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Forex Forum Archive for 07/04/2014

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GVI Forex john 22:01 GMT July 4, 2014
U.S. Economy Turning?: Outlook- July 6, 2014

Non-Farm Payrolls Beat
on Thursday The U.S. FINALLY saw a much stronger than forecast increase in non-farm payrolls. Employment jumped by 288K in the month, as foreshadowed by the ADP Private Jobs data on Wednesday. While this was positive news for the Fed, there is no way the central bank would even CONSIDER altering...

U.S. Economy Turning?: Outlook- July 6, 2014

eu pat 16:40 GMT July 4, 2014

Entry: Target: Stop:

[email protected] 175.600

my private noncommercial facebook comunity page:

GVI Forex Blog 16:01 GMT July 4, 2014
Week Ahead
•Strong labour market report fuels US interest rate debate

•MPC meeting and Fed minutes provide limited focus for markets

•Downside risk to industrial production across Europe


GVI Forex Blog 15:40 GMT July 4, 2014
Global Markets News
In FX the overall tone was quiet but participants did push the EUR/USD lower to extend yesterday's post-payrolls dollar gains. Dealers and traders continue to use the time to debate whether central bankers in both developed and emerging economies were trying to talk down their currencies to make their economies more competitive US Market Update:

GVI Forex john 15:34 GMT July 4, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 15:18 GMT July 4, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

European Markets were in a mild risk-off posture Friday with U.S. markets closed for the Independence Day holiday today. The EURUSD was testing below the psychological 1.3600 level.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets fell broadly and sharply Yields on the European periphery are down as well. The German 10-yr bund was 1.25%, -5bp.
  • U.K. gilt  yields were lower.  The 10-yr gilt is 2.75% -1bp. Odds favor one +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.64%,  -1 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe ended slightly lower. U.S. share futures are closed for the holiday.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

Mtl JP 13:53 GMT July 4, 2014
Next week

on July 4th , allegedly, Americans are raising a drink in a toast to Thomas Jefferson - author of the Declaration - in celebration of the colonists secession from the British empire and to the "full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do." that the secessionists have declared upon themselves

HK [email protected] 13:35 GMT July 4, 2014
Next week


SaaR KaL 13:27 GMT July 4, 2014
Next week

US MKT Closed today?

Mtl JP 13:19 GMT July 4, 2014
Global Markets News

Spitting in BIS' face , Central Bankers Fire Back at Their Own Club Over Bubbles - bbrg

Mtl JP 13:15 GMT July 4, 2014
Global Markets News

to answer my Qtn ...

.."many central bankers in both developed and emerging economies are trying to talk down their currencies to make their economies more competitive."... - bbrg
“Among big central banks, it’s not too well looked upon to say you’re going to set policy around the currency,” Greg Moore, a senior strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Toronto, said by phone on June 25. “So the way central-bank governors talk about it is how the currency influences the economy.”

Mtl JP 13:04 GMT July 4, 2014
Global Markets News

The Riksbank lowered its main interest rate by half a percentage point to 0.25 percent, matching a record low from 2010, and predicted no increases until the end of next year. The deposit rate went to minus 0.5 percent, a month after the European Central Bank cut its equivalent below zero. - bbrg
post too late to play SEK, just fwiw

Mtl JP 12:25 GMT July 4, 2014


USDYEN x S&P has gone poof and been replaced by
usdyen x us 10-yr

note #2 / keep an eye out on the us 2yr going over 0.5%, so far a tuff resistance

Mtl JP 12:09 GMT July 4, 2014
Global Markets News

GVI Forex Blog 10:22 - missed mentioning Bank of Canada under Poloz.
Is there a ccy war going going?

GVI Forex john 11:39 GMT July 4, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Forex market from EUR Perspective. EURUSD Spot to 20-day average has flipped back negative. EUR changes on the day are mostly RED,

SaaR KaL 11:32 GMT July 4, 2014
Next week

GBPCHF is a great sell
day's range 1.5389 1.5226

USDCAD 1.0682 1.0598
I am still buying

SaaR KaL 11:25 GMT July 4, 2014
Next week

Day Trade levels
(Not sure guys)
EURUSD 1.3550 1.3690
Cable 1.71 to 1.72
USDJPY 101.50 102.4
USDCHF 0.8850 0.8970

GVI Forex john 11:24 GMT July 4, 2014
EURUSD vs 10-yr EZ (DE) less US Spread
EURUSD vs 10-yr EZ (DE) less US Spread. This is the relationship we all will be watching in coming months. It will be key to the EURUSD.

SaaR KaL 11:03 GMT July 4, 2014
Next week
Seems Like EURUSD is a pick Long again
from 1.3550 area to
Possible 1.3720
Anyone Buying?
I closed all my shorts

GVI Forex Blog 10:22 GMT July 4, 2014
Global Markets News
Currencies/Fixed Income: - Dealers pondered as the second half of 2014 trading got underway whether the USD had nowhere to go but higher following the stellar US jobs report for June . It appeared numerous other central banks (Riksbank, Norges Bank, ECB, BoJ, SNB and RBA appeared to be fighting for a weaker currency EU Market Update: No fireworks in quiet session with US market closed for holiday

syd sf 09:52 GMT July 4, 2014

saw the t/p @ 60 and selling at 70 and now came back in and bought @47

it is a highly confusing pattern tbh .. it is going to be a news driven market going forward.

stops I see on my book at 1.7045 - so I assume there will be continued buying on any dips ... selling I see 1.7195-05 for t/p for any buying in the mean time.

audusd and audnzd took out the t/p orders - but haven't seen any shorts go in as yet ... pretty sure we see 9290 at some point next week .. maybe bit more of a rally first.

anyway see what next week brings - gt

GVI Forex john 09:26 GMT July 4, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Markets are in a mild risk-off posture with U.S. markets closed for the Independence Day holiday today. The EURUSD is back testing below the psychological 1.3600 level.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are broady lower Yields on the European periphery are down as well. The German 10-yr bund is 1.27%, -3bp.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are lower.  The 10-yr gilt is 2.75% -1bp. Odds favor one +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.64%,  -1 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe  slightly lower. U.S. share futures are closed for the holiday.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

HK [email protected] 08:48 GMT July 4, 2014

With a bullish outer week of the pair, traders will have to bring it into account.

HK [email protected] 08:45 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

Significant support Res. levels for AUD logner term.






*0.8665(close to Jan. 2014 LOW)

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:28 GMT July 4, 2014
AceTrader Jun 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

04 Jul 2014 07:33GMT

USD/JPY - ... Japan's giant public pension fund (GPIF) enjoyed another strong financial year as domestic stocks rose, but its performance was marred by a pullback in the January-March quarter - just as the fund was cautiously beginning to seek better returns on its equity investments.

The $1.24 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund, the world's largest, generated an 8.6 percent return in the year through March, its third-best ever, helped by a weaker yen and a 47 percent jump in Japanese equities, the fund reported on Friday.

GPIF posted a loss of 0.8 percent, however, in the final three months, its first loss in seven quarters, as the Nikkei stock average slipped 9 percent.

Japan had appointed Hosomizo as new chief financial regulators.

Earlier today, the greenback rallied to as high as 102.27 y'day due to the release of much stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data which came in at 288,000 versus economists' forecast of 213,000. The U.S. unemployment rate also fell to 6.1% in June from previous reading of 6.3% in May, however, profit-taking in Asian morning capped dlr's upside somewhat. Offers are now tipped at 102.20/25 n more at 102.30 with stops building up abv 102.35 res. On the downside, bids are located at 102.10-00 n more at 101.90-80.

Nikkei-225 index currently rose by 97 points to 15445 following the rally in U.S. stock markets (Dow Jones index rose by 92 points to a record close at 17068. Trading is likely to be thin today as there is no major economic data coming out due to U.S. Independence Day Holiday.

eu pa 08:15 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

Read advice of bank advisers is the best way how to lose your money.
I never read any analyze from bank, world famous trades etc.
It is only one right way to trade...own skills ..eventually discuss with a few good trades with own opinion ideas..and make trade myself

HK [email protected] 08:07 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

AUD below 0.91 will be very hard to reach.

Beware of bank advisers!!!

london red 08:03 GMT July 4, 2014
watch 50 and 40 on downside, while above 65 suggests another run at 1.7203 res.

london red 07:59 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

10 week ma (9335) is the one im watching with 9323 last line before 91xx is suggested as a poss multi day support. should stayed capped by 9400 if the 10 week is to given. If not then looks like 9550/80.

nw kw 07:57 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

BG Group’s enormous QGC LNG plant on Curtis Island, QLD ( worth $20 billion AUD on target to become Queensland’s first LNG exporter) is due for completion as early as 2014.
Chevron Corp’s Gorgon project on WA’s Barrow Island, (worth $52 billion AUD and predicted to be the biggest resources development ever in Australia) on schedule to commence by 2015.
Santos Ltd joint venture with Conoco Phillips and Origin Energy Ltd (adjacent to BG Group’s plant on Curtis Island, QLD) both on target to ship Australian LNG by 2015.
The Ichthys project by Japanese Inpex Corp of Japan in Australia’s NT is expected to create thousands of jobs and is well on track.
Chevron is also operating the Wheatstone development in WA.
The colossal FLNG Prelude project by Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) is moving ahead with pace with plans on track for Australia’s largest floating LNG ship to produce gas offshore, and hundreds of jobs in LNG Australia, starting in 2017.

Lahore FM 07:55 GMT July 4, 2014
Only Way For USD Is Up -Trader - -- Market Talk

Syd dear,thanx for your untiring posting work!

nw kw 07:55 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

no aud has to much usd it cant drop fast or banks are f

Lahore FM 07:54 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

Imho,0.91 is one pojnt of inflexion on the way down for audusd.if that goes then even 0.88 is not low enough for the drop that started a day ago.

Syd 07:53 GMT July 4, 2014
Only Way For USD Is Up -Trader - -- Market Talk
With the Riksbank, Norges Bank, ECB, BoJ, SNB and RBA all now fighting for a weaker currency, the USD has nowhere to go but higher, says Citi's G10 spot trader. He notes that while the currency moves seen after Thursday's double event of NFP's and the ECB were fairly small, USD bulls have been given a new lease of life and he feels the market is now preparing itself for a sustainable trend higher for the USD.

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:50 GMT July 4, 2014
AceTrader Jul 4: Daily Market Outlook on EUR/USD


Update Time: 04 Jul 2014 00:34 GMT

Euro's intra-day sell off to 1.3596 in New York morning after release of robust U.S. jobs report confirms recent erratic rise from June's near 4-month trough at 1.3503 has made a top earlier at 1.3700 on Tuesday and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.3577, however, anticipated near term oversold condition is expected to keep price above 1.3537/42 and bring subsequent rebound.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3643 (Wed's low, now res) would dampen present bearish scenario on the euro and risk stronger gain toward 1.3664 but 1.3700 should remain intact and yield further 'choppy' trading.

HK [email protected] 07:47 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

nw kw 07:39 GMT

So you think LNG will save the AUD from deep drop?

nw kw 07:39 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

Could Australia be in for another resources led surge in exports as we move towards 2015? Absolutely – as the surge in LNG in Australia continues, we could very likely cement our nation as the biggest shipper of LNG in the world.

The commodities “story isn’t over, it’s just changing its shape,” said Paul Bloxham, chief Australia economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Sydney and a former Reserve Bank of Australia economist.

nw kw 07:26 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

aud LNG plants are exporting now, reported to move to nzd planning LNG HUBS //SO IS CAD and drilling for supply is firing a big boom

nw kw 07:19 GMT July 4, 2014
They say!

strong yen cat aud gbp but nzd forest wear down but rebounded

HK [email protected] 07:14 GMT July 4, 2014
They say!

Median estimates in Bloomberg strategist surveys agree with Macquarie that the yen will weaken to 110 per dollar by year-end, from 104.35 as of 7:51 a.m. in London. The analysts are more optimistic on Australia’s dollar, predicting it will slide to 87 U.S. cents, from 89.31 today, while Macquarie sees a decline to 82 cents by Dec. 31.

HK [email protected] 07:12 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD to the toilet? $0.88 by year-end.

The Australian dollar – which appeared to be on course for a return to parity with the U.S. dollar just days ago – is set to end the year below $0.90, say strategists.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens is partially responsible. His comment Thursday that the Aussie is "overvalued, and not just by a few cents," sent the currency as low as $0.9329, down from $0.9439 earlier in the day. It edged up slightly to $0.9353 on Friday.

"The RBA is going to continue to jawbone the currency lower. If you've got a central bank talking down the currency, this is likely to discourage foreign investors from investing in Australian assets," David Forrester, currency strategist at Macquarie told CNBC. He sees the currency falling to $0.88 by year-end.


eu pat 06:30 GMT July 4, 2014
Buy usdx
Entry: Target: Stop:

Continue buy USD..
Facebook: Forex and life is my new private place for my thougts about forex and life . I want to share my ideas there with my friends..It is no commercial. I like to see you opinion abov life and forex, my friends..

GVI if it is a wrong post, delete it please...

Syd 06:23 GMT July 4, 2014
DB: Fed Could Correct Dovish Stance Earlier Than Expected -- Market Talk
The U.S. Federal Reserve could correct its dovish stance on monetary policy earlier than is expected, says Deutsche Bank. In the medium term, USD/JPY could rise beyond 110 with the TOPIX hitting 1500 in anticipation of higher U.S. interest rates, strategist Taisuke Tanaka says. USD/JPY is now at 102.02 and TOPIX is at 1284, just short of a new 2014 high. Amid risk-off sentiment in 1H 2014, Japanese equities, which offered substantial room for profit taking, were sold down to undervalued levels, he notes. But with U.S. GDP indicating growth of more than 3% for the July-September quarter and recent jobs data looking strong, the Fed will likely become more hawkish, he says, which will help Japanese stocks.

Syd 06:19 GMT July 4, 2014
AUD/USD Vulnerable to Further Selling -- Market Talk
AUD/USD Vulnerable to Further Selling -- Market Talk

After breaking the uptrend line yesterday at 0.9365 AUD/USD bounced off the June 18 trough at 0.9322 aided by the 50-day moving average at 0.9335. But it is finding resistance from the former uptrend line--now at 0.9370. Daily MACD turned bearish yesterday and stochastics and RSI have further downside potential after peaking with bearish divergence. After Thursday's strong U.S. jobs data U.S. dollar strength added to downward pressure from RBA Gov. Steven's comment that "investors are underestimating the likelihood of a significant fall in the Australian dollar" and the RBA still has "ammunition" to cut rates. Still, in a world of extremely low interest rates and volatility AUD/USD will attract buyers on dips--particularly while iron ore is recovering from the June low of US$89.00. Support lies at 0.9200--the May 2 low and the 200-day moving average. AUD/USD last 0.9363.

GVI Forex Blog 04:44 GMT July 4, 2014 Reply   
**Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.7%, S&P/ASX +0.6%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Jun S&P500 -0.1% at 1,976 ***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** Aug go Asian Market Update: Asian markets higher following strong US performance; US unemployment lowest in 6 year - Source

GVI Forex Blog 03:28 GMT July 4, 2014 Reply   
The US NFP report turned out to be a positive surprise, confirming the ongoing recovery in

Morning Briefing : 04-Jul-2014 -0327 GMT

Dillon AL 03:21 GMT July 4, 2014

a pic says a thousand words

Mtl JP 02:59 GMT July 4, 2014

Yellen s been clear she is not in a hurry to be raising the rate.

Poloz is looking like some stupid chimpanzee surprised that his currency cad$ devaluation tactic has stalled

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:39 GMT July 4, 2014
AceTrader Jul 4: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today -EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

04 Jul 2014 02:13GMT

EUR/USD - ... Despite yesterday's brief bounce to 1.3664 at European open, renewed selling interest there knocked price lower n euro nose-dived to an intra-day low at 1.3596 after dovish comments from ECB's president Draghi who said that take-up of the TLTRO could reach EUR 1 trillion. Selling interest is now tipped at 1.3620-25 n more at 1.3635-40. On the downside, mixture of bids n stops is located at 1.3600 but some bids are noted at 1.3580-75.

ECB's Draghi announced that starting January 2015, the ECB will reduce the frequency of its policy meetings to every 6 weeks, allowing for the publication of minutes a few weeks later. He added that studies on ABS have intensified but stressed the need for unanimity among council members about the possible use of non-standard measures.

On the data front, Germany will release its industrial orders at 06:00GMT.

Yesterday, ECB's Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said, quote: 'only way to move from current low interest rates is to reinvigorate euro zone's productive potential; govts should not view period of low rates as an invitation to abandon fiscal prudence; states should stick to rules of new EU fiscal framework, not stretch these to point where framework is discredited; confident euro zone banks with strong business models will make full use of TLTROS.'

Quoting the statement from ECB's policymaker Jens Weidmann :'ultra-loose monetary policy leads, over time, to financial stability risks; concerned that low rates are easing pressure on govts to reform, consolidate budgets; important to stress that ECB will not delay a normalisation of monetary policy out of regard for state finances; for the euro zone, monetary policy has made its contribution to deliver price stability; will take a while for June policy measures to take full effect; I regard it as wrong to speculate about further measures immediately after June decisions.'

Data to be released on Friday:

Germany industrial orders, U.K. Halifax house prices. U.S. independence day holiday.

syd sf 02:26 GMT July 4, 2014

all things considered another pretty ordinary Asian Session.

gbp is probably the most interesting .. whether 70-75 can cap and run back to 20-30 ... or it runs up to 1.7205

I suppose it depends on how much wood there is to chop in eur/gbp ... the CAD stuff just has no interest in this time zone today... they are all flat... had some potential earlier.

Montreal Hesham 00:58 GMT July 4, 2014

As soon as the interst rate increases the CAd will go down

Mtl JP 00:23 GMT July 4, 2014

Hesham Janet is on record to keep interest near zero for a long time yet ; r u expecting Poloz to smack Canadian rate soon to try to bring cad$ down ?

HK [email protected] 00:05 GMT July 4, 2014
USD: Start of a secular bull market???

The most important to follow carefully now on, is whether or not USD enters a SECULAR BULL MARKET.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
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Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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