Brock Thor 23:37 GMT June 30, 2014
GBP/USD
Reply
Closed long +66.7 pips looks to consolidate now.
Closed two Gbp/Jpy one +11.7... 2nd trade -3.3.
After that gbp/yen nose dive hung in for tiny profit.
syd sf 21:05 GMT June 30, 2014
morning
Reply
I have quite alot of orders from my bots at the moment
gbp I have some stops @18-19 from range stuff that sold lower
but as price moved up - another short term bot offered @15
so it seems for now 00-25 is prob short term range.
eurusd - similar -- some bids 87-89 offers 97-00 and stops @05
eurcad has been offering @12-13-14 -- probably bit later this can get up to 30ish once the short term selling stuff expires.
AudNzd - see both sides here as well bids 20 offers 80 -- with RBA later bit hard to suggest this cross though.
Gold saw models buying @14 @22 @23 -- looking for the breakout that came and went last wed/thursday it seems.
BOL today.
GVI Forex Blog 20:46 GMT June 30, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply
Markets were again lacklustre, EUR/USD strength one notable feature. US data was mixed, with Chicago PMI disappointing but pending home sales beating estimates. Fed dove Williams said recent data was consistent with a rate hike in H2 2015, later than the market's current pricing of Q2 2015. The S&P500 is currently unchanged.
Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts
GVI Forex Blog 19:34 GMT June 30, 2014
German Retail Sales Miss. EZ HICP Remains Subdued. Pressure on ECB for More Ease to Mount
Reply
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Tankan Survey, CN- PMIs, AU- RBA. EZ, DE, FR, GB, CH- PMI, DE- Jobs, CA- MKT PMI, US- PMIs
This is an extremely busy week heading into the Friday U.S. Independence Day holiday. Early on Tuesday the Japanese Quarterly Tankan Survey will be released. Tuesday also sees a slew of Manufacturing PMI reports and German Employment data.
German Retail Sales Miss. EZ HICP Remains Subdued. Pressure on ECB for More Ease to Mount
GVI Forex john 19:25 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR COT Positions
Reply
I post this and a number of other charts every Friday. You can see how position changes follow the spot vs. 20-day relationship. Personally, I don't like selling the EUR under present circumstances. To me its like swimming upstream. Click on the chart for a different and more detailed view.
Click on chart for COT Details
KL KL 19:18 GMT June 30, 2014
SELL GBPUSD
Reply
Sold gbpusd...1.7109...and this is relentless.....DYOR...DFM..IMVHO...hope to cover under 1.71 or chase it to the sky????....LOL
GVI Forex Blog 18:28 GMT June 30, 2014
Reply
June 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Tankan Survey, CN- PMIs, AU- RBA. EZ, DE, FR, GB, cH- PMI, DE- Employment, CA- MKT PMI, US- PMIs
GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 1, 2014
GVI Forex john 18:24 GMT June 30, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply
June 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 1.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Tankan Survey, CN- PMIs, AU- RBA. EZ, DE, FR, GB, cH- PMI, DE-
Employment, CA- MKT PMI, US- PMIs
- Far East: JP- Tankan Survey, CN- PMIs, AU- RBA.
- Europe: EZ, DE, FR, GB, cH- PMI, DE- Employment, EZ- Unemployment.
- North America: CA- MKT PMI, US- PMIs, Construction Spending, API Energy.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 18:03 GMT June 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
As I posted here earlier:
- How the market ends the week more important than how it starts out
- Chance eurusd could run stops, especially if flash HICP ticks up as expected
- If eurusd runs stops, then there is a chance of a Monday Effect week if Monday's high becomes the high for the week
- Watch 1.3650 and more important 1.3675
- US 10-year 2.50% yield may hold a key to how it trades
- Month/quarter/half year end flows to dominate Monday
SaaR KaL 17:12 GMT June 30, 2014
EURUSD Avg High and Low
Gold and Silver
Sell till Oct/2014
That was a dead cat bounce
NY JM 16:56 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
Don't draw conclusions from end of the half yearend price action although USD is closing at or around its lows for the month.
GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT June 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
- Markets remain in a mixed risk posture to start the new
week. Most traders are headed into the second half of the year
cautiously.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are lower. Yields on the European periphery have
turned higher.
- U.K. gilt yields are up. The BOE
consistently has rejected the risk of a sharp policy tightening.
We
see a +25bp BOE rate hike by
yearend.
- U.S. yields remain low. The
U.S. 10-yr is 2.53%, 0 bp.
- Equities closed mixed in the
Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares are up slightly.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
Paris ib 15:50 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
That's the general idea. But it's only half the picture. There also seems to be a project to lower wages, destroy living standards, increase the pressure of so-called 'free trade' on local industries. No-one wins. At least not at the popular level.
kl shawn 15:47 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
john, so most like to become gamblers it seems as I see this too many many times on the forum, or is it a case of repeating the same mistakes?
Paris ib 15:47 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
But worse still is the extremely favourable tax and regulation regime allowed to U.S. Foundations (Bill Gates for example). That is a scam of the highest order. It makes me laugh when the Estate Tax is debated in the U.S., you gotta be kidding me. Debate that and not Foundations? What a hoot.
Paris ib 15:42 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
Because corporations control governments. That is also why there is a push to LOWER corporate taxation even as other taxes and charges rise (under austerity). That is not just a U.S. phenomenon, it's world wide.
GVI Forex john 15:40 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
As I said earlier, its dangerous to sell When a pair flips to above its 20-day moving average. You are swimming against the tide. It can work but the odds are against you and forex trading is a game of odds.
PAR 15:37 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
Why are US citizens taxed on their global income and Us corporations not ?
SaaR KaL 15:37 GMT June 30, 2014
EURUSD Avg High and Low
GBPUSD should start a south bound for 1.68 area...Maybe in a week
might play yoyo for a while
CHart is avg High Low
kl shawn 15:36 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
with ultra low interest rates and usd keeps tanking i can understand your point Paris ib
Paris ib 15:32 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
Nope. And no evidence that the profits held overseas by U.S. corporations is ever likely to head home.
Livingston nh 15:31 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
ib - you reference capital outflows - do you have info on overseas US corporate cash?
kl shawn 15:31 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
fs, you would be very lucky to even see 1.3650, no chance
Paris ib 15:30 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
It's a mind set. On average the real economic situation of the United States is not understood. The fact that the Credit Agencies are American helps. The financial media is mostly Anglo-Saxon and there is a widespread refusal to face facts.
kl fs 15:29 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
i think make it simple
if you see 1.3650-1.3670, just hit buy
NY JM 15:28 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
As long as inflation is tame there is no I incentive to have a strong currency.
US is happy to see the USD trade soft but don't get carried away as this could just be the result of month/quarter/half yearend flows.
bali sja 15:26 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
Paris ib, in other forums I can understand, but here I can never understand it
Paris ib 15:26 GMT June 30, 2014
Global Markets News
And there was no benefit to the USD from this positive news.
Paris ib 15:23 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
sja - it's not just this forum. Other forums are the same way. Everyone buying the USD on the dips.... because of course at some point there is going to be this huge wave of new capital inflows favouring the USD. Why that would be, especially when the USD's role as the international reserve currency is so terribly tarnished, is never explained. I mean I know the USD was the reserve currency since the GBP was ditched... but things change. You move on.
bali sja 15:18 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
Paris ib, and the funny thing is GV/GVI is full of those hard believers
usd is like boiling a frog
Paris ib 15:16 GMT June 30, 2014
USD - the weak link
Reply
The USD is the United State's weak link. It's currently under pressure against pretty much everything: JPY, EUR, AUD, GBP... and yet the pundits keep assuring us that the USD will rally, that capital will start flowing into the U.S...... and the whole retail market follows. JPY shorts are still way up there. This is a faith based market. I find that incredibly weird.
Caribbean! Rafe... 15:16 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR
14072-13990-13908-13826-13744-13662
=Average(13744+13662)=13703, 13682 etc.
bali sja 15:14 GMT June 30, 2014
usd
Reply
decade of the dollar, yeah rite LOL
london red 15:11 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR
JP, 60, 50, 40 with a trail, but lets get back below 200 day first or its toast and 13725/30 beckons.
SaaR KaL 15:11 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR
SOme Longs USDCHF
bali sja 15:09 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR
forget about TP worry about SL hit first
SaaR KaL 15:08 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR
Sounds Like you are right Red
Mtl JP 15:06 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR
red 15:02 --> targets _ _ ? tia
Mtl JP 15:03 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
dc CB from ZH re home sales is actually down y o y, 8th in a row.
much more telling statistic since the mom increase was probably a seasonal thingie
re reporting percentage: if I was selling one unit and then sold 2 units next day , would a 100% increase in sales impress u ?
bali sja 15:03 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR
usual top pickers on a range breaking day like this will make me smile
GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT June 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
10-yt 2.525% barely changed.
Monthend and waiting for Jobs data on Thursday.
bali sja 15:02 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
woohoo, so happy to see gbpusd hit 1.71
end of june, what a good month
london red 15:02 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR
short euro 90. stop 13705
cable to short 17110/20 stop over 35
SaaR KaL 15:02 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
EURUSD he is a sell
Yellow is mean (Avg)
Caribbean! Rafe... 14:57 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR
Reply
Waiting for a good chance to short euro. entered at 13681 but momentum is too strong hence exited it at break even, might enter at 13710 level if it slows down but we will have spectacular moves this week.
bali sja 14:56 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
dont tell me i did not warn you all about 1.35-1.36 buying zone
London Misha 14:51 GMT June 30, 2014
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - Open & Close White Marubozo and Bullish Engulfing Pattern with 1st close over key Fibs at 1.3644 on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - 1st close below Long MA & recent Uptrend. Tests key 50% Fib at 101.17 on Daily Chart. Dead Cross of Short MA down through Short/Medium MA.
GBPUSD - Indecisive Spinning Top as tests 2014 high (1.7062) again!
USDCHF - 1st close below recent 50% Fib (0.8926) & new Jun low on Daily Chart! Possible Double Top!
EURGBP - Bullish Harami & still possible Double Bottom on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Either a Triple Top as tests 2014 high (0.9462) or Ascending Triangle, all on Daily Chart!
USDINR - Open & Close Black Marubozo & still chance of Descending Triangle using Fibs (60.07-60.09) & Medium MA, all on Daily Chart!
USDZAR - Now a Bearish Harami on Daily Chart & still uses recent AP Lower Tine support with a possible Reverse H+S.
USDBRL - Support bank 2.1978-2.2027 now resistance & closes below recent Uptrend on Daily Chart. Tests 2014 low (2.1809).
bali sja 14:50 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
byebye 1.34 that never comes, let alone 1.27 etc etc hehehe
bali sja 14:45 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
so now 1.3650 becomes good support
1.3550-1.3650 range is finally gone
Mtl JP 14:45 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
the 100 day is at 1.3738
london red 14:39 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
euro 200 day just touched. for today the high is here or we do stops above (poss to 90) then back down and close below 200 day.
dc CB 14:30 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
Mtl JP 14:09 GMT
pending is NOT a sale. not until credit is granted or cash passes from one hand into another's.
pending house sales are digits released by the ever-optimistic peddlers at National Association of Realtors
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
applied research
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
“I wonder if Facebook KILLED anyone with their emotion manipulation stunt. At their scale and with depressed people out there, it’s possible,” the privacy activist Lauren Weinstein wrote in a Twitter post.
Facebook Tinkers With Users’ Emotions in News Feed Experiment
bali sja 14:28 GMT June 30, 2014
sell usd
Reply
as usual, keep selling usd if you want peace of mind for many days
usd may bounce from time to time but overall it should be sold IMHO
gbpusd is now comfortably above 1.70, while our target remains 1.72-1.73
Mtl JP 14:18 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
raises the Qtn of where will 5 million used houses come from ...
blackrock & company that bought up delinquencies in blocks on 100s ?
GVI Forex john 14:10 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
Pending Homes Sales much stronger than forecast. They imply an upcoming Existing Homes figure in excess of 5mln..
Mtl JP 14:09 GMT June 30, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
pending is NOT a sale. not until credit is granted or cash passes from one hand into another's.
pending house sales are digits released by the ever-optimistic peddlers at National Association of Realtors
Mtl JP 14:02 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
so, naturally, euro will come down next ...
Mtl JP 14:01 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
poof goes the short euro
london red 13:59 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
if stops are to be run it will be during this next hour imo. to form a short term high we need a long wick on hourly candle in 60 mins. 10 week at 13664 in play.
Mtl JP 13:47 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
looking to join Ginko in his usdyen long
earlier short euro still alive, x-fingers it stays that way
GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:44 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert
Chi PMI (released earlier to subscribers) said to miss slightly on the downside
GVI Forex john 13:18 GMT June 30, 2014
New Member to this forum
Parihan-
Welcome to you and all the other recent members. Feel free to post your opinions, questions, etc. You will find this is a helpful and very knowledgeable community.
John
India 13:13 GMT June 30, 2014
New Member to this forum
Reply
"Hi Everyone, I am Parihan Christy.. I am trading in Forex since two years... I have joined this forum for gaining my knowledge.. And also willing to share what I know..
Thanks to Forum admin"
Caribbean! Rafe... 13:07 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
JP// I posted mondays levels on friday instead of fridays levels on friday.
13663 it will be max today and if breached then 13681 NY session.
london red 12:58 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
euro long tail on hourly candle and looking to start next hour at high does not bode well for downside move, but eurgbp just done long tail on prev hour but needs to go below trendline support from last thurs and friday low, comes in at low for current hour. below her can fall of rapidly, if not then they do the long wick and take us to 8030 and euro goes thru 10 week at 64.
bottom line so far is euro had plenty of chance to go down on inflation which most expected to be 0.6 or 0.7. add to this bad retail sales for germany. i think we need to do some stops, certainly then would be more comfortable shorting.
GVI Forex john 12:54 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
JP- Could be. EURUSD flipped above its 20-day over a week ago. No reason to sell now?
Mtl JP 12:40 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
the BET on euro here at 1.3650 is that the next 30 pips will be south rather than north. a print of 1.3667 will nix the bet
Livingston nh 12:17 GMT June 30, 2014
INFLATION
JP - Yellen is a "true believer" (NAIRU, Phillips curve, etc.) so reality needs a heavy hammer to burst her bubble - her predecessors were forced to change course by market events (G'span tried to prove he could hike rates w/ anybody and Ben maintained G'span's auto pilot 1/4 point hike regime) -- inflation (Q/Q) is running ahead of the Treasurys up thru the 10 yr so by August meeting the Fed may face some pushback
June and July CPI @0.4 readings could make "soothing" communications tougher to sell a "no rate hike in sight"
policy
GVI Forex john 11:38 GMT June 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply
Forex market from EUR Perspective Spot to 20-day averages remain mostly FED. Changes on the day are mostly GREEN. Large moves against the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD).
Mtl JP 10:23 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert
New TSA fees
Starting on July 1, the Transportation Security Administration — you know, the folks who are in charge of confiscating your shampoo at the airport and taking you aside for an “additional screening” — will more than double the mandatory fee they charge many flyers and will no longer cap these fees. Under the old law, the fee, which is used for flyer security, was $2.50 for each leg of a flight with a $5 cap on each one-way trip or a $10 cap on each round trip. But beginning July 1, the fee is $5.60 for each leg of a flight and that is not capped; if your layover is more than four hours on a domestic flight or 12 hours for international destinations, that counts as a second leg of the flight and you will be charged an additional fee.
-
No inflation.
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:11 GMT June 30, 2014
AceTrader Jun 30: Daily Market Outlook USD/JPY
Reply
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 101.32
Update Time: 30 Jun 2014 05:58 GMT
The greenback remained under pressure after penetrating 101.61 support last week, suggesting the erratic decline from June's high at 102.80 has resumed and further weakness to 101.00/10 is envisaged, however, previous key daily support area at 100.76/81 should hold on 1st testing and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only a rise above 102.00 would prolong choppy consolidation and may risk gain to 102.35 resistance again.
london red 09:11 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert
plenty of res for euro above current levels but thats where the stops will be. res at 64,75,90. would like to see stops run where ever they are then get short set for nfp thrusday which is bang on with ecb presser
GVI Forex john 09:07 GMT June 30, 2014
June 2014 flash HICP (CPI)
EZ headline flash HICP (CPI) steady. It remains well below ECB target of "just below 2.0%".
london red 09:04 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert
italy drags down eu inflation and comes in as forecast +0.5%. however after last weeks data, many expecting higher so to all intents euro should have take a good hit lower. the fact it hasnt suggests we will continue squeezing higher
GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT June 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
- Markets are in a mixed risk posture to start the new week
late. Most traders headed into the second half of the year
cautiously.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are mixes to lower. Yields on the European periphery have
turned higher.
- U.K. gilt yields are steady. The BOE
consistently has rejected the risk of a sharp policy tightening.
We
see a +25bp BOE rate hike by
yearend.
- U.S. yields remain low. The
U.S. 10-yr is 2.53%, 0 bp.
- Equities closed mixed in the
Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares are up.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
GVI Forex 08:34 GMT June 30, 2014
Data Alert
Reply
The euro area June CPI will be the main focus today. In May, this dipped to an annual rate of 0.5% but a rebound seems likely this month. The German numbers on Friday were stronger than expected, in part reflecting the impact of higher energy prices. We expect today’s data to also be higher than last month. This step away from deflation will help the ECB to justify standing pat at this month’s policy meeting as it awaits signs of the impact of the measures announced in
Lloyds Bank
Amman Amman 05:45 GMT June 30, 2014
Monday's Trading Outlook
I am not agree with this, i do not think Monday is the hike time
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:54 GMT June 30, 2014
AceTrader Jun 30: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD
30 Jun 2014 02:35GMT
EUR/USD - ... The single currency maintained a firm undertone after rising to 1.3650 on Friday n bids are now located at 1.3640-30 n more at 1.3620-10 with stops only seen below 1.3600. On the upside, some stops are tipped abv 1.3650 n 1.3655.
Bloomberg news reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, in a telephone call lasting more than two hours, told Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine chief Petro Poroshenko to start peace talks and reminded them of a looming deadline for Kremlin action.
In other news, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said in its annual report released earlier that loose monetary policy makes it easy for euro-area banks to keep bad debt on their books, potentially delaying the flushing out of sour loans.
Last Friday, statement from France's Hollande said, qoute:
'will hold phone talks with Germany's Merkel, Ukraine's Poroshenko, Russia's Putin on Sunday; EU will take more measures if no progress on Ukraine by Sunday.'
Also, statement from German Chancellor Angela Merkel qoute:
'progress made on Ukraine peace process is not satisfactory; if no progress made on any of the points of Ukraine peace plan then we are prepared to take severe measures.'
Data to be release next week:
Japan industrial output, construction orders, housing starts, Germany retail sales, Italy producer prices, consumer prices preliminary, CPI, U.K. mortgage approvals, mortgage lending, euro zone inflation, Canada GDP, U.S. Chicago PMI, pending home sales on Monday.
Japan Tankan, China NBS manufacturing PMI, HSCB manufacturing PMI, Japan manufacturing PMI, Australia RBA rate decision, Switzerland PMI, Italy Markit/ADACI manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, unemployment change, euro zone Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing PMI, construction spending on Tuesday.
Australia exports, imports, trade balance, U,K. Nationwide house price, Markit/CIPS construction PMI, euro zone producer prices, U.S. ADP employment, durable goods revised, factory orders, Canada manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.
China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, HSBC service PMI, Australia building approvals, retails sales, France Markit/ABACI service PMI, Fracne Markit service PMI, Germany Markit service PMI, euro zone Markit service PMI, retails sales, ECB rate decision, U.K. Markit/CIPS service PMI, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, jobless claims, average earnings, trade balance, Markit service PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Thursday.
Germany industrial orders, U.K. Halifax house prices, U.S. markets closed for July 4 Independence Day holiday on Friday.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:43 GMT June 30, 2014
Monday's Trading Outlook
Reply
My weekend post on GVIForex
- How the market ends the week more important than how it starts out
- Chance eurusd could run stops, especially if flash HICP ticks up as expected
- If eurusd runs stops, then there is a chance of a Monday Effect week if Monday's high becomes the high for the week
- Watch 1.3650 and more important 1.3675
- US 10-year 2.50% yield may hold a key to how it trades
- Month/quarter/half year end flows to dominate Monday
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