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Forex Forum Archive for 07/02/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Blog 23:51 GMT July 2, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index pulls further away from eight-month trough * Solid U.S. private-sector hiring lifts hope for nonfarm payrolls * Aussie dollar eyes RBA speech, retail sales data

FOREX-Dollar takes heart from ADP report, jobs data next test

Brock Thor 23:33 GMT July 2, 2014
GBP/JPY

GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Forex Tribe ...'medium term bullish'
-we now trade only long positions above173.65.
-breakout of 174.50 will give a new buy signal to 175.

Mtl JP 23:27 GMT July 2, 2014
Americans living in Canada
Reply   
never mind canadian sovereignty ... it is not there to protect you from your govt grab

forewarned = forearmed:

Canadian institutions scramble in race to comply with FATCA

.. "On June 19, Parliament passed the implementing legislation. Its main purpose is to track down Americans who are avoiding their obligations to pay U.S. tax on their worldwide income. The law requires most Canadian financial institutions to report the financial activities of their American clients to the Canada Revenue Agency, who will then provide it to the IRS pursuant to existing agreements with the U.S." .../..

Brock Thor 23:18 GMT July 2, 2014
GBP/JPY
Reply   
Reuters
Calling out long gbp/jpy .
Break of174.84 trips stops and lack of Res should see swift gains.
clear run to 180.
' ...clear run to 180 '
_------------------

I'll go long again at some point.
I've been long until it runs out a gas.
Grabbing 30-60 pip profits 3 good trades +1 disappointment.
We'll see.

dc CB 21:39 GMT July 2, 2014
"Exorcism is a form of charity that benefits those who suffer"

The real question, as it seems this Pope is "for real'.

How Long can he last. Or is this the sign of a Turn.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The departures came three days after the arrest of an official in another Vatican financial department, Monsignor Nunzio Scarano. The Italian authorities said he was a suspect in two inquiries involving alleged corruption and money laundering respectively.

News World news Vatican Vatican bank promises sweeping change as senior staff resign

syd sf 21:30 GMT July 2, 2014
morning
Reply   
gbp seems the clearest one

this morning - all bots are selling at the moment 66 67 68 69

once it finds a low probably hits up to 1.7205 in early london - which has been the pattern for the last couple of days.

everything else is all over the shop -- bit hard to be too directional there.

Mtl JP 21:27 GMT July 2, 2014
"Exorcism is a form of charity that benefits those who suffer"
Reply   
Vatican officially recognizes international group of 250 exorcists - L’Osservatore Romano

The Vatican has formally recognized the International Association of Exorcists, a group of 250 priests in 30 countries who liberate the faithful from demons. .../..
--
Bottom Line:
better to stay away from debt, especially excess debt

dc CB 21:17 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??



Ms Pelosi wears Clairol's "Rabbit Brown"
Ms Yellen sports "Washington's Dust"
Ms Largarde loves "Vichy Blanc"

Your Source

Tallinn viies 21:15 GMT July 2, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
would be seller near 1,3675.
buyer near 1,3585

Mtl JP 21:10 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

dc CB 20:50 is that crack about Neil Irwin an expression of awe or cynicism ?

Mtl JP 21:02 GMT July 2, 2014
What worries Li-Ka-shing: plebians at the gate
Reply   
this a worry of every despot across cultures and human history

The Three Worries Of China’s Richest Tycoon Li Ka-shing
1) in the era of the globalization and knowledge economy, differing intelligence, capability and effort have turned the imbalance of opportunities into a new norm
root of risk to the overlords*
2) limitations of national resources may become a problem for future development
something that innovation, invention and shift in attitudes can fix: low risk to the overlords*
3) high social welfare burden as well as anger and unrest due to disparity may prolong social stagnation
forget social stagnation and remain alert for rise of the plebs bearing torches and pitchforks and heading for the overlords' palace: real and close risk to the overlords*
*italics is my comment
--

In a rare scene of disorder, Hong Kong police forcibly arrest 511 protesters calling for democracy

... “The younger generation, people under 30, have become very active,” ... “They’re worried about their economic futures. Those people only really know life under China and they don’t necessarily – even though I don’t agree with them – see things going in a positive direction. Integration is happening and that worries them.”../..

dc CB 20:50 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

In Depth Analysis By the NYT's Crack Economics Reporter
Neil Irwin:

Janet Yellen just delivered the most significant speech yet in her still-young Federal Reserve chairmanship. It doesn’t necessarily send any startling signals about what the Fed will do next month or even next year. But it tells us a great deal about how she will deal with new risks on the horizon from financial bubbles.


Gammy would never ever take away your toys. Now stop crying and be a good boy.

Loading... Edited by David Leonhardt Follow Us: Visit The Upshot on Facebook Visit The Upshot on Twitter Follow The Upshot via RSS The Upshot Monetary Policy Janet Yellen Signals She Won’t Raise Rates to Fight Bubbles

GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT July 2, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

Thursday July 3, 2014
AU Retail Sales
DE SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
EZ SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
GB SVC PMI Current Economic Measure
EZ Europe Cntl Bank Rates Seem Steady
US Initial Claims & Cont Claims Current View
US Payrolls % Jobless %  Key Measure of Growth
US Markit SVC PMI final Current Economic Measure
US ISM SVC PMI Current Economic Measure

Friday July 4, 2014
US Holiday


Mtl JP 20:35 GMT July 2, 2014
‘Boom’-erang at point of no return? Australian economic boom ending

Iron Ore fetching <$100/ton sees a lot of miners $queal but it is good for those who use it as base input material as lower input cost = more profit ceteris paribus

dc CB 20:20 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??



yup

HK [email protected] 19:53 GMT July 2, 2014
‘Boom’-erang at point of no return? Australian economic boom ending
Reply   
......

Right now, the Australian banking system resembles the European and US equivalents just before the 'Great Financial Crash' of 2008, and it's clear that the Australian government has been managing a bubble, not an economy for the last six years. Scarily, the balance sheets of two of Australia's four pillar-banks have cash-to-asset ratios that are lower than what Lehman Brothers held in the US 15 months before its collapse. Worse again, the asset sheets of each of the 'big four' financial institutions represent close to half of Australia's total GDP – Lehman's was just five per cent of the American whole, so it's obvious that this is contrived to end extremely badly.
Furthermore, Australia has the highest property price-to-income ratio in the Western world allied to the largest value home-loans relative to family incomes.

So what’s all this 'wealth' based on? Is Australia somehow more technologically-advanced than the rest of the world? Does it have killer innovations that the rest of the world lacks? No, it doesn't. The entire bubble is based on mining minerals and exporting them to China and the latter country is beginning to rein in its manic house building programs as it looks to consolidate its future – as evidenced by the recent historic gas deal with Russia, which sees its focus switch to stronger partnership with its northern neighbor and a change of focus to industrial development rather than erecting residential developments, many of which lie empty.

As a result of this, the spot price of iron ore is beginning to fall and is predicted by some to return to its historic price of under $20 a metric ton by 2017 and possibly as early as next year. This would leave three of Australia's five largest mining companies bankrupt.

READ MORE

GVI Forex john 19:47 GMT July 2, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:46 GMT July 2, 2014
" Trade Ideas "

nice to see you posting again

got out earlier from noon at the pit close expecting what I saw yesterday...reluctance to be short overnight. Was almost going to post to you What! Not Now. :))

still hold puts on the ETF that have been red for some time on IRAQ.

Cheers


GVI Forex john 19:19 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

19-yr 2.625% late

GVI Forex Blog 19:13 GMT July 2, 2014 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: EZ, GB- Service PMIs, ECB, US- Weekly Jobless, Trade, Employment, Service PMIs

The ADP Private employment report saw a shockingly strong in crease of private jobs in June of +281K. Street expectations had been for a jobs increase on the order of 200K in the month. Equity and Fixed Income markets reacted positively to the data but the the USD did not.

Markets Go Into Risk-on Mode After Strong ADP Report. NFP and ECB Highlight Thursday

GVI Forex john 19:09 GMT July 2, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


dc CB 18:44 GMT July 2, 2014
Send lawyers, guns, and money...



The Envoy
written by Warren Zevon

1980 Zevon Music BMI
Nuclear arms in the Middle East
Israel is attacking the Iraqis
The Syrians are mad at the Lebanese
And Baghdad does whatever she please
Looks like another threat to world peace
For the envoy
Send the envoy . .


34 years, same ole same ole

Mtl JP 18:20 GMT July 2, 2014
Send lawyers, guns, and money...

dc CB 17:46 at a Unit cost US$110,000 seems like a relatively small $$$ order for Lockheed Martin.

but .. as long as it adds to GDP, it is all good nyet ?

Mtl JP 18:05 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Gold... frolicking around $1330 +
bit weird in light on light of 10-yr coming off in price

dc CB 17:53 GMT July 2, 2014
Send lawyers, guns, and money...

Purrrrrrfect for an After the Fourth realization the "we need the Safety of US Treasuries" around Tuesday.

dc CB 17:46 GMT July 2, 2014
Send lawyers, guns, and money...
Reply   
The battle for favoritism among the 'apparent' leaders in Iraq continues. Russia just delivered the second batch of Sukhoi fighter jets (which will be flown by Iraqi pilots and "are ready to provide air support to the armed forces"), and the US unloaded 4,000 additional Hellfire missiles to support Iraq's fight against the Islamist insurgents. While this morning the intelligentsia of mainstream media proclaimed "the situation in Iraq is calming down" predicated on the fact that oil prices were lower and stocks at record highs.

Russia Delivers 2nd Batch of Jets To Iraq As USA Unloads 4000 Hellfire Missiles

Mtl JP 17:46 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

It appears that
"The President meets with economists for lunch; the Vice President also attends
Old Family Dining Room
Closed Press"
is over now.

Earnest said that "He (the pres) is ready to hear from people...outside the traditional policy sphere"
you hear that john ?

Lahore FM 17:32 GMT July 2, 2014
" Trade Ideas "

Sell Crude
Entry: Target: Stop: 105.60**

stop is at 105.60

Lahore FM 17:31 GMT July 2, 2014
" Trade Ideas "

Sell Crude
Entry: 104.43 Target: 95 Stop: 106.60

sold crude now..can be a fairly good short.

let's see!

GVI Forex john 17:29 GMT July 2, 2014
Fundamentals for Trading
Reply   
Fundamentals for Trading. NEW EXCLUSIVE CHART: Updated after today's Canadian PMI data. No change in relative economic strengths: USD, CAD, CNY and AUD in that order.






Mtl JP 17:17 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

plz take this constructively:
Calendar shows
03/07/14 1:30 A AU Retail Sales n/a 0.20%
BUT does not indicate that Stevens is scheduled to yak before the Retail numbers release. I would expect a rating for Steven's yak higher than that for retail sales, as an example.

GVI Forex john 17:07 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I cannot reliably attach pip values to numbers, but the idea is to rate most highly the data the markets react most strongly to.

Mtl JP 17:03 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

ah c - thks
might "A" imply potential for 100pip + reaction and "B" for half that ?

dc CB 17:02 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

Goldman Sachs listened (and read) Janet Yellen's remarks at The IMF and see them "generally in line."

Despite waffling on for minutes about risk management and monitoring, no one at The Fed has mentioned the total carnage in the repo market, spike in fails-to-deliver, and record reverse repo window-dressing that just occurred.

The use of the term "reach for yield" twice and "bubble" 5 times, and admission that the Fed should never have popped the housing bubble, leaves us less sanguine than Goldman and wondering if this was Janet's subtle and nervous 'irrational exuberance" moment.

Goldman's Yellen Spech Post Mortem: "Nothing To See Here, Move Along"

GVI Forex john 17:00 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Letter is a ranking of Importance. A is the highest.

Mtl JP 16:54 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Forex john 16:21 / Are you lusting for the days when central banker was a shadow personality whose name was known only by a few, whose first order of day was to make sure to have enough Gold on hand to cover his liabilities and who did not pretend-fret over some "unemployment number" or fictitious "growth" and whose primary concern was that his money was "good" ?

Are you upset with public parade designed to garner celebrity points ?
--
plz tell what the Calendar's column between Time and Country means, and the letters in it. tia

GVI Forex Blog 16:42 GMT July 2, 2014 Reply   
July 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, July 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ, GB- Serice PMIs, ECB, US- Weekly Jobless, Trade, Employment, Service PMIs

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 3, 2014

GVI Forex john 16:39 GMT July 2, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, July 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ, GB- Serice PMIs, ECB, US- Weekly Jobless, Trade, Employment, Service PMIs

  • Far East: AU- Retail Sales.
  • Europe: EZ,GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, ECB.
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Trade, Monthly Employment, Service PMIs, Natural Gas, CA- Trade.


Mtl JP 16:35 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

usdyen gv chartpoints:
100 day 102.17
quote 101.82+
Res 2 101.80
Res 1 101.67
Pivot 101.46
-
usdyen prancing along with 10-yr in inverse relationship

dc CB 16:28 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??



Auction Cycle. Next week 3, 10, 30's Tues, Wed Thurs.

week before Clear the Decks to make space. Early Close Thurs...SellOff today?????

Stox should come under pressure after the holiday. The Facebook Emotional Rule.

Thurs is Super Packed with wipsaws all morning...traders will be gone by noon.

US Unemplyoy right at the start of Draaaagiiiii Presser. Following Dragggiiii, ISM Services.....

(PS one of the FaceBook "Researchers" from Cornell see "chart"

Livingston nh 16:26 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

Regulation ?? There are laws against robbing 7-11s or the local bodega -- TBTF was always resisted by policymakers but instead of DENIAL of Existence they have Regulated the concept, a surefire cure until the next bail-out when this Rube Goldberg structure collapses


GVI Forex john 16:25 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

As for NFP tomorrow, she clearly did not feel the need to prepare the markets for a shocking number.

10-yr 2.614% as bond traders move to defensive positions.

GVI Forex john 16:21 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I wonder if Yellen has been schooled by Greenspan. She has learned to give long empty respectful answers to meaningless questions.

If their goal is to say nothing, why do they make these appearances? They can do the same thing by staying home!

Mtl JP 16:14 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

typo / s/b transparency does not mean clarity

Mtl JP 16:12 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

Yellen claims to be transparent and communicative.
-
1) transparency does mean clarity
2) one can equally communicate Truth or lies

NY JM 16:08 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

It is called a cupcake interview.

It looked like a good start to the day but has gravitated into one of those typical low vol days in all markets.

US holiday week + ECB and US jobs tomorrow

Mtl JP 15:58 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

john I, fwiw, think Dennis has favored "long of Gold, short of Yen"

dc CB 15:55 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Between Two Ferns

GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Yellen Q&A on CNBC. Lagarde posing the questions so as JP indicates, its doubtful that Janet has not already seen all the q's beforehand.

Dillon AL 15:47 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

systemically important financial institutions
???
Can one have the list of these TBTF institutions?
and does this mean there are some less important institutions that can now be thrown to the wolves and would perhaps not pass stress tests ? again is there a list and can we have it.

GVI Forex john 15:43 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

JP- good point earlier on oil. As for gold, who knows? It lives in its own world. I would say easily that higher oil is a risk-on trade, However, even Dennis Gartman said he doesn't know if gold is risk-on or off. I have no idea either.

Mtl JP 15:42 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

looks like yellen is throwing any notions of free-market to the wind and turning towards dirigism:

(from the live blogue) The” to-do list” to build resilience in the financial system is daunting.

Here’s Yellen’s list: Key steps…include completion of the transition to full implementation of Basel III, including new liquidity requirements; enhanced prudential standards for systemically important firms, including risk-based capital requirements, a leverage ratio, and tighter prudential buffers for firms heavily reliant on short-term wholesale funding; expansion of the regulatory umbrella to incorporate all systemically important firms; the institution of an effective, cross-border resolution regime for systemically important financial institutions; and consideration of regulations, such as minimum margin requirements for securities financing transactions, to limit leverage in sectors beyond the banking sector and SIFIs.
--
That cross-border resolution regime is interesting

GVI Forex john 15:29 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Markets are in a risk-on (green) posture following the much stronger than expected U.S. ADP Private payroll data released early in the New York session.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are now broadly higher Yields on the European periphery are up as well. The German 10-yr bund is 1.290%, +4bp.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are up.  The 10-yr gilt is 2.75% +4bps. We see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.61%, +4 bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed.. U.S. shares are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Mtl JP 15:28 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk
Yellen willing to use regulation, not monetary policy to stem emerging bubbles, something financial markets have yet to realize.

GVI Forex Blog 15:25 GMT July 2, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The ADP report showed 281K jobs were added to private payrolls in June, stomping the consensus view and rising sharply from the 179K figure in May. The volatile factory orders data contracted more than expected in May, while inventories ticked up 0.8%, the biggest rise since Oct 2011

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: ADP Payrolls Report Crushes Expectations

Mtl JP 15:22 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

if not "even be men"...
what / who then ?

Mtl JP 15:19 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

Central bankers don’t have to be boring, or even be men, says Lagarde

dc CB 15:12 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

The Big Lie continues

YELLEN SAYS HIGHER INTEREST RATES IN THE EARLY 2000S WOULD NOT HAVE PREVENTED THE CRISIS, OR ADDRESSED SYSTEMIC RISKS IN THE ECONOMY

Mtl JP 15:09 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

live blog of lagarde interviewing yellen

just remember that these sisters have very highly likely orchestrated and rehearsed their theater..
for your benefit

GVI Forex john 15:08 GMT July 2, 2014
Yellen

No idea, but it looks like the IMF was not set up for the volume of watchers on the webcast? m getting nothing from them.

GVI Forex john 15:04 GMT July 2, 2014
Yellen

Webcast

GVI Forex john 15:04 GMT July 2, 2014
Yellen

Yellen text

Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

NY JM 15:02 GMT July 2, 2014
Yellen

... but she did warn that investors may be underestimating risk of future volatility.

Q&A up next

GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT July 2, 2014
Yellen
Reply   
Nothing on current policy...

Mtl JP 14:47 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

good economic news typically (but not always) sees crude pop UP in price

GVI Forex john 14:37 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??

Yellen in about 20 mins as scheduled. Check our Calendar on the homepage and at the top of the forum. Also post 13:17 GMT.

hk Q 14:35 GMT July 2, 2014
WHERE IS YELLEN??
Reply   
Loosing patience and going to sleep. cant wait anymore. thought she is speaking.

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT July 2, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -3.200 vs. -2.000 exp vs. +1.740 prev.
Gasoline: -1.200 vs. 0.0 exp vs. +0.710 prev.
Distillates: +0.975 vs. +1.0 exp vs. +1.20 prev.
Cap/Util:91.4% vs. 89.2% exp vs. 88.5% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 14:25 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Back to good news (economic) is bad news (for stocks)?

I just don't get it. Maybe its the algos who cannot adapt quickly? they work off "rules", not common sense.

Mtl JP 14:23 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

usdyen gv chartpoints:
100 day 102.17
Res 2 101.80
quote 101.75-ish
Res 1 101.67
Pivot 101.46

GVI Forex john 14:20 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



CHART: Lets see if they converge later?
Green S&P
blue USDJPY

GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:18 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

but USDJPY is reacting to higher bond yields

GVI Forex john 14:17 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

fwiw the S&P to USDJPY correlation is not working well on a day-trading basis today. Currently there is a pretty wide divergence between the two. USDJPY is up, but the S&P is not following.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:13 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

And note the correlation with USDJPY

GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.605% +4bp.

Bond market setting up for a stronger than originally expected payroll report tomorrow...

GVI Forex 14:07 GMT July 2, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Factory Orders

CORRECTION: FACTORY ORDERS FELL -0.50%

ORIGINAL POST (BELOW) CORRECTED.

Mtl JP 14:03 GMT July 2, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Jobs Survey Due. Later Yellen Speaks

u do not expect janet to make noise that would turn the herd , or do you ?

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT July 2, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Factory Orders
Reply   



ALERT
-0.50% vs. -0.30% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +0.80%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

London Chris 13:53 GMT July 2, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Jobs Survey Due. Later Yellen Speaks

Let's go Janet and give us another noise type comment.

GVI Forex john 13:51 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014 Canada Markit PMI



Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Markit mfg PMI higher. Canada turning higher?

Mtl JP 13:45 GMT July 2, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

me (JP 11:55) wonders... who else, besides Yellen, knows things "about the jobs data tomorrow" ?
we need someone who is IN the circle ...
-
10yr-note trading for just about $124.50 now

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014 Canada Markit PMI
Reply   




ALERT
53.5 vs. n/a exp. vs. 52.9 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:40 GMT July 2, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1.3650 will now set the bias.

1.3640 is current support, below it sees 1.3600-20 (includes a daily trendline)

On top, 1.3675 is again important (blocks 1.3700)

Mtl JP 13:40 GMT July 2, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Jobs Survey Due. Later Yellen Speaks

ISM from NY on deck shortly
- should nor be much of market mover
--
gv / what is the column listing a-b-c ect between Time and Country mean in your calendar header?

GVI Forex john 13:22 GMT July 2, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

We will just have to wait and see if Yellen comments on policy. She mentioned in her last press conference that she will use speeches among other things to send updates on policy. I see no compelling reason for her to tweak policy today although by now she does know something, but not everything) about the jobs data tomorrow.

GVI Forex john 13:17 GMT July 2, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   
Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Financial Stability
At the Inaugural Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture at the International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.
11:00 am ET

Webcast

SaaR KaL 13:08 GMT July 2, 2014
Pairs Forecast

Gold shorts for 2 weeks
Tgt < 1260

Mtl JP 13:08 GMT July 2, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Jobs Survey Due. Later Yellen Speaks

what is afternoon in London is still morning (11am NYT) in New York

Mtl JP 13:03 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

euro testing Monday's opening level here
if it gives ... the round number at 1.36 is next supoport

GVIForex 12:58 GMT July 2, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Jobs Survey Due. Later Yellen Speaks

Fed Chair Yellen is due to speak at the IMF in Washington later in the afternoon, alongside a panel conversation with IMF President Lagarde. However, the topic of conversation is expected to cover the role that central banks should play in financial stability. This suggests that Fed Chair Yellen will reveal little new about the outlook for monetary policy.

Lloyds Bank

Livingston nh 12:56 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

Although Fed has disavowed its unemployment rate forward guidance and most don't expect much below 6% for another 18 mos or more (see Williams' speech) employment is a key factor for the NAIRU believers (Yellen) - sharp increases in employment will trigger nervous reactions and increase inflation expectations among the doves

JP - True Believers are more dangerous than liars

Paris ib 12:48 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

Helmets on.

Livingston nh 12:48 GMT July 2, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EUR/USD failed to hold above the daily 89 ema (1.3681)--But now ADP has raised the bar for tomorrow's events - June has usually lowest plug factor in Q2 and education figs can be distorted in May or June ("Bad weather" extended school year in some states)

So a good NFP effect on USD might be diminished by today's fig

Paris ib 12:47 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

JP - so welcome the flat lining economy !!

GVI Forex john 12:47 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

Now the bar is set high for Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow. Lots of room for disappointment. NFP comes out a few minutes before the ECB Draghi Press Conference.

Mtl JP 12:43 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

kind of Hilsenrath in WSJ to inform us that "Yellen and Lagarde take stock of lessons from crises past"

at the gathering of the most powerful women in finance , "Yellen will then take questions from Christine Lagarde, who emerged as the IMF’s current leader after crisis spread to the developed world. What did these women learn while rising to power in an epoch of financial turmoil?

“Financial crashes can be extremely costly, and their clean-up excessively long and complex,” Ms. Lagarde said in May. “Financial stability is an essential policy objective, and one that is here to stay.”

From there, however, she has more questions than answers. .../..
--
ya hear that ? “Financial stability is an essential policy objective, and one that is here to stay.”

London Chris 12:39 GMT July 2, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

For euro bulls ---- have you given up hope for 1.3750?

Paris ib 12:39 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

JP - Janet and the hag Lagarde.... can't wait. (Just so you know I'm not being sexist here IMVHO Trichet is also a hag.)

GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:33 GMT July 2, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

As I noted yesterday -- as 1.3650 trades

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:38 GMT 07/01/2014 - My Profile
This is a question that will force some opinions on the risk

Which has a better chance of trading pre-ECB and NFP

1.3650 or 1.3700?

I see 1.3650 as more at risk, agree or disagree?

Mtl JP 12:31 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

ib janet "noise" yellen has her marching orders from the BIS.
it is incumbent upon her to provide the justifiers
in less than 3 hours she will tells the truths in an exchange with lagarde

GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:26 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

ib (and others)

I suggest reading our July newsletter and the article (see below) as it covers what you are asking

Race to the Bottom and Race to the Top

GVI Forex john 12:25 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

Monthly jobs U.S.


ADP data much stronger than forecast. Previous data were unrevised.






Click on chart for nearly 15-yr history




Mtl JP 12:22 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

76 thousand miss by "experts" is a shot wide off the mark by 37%

Paris ib 12:21 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

It might be NOISE. We won't know till they tell us how they see it. Is this NOISE or not? I would guess that since the TAPER continues (ending in October) it needs to be seen as a real statistic (things are getting better WE are doing a good job). So this is not NOISE. When it comes to actually HIKING short term rates the question becomes slightly more complicated. So we may see a whole new selection of what is and what is not NOISE at that point.

SaaR KaL 12:20 GMT July 2, 2014
Pairs Forecast

1.0610 to 1.0588
Longing USDCAD

PAR 12:16 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

Maybe it is just NOISE .

GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT July 2, 2014
June 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment

Much stronger than expected.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:06 GMT July 2, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Jobs Survey Due. Later Yellen Speaks

Focus, however, will likely fall firmly on data and events from the US later in the afternoon. June ADP employment report for the month of June will be of particular note, ahead of Thursday’s employment report. We forecast the ADP report to show a 210k rise in employment compared with 179k in May. Release of May factory orders later in the afternoon are anticipated to post a decline of 0.2% on the month. This largely reflects the drop in durable goods orders in May. Durable goods orders account for approximately 50% of total factory orders.

Lloyds Bank

Mtl JP 11:55 GMT July 2, 2014
A Warning to All Traders

from an earlier - June 16 - post on ZH:

"Cluster Of Central Banks" Have Secretly Invested $29 Trillion In The Market , referring to an article published in FT

... "a cluster of central banking investors has become major players on world equity markets." ...

SaaR KaL 11:35 GMT July 2, 2014
Pairs Forecast

Check out EURCAD
AND EURGBP

Crosses KaL

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:30 GMT July 2, 2014
A Warning to All Traders
Reply   
This is my latest article and a timely one for the start of the 2H2014 trading. I strongly suggest reading it.

One role of an advocate is to inform. This can be in the form of keeping members up-to-date on latest regulatory news or passing on insights that they might not find elsewhere. This article focuses on the latter in a warning to all traders...

A Warning to All Traders

SaaR KaL 11:09 GMT July 2, 2014
Pairs Forecast

USDCAD From Wed to Thursday will long

SaaR KaL 11:06 GMT July 2, 2014
Pairs Forecast

USDCAD Very Soon Long
Check da chart

SaaR KaL 11:06 GMT July 2, 2014
Pairs Forecast
Reply   
Check this out

KaL Levels

PAR 10:47 GMT July 2, 2014
Noise
Reply   
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Drivers heading out for the Independence Day holiday face the highest gasoline prices since 2008 thanks to Iraq tensions, but $5-a-gallon record-breaking prices are out of the question.

Crude prices haven’t even gained more than $1 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange since turmoil in Iraq hit the headlines in the first half of June.

“North American oil prices have advanced by just a few pennies since Iraqi violence put a question mark around the future stability of supply, but U.S. consumers will still see the most expensive July 4th gasoline prices in six years,” according to analysts at GasBuddy.com.

GVI Forex Blog 10:18 GMT July 2, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP/USD hit fresh 6-year highs above 1.7170 after UK Jun PMI Construction data beat expectations and came in at a 4-month high. The Sterling currency was also supported after UK housing prices surpassed their 2007 peak

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK House Prices move above 2007 peak levels

nw kw 09:43 GMT July 2, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Jobs Survey Due. Later Yelen Speaks

she thinking how to get u/j up for rate hike before gbp think there is cat in the bag for usd

Mtl JP 09:23 GMT July 2, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Jobs Survey Due. Later Yelen Speaks

re Yellen Speaks
-
What is the Expectation: will she be telling Truth or Lies ?

nw 09:03 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

aud/eur see if dropping/

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT July 2, 2014
May 2014 Eurozone PPI
Reply   




ALERT
mm: -0.1% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
yy: -1.00% vs. -1.00% exp. vs. -1.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

london red 08:51 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Gambler takes his profit on short euro at 56

nw kw 08:49 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

xaueur soft further eur week ness

GVI Forex Blog 08:48 GMT July 2, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Jobs Survey Due. Later Yellen Speaks
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: ADP Private Jobs, Factory Orders, Yellen

On Wednesday, the highlights are the ADP Private employment report and a key speech by Fed Chair Yellen. Many of Friday's U.S. reports have been pushed forward to Thursday. The monthly U.S. Employment report could have a significant impact on the tone of the USD.

U.S. ADP Private Jobs Survey Due. Later Yellen Speaks

GVI Forex john 08:38 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   


  • Markets are in a neutral risk  posture heading into several major events  on Thursday Key ADP Private Payrolls are due today.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are roughly steady Yields on the European periphery are mixed.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are up. We see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.55%, -2 bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed to higher. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Hong Kong AceTrader 08:31 GMT July 2, 2014
AceTrade Jul 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views


GBP/USD - .. Sterling's stellar performance in 2014 is backed up by positive fundamentals as U.K. growth is the strongest in the G7 countries n recent upbeat eco. data adds to market speculation of a first hike in Britain's interest rate sooner rather than later.

The Telegraph reported on Tuesday U.K. manufacturing sector expanded for a 16th consecutive month amid swollen order books n increased production. Strong demand for orders both at home and abroad also meant manufacturers took on staff at their quickest pace since March 2011.

Survey compilers Markit's senior economist Rob Dobson said "UK manufacturing continued to flourish in Jun, rounding off one of the best quarters for the sector over the past two decades." He added "With levels of production surging higher, and order books swollen by a further upswing in demand from both domestic and overseas clients, job creation accelerated to its highest for over 3 years."


The pound eases in Asia in tandem with intra-day retreat in eur/usd after yesterday's rally to a fresh 5-1/2 year peak of 1.7167. The pound jumped from 1.7102 to 1.7136 after U.K. mfg PMI beat estimate n climbed to 57.5 vs forecast of 56.8, st specs were reported buying cable on the data, price later rose to session high of 1.7167 near NY midday b4 pulling back on profit-taking.

Looks like the usual range trading in Asia would continue b4 sterling's recent strong ascent resumes as the trend is your trend. Initial bids are noted at 1.7140-30 n more below with stops reported below yesterday's low at 1.7096.
On the upside, a mixture of selling interest n stops is touted at 1.7465/70. Pay attention to U.K. construction PMI, forecast for Jun is 59.5 vs previous reading of 60.0, although this is the least of the important 3 PMIs, if actual is higher than street estimate, this will give sterling bulls another reason to take the pound higher.

SaaR KaL 08:23 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Red
You short EURUSD?
Now I am and Long USDCHF

PAR 08:10 GMT July 2, 2014
TLTRO
Reply   
BNP Paribas to use TLTRO to pay its US Fine ?

GVI Forex 08:03 GMT July 2, 2014
Data Alert
Reply   
This morning is light in terms of data from Europe. Spain’s June unemployment and euro area May PPI data are both scheduled for release. The latter will probably show that factory gate inflation remained unchanged on the month, adding little insight ahead of the ECB governing council decision on Thursday. UK June construction PMI survey data, also due out this morning, is anticipated to continue its gradual decline from a January high of 64.6. Consensus estimates project a modest decline to 59.8 from 60 in May. Today’s survey will be of interest given recent macroprudential efforts to cool residential house prices and the recent decline of mortgage approvals. Residential housing has been a key driver behind the improvement in construction activity this year.

Lloyds Bank

london red 07:32 GMT July 2, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Jay re spreads, normally keep an eye on 10's day to day but you have them all to hand as at any point in time the currency can start correlating with any of them and honestly with just about anything else, so you need it all, bonds, indices. thats fine when your calendar is empty, otherwise its just impossible and i leave it to support and resistance levels.

nw kw 07:30 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

o I see your on kick ball

nw kw 07:29 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

add usd/nzd to for its a good usd sentiment indictor so see if it drops and take aud and cat with it


all this pips tonight suggestions are only $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

nw kw 07:25 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

eur/nzd if eur lives or dop like rock

nw kw 07:23 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

eur/cat trend or reversal

nw 07:22 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

Thor
whuts do see that we can compound

aud/nzd?

nw kw 07:19 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

Thor
whuts do see that we can compound

gbp/chf what you see

nw kw 07:16 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

are bonds going to help u/j it did yesterday or yen pars///////////////////// so what now

Hong Kong AceTrader 06:53 GMT July 2, 2014
AceTrader Jul 2: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
Reply   
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11920

02 Jul 2014 04:12GMT

Dlr's intra-day stronger-than-expected rebound
to 11930 confirms 1st leg of correction from Friday's
4-1/2 month top at 12105 has ended at 11770 yesterday.

As long as 11980 (61.8% r) holds, another fall is
likely 'later', below 11835 would yield 11790/00.


STRATEGY : Stand aside

RES : 11930/11975/12005

SUP : 11835/11790/11770

nw kw 06:52 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

hang sing im hiding in so if it crashes il short fx

GVI Forex Blog 06:46 GMT July 2, 2014 Reply   
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.5%, S&P/ASX +1.2%, Kospi +0.8%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng +1.0%, Sept S&P500 +0.1% at 1,967 ***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** -

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Australia records its biggest trade deficit in 18 months as China demand crumbles - Source TradeTheNews.com

nw kw 06:44 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

platinum up big to gold can move

nw kw 06:43 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

same for beef//part small wars to get cheaper commodity's

beans are up big,bad weather can get usd into buying mod from big funds

nw kw 06:39 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

chin kissed cats a.ss for oil so strong commodities/and food in usa //china has all usa and cad pig farms and gave us inflation sere up, so bad chin for crashing usa from pig /pigs are going to eat us up like rats

nw kw 06:26 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar

Dollar weakness is structural as international trade is shifting away from using dollars in favor off china,2munts ago china using cad formal banking hub/////les usd commodity pricing and /f shadow banking///

PAR 06:19 GMT July 2, 2014
US Dollar
Reply   
Dollar weakness is structural as international trade is shifting away from using dollars in favor of euro, remimbi ,ruble and other currencies.

Avoiding US clearing centers and US spying is becoming an objective and necessity in international trade .

manila tom 05:21 GMT July 2, 2014
buy euro
Reply   
bought 1.3672, adding close to 1.3650, stop 1.3632, target 1.3730

GVI Forex Blog 03:41 GMT July 2, 2014 Reply   
The fastest growth in Chinese manufacturing in this year coupled with an unexpected strength

Morning Briefing : 02-Jul-2014 -0340 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:36 GMT July 2, 2014
AceTrader Jul 2: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

02 Jul 2014 02:15GMT

USD/JPY - ... The greenback ratcheted higher to 101.65 due to the rise in Nikkei-225 index, which rose by 89 points to 15416, following the rally in U.S. stock markets. Bids are now located at 101.50-40 and more at 101.30 with stops only seen below 101.20.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 101.80-85 and more at 102.00.

BOJ reported that firms forecast inflation of 1.5 percent in a year, unchanged from three months ago.
Japanese companies see prices rising 1.6 percent from a year earlier in three years, and gaining 1.7 percent in five years. Japanese companies forecast sustained price gains, providing support for the Bank of Japan's campaign to generate stable inflation.

Investors are focusing on the speech at 14:00GMT by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen after saying last month U.S. interest rates will stay low for a 'considerable time.'


Data to be release of Wednesday:

Australia exports, imports, trade balance, U,K. Nationwide house price, Markit/CIPS construction PMI, euro zone GDP, producer prices, U.S. ADP employment, durable goods revised, factory orders, Canada manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.

Lahore FM 02:14 GMT July 2, 2014
gpaud

Thor,all very well here. Lovely to see your post !Will be posting more often here onwards.

Gbpaud trade has already kicked inwith suddenly ballooning trade deficit,i guess first of mny,when the currencies balon out of control in somewhat economic lowing circumstances then deficits canbecome a regular feature.

Let us see if we get more telltales of an aud slump soon,pricewise and otherwise.

Brock Thor 00:16 GMT July 2, 2014
gpaud

Hey FM
Great to see you post.!
Missed your expertise.

Hope all is good friend.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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