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Forex Forum Archive for 07/1/2014

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Mtl JP 23:08 GMT July 1, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

Mtl JP 15:15 GMT July 1, 2014
GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 2, 2014: Reply
according to the IMF "The new lecture series will become an annual event, which is intended to highlight the IMF’s commitment to collaboration with member countries’ central banks and provide a forum to discuss topical issues in central banking"
-
remains to be seen what "topical issue" Janet chooses

Mtl JP 15:10 GMT July 1, 2014
GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 2, 2014: Reply
how - not, low, med, high - significant do you expect
Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Financial Stability
At the Inaugural Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture at the International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.
11:00 am ET
to be taken by FX players ?

--
Interestingly Janet's FED seems to follow BIS' edict that says "It is essential to move away from debt as the main engine of growth" i.e cut printing. This is antithetical to everything that state-backed CB fiat (printable money) system is all about: no limit to printing and no check on spending, on power, on control or accountability.

I am curious to see what topic Janet chooses to tackle.

HK [email protected] 22:34 GMT July 1, 2014
One of the main causes of weak USD: US fomented Ukraine crisis and SPYING.
Reply   


More and more nations turn away from trade in USD, probably some prefer to limit purchase of US goods.

With a genius president like Obama, it's all down to the toilet:)

HK [email protected] 22:18 GMT July 1, 2014
Chart gazing: AUD



Short term AUD(O.B) if not disturbed, to 0.9525/30 target

syd sf 22:15 GMT July 1, 2014
morning
Reply   
don't have much left on the books this morning

audnzd to get done 35-40 area

gbp have some shorts @60 short term

eur some bids @74-75

eurcad bids @42/43/44

gbpusd most likely 1.7110-20 - 1.7225 ... everything else probably some profit taking / consolidation in asia... centred around audusd audnzd and audyen nzdyen.

HK [email protected] 22:10 GMT July 1, 2014
Chart gazing: AUD
Reply   


In monthly timeframe, AUD is aiming at 1.03, but on short term because of O.B conditions pullbacks can happen.

dc CB 22:01 GMT July 1, 2014
VIX-Manipulating HFT Algo
Reply   
We have previously noted the odd 'dark pool' manipulation we suspected was occurring in VIX derivatives...

And now Nanex exposes the "odd-lot" algo that appears to have been forced into the light...

There is a new High Frequency Trading (HFT) Algo afoot, probably designed to measure, or cause system latency. This algo sends extreme bursts of 1-share orders in a symbol to two different exchanges: Nasdaq and BATS.

The result is a system-impacting surge of quote updates, similar to quote stuffing, but accompanied by an extremely high number of 1-share trade executions. These trade executions often consume the entire SIP output line, as indicated by continuous sequence numbers with no gaps.

The Bottom Line...

1) On days when the VIX has been slammed notably lower, we have seen more than coincidentally massive after-hours volume spikes in VXX and TVIX (where manipulators can hide their actions)

2) This is the footprint of dark pools flushing their orders to the public markets

3) Since June 26th (when Barclays was hit by the Dark pool probe), a 'new' algo has appeared in TVIX

4) Today's major algo manipulation (above) and plunge in VIX suggest the dark pool rigging is in the open more transparent public markets now...

Exposed For Whole World To See

HK [email protected] 21:59 GMT July 1, 2014
Chart gazing: Euro
Reply   

Euro is stubbornly stubborn likely

Will chop chop it's way to 1.3740

GVI Forex 21:34 GMT July 1, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

US: Fed Chair Yellen speaks Wednesday at 10:00 am ET on monetary policy to the IMF central banking conference in Washington.

GVI Forex john 21:26 GMT July 1, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



July 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Trade, EZ- PPI, US- ADP Private Jobs, Factory Orders Yellen

  • Far East: AU- Trade.
  • Europe: EZ- PPI.
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Private Jobs, Factory Orders, weekly Crude, Yellen, CA- Markit PMI.


GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT July 1, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
Wednesday July 2, 2014
US ADP Jobs Uneven Non-Farm Payroll  Predictor
FRB Yellen Key Speech

Thursday July 3, 2014
AU Retail Sales
DE SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
EZ SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
GB SVC PMI Current Economic Measure
EZ Europe Cntl Bank Rates Seem Steady
US Initial Claims & Cont Claims Current View
US Payrolls % Jobless %  Key Measure of Growth
US Markit SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
US ISM SVC PMI Current Economic Measure

Friday July 4, 2014
US Holiday


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:41 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Red which spread do you look at, 2 yr?

london red 20:40 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

kw, its the spread vs US you want to watch there. when the spread narrows it can support, when widens it can cause weakness vs dollar.

GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT July 1, 2014
Weekly US API Data
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -0.90 vs. -2.00 exp vs. +1.740 prev.
Gasoline: -0.410 vs. 0.0 exp vs. +0.710 prev.
Distillates: +4.400 vs. +1.0 exp vs. +1.20 prev.
Cap/Util: 89.9% vs. n/a exp vs. 88.5% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 20:08 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

DJIA and S$P close at record highs. Fund managers are redeploying funds for the new quarter and new half-year.

The first major test could be U.S. payrolls on Thursday. I don't see the ECB decision as a major event for U.S. markets although the two will be simultaneous events. As for the ECB, it is probably too early to assess the impact of their June policy easing. Ido see the RISK that Draghi might try to jawbone the EUR weaker again, the problem is this could become counter=productive if the currency does not respond.

thoughts??

GVI Forex john 19:40 GMT July 1, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

nw kw 19:39 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

+4bp and no drop in gold?

GVI Forex john 19:33 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Big move in 10-yr today now 2.568% +4bp

presumably a risk-on trade as stocks rise.

nw kw 19:23 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

red - can bund give e/u support

london red 19:19 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

yield steadily creeping higher from start of week, from friday in hindsight really. thats why you're getting the dollar off its lows against the weaker currencies. if yields continue to pick up, this will field into the rest. all depends on what job prints we get thursday.

nw kw 19:13 GMT July 1, 2014
Fundamentals 4 Trading



new aud gov. moved away from china and usd qe/SPI 200 trading down but a/u is strong poss still be upside .97 so uas/cat will be 1.2

GVI Forex Blog 19:07 GMT July 1, 2014
U.S. PMI Reports Miss. German Data Misses Again. Other PMIs Mixed
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: AU- Trade, EZ- PPI, ADP Private Jobs, Factory Orders, Yellen

On Wednesday, the highlights are the ADP Private employment report and a key speech by Fed Chair Yellen. U.S. PMI data missed street estimates, but maintained positive levels.

U.S. PMI Reports Miss. German Data Misses Again. Other PMIs Mixed

GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT July 1, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


Mtl JP 18:52 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I have seen 10-yr trade as high as $124.97... and $124.80 low
still priced too high imho
by at least a dollar

mw kw 18:42 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD



Dax monthly chart

nw kw 18:37 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD



G Bund monthly chart

dc CB 18:37 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

ReRepo operation is not limited to Primary Dealers.

Yesterday there were 97 bidders for that 300billion

this page shows the daily ...if you click on Show 25 you can see the last 25 deals

NYFED Temp Ops

london red 18:34 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

regular updates of 10 year yield missing this week, feel it could be important.

Mtl JP 18:27 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

for the record .. and perspective: when one talks about expanding the number of primary dealers , the peak number of primary dealers was in 1988: 46

dc CB 17:36 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

When we reported yesterday's record reverse-repo surge, driven entirely by collateral-strapped financial entities scrambling to "window dress" their balance sheets for regulatory purposes, we said "Expect total reverse repo usage tomorrow to plunge by at least $150 billion as the banks will have fooled their regulator, which also happens to be the Fed, that they are safe and sound.

Moments ago the Fed reported the daily reverse repo use. It turns out we were optimistic: it wasn't $150 billion, it was $189 billion. Following yesterday's $339 billion allottment, today this number tumbled to just $151 billion, meaing nearly $200 billion in fungible cash had to quick find a new home away from the Fed.

Which, incidentally explains where the relentless buying in today's market is coming from: today the Fed just released liquidity for two months worth of POMO in one day - money which promptly had to find a parking spot until the next quarter end when the same window dressing exercise is repeated and which will continue to go on completely unnoticed by regulators.

Record $189 Billion Injected Into Market From "Window Dressing" Reverse Repo Unwind

Mtl JP 17:35 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

respectfully PAR 16:51 ... you, nor anyone, can prove that

GVI Forex john 17:25 GMT July 1, 2014
Fundamentals 4 Trading
Reply   
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: Updated after today's PMI data. No change in relative economic strengths: GBP, USD, EUR and JPY in that order. Currencies seem to be driven most by their relative economic strengths.





GVIForex Jay Meisler 17:11 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

I am using 1.3675 as the pivotal level while within 1,3650-00 and the bounce off it has it testing the 1.3690-95 area I suggested earlier. Much will depend on whether there are stops to run on the upside. JPY has been the underperformer today, suggests carry trade interest with USD and EUR 2nd in line.

GVI Forex john 17:08 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

DJIA setting new intra-day record high: RISK-ON.

start of a new calendar quarter.

PAR 16:51 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Basically if ECB had taken no action Euro would be much lower and real European economy would be in much better shape.

Central bankers are sorcerers apprentices who think they know , but they just dont know .

london red 16:49 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

following the current trend the high could have come in anywhere from 13650-13750. anytime we do more than 50% the chance is we will explore further upside so the region between 13730-50 becomes key. it will need something hawkish out of the ecb or dovish from the fed, or some poor data from the US to take us above those resistance, in which case youd need to look to 138.
cable closing above res at 17120 makes 17337 more likely but equally likely, given that there has been no pullback, that 17337 marks a multi week high, being 50% of 1.35-2.12. take note that cable has barely traded in junes range (applies to euro also to a lesser degree) and this will likely be corrected by the end of the month, so on no pullback to at least 1.70, a top at 17337 if reached looks like on a medium term basis.

Livingston nh 16:46 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

last 60 days -- Technicals play a role (e.g., above 1.81 there are no daily MA resistances), fundamentals are on the shelf for now but the big moves come on "events" and the "expectations" those events promote

EUR moved on ECB and now says no more ECB -- above 1.37 could come on any event and below 1.3650 the same

ECB has no more events so fiscal EU policy becomes important (fundamental) -- events for EUR/USD will be only EU private sector or US data that will alter expectations

Israel Dil 16:45 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: 1.3550 this week Stop:

i put money that this week will close below 1.36

PAR 16:45 GMT July 1, 2014
DOW
Reply   
DOW 17000 on tuesday ,july 1 2014 .

GVIForex Jay Meisler 16:33 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Or when those currencies meet resistance, EURUSD will fall out of cross offsets.

Personally I hope it firms to give better sell levels.

Lahore FM 16:31 GMT July 1, 2014
gpaud
Reply   
Buy GBPAUD
Entry: 1.8066 Target: 1.95 Stop: 1.79

long on this.

kl fs 16:30 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

with aud and gbp charging on relentlessly, euro will be pulled up later as well

GVIForex Jay Meisler 16:19 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

fs, that is the purpose of this thread and differing opinions is what makes a market.

It all depends on whether 1.37 is broken. if 1.3700 is not broken then 1.3650 is at risk. if 1.37 breaks, then risk is for 1.3735-75

EURUSD will lag USD weakness.

kl fs 16:13 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

meanwhile aud and gbp will make new highs against usd

kl fs 16:12 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

disagree, prisoners yesterday will make sure 1.3650 will never be traded, most likely they will cut back losses on any approach to 1.3670

Israel Dil 16:09 GMT July 1, 2014
EUR/USD
Reply   
1.35-1.40 will break one day. P1.35 & C1.40 will make loads of money for someone or someones behalf their issuers.

when?! most probably when Israel will win the world cup in soccer. so, 1.35 will test before 1.40 will get tested.

bye

GVI Forex john 15:38 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


  • Markets remain in a mild risk-on  posture after several stronger than expected PMI reports.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are now steady to lower. Yields on the European periphery are mixed.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are up. We see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.55%, +2 bp.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are closing higher. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:38 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

This is a question that will force some opinions on the risk

Which has a better chance of trading pre-ECB and NFP

1.3650 or 1.3700?

I see 1.3650 as more at risk, agree or disagree?

GVI Forex Blog 15:31 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The last trading day of the second quarter failed generate any volatility from combined month-end and half-end rebalancing, and analysts highlighted that yesterday's S&P 500 volumes were about half the year-ago figures. Things have barely picked up today, and the solid PMI and auto sales figures are driving US equities sharply higher on the first day of the second half.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Second Half of 2014 Opens with a Bang

GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:22 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

If 1.3675 holds then selling interest slows and we go into one of those sideways ranges (1.3675-90/95?). If 1.3675 gives way then risk is 1.3640-50.

Here is my earlier video update



Daily Trading Outlook Video Update

Also, 1.3739 = 100 day mva, which is within my resistance zone

kl fs 15:17 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Jay, 1.3675 holds, we go up from here?

Mtl JP 15:15 GMT July 1, 2014
GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 2, 2014

according to the IMF "The new lecture series will become an annual event, which is intended to highlight the IMF’s commitment to collaboration with member countries’ central banks and provide a forum to discuss topical issues in central banking"
-
remains to be seen what "topical issue" Janet chooses

GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:54 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

See my earlier post -- 1.37 proving to be a top (EUR crosses argue that way) - see now if 1.3675 holds.

GVI Forex Blog 14:31 GMT July 1, 2014
GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 2, 2014
Reply   
July 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Trade, EZ- PPI, US- ADP Private Jobs, Factory Orders Yellen

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 2, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:27 GMT July 1, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Trade, EZ- PPI, US- ADP Private Jobs, Factory Orders Yellen

  • Far East: AU- Trade.
  • Europe: EZ- PPI.
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Private Jobs, Factory Orders, weekly Crude, Yellen, CA- Markit PMI.


Mtl JP 14:22 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

dc CB / more fun:
GM auto dealers sue GM Canada as sales plunge - cbc
Toronto-area dealers say they got no financial support, unlike U.S. counterparts

dc CB 14:21 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

What not even a single "revision" ...didn't we have 3 in 30 mins last month?

GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

U.S. ISM misses estimates. Employment PMI Steady.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:07 GMT July 1, 2014
BNP find and EURUSD

Posted by a GVIForex member

Tuesday's Trading Outlook
Dillon AL 14:02 GMT 07/01/2014 - My Profile
The Euro seen through the eyes of the Swissy aint strong but is vs the Yen but then again aint vs the Pound.
IE it is trading a mixed bag

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT July 1, 2014
May 2014 Construction Spending
Reply   



ALERT
0.10% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.20% (r 0.8%) prev. rev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
Reply   



News ALERT

55.3 vs. 55.8 exp. vs. 55.4 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

dc CB 13:58 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

Mtl JP 11:13 GMT
GM recalls more cars in 6 months than it sold in last 3 years combined ..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GM sold more cars in June 2014 than any other June since 2007. Just imagine if GM had killed more people, recalled more cars, been busted for more lies, and had more congressional hearings. As GM's head of sales exudes, this was "the third very strong month in a row for GM... in fact, the first half of the year was our best retail sales performance since 2008, driven by an outstanding second quarter."

We can only imagine the depths of FICO scores, terms of financing, and margin-crushing incentivization that dealers were subsidized into offering to sell this many 'kevorkianesque rolling sarcophagus." How did they do this? Government (+14%) and Rentals (+48%) - sound sustainable?

Record GM Recalls Lead To Best June Since 2007

HK [email protected] 13:57 GMT July 1, 2014
AUD/USD
Reply   


Big temptation to sell at 0.9485.

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI
Reply   



ALERT
57.3 vs. 57.5 exp. vs. 57.5 flash

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Mtl JP 13:37 GMT July 1, 2014
BIS says...
Reply   
84th BIS Annual Report, 2013/2014 - 29 June 2014
---
... To return to sustainable and balanced growth, policies need to go beyond their traditional focus on the business cycle and take a longer-term perspective ... The only source of lasting prosperity is a stronger supply side. It is essential to move away from debt as the main engine of growth. ... and that the only source of lasting prosperity is a stronger supply side, notably higher productivity growth (pdf)
-
there it is Bottom Line then:
higher productivity growth. producing more with same amount of labor
--
side note: "Also worrying (to the BIS) is the growing temptation for nation states to withdraw from the laborious but invaluable task of fostering international integration"

Mtl JP 13:19 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

Lew says China's currency is undervalued
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew on Tuesday said that China's currency remains undervalued. U.S. and Chinese officials will discuss economic issues at an annual Strategic and Economic dialogue meeting in Beijing next week. In a preview of the talks at the U.S.-China Business Council, Lew said progress on bilateral issues had been "mixed" over the past year. He said China seemed to follow a path of "two steps forward and part of a step back" on the exchange rate. Although the yuan has appreciated by 14% since 2010, it "still needs to appreciate more, it is undervalued," Lew said. There are concerns that China is holding down the value of its currency to give it an advantage over U.S. exporters. Lew said there was "pretty clear" evidence that China was intervening to weaken the yuan. He called for China to be more transparent about its exchange rate policy.

dc CB 13:12 GMT July 1, 2014
Stox
Reply   
$2.50 - $3.25 billion POMO today

Plus all that new(other people's) money that Fund Managers need to "put to work".

also: Where the Free Money (0%) went on the 1st Half:

Deals worth nearly $1.77 trillion were announced in the first six months of 2014, according to Thomson Reuters, up nearly 73 percent from the period a year earlier.....

“At times,” Mr. Arcano said, “it feels like we’re drinking out of a fire hose.”


Mergers Hit a 7-Year High, Propelled by a Series of Blockbuster Deals

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:05 GMT July 1, 2014
BNP find and EURUSD

RKG, email just bounced

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:03 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? AUD
Reply   
In breakout mode above .9460.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:56 GMT July 1, 2014
BNP find and EURUSD

RKG, good to see you. Contact me with your new email

kl fs 12:56 GMT July 1, 2014
BNP find and EURUSD

you should buy if you expect sellers only at those levels, still juicy pips to get there from here

SaaR KaL 12:54 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment

HK
AUDUSD?
Sure possible
going with 50 to 100 pips above red is a good idea

HK [email protected] 12:52 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment



KAL

I suspect the Mkt. likes to eat some stops at the HI of the day.

Blore RKG 12:52 GMT July 1, 2014
BNP find and EURUSD
Reply   
quite a few in chatrooms suggesting the BNP fine should translate into EUR selling soon.. 1.3738 and 1.3817 are levels to watch - maybe the selling comes in around these levels. Or the maths of the fine is different ..

kl fs 12:46 GMT July 1, 2014
buy euro
Reply   
keep it simple lah, while above 1.3650 euro is a buy for now

SaaR KaL 12:39 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment



AUDUSD 3 hrs
IMO it is gonna have to correct south

Mtl JP 12:37 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment

GVI Forex john 11:45 // not that the following is supportive of any specific trade idea , so just a note:
the old economic idea that productivity growth - the ability to produce more with the same amount of labor - is fundamental to society's prosperity because population growth will always outrun it , is just that : old. And... wrong. And that is what is making the global CB policy-making printers old... and wrong in their efforts of allegedly trying to support and spur demand with their money for nothing out of nothing.

SaaR KaL 12:36 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment



AUDUSD Daily

SaaR KaL 12:35 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment



Jay
I agree

weekly

GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:32 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment

John, do you remember the RBA jawboning for AUD 85? Current bid .9457

Livingston nh 12:30 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

a big event week so a spike to 1.3730 (50 bps above daily 89 ema) is possible as yesterday's close above 89 ema // two risks today are reaction to a US PMI and 3 yr auction (like the 2 yr reception?)

ECB will be status quo like the Fed -- so short term neutral to positive for EUR // so any downside has to come from market reaction to US data

SaaR KaL 12:30 GMT July 1, 2014
NDX Crash is starting
Reply   
I do not think NDX has anymore room north
Long term

crash Expected

GVI Forex john 12:25 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment

JP- they have been consistently been trying to meddle in the EUR exchange rate recently and so far the markets have not responded. Perhaps they will turn up the heat on Thursday?

Mtl JP 12:24 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

did I say left ? ... s/b Right Side

Mtl JP 12:23 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

some good news:
Emerging-Market Issuers Vulnerable on $2 Trillion Debt Binge

Emerging-market companies that took on more than $2 trillion of foreign borrowing since 2008 are vulnerable to an evaporation of funding at the first sign of trouble, according to the Bank for International Settlements. .../..
-
(Credit + Leverage + Debt Instruments) / Time = Instability
Once the left hand side of The Equation becomes active complaints of Low Volatility should poof

GVI Forex john 12:22 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EUR-based Heat Map. EUR broadly weaker (EURJPY higher on the day). It is still below its 20-day moving averages in most key relationships.




Mtl JP 12:12 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment

john 11:45 the ECB is on record for working on stability (of prices). They have also expressed confidence in industry to meet and handle the rest of business challenges without ECB's meddling in the exchange rate.

Mtl JP 12:07 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

The technical bet on fundamental ECB is simple:
IF you think ECB is going to be of help in your bias
sell eurdlr for initial 1.3650 trgt with a 1.3720/5 stop

NY JM 11:58 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Weak EUR crosses are keeping it below 1.37 while offsets pressure the USD lower elsewhere (except vs JPY)

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:54 GMT July 1, 2014
A Valuable Clue for Trading
Reply   

 

My latest article and worth reading

A Valuable Clue for Trading

GVI Forex john 11:45 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment

I don't think the employment report was "noise". German Retail Sales missed on Monday. Mfg and Employment data missed today. This is a NEW CHART: Latest ZEW and IFO surveys "expectations" minus "current situation". This chart provides the CHANGES in implied forecasts. Both Surveys are pessimistic for the next six months.

With Germany the growth engine of Europe, the ECB cannot ignore there developments. Personally, I think this must be addressed by lowering the EUR exchange rate by at least 10% over an extended period of time, but I don't see how this can be done?


HK [email protected] 11:39 GMT July 1, 2014
VIVA EL COMANDANTE!!!
Reply   


HAVANA (Reuters) - Cuban dealers sold 50 cars and four motorcycles nationwide in the first six months of 2014 ...
.....................................................................................
BETTER LIFE.

No crowded roads, less accidents, less noise, less pollution, less social flashing.

FACT: Cubanos mostly support Castro.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:28 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EURUSD 1,37 will be the pre-ECB meeting top - agree or disagree?

GVI Forex john 11:25 GMT July 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? GBPUSD
Reply   
Here is a pair I don't don't want to stand in front of. 20-day moving average 1.6918 and one of the strongest Mfg PMIs on record today. Only thing you MIGHT want worry about is whether GBP longs could be getting over-extended, but I don't think so.





Click on chart for COT Details





GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:18 GMT July 1, 2014
Video Updates
Reply   
I posted a EURUSD and GBPUSD video outlook uopdates today.

if you would like to see them, send me an EMAIL

Mtl JP 11:13 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

GM recalls more cars in 6 months than it sold in last 3 years combined ...

for perspective: Cuba sells 50 cars (yes, 50) in first six months of year

HAVANA (Reuters) - Cuban dealers sold 50 cars and four motorcycles nationwide in the first six months of 2014 ...
--

GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:53 GMT July 1, 2014
July Newsletter
Reply   

July, 2014

In this issue:
•Who Wins? Race to the Bottom or Race to the Top
•Forex Trading Outlook for July

Thoughts from the Forex Trenches

syd sf 10:47 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

Update :

seeing aud/usd stops placed at 9496 and aud/nzd @1.0835

probably tomorrow we can see a push up to those levels.

GBP

range shorts stopped - short term shorts s/l as well - b/out longs sold posn @32 but they are looking to buy again for 1.7224 (final leg up?)

eur

alot less interesting - feels like eventually it will end up a little higher but it is not easy trading.

gold .. ntg special here still long preferred.

GVI Forex john 10:20 GMT July 1, 2014
2Q14 Japan Quarterly Tankan Survey
Reply   






EARLIER: News ALERT
Big Mfg +15 vs. +15 exp. vs. +12 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 10:12 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
AUD/USD hit an 8-Month high following the RBA Meeting which left rates on hold. Dealer chatter noting an analyst note that perhaps the RBA had a high tolerance for the Aud currency strength

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Mixed European PMI and Unemployment data in session

PAR 09:32 GMT July 1, 2014
Portugal
Reply   
Regulator Temporarily Bans Short Selling of Banco Espírito Santo

Moves Comes Amid Worries About Financial Health of Parent Company

GVI Forex Blog 09:22 GMT July 1, 2014
Many PMI Reports Released. Data Mixed to Better. German Data Misses Again. China Improving?
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CA- MKT PMI, US- PMIs

The Japanese Quarterly Tankan Survey improved despite the April Sales tax increase. Japanese and Chinese data were mostly better. The Australian PMI eased In Europe, German manufacturing PMI and employment data both missed. The UK manufacturing PMI improved. See a slew of PMI reports on the Forex Forum.

Many PMI Reports Released. Data Mixed to Better. German Data Misses Again. China Improving?

PAR 09:14 GMT July 1, 2014
BNP Paribas
Reply   
BNP Paribas up 4% after losing $ 9 billion on a US fine . Will not cut dividend nor raise capital .

Perth Wtr 09:12 GMT July 1, 2014
Euro
Reply   
Buy small 1.3682, limit buy 1.3668 bigger, stop 1.3636

GVI Forex john 09:08 GMT July 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • Markets are in a mild risk-on  posture after several stronger than expected PMI reports.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly higher. Yields on the European periphery are mixed to unchanged.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are up. Most see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.55%, +2 bp.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 EZ Unemployment
Reply   




ALERT
11.6% vs. 11.70% exp. vs. +11.70% (r11.60%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:48 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 Swiss PMI
Reply   


EARLIER: Swiss PMI improves to 54.0...

GVI Forex john 08:45 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 Manufacturing PMI

U.K. Manufacturing PMI better than forecast. Overall level remains high...

PAR 08:39 GMT July 1, 2014
Sarkozy Arrested ?

Apparently he could face a $ 9 billion fine . LoL

GVI Forex john 08:36 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 Japan final PMI



EARLIER: Final Japanese PMI. Second-tier release but revised higher...

GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 Australia PMI

AU PMI weakens,..

GVI Forex john 08:32 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 Manufacturing PMI
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --


57.5 vs. 56.8 exp. vs. 57.0 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:29 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 China PMI's

China PMIs mixed.

Paris ib 08:22 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment

Euro not impacted by German NOISE. :-)

GVI Forex john 08:20 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment

German Unemployment UNEXPECTEDLY rises (lower is better). Unemployment rate steady.


Paris ib 08:18 GMT July 1, 2014
Sarkozy Arrested ?

Thanks JP. I can't decide if we live in a weird world or a weird historical moment. :-)

Paris ib 08:16 GMT July 1, 2014
Sarkozy Arrested ?

Here are the details. This is a man who according to some sources is or was a CIA asset.

The CIA connection

Sarkozy Held

Mtl JP 08:16 GMT July 1, 2014
Sarkozy Arrested ?

fwiw... http://www.worldbulletin.net/world/139795/french-ex-president-sarkozy-arrested-updated

GVI Forex john 08:14 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI

EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMI. Eurozone and, Germany revised down from flash estimates. France Revised higher...


swiss frank 08:14 GMT July 1, 2014
Sarkozy Arrested ?

Detained for questioning regarding the use of informants in the last election. Or something like that.

Paris ib 08:12 GMT July 1, 2014
Sarkozy Arrested ?
Reply   
Just saw a news flash that Sarkozy has been arrested? Anyone know anything about this?

Paris ib 08:09 GMT July 1, 2014
World Cup Football

We have the strange Belgium U.S. bond buying. Attributed by Paul Craig Roberts to back door QE by the FED. We have the strange saga of the German Gold held by the NY FED. Almost none returned and now the order to return it to Germany has been rescinded, which I suppose is good news since apparently the German Gold is long gone. We have an unpopular President and and unpopular Congress and a foreign policy which is only popular with a few chinless deviants, Merkel and Hollande among them, but is not increasing confidence in the current leadership of the U.S...... USD positive? No.

GVI Forex john 08:00 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI
Reply   




ALERT

EZ- Final MFG PMI
51.8 vs. 51.9 (flash) exp. vs. 51.9
France
48.2 vs. 47.8 (flash) exp. vs. 47.8
Germany
52.0 vs. 52.4 (flash) exp. vs. 52.4


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 07:57 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 German Unemployment
Reply   





NEWS ALERT
rate: 6.70% vs. 6.70% exp. vs. 6.70% prev.
change: +9K vs. -10k exp. vs. +24K (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 07:54 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 Australia PMI
Reply   





Earlier News ALERT

48.9 vs. n/a exp. vs. 49.2 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mks alimin 07:52 GMT July 1, 2014
EUR

PAR, can buy euro now with closed eyes?

PAR 07:52 GMT July 1, 2014
World Cup Football
Reply   
Belgium preparation for match against USA .
Buying US treasuries ?



Over the last six months Belgium has started to behave eccentrically, even by Belgian standards. No, the small country of 11 million has not decided to stop making chocolate or waffles. It has decided to increase its buying of U.S. Treasury bonds...in a very big way. According to latest U.S. Treasury Department data, since August of 2013 entities in Belgium have purchased and held a stunning $215 billion of U.S. Treasuries. This figure is equivalent to about half the country's annual GDP, and equates to almost $20,000 for every living Belgian. Prior to that time, Belgium had held its cache fairly steady at around $170-$190 billion. But by March, that total had increased by almost 130% (to $381 billion) in just seven months. The purchases represented 61% of the total increase in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries over that time frame. Given the fact that Belgium, as of last September, had less than 3% of the Treasury bonds held by foreign sources, this is strange behavior indeed.

GVI Forex john 07:51 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 China PMI's
Reply   




EARLIER: China PMI's
NBS: 51.0 vs. 51.0 exp vs. 50.8 prev.
HSBC: 50.7 vs. 50.8 exp. vs. 50.8 flash


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 07:49 GMT July 1, 2014
June 2014 Japan final PMI
Reply   






EARLIER NEWS ALERT
51.5 vs. 51.1 exp. vs. 51.1 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 07:47 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

June 30, 2014 Gallup:

Americans Losing Confidence in All Branches of U.S. Gov't
Confidence hits six-year low for presidency; record lows for Supreme Court, Congress
--
Bottom Line:
- none of serious consequence just yet.

Paris ib 07:32 GMT July 1, 2014
EUR

And that PAR is the technical definition of recession.

PAR 07:32 GMT July 1, 2014
EUR
Reply   
Euro to test above 1.3700 as more and more analysts downgrade US growth . Could well be that also Q2 in USA is negative .

Paris ib 07:31 GMT July 1, 2014
The USD Index - Under Pressure
Reply   
"The looting of Europe by Wall Street has gone beyond Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Ukraine, and is now focused on France and Great Britain. The American authorities are demanding $10 billion from France’s largest bank on a trumped-up charge of financing trade with Iran, as if it is any business whatsoever of Washington’s who French banks choose to finance. And despite Great Britain’s total subservience to Washington, Barclays bank has a civil fraud suit filed against it by the NY State Attorney General."

The plan seems clear. But 10 billion here or there will not be enough if the massive capital inflows from the rest of the world into the United States are not resumed. The USD index thus remains a good gauge of future U.S. economic activity and it's under pressure right now.

The New Cold War

London 07:25 GMT July 1, 2014
The big view
Reply   
A currency isn’t the stock price of a country. Many people assume that when a country’s economic fundamentals improve, the currency should appreciate. That’s probably based on the idea that a currency is like a stock. When a company’s results increase, usually the stock price goes up. The same thing should happen with a country. But it’s not necessarily true, and we saw that overnight with USD. The economic news was as usual favorable, but that didn’t matter to the market. Pending home sales for May were much much higher than expected -- +6.1% mom instead of the market consensus of +1.5%, and far higher than +0.4% in April. This suggests that the economy is indeed recovering from the disappointing first quarter, and that GDP will be higher in Q2 than in Q1, because housing sales add to GDP (real estate brokers’ commissions and all that). The Chicago PMI disappointed but the three-month average is still the highest for several years and the details were solid. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey was better than expected. There was also a speech by San Francisco Fed President Williams, who said he expected GDP to run around 3% for the rest of the year, a fairly healthy pace, and for the unemployment rate to hit 6% by the end of the year. Yet bond yields declined by 1 or 2 bps, as did the implied interest rate on Fed Funds futures, and the dollar weakened against most of the G10 currencies. Month-end buying may have been responsible; we’ll have to see whether any of the move is reversed over the coming week.

Posted with permission of global-view.com

Best forex system

Paris ib 07:23 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

"American troops from the United States will be dispatched to Europe starting in October to help respond to Russian aggression in Ukraine"

Russian aggression? You mean the VOTE. A vote in Crimea is now classified as aggression. Oh right. This insanity continues.

This particular 'conflict' is likely to have a negative impact on European business though American business is reportedly not pleased. "The poor US economic outlook has brought America’s two largest business lobbies–the US Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers (or what is left of them) into conflict with the Obama regime’s threat of further sanctions against Russia.

According to Bloomberg News, beginning tomorrow (June 26), the business groups will run advertisements in the New York Times, Wall St Journal, and Washington Post opposing any further sanctions on Russia. The US business organizations say that the sanctions will harm their profits and result in layoffs of American workers."

Any chance of stopping the chinless deviants?

A New Recession

Mtl JP 07:13 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

Poroshenko ends Ukraine ceasefire, renews operations against rebels - rtrs
-
Jun. 30, 2014 WASHINGTON -- NATO’s top military commander said Monday that American troops from the United States will be dispatched to Europe starting in October to help respond to Russian aggression in Ukraine.
--
Sofar
- Brent is steady around $112.50
- Gold is slightly UP



SaaR KaL 06:18 GMT July 1, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!!



with every 23 pip spikes
above red

jkt abel 05:23 GMT July 1, 2014
buy euro
Reply   
buy 1.3685, buy more in 1.3650-1.3670, target open, for now 1.3745 will do

KL KL 05:05 GMT July 1, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!!
Reply   
...Doooomsh...woke up by Sell AUD Alarm......LOL

in short aussie relentlessly .94483...adding and add relentlessly higher...hope to cover a bit lower than here or chased it o .955 and cover higher.....LOL.....the wonders of averaging....DFM...DYOR..imvho...gl gt

Dillon AL 04:46 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

Oh come on. Reverse repos are nothing new. That is how the FED when it was not quite so transparent used to signal a tightening of some degree hence why in the good ole days we had FED watchers for they were meant to be the elite economists that could interpret into plain English what the FED was doing.
They just haven't used them for a while and all the new boys think they invented something
in simplistic plain language:
A repo is granting liquidity a reverse repo is withdrawing liquidity. Simple eh..

GVI Forex Blog 04:40 GMT July 1, 2014 Reply   
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +1.3%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi -0.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Hang Seng closed, Sept S&P500 +0.1% at 1,955 ***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** -

radeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan Q2 Tankan meets estimates, CAPEX projections spike; China twin PMIs steady - Source TradeTheNews.com

Hong Kong Qindex 03:21 GMT July 1, 2014
EUR/USD : Current Comments
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/USD : The market is expected to consolidate within the weekly cycle pivot centres at 1.3663 - 1.3740 (marked with yellow colour, see front page of qindex.com). The first member of the weekly cycle upper limits is 1.3817 (middle part of the front page).


Qindex.com

Quantum Index Analysis

GVI Forex 01:46 GMT July 1, 2014
Chna

NEWS: CHINA HSBC JUN FINAL PMI 50.7 VS FLASH 50.8; MAY FINAL 49.4

GVI Forex 01:46 GMT July 1, 2014
Chna

NEWS: CHINA HSBC JUN FINAL PMI 50.7 VS FLASH 50.8; MAY FINAL 49.4

dc CB 01:20 GMT July 1, 2014
Global Markets News

dc CB 17:50 GMT
Today's RevRepo...Window Day
$339.481 BILLION
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Fed has many tools in its arsenal and one of which are reverse repos which are confusing to most and even more difficult to explain to the public.

The Fed’s own description reads as follows: “When the Desk conducts an overnight RRP, it is selling an asset held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) with an agreement to buy it back on the next business day. This leaves the SOMA portfolio the same size, but shifts a liability on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet from “deposits” to a reverse repo while the trade is outstanding.” Got that?

Some are pointing out that RRPs have been affected quarter end equity prices, perhaps not so coincidentally, at the same time. The Fed has been doing these reverse repos since quarter end December 2013. The effects on markets are clear:

Quarter Ends Positive But With A Whimper

GVI Forex 01:00 GMT July 1, 2014
Chna
Reply   
NEWS: CHINA CFLP JUNE PMI 51.0 VS MAY 50.8

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:10 GMT July 1, 2014
Japan Tankan

Posted Monday on GVIForex

Tankan
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:20 GMT 06/30/2014 - My Profile
Quotes from Danske Bank:

-In Japan focus this week will mainly be on the release of the Tankan business survey for Q2 released by Bank of Japan (BoJ). We expect the Tankan business survey to show a sharp deterioration in current conditions in Q2 for both large manufacturers and non-manufacturers, underscoring that the Japanese economy probably contracted in Q2 in the wake of the consumption tax hike in April.

-On the other hand, we expect to see an improvement in future conditions, suggesting that Japan will return to moderate growth in Q3. This increases the likelihood that BoJ will not announce additional easing in 2014. Industrial production for May will also be released this week.

-We expect industrial production to have increased slightly by 0.2% m/m on the back of a 2.8% m/m drop in April. The development in industrial production also suggests that GDP is poised to contract in Q2 and so far there are no signs of a substantial rebound in Q3. In general, hard data currently paints a weaker picture of the Japanese economy than business surveys.

Source: FXWire Pro - Research & Analysis
Reply

GVIForex 00:02 GMT July 1, 2014
Japan Tankan
Reply   
19:50 *(JP) JAPAN Q2 TANKAN LARGE MANUFACTURING INDEX: 12 (deteriorates for the 1st time in 6 quarters) V 15E; LARGE ALL INDUSTRIAL CAPEX: 7.4% V 6.0%E; LARGE MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK: 15 V 17E

- Large Non-Manufacturing Index: 19 v 19e
- Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook: 19 v 20e
- Small Manufacturing Index: 1 v 0e - Small Manufacturing Outlook: 3 v 1e
- Small Non-manufacturing Index: 2 v 2e
- Small Non-manufacturing Outlook: 0 v 2e
- Source TradeTheNews.com

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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