany Markit service PMI, euro zone Markit service PMI, retails sales, ECB rate decision, U.K. Markit/CIPS service PMI, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, jobless claims, average earnings, trade balance, Markit service PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Thursday.

Germany industrial orders, U.K. Halifax house prices, U.S. markets closed for July 4 Independence Day holiday on Friday.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:43 GMT June 30, 2014
Monday's Trading Outlook
Reply   
My weekend post on GVIForex

- How the market ends the week more important than how it starts out
- Chance eurusd could run stops, especially if flash HICP ticks up as expected
- If eurusd runs stops, then there is a chance of a Monday Effect week if Monday's high becomes the high for the week
- Watch 1.3650 and more important 1.3675
- US 10-year 2.50% yield may hold a key to how it trades
- Month/quarter/half year end flows to dominate Monday

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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